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  1. Date : 13th May 2022. Market Update – May 13 – USD dominates, Stocks lick their wounds. USD holds at highs following hot CPI & PPI data but with signs the peak may have been reached. Stocks stalled their recent declines, closing flat in the US and bouncing in Asian markets (Nikkei +2.6%), Yields climbed as risk appetite improved, Fed Chair Powell still flagged half-percentage point interest rate increases at the next two policy meetings, adding that the Fed is “prepared to do more!” and that stable prices are the “bedrock” of the economy but it will cause “some pain”. Oil continued to rally on supply concerns whilst Gold dipped to within $10 of $1800. Kuroda maintains dovish guidance even as Inflation moves higher, Russia threatens “technical retaliation” as Finland seeks NATO membership, Sweden to follow? Putin “humiliating himself on the world stage” – UK Foreign Sec. Truss. USDIndex rallied to within 5 ticks of 105.00 and remains at 20-year highs at 104.75 up from 103.60 last Friday. Equities – USA500 -5.10 (0.25%) at 3930, US500FUTS at 3955 now. COIN +8.9%, TSLA -0.82%, (Musk would not back TRUMP in 2024). APPLE -2.69%, GM -4.59%. Yields rallied, 10-yr closed at 2.817%, significantly below key 3.00% level. Trades up at 2.89% Oil & Gold both had weak & volatile sessions – USOil rallied to test $108.00 earlier today from $98.00 on Wednesday. Gold slump continued with a test of $1810 on open today from highs this week at $1885, struggles at $1822 now. No safe-haven bid. Bitcoin languishes at $30K now, but up from $26.5k. 6th consecutive week lower. FX markets – EURUSD up from 1.0355 to 1.0400, parity calls rising. USDJPY dived from 130.00, to 127.50 yesterday now back to 128.70 and Cable continues to struggle at 1.2335. AUD again outperformed in Asia. Overnight – JPY Money Supply better than expected & French M/M CPI in-line at 0.4%. Today – US Export/Imports Prices, UoM (Prelim.) data, Speeches from ECB’s Schnabel, de Guindos & Fed’s Kashkari. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.74%) Rallied from lows at 87.30 yesterday as risk appetite raised it’s head to 89.00 ( and next resistance) earlier. Now back to 88.55. MAs aligning higher, MACD signal line & histogram moving higher & testing 0 line, RSI 48 & rising, H1 ATR 0.346, Daily ATR 1.67. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell HF Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  2. Date : 12th May 2022. Market Update – May 12 – Tech Trounced as Inflation Possibly Peaks. USD rallies to new highs following much volatility after US CPI data for April was lower than March but higher than expected, rekindling concern that aggressive central bank action will weigh on growth. Stocks sharply into the red, Yields spiked sharply higher as talk of Treasury rout also cools with 10-yr back under 3.00%. Oil jumped after Russia sanctioned 31 companies & on recession fears. Gold slightly up, but holds below $1860. Bitcoin tumbled to new 16-month low. UK economy shrinks in March, grows 0.8% in Q1. Nomura estimated this week that 41 Chinese cities are in full or partial lockdowns, making up 30% of the country’s GDP. Reuters: “Property developer Sunac China missed a bond interest payment and will miss more as China’s real estate sector remains in the grip of a credit crunch.” New Zealand inflation survey steady. USDIndex spiked to 104.20 & holds its bid trading at 104 now. Equities – USA500 slid below the 4000 level before bouncing back, into the green with the USA30. But all of the indexes crashed into the close, paced by the USA100’s -3.18% plunge. Nikkei dropped 1.8%, the ASX also -1.8%. Yields had jumped to 2.839% and 3.07%, respectively, in the immediate aftermath of the data. 10-year rate closed 6.5 bps lower at 2.920%, with the 2-year up 3 bps to 2.64%. Oil breached $106.23 before reversing to $103.46 (PP of the day). Bitcoin fire-sale of risky assets as rate hikes gather steam, fell 7% to $26,673. FX markets – EURUSD down to 1.0489, USDJPY drifted further on EU open to 129.25, & Cable retests 1.2210. AUD & NZD at 2 year lows. Today – US PPI & Initial Claims, Speeches from BOC Gravelle. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) ETHUSD (-12.47%) Down to June 2021 low, at 1787. MAs aligning lower, MACD signal line & histogram extend lower, RSI 27 OS, H1 ATR 90.59, Daily ATR 236.65. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  3. Date : 11th May 2022. Market Update – May 11 – All About the Inflation Outlook. USD holds at highs and on standby for US CPI later, Stocks stalled their recent declines, Yields cool a tad as talk of Treasury rout also cools with 10-yr back under 3.00%. Oil paused its 9% slump on EU Oil ban and OPEC talk of capacity issues. Gold under $1850. Asian shares off 2-year lows (Nikkei +0.18%). Chinese Inflation hotter than expected, Biden supports FED actions, more Fed members talk rate hikes, NZ housing market shows signs of cooling. US House of Representatives approves $400bn support package for Ukraine as US intelligence chief talks of Putin preparing for “long war”. USDIndex remains under 104.00 but holds its bid trading at 103.75 now. Equities – USA500 +9.81 (0.25%) at 4001.05, US500FUTS at 4015 now. Peloton -8.7% @ $12.70 (ATH was $171), COIN -12.6%, TSLA +1.64%, TWTR -1.64% (Musk would allow TRUMP back). APPLE (+1.61%) retired the iPod after 21 years. Yields cooled -10-yr closed at 2.993%, below key 3.00% level. Trades down over 1.5% today at 2.98%. Oil & Gold both had weak & volatile sessions – USOil tested down to $98.00 before reversing to $102.20 Gold slumped from $1865 to $1830 earlier and struggles at $1845 now. No safe-haven bid. Bitcoin languishes at $31K now, over 50% down from ATH and -35% YTD FX markets – EURUSD up from 1.0500 to 1.0545, USDJPY holds over 130.00, at 130.25 and Cable continues to struggle at 1.2335. AUD outperformed in Asia. Overnight – CHINA CPI & PPI hotter than expected, (2.1% vs 1.5% & 8.0% vs 7.8%) respectively. JPY leading Indicators better than expected & German M/M CPI in-line at 0.8%. ECB’s Müller: Appropriate to raise rates into positive territory by year-end. Fed’s Waller & Mester more hawkish. (Mester talked of going beyond neutral) Today – US CPI, Speeches from Fed’s Bostic, ECB’s Lagarde, Schnabel, Elderson, de Cos, Centeno, Vasle & Muller. Earnings from Ubisoft, Siemens Energy, Poste Italiane, E.ON, Continental, ITV, Compass & Beyond Meat. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+0.42%) Rallied from lows at 0.6910 yesterday to 0.6970 now, next resistance 0.6980 and 0.7000 today. MAs aligning higher, MACD signal line & histogram moving higher & testing 0 line, RSI 56 & rising, H1 ATR 0.0016, Daily ATR 0.011. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  4. Date : 10th May 2022. Market Update – May 10 – Stocks Stabilize After Huge Risk-Off Monday. USD cools from recent highs, Stocks stall their decline after Monday rout (NASDAQ -4.29%), Yields hold at highs with 10-yr over 3.00%. Gold and Oil both slumped as risk-off rattled markets CB tightening and rising inflation fears continuing to spook sentiment. Asian markets weaker (Nikkei -1.00%) and European Futures all weaker. USDIndex tested new at highs at 104.20 yesterday back to 103.60 now. Equities – USA500 -132 (-3.20%) at 3991, first close below 4k since March 2021. US500FUTS at 4022 now. Yields moved higher, 10-yr closed at 3.079%, holding key 3.00% level. Trades at 3.054% now Oil & Gold both had weak & volatile session – USOil tested down to $100.00 before reversing to $102.20 now from opening trades over $109.00. Gold slumped from $1885 zone to $1850 yesterday and struggles at $1860 now. Bitcoin crashed through $30K struggling with $32K now. FX markets – EURUSD up from 1.0500 to 1.0560, USDJPY holds over 130.00, at 130.40 and Cable continues to struggle – 1.2260 lows were tested yesterday, back to 1.2325. Overnight Fed’s Kashkari : Reiterates confidence that inflation will return to Fed’s 2.0% target & Fed’s Bostic: 50 bps hike was an aggressive move, Fed can stay at that pace, 75 bps rate hike is low probability. Today – German ZEW, Speeches from Fed’s Williams, Waller, Bostic, Barkin, Kashkari, Mester, ECB’s de Guindos & BoE’s Saunders, Earnings from Bayer, Porsche, Norwegian Cruise Line & Warner Music. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.35%) Rallied from lows at 89.70 to over 91.20 highs (resistance) today. MAs aligning higher, MACD signal line & histogram moving higher but remain weak, RSI 44, but rising, H1 ATR 0.33, Daily ATR 1.60. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  5. Date : 9th May 2022. Market Update – May 9 – USD dominance rips through every market on FED. Monday Markets Blues Can the cause sometimes take place after the effect? This is what looks to be the case this week. The USD surged to 2001 and has been bought and fixed income sold on ideas that the Fed had taken a hawkish turn, with investors searching for safety. The hikes will be front-loaded with the next 50 bp hikes discounted for the next two meetings (June and July) and a strong leaning for the same in September (~66%). Yields 10-year is up 1.0 bp at 3.14%. Stock markets are broadly lower, with Japanese markets underperforming and the Nikkei down -2.5%. Tighter Covid lockdowns in Beijing and Shanghai raised pressure on its economy, while China reported faster-than-expected growth in exports for April, while imports were flat. Meanwhile in the market, speculation that President Putin might declare war on Ukraine in order to call up reserves during his speech at “Victory Day” celebrations could further hurt market sentiment. The week ahead is important because it may show the first signs that peak inflation is at hand. USDIndex above 104.10. Equities – Nikkei down -2.5%. The ASX closed with a loss of -1.2%, the CSI is currently down -1.4%, while Hong Kong was closed today. USA500 led the way with a drop of 1.1%, while USA100 shed 1.0%. Yields 10-year is up 1.0 bp at 3.14%, Australia’s long yield also continued to climb and the German 10-year rate is up 0.4 bp at 1.13% this morning. Oil back to 109, after EU and G7 mull Russian oil imports while Saudi Arabia cut prices for buyers in Asia as China’s lockdowns weigh on demand in the region. Gold drifted back to 1869 as it looks less attractive from the safety of USD, while elevated yields further weighed on prices. Bitcoin hammered! Gapped down to33,228. The start of a sharp technical fall ? FX markets – EURUSD is just over the 1.05 mark, AUD and NZD also struggled against the largely stronger USD. USDJPY climbed above the 131 mark and Cable is at a near 2-year low at currently 1.2259. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USOIL (-2.17%) drifted to S1 at 108.15 in the EU open. MAs & Stochastics bearishly crossed, and RSI is at 41 sloping lower. H1 ATR 0.91, Daily ATR 4.43. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  6. Date : 6th May 2022. Market Update – May 6 – Massive U-turn ahead of NFP. The markets did a big U-turn after Wednesday’s post-FOMC rally, and the pop in rates hammered Wall Street. Along with positioning, the recent massive swings in the markets and mostly bearish tones have been fostered by escalating fears over inflation, an overly aggressive tightening path from the Fed, and increasing angst over slowing growth, in other words, “stagflation.” That potential was imbedded in the Q1 productivity report that revealed near record contraction in productivity as well as unit labour costs, leaving a hollow ring to Chair Powell’s beliefs that the Fed can tame inflation and that the economy can achieve a “softish” landing with a “significant chance” of avoiding a “significant slowdown, or a big jump in unemployment.” RBA flags further tightening ahead. The RBA said in its quarterly monetary policy report that it will need to raise interest rates further, against the background of tightening labour markets that risk triggering a wage price spiral. USDIndex at a 5th winning week – breached 103.95. Currently at 103.84 ahead of US jobs report that is likely to back the case for aggressive monetary policy tightening. Equities – was crushed by the revived hawkish outlook and the pop in yields. The USA100 dove over -5% but finished with a -4.99% decline. The USA500 tumbled -3.56%, with the USA30 -3.12% lower. Yields 10-year up 17 bps to 3.105%, with the 2-year up 10 bps to 2.738%. Oil climbed to 111.36 high, after the Biden administration outlined a plan to refill oil reserves (SPR). But it has dropped right back down to 109.34. Reportedly, the Department of Energy will put out a tender for 60 mln barrels in the fall, according to an unnamed source. But the purchases will be at some time in the future, which saw the price fall back. Having the government an assured buyer should provide some support. Meanwhile, the looming EU ban on Russian oil imports and the less hawkish than feared FOMC result have helped calm fears. There were no surprises from OPEC which stuck to its plan for a modest hike in output. Gold drifted back to 1866 as the USD and Treasury yields rallied. Bitcoin tumbled 8% overnight, hitting at 35,278. FX markets – EURUSD at 1.0508, USDJPY holds above the 130.50, Cable down to 1.2333. AUD turns below 0.7100. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPCHF (-0.73%) declined in the EU open at 1.2157, with next support to 1.2114. MAs & Stochastics bearishly crossed, and RSI is at 36 sloping lower. H1 ATR 0.00169, Daily ATR 0.01081. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HF Markets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  7. HotForex is Evolving into HFM! Dear client, After 12 years of rapid growth and becoming a truly global broker of choice with over 3.5 million live accounts opened, on May 2, 2022 we are entering a new era with a new name, HFM, that more accurately reflects our wide range of trading instruments and the unique trading experience we offer. HF Markets Group CEO George Koumantaris said: “We decided that it was time to embrace the future with a shorter, more memorable and more modernized name and for our brand to evolve alongside our ever-expanding product offerings. We provide over 1,200 products in 9 asset classes and having “forex” in our name was no longer a proper reflection of the award winning trading experience we offer." Additionally we are proud to announce that very soon we will be releasing a brand new trading app that will allow our traders to trade on the go, as well as Physical stocks. For more information and our extended FAQ We are starting the new era with you! Kind Regards, The HotForex (soon HFM) Team
  8. Date : 2nd May 2022. Market Update – May 2 – USD hold gains, China data dives, Stocks tank. USD continues to hold onto recent gains, Stocks crashed (NASDAQ -4.17% Friday to close a miserable April and register its biggest daily loss since September and a weekly loss of -3.9%), Asian markets weaker (many closed due to Eid holidays) and European FUTS down over 1.5%. (UK closed today). Yields jumped higher and VIX soared over 7% to 31.30. Oil & Gold both rallied and then gave up all their gains. Weekend data – Chinese Manu & Services PMI’s (47.4 vs 49.5 & 41.9 vs. 48.4) the worst in 2 yrs as lockdowns grip the economy. Berkshire Hathaway invested over $51bn in Q1 inc. Chevron (over $21bn), Occidental ($10bn), HP ($4.2bn) & Alleghany ($11.6bn). US House speaker, Pelosi visited Ukraine promising support ‘until fight is done’. USDIndex cooled to under 103.00 on Friday, closed at 103.18, and is back to 103.45, now. April opened at 98.29, a near 5% gain. Equities – USA500 -155.57 (-3.63%) at 4131. – US500FUTS at 4145 now. AMZN -14.05%, INTEL -6.94% MSFT & NFLX -4%, APPL -3.66%. Nasdaq lost -13% in April (worst since 2008 Fin. Crisis) S&P500 has lost -13% in 2022 (the worst Jan-April since 1939). 50% of S&P500 companies have reported this Earnings season and 81% have exceeded expectations (average 66%). But outlooks (partic. from AZMN & APPL) have weighed. Volatility is back too, Jan-April there were 33 days with +/- 2% daily moves, in all of 2021 there were just 24. Yields moved significantly higher 10-yr closed at 2.887%. Up 1.96% today, at 2.942 Oil & Gold both had a volatile session moved higher and then reversed to trade lower today. USOil tested to $108.00 on Friday but trades at $103.85 now. Gold tested $1920 zone Friday and trades at $1885 now, below key $1900 handle. Bitcoin declined from $40k on Friday to sub $38k to test $39k now. FX markets – EURUSD down to 1.0525, USDJPY up from 129.40 to 133.30 now and Cable recovered to 1.2550 now from 1.2410 lows on Friday. Overnight – JPY – Consumer Confidence missed 33 vs 34.9 and Final Manu PMI in line at 53.5. Week Ahead – The focus remains on inflation and the much anticipated response from the FOMC, RBA and BOE this week, while the markets price in action from the ECB down the road. The advent of month-end, a holiday in Japan on Friday, and the UK shut today accelerated some profit taking on Wall Street after the early rally. It looks as though many are sidelined into the weekend and ahead of the FOMC where there is a lot of uncertainty over the aggressiveness of the Fed’s normalization path, and the BOE’s ambiguity. Hiking rates too much too quickly would only increase the risk of a stagflation scenario and the BOE’s current policy is already much closer to neutral than the ECB’s. The week also sees NFP, and employment data from Canada, Europe and New Zealand. Today – German Retail Sales, US ISM Manufacturing, EU Energy Ministers meeting, (Hungary would veto sanctions on Russian energy) Earnings from Italgas, Holidays in UK, China and many Asian countries. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USDJPY (+0.49%) Rallied from lows under 1129.40 Friday to 130.45 highs today. Next resistance 130.50 MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram moving higher, RSI 54 & rising, H1 ATR 0.263, Daily ATR 1.38. