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potmo joined the community
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Date : 23rd August 2019. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 23rd August 2019.FX News Today A confluence of factors whipped the markets around Thursday heading into the Jackson Hole Symposium and Chair Powell’s comments Friday at 10 ET. Hawkish remarks from George (she dissented against the July easing) and Harker (who votes in 2020) weighed on Treasuries and erased early gains from Wall Street. Minutes from both Fed and ECB meetings were not quite the all out dovish signal that some had been hoping for and comments from Fed members yesterday also showed a degree of caution with regard to further easing measures. The curve in the US steepened again after inverting briefly overnight, the curve flattened and inverted further in Japan. Stock markets across Asia moved mostly higher although gains remained contained by caution. New Zealand’s central bank governor said he could afford to wait before declining on additional easing measures. Onshore Yuan set at its weakest for 11 years. Japanese core consumer inflation at a 2-year low in July. Meanwhile lingering geopolitical trade tensions and political jitters in Hong Kong, Italy and the UK add to an uncertain backdrop. US futures are also cautiously moving higher. The WTI future is trading at USD 55.37 per barrel. Charts of the DayTechnician’s Corner EURUSD returned to 3-week lows of 1.1064 today, after rallying to session highs of 1.1099 following the sub-50 US manufacturing PMI. Negative European yields appear to be taking their toll on the currency, keeping the Dollar in demand in place for relatively high yielding US Treasuries. This has likely been a major factor keeping EURUSD under pressure, especially ahead of likely ECB easing in September, and perceptions that the Fed will not be as aggressive in easing as previously thought. Key EURUSD level is the 27-month low of 1.1027 seen on August 1. USDJPY rallied to 106.64 highs. The risk-sensitive pairing can be expected to consolidate into today’s much anticipated speech from Fed chair Powell, from Jackson Hole. GBPUSD: Sterling had its best single day rally since March 13 against the Dollar. Cable’s high was 1.2273, which is the loftiest level seen since late July. The gains were sparked by comments made by German’s Merkel, who indicated that a solution to the Irish border backstop conundrum is doable by the October-31 Brexit deadline. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson followed this up by saying at his joint press conference with France’s Macron that he was encouraged by his talks in Berlin yesterday, and that a deal, he thinks, can be done ahead of October 31. Macron, said, however, that while he has always respected the UK’s decision to leave the EU, the European project has to be protected, to which the Irish backstop remains an important part of ensuring this. Merkel’s remarks were little more than rhetorical platitudes, though enough to trigger a short squeeze in a heavy shorted currency. Main Macro Events Today Jackson Hole Symposium – Day 2 Retail Sales ex Autos (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Retail sales are expected to have decreased in Canada, with consensus forecasts suggesting a -0.5% m/m decline should be registered in June and an unchanged ex-autos component at 0.3%. In May, Retail sales were disappointing, falling 0.1% for total sales and declining 0.3% for the ex-autos component. The decline in sales was driven by a 2.0% tumble in food and beverage stores. The report casts some doubt on the resiliency of the consumer sector to the ongoing parade of worrisome geopolitical and trade developments. Support and Resistance levelsAlways trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Kelviz joined the community
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Outline joined the community
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Thanks for your suggestions man!! Our own decision surely makes us or breaks us. Thanks once again, buddy.
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anilpatel joined the community
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mikenus joined the community
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Right, as a trader, we are our own boss so there is no fear instead of loss in this market. To learn the market we have to keep learning and following rules or our plan that we have decide for trading.
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None trader or broker can control the market. There is no single person who is behind the Forex market so there is no way to be controlled the market with a man power.
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EU is still trading in a range. I'm heading out of town tonight and won't be back until Sunday evening.
- Yesterday
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Ardshir joined the community
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LCS11 joined the community
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LoneTrader19 joined the community
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pna joined the community
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Came back to check on price after an hour of meditation, EU came within 3 ticks of target... Fascinating the ego brings up the story of betrayal, as if the market was out there to get me. I then reminded myself cool, this trade went over 2R. Even better yet, I acted consistently with executing my trading plan! Let the market do its thing.
