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  1. I read somewhere on this site that technical analysis doesn't work for day traders. It sounds like most traders are having a hard time discerning what's important and what's fruitless with regards to intraday signals. I am starting this thread to cut through the clutter and tell you how the markets can be traded in ANY time frame. In this lesson I will explain the two most elementary technical signals on the chart: price rejection and price acceptance. I'll bet that most traders have a hard time determining the general intraday trend and I believe this is due to your dependence on ultra short term charts, such as 1,2,3 or 5 minute charts. Moving out to 15 minute and 30 minute charts one can see things that are basically invisible on 1-5 minute charts. What I like to see on a 15 or 30 minute chart is a hammer or doji candlestick following a consolidation or range breakout. What is the psychology behind the hammer? Price moved from the breakout zone to some new level. Then price then retraced towards the consolidation zone and was rejected (hammered) back into the direction of the new trend. The breakout of that hammer bar IS THE ABSOLUTE SAFEST BET YOU CAN MAKE!!! Why? Because if the market just got hammered away from a price level, what do you think the odds are that price will immediately return to that level? Not very good odds at all. The doji is similar in nature because it still shows price rejection on a lesser scale, but also vividly displays the mini-consolidation which leads to a continuation move. And both breakouts CLEARLY DISPLAY WHERE TO PLACE YOUR PROTECTIVE STOP, at the other end of the hammer or doji bar following the breakout of that bar! Since the number one rule of trading is to always know your risk BEFORE you enter a trade, this is the best indicator in trading. (It doesn't hurt to have MACD confirming your trade direction, but it is not imperative). Just use the 20 period moving average as your trend filter and NEVER trade against the trend on the 15 minute chart. Price acceptance is when the market moves to a price level that previously turned the market around but this time doesn't, thus indicating that the market may still go further in its present direction. This is most useful when the market is searching for support or resistance after a prolonged move and you are trying to decide whether to exit or add to your position. I'll leave trade management for another discussion. Hope this helps! Luv, Phantom
  2. My broker (Jones Mutual) advised me to use candlesticks when CFD trading, as the simple line graph option does not give you enough information - is this correct?
  3. Hello! I am new to this forum. I am interested in learning about candlestick reading. I would appreciate hearing from any that will answer this post WHICH book you found the most helpful?
  4. One benefit of Apple selling off today is that it's an excellent reminder to always Trade What You See, Not What You Think! No disrespect to the Apple fanboys, but I trade what the price and volume action tells me and keep emotions out of it. You should too... Ok, flame away!
  5. Good Morning All: If the title sounds a little confusing, it was meant to. The issue to be discussed today is not just 'when' to trade. There are trades that can be done any time the market is trading. That does not mean that you should be trading all day long, it just means that the times you pick to trade can be any time, IF you know what to trade. This series of articles discusses this issue, and are geared toward the 'intraday trader', not the swing trader. That was the opening paragraph the last two parts of this three part series. Last week we looked at the key morning reversal times, and began to discuss lunch. Today we will discuss lunch, and the afternoon reversals. When to Trade What, Part 3 of 3 Lunch: Lunch can be a little tricky to pin point on some days. At its broadest moments, lunch begins after the 11:15 reversal time (remember, all times are ET, market time) ends the move, and can last all the way until the 2:15 reversal time. This is what typically happens on sloppy, non-trending days. On nice trending days, lunch may be as short as 12:00 until the 1:30 reversal time. The most precise reversal times over the lunch period are 1:30, and 2:15 (2:15-2:30 range on most days). Below is a typical day. Notice a few things, and then look at the charts for yourself. These revelations will save you, and make you money, everyday. 1. Note the range (the fluctuations from the highs to the lows), or volatility, before lunch, after lunch, and during lunch. Note again, from last week, the power of the 10:00 and 10:30 reversals 2. Note the volume during lunch. 3. Note the last playable event was at 11:30, and the next one was at 2.15. 4. Note the narrow bodies and tails during lunch; you do not see the rest of the day. These are the reasons traders get frustrated at lunch, real moves rarely happen on the market or typical stocks. And After Lunch: After 1:30 comes the 2:15 time. If 1:30 does not begin the afternoon move, then 2:15 will. If 1:30 does produce a big move, then 2:15 is often the target. The last times of the day are 3:00, when the bond market closes and 3:30, which usually provides the high or low into the close to end trading for the day, as the last 30 minutes is often sloppy. Here is one more chart. Here we see another typical day. You will find, when you study this, there are only a small handful of patterns that happen over and over again. Here we have a retest at '1' that holds for the end of lunch. The first playable move is the 2.15 reversal, and finally the 3.30 reversal ends the pull back for a rally into close. Paul Lange Vice President of Services Pristine Capital Holdings, Inc.