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  9. Date : 29th April 2022. Market Update – April 29. Risk appetite surged as optimism over earnings more than overshadowed concerns over the 8% pop in the y/y GDP price gauge and the -1.4% print on Q1 GDP. The contraction in growth was seen as a one-off, however, due to trade disruptions limiting supply alongside a surge in demand following the pandemic, with inventory drawdowns contributing negatively too. Stock markets remained supported overnight, with hopes of support measures in China helping to underpin sentiment, after China vowed to underpin the health of so-called platform firms. Meanwhile, the pick-up in core PCE inflation to a 5.2% y/y pace from 5.0% y/y was also seen on the light side and hence supported notions that prices may be topping out. European Fixed Income Outlook: Bund yields are down -2.5 bp at 0.87% in early trade, with Eurozone bonds paring some of yesterday’s losses and yields coming down as the unexpected stagnation in French GDP at the start of the year highlighted that there are still reasons for the ECB to remain cautious even as inflation is going through the roof. German import price inflation jumped to 31.2% y/y in March, from 26.3% y/y in the previous month. Yields are coming down from yesterday’s highs. The 2-year yield rose over 5 bps to test 2.68% and the 10-year challenged 2.90% before drifting back to 2.63% and 2.85%, respectively. Stocks – GER40 and UK100 futures are up around 1.0%, USA100 soared 3.06% on the day, with the USA500 2.47% higher, while the USA30 climbed 1.85%, but all off of late peaks. Japan is closed for a holiday, the ASX up 1.1% at the close. Earnings – Meta shares surge after Facebook ekes out user growth; Qualcomm rises after it forecasts upbeat revenue; Apple Inc, the world’s most valuable company, and e-commerce giant Amazon.com Inc rallied more than 4% ahead of their quarterly reports later in the day. USDIndex lost some of its recent gains, currently at 103.15. Oil at $106.42. Oil prices meanwhile moved higher as overall confidence improved and fears over China’s Covid measures eased somewhat. Gold back above $1900. FX markets – EUR and Sterling also found some buyers, but while EURUSD and Cable are up from yesterday’s lows, they are still looking pretty weak at currently 1.0548 and 1.2530 respectively. USDJPY still held above the 130. Today – German and Eurozone GDP are still to come and Eurozone inflation data are also due, while in the US session eyes are on PCE and Canadian GDP. Exxon and Chevron earnings on tap. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) XAGEUR (+1.27%) breached 22.20. MAs pointing higher, MACD signal line & histogram turned positive, RSI at 62, all signalling further boost in the near term. H1 ATR 0.077, Daily ATR 0.509. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  10. Date : 28th April 2022. Market Update – April 28 – USD Dominates with FX Markets in Focus. USDJPY rockets higher with 130.00 in the cross-hairs as BOJ leaves main policy steady, to hold 10yr JGB ceiling at 0.25%, while JPY was clobbered across the board again. AUDJPY back to 92.00, GBPJPY 162.00, EURJPY 136.40. The markets continued to mull the implications of the stand off between the EU and Russia over payment modalities for Russian gas deliveries. The front on a gradual ban of Russian oil imports has hardened, as Russia upped the ante, but while the EU urged a united front on Russian demands for ruble payments, the European Commission last week seemed open to companies finding ways to tally Moscow’s demands with the EU’s sanctions against Putin and that is what many companies are doing now. In the end it seems unlikely that gas supplies to the EU will stop immediately, although governments will work even harder to become independent of Russian deliveries as soon as possible. The 10-year Treasury yield is down –1.1 bp to 2.82%, while JGBs were supported after the BOJ. Stocks – ASX lifted 1.2%, and the Hang Seng 0.5%, but the CSI 300 is currently down -0.4%, with Covid developments still in focus. US futures are also higher, with a 1.3% rise in the USA100 leading the way. Earnings – Strong earnings from Microsoft and Visa. Facebook owner Meta beat Wall Street forecasts and said it had eked out user growth, sending its shares up almost 20% after hours. Microsoft MSFT.O shares rallied as well. Google-parent Alphabet Inc GOOGL.O fell 3.6% as slowing YouTube ad sales pushed quarterly revenue below expectations. Boeing Co BA.N dropped 7.5% after it disclosed $1.5 billion in abnormal costs from