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Market Wizard
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About Predictor

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  1. The real con to system trading is that if one studies the market then they can develop a "feel" for the market and can integrate multiple types of information, as well as learn rules to complex too fully code. This contrast with trading systems which are defined by rigid rules and rely on very specific and selective events, patterns, and conditions to profit from. Due to the infrequency of trades and lack of higher level abstraction inherent in most trading systems, it is much more difficult (though not impossible) for traders to get a "feel" for a trading system. This division between the trader and the system can cause internal conflict in the systems trader who has developed market expertise as the internal expertise may conflict with the systems information. There are various ways to solve this conflict. One approach is to ignore the internal conflict. This prevents any development of higher level abstraction and integration from taking place. Another approach that I've used is to vary the position size based on my own confidence. A similar approach requires opening a system trade but leaves the closing to discretion. As for pros, there are many pros. The first is having a stronger basis for a trade. The ability to compare the actual results to the hypothetical results also provides a yardstick for measuring performance. And, it is possible to come up with various expectations for maximize bet sizing with systems which is hard to do with discretionary trading. Furthermore, style drift is not as much of an issue. As you note, the possibility for the system to watch several markets is a huge benefit to systems traders for those with larger accounts. Currently, we are researching graybox systems which we expect will combine better with discretionary trading. The goal with our graybox approach is different from traditional systems. The goal with our graybox approach is to give the trader the best insight, clarity,and intelligence into the market versus to come up with the most profitable backtest. The change in approach from "find most profitable backtest" to "generate best intelligence" opens up expanded potential for exploration and unique potential for synthesis. --- Curtis Home - OrderFlowDashPro
  2. Below is the link with all the information about our free NinjaTrader sponsored webinar scheduled for this Friday 9/27/2013 at 4:15 PM EST. See you there! NinjaTrader Partner Spotlight Presents OrderFlowDashPro ---- Home - OrderFlowDashPro
  3. There are at least 2 basic approaches to trading, one is what I'll call opportunity based and the other is what we call process based (explained more on my blog). Opportunity structured traders will seek out exceptional opportunity at all times and even in multiple markets. Process based traders focus on following a specific process that enables them to read the market at a high level. Both styles can work but opportunity based trading requires a higher degree of discipline and would be better for a pair of traders then individual. The best time to trade is when your most profitable, of course. Most traders do well when volatility is higher then average and direction is more predictable. I divide the market up into Pre Market, Open, Morning, Evening, After Hours/Night. I've found good opportunity in the S&P 500 emini during most of those sessions/times if one know how to trade except for evening trades. The best opportunity for me is typically off the open and into the morning hours -- as well as after hours. If you trade late evening/evening then you will probably want to plan on holding some trades over the regular session close. Typically, systems that trade trends do better with longer holding periods. So, if you know the market is going to trend then buying as early as possible and holding until the close is going to be hard to beat. It is not at all required to trade all day to trade well. Many would do better just trading a few hours per day. --- Home - OrderFlowDashPro
  4. Mitsubishi, You may notice there is a thread about how traders don't post on these forums anymore because of trolling. As far as our platform, we have traders switching from platforms that are very expensive and switching to our platform from platforms that aren't expensive at all and each says something that is encouraging to me. But our platform won't appeal to everyone, I use a lot of trading platforms in my work. What we built is very specialized because the other platforms didn't meet the specific needs I had. I don't know why you think GS traders are so great. A successful trader must be better then the entire market which is a lot bigger and smarter then GS. Of course, its impossible to better then everyone at everything which is why I was sharing a concept when I made that post regarding something known as Selective Advantage. In fact, I'd wager that any day trader who's profitable is going to be better at what he does then most traders at big hedge funds. I seen another joker trying to compare day trading with a max daily loss limit to a hedge fund performance. They aren't even comparable because most of the hedge fund profits comes from huge diversification, market neutral trading, strategies that aren't available to retailers such as complex yield curve trades, and time value of money. To be clear, if you gave the average trader who makes 30% per year trading 100k and said okay you risk $500 max per day and day trade it then he wouldn't be profitable. They aren't even comparable because the trader who makes 30% year is typically making a lot of that through diversification, holding through drawdowns, etc. I don't see why you would think that a trader who trades complex yield curves would be great at predicting very short term moves in the S&P 500. If you want to talk just dollars then Warren Buffet is probably the best trader of all time. Does that make him better then a trader who makes millions at GS trading curves or building black boxes? No, each has a selective advantage.
