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Market Wizard
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About firewalker

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    behavioural finance

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  1. "...a good trader should be succesful in any condition not just one." Well I guess you can say that, but how many of us are that good that they can trade anything the market throws at them? I know I can't. If I see price making higher lows and lower highs, converging into a point, I stay out. There's no point trying to trade a range that's becoming ever smaller and where the size of your stop does not warrant the potential for profit. I think what differentiates good traders from average traders is that they sense what condition the market is in and they have the patience to sit it out, until a better opportunity comes around the corner.
  2. I guess it depends on what you want out of it. What market circumstances do you prefer? If you know you'll have trouble in huge drops that show very little pressure from the buying side, you can decide to stay out and wait for other conditions. Or you can adjust. I think if you're going to have very rigid rules, you're bound to experience problems in one or another market condition...
  3. ... so after spending a good month's worth of trading ranging in a +/- 50 point zone, with most important resistance around 1810, we finally broke above that last week. The classic x-mas rally? I don't know, but given the time we spent pushing to break R, it's not that surprising to see the breakout turn into a straight move upwards like this one. I've found the markets particularly hard to trade intraday, so have not been that active. Also, if you bought the BO, I see no reason to exit it (yet), if you are comfortable with holding positions overnight, in this case, already a week. So where is it going to lead to? Based on the wide congestion area from August last year, I really thought we would see some sort of pullback happening, and I thought the sideways PA from November and December was distribution going on. But how can you ever know for sure? So I looked back at that congestion on the daily chart, and it looks like we have reached +/- the top of that now at 1875.
  4. Hi, it's by no means "my room" It's a public chatroom, I don't visit each day, there are plenty of other very knowledgeable traders in there. The chatroom might not always be that active, but best chances of finding someone is when you visit around US open. Greetz,
  5. 'The power' seems gone quite quickly these days. I've found it quite hard to find more than one trading opportunity per day lately. If you missed the first hour trade, you're basically faced with a market that's completely flat or stuck. Today was almost a copycat version of yesterday's price action. We seem to be struggling to find new traders interested in these levels. The S&P tried to break above 1110 yesterday and today, which was/is a serious resistance level, but each attempt gets faded quickly. My major levels on the NQ are still the same: 1772-75 area and 1810-1812 as the top. In between there we have several minor levels, of which I considered 1792-95 as intermediate support. I'm not sure what's going on, but it almost feels like traders are taking a very early end-of-year-holiday!
  6. Yesterday we still went up further, but we reached an interesting point imo. We have a big area spanning from 1810-1815 to 1870-1875, the big range that we were stuck in during July 2008. It looks like we reached the lower end of the range, and I'd be surprised if we can get to the opposite side so easily. That is, assuming those areas are still as valid today as they were in the past...
  7. My entries might have been 1pt different from yours, but I did exactly the same Scaled out three times (purple dots on chart).
  8. I think that's a bit harsh towards NAVEEVIa. I didn't trade yesterday but after reviewing the day, I don't see 1680-1682 as thàt important like you & dbphoenix do. Some S/R levels last longer than others, some or more relevant than others, but it's not because somebody doesn't see it that cleary, whole their fundamental ideas about S/R are wrong. Otherwise I should join NAVEEVIa and go back to S/R 101 With regards to yesterday, for me 1700 was the midpoint of the range 1688-1690 and 1707-1710. So that part makes sense, since it was all a continuation of what I said on Tuesday. The FOMC whippy action doesn't make it any easier, but I'm looking rougly at 1650 as major S, a range of 1660 to 1685 with 1672 midpoint...
  9. For once I completely agree Unlikely to come into play today, but my idea of levels ("zones") lower than that: 1585-1587 1602-1605 1628-1632
  10. I don't believe having a climax is a necessary condition to end a certain move. Some trends just fade out and when the last man carrying the bucket realizes there is no one else left to hand it over to, price can suddenly and sharply collapse. I agree that it's not because price turns at a specific level this means it's "the" top, it could be "a" top.
  11. Hi traderGeorge, you sound a lot like someone I used to know some time ago. I believe that person was... me! Studying the material and putting in hours of screentime, it's all a necessary but not sufficient condition. What you need, and from what you're telling looks like you lack, is a well thought out trading plan which tells you what to do when you see it. I read in your post that "I was this and I thought...", or "I saw ... and I interpreted it as...". But most of the thinking and interpreting should've been done before the market opened, not during the day when the markets are open. Most likely you are not going to think straight when you see all that action happening and you'll be thinking "how can I get in", "why am I missing out on such a huge move"... A neutral position clears the mind, but unless you know exactly what you are looking for, you're not really better off than just trying to feel your way through the day. Also, you're likely to experience many times that what appears to be a good decision in real time, is a bad one in hindsight or vice versa. That's where testing a strategy comes into play. You can't afford to think about "should I put this trade on, or is the stop too wide?" during the day. All that needs to be thought out, preferably written down, before the market opens. For your final question, determining when a trend has reversed, that's a tough one. What looks like a trend reversal on a smaller timeframe, might only be a trend retracement on a bigger timeframe. But usually by the time it's clear that the trend has 'reversed' you will be far too late to take an entry, or price will be ready to pullback. There is no way for "a knowledgeable trader" to know that it is a "true" trend reversal until after the fact. But you don't need to know per se. If you have a plan for trade entry, trade management and trade exits, you will be prepared to take profits of whatever the market throws at you.
  12. Seems like the market is repeating itself Price, as expected, reacted at 1688 (strictly speaking it was 1687.75...), and although it might have been a bit cheeky to short before the trendline was broken, it did work out rather nicely with price returning to the midpoint.
  13. Yesterday we ended the week with two wide range days, and it's quite common for the market to take a breather the next day(s). Overnight so far we've been creeping towards the midpoint of what I consider 'the range': 1660-1690. If we open near where we are now, it could end up a choppy afternoon. So, unless there's a very clear signal to short 1675 or thereabouts, I'll probably wait to see if price can get to one of the extremes and take a trade from there.
  14. Blowing my own trumpet here, but when price exactly stops at 1660..., it's magic! The rest is for the CWS thread, because the amount of profitable points yesterday that I left on the table ... :doh: For me, again, nothing has changed since the levels I posted in the beginning of the week. Zones are on the chart, and the midpoints are something to keep in the back of your head. Below that, support is not that clear, but I'll be paying attention to 1650 possibly, but perhaps more important 1642-1645.
  15. I'm sorry if I sounded like I was criticizing your trading, I was not. I'll agree to disagree I didn't (and don't) see anything special about 1713 and yesterday's "poke" above 1710 was immediately rejected. Today we hit 1711 and price turned back like someone slammed it down the minute it tried to get higher. For me this doesn't mean that 1711 is an extreme, it means that price tried to get above the extreme (1710) and found no interest. A small difference in interpretation, but still a difference. 1700 was not an extreme for me, but again, we both made money out of today, so I don't see what the problem is... I just view things (slightly) different. Like yesterday, 1697 was a midpoint and you can how two hours after the open price went sideways on decreasing volume (springboard). After that we dropped below support, retraced (again on lower volume) towards 1688 (or within half a point) and confirmed previous S as R. Have a good weekend.
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