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Showing content with the highest reputation since 07/31/08 in Posts

  1. 6 points
    bootstrap

    I Look Back Now and Wonder

    I wasn't sure where to put this, so the powers that be can move it if they see fit. I put it here for anyone who is just starting out and wondering what it really takes to become part of that elite club of profitable traders. I lurk on several trading forums. I join a few and make a few posts. One thing that I rarely see is the painful path one took to becoming successful. So for all you beginners here is what becoming successful took. For my fellow brethren that are already in the club have a good laugh. The markets had always lured me as a kid. I would read the paper and make predictions. Sometimes they were right; sometimes not. Then one day I got that famous commodity-trading flyer, sent my money off and took the plunge. My first stab at trading was commodities and I started with $5k in 1991. I was using the strategy as outlined by the guru. The account was gone within a few months. Well that didn’t work. I thought, people do this everyday and make money why not me. So off to the library. I read every book the Memphis library had on trading and investing. I paper traded the strategies I found while I built my bankroll back up. I learned exits, set-ups, position, expectancy, market psychology, and portfolio management. I soon realized that I was reading the same thing over and over no matter which book I checked out. Time to build my strategy. I am ready to do this. I bought a new computer, Metastock Pro 6.0, and opened an account with $30k. Its 1995, and this is my shot. By 1997 I was toast again. The family life went to hell in a hand basket, and I thought I could trade through the difficult times. The result was an account with a balance of $2500. Back to the drawing board. Took care of the personal stuff. Lived like a monk raising capital. Worked nights and watched the market during the day. Took a second job on the weekends to raise more money. Then one day out of the blue, the little red and green candles started to make sense. I saw patterns develop over and over in the same spots. I placed a trade and made a profit. But I had done this before. I removed the MACD from my charts. Placed another trade and made a profit. Maybe I am on to something. Removed the channel indicator that I stumbled across. I could still see the action and new what the MACD was doing and where the action was in the channel without them even being on the chart. I even stopped drawing trend lines. It was just me and the screen. I planned every trade. I knew exactly when, where, and why I entered and exited. I was patient. I became a predator. Lurking and waiting. I took every shot the market gave me. If it started to go wrong, I got out quick and waited. If the market did not give me an opening, oh well. There is always tomorrow. By the fall of 1999, I was consistently profitable and have been ever since. For those that are waiting for the sales pitch, there isn’t one. For those that are waiting for me to expose some great secret, well there isn’t one of those either. What I will give you are a few simple pointers that I learned the hard way. And the sad part is, most will stilll learn these the hardway. 1)Take everything you read with a grain of salt. That includes this post. 2)Never pay for a system. It is just not that easy. 3)If something comes up in your life that is distracting, stop trading. 4)Plan every aspect of your trade down to the smallest detail, and plan for every possible outcome. 5)Develop your own strategy. Don’t let someone tell you that you can’t trade a simple moving average if you truly believe you can. 6)Test the strategy in the market that you will be trading. If you like the results, trade it in another totally unrelated market and see if it still holds up. 7)Paper trading is ok, but there is nothing that truly tests the strategy like hard earned cash. 8)You will have to make sacrifices in order to make it. I still do. In the middle of my learning period I was working 18 hours a day during the week and 12 on the weekend. 9)You are responsible for everything when it comes to trading. That includes stop running, bad fills, limit moves, your PC crashing. I mean everything. See #4 10)And last but probably most important, don’t be afraid of failure. Just do like Edison and go, “Well that didn’t work”. Good trading to you all.
  2. 3 points
    LindsayBev

    Best Candlestick Book / PDF??

    Donald, here is the pdf version of the book, if you are interested. While a bit "salesman-like" in its approach (all of what he claims cannot possibly be true or it would be the Holy Grail), it was packed full with pictures, commentary and helpful information. Enjoy. Profitable_Candlestick_Trading-HERE.pdf
  3. 3 points
    rangerdoc

    Wyckoff Resources

    I'm not one to make a habit of bumping old threads, but based on earlier discussion, this is clearly the best place to post a link to the original Wyckoff course: The Richard D Wyckoff Method of Trading and Investing in Stocks: A Course of Instruction in Stock Market Science and Technique. Wyckoff - Course.pdf
  4. 2 points
    bootstrap

    Why Screen Time Is Important

    Here is something that should get pretty lively.. Since everyone keeps telling you that screen time is important, there has to be something to it. But nobody is telling you what you should be looking for. What is it going to teach you? There has to be something that those who do this for a living see that you don’t. Well there is. And just like the magician that exposed the secrets to magic tricks on national TV, I am going to tell you what we see. But before I do remember one thing. Take everything you read in a forum or book, or hear from a guru or in a seminar with a grain of salt. Question everything. Only when you prove it to yourself, does it become the rule. What I am about to share can be found on thousands of sites and in countless books. If you have done any research at all, you have come across Dr. Elder’s triple screen, or some permutation of it. You understand the principles behind using multiple frames of reference. What has most likely not been explained to you is why it works or how to apply it correctly. In most cases you are only given a single example. Single example you say? Yes, when most first stumble across using multiple time frames, they follow the rules of: Use the upper time frame to identify the trend, the middle time frame for the set-up, and the lowest time frame to enter. If by chance you are not familiar with the triple screen just goggle “triple screen +elder”. Trading instruments exhibt three different types of market action in any given frame of reference. You use multiple frames of reference (i.e. Time or ticks) to identify the current market environment. These markets are: Trending, Trading, and Volatile. Why screen time is so important is that all instruments do not exhibit the characteristics of Trending in the upper time frame, Trading in the middle, and Volatile in the lower at all times. They can be in any one of the following combinations at any given time: Trending/Trading/Volatile Trending/Volatile/Trading Trading/Volatile/Trending Trading/Trending/Volatile Volatile/Trending/Trading Volatile/Trading/Trending Or any one of 84 possible market combinations if you consider Volatile/Volatile/Volatile. Like the major pairs in Forex, the combinations I listed are what I consider the major market combinations. The elusive secret that you are looking for, and what screen time teaches you, is to identify which market combination you are in and then how to trade what you see. Or better yet, when to stay on the sidelines. Each combination requires a different strategy, and some may not be tradeable at all. If you are trading across a broad range of instruments, you only need to master one. The fewer instruments you trade, the more market combinations you may have to learn. But you have to learn them one at a time and only add the next one once the first is mastered. But you ask what about Trending/Trending/Trading? Or how about Volatile/Volatile/Volatile? Or if I use Weekly/Daily/Hourly I get Trending/Trading/Volatile but if I use Daily/Hourly/Min I get Trading/Volatile/Trending. One step at a time grasshopper. One step at a time. As I mentioned there are 84 possible combinations. Multiply this across thousands of instruments and countless frames of reference, and I hope you get the picture. You do not have to learn them all. You only have to learn the few that fit you, your chosen instrument and frames of reference. Find the market combinations that are most prevalent and learn to trade only those. This is why it takes screen time to learn to do this, and why each trader is different. It is also why three traders in the same instrument will be doing something different. Trader A will scalp, trader B will be a buyer, and trader C will be seller, and they all make money. They are using different frames of reference and therefore see a different market
  5. 2 points
    DbPhoenix