  6. When starting to learn about technical analysis you begin by sifting through a maze of tools. Some have what seems to be a magical ability to locate support and resistance. Most of these tools locate these areas by "connecting the right dots" on the chart. However, there are differing opinions as to which are the right dots. Support and resistance areas are also located by using moving averages. These too can have pinpoint accuracy, but which ones? If you continue on this path you'll eventually settle on some combination of these tools, but I guarantee that you will also be second guessing them forever. Let's look at an example of what is real and what is not. In the daily chart of Apple (AAPL), we see that prices stopped their decline right at the 200-period moving average. The 200-MA is the most widely followed moving average by traders and institutions, so it is the one that often does become a self-fulfilling prophecy. For this reason, I also put the 200-period moving average on my daily charts. However, I also look to the left to see if there is confirming real price support. As we can see, Apple did not has pushed through the 200-MA and is on its way to real support. Years ago, I realized the only real support that could be relied on with consistency was based on price. However, I didn't come to this realization until I removed all the moving averages, trend lines, Fibonacci lines and even the horizontal lines from my charts. Consistently I saw that while prices stalled at a widely followed moving average, the majority of the time that stall was temporary and prices continued to real support- as Apple did. Do prices ever stop and reverse from a 200-MA without price support to the left? They do at times because of the self-fulfilling prophecy. The way I suggest you handle this is to at least let the 60-minute timeframe reverse trend before trading against the daily trend that has stalled at the 200-MA. Let's look at that. The 60-min. chart of AAPL is a clear series of lower highs and lower lows. When the bounce from the daily 200-MA happened, prices stopped right at price resistance, which was an unfilled gap and reversed. With prices having been rejected right where they should have been, the odds of a test of the pivot low that formed at the daily 200-MA was high. On this chart is an excellent example of how to play a breakdown strategy in the area of prior support or any breakdown for that matter. As we know, there is going to be buyers in an area of support. However, when the trend is down and there's no "price support" to the left (a Pristine Price Void, PPV) in the higher time frame, the lower timeframe support is likely to fail. What we see happened when AAPL bounced from support on the 60-Min. is that sellers took advantage (green diamond) and pushed prices right back down. This little bounce and failure sets up a shock for the buyers and signals that prices are ready to resume the move lower. That candle marked with the green diamond was a large green candle engulfing the prior before it turned into a Topping Tail (TT). With that signal in mind, we have a short bias to take into a lower timeframe of choice (I'll use the 5-min.) to look for entry points. That being said, those trading from the 60 min. timeframe can take the signal under the candle marked with the green diamond. Moving down to the 5-min. timeframe, we are expanding the data to see more detail of the price action that will provide signals not seen on the higher time frame. The green diamond at the left of the chart marks the same point on the 60-min. chart. While 60-min. traders will be entering after the greater than 100% retracement seen here on the 5-min., 5-min. Those that have taken Pristine Seminars will recognize the secondary signs of continuation that I have marked with light green diamonds. The first is what we call a 180 reversal or a Green Bar Ignored (GBI). The second is a Money Bar setup that Pristine Trained Traders use after a breakdown has already happened. These setups have shock value and are entered after the candle forms marked by the light green diamond. With a PVV below, you can count on prices moving lower. I hope you've gained a few insights into to seeing what is real and what is not in technical analysis. Most spend their time studying what is not real when starting out and many never stop. PRISTINE - A trading style, often imitated, but Never matched All the best, Greg Capra President & CEO Pristine Capital Holdings, Inc.
