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Taylor Trading Technique

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This thread is to discuss the 'count' of the Taylor Trading Technique. For those unfamiliar, you can read about it in George Taylors book or in Linda Rashkes 'Street Smarts' book - Chapter 7 & 8.

 

Rather than discus the technique broadly, which is somewhat complex -- let's just dive into present-day conditions and decide what day we are on and why we think so...

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You'll have to bear with me as I don't really use the count specifically, but rather the concept of general fluctuation...but I will add input as I am able. I would very much like to see what some of y'all have to say about it, I am always open to different interpretations.....

 

This could end up being a really good thread I believe...

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It is difficult to just dive in. You either have to make a book up somewhat like Taylor or have some software that determines what day of the 3 day cycle we are in.

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In my view, Linda Rashke wrote a book about Taylors book that is much more useful than the original book. Thus, I will try to intertwine the two.

 

Taylor’s method implies that markets move with a natural rhythm that is made up of a buy day, sell day and sell short day.

 

Rashke pg 51:

“One of the most confusing aspects of Taylors trading technique is knowing whether it’s a buy day or a sell short day.†--- Taylor would often short on a buy day or buy on a sell short day due to a laundry list of complex rules. Thus Rashke came up with some explicit indicators.

 

concept 1 is the 2-ROC buy day.

 

"On the Buying Day Objective we expect support and we watch the tape to confirm this buying for support and for a rally to start" TTT, pg 9.

 

Here is an idealized version of this 2-ROC buy day concept.

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Here are some more examples to get this thread going. Feel free to chime in anyone.

 

First attachment shows common variation to the 2-ROC buy day -- which is actually a sell short day -- Taylor does a lot of this kind of double-speak in the book --- this is where it gets trickier -- but you can go back to the same concepts:

 

The 'Pinball Buy' is the second major set-up Rashke presents. Taylor writes (pg 10): "usually in a strong uptrend the decline low will be made in one session, the low will be made on the Shorts Sales Day, however, another decline will generally take place from this low and the testing of this low will come on the next day, on the Buying Day"

 

The writing only gets worse just after that -- better to stop and just use Rashkes simple 'pinball' indicator -- which is the 3-period RSI of the 1-day change in price. Essentially, you want a nice run of up days and one down day -- you should then look for price action that tests the low and then go long. The test can be a higher low or a lower low.

5aa70e0eb31e2_SnagItIdealizedComplex2-ROCBuyDay.png.64c3e1e8fe4ba8b0ba0ea200cf3c8350.png

5aa70e0eb7cba_SnagItIdealizedPinballBuyDay.png.6ab5cc0d8af40cd61b1d21d795b9c101.png

5aa70e0ebd575_IdealizedPinballBuyDay.thumb.png.c8e0798b79d636b6ca8f7ae4c5636182.png

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Street Smarts. Good book, though I wouldn't really use it to learn set ups...but then again I never tested them out...

 

I like the anti, it is similar to the way Chick Goslin teaches.

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In my view, Linda Rashke wrote a book about Taylors book that is much more useful than the original book. Thus, I will try to intertwine the two.

 

Taylor’s method implies that markets move with a natural rhythm that is made up of a buy day, sell day and sell short day.

 

Rashke pg 51:

“One of the most confusing aspects of Taylors trading technique is knowing whether it’s a buy day or a sell short day.†--- Taylor would often short on a buy day or buy on a sell short day due to a laundry list of complex rules. Thus Rashke came up with some explicit indicators.

 

concept 1 is the 2-ROC buy day.

 

"On the Buying Day Objective we expect support and we watch the tape to confirm this buying for support and for a rally to start" TTT, pg 9.

 

Here is an idealized version of this 2-ROC buy day concept.

 

 

What book are you talking about where she writes of Taylor strategies? I have Street Smarts and do not recall much of Taylor in there.