    Trading The Wyckoff Way

    Put simply, support is the price at which those who have enough money to make a difference are willing to show their support by retarding, halting, and reversing the decline by buying. Resistance is the price at which those who have enough money to make a difference attempt to retard, halt, and reverse a rise by selling. Whether one calls this money professional or big or smart or institutional or crooked or manipulative or (fill in the blank) is irrelevant. If repeated attempts to sell below this support level are met by buying which is sufficient to turn price back, these little reversals will eventually form a line, or zone. Ditto with resistance. A swing high or low represents a point at which traders are no longer able to find trades. Whether that point represents important support or resistance will be seen the next time traders push price in that direction. But everyone knows this point, even if they aren't following a chart. It exists independently of the trader and his lines and charts and indicators and displays. It is the point beyond which price could not go. Hence its importance, both to those who want to see price move higher and those who don't. The first two posts to this thread address these matters, as do others here and there. However, finding S&R in real charts in real time takes more than just a couple of posts. But one must understand the nature of support -- and resistance -- itself before he begins to look for it. Otherwise, he will find what he thinks are S&R in some very peculiar places. Before coming to any conclusions about what “works” or “doesn’t work”, and thus does or does not provide an edge, one ought to keep in mind that a given event -- such as price seemingly finding support or resistance at a trendline (or moving average, candlestick, Pivot Point, Fib level or whatever) -- may be only incidental to what is truly providing that support or resistance. A fundamental misunderstanding of how "indicators" are calculated and what they're supposed to do can lead to all sorts of off-task behavior. We think we see the indicators indicating something, or not, and believe we have made an important discovery. We then devote our efforts to improving the hit rate and the probability of whatever it is we think the indicator is indicating when our efforts ought to be focused on determining whether or not the indicator is actually indicating what we think it's indicating. In most if not all cases, it isn't. Consider the virgin being tossed into the volcano: sometimes it results in a great crop, sometimes it doesn't. Maybe tossing her in earlier or later will change the probability of a healthy crop. Maybe two virgins are better than one. Maybe six. Maybe tall virgins are more effective than short ones. And surely age is important. But does the robustness of the crop really have anything to do with tossing the virgin into the volcano in the first place? The money under the pillow is not evidence of the existence of the tooth fairy, and spring will arrive regardless of whether the virgin is tossed into the volcano or not. (Db)
  6. 1 point
    Binaries aren't designed for you to win in the long run learn to trade spot and get better at risk management, you'll do better overall vs binaries
  7. 1 point
    :haha: I hear you say. But really. I think that this is perhaps the single biggest factor in the high failure rate of new traders. Perhaps it would be better put that you should not expect to make money. Let me put it in a different way. A beginner will come into trading and have had very little experience of anything similar. The market will however look familiar somehow and tease them into thinking small successes are down to skill. After all, humans like certainty and are quite happy to congratulate themselves when they think they are good at something. Would you expect to pick up a guitar and then a month or two later be playing at a rock concert? Would you expect to pick up a paintbrush and shortly after have an exhibition on display at the Louvre? Probably not. The difference is though that poor trading costs you your money. Coming into trading, you will be pitted against seasoned professionals, massive hedge funds, banks and computer systems to name but a few. Losses early on affect more than just your bank balance. They affect your emotions and your ability to learn and develop confidence in your understanding of markets and methods you use to trade. If you don't understand how to 'take a loss' this can be catastrophic. Do yourself a favour, when you start trading, trade to trade well, not to make money!
  8. 1 point
    Yeah! That's my pleasure
  9. 1 point
    zdo

    Gauge upcoming high volatility

    Have you looked at tweaking https://www.incrediblecharts.com/indicators/chaikin_volatility.php Basics = On charts: - statistically speaking, nothing has been found in markets that comes closer to following linear cycles than 'volatility' - statistically speaking, sideways ‘congestions’ are followed by ‘volatility’ - statistically speaking, narrowing ranges are followed by expanding ranges “statistically speaking” means these indications give no "gauge" / information about the size of next move or the risks involved... only that ‘activity’ typically follows ‘inactivity’ ie-with options, nothing (outside of astro) is reliably predictive of the variance of the next move... ie with buying options, you have to figure out a way to play all the major waves in order to be there for the outliers ie- hope you’re writing ‘insurance policies’ into screaming volatilty instead of buying them in dead volatility... who makes money ? the insurer or the bozo who buys policies left and right... took taleb years to figure that out and he’s a pretty smart cookie... sorry - off topic now.... and congestion time is due to end ... hth
  10. 1 point
    BBBBrian_1

    Brian's investment record

    3 samples from record: AXP First acquired 1 or 2 years ago, for about $ 77.74. A Warren Buffet favorite, with good financials. Sold June 29 2018 after putting a sellstop order on it, an idea from day trading, and Wyckoff, which I learned about on this forum. Profit $ 1822.97, cost of $ 6770.5 or 26.92% CNK- a questionable acquisition, made after selling WFM, just prior to the Amazon announcement ( doink!), which announcement jacked the price to $ 42. Profits were to be had, but, riding the escalator, as it were, I simply watched it go up and down. " But theatre attendance is increasing!" Good luck with that one. https://www.the-numbers.com/market/ XHE healthcare etf, health equipment, I don't know when I originally purchased this, but mI just sold it, again after hitting a sells top, for a $ 3,149.45 profit, or 50.32% All non taxable since this is an IRA account. I am now siting in 90% cash waiting out d.t. Rump hysterics and phony trade wars; using simulators to see how it might go with " active " trading", where I wake up enough to smell the roses when a stock gets to a high point. While I feel fortunate to have a gain, it took a long time and a lot of heartache, watching values tumble and dip, especially UNP and AXP. I left a lot of profit on the table. I am reading Wyckoff now, and dB, trying to learn and follow these ideas. Brian
  11. 1 point
    Gamera

    Testing Times.

    Actions for the 30th.
  12. 1 point
    Learn to identify momentum and scalp. If you need leverage, trade futures or options.
  13. 1 point
    WildPete

    Reading Charts in Real Time

    Stopped for the full -1R. God Bless.. WP
  14. 1 point
    Learning is the only way you can be successful in this business. There is no other way or system which can make you rich within a few days.
  15. 1 point
    What I've learned so far that you really should have a record of what you've done on the market. Not necessary every position and detail, but the outcome, mindset and the triggers of your actions. This way you can examine your motivation behind following a plan or a gut feeling etc. This way you won't only have numbers, but the documentation of what was going on in your mind while you made a given trade.
  16. 1 point
    CrazyCzarina

    Forex Trading Vs Stock Trading

    Your success depends upon the trading strategy being adopted by you. It is not only important but absolutely necessary that your trading strategy must have inbuilt strengths to make you a successful trader.
  17. 1 point
    Jason Solomon

    Help me choose a forex market

    Thanks Donals, I'm grateful for any aspects on what to trade.
  18. 1 point
    Stocks4life

    Breakout and Gap Stocks

    $TEVA (TEVA) stock nice opening breakout, from Stocks To Watch,analysis http://chart.st/TEVA
  19. 1 point
    mitsubishi

    The obscene practice

    Black=white Peoples Party= There's a few million reasons why I'm not into collectivism You see, this is why Farage is such a giant in politics. What he instigated with Brexit is difficult to measure at this point in time. It may be the beginning of the end of the one way street that is the tyranny of politics. History says the victory will be fleeting. There are certain things that you can count on continuing throughout your life time. THE BASIC RULES OF POLITICS 1- The truth is irrelevant. Therefore liars do well in politics. 2- The goal is to maintain power regardless of the human/monetary cost. Therefore socipaths do well in politics. 3- The working practices of power are to carry out the agenda at the expense of the people. Therefore pedophiles and anyone open to blackmail do well. 4- The only way to remove a political party is to replace it with another one. History has shown that this is an utterly futile process. There literally is no difference between one pedo or sociopath or KLEPTOMANIAC to another. 5- The only way to keep the people in this pointless voting charade is to allow a few human beings into the mix occasionally - just enough to give people hope that things might change. However, this is risky as we have seen with Farage. (I'm tempted to mention Trump but only because of how shocked the system was to see him win, not because he will change anything more than Obama did) 6- There is a way to defeat this endless negative cycle but most people believe somebody else will come along and do the job for them. When humanity realizes that real change begins with the individual, things wiill change. (Hence why collectivism is the go to system for all parties regardless of what they call themselves). However. the longer we leave it the more difficult the task will be -The prison is becoming ever more sophisticated at an alarming rate. 7- The trend can continue for longer than you can stay alive. There are only 2 choices at this point in time. 1- Help to change things, regardless of the personal cost. Thanks for your sevice Nigel. 2- Learn to love your slavery.
  20. 1 point
    zdo

    ,,,just Sayin...

    ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oBmp8OOJ8sE Everything to the right on your chart is free information
  21. 1 point
    mitsubishi

    ,,,just Sayin...

