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    Day Trader

    Mostly Daytrade ES & NQ (Options on Futures)
    Swing Trade with Stock Option, Regional, Sector Options on ETFs and sometime use Country or Commodity Leveraged ETFs

    Use Market Internals (MI) on Indices and trade in direction of MI Conformance
    Fibonacci based Technical Analysis with Gaps & Confluence of Defined Natural Areas

    One can only make monies trading ones own defined system. Most traders select the system which they make more profit in, instead of working towards the system which they can trade more consistently with. Here Consistency is the only goal and the Market pays you to be Consistent.

    The challenge is to understand the market phenomena of Chenge, Continuation, Correction & Consolidation which occurs in no particular order.

    Trading is the most challenging psychological game where processes and routine are the most useful tools to play it consistently and successfully

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    Futures & Options
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  1. “You make most of your money in a bear market, you just don’t realize it at the time.” – Shelby Cullom Davis Bear market defined as 20% or more decline With the sharp downward price action on the S&P 500 on March 9, we are at the door step of a bear market Fear The Bear https://www.bmogam.com/us-en/advisors/news-and-insights/fear-the-bear/ By BMO Global Asset Management
  2. A History Of Consecutive -3% Days (Decline) https://seekingalpha.com/article/4327321-history-of-consecutiveminus-3-days by Ploutos CFA Summary The global spread of the coronavirus has pushed the S&P 500 down 3% on consecutive days. That is a fairly rare occurrence for markets with only 15 occurrences of consecutive down days of that magnitude since the Great Depression. When these types of consecutive down days occur outside of economic recessions, markets have tended to recover and move sharply higher over the next year. With the epidemic slipping towards a pandemic, the extent of economic damage remains unknown. Markets are selling rich valuations and pricing in negative outcomes. +------------------------------------------------------------------------------+ The Difference this time is, the decline has occured after consecutively achieving market highs With the last Bear Market in 2008 The sharp pullback which the News is crediting it to the Virus How do a Technician Interpret on the Chart without the news factor ? I would earmarked it as an first important indication (in built fear) occuring in the US President Election Year It would be better to review Gold & USD Chart for Safety and Fear What remains to be observed approaching US Presidential Election is; If the Gold Price Continue to Hold & remain Higher and Will USD perform Strong With Historical Low Interest Rates Gold is Good Asset to offset Risk. Interesting thing to observe will be Cryptos and related Stocks & Technology I think some exposure to Crypto is Quintessential (Around the Sell in May and Go Away Season of Correction) Awaiting some opportunity ........... ......... ....... ...... Play if Safe with Stop Loss but also some Protection in Place or Fear will provoke your primitive Mind and Take over. Enjoy Minoo
  3. We all welcome the Santa Claus Rally with new Historical Highs I think it had an distinct Chinese theme to it rather than based on future Growth or Economy Will we have one more quarter of Good Earnings and than followed with fed & political meandering (Perhaps I am getting old and do not have any more appetite for Risk On trades, ES around 3200) Is it time to be cautious about US Indices, Going into the next year (I am thinking of Hedging or Cashing Portfolio which is currency based / dependent) Looking for BitCoin to Bottom (Risk On) and Gold to Out Perform (Investment Physical and LEAPS) VIX will become more of my instrument to swing trade as market tops out Initially this should provide time and hedge to the portfolio and pension, and opportunity to average into BTC and GC Seasonals Greetings to you All Enjoy Minoo
  4. Chart Update 42 Minute for the Fib Pivots ES, VIX, USD & Crude Enjoy Minoo