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When one discusses Taylor and the thoughts that others had/have on his system such as George Angell and Raschke one has to first of all realize that Taylor quantified the market. He measured rallies and declines and averages and kept track of it in what he called a "book". IMO what Taylor did was "clock" the price on a market. He had a full set of rules he used and strategies on what to do when the unexpected happened. All of these things together kept him on the right side of the market. Apparently, that is, for we have no real record that I know of, showing his abilities in the markets with actual money. Taylors system was comprehensive. It gave him a view on the market and a way to "anticipate" what would probably happen next. Now a sentence such as the last sentence usually provokes arguments on whether or not the markets can be predicted or not. I have tired of going around and around on this subject so I will use the softer language of "anticipate". I thiink we are all positioning ourselves to anticipate the next move and to cover our hide if we are wrong??? Anyway, Angell and Raschke both only used bits and pieces of Taylor system. I have never seen either one of them encouraging use of the whole system. I suppose it would be too tedious??? Nevertheless, some of the concepts that Taylor expressed are crucial to the integrity of his system. Angell toyed with some and changed them. Perhaps for the good, perhaps for the worst. However, I prefer "pure" Taylors way on those crucial concepts. One area was the way Taylor measured rallies as opposed to the way Angell adapted a way to measure rallies. I prefer Taylors method. Angell measured rallies as the difference bewteen todays high and yesterdays low. Taylor on the other hand measured the rally as being from the buying day low to the sell day high. The decline for Taylor was from the short sell high to the buying day low. For Angell the decline was the difference between yesterdays high and todays low (or previous days high and yodays low). Taylor says that the rally shows how much of the decline has been recovered. So, the way you measure rally the also affects how you see the decline. So if you slip in another way of measuring a rally such a Angell did then you have to change the way you measure the decline which is what he also did. Then it no longer is a primarily swing trading system but a day trading system. In addition, it also is not really a 3 day cycle system any more. Personally I prefer Taylors type of measurements as they are important to the heart of the 3 day cycle. Now while Taylors was primarily a swing trading system he had a method to use it as a daytrading system and in addition as a longer trend trading system. Why someone would want to change it up I do not know. Anyway, these are some of my thoughts on Taylor. I have many more.

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For whatever reason, this three day cycle does exist in most stocks and commodities. Taylor identified this cycle and devised a system of what to do for each day of the cycle. Each day in the cycle has a distinct name and specific strategies.

 

The first day is called a BUY day. This is when the market is taken down by the "smart money" to create a buying opportuntity for themselves. The next day is the SELL day and this is when they run the stock up to create a sell opportunity. On the sell day they sell the long stock they just bought on the buy day. The third day is the SHORT-SELL day. On this third day they run it up a little more and dump the rest of long stock they have left over from the sell day. Finally, they then short the stock on the SHORT-SELL day. The weight of this shorting puts too much supply on the market. When supply outstrips demand the rally of the SHORT-SELL day stops and prices fall. They then cover their short on the same day or next day (which is a new buy day in the cycle). The order is generally BUY day, then SELL day, then SHORT-SELL day. That completes a cycle. Then the cycle starts over again with BUY day and goes on.....There are variations to this theme but that is the basic theme under ideal conditions. However, conditions aren't always ideal in the market and Taylor devised means to deal with less than ideal circumstances.

 

How can knowledge of this three day cycle benefit you as a trader? By helping you to profit from the daily price movements that take place over the three day cycle. It is necessary to understand that the rise and fall of daily prices are after a PATTERN, tend to be REPEATABLE, and because of this they become somewhat PREDICTIBLE. These patterns tend to STABILZE the market, otherwise, prices would shoot straight up one day and straight down another day. They also create trading opportunities for the astute trader. Remember this: Profits in all stocks and commodities are only made possible when prices move. If it can be established that most of these movements have a pattern and this pattern tends to repeat itself, over and over again, then a case can be made for ANTICIPATING probable prices in the near future. Check it out for yourself. Most stocks and futures follow a 3 day cycle. Sometimes there is a variation of this cycle and it may be 4 or 5 days instead of three days but the point is the cycle exist. When there is a variation Taylor had rules to deal with it. What is important to understand is that a short-term trader can capitalize on this cycle to make money.

 

