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Found 7 results

  1. About 5 years ago, the Forex industry got a new trading method minimizing the human trader interaction with the trading platform, although until now it's still limited and not enough alone to process a Forex trading account, but it's valuable for many traders to perform their work or part of it. Since the launch of Expert Advisors capability on MT4 platforms, many developers and Forex expert traders have rushed to create their own expert advisors gathering their own trading experiences into their creations, some gave their expert advisors away for other traders for free, and most of them decided to sell them at a nominal price, although that nominal price is high for some newbies but the original and well preset expert advisors can easily compensate for it in a short period of time. Now, a huge number of expert advisors and Forex systems are available on the web, but which one could I use if I needed to?! Do I need to test every expert advisor on the web to choose among them?! Simply, although self testing is the most reliable method to verify an expert advisor, but it may be complicated and taking too much time to fully ensure the validity of an expert advisor, now there are alternative methods to do so, we are speaking now about live performance which is the best method to validate an expert advisor and bypasses the backtesting faults and missleading results. Here are the methods I have found they might be valuable to verify a live performance of an expert advisor: 1 - The next to self testing an expert advisor for verification, having an access to an investor account on MT4 for an old account using the expert advisor for a previous period of time is a great method to verify its live performance, some developers provide this option to the public for testing their ea before using it, like Forex Striker for example. 2 - Comes next, the Forex systems analysis websites, these provide free Forex systems live performance analysis services on which most Forex system developers depend to prove the validity and profitability of there inventions, like: Myfxbook (The most reliable) Mt4i (Moderately Reliab) MTROCKET (New and unreliable till now) 3 - Comes at the end, personal aids by individuals or groups that provide paid testing services and advices for Forex robots live performance and best settings with live statements, these are not common and few of them are available like EA Lab which is now strongly emerging as a dependable validation method for many new and old experienced Forex system developers like GPS Forex Robot and Fapturbo 2.0. Finally I ensure that unless you can't verify an expert advisor performance and determine its best settings by yourself, only one alternative method for verification is not enough to ensure its profitability, while combining live performance verification, backtesting and previous user reviews is the most reliable road-map to find out your target Expert Advisor. Best Profitable Wishes Adam Weil
  2. f there's one trading dilemma that tends to inspire the most heated discussions among professionals and novices alike, it would have to be the one dealing with the decision to trade "with the trend" or "against the trend". Countless books have been written on the subject, and although there are no definitive answers, I've decided to set the record straight in regards to the realities of these two approaches and the proper way to handle each. First of all, let's define these two approaches for greater clarity. For our purposes, we'll consider "trend following" any strategy looking to take advantage of a directional move in the context of an existing trend within the timeframe in question. This requires that we make sure that there is an existing trend and then looking for tradable patterns to take advantage of a continuation of said trend. Technical traders learn to recognize the parameters that define a trend, and then look to "cherry pick" among the healthiest trends available (Ref. Trading the Pristine Method® (TPM) and Advanced Technical Strategies (ATS) seminars). On the other hand, "counter-trend" strategies revolve around taking advantage of perceived "excesses" in the directional move of a trend, looking to capture the retracements toward some form of "median" or "support/resistance" area. Although I'm obviously biased toward one of these styles (Trend following), allow me to discuss the pros and cons of each and the way to use each style to obtain the best results within a given trading environment. Trend-following styles base their approach on a simple principle: The trend displays the direction of the group in control (Buyers or sellers) and thus, trend-following traders will want to take positions using reliable patterns to try and take advantage of this potential continuation of the current direction, at least until the trend changes. These traders have developed "objective" ways to define a trend, its quality and odds of continuation. The idea is a rather simple one...trend-followers want to swim with the current. Whenever there's an established trend, the group in control (buyers for uptrends and sellers for downtrends) tends to push prices in the direction of the trend, at least until the imbalance of supply/demand created ceases to exist. Such imbalances create "momentum" that helps them achieve larger moves when they're right. How long