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  1. 5 points
    bootstrap

    I Look Back Now and Wonder

    I wasn't sure where to put this, so the powers that be can move it if they see fit. I put it here for anyone who is just starting out and wondering what it really takes to become part of that elite club of profitable traders. I lurk on several trading forums. I join a few and make a few posts. One thing that I rarely see is the painful path one took to becoming successful. So for all you beginners here is what becoming successful took. For my fellow brethren that are already in the club have a good laugh. The markets had always lured me as a kid. I would read the paper and make predictions. Sometimes they were right; sometimes not. Then one day I got that famous commodity-trading flyer, sent my money off and took the plunge. My first stab at trading was commodities and I started with $5k in 1991. I was using the strategy as outlined by the guru. The account was gone within a few months. Well that didn’t work. I thought, people do this everyday and make money why not me. So off to the library. I read every book the Memphis library had on trading and investing. I paper traded the strategies I found while I built my bankroll back up. I learned exits, set-ups, position, expectancy, market psychology, and portfolio management. I soon realized that I was reading the same thing over and over no matter which book I checked out. Time to build my strategy. I am ready to do this. I bought a new computer, Metastock Pro 6.0, and opened an account with $30k. Its 1995, and this is my shot. By 1997 I was toast again. The family life went to hell in a hand basket, and I thought I could trade through the difficult times. The result was an account with a balance of $2500. Back to the drawing board. Took care of the personal stuff. Lived like a monk raising capital. Worked nights and watched the market during the day. Took a second job on the weekends to raise more money. Then one day out of the blue, the little red and green candles started to make sense. I saw patterns develop over and over in the same spots. I placed a trade and made a profit. But I had done this before. I removed the MACD from my charts. Placed another trade and made a profit. Maybe I am on to something. Removed the channel indicator that I stumbled across. I could still see the action and new what the MACD was doing and where the action was in the channel without them even being on the chart. I even stopped drawing trend lines. It was just me and the screen. I planned every trade. I knew exactly when, where, and why I entered and exited. I was patient. I became a predator. Lurking and waiting. I took every shot the market gave me. If it started to go wrong, I got out quick and waited. If the market did not give me an opening, oh well. There is always tomorrow. By the fall of 1999, I was consistently profitable and have been ever since. For those that are waiting for the sales pitch, there isn’t one. For those that are waiting for me to expose some great secret, well there isn’t one of those either. What I will give you are a few simple pointers that I learned the hard way. And the sad part is, most will stilll learn these the hardway. 1)Take everything you read with a grain of salt. That includes this post. 2)Never pay for a system. It is just not that easy. 3)If something comes up in your life that is distracting, stop trading. 4)Plan every aspect of your trade down to the smallest detail, and plan for every possible outcome. 5)Develop your own strategy. Don’t let someone tell you that you can’t trade a simple moving average if you truly believe you can. 6)Test the strategy in the market that you will be trading. If you like the results, trade it in another totally unrelated market and see if it still holds up. 7)Paper trading is ok, but there is nothing that truly tests the strategy like hard earned cash. 8)You will have to make sacrifices in order to make it. I still do. In the middle of my learning period I was working 18 hours a day during the week and 12 on the weekend. 9)You are responsible for everything when it comes to trading. That includes stop running, bad fills, limit moves, your PC crashing. I mean everything. See #4 10)And last but probably most important, don’t be afraid of failure. Just do like Edison and go, “Well that didn’t work”. Good trading to you all.
  2. 3 points
    LindsayBev

    Best Candlestick Book / PDF??

    Donald, here is the pdf version of the book, if you are interested. While a bit "salesman-like" in its approach (all of what he claims cannot possibly be true or it would be the Holy Grail), it was packed full with pictures, commentary and helpful information. Enjoy. Profitable_Candlestick_Trading-HERE.pdf
  3. 3 points
    rangerdoc

    Wyckoff Resources

    I'm not one to make a habit of bumping old threads, but based on earlier discussion, this is clearly the best place to post a link to the original Wyckoff course: The Richard D Wyckoff Method of Trading and Investing in Stocks: A Course of Instruction in Stock Market Science and Technique. Wyckoff - Course.pdf
  4. 2 points
    bootstrap

    Why Screen Time Is Important

    Here is something that should get pretty lively.. Since everyone keeps telling you that screen time is important, there has to be something to it. But nobody is telling you what you should be looking for. What is it going to teach you? There has to be something that those who do this for a living see that you don’t. Well there is. And just like the magician that exposed the secrets to magic tricks on national TV, I am going to tell you what we see. But before I do remember one thing. Take everything you read in a forum or book, or hear from a guru or in a seminar with a grain of salt. Question everything. Only when you prove it to yourself, does it become the rule. What I am about to share can be found on thousands of sites and in countless books. If you have done any research at all, you have come across Dr. Elder’s triple screen, or some permutation of it. You understand the principles behind using multiple frames of reference. What has most likely not been explained to you is why it works or how to apply it correctly. In most cases you are only given a single example. Single example you say? Yes, when most first stumble across using multiple time frames, they follow the rules of: Use the upper time frame to identify the trend, the middle time frame for the set-up, and the lowest time frame to enter. If by chance you are not familiar with the triple screen just goggle “triple screen +elder”. Trading instruments exhibt three different types of market action in any given frame of reference. You use multiple frames of reference (i.e. Time or ticks) to identify the current market environment. These markets are: Trending, Trading, and Volatile. Why screen time is so important is that all instruments do not exhibit the characteristics of Trending in the upper time frame, Trading in the middle, and Volatile in the lower at all times. They can be in any one of the following combinations at any given time: Trending/Trading/Volatile Trending/Volatile/Trading Trading/Volatile/Trending Trading/Trending/Volatile Volatile/Trending/Trading Volatile/Trading/Trending Or any one of 84 possible market combinations if you consider Volatile/Volatile/Volatile. Like the major pairs in Forex, the combinations I listed are what I consider the major market combinations. The elusive secret that you are looking for, and what screen time teaches you, is to identify which market combination you are in and then how to trade what you see. Or better yet, when to stay on the sidelines. Each combination requires a different strategy, and some may not be tradeable at all. If you are trading across a broad range of instruments, you only need to master one. The fewer instruments you trade, the more market combinations you may have to learn. But you have to learn them one at a time and only add the next one once the first is mastered. But you ask what about Trending/Trending/Trading? Or how about Volatile/Volatile/Volatile? Or if I use Weekly/Daily/Hourly I get Trending/Trading/Volatile but if I use Daily/Hourly/Min I get Trading/Volatile/Trending. One step at a time grasshopper. One step at a time. As I mentioned there are 84 possible combinations. Multiply this across thousands of instruments and countless frames of reference, and I hope you get the picture. You do not have to learn them all. You only have to learn the few that fit you, your chosen instrument and frames of reference. Find the market combinations that are most prevalent and learn to trade only those. This is why it takes screen time to learn to do this, and why each trader is different. It is also why three traders in the same instrument will be doing something different. Trader A will scalp, trader B will be a buyer, and trader C will be seller, and they all make money. They are using different frames of reference and therefore see a different market
  5. 2 points
    DbPhoenix