Three ideas explain the existence of this three day cycle, the structure of it, and the purpose for it. The FIRST idea is that prices in the stock market and in commodities are MANIPULATED. The three day cycle results from "smart money" moving prices to their advantage. There may be differences of opinions as to whether or not manipulation exist. I believe it does exist on almost a daily basis in individual stocks and commodities. One thing we do know. The three day cycle does indeed exist. Maybe you feel that if such a cycle does exist, then it must just be the pressures of supply and demand in a free market that causes the cycle. Who knows? What really matters is that they do happen and you can make money on them. Whether or not they are actually caused by manipulation is hard to determine, but manipulation does fit well in the theory. If you subscribe to the idea that stocks and commodities are manipulated then the appearance of these three day cycles will probally make more sense to you and the cycle will be understood as something created by the manipulators. Their reason for doing so is to create buying and selling opportunities for themselves. You might say that "smart money" has the muscle, and reason, to move stock prices. A SECONDARY idea is that this manipulation is carried out in STAGES over a period of 3 to 5 days. These stages become the elements of the three day cycle. Understanding the stages and knowing how to recognize them gives you an idea about what will most likely take place next, in terms of prices and direction of movement. A THIRD idea is that since the cycle is usually done in stages then prices will tend to form in a REPETIOUS manner. In other words, pricing action will tend to repeat because the manipulators are doing the same thing over and over. The manipulators may move the market down but they also have to support the market if they wish to continue using the cycle to make money. They may start a rise in prices but they must be able to stop the rise by selling the market with their long stock to realize profit and then shorting the stock. These two actions together increase the supply and result in lower prices. They make profits on their long stock which they sold during the rise. Then they short-sell and prices fall under the weight of all their short-selling. However, they must be able to stop the decline so they can go long again. They do so by covering their shorts. Then as they go long their buying stops the decline. This support created by short-covering and long buying stops the decline, and stabilizes the market. Thus the cycle is started over again. Smart money realizes they must be able and willing to STABILZE the market if they want to keep the cycle repeating. An unstable market can hardly develop discernable cycles. It would be risky for them if the market were unstable. In an unstable market they might short a stock and it keep going up causing them to incurr great losses. Or they might go long and it keep going down. So, it is to their benefit to have a stable stock that goes up and down in cycles. They just create the cycle and make sure they are on the right side of the cycles.

 

All stocks and futures have many rallies and declines within their longer uptrends or downtrends. Also the cycle appear in times of accumulation or distribution. In fact being aware of the larger context of what is happening (such as accumulation...distribution...uptrends..downtrend..) helps one to understand "why" variations take place in the 3 day cycle and in fact can be very useful in helping you anticipate variation. For instance, Taylor talks of what he calls a buying day low violation. This is when early in the session of the second day of the cycle (sell) a low is made BELOW the low of the previous day (which was a buy day). These violation appears more frequently in markdowns from distribution or longer term downtrends. So by seeing the larger picture it helps you to even anticipate these sort of violations before they happen. Taylor took several measurements when "clocking" the price action of a market. Over the 3 day cycle the main rally and the main decline become the basis of swing trading. Since they can be measured and quantified, and since they follow patterns, they can be projected into the near future. Notice I said projected not predicted. Perhaps a better word is anticipated. The three day cycle gives you a handle on anticipating probable prices at which to buy and sell the stock. Based upon the day of the cycle the stock is in, and the price action from the day before, the 3 day cycle projects into the near future (tommorrow) the most likely stopping points at which you would want to buy, sell, and short-sell the stock. Thus, in effect, the three day cycle helps you to anticipate what prices to buy and sell a stock at BEFORE the market ever opens the next day. When the market opens you already know what you are looking for. You are better prepared to face the open of the stock market than the average investor. You are in a better position to discern what is happening as the day progresses. When the market opens, if the stock is fitting the anticipated pattern, then you will already know at what price to get in and out of the stock. These price levels at which to buy and sell at are called target points. Taylor called them objectives for each day. In other words, the objective is to buy and sell at these price levels. To sum up Taylor is about discovering this cycle and seeing it in the larger context of this (accumulation, markup, dist, markdown..resistance..supply demand....pivot points ...etc), understanding why it is created, and capitalizing on it's repetitious nature.

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ok, great.

 

whether you call it 'manipulation' or just the natural cycle of buying and selling is just nomenclature. the market has a tendency to surge and then do 'shakeouts' --- its just the nature of a market. sometimes the shakeout is just sideways chop-chop. other times it is hard counter-trend moves to shakeout the weak hands. to me, this is just 'to be expected'... occassionally, you will get those non-stop one-direction type of moves --- but those are the exceptions. clearly, you need to develop rules so you don't get run-over in the exceptions -- but you also need to stay in the 'rhythm' of the natural buy/sell pressure of the market for we are in that type of choppy daily market the majority of the time.

 

Here is a 'Taylor Book' I have been working on and will be forever-refining.