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I took this limit long on the retest of the earlier 123 and support area. Target is near top of the zone. I notice that my target needs to be more mechanical in the sense that I may be influence to have a more/less aggressive target based on the results of the last trade. I have collected some modifications for the next batch of trades.
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Correction: the GU made it to 45 out of a 49 tick target. It was a 2.5R full target, not 3R. The EU long trade was 7:15am EST. I will refrain from getting up even earlier with the goal of not missing the next one. I notice after each trade, the mind, with the desire of wanting to experience a win, subtly pushes me to deviate from trading plan. My main concern with this set of 20 trades is build a greater sense of consistency in my execution and self trust. I realized the outcome of each individual trade absolutely does not matter. If I started to care about it, I am assuming that somehow I am responsible for the market's movement, which I am not. I am only responsible for following my trading plan, which can be adjusted after the 20 trades based on the stats I collect.
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While there are several investment options to choose from, an investor still requires a substantial amount of capital to build a diversified portfolio. This capital need can be a special challenge for young investors, as they may have minimal savings to invest. Thus, Tamir Zoltovski (Co-founder of Moneta International UAB) says ETFs (exchange-traded funds) make it probable to have a diversified portfolio with comparatively low investment thresholds.
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TamirZoltovski joined the community
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What are the strategies to trade successfully?
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GU closed for -1R. It made it to 2.8R but not quite the 3R. There was also a EU long trade that happened about 4:15am EST. FOMC is over now so let's see if we can get a nice trend setup today.
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Date : 22nd August 2019. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 22nd August 2019. FX News Today * FOMC minutes did not provide strong clues on the direction of rates. * However, the lack of a signal that the Fed’s July rate cut was the start of an easing cycle was enough to eventually weigh on Treasuries. * Asian stock markets struggled as investors continued to digest the implications of yesterday’s Fed minutes and trading conditions remained quieter than usual ahead of Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole tomorrow. * Yields closed at their highs of the session after holding cheap levels all session. The curve narrowed below 1 bp as the short end underperformed. * US President Trump continued to criticize the Fed Chairman, while suggesting the US may strike a deal on trade, but that didn’t prevent US futures from heading south overnight. * Topix and Nikkei are currently down -0.13% and -0.09% respectively, despite improvements in PMI readings that were counterbalanced by an as expected decline in the All Industry Index. * The WTI future meanwhile fell back to $55.45 per barrel. * Brexit: Merkel gives Johnson 30 days to solve Backstop conundrum. * Johnson is today expected in Paris, where the tone is likely to be harsher than in Berlin, although both Merkel and Macron have stressed that they are ready for a no-deal Brexit if there is no agreement. * The UK curve remains inverted out to the 10-year area. Charts of the Day Technician’s Corner *USDJPY printed a two-day low, at 106.28.The biggest mover, not surprisingly, has been AUDJPY, a forex market barometer of shifting risk-appetite patterns in global markets. The cross was showing a 0.5% loss heading into the London interbank open, and was testing one-week lows at 71.90. Next Support stands at 71.76 and 71.60. Resistance is at the pivot 72.20 level. Main Macro Events Today * Jackson Hole Symposium – Day 1 * Services and Manufacturing PMI (EUR, GMT 07:30-08:00) – July PMI readings highlighted manufacturing weakness. This picture is likely to be seen again in the preliminary readings for August, as Manufacturing PMI has been forecast at 46.3 from 46.5 last month, still down from 47.6 in June, and indicates a deepening recession in a sector that has been hit very hard by global trade tensions and no-deal Brexit risks. Meanwhile, Services PMI is expected to fall to 52.7 from 53.2. * Services and Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 13:45) – Preliminary Manufacturing is expected to grow in August, to 51.0 from 50.4, as Services PMI is likely to fall to 51.7 from 53. * New Zealand Retail Sales (NZD, GMT 22:45) – Usually considered an index of consumer confidence and overall consumption in the economy, higher retail sales point to higher consumption and hence higher economic growth which is good for the currency. Support and Resistance levels Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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GU still in the trade. This stop or target is such a ride.