halting 777X production. USDIndex the main leader, at 103.70 highs. Oil is currently trading at $101.08, with yesterday’s gains already erased. China’s capital Beijing closed some public spaces and stepped up checks at others on Thursday, as most of the city’s 22 million residents embarked on more COVID-19 mass testing aimed at averting a Shanghai-like lockdown. Gold drifts to $1885. FX markets – Developments are hurting the EUR, which has dropped below 1.0500, while EURGBP fell towards the 0.8394 mark. GBPUSD is also under pressure amid general Dollar strength. AUD and NZD were on the ropes as worries about a recession in Europe and a slowdown in China engulfed risky assets and overwhelmed the promise of rising interest rates at home. Today – Inflation reports for Germany and Spain are due today, as well as confidence data for Italy. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) CADJPY (+1.68%) breached 101.90. MAs pointing higher, MACD signal line & histogram moving higher, RSI at 82, all signalling further boost in the near term. H1 ATR 0.277, Daily ATR 1.15. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  11. Date : 27th April 2022. Market Update – April 27 – Aggressive central bank moves hanging over markets. Trading Leveraged Products is risky Concern over aggressive tightening moves has resurfaced and Australia’s 10-year yield declined, as the short end of the curve was pressured by a jump in headline inflation which lifted to 5.1% y/y in Q1 – the highest level since the introduction of the Goods and Services Tax in the early 2000s. Stocks not surprisingly struggled, although mainland China bourses finally bounced back. Gold was back in demand temporarily and Oil prices backed up, with USOIL at $102.46 now. The Yen sold off, while the USDIndex is moving further above the 102 level. Russia halts gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria. The 10-year Treasury yield is up 4.4 bp, with the curve flattening as the short end underperformed. Stocks – Nikkei and ASX meanwhile corrected -1.2% and -0.8% respectively with tech stocks under pressure after the weaker close on Wall Street yesterday. USA100 cratered -3.95%. The USA500 dropped -2.81% and the USA30 sunk -2.38%. GER40 and UK100 are slightly higher at the moment, but underperforming versus US futures. Earnings have been mixed but the advent of the key reports ahead left a very cautious environment. While a lot of reports have been better than expected, Q2 outlooks have been cut while guidance has been uncertain. Alphabet was down about 3%, GE disappointed and was the poster child for the headwinds, revealing supply chains problems, rising costs, and shortages of materials and labour. USDIndex remains on bid, at 102.52 highs. Oil spiked to 102.96, as Russia, which has been demanding payments for its gas in roubles as sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine bite, said it will halt supplies to Poland and Bulgaria from Wednesday. Gold back below $1900. FX markets – USDJPY over the 128 mark again, EURUSD extends to 1.0615, GBPUSD steady to the downside at 1.2558, USDCAD to 1.2828 highs. Today – ECB’s President Lagarde speech, BoC’s Rogers speech, BoC’s Governor Macklem speech. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+1.29%) Breached 92. MAs flattened, MACD signal line & histogram moving higher close to neutral zone, RSI at 45, all signalling a pullback. H1 ATR 0.305, Daily ATR 1.195. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  12. Date : 26th April 2022. Market Update – April 26 – Fragile Sentiment. Sentiment stabilised, after a mostly gloomy session for stocks yesterday. Wall Street got a late boost. Across the Asia Pacific region, the ASX underperformed in catch up trade, after returning from yesterday’s holiday, though global growth fears stoked by China’s strict COVID-19 curbs and an expected streak of aggressive Federal Reserve tightening sapped risk appetite. Wall Street surged and closed with gains, as Twitter jumped sharply on news Elon Musk finalized his purchase for some $44 bln. The late pop on Wall Street pulled rates up. Treasury yields are up from early double-digit lows. Switzerland’s trade surplus narrowed to just CHF 1.8 bln in March, from CHF 5.5 bln in February. The UK government reported a GBP13.1 bln deficit in March this year, less than markets had expected, but still the second-highest number for March. Yields closed in the green but well off of double-digit lows early in the day when the market caught a