  7. Good Morning All: Last week I continued with part two of a three part series to help beginners, and maybe some 'veteran' beginners also. Last week we looked at different time frames and the types of accounts used to encompass those time frames properly. We talked about how education is so over looked by so many yet so needed, as everyone will pay their dues one way or another. Here is part three. In this issue, are finally ready to begin trading, so let's go over some rules to get you off on the right foot. A Beginner's Handbook Part 3 of 3 Once you have made all the decisions that were discussed in the first two lessons and have received an education to the level you feel you need to begin trading, the decisive moment arrives. At this point, I want to make sure you have a few tools in your tool belt when you begin trading. First, there is a steep learning curve in trading. I suggest (well, insist if I can...) that you start out slowly with very minimal risk amounts. Get used to your trading software. Understand the plays. Begin to pick your favorites and really develop your trading plan. At this point your plan is likely just a 'shell'. Know how to get in and out of trades. The odds are that you will lose in the beginning. You are learning how to apply what you have been taught. You will make mistakes. The question becomes, do you want to have all this learning cost you serious money or small money? By the way, it is good to start out paper trading, but as soon as your plan develops and you know your trading software, begin trading very small risk amounts. The most important aspects of trading are not learned trading on paper. Most of you reading this need to understand something. The vast majority of traders who come in to the market fail. Many people try to do this without any education, and those who do are the first ones to fail and usually do so in a big way. However, even with an education, it is not an easy game. There are reasons why even somewhat educated traders still fail at this. For most, there is a lack of discipline by individual traders regardless of whatever education level they may be at. In addition, a lack of capital that forces traders to trade with 'scared money'. It is simply a fact that most traders try to make a living from the markets with very little capital base to work with. That causes over trading and poor management decisions. If you have been trading for a while, do any of these things sound like they are powerful issues that are currently impeding your progress? Another skill you must develop is the habit of keeping good records. Keeping records and statistical information can give you an excellent insight in your trading. There are many things that traders should track such as Sharpe ratios, batting averages, percentage gains based on any particular strategy, percentage gain based on long or short, etc. During this process you should be perfecting your trading plan. One that out lines the types of plays you will look for. It should restrict you from trading certain times and plays that you do not want to trade. It should outline money management rules for you, for handling both winning and losing days. It should set up your share size rules, and it should dictate what kind of record keeping, analysis, and continuing education you will do. Some of these I touched on in prior week in this letter. Here is one of the most important things you can do for you trading plan, and for your continued improvement. Pay attention to the analysis part and make plans to follow up on all of your trades. Most traders spend 90% of their time trading. 10% on preparation and 0% on follow up. This is a very big mistake. Traders should spend as much time following up on trades as they do trading. That does not mean that from 9:00 - 4:30 must be counted as 'trading time'. Your plan may call for you to trade the first hour and last hour. The time in between could be used to review the morning trades and prepare for the next day, paper trade new ideas, etc. You should spend considerable time printing charts of the trades you make and evaluating them and learning from any mistakes. Good traders understand that the money lost when making a bad trade can be an 'investment' in a process that works to eliminate mistakes and improve trading. Closing Comments Good traders also understand that the market is always right, and the best we can do is play the odds. Be flexible and remember that even the best trades can be stopped out. This is the final article on "A Beginners Handbook". Paul Lange Vice President of Services Pristine Capital Holdings, Inc.
