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Technical Analysis
The technical discussion forum for traders.
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Hi Humble, I was (mis)fortunately enough to have received an injury that took me out of work the last 2 weeks. During those two weeks, I reviewed this entire thread as well as your trading log. I am curious how you are doing as well. There were many things I took away from re-reading this thread and saving over 1000 pages of notes. The biggest thing that I believe that attributed to success was Thales' warm-hearted compassion for self and others. He demonstrated this time after time even stating that he gets stopped out to the tick at least once a week and it is ok. He also consistently told other traders to take it easy, not beat up on self, and mistakes are actually ok. Here's why I believe self-compassion/trust is actually the missing piece so many of us have yet to find consistent success. When I take a loss (or miss a gain) I feel as if I did something wrong -> I then criticize/punish myself -> I then seek to avoid self-inflicted pain by searching for remedy -> I then change/modify trading plan, add indicators, or adopt a brand new strategy/guru in hopes that I now have the remedy to not have to experience the automatically generated self-punishment associated with a loss (or missed trade). This cycle continues ad infinitum and it is now many years later in the same game. I was listening to Mark Douglas' workshop last night and he said that the key to success is having the belief in your own consistency. Put it another way, do I believe that I can trust myself? If I beat myself up for an outcome that I have no control over than I cannot trust myself. My mind would do what it can to prevent this self-inflicted pain from re-occurring by not following a consistent trading plan (loss avoidance or chasing trades). The only way to become successful (consistently profitable trader) is to be able to maintain self-trust no matter what the next trade outcome is. To do that, I must completely reprogram what a loss/mistake means by thinking in probabilities. Mark Douglas has a recipe to help develop this sense of probability thinking in both of his books, which I'm sure you've already read. If not, the simple premise is, execute a simple trading plan that includes a quick scale out and become acclimated to the random nature of the results. Do this for 30 trades without change. The purpose of the quick scale out is to develop a sense of consistently taking money out of the market. We all started with very positive intentions of creating freedom for ourselves/family and yet it is this exact agenda that causes us to than make ourselves feel bad for not achieving such results. I am now giving up any egoic notion of what a consistently profitable trader means. I take no egoic pride in being consistently successful at swimming or walking. There is no reason for trading to be any other way. Any other way will lead to failure. Imagine how my walking will be if before take each step, I had to ask, is this the right step to take with the right foot? What if I trip? What if I step on sh**? I would not very much want to walk anywhere. With this all said, I am going to restart this thread with the above Mark Douglas exercise. I will also add the last post Thales posted here: This thread is nearly six years old. The nut of this approach is to enter the first higher high long or the first lower low short at a significant support or resistance level. If you are not seeing success, two areas of concern might be as follows: 1) You are taking entries all over the place, and not at price levels that have had prior and obvious significance. As price travels from significant support to significant resistance, it will make any number of "lower lows" along the way higher as normal pullbacks and consolidations take place. If you are going to trade in the middle of nowhere, trade for continuations rather than reversals. Ideally, you refrain from trading in the middle of nowhere completely. "Obvious" means even a nine year old looking at the chart can point to the last "Big High" or the last "Big Low." 2) You are cutting profits short. Most who try this approach have no problem with the corollary of cutting one's losses short, especially as the stop level is "built into" the "set-up." However, most also succumb to the too great temptation to cut profits short by moving the stop to breakeven before the re-test of the entry or a HH or LL in favor of the trade direction. The cure for (1) is to pick a sufficiently liquid market, do your homework before the market opens, identify those areas where you will be looking for a trade, and then only trade if and when price reaches one of those levels and only if price exhibits the behavior defined by the set-up. Trade one market until you get it. After you get it, most should probably still just stick with one instrument. The cure for (2), assuming you have entered based on the set-up conditions at an obvious S/R level of prior importance, is to set your stop loss, set a profit limit of at least 1 if not 2 times your risk, set an alert via text, email, sound, or what have you that will alert you to the trade being closed, leave the room, and do not come back until you've been stopped for a loss or limited out with your profit. The purpose of the simple trading exercise is to develop belief in self-trust and trading in probabilities: 1) Identify S/R zones on the weekly/Daily/4HR on EU, GU, EJ, AU. 2) Watch order flow as price enters these zones and take the first 15min 123 or limit PB if missed the trade. 