Technical Topics

Date : 23rd October 2020.Dollar Dips as Equities escalate.EURUSD, H1 The Dollar fell back concomitantly with rallying European stock markets and US index futures, which was likely a repositioning dynamic after declining over the last two weeks.EURUSD rebounded quite strongly, rising back above 1.1850 from a three-day low at 1.1787. Preliminary October PMI data in the services and composite readings out of the Eurozone and UK undershot the median forecast of economists, but didn’t impact the Euro or Sterling. Technically, the H1 chart has moved over the 50-hour moving average (1.1835) to test R1 at 1.1852; above here is Wednesday’s high and R2 at 1.1885. Today’s pivot point is next support at 1.1830, below the 50-hour moving average. The MACD histogram has broken the zero line and the signal is starting to rise, although still south of the zero line, RSI is positive and trades at 64.50, Stochastics are moving into the OB zone.Cable settled at near net unchanged levels around 1.3090-95 after dropping back from a high at 1.3124. The UK currency remains comfortably up on week-ago and month-ago levels against the Dollar and Euro, and others, with market participants anticipating a limited trade deal between the EU and UK. The two sides are amid intensive face-to-face discussions. The UK and Japan today signed the trade deal that was agreed in principle a month ago.USDJPY is modestly softer after upside forays over the last day stalled at 104.93-95. At levels around 104.70, the pair remains down by 1% on the high seen on Wednesday. AUDUSD rallied to an eight-day high at 0.7158, floated by higher stock markets in Europe and an above-forecast composite PMI reading out of Australia. Global asset markets are likely to remain skittish, notwithstanding the rally today, with investors pondering the uncertainties presented by the surge in Covid cases in Europe and elsewhere, including now in many US states and in Canada, and which are leading to ever more restrictive countermeasures. The ongoing delay in new US fiscal stimulus and the event risk posed by the upcoming US elections are also in the mix. Regarding the elections, polls point to a Biden presidency, but it is less clear if his Democratic party can take control of the Senate. If not, then Congress will remain split at least until the mid-term elections in two years, which will limit the scope for policy changes and crimp Democrat ambitions for expansive fiscal policy.US data later is topped by flash PMI data, Manufacturing numbers are expected to show a slight rise to 53.5 from 53.2 last time, whilst the more important and significant Services numbers are expected to increase by a single tick from 54.6 to 54.7. The data is due at 13:45 GMT.Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 22nd October 2020.Volatility and US elections.US Elections had been and always expected to be an event historically extremely volatile globally. Elections similar to other political or banking sector events are notably treated by market participants with anticipation and speculation. As discussed in our HF Markets Q4 Outlook, markets look to have already pricing in the possibility of Biden’s victory even though they overall maintain an increasing cautious optimism, holding US Dollar basket to 2018 low territory.Election-year fund flows, 1993-2020Historically, it has been noticed that during election years, market participants due to the heightened uncertainty, shift their investments into Money market funds instead from the safety of stock and bond funds, AS THEY waiting out. The 2020 is not any different but it’s been a unique one as we have seen an extreme money flow into currency assets in comparison with past election years, due the sluggish US and worldwide economic activity as the Covid-19 crisis resumes, the truce with China again which is under scrutiny, the lockdowns in several areas, the lack of additional fiscal stimulus from central bankers, Brexit frictions and the fear of double dip recession in Europe.Year-to-date fund flows, through June 30Source: BlackRock, with data from Morningstar as of June 30, 2020. Money market funds, stock funds and bond funds are represented by their respective US fund categories as defined by Morningstar.That said, cash balance into money funds spike to $980 in 2020 as of June 30, given the large risk premia. However as soon as uncertainty recedes we might see equity market’s volatility and volume to spike again since they consider to be attractive and more stable assets in period which there are historically low interest rates. If we emphasize on the medium term thought it is expected that if current conditions sustained, market volatility will extend beyond Election days with any potential outcome, i.e. a Biden win and Democrat majority in Congress, a Biden win but split Congress, or a Trump victory with split Congress.Meanwhile, a very chart from Wells Fargo Investment Institute, shows the USA500 implied Volatility index along with USA500 index performance prior and post the Election Day based on the election since 1988 with 2008 recession year excluded. This chart interestingly suggest that typically the USA500 tends to eased/consolidate a bit a month prior elections despite a extremely high volatility, while USA500 price continue their upwards move after the election day even though volatility declines significantly.WELLS FARGO INVESTMENT INSTITUTEAlways trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.  