 

http://bp2.blogger.com/_5h-SWVGx6Ms/RxDvHSyj7eI/AAAAAAAAAds/uSz9nHTUmAM/s1600-h/Taylor+Summary+10-5+thru+10-12.png

 

This past week had some Taylor aspects to it. Sticking with a Taylor bias would have made you money and just as importantly, kept you out of trouble.

 

Note that a core part of Taylors technique is to look for 'tests'. Test the previous day low, test the previous day high etc.... I would add to this a common tendency to go test the previous days 'high volume price' --- marked in bold as the number in the middle of each 'bar'. This is the price of peak volume (Peak Volume Price = PVP) for the day. This number very often tends to get tested the next day. Thus, if a buy day, I am looking to go long on a test of the low or a test of a previous PVP. Test means higher low or lower low -- just testing action is what you are looking for.

 

Review for the week:

 

Friday had been a strong up day and the first up day after a downswing. Monday was therefore a 'sell day' -- note this is very, very different than a 'sell short day'. don't confuse a 'sell day' with a 'sell short day'.

 

Monday you would expect the market to get marked up a bit so that smart money could then sell. The day was a holiday though (Columbus Day) and had low volume -- there was a gap down and it was a negative day. Thus, this was not consistent with Taylor but the day was inherently screwed up by the low-volume holiday. Note, Monday 'built lower value' than Friday. Thus we have a down day and the closing 'pinball reading' is 35. Note 'Pinball' is defined by Linda Rashke as the 3-period RSI of the 1 day change in price. Essentially, it is a calculation that, when low, shows that there is underlying momentum in the market --- consistent with Taylors comment about how in an uptrend, the low will often be made in 1-day.

 

Thus, we enter Tuesday on a 'pinball buy'. This is the same idea as a simple 'buy day'. You expect a test of the low (can be lower low or higher low) and you will look to get long. The market gapped up and then tested the low by making a higher low and then surging. This was classic 'buy day' action. Note that the market 'built higher value' versus Monday.

 

Now you enter Wednesday after a 'buy day'. This again is a 'sell day' -- you expect some buying pressure. The market gapped down, tested the previous days 'value zone' at 1567.00 and then traded up. Note that Wednesday 'built higher value' than Tuesday. It was not a classic 'sell day' --- it was a variation on it. The close was < previous day close so this is a bit screwy -- but the play was to buy on a test of the previous days 'value zone' and this worked. We thus enter Thursday with 2 up days -- 2 days of building higher value. Thursday is a potential 'sell short' day -- though not such a clean signal due to the lower close on Wednesday (versus Tuesdays very high close).

 

Thursday the market gaps up big. It builds value at the marked-up level (1581.25). It then attempts up out of that and gets very, very strongly rejected. It tested up out of the 1581.25 zone and drove lower. Thus, this is consistent with the Taylor Rhythm of it beign a 'sell short day'. This is a variation of the 'testing' concept. The market 'tested up' away from 1581.25. This 'test' up was the spot to short on a 'sell short day'.

 

Note that the market did pause in the 1570 'value zone' on the way down before shooting all the way down to 1556.25 on Thursday. Thursday closes with a '37' pinball reading. This is generally a buy signal for ES. Note that both RUS and NQ had pinball readings right near 30. 30 is number Linda Rashke uses in her book. But the S&P futures rarely go as low as 30 -- much more common for more volatile indices like NQ and ER2 to print those more extreme pinball readings.

 

So we enter Friday on a 'pinball buy day'. The play is to look for a 'test' lower and then go long. Well, we tested down but not much. This was tricky action due to the fact that we had just dropped from 1586 to 1556 intraday the previous day. We also 'tested up' into that important 1570 pivot. Thus, this is tricky structure to go long not far under a high-volume resistance zone.

 

The market did close Friday above its PVP, consistent with a 'Taylor buy day'. Thus, we enter Monday expecting buying pressure to continue. It will be a 'sell day' but not a 'sell short day'. Note that the 'sell day' label is really misleading in my opinion -- it really kind of means, 'we expect continued buying but the time to buy was yesterday, not today -- get out into the expected strength and then wait for a sell short day to go ahead and get short'.

5aa70e0f8614e_TaylorSummary10-5thru10-12.png.d18b84544fc5efb95e11dcbe5e5bcd80.png

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Here is a 'Taylor Book' I have been working on and will be forever-refining.