- Last week
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Cancelled. Very slow today, perhaps due to FOMC week. Best, J
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Hi jfw215, I've never had a trading log...I think you might have me mistaken for username "humbled." Mine is "humblepeasant." I admire your persistence! I wish you all the best! -hp
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EU stalk.
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Woke up and saw price did move down 40 ticks and now is forming a LH. I remind myself that the purpose of this current exercise is to develop self trust in consistency so I am not going to do anything other than just let price play itself out.
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Thanks
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biglivetrade changed their profile photo
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Date : 21st August 2019. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 21st August 2019. FX News Today * Wall Street suffered another bout of weakness inspired by declines in Treasury yields. * The USA500 lost near 0.8% after a late selloff, with the USA30 off 0.66%, ending the recent run of gains. * Stocks traded mixed in Asia, while European as well as US futures are posting slight gains ahead of today’s Fed minutes and Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium later in the week. * A drop in European rates spilled over to Treasuries, with the long end outperforming. That compressed the yield curve again, one of the main factors behind last Wednesday’s plunge on Wall Street. * The markets will remain focused on the Fed today with the release of the minutes from July 30, 31 FOMC with hopes for dovish signals. Nearly 70 bps in easing is expected over the rest of the year. * Top negotiators from Japan and the US will meet this week to try and narrow the gaps in ongoing trade talks, but hopes that there will be substantial progress on the key issues agriculture and automobiles seem to be fading. * Italian BTPs outperformed yesterday on hopes that new elections can be avoided and that an alternative coalition government can be found to bring at least the 2020 budget underway helped to underpin Italian assets on Tuesday and at least so far there is no sign of contagion risks. * Germany meanwhile will sell its first 30-year Bund with a zero coupon, and yields in today’s auction could turn negative for the first time. * The AUD remained underpinned by upbeat comments from the RBA on the growth outlook in yesterday’s minutes. * The WTI future is trading at USD 56.36 per barrel. Charts of the Day Technician’s Corner * EURUSD bounced to 1.1100 highs on a short covering move, after failing to make any downside progress under Friday’s over 2-week low of 1.1066, along with another Treasury yield lurch lower. The pairing looks to be consolidating losses seen over the past week or so, and with sell-stops now said to be building around the 1.1050 level, a downside break is looking more likely. Not as dovish as expected FOMC minutes on Wednesday could save Euro bulls for now, though with the ECB primed to ease further, Germany poised for fiscal stimulus, the unknown impact of Brexit, and the political crisis in Italy, EURUSD looks set to test the 27-month low of 1.1027 seen on August 1. * USDCAD rallied yesterday at 1.3344 a 2-month high, as WTI crude fell $1/bbl to $55.20, and as Canada manufacturing data came in on the soft side. USDCAD later pulled back toward 1.3310 as oil recovered some lost ground. The 200-day MA at 1.3305 becomes support now, after closing above the level on Monday. Resistance is the June 19 top of 1.3383. Main Macro Events Today * Consumer Price Index (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Canada’s CPI did not challenge the outlook for steady BoC policy this year. CPI slowed to a 2.0% y/y pace in June from the lofty 2.4% y/y clip in May. Inflation remains around the 2 percent target, with some recent upward pressure from higher food and automobile prices. Core measures of inflation are also close to 2 percent. Even though CPI inflation will likely dip this year because of the dynamics of gasoline prices and some other temporary factors, the annual and monthly numbers for July are expected to remain steady. As slack in the economy is absorbed and these temporary effects wane, inflation is expected to return sustainably to 2 percent by mid-2020. * FOMC Minutes (USD, GMT 18:00) – The FOMC minutes, similar to the ECB Reports, provide an assessment as regards the views of the Fed’s policymakers about the interest-setter’s future stance and are usually a cause for FX turbulence. Support and Resistance levels Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Trade is developing. I'm off to bed.
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Trade #3, GU
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EU Short Stalk
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UJ was also closed out at -1R. something to add to the next round of trades: do not have 2 trades against the same pair.
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-1R.
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EU short. Not so sure about short EU during Jpy timeframe. Will review the validity of such after batch of trades.
