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  1. Hello everyone! I am an advanced trader, with many years of experience (about 15 years - 10 living exclusively from this) I am going to give you some tips that you must know: There are going to be many people who tell you that trade is easy, that with only crossiing a line with another one you will win a lot of money.... and that´s not true. No, Sir, reality is far away from that. Many people who start arrive here with the hope that someone "gives them" a free method, they watch youtube videos thinking that this will give them the "strategy" and in a few days they realize that it does not work for them - they lose money - and then They go looking for a new one ... and so on. YES, IT´S TRUE YOU EARN IN TRADING, A LOT. BUT THINK: for a few to win (10% + any BROKER) many others must lose (90% people). YOU MUST HAVE A MONEY MANAGMENT FORMULA ( you can email me) People study so many years to live on this, not because they are dumb, but to know what they do, when, and have absolute effectiveness. It´s very easy to get lost here: do not disperse, jumping from one to another strategy WILL NEVER give you money, it will only waste your time and make you nervous when trading. PEOPLE WHO CHANGE THEIR METHOD CONSTANTLY : LOOOOSE ALWAYS. If you have the knowledge to develop it, take your time and do it. Always try it first on DEMO for at least 2 weeks! If not: search to buy a solid strategy (no you tube videos pleassse ! Avoid losing money! ) This is like any business, it requires some capital to start (capital = money in the broker + solid made /purchased strategy) If you are lost: I RECOMMEND YOU NOT TO WASTE TIME IN YOUTUBE, JOIN PEOPLE WHO HAVE EXPERIENCE AND IF YOU ARE GOING TO BUY A METHOD ... PLEASE !!!! DO NOT BUY 10 BAD AND CHEAP METHODS, SAVE MONEY AND BUY ONLY 1 BUT EXCLUSIVE AND MUST ALLWAYS HAVE SUPPORT !!!!! Do not buy Signals! They never keep up with constant profits! One week will win and the next will lose. Nothing that does not depend absolutely on you will give you the money you are looking for. And if you do not have a strategy (made or purchased) do not even try PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE: DO NOT USE REAL MONEY! AT LEAST 2 WEEK DEMO FREE HELP HERE!!!!! IF YOU FOLLOW MY ADVICE YOU WILL BE PART OF THAT 10% WINNER, email me. Have a nice trading day
  2. Richard Wyckoff was a pioneer of technical analysis. While Dow contributed the theory that price moves in a series of trends and reactions, and Schabacker classified those movements into chart patterns, developed gap theory, and stressed the role of trader behavior in the development of patterns and support/resistance, Wyckoff contributed the study of the relationship between volume and price movement to detect imbalances between supply and demand, which in turn provided clues to direction and potential turning points. By also studying the dynamics of consolidations or horizontal movements, he was able to offer a complete market cycle of accumulation, mark-up, distribution, and mark-down, which was in large part the result of shifts in ownership between retail traders and professional money. Wyckoff sought to develop a comprehensive trading system which (a) focused on those markets and stocks that were “on the springboard” for significant moves, (b) initiated entries at those points which offered the highest probability of success, and © exited the positions at the most advantageous time, all with the least possible degree of risk. His favorite metaphor for the markets and market action was water: waves, currents, eddies, rapids, ebb and flow. He did not view the market as a battlefield nor traders as combatants. He counseled the trader to analyze the waves, determine the current, “go with the flow”, much like a sailor. He thus encouraged the trader to find his entry using smaller “waves”, then, as the current picked him up, ride the current through the larger waves to the natural culmination of the move, even to the extent of pressing one’s advantage, or “pyramiding”, as opposed to cutting profits short, or “scalping”. “Trading Wyckoff”, then, is more than just relating price and volume. It is a complete trading strategy, ranging from finding the most attractive opportunities through strategy development and trade management to the best moment to close the trade, all with the least possible degree of risk. Below are copies of Wyckoff's Studies in Tape Reading, which has been reformatted into The Day Trader's Bible and is as good a place to start as any, along with Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Jesse Livermore, a contemporary of Wyckoff's. We've also included a chapter from Wyckoff's original trading and investing course. This chapter consists of Wyckoff's analysis of an entire year of price action as it relates to the essential elements of Wyckoff's approach: volume, support, resistance, climactic activity, tests and retests, etc. . DTB, 1919.pdf RSO.pdf Wyckoff Analysis 1930-31.pdf