    Apparently, the murdering psychopussy military industrial complex is suffering from 'Middle East Fatigue'. Oh dear, the poor little lambs must be bored of killing 500k innocent people and displacing 10 million others all based on a pack of never ending lies. Obviously, you won't need the host to give you a blow by blow account of how you're being treated like a 5 year old..
  22. 1 point
  23. 1 point
    jpennybags

    Off-topic Posts

    Gamera... Just another example of seeing things differently. Considering the lines that I've added to your chart, how may you have traded differently through the session? No need to answer the question here... it's just offered for your consideration.
  24. 1 point
    dbelov275

    Forex Trading Vs Stock Trading

    Thank you so much. it was really helpful. I think i should think about my level of risk tolerance before making a final decision.
  25. 1 point
    mangolassi

    Forex Broker

    Are you serious with this post? Name one institution that trades with MT4. MT4 is a joke that is used by beginner forex traders for two reasons: 1) it is free, and 2) it is very simple to use. Institutions that are managing large amounts of money use custom platforms that are tailored for their needs, especially if these institutions are banks trading currencies with each other. MT4 doesn't even meet the standards to be called a serious retail trading platform. Comparing MT4 to something like Sierra Chart, Multicharts, Tradestation, etc., is like comparing a plastic tricycle to a Ferrari. I am going to go ahead and call you out on this - if you really think MT4 is the "best platform" you've ever tested, you have only used MT4. Tradestation and Ninjatrader and others like Sierra Chart and Multicharts are used by a large amount of professional traders who trade various markets like futures, stocks, commodities, forex, etc. MT4 is simply used by beginner forex traders. I'm sorry, but MT4 is one of the worst trading platforms out there. You won't find any serious professional trader using MT4... if they are using MT4, they are usually a beginner still new to trading.
  26. 1 point
    gavind

    Forex Trading on Smartphone / Iphone

    For me, just for monitoring purposes. That's it.
  27. 1 point
    signalsprovider

    How to post a chart properly

    You are right Greed is bad in Forex....
  28. 1 point
    Patuca

    Beyond Taylor

    taylors book is complicated.. In my explanations i try and and cut to the heart of the matter. The area i see that could complicate things is all the taylor adaptations. Not that it is a bad thing..i made adaptations myself...but it seem to me that folks first need to learn the basics of taylor, as used by taylor, then build on that foundation and make the adaptations they deem necessary later on. It is kind of like football. When a team struggles, many times just going back to the basics and drilling them over and over again will correct the problems but jumping around to every new fangled play concept can add confusion and bewilderment which affects the final results on the playing field. Markets change and i am all for adaptations but some things are basic and have to be learned by rote so to speak. I know this thread is to explore ideas beyond taylor and that is good AND NEEDS to be done but how can we do that if we have no clear understanding of taylor at the basic level? Ole windbag WHY? Who i know personally as done alot to explain taylor at this basic level. But he is old and grippy and one never knows when he may get an inkling to contribute for a few days then he is gone...off the radar. I try and use alot of his explanations as i understand them. I would encourage posters to read his explanations on the taylor threads (as there are several) for a basic grounding. It can take years to read through taylors book and pull out the concepts that WHY? explains in a clearer format. Looks like we are range bound so far this morning. Breakout could go in either direction. It may be hard to actually take a position within the envelope numbers...jest have to wait to see what happens..tape showing weakness then strenght..have to see who wins out..bulls or bears..
  29. 1 point
    Patuca

    Beyond Taylor

    Here is the scoop on the ES. SEPT 6 2013 was the last trading session it was a BUY day in taylors cycle. You can short a buy day on a high made first like within first couple of hours of the open. You generally cover it the same day. If price drops fast (within the first 2 to 3 max hours of the open you would cover the short and look to go long if the low is trading near the low numbers. You then hold the long overnight or sell it on same day if the rally is hard and fast. But you can hold it overnight. The next tradingsession - sept 9 is a SELL day. On a sell day you sell any longs held overnight from the previous session (in this case sept 6th) and you can go long on any price below the low of the 6th if made within first two hours of the open. You then sell the long on the same day on any decent rally back towards the low of the 6th. So, to help us understand what would have happened on the 6th or how taylor would have traded the 6th. I know this is hindsight but to set the context i am going back to Friday 6th and pretend i was Taylor. My taylor numbers for 6th derived after the close of the 5th. Are thus: (note i arrive my taylor numbers different than he does..i will not divulge this info...but you could use his numbers i suppose: Possible high for 6th 1660 to 1665 Possible low 1643 to 1651 Now since the 6th is a buy day i know i can , according to Taylor's rules do either of the following: 1) short a high made first (first means within 2 hours max 3 hours of the open) 2) go long on a low made first 3) short, then cover, then long near taylors low numbers if both made within the first 2 to max 3 hours. I can then sell the long same day on any fast rally or hold for selling on the next day. 4) long, then sell long near taylor high numbers, then short near high numbers (if all wthin first two to three hours), and cover same day (do not carry short over to next day) So, how would taylor have trade last friday 6th? Please note i am using only RTH (regular trading hours O,H,L,C and ignoring night session..aftermarket prices) Ok the market opened on the 6th at 1659.25 (RTH). This is very close to the Taylor high numbers above. So, as Taylor what would i be anticipating? I would be looking to short (Rule #1 above). What would be my entry? Well, i would watch market .do a little tape reading to see if the market tops out within the high numbers above. When i see it stall i pounce and short. In this case it traded quickly up to 1661. I could short at 1661 or wait for the close of the bar (bar 8:35). That bar closed at at 1657 and was a bear bar with big tail on top indicating weakness. Taylor of course didn't have candlesticks so he probally would have shorted around 1659 to 1660. Lets say for some reason Taylor shorted at the close of bar 8:35 (1657). He would ride the rather fast decline down. He would be looking for the decline to stall around his low numbers. He would however watch the tape and if it went through his projected lows he would hold until the price quit declining. In this case it stopped declining on bar 9:00 at 1638.75. The next bar was a reversal bar indicating time to get out. So, at the latest taylor would be out on by the high of the reversal bar (1645) for a 12 point gain within the first hour of the open. Now before anyone protests; we know taylor did not look at 5 minute charts nor did he have candlesticks. Here, i am showing how i adapted taylors method to todays markets. Taylor used daily charts and timed his entries and exits with his numbers and fined tuned them with live tape reading. In todays markets i tape read off 5 minute charts with what i call "tape reading bar by bar". Somebody is probally having convulsions about now and saying that is not the tape. The tape is order flow..Dom..and Time and sales! Well, that is partially true but that sort of tape reading is mostly good for extreme scalping of 1 to 4 ticks. Taylor wasn't interested in that. He was after the big move of the day. I dont have the time to get into my style of tape reading but suffice it to say for now that a five minute chart s a pictorial view of the tape (order flow...dom...T&S ...transactions added together). Hence i coined the term (at least i have never heard it coined this before) "tape reading bar by bar". Now, back to the price action of sept 6. It is 9:05 CST and i taylor have made 12 points in the ES (of course we also know the ES didn't exist back then but play along with me here). Now according to my taylor rules for a BUY day (rule three) i can also go long because 2 hours have not yet gone by. So, i covered my short and immediatley take a long position for the tape says this is a reversal point (bar 9:05) so, i am now long at one tick above the high of the 9:05 bar (1645.25). I am looking for a rally and have nearly the complete trading session to get it as the market has only been open 35 minutes. Things are looking good. I look to exit on any good rally that heads back up towards my high numbers. My exit is flexible. I am even allowed to hold overnight and exit on monday sept 8 if i wish. However, if the rally is hard and fast then generally it is better to exit the same day. In this case it rallied back up fast and hard and then started going sideways. I decide to exit on bar 10:40 at 1658.75 as looks like we are range bound and i have a good profit already. So, i am out for another profit of 13.5 points. That makes 25.5 points for the day and it is 10:40. Time to go fishing....a little late maybe but the boat ride will be good. Ok ...so now we have seen how taylor would have traded fridays sept 6 price action. Now what about the next session sept 9 which is still future? I'll deal with that in another post before the market opens on sept 9, 2013 I am attaching a chart of sept 6th to help you visually see the above. This is for information only and not for real trading.. You could lose your money! Patuca
  30. 1 point
    Patuca