 

 

 

You have an interesting way of looking at Taylors concepts. I can see you have put alot of thought into Taylor. Could you please post a simple bar chart of the last 20 days (if possible) of the trading sessions that would also include the days of your last chart? Also include the volume and the open and close on the barchart. I want to check something out and need more days. Thanks!

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Friday had been a strong up day and the first up day after a downswing. Monday was therefore a 'sell day' -- note this is very, very different than a 'sell short day'. don't confuse a 'sell day' with a 'sell short day'.

 

 

Monday you would expect the market to get marked up a bit so that smart money could then sell. The day was a holiday though (Columbus Day) and had low volume -- there was a gap down and it was a negative day. Thus, this was not consistent with Taylor but the day was inherently screwed up by the low-volume holiday. Note, Monday 'built lower value' than Friday. Thus we have a down day and the closing 'pinball reading' is 35. Note 'Pinball' is defined by Linda Rashke as the 3-period RSI of the 1 day change in price. Essentially, it is a calculation that, when low, shows that there is underlying momentum in the market --- consistent with Taylors comment about how in an uptrend, the low will often be made in 1-day.

 

While I am waiting on the chart I would like to make a few comments.

 

If Friday was a buy day as you have suggested then Taylor would have been flat by the end of the day. He would not have carried any longs over to Monday (the sell day). Allow me to quote from his book the reason why. (The Taylor Trading Technique p 33)

 

"On a buying day when the stock rallies from the low and the gain is sufficiently large, we sell out the same day."

 

"The reason we sell out on the same day, is that the stock may open down and often does from a run up of this kind or it may open at the previous close on the selling day and spend the whole selling day and not reach the selling day objective - the buying day high."

 

So if friday was a buy day on the chart then monday simply would not have hurt Taylor. He would have been flat on Friday - per his rules.

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Thanks for taking the time to post all that info.
You are welcome. Perhaps I can contribute a little along. Taylor is an interesting character and his system is unique.

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I will try to keep it going.

 

Today was sell day and late Friday and overnight strength was sold aggressively this morning. Keeping the 'sell day' in mind kept you out of trouble today.

 

We have now built lower value 2 straight days. Despite Friday being an 'up close' -- price was 'accepted' lower by forming a PVP at 1570 vs Thursdays 1581.25 level.

 

Thus, we have 2 straight days of building lower value. Tomorrow is another 'pinball buy day'. Look for a test of the low to go long. Remember, this is just a guideline.

 

Realize that there is substantial volume from past days in the 1570.00 zone so a direct push up into that level could set up a short.

 

There are 2 key concepts with Taylor.

1) look for 'tests' of important pivots.

2) look for morning reversals on key days.

 

We 'tested' up out of 1570 late on Friday and onto Globex overnight. This test led to a morning reversal and a hard flush lower.

 

Tomorrow, I will potentially be looking for a morning reversal either on the test of todays low -- for a long-side trade --- or potentially looking for a morning reversal into 1570 resistance for a short-side trade. It just depends on the action but that would be my high-level thinking for now.

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Thanks for your post to keep this thread alive. I am not sure how you calculate what day it is (B, S, SS). I have a couple of ways I do it. One is strickly Taylor. The other is when there is an abberation in the market it "may" cause the day to change. I can't get into the details of it but what I have found interesting is that you end up on 10-15-07 calling for 10-16-07 to be a buy day. I ran both my calculations and I come up with both calculations saying it will be a short sell day on 10-16-07. My strategy for tomm would be to short. I would try to short near 1574 to 1576 or higher if market trades higher. I would be watching the tape for the entry point. However, I would only short it if that high is made within 2 hours of the open. I would then cover the same day on any decent decline. I would not go long tomm if tomm is an SS day.

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<<The other is when there is an abberation in the market it "may" cause the day to change. I can't get into the details of it but what I have found interesting is that you end up on 10-15-07 calling for 10-16-07 to be a buy day. I ran both my calculations and I come up with both calculations saying it will be a short sell day on 10-16-07. My strategy for tomm would be to short. I would try to short near 1574 to 1576 or higher if market trades higher. >>

 

so you are looking to short 74-76? that is +15 pts vs the close. That is a long way up.

 

It is not really clean in terms of what it is Taylor-wise.

