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  1. Date : 21st October 2019. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 21st October 2019.The week ahead will definitely not be a quite one, with high anxiety on Brexit, the last ECB policy meeting before Mario draghi hand over the ECB presidency to Christine Lagarde and few significant US data prior FED on October 30.Monday – 21 October 2019 Producer Price Index (EUR, GMT 06:00) – The German PPI is expected to drop to -0.2% for September. As expected readings would result in a y/y loss of 0.3% for headline PPI, versus a 0.3% pace for August. Tuesday – 22 October 2019 Retail Sales (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Canadian sales are expected to have increased by 0.6% m/m in August compared to 0.4% m/m in July, with the ex-autos component down -0.3%. Existing Home Sales (USD, GMT 14:00) – Home sales have regained their status as an important indicator after the financial crisis and can have a strong effect on the markets. The release is expected to record a slight -0.2% pull-back in September to a 5.480 mln pace, after a bounce to 5.490 mln in August. In Q2, we saw an average sales pace of 5.287 mln, and we expect a better 5.463 mln pace in Q3. Thursday – 24 October 2019 Services and Manufacturing PMI (EUR, GMT 08:30-09:00) – September PMIs showed a marked contraction in manufacturing activity and a sharp slowdown in services sector growth. This picture is likely to be seen again in the preliminary readings for October, as German Manufacturing PMI has been forecast at 40 and composite at 49.2, which it is still below neutral. Meanwhile, Services PMI is expected to fall to 51.2. The overall Markit for Eurozone is seen at 49.4, signalling stagnation and highlighting the risk that the weakness in manufacturing sectors is spreading. Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference (EUR, GMT 11:45 & 12:30) – The ECB is widely expected to keep policy settings on hold after Draghi’s parting shot at the last meeting. The outgoing president pushed through another deposit rate cut and an open ended asset purchase program against the opposition of some of the more senior national central bank heads and incoming president Lagarde will face the task of uniting the board and dealing with growing demands for a comprehensive revision of the ECB’s policy setting framework and in particular the inflation target. Draghi’s last press conference meanwhile will likely focus heavily on calls for fiscal measures to boost the economy in a challenging international environment. Durable Goods (USD, GMT 12:30) – Durable goods orders are expected to fall -1.8% in September, after gains of 0.2% in August, thanks to an expected transportation orders drop. Boeing orders rose to a still-lean 25 from 18 in August. Services and Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 13:45) – Preliminary Manufacturing are expected to slip in October, to 50.1 from 51.1, while Services PMIs are likely to rise to 51.3 from 50.9, indicating a slowdown in the sector that has been hit by global trade tensions. Friday – 25 October 2019 German IFO (EUR, GMT 08:00) – In September, the German IFO business confidence came in slightly higher than expected at 94.6. In October, however, the overall business climate reading is seen slightly lower at 94.4. The more forward looking expectations reading is anticipated at 91.8 from 90.8. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  2. Date : 14th October 2019. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 14th October 2019.No-deal Brexit risks are looking more real than ever, with reports suggesting that talks will officially break down this week ahead of the upcoming EU summit on 17 and 18 October. Elsewhere, further US data and Fedspeak could provide more clues about the possibility of a Fed rate cut. Tuesday – 15 October 2019 Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – September’s Chinese CPI is seen unchanged at 0.7% while the PPI figure is expected to decline further to -1.2%. The overall reading for CPI is estimated to post a gain up to 2.9% y/y. ILO & Average Earnings Index 3m/y (GBP, GMT 08:30) – UK Earnings with the bonus-excluded figure are expected to slip to 3.7% y/y in the three months to August, down from 3.8%y/y. UK ILO unemployment is expected steady at 3.8%, which was the lowest rate seen since December 1974. ZEW Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Economic Sentiment for October is projected at -27 from the -22.5 seen last month, as the current conditions indicator for Germany turned negative. The overall Eurozone reading though expected to declne further to -33.0 slightly from -22.4. A lower than expected outcome, ties in with the stagnation in market sentiment at the start of the month. Consumer Price Index (NZD, GMT 21:45) – One of the most important figures for FX markets, the y/y CPI for Q3 is expected to come out at 1.4%, compared to 1.7% in the previous quarter. Wednesday – 16 October 2019 Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The UK CPI is expected to rebound to a 1.8% y/y rate in September after dipping to 1.7% in August from 2.1% in July. Weakness in sterling from year-go levels should impact some offset to disinflationary forces. Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The Euro Area CPI is expected to be confirmed at just 0.9% y/y in the final release for September, although the deceleration in the headline rate over the month was largely due to base effects from energy prices, with core inflation actually moving up to 1.0% y/y from 0.9% y/y in August. Consumer Price Index (CAD, GMT 12:30) – The Canadian CPI index is expected to have increased to 2%y/y compared to 1.9%y/y in August. The core CPI measures remained near 2.0%. Retail Sales (USD, GMT 12:30) – Retail Sales are an important determinant of consumer spending thus making it a leading indicator for overall economic growth. Consensus expectations suggest that we should have increased by 0.2% in September, for both the retail sales headline and the ex-auto figure, following a 0.4% August headline rise with a flat ex-auto figure. Fedspeak: Fed Brainard (USD, GMT 19:00) Thursday – 17 October 2019 European Council Summit on Brexit Employment Data (AUD, GMT 01:30) – While the Unemployment Rate is projected to have flipped at 5.3% in September, Employment change is expected to have eased, increasing by 10K compared to 34.7K last month. Retail Sales ex Fuel (GBP, GMT 08:30) – Retail Sales in the UK are anticipated to increase in September, reaching 3.0% on a y/y basis, and 0.5% on a m/m basis, from the 2.7% and -0.2% respectively Housing Data and Building Permits (USD, GMT 12:30) – Housing starts should drop back to a 1.282 mln pace in September, after a sharp rise to a 1.364 mln clip in August with the help of lower mortgage rates. Permits similarly are expected to slow to 1.370 mln in September, after popping to 1.425 mln in September. Permits have shown a solid growth path into Q3 despite a July starts set-back. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (USD, GMT 12:30) – The Philly Fed index is seen falling to 7.0 from 12.0 in September, versus a 1-year high of 21.8 in July and a 33-month low of -4.1 in February. The late-September producer sentiment surveys deteriorated significantly after firmness in the early-September reports, and the early-October data will be closely scrutinized to see if this pull-back continued. The “soft data” surveys are at risk of a possible impact from the UAW-GM strike, alongside the ongoing headwind from troubles abroad. Fedspeak: Fed Bowman and Fed Williams (USD, GMT 18:00 and 20:20) Friday – 18 October 2019 European Council Summit on Brexit China Gross Domestic Product (CNY, GMT 02:00)- Chinese GDP is projected to see additional moderation to a 6.1% y/y pace in Q3, from 6.2% in Q2. Industrial Production and Retail Sales (CNY, GMT 02:00) – The September industrial production is forecast at 4.5% y/y from 4.4% previously, while September retail sales likely improved to 7.7% y/y from 7.5%. Fedspeak: Fed Kaplan and Fed Clarida (USD, GMT 15:00 and 15:30) Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  3. Date : 10th October 2019. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 10th October 2019.FX News Today US yields corrected slightly from yesterday’s highs. Asian bond markets remained under pressure, while stock markets traded mixed with conflicting trade headlines making for a jumpy session. Bloomberg reported that the US is weighing to agree to a previously hammered out currency pact as a team of Chinese negotiators, including Vice Premier Liu He arrived in Washington. There were also reports in the US that the Trump administration will grant licences that would allow US firms to sell no sensitive supplies to Huawei. US stock futures are in red, with the headlines accompanying the trade talks, likely to keep markets volatile and jittery. GER30 and UK100 futures are slightly higher, though, with Brexit developments in focus as UK PM Johnson is travelling to Ireland in search for a breakthrough on the Irish border conundrum. German trade surplus declined as exports dropped -1.8% m/m in August. ECB’s Rehn plays down divisions at ECB, banks on Lagarde to heal the rift. The Governing Council member said the FT story that said Draghi ignored advice from his own officials to push through the restart of asset purchases was “greatly exaggerated”, adding that Lagarde’s team-building