  3. Financial market participants new to the game of investing or trading should think carefully about whether they approach the subject matter focusing either on fundamental analysis or technical analysis or an integrated approach. Technical analysis is easy to define: it basically involves the study of past and present market prices in an attempt to forecast the direction of future prices. However, with fundamental analysis (in its traditional sense) the definition becomes a little blurry as one analyses whatever factors one expects to eventually have an impact on market prices. Therefore, for the purpose of this discussion, I would like to expand the definition to incorporate the analyses of underlying factors as well as how financial market participants interact with those factors (as implied by market prices), thinking more in terms of a “strategic” analysis. I would like to outline two reasons why an integrated approach is desirable, where fundamental analysis decides the broad strategy (direction and position size) and technical analysis the tactics (entries and exits). First: What do the world’s top traders such as George Soros, Bruce Kovner and Paul Tudor Jones have in common? Two answers are immediately apparent: they are all listed on the Forbes Billionaire List; and they all use an integrated approach. Second: central bankers. Judging by the reactions of the market to fundamental news announcements, one can argue that central bankers are one of the most important pieces of the puzzle. It is somewhat amusing that some traders who swear to be purely technical in their approach are the first to react to the release of such information. Central bankers most certainly do not use technical analysis in their decision making process, although the state of markets does enter the equation; however, most of their decision making does involve a specific type of “fundamentals” analysis, not necessarily the type taught in business school. Furthermore, given the fact that they do not necessarily have any more information at hand than what the public is able to obtain, the key question becomes how they actually string together all these bits of information to derive their decisions and news blabber. Thus, there is a clear advantage to be gained over one’s competitors by learning to think like a central banker instead of just being a reactionary market participant. In conclusion, why should one limit oneself to one or the other and treat this as a mutually exclusive choice if a balanced approach between technical analysis and some in depth strategic analysis of fundamentals clearly reaps much better results? --- Rene Riedel is a professional financial speculator and founder of Pulse Research, an independent macro-level fundamentals research and analysis company, geared specifically towards forex, bond, stock indices and commodities traders who are utilising technical analysis and are seeking an additional edge in their trading
  4. Trading is a business like any other. Treat it accordingly. It’s about the evaluation of risk for a potential trade. Everyone who has been involved in the financial market for a while will know to appreciate a trading plan. Market participants who have been hurt with losses regret not having had one from the first moment on. After all, it is more exciting to jump into the first trade and get the drill immediately. Imagine you were about to buy property. Wouldn’t you balance the pros and cons of the location, the buying price, or your monthly annuity? You certainly will not buy the first property that comes across you. Unfortunately this is precisely how beginners approach trading. The hurdles of opening a trading account and depositing some cash are far lower than, say, registering your own business. Henceforth, trading is not taken as seriously. When composing your trading plan, you have to understand most of all yourself. Why do you want to trade? What are the specific goals you are trying to achieve with trading? How much time during the day can you dedicate to it? Can you handle a loss of $50, $1,000, or $5,000 per trade? How would such a loss affect you? Do you prefer to harness large trends, or quick trades throughout the day? The next step is to find the right market and the right time frame. For example, I have chosen the ES for myself because I want to focus on one instrument and trade it well. My primary time frame is the 1 hour chart. Going further, you need to know your specific trading strategy. Create one that is as objective as possible because such will stand a higher chance to last throughout various market conditions. I have abandoned all indicators and focus merely on the price. This is what every market participant is seeing. Define where your stop-loss would be at and what the potential loss is if it gets hit. I want to make sure to quit the trade if the original reason for entry is no longer given. I take visible peaks or troughs to put the stop-loss at. With the help of the 1 hour time frame, I am able to detect significant support and resistance areas which help me to find an entry. Everyone will notice if a new high or low is taken out. Do not miss to test your tactics on paper before risking real money. Prepare a trading journal once you have collected some experience and want to get to know yourself better. Write down your emotions, your reasoning for each action made, and a lessons learned for upcoming trades. It seriously helps at becoming more objective in your trading decisions. You engage yourself with the decisions made and will be more alert of making mistakes in future.