    Trading The Wyckoff Way

    Put simply, support is the price at which those who have enough money to make a difference are willing to show their support by retarding, halting, and reversing the decline by buying. Resistance is the price at which those who have enough money to make a difference attempt to retard, halt, and reverse a rise by selling. Whether one calls this money professional or big or smart or institutional or crooked or manipulative or (fill in the blank) is irrelevant. If repeated attempts to sell below this support level are met by buying which is sufficient to turn price back, these little reversals will eventually form a line, or zone. Ditto with resistance. A swing high or low represents a point at which traders are no longer able to find trades. Whether that point represents important support or resistance will be seen the next time traders push price in that direction. But everyone knows this point, even if they aren't following a chart. It exists independently of the trader and his lines and charts and indicators and displays. It is the point beyond which price could not go. Hence its importance, both to those who want to see price move higher and those who don't. The first two posts to this thread address these matters, as do others here and there. However, finding S&R in real charts in real time takes more than just a couple of posts. But one must understand the nature of support -- and resistance -- itself before he begins to look for it. Otherwise, he will find what he thinks are S&R in some very peculiar places. Before coming to any conclusions about what “works” or “doesn’t work”, and thus does or does not provide an edge, one ought to keep in mind that a given event -- such as price seemingly finding support or resistance at a trendline (or moving average, candlestick, Pivot Point, Fib level or whatever) -- may be only incidental to what is truly providing that support or resistance. A fundamental misunderstanding of how "indicators" are calculated and what they're supposed to do can lead to all sorts of off-task behavior. We think we see the indicators indicating something, or not, and believe we have made an important discovery. We then devote our efforts to improving the hit rate and the probability of whatever it is we think the indicator is indicating when our efforts ought to be focused on determining whether or not the indicator is actually indicating what we think it's indicating. In most if not all cases, it isn't. Consider the virgin being tossed into the volcano: sometimes it results in a great crop, sometimes it doesn't. Maybe tossing her in earlier or later will change the probability of a healthy crop. Maybe two virgins are better than one. Maybe six. Maybe tall virgins are more effective than short ones. And surely age is important. But does the robustness of the crop really have anything to do with tossing the virgin into the volcano in the first place? The money under the pillow is not evidence of the existence of the tooth fairy, and spring will arrive regardless of whether the virgin is tossed into the volcano or not. (Db)
  6. 1 point
    samuel78

    New To The Community

    Hi, all I am Samuel new to the forum and very much in love with the forum Hoping to make some new friends here. Thank you.
  7. 1 point
    zdo

    ,,,just Sayin...

    Reflexivity So let’s go ‘beyond’ ... Yet if you review his trades, including normal trades and his outlier ‘country killer’ trades, and dig a little bit, rather than developing a knack at ‘narrative trading’ it turns out in each instance he had agents providing inside knowledge previous to the emergence of the situation, and he then spent considerable resources buying influence to manipulate each situation to the trade’s advantage. Rich and famous, he “felt obligated” to write books about it, but (What I’m just sayin’ is) - he is lying in his books. If some permutation of the concepts have not already occurred to someone engaging in narrative trading, the term and concepts of Reflexivity may help one conceptualize narrative trading better and maybe even help to participate more fully in the middle of moves... but they will not help in (instigating) and participating at the beginning... or in pressing and assuring that the outcomes go to extremes ... and the painful truth is many trend traders go broke 'successfully' participating in the middle of moves.
  8. 1 point
    Yeah! That's my pleasure
  9. 1 point
    ethanscott

    Market Volatility.

    I agree. Share prices change because of supple and demand. If more people want to buy a stock (demand) than sell it (supply), then the price moves up. Conversely, if more people wanted to sell a stock than buy it, there would be greater supply than demand, and the price would fall.
  10. 1 point
    Gamera

    Testing Times.

    Actions for the 31st. Volume seemed to be all over the place along with the PA.
  11. 1 point
    BBBBrian_1

    Brian's investment record

    3 samples from record: AXP First acquired 1 or 2 years ago, for about $ 77.74. A Warren Buffet favorite, with good financials. Sold June 29 2018 after putting a sellstop order on it, an idea from day trading, and Wyckoff, which I learned about on this forum. Profit $ 1822.97, cost of $ 6770.5 or 26.92% CNK- a questionable acquisition, made after selling WFM, just prior to the Amazon announcement ( doink!), which announcement jacked the price to $ 42. Profits were to be had, but, riding the escalator, as it were, I simply watched it go up and down. " But theatre attendance is increasing!" Good luck with that one. https://www.the-numbers.com/market/ XHE healthcare etf, health equipment, I don't know when I originally purchased this, but mI just sold it, again after hitting a sells top, for a $ 3,149.45 profit, or 50.32% All non taxable since this is an IRA account. I am now siting in 90% cash waiting out d.t. Rump hysterics and phony trade wars; using simulators to see how it might go with " active " trading", where I wake up enough to smell the roses when a stock gets to a high point. While I feel fortunate to have a gain, it took a long time and a lot of heartache, watching values tumble and dip, especially UNP and AXP. I left a lot of profit on the table. I am reading Wyckoff now, and dB, trying to learn and follow these ideas. Brian
  12. 1 point
    Learn to identify momentum and scalp. If you need leverage, trade futures or options.
  13. 1 point
    WildPete

    Reading Charts in Real Time

    Hi folks...Another shot at this GBPUSD long (if triggered). God Bless.. WP
  14. 1 point
    WildPete

    Reading Charts in Real Time

    Stopped for the full -1R. God Bless.. WP
  15. 1 point
    WildPete

    Reading Charts in Real Time

    Adjusting Stop to 1.3202...just below entry.
  16. 1 point
    Eavoldisely

    10 Rules to Successfully Read Stock.

    Stock trading is less risky than the forex trading but it has slow returns due to less liquidity. If you are a patient and long-term trader then stocks are the best option for you to trade in. Am I right in this regard? Stay blessed stock lovers!
  17. 1 point
    Guess I would add to have a trading journal. Which helps you have a better understanding of the other rules and help closing out emotions.
  18. 1 point
    The answer to this question is relative. I mean, it depends upon you. It depends how quickly you understand the market and the company in which you invest. If you study the life of successful traders, it is analyzed that it took them years.
  19. 1 point
    Agreed, sometimes less is more, and unfortunately 1+1 in trading is not always 2
  20. 1 point
    CrazyCzarina

    Forex Trading Vs Stock Trading

    Your success depends upon the trading strategy being adopted by you. It is not only important but absolutely necessary that your trading strategy must have inbuilt strengths to make you a successful trader.
  21. 1 point
    Oh you have! Glad you liked it, and good luck to us then. I have learned a lot from them so far. Be patient and keep learning!
  22. 1 point
    zdo

    ,,,just Sayin...

    ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oBmp8OOJ8sE Everything to the right on your chart is free information
  23. 1 point
    mitsubishi

    ,,,just Sayin...

    https://www.indy100.com/article/mum-daughter-beautiful-sexism-make-up-boys-girls-8327241 Seven years ago, Claire O'Reilly gave birth to her first daughter. Having raised two boys already, she thought herself an expert parent. But raising her daughter taught her an important lesson. From the start, Claire found that people treated her daughter differently to her two boys. You’re kidding! You mean there’s a difference between males and females? We can’t have that these days can we? She explained: The midwives who delivered my sons pronounced them strong, sturdy lads. But Annie — at a massive 9lb 10oz, far heavier than either of her brothers — was first called ‘beautiful’ by the midwife when she was less than a minute old. If only millions of little girls started behaving like chimpazees as well ,things could finally feel a lot more normal around here. This made Claire realise that raising a young woman to be self-confident and independent comes with a whole host of unique challenges. That’s nothing compared to the unique challenge you neo liberal fascists face in convincing the rest of us to go along with your insanity Btw will you get a sponsorship fee for mentioning ‘Lego’? Because of this, Claire has vowed never to call her daughter beautiful. Imagine if you were described as beautiful occasionally….why it would make you suicidal wouldn’t it? It would make you want to disfigure yourself so that fat ugly lesbian SJW snowflake nazis and the useful idiots behind them could feel better about themselves. Instead, she opts to shower her in compliments about her ability at sport, her kindness to animals or her dedication in practising the piano. While Claire's parenting ethos may sound extreme, the facts appear to back up her belief that girls face disproportionate pressure to look attractive from a young age. In 2016, a study by Girlguiding UK revealed that a third of seven-to-ten year olds believe that they are judged on their appearance and a quarter feel the need to be perfect. Well, based on that, let’s re-engineer humanity Girlguiding... hahahahaha. I bet 100% of them feel the need to continue life as a female. So while never complimenting girls on their looks may seem a step too far, perhaps we could all do with distributing praise more evenly. You think it ‘may seem a step too far’? But what would make you want to concede that? Coukd it be that deep down you know 2+2 will never be 5, no matter how much your masters demand it? I would have thought transgendering infants was a step too far. I would have thought removing children from da parents who object to having their children butchered under da global social engineering programme were steps that were da steps too far. I woukd have thought believing one word in this fruitcake article is true may seem like a step too far. I woud have thought describing yourself as a journalist was a step too far. I would have thought calling your 'newspaper' The 'Independent' was a step too far. Just sayin’
  24. 1 point
    zak.gibb

    Forex Trading on Smartphone / Iphone

    I've been using my iPhone 7 since the release of this phone. So I was trading for about a year now, and I never had a problem using my broker's mobile platform.
  25. 1 point
    mitsubishi

    ,,,just Sayin...

    Bush- 'Near perfect' Meaning- 98% useless A 95% success rate was claimed at the time, with then President George Bush claimingthat the Patriot's record was "near perfect". Over the following year however, the US Army lowered this estimate to 79% over Saudi Arabian skies and 40% over Israel. A later report by the General Accounting Office concluded that Patriot missiles destroyed only 9% of the Scuds they attempted to engage. The Israeli Defense Force calculated the hit rate at just 2%. https://russia-insider.com/en/major-fail-why-most-those-tomahawks-never-hit-their-targets-syria/ri23177 Scroll down to the photo if you want to see what the pigs in Animal Farm look like these days. These guys actually make the Nazis look pretty. Dumb, ugly, braindead fuckheads. Probably the gayest psychos in all of world history. Still, if you need to spend billions of dollars on murdering innocent defensless citizens, then these are the go to experts.
  26. 1 point
    JohnyIve, Please design and write us "some tips, or links for beginners". Thanks
  27. 1 point
    zdo

    Why Buy Trading Education?

    Thanks for the text. We would appreciate a post. Here’s a sample (of size, not quality ). By the time you are ‘mature’ (maturity can come at any age) enough to trade, you have typically completed standardized ‘education’ and should drop the model asap. In other words, conventional education model will not be effective for learning in trading and seeking a general education in trading, whether curriculum based or not, is a waste of time and of whatever costs are incurred. Instead, anyone ready for trading should also be ready for SELF education. Basically , to really thrive as a trader, I blve you move beyond the currently failing ‘educational’ paradigm founded on the premise that humans can only make sense of the world via communication with each other. On the objective knowledge front that means seeking out only the specific information about instruments, data, exchanges, transactions, orders, etc etc you personally need to fill gaps in your understanding. The beginning trader typically only has about 3 really (seemingly) ‘stupid‘ questions. Ask them. Get it over with. The rest of things are easy to access and learn. You don’t need no fkn ‘education’ in it. On the ‘sychological’ front, that means studying the opportunities and limitations of your own neurological and temperamental tendencies, your sympathetic and parasympathetic balance and tendencies, your own limbic system, and the degrees to which you are susceptible to each trading ‘bias’ (see Daniel Kahneman, etc.)..., your desires and what you do with them, etc. etc. It takes deep self-study. Reading about, taking courses, or even getting degrees in psychology won’t help you a fkn bit. On the methods front, that means getting in the cockpit and getting real experience with real money so you will actually learn what methods best suit your true nature. Do that before any outside training. Once you have almost mastered your method then you will also know what exactly what you need to work on. Get sufficient experience in your own best method(s), then seek an expert in that method for further increases in leverage. With trading educators there is no transference of ability or capacity. As I’ve said many times now, a teacher can never really teach you his method because there is simply too much differences between your perceptual maps and cognitive processes and his. He will be unconsciously competent at things that he will never be able to ‘share’ with you, etc etc. Wycoff could not teach you wycoff, etc. Their students can certainly not teach you wycoff, elliot, whoever. etc. Trust serendipity / synchronicity -"when the student is ready, the teacher will appear". ‘Education’ becomes a useless relic. The ‘voice of trading’ IS trading education that says you need to move more and more into just running scripts instead of ‘playing’ at trading ‘creatively’ . If you think you’re the special exception that can pull off changing yourself to match up with a ‘system’, which likely you do if you’re reading this, go for it - odds be damned. Fail forward as fast as you can. Maybe then you’ll realize you need to get beyond ‘education’. Maybe it will dawn on you that the ‘voice of trading’ has vast areas that nothing is allowed to be spoken about. But, YOU need not to wait until old ‘voice of trading’ deteriorates completely and new media, etc. emerges. Sorry I don’t have time to be queer this up or make it gender indeterminate for our precious ‘student’ snowflakes... or to be very respectful. Bluntly - if you have to be ‘educated’, you’re not ready to trade.
  28. 1 point
  29. 1 point
    No seller coming on oil. Buyers building long positions.
  30. 1 point
    minoo

    Futures Day Trading Tutorial Videos

    These three videos remain very popular ones from Jeff Quinto on CME site and many have requested me to re-post the expired links in the first thread of this Post Please check below the new links for the Videos The Main Page at CME where the Booklet & Videos are Jeff Quinto's Theory of Futures Trading - CME Group Three Futures Day Trading Tutorial Videos by Jeff Quinto & CMEGroup Essential straight talk by an Veteran Trader & Mentor Developing Your Trading Strategy Theory of futures trading and provide a guide that will help you get started. Developing Your Trading Strategy - CME Group Building Your Trading Plan Insight into the way professional traders set realistic goals and track performance. Building Your Trading Plan - CME Group The Importance of Simulated Trading Simulated trading can be the key to your trading success. The Importance Of Simulated Trading - CME Group Thanks for all the appreciation and keeping this Thread Alive Enjoy Minoo
  31. 1 point
    johnnydaymon