    Beyond Taylor

    Capt bob i will do this just to show that i can trade bigger trends using taylor (since all here view me as a stupid scalper) AND to show that taylor trading does work. I trade all kinds of environments..ways..tactics..strategies...etc.. I do not just scalp two ticks to 4 points in the ES and NQ at a time but i do admit i like the fast action scalping 10 or 20 lots...i get bored as a chicken in a hog pen on day to day swing trading....like mr taylors (may he rest in peace) Give me a few days to get primed up and in the mood....and to determine which instruments i will trade. May be more than one..Probally will. I use to use Taylors methodolgy exclusively with stocks but gave up my stock scan program and stock data so i am not sure how well it will work with futures. I have no stock data feed nowdays. If anybody uses TC2000 for stock data could you send me a daily ascii file (export)on say 15 stocks of my choosing. I can instruct exactly how to export the data file for my purposes from tc2000 in the form i need it. Quite easy and quick to do. It really is just a small file. Just need it everyday at end of market close. I will give a list of the stocks. Takes about 5 minutes each day to export it to a file and email it to me. Who can do this? i have a certain engagement that must needs be fullfilled sept 12 thru 18th (kentucky)... But say around the 19th i will plan on doing the first mr taylor (may he rest in peace) trade. Remember now, i will be using rather large stops so do not get alarmed. I will post the basic strategy and plan for the next day before hand after the close each day. Since i use tape reading for the final entry decision (as mr taylor did ...may he rest in peace) i will post my entry as i make it. Is that agreeable to you? I also, recalculate the days under certain market conditions (my secret) so you may see that a day changes from a buy to sell day IF certain conditions take place in the market. That is, the day may start out on the open as a buy day but change to a sell day under certain conditions which I will not divulge at this point in my earthly existence. However, if there is a change in the day i will post that change and the new tactic based upon that change BEFORE i take a position. Then i will tape read and make my entry base on the new day and will post the price of my entry...stop loss...etc. Are those conditions acceptable? I may make or lose money but will most likely make money:haha: I will not divulge my taylor secrets so i hope no one wastes my time or theirs trying to wheezle it out of me....but any other general Taylor questions i will try and answer as i have time and if i am able. Just to show mr taylors method can work adapted for todays markets... I am a taylor purist except for certain adaptations.......which i will not divulge..but which can be discovered and implemented by anyone.....perhaps... Ole windbag Why? knows Taylor really well. I personally know mr. windbag...(i call him that because of his incessant yada yada yada)...but he does know all of Taylors secrets...you might could go to honduras and wheezle them out of him..just don't offer any money or he may really get good and pissed and start on his ole ...there is more to life than money sonny...speech..which will embarrass you and may take a couple of hours of your time for his lecture..leaving you filling like a naughty child who put his hand in the cookie jar.... Patuca
  31. 1 point
    My biggest loss was time. Time spent looking at the wrong things, time spent trading without a plan or without real understanding of what was important, time wasted on indicators, etc. then time unlearning all the nonsense I had picked up. The money comes back with interest, but you can't ever get that time back.
  32. 1 point
    mitsubishi

    Next Big Thing

    Next big thing?..........Looks like the same old thing to me.Here's the recipe. 1) Get yourself a PR story that sounds too good to be true that the system is based on. In this case it is a maths genius (apparently,who,besides them say he's a genius?). Other famous PR stories are eg :a code based on a bunch of numbers mentioned in the bible (The Daniel Code).And: A genius who found the hidden order within markets,sold it to Welles Wilder,who called it The Delta Phenomenon. Or,if you are Steve Copan you call it The Market Matrix and pretend you're a recluse who only writes books,Cd's and once in a blue moon,seminars for a lot of money-because... you're a recluse. 2 )Do not tell anybody how the indicator works or what it's really based on (except it can only be based on past prices,therefore it lags and is not predictive) 3) Make a video showing the mysterious indicator "working" at the bottom of the cherry picked example chart. 4) Leave no doubt in the mug punter's mind that trading skills of any kind are not required just follow the "signals". 5) SIgn up to a trading forum,and in your first post tell us how you're thinking about signing up for this service and what do people think? 6) Get another spammer with 5 posts or less to say he's making money and it's the "next big thing" 7) If anyone bad mouths your operation or asks too many questions throw them out of your trading room. 8) When a trade set up is winning claim you are already in it. 9) When a trade set up isn't working claim you didn't get in it for reasons ABC. 10) If anyone calls you out on that throw them out of the room,but keep taking their credit card payments until they finally manage to cancel them-keep all the money and point them to the small print in the contract. 11) When business is slow,and after being thrown off various forums for soliciting,and after working with some of the biggest frauds,conmen and snake oil salesman in the "business",sign up for traders Laboratory and pretend your here to make friends and help struggling traders.When the long term residents call you out on your bullshit,turn pretty shitty pretty quick and cry like a baby that everyone's picking on you for no good reason.Threaten to leave -repeatedly without actually leaving.Carry on as if nothing is wrong and nothing happened until everyone is so sick of you the management is forced to act.(finally) Then,finally leave.Then come back almost immediately before finally understanding fully and intimately the phrase "go fkcu yourself" Then sometime later crawl back to give your expert opinion on the best way to run false accounts and statements while failing to see how transparent and ludicrous you look. 12) When things completely fall apart,leave the sinking ship owing 1000's to your customers and act like nothing happened. Hi Oliver,how's "business" these days? 13) Rinse and repeat until someone finally sticks your ass in jail (low probability) But hey,it's different this time isn't it?
  33. 1 point
    Just follow the blog and go into the archives...all tops and bottoms will be there before it all occurs. All this just explains is when a change of direction is going to happen and if its a top or bottom. It won't tell how high or how low in advance, because I have not broken into price vibration rate yet. I have conquer time and space thus far, but if I am going to break into the later than I have really prepare myself. Some times it is looking at meaning into one self and asking questions, but I come to these things because of my Spirit and Soul allows me. You have to be deeply honest and express things to self to make this kind of knowledge come to you. I do not boast neither do I care except to be just what I am. I don't know why God made me to be able I am just able. Just except the fact of truth in anything, but know what is good and best or great for all. All is One
  34. 1 point
    I'd strongly suggest to anyone who is serious about trading to think very carefully about whether using a mobile phone app for trading is a good idea. The interface, speed, reliabilty and security issues make it something I personally wouldn't do. If you have a position and you absolutely must leave, either make sure you have a way of getting through to your broker's execution desk quickly or close the position out before you leave.
  35. 1 point
    WHY?