  5. I've thought about that, and I can see how that strategy could work but seems like a high risk strategy where you don't have much of an edge. I think trading reports is better suited to options/spreads. You could buy an OTM spread or use NADEX binaries or options. I think buying an OTM option would be better way to play reports because your able to cap your risk. If the market doesn't move much, you can just close them out for small loss or break even. Goes without saying, its impossible to read tape during the runs caused by reports. But, sometimes you can wait until the tape turns and take the opposite side. What can work is to wait for the momentum to run out... read the tape and watch for it to turn to take the other side. Even that is a rather high risk trade because any mistake can cause a big loss. Buying a retracement after a report moves strong in one direction can work very well, if offered. --- Home - OrderFlowDashPro
  6. We've recently released AlphaReveal 2! AlphaReveal 2.0.1 offers dramatically improved performance, new & innovative QuantTape, and other features. While I knew we had the best order flow platform, what's been very encouraging to me is that we've traders who've tried all the order flow tools out there and still end up choosing our platform because they see the value. We do offer a free 2 week trial for anyone who wants to try it out and we don't charge customers who cancel before their trial expires. Additionally, NinjaTrader is sponsoring a webinar that we'll be hosting on Friday, September 27th at 4:15 PM. We'll demonstrate the platform, share thoughts on how we read the tape, and share more about our upcoming Quantitative Advantage program. We're very excited about this program because we're going to stream down our best signals which will give traders a proprietary advantage. We've had top ranked third-party tracked futures systems but our goals with this program are unique. Our goal isn't just to give you signals like you could get from a trading system but to provide signals that can be combined well with discretionary trading process. Most successful trading systems are built around very specific conditions, don't trade frequently, and again don't lend themselves to discretionary input. Our goal is thus to move toward more frequent co-incident "graybox" style signals that can give traders a real advantage but still require traders own insight. Our ultimate aim is to give traders proprietary advantage and create a positive team oriented/floor trading atmosphere designed to help bring out the best in each individual trader. Here's a clip just showing some of the capabilities of our platform.. Switch to HD for better viewing experience. --- Be sure to read our blog! http://www.orderflowdashpro.com/blog.aspx
  7. I'm interested in learning more about the type of equity index futures spreads available and if anyone trades them? I've started to get some interest in these products. What spreads are available? Who primarily trades these? What's the volume like? Are these suitable for day trading? Is it possible to build something similar to a bull spread or risk limited position with these products? What about fungibility? Feel free to share information on other types of spread products too. Forex spreads... synthetics... Been interested in this a while but haven't really did much in this area..
  8. I have never used tick charts and have always been dubious of them because a tick chart can make a very short amount of time look like there was time to take action. But, I don't trade off charts at any rate.. Still the common/most obvious charts have always looked best to me.. maybe because so many traders are watching those
  9. I'd keep in mind a possibility the 80 level could get taken out. I think that's very possible but probably not much lower.
  10. I've been busily adding new educational content over at our blog. I'm sharing a lot of the best insights into tape reading and order flow that I've learned over the years, and hopefully our blog will become an invaluable resource for traders interested in learning about the realities of tape reading. I haven't personally seen this level of detailed information shared on this topic. Right now its still a bit technical but we plan to back it up with "show me" examples in the future. You can see those posts at our blog: Blog - OrderFlowDashPro Thanks again! -Curtis Home - OrderFlowDashPro
  11. Just as an aside, I think the ES moves quite nicely. I think the key is to understand your market and how it moves. I don't trade CL but obviously those trading it will try to catch a larger run.. With the ES there is plenty to be made in little chops and also runs. I've never had a need to trade another market and I know many traders who trade equity indexes and won't go near something like CL. One of the nice things about the ES historically is that the market will chop around long enough for a trader to recognize they're wrong and get out without taking a stop loss. The market tends to be moving faster these days and trading more like actually the CL which is a downside for me. One thing to be aware of is that if one wants to use a tight stop then they'll do better trading a market that makes larger moves. The reason for this is that such methods need big winners to overcome lower win percentage. These traders lose a lot of money in "chop" zones as they constantly get stopped out for losses when they wouldn't have needed too if they used a larger stop. Likewise traders who look to trade chops/reversals can take large losses when volatility increases. Because a larger stop is basically a bet on a lower volatility environment.
  12. I've always focused on the futures to the exclusion of other markets. There is a lot going for them as discussed here. There are some downsides to futures though. The first is the large contract size which is too large for many traders. This large contract size also suffers from not being very "granular", ie if you wanted you can't just go long equivalent to 100k notional but have to choose 75k or 150K for ES. Some futures like CL are due to the size swing too risky for smaller traders. The large tick size makes tape reading more valuable but it also means it costs more to cross the spread. I wouldn't want to see that changed. Stop losses can be used to manage risk but have the effect of introducing an element of unpredictability. Unless one trades futures spreads (which most retail traders aren't aware of), its also hard to formulate relative value statements. For example, if one wanted to express sentiment that A outperforms B. There are exchange listed index spreads but they aren't discussed. Another problem with futures traders is they tend to be directional only traders. This again isn't required but unless one has multiple accounts then one can't be long/short same instrument (though the upcoming NinjaTrader webinar plans to speak to that). Alternatives: NADEX spreads -- One could use our tape reading program but trade the risk limited spreads. I'm watching the spreads with AlphaReveal in real-time today and they seem pretty tight. Another option would be to scalp in the futures and then hedge off using NADEX. I think this could work quite well for some of my "bigger" trades. Forex -- Again, the benefit smaller contract size. An option would be to read the tape off the 6E. I haven't tried this but its something I'd like to try. Weekly futures options & options -- bull/bear spreads could set up multi week trades without stop out risk Stocks: Ability to pair off anything with anything.
  13. Thanks for your positive feedback. We appreciate honest feedback from real customers. I've also added more articles over at our blog for those interested in learning about these concepts. My goal going forward is to continue to provide the highest quality instruction on these topics. Most of the new articles right now are only text. My goal is to add some illustrations, videos, and more blog posts going forward. Thanks again! Curtis -- Home - OrderFlowDashPro
  14. We could see 98.50 challenged today... will keep open mind
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