3) Fixed targets, 1 at 1R (for Mark Douglas), 1 at next S/R and Fib confluence area based on swing of similar size. If 1R target is too small based on S/R or if it is less than 20 ticks, skip the trade. 4) Stop or targets, no trailing stops. 5) Before each trade, ask "Is this action I am about to take contributing to my belief in consistency and self-trust?" If it's a no, than don't take the trade! I will be using a $100 forex.com account, assuming 2tick spreads, betting 5% per trade. I will take 30 trades before any adjustments. My hours of operation will be 8am EST to 11:30am EST and 7pm EST to 9pm EST 5 days a week. I will also keep a weekly review of my progress with the following questions: How did I do this week with respect to developing belief to consistency and self trust? How is my trading plan developing? Have I stuck to my plan or did I deviate? What beliefs contributed to such actions? How was this week compared to last week? How many ticks/R units gained or lost this week? What will I do to move forward into the next week? What steps can I take? How is my progress thus far? (Scale of -10 to +10) Best, J -
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By HFblogNews · Posted
Date : 20th August 2019. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20th August 2019. FX News Today * Trade talk hopes and expectations of further stimulus measures kept stock markets underpinned during the Asian session. * Treasury yields fell back as hopes of fiscal easing were scaled back somewhat. * The US administration denied plans to cut payroll taxes to support growth and Germany’s reported contingency plan for a fiscal package in case of a deep recession, are clearly not the central scenario for now. * The 10-year rate is down 1.5 bp at 1.591%, JGB yields dipped -0.1 bp to -0.241%. * US President Trump called on the Fed to cut rates by “at least 100 basis points“. Fed’s Rosengren meanwhile pushed back against further rate cuts, saying that he is not convinced that slowing trade and global growth will significantly dent the economy. * Comments from US Commerce Secretary Ross that the US will delay restrictions imposed on some of Huawei’s business operations helped to underpin sentiment, although. * RBA Minutes: The minutes to the early-August RBA policy meeting were released without surprises, affirming its wait-and-see-easing-bias stance while repeating its view that the weaker currency will help exports and tourism. * Italian BTPs are underperforming this morning, ahead of PM Conte’s showdown in the Senate, although it seems Salvini’s attempt at a power grab may be backfiring as his coalition partner is trying to form an alliance with opposition parties. * Topix and Nikkei are currently up 0.7% and 0.5% respectively. The Hang Seng is up 0.09% but the Shanghai Comp down 0.01%. * European stock futures are slightly higher, as are US futures after a largely positive session in Asia. * The WTI future is trading at USD 56.30 per barrel. Charts of the Day Technician’s Corner * The Australian dollar has traded firmer and, to a lesser extent, the New Zealand buck. AUDUSD printed a 5-day high, at 0.6795, as did AUDJPY, at 72.36. Among the other main currencies, there has remained a lack of directional impulse. EURUSD has remained settled in the upper 1.1000s, holding below 1.1100, and USDJPY has become anchored around 106.50. The Dollar hasn’t been much affected by US President Trump’s call for the Fed to cut rates by “at least 100 basis points”. Overall investor sentiment is much less frayed that it was last week, with expectations for stimulus in major economies, along with Trump’s partial climbdown in his trade war with China, assuaging recession fears. Main Macro Events Today * Manufacturing Sales (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Manufacturing sales are anticipated to grow 2.0% in June after a 1.6% rebound in shipment values was revealed during May and following a 0.4% decline in April. The surge in transport equipment sales is consistent with the improving economy and as such fits with the BoC’s overall view that the economy is improving after temporary weakness in Q4/Q1. Support and Resistance levels Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. -
By FXTechstrategyT · Posted
GBPUSD Continues To Faces Corrective Recovery Risk GBPUSD continues to face corrective recovery risk as it eyes further bullishness. Support comes in at 1.2100 with a turn below that level shifting focus to the 1.2050 level. Further down, support resides at the 1.2000 level where a break will turn attention to the 1.1950 level. Further down, support lies at the 1.1900 level. On the upside, resistance stands at the 1.2200 with a turn above here allowing for additional strength to build up towards the 1.2250 level. Further out, resistance stands at the 1.2300 level followed by the 1.2350 level. On the whole, GBPUSD retains its corrective upside pressure -
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