    Beyond Taylor

    You are welcome. I have never tried adapting Taylor that way but my guess would be that it may work. I have just never been interested in investing in long term trends. I have adapted his method on intraday charts and seen some promising stuff down to 15 minute charts. Perhaps there is an element of human nature (as markets do reflect that) and perhaps Taylor discovered a manifestation of that in a 3 day cycle senario. Humphrey Neil in Tape reading and Market tactics said "the ticker tape is simply a record of human nature passing in review". I suppose if it does record human nature on a minute by minute basis it would also on a 5 min chart...15 minute..daily..or weekly..even monthly. The old timers of course read the tape from a ticker machine which served pretty much the same as a time and sales screen of this age but on a much slower basis. However, what I find interesting when these old timers discuss tape reading they do it from a chart and use a chart to show examples. Therefore, that makes me think; can the tape be read from a chart? That is, can the chart be considered a useful, grafical, representation of the ticker tape/time and sales and in itself be called "the tape". I decided it was so. Therefore, I call this classical tape reading. It really isn't the way they "read" the tape in those days but it is the way they "explained" the tape. See, if the ticker machine and time and sales can be seen as small increments of the tape why couldn't the tape be seen in a larger way such as a chart. After all, the chart is a representation of the ticker/time and sales. Cliff Drokes thought along these same lines and mentioned it in his book tape reading for the 21st century. A quick look at the old timers. Neil, Gann, Wycoff..their explanations of the tape were done in chart form. Actually, Tom Williams work does the same thing. It is reading the tape in the form of charts looking for institutional activity. So anyway, when I refer to reading the tape in some of my posts I mean all the way from the time and sales/DOM/Orderflow to a hybrid version of reading the tape from charts. Of course, the DOM/Orderflow/time and sale is basically meaningless when you are talking about a trend of several weeks. Gann (in The Truth of the Stock Market Tape) read and explained the tape for these sort of longer trends from a chart. The time and sale/DOM/orderflow have gotton so fast now days (unlike the ticker tape of days gone by) that with algos and all the HFT out there the tape moves faster and faster (even at a nano second level) that the human eye cannot pick it up. Some daytraders/scalpers have taken to using computers to help them read them tape and stitch back up big orders that have been broken up to hide footprints..etc. However, in the final analysis the product of the tape volume/price shows up on a chart. So, I have taken to reading the tape from the charts. I say all this about tape reading because it is my belief that to be able to use Taylor properly it will require not just a knowledge of the cycles ..etc... but also a knowledge of how to read the tape from a chart. That is how one is going to conclude if a decline has stopped at a probable Taylor Low or a Taylor High has been reached. Or failed to reach it. It helps one to anticipate failures to penetrate previous days cycles and stopping point for declines and rallies. Just calculating the average of Taylors decline/rallies...coupled with the three day cycle theory etc isn't enough to get the job done. I know this to be so. Taylor himself mentioned several times about reading the tape so I know that he did so in conjunction with all his analysis and averages and figures. He basically clocked the market like one would clock a slot machine but his final pull from the trigger came from tape reading. That is why for years I have talked about in my Taylor posts when I say my entry here or exit there depends on the tape. Most folks never catch it or maybe they don't understand the tape? That is why I listed those books in my pompous post as my intent was to give some resources to folks where they could learn about tape reading from what I call a classical view i.e. a chart. IT IS THE FINE TUNING OF THE TAYLOR METHODOLOGY. Trust me Taylor will only work well if one can read the tape for entries. On less than ideal day cycles one will miss the trend if they can't read the tape. Take my last Taylor chart (I refer you to post #216 and the post #212 anticipating the price action of #216). It was an ideal Taylor taylor BUY day. The market is taken down overnight for a shorting opportunity and I said that was what I was looking and I expected it in the night session (re-read my post #212..this was made before the fact). Then, when the day session started we had the reversal and a chance to go long and make a killing. But notice something here. The low didn't make it to the taylor projected low of 3-30 1395.75 or 1394.56.... my softaware forecast. The reversal came. If I couldn't read the tape and see that the reversal was here then I would have waited around for the market to make the Taylor projected low and I would have missed the move up. So, it was an ideal Taylor BUY day in terms of the Taylor Strategy (look to short and go long) and the direction (take the market down then back up early in the session) BUT it WAS NOT an ideal Taylor BUY day in terms of the projected low. Nor in terms of the projected high. My software projected a high of 1406.19 when the actually high after that great rally was 1419.75. Nothing but tape reading would have kept me in the Taylor moves for that day in spite of the facts that the direction being right and the short/long opportunities being righ (as not all Taylor buy days give a short/long opportunity.) This is a long way around the block to answer your question but me thinks it may be relevant to your question. So........ It is possible there could be a 3 week cycle? Or a 3 month cycle? Me thinks it is possible but then again tape reading, in the sense that I am discussed above,..well...it will be necessary as the time/sale/dom/ will be totally irrelevant to a 3 week cycle. You will have to use the sort of tape reading I am talking about. As much as some people don't like Tom Williams and VSA he did have alot of good stuff that is useful for tape reading. Wiliams is good too in the sense that this sort of tape reading I am talking about requires an analysis of the spread. The size of the spread says alot about the tape. The volume of trading on that spread size says alot too. We have volume and we have price and price spread and open and closing. I have never understood why pure price action people want to leave out that piece of important data, namely, volume. It tells how the price was made. And indicates the value of the price in terms of money and money is what moves the market. You and I don't move the markets. Institutions move the markets. And their foot print is the volume. Anyway I better shut up about volume. I will say two more things about volume. To read the tape like I talk about in this post one will have to take volume into consideration. The second thing is IF anything is a leading indicator it is VOLUME. I ahve nothing like it that helps me better detect probable future price action. Of course it can be wrong sometimes simply because institutions can be wrong sometimes. And institutions are battling out with each other and they all approach the market in their own way. One institution may start aggressive buying and that pushes the price up when a stronger one beings shorting and wins out. Either way the story is told in the tape (chart). And so much faking out goes on. Make the market look weak to drive down a few ticks so they can really buy at a discount price because their real plan is to take the market up. As much as some don't like Gann his book I mentioned it as being useful and especially Drokes book. Also,Silver mentioned Neils book which I had somehow left out but yes, it is important too. Why don't you make some books up on on these longer time frames and let us know what you find out? For those that are interested in extreme scalping based on tape reading the order flow and using a computer to do so can take a look at jigsaw trading. Google it. I have absolutely nothing to do with jigsaw so please mitt don't think that. I mention them as a resource only. For trading order flow from DOM look at NO BS Trading by John Grady. However, this sort of tape reading is very short-term and for scalping and isn't relevant to Taylor trading. It can be somewhat useful for scalping via Brooks methods if one likes to scalp and take longer Taylor positions also like I like to do. Hope all this makes sense. Probally won't be back for a bit. Why?
  36. 1 point
    WHY?

