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Market Internals
Discussion forum on market internals, pit noise/action, and price action to determine the overall strength/weakness of the markets.
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By HFblogNews · Posted
Date : 17th January 2020. Positive bias on the back of US & Chinese Data 17th January 2020.Positive bias on the back of US & Chinese Data – Sentiment was supported by robust US retail sales on Thursday, ongoing good will following the Phase One trade deal and good earnings data, despite the slowdown of Chinese GDP growth to the lowest in 29 years.Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. -
By YertleTurtle · Posted
I use Wyckoff for trading gold and forex. You are not wasting your time although this forum is dead. -
By HFblogNews · Posted
Date : 16th January 2020. Narrow US trade gap in Q4 – Its meaning and what to expect in 2020? 16th January 2020.A drop in the bilateral trade deficit between the US and China in Q4 sharply understates the underlying improvement, thanks to a powerful seasonal pattern in goods trade between the two countries that bloated the Q4 deficit. A plunge is anticipated in the gap to a February trough that should mark the narrowest deficit since 2013.Though the overall US trade gap will widen in 2020 if the economy grows, phase-one agreement will be followed by news over the coming three months of a collapsing US-China trade deficit.The US-China trade deficit for goods narrowed sharply last winter to just $20.7 bln in March of 2019 from a peak of $43.1 bln in October of 2018, with a gyration that was exacerbated by tariff front running.The seasonal widening into Q4 of 2019 failed to occur, while a seasonal narrowing is expected into the Lunar New Year that should prompt a February goods deficit in the $20 bln area — less than half of the peak just 16 months earlier.The seasonal pattern is mostly driven by the US import data from China. The unusually large gyration in 2018 was due to tariff front running, which pulled imports ahead into Q4 from Q1. Goods imports appeared to resume their seasonal climb until they reached a $41.5 bln level in July of 2019, leaving an -11.9% shortfall from July of 2018. From their, the seasonal climb oddly ended, and imports fell to just $36.5 bln in November to leave a y/y drop of an enormous -21.6%.If the seasonal drop now unfolds, imports from China should fall to the $28 bln area by February. The drop will be exacerbated this year by a relatively early Lunar New Year date of January 25.The seasonal pattern for imports has been quite stable over the years, until the big deviation in the pattern in 2019, which suggests that the atypical seasonal behavior this year is due to the “trade war.”The seasonal pattern is less stable, and less pronounced, for US goods exports to China, and the pattern of US exports has been fairly erratic over the last year. The dominant pattern over the past two years has been a drop in US exports to China between the start of the “trade war” in early 2018 to a trough in January of 2019, before largely stabilizing since then.The fact that Chinese policymakers cut all unnecessary trade with the US over this period, leaves little room for further cuts through 2019 and into 2020.Beyond the “trade war,” there have been two other major patterns in the US trade data that will likely have the effect of narrowing the US-China bilateral trade deficit over the coming year. One is the depressing effect on US exports from the 737 MAX grounding since March of 2019, leaving a likely dramatic rebound over the year following the lifting of the FAA ban presumably later this year. The other major pattern is the steep climb in US exports of petroleum products, as the Permian Basin is rapidly transforming into a major export center thanks to ongoing innovations in pressurized and lateral drilling.The seasonal patterns are expected to allow a deficit to return for the last time between December and April, before the US becomes a “permanent” net petroleum exporter. China is dependent on petroleum imports, and hence it is anticipated that US exporters capture more of this market over the coming years, especially given that the phase-one deal involves a shift in Chinese purchases toward US commodities.The combination of a narrowing US-China trade deficit, strength in US exports of petroleum-related products, and an assumed Boeing-led surge in capital goods exports at some point this year, may all suggest a narrowing US trade gap.Hence to be sure, as the trade gap declined to the lowest during Donald Trump presidency, will add to GDP if not in the long term definitely in the near term, possible during February-March with help from the Chinese New Year and Phase-1 deal.Overall however, a US GDP growth out-performance versus other countries in 2020 is anticipated, and a firm Dollar with strong capital account inflows, that should fuel a widening trade deficit through the year despite the narrowing bilateral gap with China.Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. -
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By mitsubishi · Posted
You cant argue with statistics (statistically speaking.. though) Find out what are your chances to make money with forex and stock trading and which is the “riskiest” and which is the “safest” broker out there. For the first time in the history of trading, you get to know the real statistics of how many investors actually make money by trading CFD’s like forex, stocks etc. One of the most popular questions bothering new forex traders has been “What percentage of forex traders make money?”, “How risky is forex trading?”. There was some speculation, but nobody had significant hard facts. Until now… Most traders have heard the popular estimate that 96% to 99% of traders lose money. This figure has been circling around for many years, but it was more like a folk legend than a hard fact. There was some data from a couple of brokers, but it was not possible to get the results from all the market participants. But now the secret can be revealed thanks to the new regulations. With the new European regulations that came into effect from August 1, 2018, brokers are required to display clearly on their marketing message what is the percentage of their clients that lose money. For example: “75% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider.” So we decided to gather the statistics from all of the established brokers to get a proper answer on what percentage of forex traders make money. It seems that we are the first ones to publish this information, so you are in the lucky place! 31 CFD brokers were surveyed overall and here are the results: It turns out that the losing account percentage varies from 65% to 89%. And the average percentage of losing accounts is 77%. 77% of accounts losing money still seems quite a lot, but it is much lower than the folk legend of 96%. So we can say that the myth has been busted! Given the fact that all business activities are risky and that more than 90% of startups fail, this number is not so bad after all. Who are the winning brokers / trading providers Now that we know the average losing percentages, let’s find out which trading providers report the lowest rates of losing investor accounts. Here are the Top5: As you can see in the image above, eToro stands out from the crowd with the lowest percentage of losing accounts. 65% losing accounts means that 35% of eToro users are profitable. That is 3 times more than the worst performing brokers and almost 9 times more than the folk legend predicted. What could be the reason behind the high profitability rate of eToro? The main difference of eToro from other trading providers is the possibility to connect with other traders, discuss trading strategies, and use their patented CopyTrader™ technology to automatically copy the trades of successful traders. Apparently, this actually works! Who are the losing brokers / trading providers Here are the Top5 brokers with the highest percentages of losing investor accounts: It might be that these brokers attract the least experienced traders and don’t offer them enough learning and training tools. Here is the full list of trading providers with the corresponding losing accounts: Now you know the true chances of winning in the forex and stock trading markets! Accept that there is no such thing as a free lunch. Winning at forex trading takes work just like anything else. Disclaimer: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Dont forget to like and subscribe
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