ability should help to bridge the splits at the council. The WTI future fell back to $52.54 per barrel. Charts of the dayTechnician’s Corner EURUSD rally above 1.099 in the European open. The 1.1000 level remains key for EURUSD, with Wednesday marking the fifth consecutive session that EURUSD has tried and failed to break through the level. A decisive close above this level could strengthen the positive bias for EUR. USDJPY was a bit stronger through the Asia session, rallying to 107.76 highs, and remaining above the 107.40 since then. Better risk taking levels brought buyers in, as hopes for progress on the US/China trade war got a lift into Thursday’s high-level meetings in Washington. China said that it was open to a partial trade agreement. Given the history of the talks however, a smooth outcome is anything but guaranteed, and Yen bears will have to remain on their toes. USDCAD headed to 1.3310 down from Asian highs of 1.3344. The modest sell-off came as oil prices rallied on news there may be some progress on the US-China trade front. The 200-day moving average at 1.3288 remains a good support level, with the pairing holding above the level for nearly a week now. Further oil price gains could see a break though, with the next downside target being the 1.3260-70 region. Main Macro Events Today Gross Domestic Product and Manufacturing Production (GBP, GMT 08:30) – GDP is the economy’s most important figure. August’s GDP is expected to lower to 0% following the 0.3% reading from last month. Meanwhile, Industrial and Manufacturing Production will be out as well. These two indices are expected to have fallen, with both providing a downwards contribution of 0.1% m/m in August. ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts (EUR, GMT 11:30) – Event of the Week –The ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, similar to the FOMC minutes, provide information with regards to the policymakers’ rationale behind their decisions. In the last ECB meeting, ECB not only cut the deposit rate but also announced a new open-ended asset purchase program, worth EUR 20 bln a month, while removing the time frame in the rate guidance. Consumer Price Index ex Energy and Food (USD, GMT 12:30) – The Consumer Price Index is suggestive of how the economy is performing, with expectations standing flat for the September headline release. A 0.2% core price increase is expected, following respective August readings of 0.1% and 0.3%. Support and Resistance levelsAlways trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  4. Date : 9th October 2019. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 9th October 2019.FX News Today• European Outlook: Stock market sentiment remains very cautious with Brexit risks and signs of fresh US-Sino tensions ahead of this week’s trade talks weighing on confidence.• Talks between the UK and the EU on trade are expected to officially break down this week, with “leaked” memos out of Westminster putting the blame firmly in the EU’s court and threatening those EU countries that support another delay of the Brexit date. UK PM Johnson is due to meet Irish Pm Varadkar later.• Overnight – US-China relations stressed further as new visa restrictions by the US were introduced. Trade talks on going and high level contact still scheduled Thursday & Friday.Equities markets fell 1.5% in the US and Nikkei has closed down 0.6%.• USD keeps the bid due to safe haven status, even after a Dovish Powell hints at rate cut (s) and starting to repurchase assets again.Charts of the dayTechnician’s Corner EURUSD pulled back to 1.0945 lows into the London close, after failing to decisively take out the key 1.1000 level over the past four sessions. US based accounts were sellers from near the open, stepping in over 1.0990. Safe-haven flows into Dollars and Treasuries were noted. Last Thursday’s 1.0940 low is the near term downside target, followed by Wednesday’s 1.0904 bottom. Trades on London open at 1.0960 pivot point. Cable Cable was crushed to one-month low of 1.2195 in N.Y. morning trade, down from London highs over 1.2300. The BBC cited a UK government source saying that Germany’s Merkel conveyed to PM Johnson that a deal based on his government’s proposals was “overwhelmingly unlikely.”. The development makes it a near certainty that Johnson won’t have a deal by the October-19 deadline set out in the newly created parliamentary bill that would require the prime minister to ask the EU for an extension in Brexit to January 31. Main Macro Events Today JOLTS Job Openings (USD, GMT 14:00) – JOLTS define Job Openings as all positions that have not be filled on the last business day of the month. July’s JOLTS job openings came out at 7.217M. FOMC Minutes (USD, GMT 18:00) – The FOMC Minutes report provides the FOMC Members’ opinions regarding the US economic outlook and any views regarding future rate hikes. FOMC trimmed rates 25 bps, as expected, but with 3 dissents. In the last FOMC statement, on July 31 decision showed mixed views, two dissents for steady policy, two participants who wanted 50 bps in cuts and several wanted steady stance. Support and Resistance levelsAlways trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  5. Date : 8th October 2019. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 8th October 2019.FX News Today German industrial production better than expected at 0.3% m/m. The unexpected expansion in August comes despite ongoing contraction in orders and a deterioration in business sentiment. European Outlook: European stock markets closed with broad gains, despite mounting signs that U.K. PM Johnson is positioning for a failure in Brexit talks with the EU, which shouldn’t come as a surprise, but makes the risk of a no-deal scenario ever more tangible as Johnson lays the ground for a “people-versus-parliament” election. European stock futures are moving higher in tandem with U.S. futures after a positive session in Asia. World Bank warns Brexit, European recession will hit world growth; The head of the World Bank warned global growth could come in lower than the 2.6% predicted in June amid “Brexit, Europe’s recession and trade uncertainty”. Charts of the dayTechnician’s Corner EURUSD traded sideways through the NY morning session, ranging between 1.0982 and near two-week highs of 1.1000, in the Asian session the pair fell back to 1.0966. The Dollar overall appears to be showing signs of peaking, with incoming U.S. data last week showing significant indications of economic slowing. Europe has its own growth issues as well of course, though with markets pricing in another Fed rate cut at the end of October, EURUSD may have some room to run to the upside in the coming sessions. USDJPY topped at 107.07 in US session following comments from White House advisor Kudlow, who said that a US-China deal was possible and negotiators could make progress this week, and Washington is open to looking at China’s proposals. The comments came after China over the weekend indicated it is not open to a broad scale trade agreement. USD strength continued overnight with the pair touching 107.44. Main Macro Events Today Producer Price Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – The Headline PPI is expected to drop at -0.2% for September, with a 0.2% rise in the core index. As expected readings would result in a y/y gain of 1.5% for headline PPI, versus a 1.8% pace of August. We see y/y headline readings in a 1.0%-2.3% range over coming months, while core prices should oscillate in a 2.0%-2.5% range. Support and Resistance levelsAlways trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  6. Date : 4th October 2019. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 4th October 2019.FX News Today EU to give Johnson one week to improve Brexit proposal. According to a Bloomberg, the EU’s chief negotiator Barnier told a private meeting of European senior diplomats that Boris Johnson’s latest blueprint for the Irish border fell far short of his conditions for a deal. The U.K. was given a week to improve on the plans. European Outlook: Bund futures are fractionally higher ahead of the official open in Europe while Treasuries held yesterday’s gains. EGBs bounced back yesterday but the combined sell off in Gilts and FTSE 100 especially on Wednesday highlights that Brexit risks also raise stagflation concerns and has the potential to send all U.K. assets lower. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are higher, with the DAX future underperforming slightly, as the main index returns from yesterday’s holiday. EUR-USD is trading at 1.0969 as markets look ahead to the U.S. payroll report today, which will dominate the session, especially amid the lack of data releases in Europe. Charts of the dayTechnician’s Corner EURUSD opened the session at lows near 1.0950, and was steady into the U.S. services ISM. From there, a three-year low outcome saw the pairing vault to 1.0999 highs, as the Dollar overall, and Treasury yields headed lower. The pairing steadied between the highs and 1.0975 through the remainder of the session. Major Dollar pairings are liable to turn sideways through the overnight session, as traders anticipate the U.S. employment report on Friday. The jobs report may go some way in solidifying the growth outlook and the Fed’s policy path, and hence, future USD direction. USDJPY bounced from near one-month lows of 106.87 seen into the N.Y. open, topping at 107.12 into the ISM data. The pairing slid to new trend lows of 106.48 