  5. Watch the Weekly VIX Are we at an Area which could make another Interim Pivot ??? Is the Syndrome of Sell in May & Go Away... . .. , to arrive Early this Year Or Pending the Trade Deal with China ?? With Brexit the British had to repeatedly walk away from their own bargained Deal Would the US Administration do the same or Up coming Election will make them Savvy Just Being Cautious and Locking in some Profit (ES 2869 ish) as the Market Gives but will also start Average into VIX Play it Safe, Minoo
  6. I think we may have Volatility this month to overcome or succumb to the Weekly 78.6% Fib Retracement VIX may rise so getting more into the day trading mode, (if VIX open interest starts to rise) Watch chaikin money flow into VIX
  7. A record high for Facebook Inc. stock has reportedly pushed Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg’s wealth beyond that of famed investor Warren Buffett. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/record-highs-for-facebook-stock-pushes-zuckerberg-past-buffett-2018-07-06
  8. Worth Reading the Article by Tom McClellan VIX Spike Takes it Above All of its Future VIX Spike Takes it Above All of its Futures - Free Weekly Technical Analysis Chart - McClellan Financial If a trader can anticipate & journal-to differentiate his trading emotions induced by market movement (ie bear / bull trap, head fake, stop loss run, negative cycle / price correction etc) from the resultant emotions induced by crowd reaction / volatility than perhaps he would better understand how to insure his fear or hedge his trading plan from his primitive mind trading it. VIX is something every, day-trader should study & journal relative to complacency, fear of missing out & eventually fear itself. Volatility is directly related to extreme emotions & such could be understood better by Studying & Hedging with VIX. Secure your mental capital, so a trader can HAND-SUM-LY capitalise from Fear Barter Well with This <Lanky Lady.> http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/general-discussion/4807-poem-lady-market.html#post51613 Enjoy Minoo
  9. Historical VIX corelation to S&P 500 Normally VIX trends in opposite direction to market rise, unless more funds have started to hedge their Long Portfolio by buying SPX put options What Does This Rare Positive Correlation Between VIX and S&P 500 Mean Is it due to the political tension and US Gov Closure risk or are the Markets trying to tell us something. Watch the Below Video What Does This Rare Positive Correlation Between VIX and S&P 500 Mean? ? Yori Trade World The Question in my mind / journal has changed from Q) Got Some Vix ? ----- > Q) Got Enough VIX Personal Note: As S&P established new highs my mind was used to buying Cheap VIX contracts (ie VXX Options) From Last Friday (12th Pre-Bank-Holiday Week Closure) VIX started to creap up. My mind did not get an bargain as it was used to and I did not buy enough of VIX contracts this time. But had to buy some at the Friday Close with news of Gov Closure, obviously keeping VIX higher even though Markets establish new Highs Take Note of this rear occurance of VIX & S&P +ve corelation fellow Traders Trade Consciously of Euphoria & Risk as Mean-Reversion Event falls behind in time and becomes more prominent. Rising VIX (as Fear): Could be interpretated for the Given Market Conditions as: Gauge of Fear to the DownSide Reversion has Increase to the Prevalent Fear of Missing Out, Q) Will the Traditional Safe Heaven, US Dollar make Base or Rise Suddenly. If so Base Metals may take the full brunt of Dollar Rise. Q) Would we witness Bonds Bottom soon or Choose to be wiser again with Hindsight ? Trade Well Minoo
  10. Dear Fellow Traders Sorry I cannot reply to you all personally (no I do-not know much about trading bit coin, my teenage son does much more than I do) But what amazes me is some of you are already calling this the Bottom of Correction ES Opening Hour Low (2555.50) has not even past the first hour when I started to write this in between scaling out of my positions. Kindly observe the market and not trade against it, Be patience, let the emotions (ie Volatility) drain out of the markets I have COP myself out (Consciously Out Position) ie Will manage my existing positions and book profits but not take new positions This could be the completion of corrective action Or Just the start of several Corrective actions. Why try to Guess the Market action when its full of Panic & Emotions (ie High Volatility) I have now booked most of my profits in VIX as fear is shot up to extreme levels (ie momentum to downside and increase in Volatility). Time allowing look at some of the VIX option Prices & Implied Volatility note how quickly it