    TTM Wave a B C Indicator Code

    Here you go Derek !, the function and A,B,C Function - mbC.txt TTM Wave A.txt TTM Wave B.txt TTM Wave C.txt
  32. 1 point
    I wanted a simple trading plan to follow. I thought I had one. The problem was It didn’t work as well as it should., Leaving aside the patience/discipline type issues what are we left with? Too much, that’s what we’re left with. At some point I began to realise that there were several useful character traits that I was not only failing to utilize, I was actively suppressing them. Does suppressing something, anything, sound like healthy activity to you? “try not to ‘fix’ it” I’m going to shock a few guys here. I have to tell you that after all these years I still don’t have a system that compels me to enter here, exit there. Did you notice the key word in that sentence? That’s because I’m not a rule based trader. I’m a trader. The rules are there to help me, not get in my way. OK, so now more experienced readers know (or think they know) where this is going- Discretionary Trading. A no go area for many. A big scary taboo subject that a lot of vested interests would like you to stay the hell away from. The scarecrows of the vendor industry prefer empty cliché’s like ‘Plan your trade, trade your plan’ Well, you’re going to find that difficult for a long time. The thing about scarecrows is they’re rooted to the spot. And the danger is you might get rooted there as well. The scarecrows have got a song they like to sing. In fact they’ve only got one song, it’s called The Gospel- A Traders Bible. And every line in that song is every cliché you ever heard. And the chorus goes like this: 90% of traders lose. I know most of you are hell bent on dotting all the eyes and crossing all the tees in your trading plan and a rule for every eventuality. The whole industry just loves it when you do that., you know why? because they can package something to cater for that desire. Next time you miss your entry by 1 tic and price takes off without you.. try not to ’fix’ it. Let’s call your trading plan -a sword, and the market -the battle. If every time your sword gets blunted in battle you feel compelled to go back to the drawing board and sharpen it, be aware that there’s a point beyond that process. What I’m saying is, there comes a time when the sword gets sharper in battle than it can ever be made on the drawing board. What do you do when you break one of your trading rules (yet again) and you lose money? 1- Put a little note on your trading screen: “Must remember to follow the rules no matter what” 2-’Improve’ the rules. 3- Take a closer look at someone else’s rules. 4- Take a closer look inside your head. You’ll probably have to work through that list in chronological order and get to number 4 before you can even put yourself in thinking outside the box mode. How do you know when you’re ready to go beyond? When you can swim, there’s not much point in staying in the shallow end. I was ready when I realised my discretionary decision making was working better than going back to the drawing board. My learning curve had taken longer because I thought I was being disciplined by not making discretionary decisions, when in fact, that belief was holding me back. The Key Point Here Not every trader should be making discretionary decisions, certainly not a new trader. You won’t have anywhere near enough experience to do it. But if it takes you 2 years to realise that it might become part of your trading plan, then that’s 2 years where you could have been working towards it. Here’s the biggest reason why ‘discretionary’ might be a no go area for you. You designed your trading plan with the express intent of ruling yourself as a trader out of the equation. You decided from the very start to be the passenger instead of the pilot. The key reason why discretionary worked for me was that I realised that my trading strategies were very compatible with me being the pilot…. or co-pilot if you like. A happy coincidence you might think. But I suspect that it was no coincidence. I suspect it might have something to do with having a certain personality trait- resistance to rigidly imposed, inflexible rules. If an aircraft is in trouble, who’s got the best chance of safely landing the plane, the passenger or the pilot? See 4 above- Take a closer look inside your head. Then take a look at trading 101. Don’t wait 2 years to realise you got it the wrong way round. Next- Discretionary Trading isn’t anything like you think it is. Actually, you and a lot of others who won’t admit it are doing it too. The biggest traders in the world make discretionary decisions. Today, as a usefool mental exercise I'll be counting from 649 backwards to the number 2.
  33. 1 point
    dbelov275

    Forex Trading Vs Stock Trading

    Thank you so much. it was really helpful. I think i should think about my level of risk tolerance before making a final decision.
  34. 1 point
    signalsprovider

    How to post a chart properly

    You are right Greed is bad in Forex....
  35. 1 point
    Patuca

    Beyond Taylor

    Here is the scoop on the ES. SEPT 6 2013 was the last trading session it was a BUY day in taylors cycle. You can short a buy day on a high made first like within first couple of hours of the open. You generally cover it the same day. If price drops fast (within the first 2 to 3 max hours of the open you would cover the short and look to go long if the low is trading near the low numbers. You then hold the long overnight or sell it on same day if the rally is hard and fast. But you can hold it overnight. The next tradingsession - sept 9 is a SELL day. On a sell day you sell any longs held overnight from the previous session (in this case sept 6th) and you can go long on any price below the low of the 6th if made within first two hours of the open. You then sell the long on the same day on any decent rally back towards the low of the 6th. So, to help us understand what would have happened on the 6th or how taylor would have traded the 6th. I know this is hindsight but to set the context i am going back to Friday 6th and pretend i was Taylor. My taylor numbers for 6th derived after the close of the 5th. Are thus: (note i arrive my taylor numbers different than he does..i will not divulge this info...but you could use his numbers i suppose: Possible high for 6th 1660 to 1665 Possible low 1643 to 1651 Now since the 6th is a buy day i know i can , according to Taylor's rules do either of the following: 1) short a high made first (first means within 2 hours max 3 hours of the open) 2) go long on a low made first 3) short, then cover, then long near taylors low numbers if both made within the first 2 to max 3 hours. I can then sell the long same day on any fast rally or hold for selling on the next day. 4) long, then sell long near taylor high numbers, then short near high numbers (if all wthin first two to three hours), and cover same day (do not carry short over to next day) So, how would taylor have trade last friday 6th? Please note i am using only RTH (regular trading hours O,H,L,C and ignoring night session..aftermarket prices) Ok the market opened on the 6th at 1659.25 (RTH). This is very close to the Taylor high numbers above. So, as Taylor what would i be anticipating? I would be looking to short (Rule #1 above). What would be my entry? Well, i would watch market .do a little tape reading to see if the market tops out within the high numbers above. When i see it stall i pounce and short. In this case it traded quickly up to 1661. I could short at 1661 or wait for the close of the bar (bar 8:35). That bar closed at at 1657 and was a bear bar with big tail on top indicating weakness. Taylor of course didn't have candlesticks so he probally would have shorted around 1659 to 1660. Lets say for some reason Taylor shorted at the close of bar 8:35 (1657). He would ride the rather fast decline down. He would be looking for the decline to stall around his low numbers. He would however watch the tape and if it went through his projected lows he would hold until the price quit declining. In this case it stopped declining on bar 9:00 at 1638.75. The next bar was a reversal bar indicating time to get out. So, at the latest taylor would be out on by the high of the reversal bar (1645) for a 12 point gain within the first hour of the open. Now before anyone protests; we know taylor did not look at 5 minute charts nor did he have candlesticks. Here, i am showing how i adapted taylors method to todays markets. Taylor used daily charts and timed his entries and exits with his numbers and fined tuned them with live tape reading. In todays markets i tape read off 5 minute charts with what i call "tape reading bar by bar". Somebody is probally having convulsions about now and saying that is not the tape. The tape is order flow..Dom..and Time and sales! Well, that is partially true but that sort of tape reading is mostly good for extreme scalping of 1 to 4 ticks. Taylor wasn't interested in that. He was after the big move of the day. I dont have the time to get into my style of tape reading but suffice it to say for now that a five minute chart s a pictorial view of the tape (order flow...dom...T&S ...transactions added together). Hence i coined the term (at least i have never heard it coined this before) "tape reading bar by bar". Now, back to the price action of sept 6. It is 9:05 CST and i taylor have made 12 points in the ES (of course we also know the ES didn't exist back then but play along with me here). Now according to my taylor rules for a BUY day (rule three) i can also go long because 2 hours have not yet gone by. So, i covered my short and immediatley take a long position for the tape says this is a reversal point (bar 9:05) so, i am now long at one tick above the high of the 9:05 bar (1645.25). I am looking for a rally and have nearly the complete trading session to get it as the market has only been open 35 minutes. Things are looking good. I look to exit on any good rally that heads back up towards my high numbers. My exit is flexible. I am even allowed to hold overnight and exit on monday sept 8 if i wish. However, if the rally is hard and fast then generally it is better to exit the same day. In this case it rallied back up fast and hard and then started going sideways. I decide to exit on bar 10:40 at 1658.75 as looks like we are range bound and i have a good profit already. So, i am out for another profit of 13.5 points. That makes 25.5 points for the day and it is 10:40. Time to go fishing....a little late maybe but the boat ride will be good. Ok ...so now we have seen how taylor would have traded fridays sept 6 price action. Now what about the next session sept 9 which is still future? I'll deal with that in another post before the market opens on sept 9, 2013 I am attaching a chart of sept 6th to help you visually see the above. This is for information only and not for real trading.. You could lose your money! Patuca
  36. 1 point
    My biggest loss was time. Time spent looking at the wrong things, time spent trading without a plan or without real understanding of what was important, time wasted on indicators, etc. then time unlearning all the nonsense I had picked up. The money comes back with interest, but you can't ever get that time back.
  37. 1 point
    clmacdougall