  8. Good Morning All: Last week I started part one of a three part series to help beginners, and maybe some 'veteran' beginners also. Last week we looked at the difference between a 'buy and hold' philosophy and properly managing all trades. We talked about how things have changed, and how most 'fundamental' criteria are not very helpful. We look at charts for the truth, and manage because things can change quickly in today's environment. Here is part two. In this issue, we want to expand on those things and discuss what time frames you may be interested in trading. In addition, we will discuss how to get an education for varying budget and time constraints. A Beginner's Handbook Part 2 of 3 We briefly touched on the concept of time frames last issue. It is an important topic and is the next item that needs consideration before you begin trading. The concepts of 'trading' can be used to help people who are looking to better manage their IRA. They can also be used for people trying to build wealth by swing trading investment money, and for people trying to produce income by trading on an intra-day basis. This last category includes traders that are often called "day traders" or "scalpers". If you are going to be active in the markets, it is recommended that you maintain 2 separate accounts for trading. These two accounts will have different goals and objectives. One account is a 'wealth building' account. It is for core and swing positions. Core positions are positions based on weekly charts and can last from weeks to months. They have stop losses and entry points like any other trade. Targets may be set as an objective or left to an exit based on raised stops as the stock moves up (or lowered stops as stocks move down in the case of a short). Swing positions are based on daily charts and can last from 2-5 days. This wealth building account is important to capture the major moves in the market. These are moves that may elude the trader who goes home flat every night. Gaps and large extended moves will benefit the swing and core trader, but will often only aggravate the intraday trader. The second account should be 'income producing'. It consists of day trades (ranging from minutes to all day), and 'scalp' trades. Scalp trades are a specialized form of trading. They are designed to make money from very small moves in stock by using large share size and very tight stops. These strategies help to keep income flowing, even at times when the market may be moving sideways, and not generating income in the wealth building account. Once you have decided on your time frame, it is time to begin. Not time to begin trading, but rather time to begin to get an education. Trading is one of the most challenging endeavors in which one can participate. Unfortunately, most traders will spend more time getting educated in the television market before buying a television, than they will spend getting educated in trading concepts before buying a stock. Most traders do not feel the need to get educated in trading. Most traders also fail. No one would try to be a doctor or a lawyer without the proper schooling. Yet for some reason, new traders feel that this is an 'easy to conquer' profession. The truth is that some of the smartest and most successful people often have the most difficult time trading. Continuous success before trading, often translates to over confidence and stubbornness while trading; this is a bad combination. You have to be able to admit when you are wrong and move on quickly. Successful people often become perfectionists; this is a quality not suited for trading. Good traders don't insist on getting them all right. The goal is to make money. Doctors often want to 'save the patient' at all costs. In the market, sick stocks are cut short quickly. Do you know, right now, what strategies you want to play in this market? This month? This week? Today? Do you know what strategies you want to play at different times of the day? Do you know how to handle all of the market maker tricks? Do you know how to handle reversal times? You see, the market is designed to extract money quickly from the unknowing. It is a game where very many supply much money to the very few. What side of this equation have you been on? You need to develop a trading plan that outlines your total business plan when it comes to how you want to trade. You need to outline the strategies you want to use, and when you want to use them. You need to outline money management rules. How much will you risk on that scalp? How much on that core trade? How much can you afford to lose in one day? To do this, you need to begin to understand trading and all the concepts it involves. This is the single most important step, and I could go on for hours. Yet, the vast majority of new traders do not have a plan. Everyone has a different level of money and time they can devote to getting educated. That is fine; there are different ways to approach your education. Some want to improve their core trading to help the returns of their IRA while they work full time at their job. Some want to make their living trading the markets full time. Make sure you start out paper trading or trading very small risk amounts. As you get educated, move up the share sizes very slowly and only upon success. Most traders lose too much in the beginning before they get educated, that they cannot come back by the time they are educated. Don't let this happen to you. Closing Comments There are those that continue to pay the market every day, only they often walk away with very little education. Some traders lose more money in a week than it would take to get a good start on an education. Don't be one of the people with the mindset of, 'When I make enough money trading to pay for a seminar, I will take it then....' Think of the logic in that statement. The training must come first, or it will never come. Paul Lange Vice President of Services Pristine Capital Holdings, Inc.