after the data, taking its cue from a sharply lower Wall Street and a dive in Treasury yields. Heightened odds for another Fed rate cut at the end of October will likely keep a cap on the pairing for the time being. Main Macro Events Today U.S. Employment Preview: It’s all about the September employment report. The data will go some way in solidifying the markets’ growth outlook and the Fed’s policy path after a rash of weaker than expected numbers on manufacturing and services fueled worries over a recession. But the markets have already priced in a Fed rate cut at the October 29, 30 FOMC, so this report isn’t likely to alter that outlook measurably. Expectations are for a 145k rise in non-farm payrolls, versus the previous 130k, though recent data suggests downside risks. Hourly earnings are seen rising 0.3% from 0.4% in August, while the unemployment rate should dip a tenth to 3.6% (lowest since the 3.5% for December 1969). Support and Resistance levelsAlways trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  7. Date : 3rd October 2019. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 3rd October 2019.FX News Today US set to impose tariffs on USD 7.5 bln of EU goods, ranging from aircraft to agricultural products. Risk aversion is sending global stock markets in a sell-off while the announcement of US tariffs will add to the negative backdrop today. Wall Street closed with sharp losses yesterday following also the poor jobs numbers, which added to concerns over the outlook. BoJ board member Funo: “BoJ must maintain sufficiently low interest rates for a prolonged period”, while saying that the BoJ will prevent any risks to the inflation target from materialising. US futures are slightly higher, but European futures remain in the red and the risk of further corrections on stock markets seems pretty high. UK100 down by more than 3%. USDJPY is trading at 107.16 after tumbling on risk aversion yesterday. The WTI future meanwhile is trading at just $52.52 per barrel after selling off for 8 straight days. The UK curve flattened, while spillover effects also saw Bunds moving up, as markets prepare for additional fiscal spending on both sides of the channel. BREXIT: PM Johnson’s latest Brexit plan is not expected to bring a real breakthrough in talks and EU officials are reportedly considering how the October 31 deadline can be extended, even if Johnsons refuses to ask for an extension. Charts of the dayTechnician’s Corner EURUSD printed 1-week highs of 1.0962 after opening at 1.0920, up from Tuesday’s trend low of 1.0879. The Euro’s move higher appears to be more of a case of Dollar weakness than Euro strength following the weak U.S. manufacturing ISM on Tuesday, and the not overly impressive ADP jobs report this morning. U.S. recession fears have been on the rise again, resulting in lower Treasury yields. Traders will likely hold fire into the end of the week, to see how the services ISM on Thursday, and the September employment report on Friday play out. EUR-USD resistance is at 1.1000. USDJPY fell to six-session lows of 107.17, down from opening highs of 107.60. The pairing has so far found support ahead of the 50-day moving average at 107.05, though today’s severe risk-off conditions, including a sharp Wall Street sell-off, and lower Treasury yields, should keep Dollar gains contained. U.S./China trade uncertainty can be expected to limit upside as well. The pairing has been inside a 108.50 to 107.00 trading range for nearly a month, and will need a decisive break of either of those levels to see a shift in sentiment. For now, given all the uncertainties facing the markets, we look for the risk sensitive pairing to test downside support. Main Macro Events Today ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM-NMI index is expected to fall to 54.5 in September from 56.4 in August and a 19-month low of 56.1 in March, versus a 13-year high of 60.8 in September of last year. The sentiment surveys have been erratic in recent months, likely due to competing perspectives on the trade war, troubles abroad, and stock price gyrations. Jobless Claims (USD, GMT 14:00) – Initial jobless claims are expected to increase 5k to 218k for the week of September 27, after edging up 3k to 213k in the week of September 21. Part of the prior week’s gain likely reflects some lift from the effects of the UAW strike at GM which began September 16 that included some 49k workers. Strikers don’t qualify for benefits, but suppliers to GM do. Beyond the strike, claims look poised to fluctuate around 212k in September, which matches the 212k cycle-low in July that was also seen last September. We saw prior claims averages of 216k in August, 222k in June, and 217k in May. Support and Resistance levelsAlways trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  8. Date : 2nd October 2019. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 2nd Sepember 2019.FX News Today Wall Street kicked off Q4 on bearish footing with the Dow dropping 1.2% to 26,570. The weaker than expected ISM manufacturing index to 47.8, a second straight month in contraction, rekindled recession worries. Yields are still above Monday’s close, after weak demand in yesterday’s auctions triggered a sharp rise in long yields. South Korean indices were hit by reports that North Korea fired what seemed a submarine based ballistic missile of its eastern coast, added to the negative risk backdrop after the S&P closed at a one months low. US futures are trying to move higher, GER30 and UK100 futures are in negative territory. Brexit: UK Prime Minister Johnson, admitted that customs checks would be the “reality” of Brexit, even though he dismissed an apparent leak of his government’s detailed plans for the post-Brexit Irish border — which involve customs checks on both sides of the border — as being inaccurate. Gilts outperformed and UK yields declined yesterday after hopes of a breakthrough on the Brexit front were crashed and political headlines will remain the main driver for UK markets The BoE lays the ground for a rate cut even without a no-deal Brexit scenario. Charts of the dayTechnician’s Corner GBPUSD pulled back from earlier highs, as Bloomberg, cited a Buzzfeed tweet saying according to an EU Commission spokesman, the earlier report that the EU was considering a time-limited Irish backstop, was not true. Cable fell to 1.2260 from earlier highs near 1.2340. EURUSD bounced to 1.0908 highs into the N.Y. open. The Euro has printed 5-straight session of lower daily highs and lows, a bearish signal, and a failure to trade above Monday’s 1.0948 highs today will likely embolden EUR bears going forward. Fundamentally, the US economy remains head and shoulders above Europe’s, while a dovish ECB and interest rate differentials solidly in favor of the Dollar, we look for further EURUSD losses going forward. Main Macro Events Today ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (USD, GMT 12:15) – The ADP is expected to report a 145k increase in private payrolls for September following the better than expected 195k increase in August. Risk is for a weaker headline print after the miss in the September ISM, that included a decline in the employment sub-component. Friday’s September nonfarm payroll report is now crucial for the markets’ expectations on the FOMC, as another 25 bp rate cut is again being priced in with greater than a 50-50 probability. Support and Resistance levelsAlways trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  9. Date : 25th Sepember 2019. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 25th Sepember 2019.FX News Today RBNZ on hold with dovish twist. As widely expected New Zealand’s central bank kept policy on hold with the key rate unchanged at 1%. The statement said, however, that there was more scope for monetary and fiscal stimulus, while saying it was “pleased to see” the the NZD’s depreciation Sentiment started to settle overnight, amid signs of further conciliatory moves that keep hopes of progress on the trade front alive. Asian markets are up from lows and U.S. futures are moving higher, after yesterday’s sell off on Wall Street. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are in the red, however, as Boris Johnson returns from New York to deal with the fallout from yesterday’s Supreme Court ruling that said the suspension of parliament was unlawful. MPs are set to return to Westminister today and another Brexit extension with new elections in the U.K. in November or December seem increasingly likely. The prolonged uncertainty on the Brexit front meanwhile is adding to geopolitical trade tensions and leaving its mark on economic developments on both sides of the channel. The risk of a recession in Europe is looking very real. Charts of the dayTechnician’s Corner EURUSD spent the morning session between 1.0994 and 1.1015, later climbing to 1.1020 highs in afternoon dealings. The highs came following reports that House Democrats are considering a special committee in order to attempt to impeach president Trump, which weighed on the Dollar overall. Bigger picture, with European growth fading and the U.S. economy still chugging along fairly well, EUR-USD is set to remain in sell-the-rally mode. Monday’s 1.0966 low is now support, with the 20-day moving average at 1.1028 marking resistance. USDJPY: fell to better than two-week lows of 107.05 from pre-open highs of 107.79. The fall has come on the back of a bout of risk-off conditions, with sliding stocks initiated