  5. Hi, I'm trying to develop a strategy that switches between various securities. For example, suppose I want to buy jump back and forth between the SPY and TLT. Is this possible? For a random example, suppose I want the following (where SPY = Data1 and TLT = Data2): If c crosses above average(c, 10) then buy next bar at market; If c crosses below average(c, 10) then sell next bar at market and buy data2 next bar at market; Obviously this doesn't work in EasyLanguage, but I think it's clear what I want the strategy to do. Is there a way this can happen? Thanks for your help, Investor
  6. Social trading platforms are possibly one of the most exciting developments in recent years; in short, they mean that we’ve now got unprecedented access to the actions carried out by a huge number of other traders, and the result is that we can improve on our own successes like never before. Social media means that many people can work together on finding signals and working out a strategy, rather than doing everything yourself. As the saying goes; two heads are better than one. Part of the reason large investment companies can be so successful is that they have a lot of people working on positions and monitoring price actions and events. The more people you’ve got looking out for patterns and opportunities, the more chance you’ve got at making a successful trade. One of the major benefits of social platforms is that they are more trustworthy than a lot of advice that you’ll find on the internet; you can see exactly how people are trading themselves, and how successful they are. You don’t need to take someone’s word for something; you can see what they’re doing. When discussing the next big opportunity on a forum, you’ll be able to find out how well it turns out for other people. Many social outlets display top performing users, and you can actually copy their trades yourself. There are numerous social applications available, some of which will work with certain brokers and platforms, and some of which won’t. It’s important to do your research first, as there can be certain exclusions. If you want to use expert advisors for instance, you’re likely to need to choose a MetaTrader compatible one such as TraderConnect. eToro is the largest outlet, but it is not free, and only higher level subscriptions are compatible with MT4. Of course, it’s very important that social media is treated as a tool just like any other. Relying on others for all your signals and strategy is not a good idea, because what’s right for one person might not be right for another. Instead, you should incorporate social media into your own strategy, and use it as a method of finding more information than you’d normally be able to. It’s also a great way of learning new things, and is a place where you can ask questions too. If you’re looking for a way to increase productivity, this could be it.
  7. A stop that is not entered cannot be hit. Those nine words, while absolutely true, cost me a mountain of money back when I was a rosy-cheeked youngster who was about to set the trading world on fire and rip the market a new one. After numerous painful 'setbacks' - to put it diplomatically - I discovered another, much more profitable truth: taking small losses is the cost of doing business in the world of professional trading. I know what you're thinking: another 'cut losses short and let winners run' article...thanks Captain Obvious. I concur; money management and preservation of capital are the most boring topics in the trading universe. So I'll assume that anyone reading past this point uses stop loss orders and is mainly interested in how to optimize them. First, a quick clarification. The stops I'm discussing aren't the ones that some traders enter before a new trade is filled 'just in case'...just in case the power goes out or the internet/computer goes down before they can get their initial stop order in. I'm strictly speaking of initial and trailing stops and the most profitable spots to place them using price bars. The initial stop loss is entered as soon as you're executed on a new trade. If the trade goes against you, you're stopped out at that price and it's on to the next set up. If the trade works in your favor, the intial stop becomes a trailing stop and the price is moved along to protect profits. Bars, Swings and Trends If successive bars are making higher highs and higher lows, that's an upswing. If successive bars are making lower highs and lower lows, that's a downswing. When successive swings are compared, if they are in a pattern of higher highs and higher lows (or lower highs and lower lows), that is deemed an uptrend (downtrend). With those definitions out of the way, using price bars to set stops is pretty simple. In an uptrend, the market is making higher swing highs and higher swing lows. Within the upswings, the individual price bars themselves are typically up bars. The idea is to set the stop loss order under the lows of the up bars in an upswing, because if the pattern of up bars is broken, it's not going up any more. In a downtrend, the market is making lower swing highs and lower swing lows. Within the downswings, the individual price bars are typically down bars. The idea here is to set the stop loss order above the highs of the down bars in a downswing, for if the pattern of down bars is broken, it's not going down any more. Dropping Down Finally, we get to the part about saving ticks and increasing profits. Setting the initial stop order can't really be tweaked all that much. I hate to be the one to tell you, but you're always going to have a small percentage of your trades get stopped out by a tick or two and then reverse and go to target without you. It's one of those cost of doing business things and it's inescapable. You just have to set the initial stop order as illustrated above and take what comes.The good news is that once the position moves into profitability, there are tricks of the trade, so to speak, that will add to the bottom line. Dropping down to the next smallest time frame on your chart instantly increases profits by getting you out of your winning trades without leaving as much on the table. If you're trading off the 1 hour chart, click it down to 30-minutes. If you're a 5-minute bar player, down to 3-minute, and so on. The pattern of higher or lower swings will be broken sooner on the smaller time frame and save you a few ticks in getting out. This also allows you to ignore inside bars as far as moving your stop, without increasing your risk. Expanded Range I'd be remiss if I didn't touch on my experience with expanded range bars as they pertain to stops. Using whatever measure you'd like; be it an indicator like ATR (Average True Range) or a ruler held up to your screen; when you are in the midst of a profitable trade and trailing your stop along and a bar starts forming that is significantly larger than normal, tighten that stop. This is usually a sign that the move in your direction is over, at least temporarily, and you might as well take all you can rather than letting it come all the way back to your stop. You can always get back in.