  9. Discipline: "To know and not to do, is not to know" As I sit here contemplating the subject of discipline, I think back at the early stages of my trading career. I heard the word so often but never really understood how it fit in with trading the markets. First off, let's get to know what the word really means: The dictionary describes it like this: "Training to act in accordance with rules" When someone is winning or succeeding at something, discipline is easy to follow. When someone has experienced defeat, discipline is a wild animal that is looking for a victim to attack. Better said, when your losing, the rules go out the window. Now think about that in your trading career. Its 9:50 am EST and you have increased your account for the day by some $500. That's $1500 an hour! You sit on the sidelines not wanting to risk this precious gain only taking the most perfect textbook patterns. How easy is that? Your momentarily happy and go out of your way to kiss your spouse, pet the dog or cat, nothing can get you down. It's a great day! We'll, let's take a peek at a different scenario. It's 9:50 am EST and you just lost two trades in a row; you are down $500 in your trading account and you absolutely despise hearing someone that is having a great trading morning. Your spouse says good morning and you don't answer or say something to appease her/him so they won't talk to you for a while. The family pet comes over and all you can say is "beat it Rover" and your immediate thoughts are, I have got to get this money back. It's 10:00 am, you see a questionable trading pattern and if you tilt your head to the left and then turn your monitor at a 45 degree angle you can see signs of glory that has $500 written all over it. Your trading plan just went out the window and if you listen closely, you can hear the snarls of the un-caged animal lurking over head. Oh, by the way, his name is "Discipline". You take the trade and you earn your $500 back. What a great day just to be even. The cycle continues until the stock market zaps every last dollar from your trading account and you become another statistic. This just doesn't work you say, as you fade into the distance never to attempt trading again. You lay dormant as another victim that has been serious wounded by the faceless market. Does any of this sound familiar? I bet you can begin to relate to the reasoning behind this message. My friend, discipline is an animal that intends to throw you off course, ditch your plan and humble you. If you have a trading plan, (and you should) you need to honor that plan at all cost of temptation. I know you want to rid the grief of losing for that day so you do what most people do, they move to HOPE MODE and that just wont cut it. You need to find a way to make certain your plan will stay intact when days like this come, and they will! Design you trading plan with this in mind. Set parameters on how you will handle the rest of the trading day. For example: will you scalp only; reduce your risk; only be allowed to trade once more that day if you lose; there are a number of things you can insert into your plan to avoid this discipline killer. Once you experience how powerful it is to just follow your plan and not give way to "Hope Mode" the faster you will learn the skill of discipline. I would be happy to see you join us and to answer any questions you may have. Good trading! Jeff Yates Contributing Editor Interactive Trading Room Moderator Gap, Intra-Day and Swing Trading Specialist Instructor and Traders Coach
  10. The chart and question shown was posted at the Pristine Facebook Group. Below is my posted answer. The concept of being extended is difficult for most, if not everyone at some point for several reasons. I will discuss reasons generally and then in some detail. However, a complete understanding can only happen in class, but let's start here. Extending means stretched out and suggests a return to a more "normal position." However, to most technical traders and investors, the word extended invokes the belief that the trend is close to over. Being extended has little to do with trends ending. Actually, extended initially suggests that the trend will continue. The first step to clearing up the difficulty to understand extended is to realize that most taught methods of defining extended are based on completely subjective measurements. These have little to no consistency to define the end of a trend. Many times, they don't even result in a retracement to a believed normal position. This leads to confusion and of course a lack of confidence in the method. Exactly, what the question is communicating in the example using a moving average (MA) as a measure. There are various technical tools to measure extended, but we'll discuss MAs now since that is what was used. As with all technical analysis tools there are choices to using them like the settings. Different