flight to safety bid. The 5-year finished 2 bps lower at 2.845%, with the wi 2-year down 2 bps to 2.650%, and the 10-year off 1.3 bps to 2.806%. Bund yields are backing up and the German 10-year rate has lifted 2.9 bp to 0.86%. Stocks – The USA100 has climbed over 1.29%, while expectations for solid gains from Microsoft on Tuesday added to the rally. The USA30 and USA500 closed with gains of 0.70% and 0.57% as well after trading in the red much of the day as growth concerns weighed heavily, with a steep slide in energy. Nikkei lifted 0.4%. USDIndex remains on bid, at 101.85 highs. Oil prices dropped by 4% at $95.05 but added 0.89% to $99.42 a barrel currently. Worries over China’s fuel demand were soothed by the central bank’s pledge to support an economy hit by renewed COVID-19 curbs. Gold dipped to $1890 more than 2-month support. FX markets – USDJPY dropped back to 1.2787, although AUD and NZD and to a lesser extent the CAD outperformed, after being pressured yesterday. EUR and Sterling remain at low levels against the USD, with Cable at 1.2740 and EURUSD at 1.0710. Today – This week’s calendar is loaded with key data, events, and earnings that will give hawks and doves plenty of ammunition and keep the markets in flux. Today focus turns to US Durable goods and Consumer Confidence. Biggest FX Mover @(07:30 GMT) USDZAR (+0.94%) Breached 15.82. MAs still aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram moving higher but very close to neutral zone, RSI 67 and rising, H1 ATR 0.05376, Daily ATR 0.2097. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  13. Date : 21st April 2022. Market Update – April 21 – Yields & USD Cool, NFLX & TSLA grab the headlines. Trading Leveraged Products is risky USD continued to unwind, Yields dipped on profit taking and moved lower, Stocks very mixed; worst was NASDAQ -1.22%, NFLX -35%, FB -7.7%, IBM +7.10% and TSLA –4.96% (but recovered all of that after hours). Asian Markets also mixed (Nikkei +1.24%, Shanghai -1.77%). Oil & Gold tested key support areas before recovering. Fed officials Daly & Evans talk 50 bp hike necessary in May. The West is preparing a new military aid package for Ukraine. Ukraine calls for talks on Mariupol withdrawal, Russia tests new ICBM in show of strength says Mariupol will fall on Thursday. Macron & Le-Pen TV face to face – no clear winner but Macron came out better. World faces hunger ‘catastrophe’ as food prices could rise by up to 37% from invasion. Xi, Modi & Serbia restate opposition to Russian sanctions. Johnson in India, calls dealing with Putin like dealing with a “crocodile”. USDIndex spikes lower to 100.20 from a test of 101.00 yesterday as USD & Yields cool. Equities – USA500 -2.76 (-0.06%) at 4459. – Holds 4400. US500FUTS tick higher at 4470. NFLX wipe out (down –67.7% from Nov. highs as Pandemic stay at home winners suffer.) Ackman’s Pershing Square fund sold entire stake losing $430m from January $1.1 bln investment. TSLA significantly beat EPS & Revenue, profit up $3.3bln, deliveries up 68% at 310K, & supply chains not an apparent problem. MUSK pockets $23bln on results. Yields moved significantly lower following 10-yr closed at 2.84% from the attempt at 3% earlier in the week. Trades at 2.87% now Oil & Gold both had a volatile session pressured lower. USOil tested under $100.00 and trades at $103.40 now, having tumbled from $109.40 this week. Gold fell to test $1940 zone and trades at $1950 now, having rejected $2000 this week. Bitcoin continued to recover from sub 38.5k on Monday to over 41.6k now. FX markets – EURUSD has recovered 1.0850 and now tests 1.0900 zone. USDJPY cooled from decade highs to trade at 128.00 and Cable recovered from 1.3000 lows to 1.3075 now. Overnight – NZD – surprise miss for CPI (1.8% vs 2.0% & 1.4%) PBOC reduced Yuan to November lows after holding off Intertest rate changes. Today – EZ CPI (Final), US Weekly Claims & Philadelphia Fed, EZ Consumer Confidence (Flash), Speeches from Fed’s Powell, ECB’s Lagarde, BoE’s Bailey & Mann. Earnings from Meggitt, Nestle (in-line), American Airlines, AT&T and Phillip Morris. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURNZD (+0.67%) Rallied from lows under 1.5930 yesterday to 1.6055 highs today. Next resistance 1.6100. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram moving higher, RSI 64 & rising, H1 ATR 0.0031, Daily ATR 0.01571. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  14. Date : 20th April 2022. Market Update – April 20 – USD slips, Stocks rally, Yields hold, Gold & Oil dive. USD slipped from highs, Yields held onto gains, Stocks rallied and Gold & Oil dived. USDJPY hit a new 20-yr high at 129.40 before a sharp reverse. Kashkari (Dove) re: Inflation, Fed will “have to do more” The IMF & World Bank significantly cut global economic growth. Stocks rallied (NASDAQ +2.15%), Netflix lost 200k subscribers in Q1, (first subscriber loss in 10 years) shares dived -18% after hours having gained +3.18% at the close. Asian Markets broadly higher (Nikkei +0.86%), Chinese markets lower. USDIndex spiked over 101.00 & trades at 100.75 as USD cools & Yields hold up. Equities – USA500 +70 (+1.61%) at 4462. – Recovering 4400. US500FUTS lower at 4438. NFLX will be marked lower on open after subscriber decline and weak outlook. AAL & UAL gained +5.66% & +4.5% respectively. Yields moved significantly higher, 10-yr moved within a smidge of 3.00% earlier from a close at 2.913% Oil & Gold both tumbled from Monday highs. USOil tanked from $109.75 to under $102 and trades at $102.80 now. Gold fell from $2 short of $2000 to $1940 now. Bitcoin recovered from 39.5k on Monday to over 41.3k now. FX markets – EURUSD has recovered 1.0800 from 1.0760 lows yesterday. USDJPY cooled from decade highs to trade at 128.65 and Cable recovered from 1.2980 lows to 1.3025 now. Overnight – Japan – big miss for Trade balance (-0.90T vs -.058T) (Imports higher due to Energy costs, Exports down due to China lockdowns), Industrial Activity missed significantly (-1.35 vs +0.3%). PBOC did not move rates again, German PPI hotter again (+4.9% vs 1.4% last month). Today – EZ Industrial Production, Canadian CPI, US Existing Home Sales, French Election TV Debate, Speeches from Fed’s Daly & Evans. Earnings ASML (beat) Carrefour, Danone (beat), Heineken, P&G and United Airlines. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+0.55%) Rallied from lows under 0.7340 yesterday to 0.7430 highs today. Next resistance 0.7450. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram moving higher, RSI 65 & rising, Stochs in OB zone. H1 ATR 0.0015, Daily ATR 0.0071. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  15. Date : 19th April 2022. Market Update – April 19 – Markets are back. Markets are back today. European as well as US stock futures are moving higher, after a mixed close across the Asia-Pacific region overnight. Heightened geopolitical risks weighed on confidence and mainland China bourses failed to get a real boost from the PBoC’s pledge to support the economy. The Ukraine war and central bank moves will remain in focus, amid further signs of weakening growth and rising inflation in particular in Europe. Hawkish IMF and World Bank meetings are a highlight this week and the World Bank already slashed its growth forecast. RBA: closer to raising interest rates for the first time in more than a decade due to accelerating inflation. The World Bank lowered its forecast for 2022 growth. The markets also monitored a Goldman Sachs estimate of a 35% risk for a recession over the next two years. – 15-month crisis response package of around $170 bln. Yields – The 10-year Treasury yield is down -0.6 bp at 2.85%, while the German 10-year has lifted 2.1 bp to 0.86%, after the extended break. Stocks waffled between gains and losses through the session, but finally settled slightly lower with losses of -0.1% on the Dow and NASDAQ, and a -0.02% dip in the USA500. Nikkei closed 0.7% higher. China bourses underperformed and the Hang Seng plunged -2.5% after returning from the extended weekend. USDIndex remains on bid, at 100.99 highs. Oil edged up to $109.81, from an overnight low of $106 amid the continued supply-demand tug of war. Supply was more of a focal point as two Libyan ports were shut amid anti government protests and the National Oil Corporation declared a force majeure on loadings. Currently steady above $107.00. Bitcoin spiked to $41,223. FX markets – EURUSD choppy around 1.0780, Cable tumbled below 1.3000, AUDUSD +0.3% supported by RBA minutes at 0.7385. Today – There is little on this week’s calendar data-wise and today’s slate has just the Housing Starts and Building permits from US. There is Fedspeak from Evans and SNB’s Chairman Jordan. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) CADJPY (+1.40%) Breached 102.00. MAs still aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram moving higher, RSI 91 but flattening, H1 ATR 0.197, Daily ATR 0.892. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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