 

The pinball reading is low -- but we haven't had multiple up days in a row so its not a clean pinball buy day. The 2-ROC isn't real low due to Thursdays low-close. But we traded 65k contracts at 1581.25 on Thursday -- a significant amount -- and we have now flushed out many of those longs as we built value at 58.75 today, down -22.50 points lower than Thursdays value level and -35 pts high to low. A lot of volume built up in the low-mid 50's today and someone was buying down there. This sets us up for an up-auction attempt -- which may indeed fizzle.

 

Tomorrow could very well be a 'sell short day' -- but that might play out more in the afternoon anyway. Its option expiration week so maybe we get a roller coaster 'complex' day where we go lower, test way up and then close very low -- consistent with a sell-short day. No matter what it is though, I will just be watching my oscillators at key pivots and look to make a few low-risk points that way.

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so you are looking to short 74-76? that is +15 pts vs the close. That is a long way up.
Yes, I know it is however, it must make the high earlier in the session or I'll pass. I know with the low close it appears the low might be made first but you never know. I won't short it if it makes the target price in afternoon. It has to make it early in the session. BY noon at the very latest and preferably within 1.5 hours of the open.

 

It is not really clean in terms of what it is Taylor-wise.
Not exactly sure what you mean by this but I think alot of it depends on how each of us interprets Taylor.

 

The pinball reading is low -- but we haven't had multiple up days in a row so its not a clean pinball buy day. The 2-ROC isn't real low due to Thursdays low-close. But we traded 65k contracts at 1581.25 on Thursday -- a significant amount -- and we have now flushed out many of those longs as we built value at 58.75 today, down -22.50 points lower than Thursdays value level and -35 pts high to low. A lot of volume built up in the low-mid 50's today and someone was buying down there. This sets us up for an up-auction attempt -- which may indeed fizzle.
Taylor never had the pinball approach. However, if it is an adaptation to Taylor that enhances his methodology I see nothing wrong with that.

 

 

Tomorrow could very well be a 'sell short day' -- but the key is if a high or low is 'made first.'
While that is the ideal sometimes the pattern doesn't pan out. When it doesn't Taylor had rules in place to deal with the problem. Taylor for the most part didn't believe in changing the book up. He taught to always keep it in the same order B, S, SS days. Page 15 The Taylor Trading Technique "The book is always kept in this order, never change the continuity".

 

ON page 41 he discusses shorting a stock on a SS day. "We try to make all short sales on the high made first on penetrations of -selling day highs-This is the most favorable action for your play-we would not "put out" a short sale where the stock or future opened down and declined further, without a rally, for this action would carry the implications that rally, should it start later in the session, may cause the closing price to be up near the high of the day and this would make the high last on a short sale day, indicating a future rally." Three things can be deduced from this Taylor quote:

 

1) Not all short sell days trade up first. Some trade down first.

2) The ideal short sell day trades up first and is the most favorable play for shorting.

3) Do not short a high made last on a short sell day. Because that high made last indicates the trend as up

 

I see tommorrow as a short sell day. However, if it doesn't act like a short sell day, I pass. If it does then I know what I am looking for in terms of taking a trade. Taylor didn't allow taking a long position on an SS day. While I admit it looks like a good place to take a long position (with low close and trend heading up tomm) one might get away with it, this time, but the the next time get hammered. Taylor was about finding the one main trend and not riding the many cross-trends. I believe you have to watch the tape to determine your exact entry points. It is mechanical but it is also discretionary. I also find correlating volume with price useful in Taylors methodlogy. For instance, VSA can be useful in correlation with Taylor. I think you have done the some correlation in your pinball effect. Interesting!

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Another point I would make is that IF 10-16-07 is a SS day then 10-15 was a sell day and it also was a BV. That means it's low sold under the low of the previous session 10-12 (which was a buy day). So, a BV and a low close on 10-15 indicates a probable failure to penetrate the target price on 10-16. The target price would be the shorting point and it must be made early in the session. One could short the failure to penetrate IF it is made early in the session but would be risky to do so (because the decline could be arrested)and Taylor didn't recommend it. He would say wait to short on the next buy day on a high made first. The point is that the decline is likely to be arrested today 10-16. The day may end with a high close. If so, that would point to a high open on 10-17 (a new buy day) and be the better shorting opportunity. So, even though 10-16 is a SS day IF it doesn't pan out right it would be best to stand aside and not short so as to not get caught in the cross current.

