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Swing Trading and Position Trading
Discussion forum for swing trading strategies, ideas, and insights. Shorter term swing trading and longer term position trading.
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By HFblogNews · Posted
Date : 3rd April 2020. Inured to the bad news.The markets are relatively inured to the bad news, as the weekly jobless claims have already given us the increasingly ugly news on the labor market. US equities are modestly weaker amid risk-off sentiment and an employment report that revealed a much larger than anticipated -701k plunge in March and a jump in the jobless rate to 8.7% from 7.0%.Meanwhile, the Dollar showed mixed reaction to the employment report. These numbers were worse than expected, though shouldn’t really be a surprise given the more timely surge in jobless claims figures seen the past two weeks. USDJPY initially fell to 108.25 before turning back up again at 108.60, while EURUSD fell to 1.0780 from 1.0800. USDCHF extended gains up to 0.9794, reversing nearly 76% of the decline seen since March 20.EURUSD concurrently carved out a 9-day low at 1.0774, making this the 5th consecutive day of lower lows while extending the correction from the 17-day high that was seen last Friday at 1.1148. The pair still remains above the low seen during the recent Dollar liquidity crunch, at 1.0637, before the Fed and other central banks stepped in to try and satiate the demand for cash dollars. Its overall outlook meanwhile, remains negative, with the asset extending well below all 3 daily SMAs and with its daily momentum indicators negatively configured. Hence the Dollar bid looks to hold.The March establishment and household employment surveys captured more of the early layoffs than the markets had assumed, with massive declines for payrolls and hours-worked, big drops for civilian employment, the labor force, and the participation rate, and the start of the upward march for the jobless rate. Wages were also firm, likely due to the concentration of job loss among lower-paid workers.The specifics: March nonfarm payrolls dropped -701k after February’s 275k increase (was 273k), which ended a 9.5 year run of employment gains. The employment in the goods-producing sector fell -54k from the 57k (was 61k) rise. Service sector jobs slumped -659k after rising 185k (was 167k) in February. Leisure/hospitality jobs plunged -459k from the prior 45k (was 51k) increase. Education/health care jobs were down -76k versus a 65k (was 54k) increase previously. Government jobs edged up 12k, with 18k added to the Federal payroll. The unemployment rate jumped to 4.4% (4.38%) from 3.5%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% versus the prior 0.3% gain.The weakness captured in the mid-month March jobs report may prompt downward revisions in the Q1 GDP estimate, on the assumption that the Quarter may capture more of the economic plunge than previously assumed.Beyond the timing of Q1 versus Q2 growth figures, however, the surprise in today‘s report is more the degree to which the surveys captured late-March events than the magnitude of declines, since the bulk of the jobs loss will still be captured in the surveys for April.Since the Fed is already in maximum easing mode, it is unlikely that reports like today‘s will alter the monetary policy path.Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. -
By freetrading · Posted
Since Yesterday 02 April 2020 CorsaForex Binary Options Broker is out from business We recommend you to trade with Binary. com (Online since 1999) with Binary Options 20$ No Deposit Bonus https://binaryoptionsfree.eu/binary-com-review-great-binary-options-customers-support/ -
re: stocks. Imo,we have a long ways to go down before we get to ‘value’ . “Even at the March 23rd low...the Wilshire 5000-to-GDP ratio was at 101.38 percent, the 73rd percentile” No place to be shopping for 'value' Yet, with all the fake money flooding in, the stock mkt could still soar. But - up is not really up. The long ‘bull of the last dacade + was actually ‘bull’sht. Bullsht = steady injections of more fiat, taking on cash flow dependent corporate debt to finance ‘supply reducing’ buybacks, malinvestments galore, capital DESTRUCTION - all clouded by a steady stream of FALSE msm narratives and fake numbers - from top numbers (ie GDP, etc.) all the way down to individual corp reports and reporting. ... ie Any ‘bull’ action now is in the category of obese elephant bull sht... And as I have been posting for years, we can’t use dollars as a measure anymore. ie Up is not really up https://mises.org/wire/what-if-fed-did-nothing and using dollars as a measure is getting worse and worse. ‘money’ not ‘working’ anymore. .. https://alhambrapartners.com/2020/03/31/what-is-the-feds-new-fima-the-potential-for-a-shadow-shadow-run-is-very-real/ https://alhambrapartners.com/2020/03/30/no-dollars-and-no-sense-eighty-argentinas/ ... ” Another day, another trillion dollars.” re: “all clouded by a steady stream of FALSE narratives. “ Yes, sweetheart the same thing has been happening in the covidity lockdown ... a steady stream of FALSE narratives https://medium.com/@caityjohnstone/peoples-skepticism-about-covid-19-is-the-fault-of-the-lying-mass-media-91216ad7fcf3 ... I just chuckle now