by Trump bashing China on trade from the UN, then talk that House Democrats are considering a special committee to impeach Trump. The pairing fell through its 20-day moving average at 107.24, though found some buyers ahead of the 50-day moving average, which currently sits at 107.06 USDCHF During Tuesday, the Swiss franc continued to gain support from a lack of confidence in the global growth outlook, especially after recent weak global manufacturing data. The Swiss currency & gold made net gains on Tuesday and remain underpinned with the franc weakening only slightly on Wednesday as US political developments added to investor concerns with the dollar around 0.9870. Main Macro Events Today Non-Monetary Policy Meeting (EUR, GMT 07:00) – The monthly meeting of the ECB – with a speech from member Coeure to open events. SNB – Quarterly Bulletin (CHF, GMT 13:00) and ZEW Survey (08:00 GMT) – With political developments on both sides of the Atlantic moving at a pace the safe haven status of the CHF could receive a bid with positive news flow today. Support and Resistance levelsAlways trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  10. Date : 24th Sepember 2019. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 24th Sepember 2019.FX News Today Sentiment stabilises as markets returned from yesterday’s holiday. Asian stock markets moved mostly higher, as there are lingering hopes of progress ahead of high level US-Sino trade talks next month. Japan’s Jibun Bank Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index slipped to just 48.9. Together with the sharp decline in the German manufacturing PMI this will add to concerns over the outlook for the global economy. ECB President Draghi yesterday signalled the readiness to act again. Lagarde warned that trade tensions are the biggest threat to the global economy. China’s central bank Governor Yi Gang said in a press briefing that China is not in a rush to roll out massive rate cuts or QE like some other central banks”. GER30 and UK100 futures are posting slight gains, in tandem with US futures after a cautious move higher in Asia. Brexit developments also remain in focus as the Supreme Court in London is set to announce its verdict on the suspension of parliament today. Charts of the dayTechnician’s Corner EURUSD bottomed at 8-session lows of 1.0966 into US session, down from 1.1025 highs. Weak European PMIs took the pairing to session lows, though since then, short covering has been noted, seeing a bounce to 1.0996 highs. There has been talk of a large 1.1000 option expiry on Thursday, which may see EURUSD center on that level until then. Sell-the-rally remains in place however, as the EU economy sputters, and as the Dollar continues to benefit from strong interest rate differentials. GBPUSD: Cable carved out a fresh 6-day low at 1.2414, extending the correction from the 2-month peak seen on Friday at 1.2582. Markets will continue to demand a hefty Brexit discount. Markets are also waiting on the judgement of the UK’s Supreme Court, up today, on Boris Johnson’s controversial move to shut down Parliament for a 5-week period, with the government having appealed a ruling by Scotland’s highest court that the move was illegal. There is a chance that, it will agree with the recent court rulings seen in England and Northern Ireland, that the matter was “non-justiciable” — being political rather than a legal matter. USOIL prices are down by over 8% from week-ago levels, but remain up by 6.7% from month-ago levels, and are up 27.2% on the year-to-date. News that some of Saudi’s production and distribution facilities will be back up and running as soon as next week weighed on crude prices. This comes with the US announcing that it is bolstering its military presence in Saudi Arabia for defensive and deterrence purposes Main Macro Events Today German IFO (EUR, GMT 08:00) – German IFO business confidence fell further in August and more than anticipated, with the headline number now at the lowest level since Nov 2012. In September, the overall business climate reading is seen slightly higher at 95.1 from 94.3. So far the sector breakdown of the IFO still shows that optimists outnumber pessimists in both services and construction, but with the trade reading now also in negative territory and services confidence especially falling sharply in August, the balance of risks is clearly tilted to the downside. CB Consumer Confidence (USD, GMT 14:00) – The Consumer Confidence is expected to ease to 134.0 in September from 135.1 in August and an 8-month high of 135.8 in July. A drop-back is expected in the current conditions reading to 173.0 from a 19-year high of 177.2 in August. The jobs strength diffusion index is poised for a drop-back from a remarkably lofty 19-year high in August of 39.4. Overall, confidence measures remain historically high. BoJ Minutes (JPY, GMT 23:50) – The BoJ Minutes are expected to shed some light regarding whether Japanese policymakers are willing to consider rate cuts in the coming months. Support and Resistance levelsAlways trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided
  11. Date : 23rd September 2019. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 23rd September 2019.With nearly all central bank meetings out of the way it should be a data-focused week, although Brexit developments still have the potential to shake things up. The main scenario continues to assume a smooth Brexit transition, but business investment is now expected to continue to fall significantly as geopolitical trade tensions and Brexit uncertainty leave their mark. Nonetheless, the geopolitical situation in the Mideast is fragile, especially with the US openly considering taking military action against Iran. Monday – 23 September 2019 Services and Manufacturing PMI (EUR, GMT 07:30-08:00) – Aug manufacturing PMI confirmed at 47.0, vs 46.5 in July, Services PMI revised up to 53.5 from 53.4. This picture is likely to be seen again in the preliminary readings for September, as Manufacturing PMI has been forecast at 47.5, still below neutral. Meanwhile Services PMI is expected to fall to 53.3. Services and Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 13:45) – Preliminary Manufacturing are expected to slip in September, to 50.1 from 50.3, while Services PMIs are likely to fall below 50, to 49.6, indicating a potential recession in the sector that has been hit by global trade tensions. Tuesday – 24 September 2019 German IFO (EUR, GMT 08:00) – German IFO business confidence fell further in August and more than anticipated, with the headline number now at the lowest level since Nov 2012. In September, the overall business climate reading is seen slightly higher at 95.1 from 94.3. So far the sector breakdown of the IFO still shows that optimists outnumber pessimists in both services and construction, but with the trade reading now also in negative territory and services confidence especially falling sharply in August, the balance of risks is clearly tilted to the downside. CB Consumer Confidence (USD, GMT 14:00) – The Consumer Confidence is expected to ease to 134.0 in September from 135.1 in August and an 8-month high of 135.8 in July. A drop-back is expected in the current conditions reading to 173.0 from a 19-year high of 177.2 in August. The jobs strength diffusion index is poised for a drop-back from a remarkably lofty 19-year high in August of 39.4. Overall, confidence measures remain historically high. BoJ Minutes (JPY, GMT 23:50) – The BoJ Minutes are expected to shed some light regarding whether Japanese policymakers are willing to consider rate cuts in the coming months. Wednesday – 25 September 2019 Interest Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Statement (NZD, GMT 02:00) – The RBNZ cut rates by an unexpectedly aggressive 50 bps to a record low 1.00% in August. Governor Orr said negative rates may be needed to stimulate the economy, keeping the door wide open to further aggressive easing measures. The RBNZ is largely anticipated to keep rates on hold at 1.00%. Thursday – 26 September 2019 US Gross Domestic Product (USD, GMT 12:30) – The final Q2 GDP growth is expected to be confirmed at 2.0% annualized, with a $6 bln hike in public construction that accompanies boosts of $2 bln for consumption and $1 bln each for intellectual property investment and exports. We expect a -$2 bln revision for nonresidential investment and a -$1 bln revision to residential construction, leaving a net $7 bln upward GDP revision. Tokyo CPI and Production Data (JPY, GMT 23:30) – The country’s main leading indicator of inflation is expected to have rise to 0.8% y/y in September from 0.6% last month, and to slip to 0.5% y/y from 0.7% in the CPI ex Fresh Food reading. Friday – 27 September 2019 Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (USD, GMT 12:30) – A 0.5% gain is anticipated in personal income in August after a 0.1% increase in July, alongside a 0.2% rise in August consumption that followed a big 0.6% July gain. Durable Goods (USD, GMT 12:30) – Durable goods orders are expected to fall -1.6% in August, after gains of 2.0% in July and 1.8% in June, thanks to a -5.0% transportation orders drop after two monthly gains. Boeing orders dropped back to just 6 from 31 in July, with continued weakness due to the hit from problems with the Boeing 737 Max that has prompted buyers to delay new orders. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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