 

If however, the decline continues and the close is on or near the low on 10-16 then we have an established downtrend and it could continue on down for more days causing more failures to penetrate the target prices. In such a case shorting would be limited to shorting on buy days only (even on failure to penetrate) and one would go long on the succesive BV's being made and selling out the longs at any pentration of the buy day lows instead of waiting for penetrations of the normal target price, which is the buy day high.

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It would be interesting to see how one sees the price action that took place today in the ES within the context of Taylor concepts. I have my view on it as expressed in previous posts I made but now that the day has ended we can reflect upon what happened. Anybody familiar with Taylor want to give it a shot? So far just dogpile and myself are doing most of the posting on the thread. Maybe not many have studied Taylor? Granted, he is a hard to understand writer and ones give up many times before finally understanding his concepts.

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    • "without bearing any loss?"  That's a really tough question n meat.  Are you serious?! "without bearing any loss" - hm?  Can you think of any trade or investment that is completely risk free?  Can you think of any trade or investment that is completely loss free? I've seen even routine, highly reliable ( at the time ) arb's lose money try this - go to japan , borrow 10 billion yen, leave 'japan', go to _________, never make the first payment on principle or interest ... whoops- that has risks too.  try this - start your own bank... whoops that has risks too.  try this - start your own digital cash.  If you play it right, all you risk is your time on the computer and your connectivity costs   ... if you really need to avoid loss, stay away from trading - period! ... bcse you are going to have 'ANY' loss in trading. Better to embrace loss.  Both intra personally and in terms of your capital, make each loss the best, minimum/optimum, loss it can be ...     PS Stick around some helpful soul will tell n meat to get on sim and practice until ... I'll take bets right now it won't work for n meat   PS when is the next Lab meeting?  I have an agenda item to add... TL needs to order new GM mice from a different vendor
    • https://www.wakingtimes.com/2018/08/14/8-things-you-need-to-know-but-probably-dont/ these are not really things traders should know... just sayin'
    • Benjamin A. Rogge
       
    • Date : 16th August 2018.

      MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 16th August 2018.



      FX News Today

      Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are up 1.8 bp at 2.880%, 10-year JGBs up 0.7 bp at 0.094% as of 05:35GMT, as stocks move up from early lows on trade talk hopes. Asian sold off early in the session amid concerns over global growth and particularly China, after a Sino-related tech slump saw Wall Street heading south yesterday. Reports that China and the US are preparing a low level round helped to put a floor under markets, however, and mainland China bourses managed to move higher, while other indices are up from early lows. Topix and Nikkei are down -0.78% and -0.21% respectively. The Hang Seng is still down -0.395, but CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp are now up 0.61% and -0.20% respectively. The Kospi slumped -0.87% after returning from holiday and the ASX 200 is down -0.035. Meanwhile, US futures are moving higher with Chinese markets. Oil prices are slightly up from lows and the September US oil future is trading at USD 65.10 per barrel.

      FX Update: The Dollar and the Yen have both weakened, giving back recent gains amid an improvement in risk appetite. The US and China have agreed on a new round of trade talks, while Turkey has managed to halt the rout of the Lira and secure major investments from Qatar and China’s Alibaba. The USDIndex (DXY) is showing a 0.3% decline, at 96.44, heading into the London interbank open, while EURUSD is concurrently showing a 0.3% gain, earlier printing a two-session high of 1.1397, putting in some space from yesterday’s 13-month low at 1.1316. USDJPY has settled in the upper 110.00s after printing a low in Tokyo at 110.46. AUDJPY, viewed as a forex market proxy on risk appetite in global markets, is showing the biggest move with just over a 0.5% gain. Over the near-term, the Dollar and the Yen will likely remain apt to weaken before settling as developments on the latest phase of Sino-US negotiations are awaited.

      Charts of the Day



      Main Macro Events Today

      UK Retail Sales – expected to grow by 3% YoY in July.

      US Housing Starts – expected to increase to 1.26 mln in July, compared to 1.17 mln in June, with building permits also expected to increase breaking the 1.3 mln barrier.

      US Initial Jobless Claims – stabilisation to approximately 215,000 slightly up from 213,000 from last week. Continued jobless claims are expected to decrease slightly to 1.75 mln from 1.755 mln last week.

      Support and Resistance Levels



      Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

      Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

      Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

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      Click HERE to READ more Market news.

      Dr Nektarios Michail
      Market Analyst
      HotForex

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    • I would like to know any factor before investing that would cause the fluctuation. Please help!
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