settings will give different signals or measurements and then setup different beliefs based on them. For example, if we use a simple 20-period moving average verses an exponential one we will see those MAs at different levels. Which one is the right one? Prices may appear to be extended from the simple type since it moves slower than the exponential. What if we use a 10-period moving average instead of a 20-period? Prices may appear to be extended from the 20-period, but they are not from the 10-period. The 10-MA is averaging in the more recent prices were as the 20-MA is also averaging in the older prices as well and will be slower and further away. Depending on what you have been taught or read, you will have a different set of beliefs about what is extended and possible. If you are convince to change the MA type or length, your beliefs change. Soon you'll be second guessing all of them. Been there? Next, I am sure you have seen what is seemingly extended in one time frame that is not extended at all in another. For example, the 5-minute time frame may appear extended, but the 60-minute move has just started. In an example like that, traders focused on the 5-min. can be fearful of continuation patterns or breakouts and require a retracement. However, retracements often do not occur leaving those watching see the move become more extended. In fact, the chart and question is how to handle such situation. Without an understanding of how to interpret and combine multiple time frames anyone would be confused. Lastly, and this comment is likely to raise a few eyebrows, but addresses a deeper understand of what the question relates to. The belief that prices are extended - even in a higher time frame - and that a trend is unlikely to continue is false. It will leave you scratching your head as you watch the extended prices become even more extended. Here is the key and what I hope is a light bulb moment for you. Historically, prices will continue trended higher until the Pristine Price Void (PPV) is closed, Major Support (MS) is violated or resistance is created. In other words, there is no objective reason to think the trend will end, so don't. Pristine Trend Analysis is based on the concept that a trend will continue to a price reference point were traders will sell at. Without that reference point (a Void) to sell at, traders are just guessing at what is extended and where the trend may end. I wrote about this in a Chart of the Week (COTW) titled, "You Have Been Setup to Fail as a Trader." The distance to a moving average alone is incomplete information and misleading. Adding additional indicators like oscillators will add to the confusion. There are hundreds of these indicators to choose from and when you add the choices of the settings possible, the combinations are endless. It's no wonder why there is mass confusion about technical analysis based trading. Clearly, extended is a subjective idea if based on a single concept like the distance to a moving average. Students of the Pristine Method® learn to use Multiple Time Frames, Trend Quality, Relative Strength and Weakness, Support, Resistance and the lack thereof (Pristine Price Void), the influence of the Market or a Sector, Market Internals, Inter-Market Analysis and others. There is a lot to learn to become a professional in any field and technical trading/investing is no different. If you are trading stocks, a futures contact like the S&P 500 e-mini, a commodity or a Forex currency pair based on generally accepted technical analysis tools. Odds are that you are thinking that there is no way you will ever understand price movement. You can and it does not have to be complicated. However, it does require the right education. All the best, Greg Capra President & CEO Pristine Capital Holdings, Inc.
  11. Hello everyone, I have seen a lot of places state how certain candle stick formations such as a Marubozu or a hammer have a probability of being a reversal and even sites like thepatternsite.com has probabilities of each type of candle and its likelihood of a reversal or a big move, but I can not find any information on the internet about how to work out these probabilities myself. I was thinking of doing it in matlab but I was wondering if that was the best way to do it, is there any other ways that would be better or faster? If someone out there has all the data that I could see, that would be really interesting. I look forward to hearing your replies, Best regards, Vig
  12. Candlesticks are simply a way of representing price data in a way that traders can easily interpret. Individual candlesticks only give an indication of what is happening in the market in the present time, but candlestick patterns (two or more candlesticks) can be used as determinants of future price action and are a great tool of technical analysis.
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