anytime I hear any US press comment on/ criticise Russia or Chinese ‘disinformation’ . Imo, China’s ‘Police State’ is currently only a tiny click or two worse than our ‘Pharm State’. Re: trading. It’s been a wild wonderful wide range last six + weeks to trade. I have been preparing for it a long time and still didn’t capture as much as possible... for one thing, didn't increase/balance sizing for those outlier bounces as robustly as I should have, etc ... but still it’s been amazing. First signs starting to show up that ‘volatility’ is slowing down ... will deal with that by up sizing all positions appropriately. I’m no longer ‘trading’ fx. I’m now speculating in fx. ... gradually scaling into a pretty good sized dollar short... do you make a distinction btwn ‘trading’ and ‘speculating’? btw atlas shrugged about a “secret coin”.... I’m just sayin’ later... maybe -
By HFblogNews · Posted
Date : 2nd April 2020. FX Action – 2nd April 2020.A 10%-plus rebound in crude prices catalyzed gains in oil-correlating currencies, including the Canadian Dollar and Norwegian krona, and other commodity currencies, while helping give stock markets a lift after a sputtering session in Asia. The wake of ugly 6.6 mln surge in US jobless claims, which was about double the consensus forecast, weighed on global markets. US equities reversed lower as risk appetite eroded again, taking back earlier gains, while Aussie for example has more than given up intraday gains, with AUDUSD presently pushing on lows at 0.6019, down just over a big figure from the intraday high that was seen during the Sydney session.The massive gain in initial claims, which followed a similarly hefty rise the previous week, was well anticipated but provided a timely reminder of what is to come.USDCAD has dropped by over 0.6%, driven by a bid for the Canadian Dollar amid a 10%-plus oil price surge. The pair posted a low at 1.4079, though has so far remained above its Wednesday low at 1.4060. A Bloomberg report, citing sources with inside knowledge, said that China is moving forward with plans to buy oil for its emergency reserves. Beijing is reportedly aiming to build up a crude stockpile that would cover 90 days of net imports with the possibility of expanding this to 180 days. China is the world’s biggest oil importer and is taking advantage of the 60%-odd collapse in oil prices. USOIL prices posted a 6-day high at $22.55, but still remain down by just over 65% from the highs seen in early January. This level of price decline in Canada’s principal export, while it sustains, marks a significant deterioration in the Canadian economy’s terms of trade. Assuming that China’s buying spree won’t close this gap substantially, given the glut of crude flooding the market, and given that demand will remain weak for a historically protracted amount of time, CAD should remain apt to underperformance. In the medium term, USDCAD could retest its recent 17-year high at 1.4669.Both the AUDUSD and NZDUSD rallied, although both remained within their respective Wednesday ranges against the US Dollar.USDJPY and most yen crosses, in particular those involving a commodity currency, have gained concomitantly with the improvement in risk appetite, which saw the yen’s safe haven premium unwind some.GBP is again ranking among the currency outperformers today, gaining over 0.7% versus the Dollar and by over 0.8% against both the Euro and Yen on the day so far. Market narratives have been pointing to the impact of the Fed’s launching of a new “FIMA” facility (announced Tuesday) , which will start on April 6 and allow foreign central banks to obtain Dollars without selling Treasuries. This will run alongside the swap lines created with 14 central banks, and the two should ease strains in global dollar funding. This is seen as a particular positive for the Pound, given the UK’s recently proven vulnerability to global liquidity shortages, with its large financial sector and dependence on foreign investment inflows (equivalent to about 4% of GDP) to finance its large current account deficit.The Pound had underperformed even commodity currencies during the worst of the recent global liquidity crunch, which ran from about March 10th through to March 19th, before measures by the Fed and other central banks provided a mitigating impact. Sterling lost about 10% of its value in trade-weighted terms over this period, and tumbled by 12% versus the Dollar, hitting a 35-year low, and an 11-year low against the Euro. The worst now looks to be over for the Pound, especially with markets starting to bet that the UK will ask the EU for an extension of its post-Brexit transition membership of the Union’s customs union and single market. Neither the UK nor EU has the resources to conduct detailed trade negotiations under the prevailing circumstance of the coronavirus crisis. This is seen as Sterling positive as it will avoid the possibility of the UK leaving the transition period and shifting a big chunk of its trade onto less favourable WTO trade terms.Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. -
By CrazyCzarina · Posted
No one can specify that who can become successful in what time, it all depends on the skills you have applied and know;edge you have implied while trading.
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