    Wyckoff Resources

    Thanks Db, I'll read through the thread for sure. All the best. Note: if anyone else has suggestions on resources, please let me know via PM and I'll add it/them to this thread. Thx
  38. 1 point
    Lets put it this if you're going to study the way of Gann you're better be able to put the Universe right in your head. Some are unable and quit farewell quickly because they do not have the soul for it. Infact if I ask you some of the deepest things in regards about the Universe will you be able to answer them. Can you look ahead of time and prior to the past and line it up to the present while gaining instant knowledge about the world we live in and the soul of the self. To study the way of Gann is the way of the " One"....do you know where the wind blows and whether the dew it comes from ? Do you what the Flower of Life means ? Do not use any kind of technical analysis unless you're saying they predict the future. Do not use any of any engineer or market analyst. Just do things in the seasons that come for specific things that exits in accordance to its nature. I am fighting real causes that lie deep hidden in this mind that you don't even know. To be artist knowing the beauty and the order as well the chaos.....do you know what soilder of God is in control of the order and chaos in this world ? You know who govern and hold the scales of the nations that decide if peace or war ensue ? To understand a single number and its vibration is the beginning to understanding anything on a Square of Nine Gann. Number is Vibration and it is our primodal existance in bondage to space and time in the flower of life.
  39. 1 point
    WHY?

    Beyond Taylor

    You are welcome. I have never tried adapting Taylor that way but my guess would be that it may work. I have just never been interested in investing in long term trends. I have adapted his method on intraday charts and seen some promising stuff down to 15 minute charts. Perhaps there is an element of human nature (as markets do reflect that) and perhaps Taylor discovered a manifestation of that in a 3 day cycle senario. Humphrey Neil in Tape reading and Market tactics said "the ticker tape is simply a record of human nature passing in review". I suppose if it does record human nature on a minute by minute basis it would also on a 5 min chart...15 minute..daily..or weekly..even monthly. The old timers of course read the tape from a ticker machine which served pretty much the same as a time and sales screen of this age but on a much slower basis. However, what I find interesting when these old timers discuss tape reading they do it from a chart and use a chart to show examples. Therefore, that makes me think; can the tape be read from a chart? That is, can the chart be considered a useful, grafical, representation of the ticker tape/time and sales and in itself be called "the tape". I decided it was so. Therefore, I call this classical tape reading. It really isn't the way they "read" the tape in those days but it is the way they "explained" the tape. See, if the ticker machine and time and sales can be seen as small increments of the tape why couldn't the tape be seen in a larger way such as a chart. After all, the chart is a representation of the ticker/time and sales. Cliff Drokes thought along these same lines and mentioned it in his book tape reading for the 21st century. A quick look at the old timers. Neil, Gann, Wycoff..their explanations of the tape were done in chart form. Actually, Tom Williams work does the same thing. It is reading the tape in the form of charts looking for institutional activity. So anyway, when I refer to reading the tape in some of my posts I mean all the way from the time and sales/DOM/Orderflow to a hybrid version of reading the tape from charts. Of course, the DOM/Orderflow/time and sale is basically meaningless when you are talking about a trend of several weeks. Gann (in The Truth of the Stock Market Tape) read and explained the tape for these sort of longer trends from a chart. The time and sale/DOM/orderflow have gotton so fast now days (unlike the ticker tape of days gone by) that with algos and all the HFT out there the tape moves faster and faster (even at a nano second level) that the human eye cannot pick it up. Some daytraders/scalpers have taken to using computers to help them read them tape and stitch back up big orders that have been broken up to hide footprints..etc. However, in the final analysis the product of the tape volume/price shows up on a chart. So, I have taken to reading the tape from the charts. I say all this about tape reading because it is my belief that to be able to use Taylor properly it will require not just a knowledge of the cycles ..etc... but also a knowledge of how to read the tape from a chart. That is how one is going to conclude if a decline has stopped at a probable Taylor Low or a Taylor High has been reached. Or failed to reach it. It helps one to anticipate failures to penetrate previous days cycles and stopping point for declines and rallies. Just calculating the average of Taylors decline/rallies...coupled with the three day cycle theory etc isn't enough to get the job done. I know this to be so. Taylor himself mentioned several times about reading the tape so I know that he did so in conjunction with all his analysis and averages and figures. He basically clocked the market like one would clock a slot machine but his final pull from the trigger came from tape reading. That is why for years I have talked about in my Taylor posts when I say my entry here or exit there depends on the tape. Most folks never catch it or maybe they don't understand the tape? That is why I listed those books in my pompous post as my intent was to give some resources to folks where they could learn about tape reading from what I call a classical view i.e. a chart. IT IS THE FINE TUNING OF THE TAYLOR METHODOLOGY. Trust me Taylor will only work well if one can read the tape for entries. On less than ideal day cycles one will miss the trend if they can't read the tape. Take my last Taylor chart (I refer you to post #216 and the post #212 anticipating the price action of #216). It was an ideal Taylor taylor BUY day. The market is taken down overnight for a shorting opportunity and I said that was what I was looking and I expected it in the night session (re-read my post #212..this was made before the fact). Then, when the day session started we had the reversal and a chance to go long and make a killing. But notice something here. The low didn't make it to the taylor projected low of 3-30 1395.75 or 1394.56.... my softaware forecast. The reversal came. If I couldn't read the tape and see that the reversal was here then I would have waited around for the market to make the Taylor projected low and I would have missed the move up. So, it was an ideal Taylor BUY day in terms of the Taylor Strategy (look to short and go long) and the direction (take the market down then back up early in the session) BUT it WAS NOT an ideal Taylor BUY day in terms of the projected low. Nor in terms of the projected high. My software projected a high of 1406.19 when the actually high after that great rally was 1419.75. Nothing but tape reading would have kept me in the Taylor moves for that day in spite of the facts that the direction being right and the short/long opportunities being righ (as not all Taylor buy days give a short/long opportunity.) This is a long way around the block to answer your question but me thinks it may be relevant to your question. So........ It is possible there could be a 3 week cycle? Or a 3 month cycle? Me thinks it is possible but then again tape reading, in the sense that I am discussed above,..well...it will be necessary as the time/sale/dom/ will be totally irrelevant to a 3 week cycle. You will have to use the sort of tape reading I am talking about. As much as some people don't like Tom Williams and VSA he did have alot of good stuff that is useful for tape reading. Wiliams is good too in the sense that this sort of tape reading I am talking about requires an analysis of the spread. The size of the spread says alot about the tape. The volume of trading on that spread size says alot too. We have volume and we have price and price spread and open and closing. I have never understood why pure price action people want to leave out that piece of important data, namely, volume. It tells how the price was made. And indicates the value of the price in terms of money and money is what moves the market. You and I don't move the markets. Institutions move the markets. And their foot print is the volume. Anyway I better shut up about volume. I will say two more things about volume. To read the tape like I talk about in this post one will have to take volume into consideration. The second thing is IF anything is a leading indicator it is VOLUME. I ahve nothing like it that helps me better detect probable future price action. Of course it can be wrong sometimes simply because institutions can be wrong sometimes. And institutions are battling out with each other and they all approach the market in their own way. One institution may start aggressive buying and that pushes the price up when a stronger one beings shorting and wins out. Either way the story is told in the tape (chart). And so much faking out goes on. Make the market look weak to drive down a few ticks so they can really buy at a discount price because their real plan is to take the market up. As much as some don't like Gann his book I mentioned it as being useful and especially Drokes book. Also,Silver mentioned Neils book which I had somehow left out but yes, it is important too. Why don't you make some books up on on these longer time frames and let us know what you find out? For those that are interested in extreme scalping based on tape reading the order flow and using a computer to do so can take a look at jigsaw trading. Google it. I have absolutely nothing to do with jigsaw so please mitt don't think that. I mention them as a resource only. For trading order flow from DOM look at NO BS Trading by John Grady. However, this sort of tape reading is very short-term and for scalping and isn't relevant to Taylor trading. It can be somewhat useful for scalping via Brooks methods if one likes to scalp and take longer Taylor positions also like I like to do. Hope all this makes sense. Probally won't be back for a bit. Why?
  40. 1 point
    WHY?