Date : 21st October 2020.USD Down, GBP & Crypto’s Higher, CAD data.The Dollar underperformed while the Pound outperformed and the Yen, diverging from its usual close correlation with the Dollar, was measuring as the second strongest of the main currencies. Global stock markets have been skittish, with European indices dropping and US equity index futures giving back gains in returning to near net unchanged levels.Sterling has rallied quite strongly, showing a 1.0%+ gain on the Dollar at prevailing levels, as it rallied to test 1.3100. EURGBP is back under 0.9100 and down over 0.5% and testing 0.9050. The market reacted to remarks from EU trade negotiator, Barnier, that talks with the UK could continue “day and night.” There was also news that US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said that a trade agreement with the UK would come “reasonably soon.” The currency market evidently remains bullish on the EU and UK reaching an agreement, although the game of chicken between the two sides is continuing. Boris Johnson’s position is that the EU must fundamentally change its stance, while France’s European affairs minister Clément Beaune asserted yesterday that there would be “no new approach.” USDJPY tumbled under 105.00 en-route to printing a one-month low at 104.55. EURUSD lifted to a one-month high at 1.1868.USDCAD posted a new low for a fourth consecutive day in pegging a six-week low at 1.3080 before recouping back above 1.3100 amid a near 2% drop in oil prices. USOil fell from the $41.88 highs seen on Tuesday to a low of $40.86 in London morning trade. The API reported a 600k bbl weekly inventory build after the close yesterday, versus expectations for a 2.0 mln bbl draw, which weighed on prices some. Inventories at the Cushing, OK storage hub were up by 1.2 mln bbls. Concerns over Covid related demand destruction, along with increased crude production from Libya, should keep a cap on prices for now. The EIA weekly inventory report is due at 14:30 GMT.Canada’s CPI accelerated and retail sales grew, but both measures were on the tame side. CPI rose 0.5% y/y in September after the 0.1% gain in August. But CPI dipped -0.1% on an m/m basis (nsa) after the -0.1% slip in August and flat (0.0%) reading in July. CPI last rose on an m/m basis in June, rising 0.8%. The average of the three core CPI measures was 1.7% y/y, matching the 1.7% average seen in August. The CPI report remains consistent with ample slack in the economy, with a long way to go before activity returns to pre-pandemic levels across all industries. Meanwhile, retail sales rose 0.4% in August (m/m, sa) after a 1.0% gain in July (revised from 0.6%). Statistics Canada’s preliminary estimate is for little change in September retail sales. Sales have returned to more typical growth rates following the initial pop that followed the reopening of the economy — sales surged 21.2% in May after plunging -24.8% in April and falling -10.0% in March. Retail sales jumped 22.5% in June, an all time high growth rate. The ex-autos sales aggregate gained 0.5% in August. Both measures undershot expectations for stronger gains. Tame annual CPI growth along with the deceleration in retail sales is consistent with steady, accommodative policy from the BoC for an extended period.Elsewhere, BTCUSD moved to 2020 highs after Paypal confirmed it will allow cryptocurrency buying, selling and shopping on its network.¹ The press release stated it “signaled its plans to significantly increase cryptocurrency’s utility by making it available as a funding source for purchases at its 26 million merchants worldwide. The company is introducing the ability to buy, hold and sell select cryptocurrencies, initially featuring Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash and Litecoin, directly within the PayPal digital wallet. The service will be available to PayPal account holders in the U.S. in the coming weeks.”Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

re racISM Seek the truth. Confront the lies.   Any white people who are racist are racist out of fear ... any 'supremacy' beliefs are compensatory.  Same with blacks... Seek the truth. Confront the lies.   Contrary to what you've been taught in school and now in culture, white people did not invent slavery.  Nor have they applied the most consistently horrific practices of slave owners, historically or currently.   Contrary to what you've been taught in school and now in culture, in fact, white people have done more to eradicate slavery / humans as property from the face of the earth than any other race - ever.   Seek the truth.  Confront the lies.  If you're white, don’t allow yourself to be guilted.   That just compounds the issues and divisions.   You are not individually or collectively responsible for the exploitation of minorities by a small percentage of psychopaths who happen to also be the same ‘race’ as you are ...  just because black people’s ‘self esteem’  generally needs to rise - especially those ‘trapped’ on the concrete plantations - is no reason your’s needs to fall ... don’t play into ivory tower false dialectic psyops designed to enslave EVERYBODY!   “A man’s rights rest in three boxes: the ballot box, the jury box, and the cartridge box.”  Frederick Douglass, 1867  civil rights leader in response to post-Civil War segregation laws... my god was that boy and this boy unwoke or what