  8. Traders that are new to the industry are too easily scammed into dubious trading products or subscriptions. So-called trading gurus permeate our society to exploit the starry-eyed eagerness of a trader trying to learn. It is marketers and their never-ending sales pitches like, "You need this system. This one will make you the star trader you’ve always dreamed of. The new and improved version is guaranteed to double your money instantly or you get your money back." Gossip tabloids exploit readers that crave sensational news. Did you hear the latest on Brad Pitt? The National Enquirer tells me so. What will your car salesman, who needs to achieve his quota for the month in order to pay for his new house, tell you? "You look successful. This car will represent you perfectly in your next business meeting." You try on clothes in a fashion boutique and ask the salesgirl whether it suits you, "Fits perfectly." Whatever you try on, it always fits perfectly. These people just want to sell you stuff! The sooner you understand it, the better. What will a politician tell his supporters? "If you want change, then vote for me. I will deliver change for you, my friend." We live in a capitalistic world where people will always inevitably seek to exploit the ignorance of others. The original intentions may be good, but trading products are often marketed in a way as to guarantee positive performance. A guru is under no obligation to disclose his profit and loss column to you or anyone. It is pathetic to hear traders complain how gurus are out to extract money from them. It is up to them to separate the wheat from the chaff and some unfortunately are horrible at separating fact from fiction until it is too late. Usually money is lost as a penalty for not being properly informed. There is a learning curve involved in this business of trading and struggling traders are repeatedly seeking a quick solution to their problem that typically requires months or mostly years to reach proficiency. Just because a trader can show proof that he can make money does not insinuate that he is also a good teacher, and vice versa. The very best thing to do is apply common sense while learning as much as you can (ideally with the help of a trusted mentor). Every trader is individual in his personality, so you need to find out what strategy, time frame, market, or position size suits you best. A mentor can only provide advice. You have to continuously test and improve while risking the least amount of money. This will increase your chances of emerging financially unscathed and start a profitable trading journey.
  9. While starting out as a trader, you have likely read most of the classic books on trading, technical analysis, money management, or psychology. You might have even executed a few trades with meager success. From a theoretical experience you are not a newbie but from a practical standpoint you still are. Being a trader is commonly associated with an erroneous picture of freedom. You may be drawn to the flexibility of lifestyle, not having a boss, and having geographic independence. That’s like saying you want to become a racing driver because of the high salaries and traveling around the world. But to be a good racing driver you need to love racing. Not everyone loves racing. Similarly, to be a good trader you need to love markets. Showing “passion” may be overrated for this business, but strong interest coupled with the right approach does correlate with performance. Committing to doing something brings with it the duty to do what is required. Someone who ponders about making $1 million per year with no boss, and getting out of a job which he hates, he is definitely looking at trading for the wrong reasons. Trading doesn’t work like that as it is not a consistent income. Furthermore, it is not a steady progression like most careers. Success (if it comes) is rather unpredictable, comparable to the evolution of an entrepreneur. You can have great periods and you can have dead periods. A great method can suddenly stop working after years of success, and you may have disasters where you lose a lot of money. If not pursued earnestly, trading can offer excitement for the time being and serve as a big dream of a glorious life in riches. In reality, chances of prosperity in this case are as likely as with playing the lottery. Those who claim they wish to be traders but are secretly unwilling to do the work, will never get there. As a mentor, I am honest and blunt to aspiring traders, just as the professor is to an aspiring medical doctor. They won’t be told that due to the hard work in their profession of healing it would be better done in a country where there are less medical regulations with worse tools and technology than you find in the West. If you kill a few poor patients along the way, it would not matter because you are unlikely to be sued or prevented from working further. That is not the discipline you want to see in someone. Becoming an independent trader must not be taken lightheartedly either. Education is of utmost importance in this business, and working with a competent trader can be easier than being self-taught. Those who are relentless in figuring out a methodology are more likely to succeed. If you find investigation, research, problem solving, and frequent setbacks tedious, you would be well advised to do something else. Regardless of assistance, you should be fairly comfortable with experimenting on your own because even a personal mentor can only go as far as showing you the path. A strategy still has to be based on your very own decisions to be able to trade with confidence. Start with a $10,000 account and trade part-time outside your normal working hours. Set maximum drawdown goals by losing not more than $3,000, for instance. The point of this is not to make money, but to learn trading with real money without taking excessive financial risks. If by the end of year one, you managed to make a profit without losing 30% of your starting capital at any point, then you have some potential. Take your time and put more emphasis on gradual growth with a sound strategy than sudden wealth. What remains to be said about the brutal reality is that the vast majority of retail traders fail even to break even over their trading careers; let alone make a living from it. Those that do, tend to have an unusual aptitude and passion for markets and trading. Therefore you are generally better advised to keep your job until you have figured out a time-tested strategy. Not being able to watch the market during regular trading hours is not an excuse.