    Beyond Taylor

    Well guys I may disappear for a few weeks. I gotta do some other things and all this posting takes time and I ain't very bright so I have to peck the keyboard. I'll check back in occasionally and maybe add a post here and there. Just study the charts and posts and you will see how I trade Taylor and scalp at the same time. Why let time waste? Do both, if you think you might like scalping. Anyway, hope something was said that helps someone. Trading can be kept simple but it is hard work. I try to keep it simple for me and uncluttered but use these techiques that allow me to scalp, and trade the Taylor moves, at the same time. Here is forecast for tomm. It is a SS day in my Taylor count. I see it trading up first. It may or may not penetrate the high of 3-29 of 1404 but who knows. If it trades up early and gets close to 1404 I read the tape using techniques I gleaned from Arms, Taylor, Gann, Williams, Brooks, Droke and a few others. That would take too long to explain but in short I let the tape dictate to me my entry point. My pre-market Taylor analysis gives me a view on what may happen and helps me determine the day of the cycle. But the tape tells the real and final story so I fine tune my entries to it as I make my Taylor entries and exits. Anyway, the Taylor strategy calls for shorting any penetration of 1404 once the tape indicates it to be good to do so. My forecast give three possible highs with the highest being 1407.16. IF the price action takes place early in the session. If it doesn't make it early (like during night session or first couple hours after day session) then short when the decline begins but that will take some tape reading skills to determine that. If it makes or penetrates the high in the night session and looks like it may continue on up then I would wait and see how it goes and maybe even wait for the day session before shorting. However, if I think the high was made in the night session I will not hestitate to short in the night session. Whatever, happens if you take a short position on a SS day always be flat by the end of the day. That is Taylors rules. If there is no decline then pass on any Taylor trade for that day unless you have a mechanism that lets you recalculate the days on a the fly and work on the new info. My scalping techiques .....well most can be found in Brooks 3 volume set. One can then make minor modifications/adjustments. Anyone interested in scalping 1 to 3 points multiple times per day ....well I would strongly suggest they study Brooks well. Read his books several times. Don't buy his first book. Very hard to understand. Go to Amazon and order his new three volume set. You can also get them on PDF from Wiley Books, I believe. Mark them up. Study them for months. Next trade his concepts on a sim for 3 to 6months every day until you can get convinced. Then go live. He claims all you need to make money in the markets are in his 3 volume set. That is a bold statement. But, he is correct. However, it does take time and practice to get good at it (Brooks methodolgy). Don't think you will read the 3 vol in 3 weeks and start make money trading. You will have to study his techniques over and over and trade on a sim over and over until they become second nature. Please don't forget to use the 89 SMA and the 20 EMA if you scalp. The first is a concept I give you to help in scalping. Please use it. Don't just trust your eyeballs. Watch the relationship between the 2 MA's, their relationship to price and the distance they are from each other and from price. They tell a story about the trend and you generally want to be scalping the trend. They will give you some confidence if you feel a bit disoriented one day while scalping. If you scalp counter trend then you better be nimble as jack on your feet and don't take much. Grab what it gives you and move on. Scalping WITH trend produces much more high probability, and safe scalps. To Learn Classical Tape Reading then read and study: 1) Tom Williams (The Undeclared Secrets that Drive the Stock Market on.. the net as a pdf or buy his book Master the Market..you don't need the VSA software. Just learn the concepts) 2) Gann (the Truth of the Stock Market Tape..can be gotton at libraries) 3) Tape Reading for the 21st Century by Cliff Drokes..buy directly from his website as Amazon will charge you an arm and a leg. Cliff has it for under 20.00) 4) Brooks books for a view on what I would call classical tape reading bar by bar (thats not pub by pub for you UK people) using candlesticks. Of course, his books also to learn great scalping techiques. He also has a website ..brookspriceaction I believe it is. 5) Rollo Tape and other books by same author 6) Of course, the Livermore Remin. book is a great read and worth reading multiple times 8) ARMS Equivolume for some concepts on Volume. I think there is a ARMS website with some free downloads. One download is called Armsbookwcontents.pdf. I don't remember the site. If you can't find it with google send me a private message and I will help. 8) Finally don't forget Taylor. His book can be found at Traders press but I also like the pdf version (can be bought at Traders press and much cleaner than the free scanned version floating around on the net) and use the free PDF-Viewer program (google download and install) to mark it up and make notes on my digital copy. My hard copy is falling apart after so many years of reading and marking. All of the above are worth studing to learn the art of tape reading from a chart as opposed to tape reading on the DOM or time and sales..etc. These concepts propounded in these books will help you tremendously in developing a skill for tape reading from a chart which will in turn help you pick correct entries for Taylor trading. If you pick wrong entries for Taylor trading you will be forced to go through big drawdowns. If you get the day of the cycle wrong you won't make as much money as you could have made but Taylor will still work for you. I just can't stand big drawdowns. I do not like the pain. I grovel over a substancial loss.. paper or real. I hate losses.. paper or real. I know I have to accept them but STILL I do not like them and try my hardest to have as few as I can but when necessary I will quickly take a small loss knowing I can always get back in. And small losses don't eat at me. I have had my share of big losses in my journey and they eat at me for days and weeks on end. Tape reading from charts is a skill that takes time to develop. Give yourself 2 to 3 years to practice it well. But, you need the basic concepts planted in your brain. The books I just mentioned will give you those concepts. You have to plant them in your own brain. Nobody else can, or will, do that for you. Once they are planted there, and you have practiced them long enough, they will become second nature..like riding a bicyle. You will not have to think about every concept. Your brain will drive the car and do that for you. But that will take a few years to develop IF you work hard at it. But, the payoff is worth the effort. One more thing. Pick one or two things to trade and learn those instruments well. Do not jump around from market to market. Pick one or two as you plant the conepts in your brain and practice them. Why? Your brain will automatically learn the style of movements in those markets and will begin to correlate the concepts you are learning and apply them in that particular market. If at first, while learning the concepts, you jump from market to market it will take you much longer to learn how to apply them. After a few years you will be able to apply them in most any market. Spend alot of screen time just watching your one or two markets with nothing but 5 minute chart and the two moving averages, with volume. Please overcome any "I don't need volume to trade mindset"..Alot of that is out there on forums but please just think about it. Volume represents money..big money. Why would you want to ignore that element in your trading? Don't try to trade at first. Just get the screen time in. Hours and hours. Days and days. You are training your brain to pick out the patterns of that particular market. Then, when you begin to apply the concepts you have been studying you won't have to be conciously trying to decide if this move will continue or not. Your brain will let you know the probabilities. Get alot of just screen time in. If you work a regular job just record the sessions and watch them on weekends over and over...not even trying to apply watch you are learning. That will come later. You are just training your brain to pick out and read the movements of one or two instruments. Later you will apply what you are learning on a sim and then after that live Look guys if I can do it most anyone can. I didn't finish college. I read alot but but am not that smart. Really. Just your average bloke as you people in the UK might say. Trade well, see you around.
  41. 1 point
    When the es emini SP gaps overnight, I've noticed something interesting about the UVOL/DVOL ratio. There is often huge differences between the Up Volume and Down Volume at the market open after an overnight gap in price. Take a look at the es emini SP on Friday 3-18-11 for example. The NYSE 500 opened with Up Volume that was 65 times more than Down Volume! A 65 to 1 ratio of up volume to down volume. On a day when the es doesn't gap overnight, the ratio of one volume to the other is normally around 1 to 3 either way. So a ratio of 65 to 1 compared to a ratio of 2 to 1 is a huge difference. It only took 3 minutes for that ratio to drop to 30 to 1 at 9:33 am. And it was 11 to 1 by 9:48 am. Those are still very big differences of Up Volume to Down Volume. The interesting thing is, that the es emini dropped in price all day. So the huge Up Volume compared to Down Volume did not make the es go up. The ratio of Up Volume to Down volume was dropping all day, and the es emini went down all day. The es didn't bottom until that ratio got back to a fairly normal range of about 2 to 1, at 3:13 pm.
  42. 1 point
    Ingot54