    Beyond Taylor

    Well guys I may disappear for a few weeks. I gotta do some other things and all this posting takes time and I ain't very bright so I have to peck the keyboard. I'll check back in occasionally and maybe add a post here and there. Just study the charts and posts and you will see how I trade Taylor and scalp at the same time. Why let time waste? Do both, if you think you might like scalping. Anyway, hope something was said that helps someone. Trading can be kept simple but it is hard work. I try to keep it simple for me and uncluttered but use these techiques that allow me to scalp, and trade the Taylor moves, at the same time. Here is forecast for tomm. It is a SS day in my Taylor count. I see it trading up first. It may or may not penetrate the high of 3-29 of 1404 but who knows. If it trades up early and gets close to 1404 I read the tape using techniques I gleaned from Arms, Taylor, Gann, Williams, Brooks, Droke and a few others. That would take too long to explain but in short I let the tape dictate to me my entry point. My pre-market Taylor analysis gives me a view on what may happen and helps me determine the day of the cycle. But the tape tells the real and final story so I fine tune my entries to it as I make my Taylor entries and exits. Anyway, the Taylor strategy calls for shorting any penetration of 1404 once the tape indicates it to be good to do so. My forecast give three possible highs with the highest being 1407.16. IF the price action takes place early in the session. If it doesn't make it early (like during night session or first couple hours after day session) then short when the decline begins but that will take some tape reading skills to determine that. If it makes or penetrates the high in the night session and looks like it may continue on up then I would wait and see how it goes and maybe even wait for the day session before shorting. However, if I think the high was made in the night session I will not hestitate to short in the night session. Whatever, happens if you take a short position on a SS day always be flat by the end of the day. That is Taylors rules. If there is no decline then pass on any Taylor trade for that day unless you have a mechanism that lets you recalculate the days on a the fly and work on the new info. My scalping techiques .....well most can be found in Brooks 3 volume set. One can then make minor modifications/adjustments. Anyone interested in scalping 1 to 3 points multiple times per day ....well I would strongly suggest they study Brooks well. Read his books several times. Don't buy his first book. Very hard to understand. Go to Amazon and order his new three volume set. You can also get them on PDF from Wiley Books, I believe. Mark them up. Study them for months. Next trade his concepts on a sim for 3 to 6months every day until you can get convinced. Then go live. He claims all you need to make money in the markets are in his 3 volume set. That is a bold statement. But, he is correct. However, it does take time and practice to get good at it (Brooks methodolgy). Don't think you will read the 3 vol in 3 weeks and start make money trading. You will have to study his techniques over and over and trade on a sim over and over until they become second nature. Please don't forget to use the 89 SMA and the 20 EMA if you scalp. The first is a concept I give you to help in scalping. Please use it. Don't just trust your eyeballs. Watch the relationship between the 2 MA's, their relationship to price and the distance they are from each other and from price. They tell a story about the trend and you generally want to be scalping the trend. They will give you some confidence if you feel a bit disoriented one day while scalping. If you scalp counter trend then you better be nimble as jack on your feet and don't take much. Grab what it gives you and move on. Scalping WITH trend produces much more high probability, and safe scalps. To Learn Classical Tape Reading then read and study: 1) Tom Williams (The Undeclared Secrets that Drive the Stock Market on.. the net as a pdf or buy his book Master the Market..you don't need the VSA software. Just learn the concepts) 2) Gann (the Truth of the Stock Market Tape..can be gotton at libraries) 3) Tape Reading for the 21st Century by Cliff Drokes..buy directly from his website as Amazon will charge you an arm and a leg. Cliff has it for under 20.00) 4) Brooks books for a view on what I would call classical tape reading bar by bar (thats not pub by pub for you UK people) using candlesticks. Of course, his books also to learn great scalping techiques. He also has a website ..brookspriceaction I believe it is. 5) Rollo Tape and other books by same author 6) Of course, the Livermore Remin. book is a great read and worth reading multiple times 8) ARMS Equivolume for some concepts on Volume. I think there is a ARMS website with some free downloads. One download is called Armsbookwcontents.pdf. I don't remember the site. If you can't find it with google send me a private message and I will help. 8) Finally don't forget Taylor. His book can be found at Traders press but I also like the pdf version (can be bought at Traders press and much cleaner than the free scanned version floating around on the net) and use the free PDF-Viewer program (google download and install) to mark it up and make notes on my digital copy. My hard copy is falling apart after so many years of reading and marking. All of the above are worth studing to learn the art of tape reading from a chart as opposed to tape reading on the DOM or time and sales..etc. These concepts propounded in these books will help you tremendously in developing a skill for tape reading from a chart which will in turn help you pick correct entries for Taylor trading. If you pick wrong entries for Taylor trading you will be forced to go through big drawdowns. If you get the day of the cycle wrong you won't make as much money as you could have made but Taylor will still work for you. I just can't stand big drawdowns. I do not like the pain. I grovel over a substancial loss.. paper or real. I hate losses.. paper or real. I know I have to accept them but STILL I do not like them and try my hardest to have as few as I can but when necessary I will quickly take a small loss knowing I can always get back in. And small losses don't eat at me. I have had my share of big losses in my journey and they eat at me for days and weeks on end. Tape reading from charts is a skill that takes time to develop. Give yourself 2 to 3 years to practice it well. But, you need the basic concepts planted in your brain. The books I just mentioned will give you those concepts. You have to plant them in your own brain. Nobody else can, or will, do that for you. Once they are planted there, and you have practiced them long enough, they will become second nature..like riding a bicyle. You will not have to think about every concept. Your brain will drive the car and do that for you. But that will take a few years to develop IF you work hard at it. But, the payoff is worth the effort. One more thing. Pick one or two things to trade and learn those instruments well. Do not jump around from market to market. Pick one or two as you plant the conepts in your brain and practice them. Why? Your brain will automatically learn the style of movements in those markets and will begin to correlate the concepts you are learning and apply them in that particular market. If at first, while learning the concepts, you jump from market to market it will take you much longer to learn how to apply them. After a few years you will be able to apply them in most any market. Spend alot of screen time just watching your one or two markets with nothing but 5 minute chart and the two moving averages, with volume. Please overcome any "I don't need volume to trade mindset"..Alot of that is out there on forums but please just think about it. Volume represents money..big money. Why would you want to ignore that element in your trading? Don't try to trade at first. Just get the screen time in. Hours and hours. Days and days. You are training your brain to pick out the patterns of that particular market. Then, when you begin to apply the concepts you have been studying you won't have to be conciously trying to decide if this move will continue or not. Your brain will let you know the probabilities. Get alot of just screen time in. If you work a regular job just record the sessions and watch them on weekends over and over...not even trying to apply watch you are learning. That will come later. You are just training your brain to pick out and read the movements of one or two instruments. Later you will apply what you are learning on a sim and then after that live Look guys if I can do it most anyone can. I didn't finish college. I read alot but but am not that smart. Really. Just your average bloke as you people in the UK might say. Trade well, see you around.
  37. 1 point
    jaaks

    Why Do More Than 90% of Traders Lose?

    Traders lose primarily because the primitive part of the brain is wired to avoid loss and the primitive brain makes all the decisions. Once we incur a loss trading, we try to recoup the loss. This usually means riding the loss down to greater losses until the pain gets too great. Then we bail at a huge loss, with a lot of emotional pain. This loss is burned in our memory and subconsciously we we start trying to get the money we lost back. Let's be clear. This is occurring subconsciously. You are not aware it is happening. That is why you repeat the same behaviors, and lose over and over again even thought your higher brain know it is wrong. By the way, the higher brain will think of sort of excuses to justify the primitive brains actions. None of which are true. How do you counter this strong, unconscious force? First you need a plan. The first part of the the plan is cash management. You need goals based on the type of trading you are doing. You need strict loss stops above all, how much money you are willing to lose for the type of trading your are doing and if you hit it, you are DONE! The same go for profits. Once you reach you profit goal, never, never lose it. You can keep riding the the profit train in the market let's you but if it reverses and returns to your min profit level, you are OUT! Once you have experience in the market, you can alter the latter part by taking partial profits and increasing your position size for really obscene profits but never, never violate your daily loss rule. Never. Keep a log and study it. You will find the best ratio of win to lost based on your trading style. Why is the stop amount so important other than the obvious? Because starting out, you are likely going have more losing trades than winners. But you can still make money: Say you set a stop at $100 and it cost $2.00per buy and sell and the slippage is $.01/share and you profit goal is 4 times your loss amt. This means you could lose 3 times for every win. A 75% loss rate in trades. After 3 losses, you will have lost $312 + the slippage. That amount is based on the number of shares. Let's say it is 300 shares. so the slippage is $3. So your total loss is $315. The next trade in profitable, so you gain $396. You have profit of $81. If you do this every day, your profit is $405/wk. Couldn't live on this amount in America, but by increasing the amount, you can get to the point you could. But the best way is getting a win / loss ratio greater than one. Then you really make money. The only way to do this is accumulating trading time. If you could get to 3 wins for every loss, then your gain per day is 873 or $4365/wk. You could live on that! Note: this would be a very good winning ratio and depends on the stocks you trade and the type of trader you are. The fist part of your plan is cash management. The next is a plan of when to buy, when to sell, when to take profit, when to increase your position size. Is there one better than another? Yes, depending on the type of trader you are and the market. Also different plans are needed in different market phases. But every plan fails if you don't relentlessly stick to it. Never vary, never vary, never vary. You can alter your plan when you are not trading, but while you are trading, sick to it. Is there a fool proof trading method? No. If there was, that method would soon get all the profit in the market and everyone would use it, resulting in it's failure as the rules would now have changed. Anyway, if you had a system, would you let anyone know about it? Not likely! At best, you could come up with something that work for the market conditions at that moment but would fail when the conditions change. "The market is always the same, the market is aways changing." There are plenty of adaptive black box systems that supposedly are using fuzzy logic and neural programming. From what I know, their ratio is 35% winners, 65% losers. And they make money hand over fist because they have strict rules and they never vary from them.
  38. 1 point
    TimRacette

    Trading for a Living

    I agree with cuttshot. Once you have a sizable account I find it necessary to remove all profits for the week from your trading account. Take physical delivery of that money and go cash it at the bank, touch it, hold it in your hand, and then deposit it into your check, savings, and investment accounts. I think this process is important because it makes what we are doing tangible and real. Perhaps its mostly for psychological purposes, but if you leave the profits in your account, they are "at risk" of the market. Removing them each week keeps it structured more as a business.
  39. 1 point
    Mysticforex

    Joke of The Day!

    How many Psychiatrists does it take to change a light bulb?................... One. But the light bulb has to really want to change.
  40. 1 point
    GlassOnion

    Joke of The Day!