shoots up too (But equally there could be days and weeks of stagnant or loss with VIX remaining complacent and down, of course if planned properly than one could call this time of accumulation (low implied volatility in VIX (LoL, it sounds funny) Just imagine if you would have put 10% of your profits to VIX Options and as it fell with crowd complacency. At new Indices highs you could plan t o Average into a good position and also could have booked some profit & Hedge your other remaining Bullish positions with holding VIX This could have allowed your Trading Self to buy into Crowds Complacency and also provided a Good Hedging Mechanism which helps inner trading self to root and remain balance (The Best I know for my trading Psyche to keep my primitive mind predominant auto nature Occupied and Satisfied) (Also as you hold VIX positions you are also not afraid of over night fall and if the market does not give you an chance to get out than at least you have VIX which would have rewarded you well and kept your inner traderself less fearful and balanced) By the time Complacency turns Suddenly into Fear you would be in Good Position to Capitalise both financially and remain balance at market extremes. Or How else do you make most of other peoples complacency and pent up fear to Balance your one inner Trading Self. For an Good Trader It needs to be an Zero Sum game not only financially but also Emotionally, If you do not plan to trade off your fear away than you will build up bigger position in it than you can handle, and more often than not, your primitive mind will kick in and take over all your discipline and written plans (If you know any such way to Trade Psychologically (fear-off) and remain Balance than you are more than welcome to contribute and humbly please enlighten us) Keep an Open Mind, so you allow your Psyche to remove any BIAS and trade other peoples fear and Bank your Financial and Mental Capital The market as always and forever is a willing teacher but our complacent or fearful nature both hinders these opportunities to what is on offer to learn, and capitalise the very thing we all poses through our primitive mind but our leaned mind trading plan fails to plan and capitalise on. “The market can stay irrational a lot longer than you can stay solvent!” You Simply have to plan for that irrational market in your trading plan, so as to not let your primitive mind take over your learned mind relegated trading plan Trade Well Keeping The BIAS and Fear away Minoo
  11. These new Articles are in line with the thread theme 'Charting The Past Bear' https://www.thestreet.com/story/14342432/1/black-monday-flash-crash-emotional-investing.html https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-16/a-crazy-stock-market-is-punishing-sellers 1987 Versus 2017: Will History Repeat Or Just Echo? | Zero Hedge Goldman's Bear Market Indicator Shows Crash Dead Ahead, Asks "Should We Be Worried?" | Zero Hedge Option Expiry Week is normally Positive But remember its October-OE week without the 'Sell in May' effect Plus we are here with Fear of impending Market Correction (ie Market/Crowd will latch on any Bad news if its to Correct or Crash) Last remaining Good Big News on Tax Cuts are being Priced in (ie Market Consolidating and may initially Spike-Up) But What after Such Event ? Will it give you the chance to Lock in profit; And Will your Big Bullish Self allow to Book some Profits What will Successful Bull BIAS Psyche make one Believe &/or Do? Time to at least have a Plan (to live / die by) Trend and Trade The Bull Carefully Much Good Trading Sense to you Folks Minoo Note: Keep an Eye on alternatives Small Companies, Base Metals, VIX & the all mighty US Dollar they may bring out 'The Market Bear'
  12. Question Ask Was How do we Protect from the Anticipated Downside, which has failed to play out ? Attempted Answer: I can only chime here what I have started to do increasingly in the market -Locked in Profit to Get out (I am out over 80% of my Portfolio Positions which cannot be executed during over night hours, also have Tighten my Stops on the remaining Positions) -To make most out of a sudden drop or to strategically Hook the Top in (As market establishes new highs percentage of locked in gains is allocated; To go long in VIX and USD positions using Options and Futures) -Simple Risk Off Trade: Go Long Bonds & Notes ETFs (TLT, IEI, IEF etc) For me its not just worth risking these Abnormal Gains and still