    Joke of The Day!

    Young John had just completed high school in the bush, and was off to the city to college. He had a faithful cattle dog, 'Bluey', and insisted on taking the dog with him. Of course, the attractions of city life were quite new to John, and during his out-of-college time, he spent-up rather big on enjoying it all. Eventually, the money ran a bit low, and John was a bit short. He decided to ring his father for a little advance. "Hello ... Dad? You will not believe what is happening here - Bluey is learning to play the piano." "Go on, son. You're kidding me!" "No, Dad, honestly - you should hear him. But the dog teacher had to be paid, and I am a bit short" "No worries, John. The cheque's in the mail." Well time went by, and John again got a bit short of money, and he decided to ring dad again for some money. "Hi Dad. Bluey is so advanced that he is now playing the piano and dancing at the same time. He is a big hit down here. But the extra lessons are not cheap." "Don't worry son, the cheque's in the mail. It's a good thing you got going there with Bluey." John was happy until the day came for him to go home. He knew he had to face the family with a dog that could neither dance nor play the piano. The day he got off the train, Dad was waiting there to meet him. "Where's Bluey?" said Dad, "I was hoping to watch a performance." "Well Dad, Bluey became so advanced, that he began to talk. We used to have long conversations about the things we've seen and done. One night he told me about you and that little red-haired sheila down at the pub, and he told me what you and her ..." "Crikey, John," interrupted Dad, "I hope you shot him!" "Yes, Dad, I did. I sure did. "
  43. 1 point
    MightyMouse

    38 Steps to Becoming a Trader

    Step 39 is when Shrek and Feona have a family and live happily ever after
  44. 1 point
    To become a full time traders, it will take years. Full time trader is smiliar to becoming a lawyer, Doctors, etc. The problem is many people believe day trading es is "get rich quick." If it takes 5 yrs to become a doctor, it will take 5 yrs to become a full time trader. I have no clue why people believe they can become a full time trader less than 1 yr. If that is true, why does it take a long time to become a doctor, lawyer, etc. According to the Gov report, 97% of the people lose trading in the futures market. One of the reason they lose is, they failed to understand trading futures involves substantial risk and only risk capital should be used. All brokerages and few trading school websites have those risk disclaimer. But for some reason, most people FAILED or ignore the risk disclaimer. For those who are a successful full time traders took them yrs to get there. Plus, they fully understood that trading es is NOT A GET RICH QUICK and trading futures involves SUBSTANTIAL RISK!!!!!! hope this help
  45. 1 point
    thalestrader