    Easily the best joke of the decade A young man moved into a new apartment of his own and went to the lobby to put his name on his mailbox. While there, an attractive young lady came out of the apartment next to the mailboxes, wearing a robe. The boy smiled at the young woman and she started a conversation with him. As they talked, her robe slipped open, and it was obvious that she had nothing else on. The poor kid broke into a sweat trying to maintain eye contact. After a few minutes, she placed her hand on his arm and said, "Let's go to my apartment, I hear someone coming." He followed her into her apartment; she closed the door and leaned against it, allowing her robe to fall off completely. Now nude, she purred at him, "What would you say is my best feature?" Flustered and embarrassed, he finally squeaked, "It's got to be your ears." Astounded, and a little hurt she asked, "My ears? Look at these breasts; they are full and 100% natural. I work out every day and my butt is firm and solid. Look at my skin - no blemishes anywhere. How can you think that the best part of my body is my ears?" Clearing his throat, he stammered .... "Outside, when you said you heard someone coming.... that was me." __________________
  41. 1 point
    Mysticforex

    38 Steps to Becoming a Trader

    Hi winchie, You don't mention what type of trader you are, or plan to become. There are many good books out there. For technical analysis, I keep a copy of "Technical Analysis of Stock Trends" by Edwards and Magee on my desk. It's not a read thru kind of book, but a great reference book. Although the word "Stock" is in the tittle, TA is TA, and can be applied to anything you can put on a chart. From there you can look for something more subject specific, VSA, Candlesticks, etc. For Motivation and Psychology, I like, "Market Wizards", "Trading in The Zone", and Millionaire Traders". Surely others will chime in with their thoughts.
  42. 1 point
    MightyMouse

    38 Steps to Becoming a Trader

    Step 39 is when Shrek and Feona have a family and live happily ever after
  43. 1 point
    To become a full time traders, it will take years. Full time trader is smiliar to becoming a lawyer, Doctors, etc. The problem is many people believe day trading es is "get rich quick." If it takes 5 yrs to become a doctor, it will take 5 yrs to become a full time trader. I have no clue why people believe they can become a full time trader less than 1 yr. If that is true, why does it take a long time to become a doctor, lawyer, etc. According to the Gov report, 97% of the people lose trading in the futures market. One of the reason they lose is, they failed to understand trading futures involves substantial risk and only risk capital should be used. All brokerages and few trading school websites have those risk disclaimer. But for some reason, most people FAILED or ignore the risk disclaimer. For those who are a successful full time traders took them yrs to get there. Plus, they fully understood that trading es is NOT A GET RICH QUICK and trading futures involves SUBSTANTIAL RISK!!!!!! hope this help
  44. 1 point
    wind_

    Best Forex Broker?

    Check out Dukascopy (Forex trading, ECN Broker, Managed accounts, Swiss FX trading platform). They are ECN forex broker located in Swiss. Their spread is very tight, and recently they lowered their min. lot size to 1,000 (micro lot).
  45. 1 point
    thalestrader

    Taylor Trading Technique

    I agree. I've been trading TTT for fair amount of time. I have always found that most folks who fail to understand Taylor fail largely because they are fixated on the cycle, rather than on how Taylor uses where price is in relation to Support and Resistance. For example, I have rarely, if ever, read anyone here mention the "objective Point," a concept Taylor uses without which you will not succeed with Taylor's method, at least not as Taylor himself understood his own teachings. It is precisely this failure to appreciate Taylor's understanding of trading price action that leads folks to assume that the cycle needs repeatedly to be "re-set" or "adjusted" as George Angell famously (or infamously) suggested is necessary. If one were instead to view the cycle not as a set of strict trading rules, but rather as Taylor intended it, i.e. as a critical apparatus through which to view and interpret price action around significant support and resistance levels, i.e. Taylor's objective points, then one would also no doubt understand that for Taylor it is not nearly so simple as buying on Buy Day, selling on Selling Day, and shorting on Short Sale Day. Indeed, a close reading of Taylor will reveal that Taylor clearly (insofar as he can be accused of clarity at all) taught that the trader will at times buy on a Short Sale day and Sell Short on a Buy Day, but unlike George Angell and more than a few forum posters, both here at TL and elsewhere, those circumstances do not override the trading cycle. For example, let me quote Taylor concerning just such circumstances: 1) "In the case of a Higher Buying Day Low, the stock or future shows support causing a rally and a strong close on the Short Sale Day - the decline from this rally, next day, on the Buying Day, fails to sell down to the previous low - the Short Sale Day Low - this rally on the Short Sale day is an indication of a Higher Buy Day Bottom" and 2) "A Short Sale put out at the High of a Buying Day made FIRSTon the penetration of the Short Sale Day High, should be covered on the reaction ... for short selling on the Buying Day High made FIRST is generally a weak short sale." To really benefit from Taylor's method, one needs to see that the cycle, in and of itself, is useless without an accute awareness of price - especially where price is in relation to the open, and more importantly, where price is in relation to immediately prior highs and prior lows and previous closes. After all, what does Taylor keep in his book but a record of PRICE high, PRICE low, and the closing PRICE, and whether PRICE made its high or low first. The primary data from which all else in his Book (meaning the hand written Book he kept for trading and not the book he published about his method) consists of (Surprise! Surpise!) volume, opening price, high price, low price, and closing price. As is the case with all indicators, methods, systems, etc. anything that may be useful to making trading decisions will be derived from price. The true value and genius of Taylor's method, properly applied, is that it focuses the trader on specific price levels and price action, i.e. how price behaves around those levels, and how to anticipate in which direction the path of least resistance lay. As an aside, when Ed Dobson chose to publish Taylor's method, he did no one anywhere any favors by not only publishing Angell's and Raschke's interpretations of the method in the same volume, but then he went farther by suggesting in the publisher's forward that readers skip reading Taylor first, if not altogether, and simply read Angell's and Raschke's essays! What a mistake! This is, no doubt, one reason why most traders who approach Taylor become enamored of the trading cycle, and ignore price action, support and resistance, completly ignoring Taylor's objective points, as Angell in particular focuses squarely on the trading cycle in his essay on Taylor's method. Of course, another reason so many focus on the cycle and not the whole of Taylor's discussion on trading price action is that traders always want the easy money. How nice would it be if it really were so simple as buying on a buy day, holding overnight and selling soon after the open on the selling day for a nice profit, and then go short on the short sale day, cover at the close, again for a nice profit, and then start it all over again the next day by again going long on the subsequent buy day! If only trading were that easy! Angell was the one who first suggested that cycles need to be shifted from time to time. Let us all remember that Angell was selling a primitive computer software program using the Taylor method (dubbed LSS by Angell) and as Taylor's method is a discretionary method, Angell's project to automate trading signals from Taylor necessarily broke down. Angell could only make his program marginally salable by allowing the program to periodically re-set its cycle. The Book Method, you see, is meant for human intelligence, not artificial intelligence. As a further aside, anyone interested can quickly verify that Angell was fined by the CFTC/NFA (http://www.cftc.gov/opa/enf02/opa4628-02.htm) for his sale of and claims made on behalf of his LSS method and his computerized trading system. Why anyone would depend upon an essay that was originally intended as a piece of sales literature for what amounted to a faulty and fraudulent computer trading system scheme for his or her understanding of Taylor's (a real trader, by the way) method is beyond me. But those who insist that the cycle is anything other than a three day affair, or that it otherwise is in constant need of periodic adjustment is doing preciely that - interpreting Taylor's Trading Method through the lens of a fraud and a propagandist. In the end, it is always all about price. If its not about price, then it is about fear, greed, and EGO. Best Wishes, Thales
  46. 1 point
    In this post, I explained to the OP that following your system when things are not looking good is easier said than done sometimes and thought I'd explain further. Today (Dec 12) was one of those days where if I told you the end result of my P&L you might say, nice day. Ending P&L: $779.89/ct after commissions Not the greatest, but acceptable. Now, allow me to take you through how this day progressed and you can see why it's easier said than done to follow your system 100% and not lose faith. I am currently focusing on 3 markets to trade - ES, EC/6E and ZN. The main reason being that I am trying to be more particular in my setups and instead of forcing on the ES only, I find it easier to be patient using 3 markets. ES trades for Dec 12: +1.25, -2.25, -2, -2, -1.5, -1.75, -1.5, +5.75 = -4.00 on Day EC trades for Dec 12: -13, -12, +26, -9, -9, +6, +36 = +25 on Day ZN trades for Dec 12: +21, -4, +19, +10 = +46 on Day As you can see, not the easiest path to get from point A to point B. We know that the shortest distance between 2 points is a straight line and while it's much easier having a day where you start at 0.00 to +1,000 with no losses, that's not entirely realistic IMO. But if you were to look at starting at 0.00 and ending at $779.89, it'd be hard to argue that was a bad day. I posted this b/c in the other thread the OP is showing some solid faith in his system and following it. Once you know that your system makes money, then it's a little easier to do this. Of course you need to get there, but once there, you can do it. In the end this business is first about knowing that your system makes money over time and then doing it while minimizing emotional impact. I still get frustrated at times but days like today remind me of how important it is to keep doing it. I had no idea going into the day that the ES would be so rough today. I had no idea that the EC would make money, but only after a few losses. And I had no idea that the ZN would be like taking candy from a baby. And I have no idea what tomorrow will hold. I just have the faith that I can do the job and follow the plan. As soon as I stray from that, then I am subject to P&L fluctuations not planned for.
  47. 1 point
    Soultrader