  10. Hi, This follows from the RS- Internal thread. I have been able to code the classic divergences to a satisfactory level without a future looking formula. The peculiarity of this method is that it detects a divergence before the second consecutive peak/trough actually occurs on chart (anticipatory discovery). This eliminates the huge lag in decision making caused by waiting to confirm the second peak/trough. See this chart: Most codes that I've seen around either use a future looking formula like zig-zag and/or wait for the confirmation of second peak/trough. By the time the second consecutive pivot is confirmed, market has already moved away by few bars. In V-shaped pivots, the move is already over if one goes by the traditional way of comparing two peaks on prices vs. an oscillator. More charts: BTW, the 'advanced' word in title is more of a cliche; the strategy is actually basic (conceptual); i.e. mark opportunity when a stock seems to move lower while it's internal relative strength actually increases. I will be calling some signals live in this thread, so it will also serve the purpose of a journal, to improve the strategy.
  11. Sensationalist attention grabbing titles aside, I do have something to say. I see so many people searching for the holy grail of technical analysis. A technique that if applied properly, will lead to untold riches! Yet that which people are looking for is often right before them. However, blinded by all these methods:- Market profile, Elliott Wave, MACD, Super lightspeed multi timeframe sequential frequency stochastical kick F*****G ass indicator :o! they will usually miss the point. In the hands of a capable trader, a moving average can be applied profitably. A less than should we say brilliant trader, will likely lose whatever they try. This isn't to say that a trader doesn't need to "find a method that fits" as is often said. It's that to find a method that fits requires each one to be tested and applied with true professionalism and intent. Simple things that this entails:- 1- Formulate a method of technical analysis which looks at specific elements of the market. Make sure each item you add is there for a reason and keep things clear. 2- Know what is going on in the bigger picture of the market and at least have a basic understanding of the auction to help you identify the current conditions and therefore appropriately apply any strategy you may have. 3- Use your analysis to monitor the market and note down observations. Research your ideas for strategies to exploit certain aspects you see recurring time and time again. 4- Work out sensible risk:reward/position sizing for your strategy and monitor its performance over time with these conditions applied. 5- Work out a method of trade selection. When do you take a trade and when do you pass on it? If you don't, you may find you are constantly kicking yourself when you pass up great trades and are stuck in trades which suck and you knew at the time you shouldn't have entered. 6- Stick to your carefully considered plans!! If you don't, you have no way of telling whether the method works or not. Overall, people have to realise that there is no right and wrong in trading other than consistent p/l. In my experience, those who "make it" have a dedicated professional attitude rather than some uber method which just works.
  12. I am seeking thoughts and ideas for a system that is simple, can withstand the changing market conditions (including summer conditions), and one which can gain consistently. I ask not only for myself but for many who are in a similar position in these forums. I'm looking for something in which I can set pending orders, or place orders at a given time (due to working a full-time job). A breakout system comes to mind, but am interested in finding something during ranging markets as well. I would risk $1/pip per $1,000 (adjusting the lot size accordingly). Ideas for money management would be a big help too; I don't like anything less than 1:1 risk/reward. I've been studying what's out there the past year; I'm very familiar with the basics and beyond. Yet, I cannot settle on any system I'm comfortable with. I am also a MQL4 programmer and can program a system if it works and someone here is willing to share it (for anyone interested). Anyone have any idea for something that might be what I'm looking for? Please do not send affiliate links; I am looking for a system I can manually trade or one in which I can program on my own. Thank you to anyone who responds!
  13. Thia is really a related multi-point post. I would like to know what issues and solution Trade Station, strategy, traders have run into (and the resolutions) when moving from the simulated environment to the live environment. For those that have traded using Think or Swim and TS can you please respond as well (please make note of the platform). Background, I developed a strategy that I was happy with (at least as a initial Live version). So I started it up in TS and the orders were not being executed as they should have according to the strategy (19 bars dif... on a 5 minute chart). I'm still as at loss as to why it would perform differently in the simulated env (in using real time data versus Live env with real time data). But I am working through it with. Thanks to all.
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