    Taylor Trading Technique

    I agree. I've been trading TTT for fair amount of time. I have always found that most folks who fail to understand Taylor fail largely because they are fixated on the cycle, rather than on how Taylor uses where price is in relation to Support and Resistance. For example, I have rarely, if ever, read anyone here mention the "objective Point," a concept Taylor uses without which you will not succeed with Taylor's method, at least not as Taylor himself understood his own teachings. It is precisely this failure to appreciate Taylor's understanding of trading price action that leads folks to assume that the cycle needs repeatedly to be "re-set" or "adjusted" as George Angell famously (or infamously) suggested is necessary. If one were instead to view the cycle not as a set of strict trading rules, but rather as Taylor intended it, i.e. as a critical apparatus through which to view and interpret price action around significant support and resistance levels, i.e. Taylor's objective points, then one would also no doubt understand that for Taylor it is not nearly so simple as buying on Buy Day, selling on Selling Day, and shorting on Short Sale Day. Indeed, a close reading of Taylor will reveal that Taylor clearly (insofar as he can be accused of clarity at all) taught that the trader will at times buy on a Short Sale day and Sell Short on a Buy Day, but unlike George Angell and more than a few forum posters, both here at TL and elsewhere, those circumstances do not override the trading cycle. For example, let me quote Taylor concerning just such circumstances: 1) "In the case of a Higher Buying Day Low, the stock or future shows support causing a rally and a strong close on the Short Sale Day - the decline from this rally, next day, on the Buying Day, fails to sell down to the previous low - the Short Sale Day Low - this rally on the Short Sale day is an indication of a Higher Buy Day Bottom" and 2) "A Short Sale put out at the High of a Buying Day made FIRSTon the penetration of the Short Sale Day High, should be covered on the reaction ... for short selling on the Buying Day High made FIRST is generally a weak short sale." To really benefit from Taylor's method, one needs to see that the cycle, in and of itself, is useless without an accute awareness of price - especially where price is in relation to the open, and more importantly, where price is in relation to immediately prior highs and prior lows and previous closes. After all, what does Taylor keep in his book but a record of PRICE high, PRICE low, and the closing PRICE, and whether PRICE made its high or low first. The primary data from which all else in his Book (meaning the hand written Book he kept for trading and not the book he published about his method) consists of (Surprise! Surpise!) volume, opening price, high price, low price, and closing price. As is the case with all indicators, methods, systems, etc. anything that may be useful to making trading decisions will be derived from price. The true value and genius of Taylor's method, properly applied, is that it focuses the trader on specific price levels and price action, i.e. how price behaves around those levels, and how to anticipate in which direction the path of least resistance lay. As an aside, when Ed Dobson chose to publish Taylor's method, he did no one anywhere any favors by not only publishing Angell's and Raschke's interpretations of the method in the same volume, but then he went farther by suggesting in the publisher's forward that readers skip reading Taylor first, if not altogether, and simply read Angell's and Raschke's essays! What a mistake! This is, no doubt, one reason why most traders who approach Taylor become enamored of the trading cycle, and ignore price action, support and resistance, completly ignoring Taylor's objective points, as Angell in particular focuses squarely on the trading cycle in his essay on Taylor's method. Of course, another reason so many focus on the cycle and not the whole of Taylor's discussion on trading price action is that traders always want the easy money. How nice would it be if it really were so simple as buying on a buy day, holding overnight and selling soon after the open on the selling day for a nice profit, and then go short on the short sale day, cover at the close, again for a nice profit, and then start it all over again the next day by again going long on the subsequent buy day! If only trading were that easy! Angell was the one who first suggested that cycles need to be shifted from time to time. Let us all remember that Angell was selling a primitive computer software program using the Taylor method (dubbed LSS by Angell) and as Taylor's method is a discretionary method, Angell's project to automate trading signals from Taylor necessarily broke down. Angell could only make his program marginally salable by allowing the program to periodically re-set its cycle. The Book Method, you see, is meant for human intelligence, not artificial intelligence. As a further aside, anyone interested can quickly verify that Angell was fined by the CFTC/NFA (http://www.cftc.gov/opa/enf02/opa4628-02.htm) for his sale of and claims made on behalf of his LSS method and his computerized trading system. Why anyone would depend upon an essay that was originally intended as a piece of sales literature for what amounted to a faulty and fraudulent computer trading system scheme for his or her understanding of Taylor's (a real trader, by the way) method is beyond me. But those who insist that the cycle is anything other than a three day affair, or that it otherwise is in constant need of periodic adjustment is doing preciely that - interpreting Taylor's Trading Method through the lens of a fraud and a propagandist. In the end, it is always all about price. If its not about price, then it is about fear, greed, and EGO. Best Wishes, Thales
  46. 1 point
    Shamal

    Pure VSA

    Eiger, presume you meant "No Supply" on D & G bar rather than "No Demand"
  47. 1 point
    Soultrader

    IB Range Indicator for CQG

    A simple study for CQG plotting the 60 minute (initial balance) high/low. This works only on a day session chart. Once imported and applied to a chart, right click on the two lines > modify > and change the line to dash. Screenshot is attached. Enjoy! IB Range.pac
  48. 1 point
    Kiwi

    Woodies CCI technique.

    Lets get real. The CCI does provide the basis for working trading if its used properly. First: what is required? People trade with the trend or countertrend. Lets say that trading with the trend is easier (longer moves, and more forgiving because if you get your exit timing wrong the retracement frequently won't reach your stop before the move continues, although obviously a trend will finish or do a larger timescale retracement at some time). When you trade with the trend you either hang on trailing stops or you exit at targets that (for most people and strategies) should be at least twice as big as your planned losses. So, can Woodies' use of the CCI help with this? Yes. Its a trend following indicator (its just the current price minus a CCI length simple moving average divided by a normalizing factor (so that reaching 200 is similar to reaching the 2sd bollinger band ... similar)). If you wait until its above zero for a while then the chance is you have an up trend. If you wait for a pullback to zero or a little below you have a pullback of sufficient magnitude to feed liquidity into continuation. So you buy. Then you have to exit. How? When it hits the 2sd bollinger (200cci) or when it pulls back from that perhaps? etc etc So basically Woodie has taken standard reasons for entering and exiting a trade and framed them around a 14sma and 6sma based indicator. They can work. Do most people succeed with them? No. Do most people succeed with any trading method? No. Is it the best method? No. Most would do far better understanding trend, support and resistance, and price action (and where it and volume action are relevant) than messing with the cci. But is it that wcci doesn't work? No. So what has to change? Study price based methods and yourself. In simplicity and understanding lies the holy grail.
  49. 1 point
    smwinc

    Edge VS Mentality

    Interesting discussion this. I have seen and spent time with a very diverse group of traders. From very successful independent & prop traders, traders at firms, traders at banks, average traders, losing traders, losing traders who think they are good traders, etc. The three things that really stand out separating the traders comes down to: 1) Discipline 2) Conviction 3) Guts. In my experience, having an edge to pull an income from the markets is actually not that hard at all. I would go so far as to say it is easy. Some of the most consistent traders I know have particular setups, and they just don't really question it. They don't make a killing, they just grind it out, working their small edge. Mentality is too general a word. The more specific problem: The majority of people have no discipline. It takes a huge amount of discipline to know what your specific edge is, sit infront of a screen and only take those setups. To only trade your edge, entires & exits. I do NOT think the problem is exactly about having a profitable strategy. It's about having a profitable strategy, and trading that and only that. The average person simply can't sit infront of a screen all day, every day, to only take one very specific setup. Even if it were to make them more than their current income. If you can't follow an exercise plan, can't follow a diet, can't follow a study plan, etc - It is unlikely you will succeed at trading until you can address those issues. This is one of the key reasons why there is a correlation between successful athletes following on to become successful traders - it is the discipline aspect. Subsequently, it is also a key factor in why there is very little correlation between being successful in a white-collar job, to becoming a successful trader. Most 'real jobs' (as I call them :-) ) do not require and test your discipline on a daily basis.
  50. 1 point
    sheptrader

    [VSA] Volume Spread Analysis Part I

    Hi Gordon G, remember weakness apppears on up bars not down bars, you have marked all down bars with volume less than previous two not up bars. so simply put,. down trend looking to go short look for weakness in up bars up trend looking to go long look for strength in down bars regards sheptrader
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