    IB Range Indicator for CQG

    A simple study for CQG plotting the 60 minute (initial balance) high/low. This works only on a day session chart. Once imported and applied to a chart, right click on the two lines > modify > and change the line to dash. Screenshot is attached. Enjoy! IB Range.pac
  48. 1 point
    atto

    Trading The Wyckoff Way

    In the Hinges thread, I posted a live trade and elaborated on my exit methodology. To keep that topic on topic and to allow us to continue investigating exits and scale-outs, I thought it would be a good idea to start a new thread. I'll cover my personal exit methodology seen though Wyckoff ideas, as well as the logical rationale behind it. That said, I welcome all feedback and supporting/opposing opinions. My current trading methodology involves position adds and scale-outs. My reasoning has roots in wagering ideologies such as the Kelly criterion. The idea is simple: Bet more when you have greater odds. Relating to trading, you want the most exposure when your edge is greatest; similarly, you want less exposure when your edge is least (and ideally, no exposure when you have no edge). This makes logical sense, but many traders (myself included for a while) failed to see this. Trading is a game of making money, not proving yourself correct. I disagree with the "A good exit is another entry" camp, because I can't say that my edge is always the same. Yes, if you're able to nail moves completely, then keep your all-in / all-out approach. I personally can't, and don't currently know of any trader who can. Let's examine when a trading edge changes. Let's say you enter with a long setup (and many are discussed in this forum), and price moves in your direction but fails to break through a possible resistance area. Couldn't we argue that the new sellers, by confirming resistance, have taken (at least some of) your bullish edge away? This would be a good area to take some position off, because buying pressure is (momentarily) outmatched by selling pressure. I find volume especially important in these areas, because it can help you gauge the interest of the bulls and bears. Price stalled; did: a) sellers sweep in, or b) buyers simply take a break? If you see a rise of volume on the rejection, start looking for the door. What if price did not stall at possible resistance? Then I see no reason to lighten the position. The buyers have been winning, and sellers didn't step in as they did before. In fact, I have position adding setups based on moves like this. Remember, price moves in waves (not bars) and is fractal. The setup you took on a 1m chart could parlay into a 5m setup. Always pay attention to the market on a greater scale. My most reliable and accurate way to exit are climaxes. Here's how I define a climax: A rise in momentium (volatility), along with: A rise in volume Then, a contraction of momentum / volatility (or, a rejection of price) High volume does not mean there's a climax. In fact, some of the biggest moves are on high volume. It's the rejection / stall you're looking for. High volume gives you a head's up that there's a lot of interest. Once you spend screen time watching climaxes, you can catch them pretty quickly. Frequently, you'll see a quick decay of volume. This generally means that buying pressure has lessened, but sellers have not taken over. Many times, this is the making of a pullback before a continuation. If, however, you see volume gaining on the pullback, you might be looking at a reversal (or a pullback on a larger scale). It's not volume you're interested in directly, but volume's effect on price. You'll also see times when volume does not spike before the exhaustion, but price fails to break through a support/resistance level. Many times, price will try more than once, but new buyers/sellers are simply not interested. This is another good scale out opportunity, because the lack of buying pressure is important. Price could likely continue, but our edge not as much as it was when we had buying pressure on our side. So far, I've talked about exits that are pretty close to the extremes. Unfortunately, not ever price action move ends so cleanly with a climax or S/R confirmation. This is where stop management comes into play. To begin with, I use very small stops initially (so importantly, am willing to re-enter if my entry was not clean). Additionally, there's no reason to take a full stop if price is not confirming your entry premise. This is important. I am not saying to wait for the trade to be proven wrong. Rather, get out if you're not proven right. The Phantom of the Pits has some wise words on this topic. So, we're in a profitable trade, and need to manage stops. My first goal is to make the trade riskless (move the stop to break even). This has many psychological and $ implications. Yes, at times, you can get shaken out for break even, and zoom!.. price shoots off. You must be willing for this to happen, and often, re-enter quickly without chasing a trade. I make the trade riskless as soon as price confirms my entry premise. This often involves a x point move, or a breaking of previous S/R. From there, I manually trail stops as price keeps breaking past S/R levels, or establishes new ones. Example: a bull run, and then congestion. I will set stops under the congestion. The more contracts you trade, the more scale-outs you can have, making your trade longer and longer (if this is wanted). As a rule of thumb, the longer term the trade is, the less tight you need to keep your stops. On trend days, to catch the entire move, you will need to allow for pullbacks. In action, I'm frequently scaling out on pullbacks, and then adding to my position as the trend resumes. This is a work in progress, so please feel free to add to my thoughts. My other posts on exits: Live trade exit discussion, the benefits of scaling out. A couple of you have mentioned to me that you like examples (helps solidify the concept). Please understand that this is simply one example, and does not represent the concept in entirety.
  49. 1 point
    DbPhoenix

    Edge VS Mentality

    To all traders who are reading this thread and who are having difficulties: If you do not have evidence of a consistently profitable trading strategy, then your problem is not "psychology". It is not "discipline". It is not ego or greed or fear. Your problem is that you don't have a consistently profitable trading strategy. Until you do, you can be mental health poster child with the strictest discipline on the planet and you won't be profitable. You have to have a consistently profitable trading strategy. Cranking up your software and logging in to your data feed, then waiting for the open to "see if something is going to happen" is not a trading strategy (or at least not one which is likely to be consistently profitable). Going short because "buying seems exhausted", then going long because "selling seems exhausted" or because the "big boys" seem to be "stepping up to the plate" is not a trading strategy. If you're trading and you don't know exactly what it is that you're looking for, then stop trading until you do. If you know exactly what it is that you're looking for but you don't what exactly what it is that you're going to do if and when you see it, then stop trading until you do. If you elect to view trading as a game, then don't be surprised at how much money you can lose and at how fast you can lose it. If instead you view trading as a business, then don't be surprised at the amount of time and effort required to make it a profitable one.
  50. 1 point
    Anonymous

    [VSA] Volume Spread Analysis Part I

    Welcome. There is more than one definition for No Demand. In the book the base definition is given as a narrow spread bar closing up with volume less than the previous two bars. The Trade guider definition, also in the book, is a narrow spread bar closing up on volume less than the previous two bars AND closing on the middle or low of its range. Joel Pozen would define a No Demand as simply any bar closing up with volume less than the previous two bars. Or a bar closing equal, on volume less than the previous two bars with the previous bar higher than the bar two bars ago. Still others would include any buying bar (a bar with a higher high, but not a lower low than the previous bar) that has a narrower range and with volume less than the previous two bars is No Demand. If it closes either up from or equal to the previous bar. The underlying element is volume less than the previous two bars on equal or up closes. Note if the close is down and the we have a buying bar with the close on the low, the we have a hidden Upthrust in the form of No Demand. Sorry, I don't think I have really answered your question. I guess the reason is, the question you should be asking yourself is "How am I comfortable defining No Demand within the context of market behavior and amidst the various possible elements set forth?". I have added this beautiful pic from Monday. Note the two No Demands on the right of the Dotted line. The first one obviously closes on its high and has a smaller range than the previous bar. Plus it has volume less than the previous two bars and is a buying bar. The second one has a greater range than the previous bar and closes near its low. It has volume less than the previous two bars. It is a buying bar (positional relationship), but the low closes signals no real buying going on. This is a Hidden UpThrust in the form of No Demand. TG software would NOT pick up either of these.
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