wait for market Top (or trying to time the top that's very Risky thing to do & remain long with anticipated Bears Fear) Simply Book or at least Lock in Profit and if you must than establish some sensible Hedges (ie Go long on VIX & USD) I am avoiding Gold Holdings as well as interest rates are far too low. One should plan to protect Financial-Capital as well as your 'Mental Capital'. (Think if the Bear strikes how good a position you are going to be in & what percentage gain is remaining to be on upside and How much to the Downside & most importantly will you have time to get out ???) As financially most have achieved its time to collect & protect; and equally to take care of Mental Part (I want to book profits now and not be sorry later, but rather make something if the Bear Strikes Suddenly) ie Balancing Both of Greed and Fear factor Within one traderself. Thanks for asking. All The Best Minoo Greed = Is also defined as 'Fear of Missing Out'
  13. Is the Bear waking up or the Bull trying to Push through make new Highs and Top Very concern with the Unusual Bank Holiday Activity in the Futures Market today Seeing such Volatility in futures market (ie Indices down, VIX & Gold up, Perhaps Bonds and USD may follow up soon) on Bank Holiday is much concerning There are several Gaps on All Indices to be filled at lower side and also at Historical Level much lower down. So many of the Cycles have failed on the correction side and Continuously Surprised us on the Upside. Is this October 2017 time to prepare and Go Hunting South with The Bears Seasonally (Short Term) or Cyclically (Mid to Long Term Correction to Bearish Cycle) ? Anticipated correction by so many pundits so far has delayed the correction; So are we at The Very Beginning of an Historical Moment Now (Oct 2017 Top & Crash)? Many have said the Correction / Crash may come, more due to Geo-Political reason rather than economical. But also true is a substantial Correction is overdue Technically / Cyclically speaking Is it worth taking any more Risk in the Market Upside any more ? Normally most are complacently (Low Historical VIX) indulgent and few hesitantly concerns become early Bears at such anticipated market Tops. More often than not The Market has continue and most of us cannot time either the Tops or Bottoms, So is it worth traders being nimble and caution and also have reached time to establish Hedge to our Portfolio. Keeping an Open Mind but noting as well The Very Unusual Market movement this October Bank Holiday. (The Scent of The Bear ???) https://banyanhill.com/exclusives/80-stock-market-crash-to-strike-in-2016-2/ Any Comments Welcome Regards Minoo
  14. These three videos remain very popular ones from Jeff Quinto on CME site and many have requested me to re-post the expired links in the first thread of this Post Please check below the new links for the Videos The Main Page at CME where the Booklet & Videos are Jeff Quinto's Theory of Futures Trading - CME Group Three Futures Day Trading Tutorial Videos by Jeff Quinto & CMEGroup Essential straight talk by an Veteran Trader & Mentor Developing Your Trading Strategy Theory of futures trading and provide a guide that will help you get started. Developing Your Trading Strategy - CME Group Building Your Trading Plan Insight into the way professional traders set realistic goals and track performance. Building Your Trading Plan - CME Group The Importance of Simulated Trading Simulated trading can be the key to your trading success. The Importance Of Simulated Trading - CME Group Thanks for all the appreciation and keeping this Thread Alive Enjoy Minoo
  15. Whenever I compromise my Trading Guidelines, I make it a point to spend some time for my Trading Psychology well being and study and revise some of my own guidelines & advise. Its a good thing to do, to remain rooted and progress further You do not let your slip-ups pass without bringing them to the forefront of your Conscious But objectively in the context of your own healing & betterment, Without the provocation of drama, self bashing, etc (make it a self-process instead) I found this old article title 'Pervasive Myths of Trading Psychology' again by Brett very essential. There is more to this article than the title suggests, it brings around multitude of Deliberate Awareness in one's consciousness TraderFeed: Three Pervasive Myths of Trading Psychology Thanks again Brett Enjoy Minoo
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