can any given trend last? That's anyone's guess, although the analysis of supply/demand levels (Ref. title="technical trading"Pristine's ATS seminar) can sometimes help determine that with great precision. There will be a time when trading in the direction of a given trend becomes higher risk, because the trend could be "extended" or nearing support/resistance areas. In the end, these traders will have confidence in the trend at hand as long as the objective conditions that created and fuel the trend remain in place, looking to trade the patterns included in their respective Trading Plans within the trend. When said trend changes, they'll reevaluate the trading direction and use a new set of tactics better suited to the new trend. Counter-trend traders try to capitalize from those "retracements" toward the median price that typically take place within a trend. If you take any given chart displaying a decent trend, you'll notice that these "retracement" moves do happen, but when compared with the usual moves in the direction of a trend, they tend to be smaller in size and shorter in time. Execution also tends to be an issue when dealing with "counter-trend" trades, as the act of swimming "against the current" makes for greater levels of "slippage" when stops are hit (In many cases the "stop" of a counter-trend trader will be the entry signal of a trend-follower" and since the trend is in the opposite direction...). That's not to say they're not tradable, but the clues mentioned above should set the stage for the way in which a Pristine Trained Trader should normally handle these (Usually as short-term "scalp" trades instead of looking for holding periods similar to those that usually are expected when taking a "trend-following" position). The Pristine Method® seminar series teaches traders very specific parameters to trade some of these "counter-trend" events, looking for just those with the greater odds of producing a decent move. In the end, I'm a trend-following trader for most of my trades, looking to focus on the direction created by the stronger group of traders. Then I'll apply the strategies I learned in my Pristine education to profit from these trends, and when the trend changes I'll have the necessary objectivity to change with it. That's the professional way. Also, Pristine has been nominated for the Trader Planet STAR Award in the categories of Best Trading Course and Best Live Trading Room. We need your vote. Please go to http://www.traderplanet.com/l/9Kc and vote. You can vote everyday! Trade Well! Jeff Yates Contributing Editor Interactive Trading Room Moderator Gap and Intra-Day Trading Specialist Instructor and Traders Coach
  3. Been lurking around for a little while now, and I like what I see in terms of community, so I've decided to take it upon myself to try out a little experiment. I'm going to take my analysis, AND my trading, out into public view on a pretty regular basis, to give some of you a good idea of how one trader runs their particular trading business. Since this is my first post here, i figure you might want some background info. I've been trading for almost 10 years now, successfully (more or less) for about 4. Yes, I do this for a living, although this year has been particularly tough for me. In my primary account, I'm holding a double digit return for this year (just barely), although I had a time of it a few weeks ago, and halved my yearly profit in about 3 days. It was absolutely terrible of me to do so, but all things considered, it would have only been about a month of profits from 2011 (which was a much better year for me). I've traded just about everything under the sun, though I currently am trading primarily a few futures markets (currencies, equities, and crude primarily, though I do others sometimes), as well as the spot forex markets. I also am getting more involved with equity stat arb, though it's not something i'll be discussing much at this point. I've traded options, stocks, bonds, ETF's, currencies, futures, even softs, so i've been around the block. My trading style : well, I really just focus on 3 indicators. The MACD, an RSI, and a 21 period stochastic..... Just Kidding. I'm primarily a technical trader, but I don't subscribe to a single system or method or anything like that. I also consider the underlying fundamental drivers in the market, as well as near term and mid term sentiment. I've found if one wants to get the best results in the market, one must have a comprehensive understanding of what information other people in the world are basing their trading decisions on. For the record, I don't use any "indicators" though I will use a couple moving averages on occassion to filter for a strong trend. I have a few other tools, but I'd say moving averages is the closest I come to any "indicator" So, it probably seems like I should be doing pretty good eh? well, that's where you all come in.The problem is my head, and i've decided to really focus on some of the more positive aspects of the markets, as well as re-enforce all the necessary lessons and rules i've learned in the past... And the best way I know to do this is to teach it to those who care to listen. Not to mention trading is an isolated business, and I'm hoping this experiment here will give me an outlet to chat with like-minded folks. And most of you folks seem nice enough. Here is what you can expect: - Live, Realtime Trading in a real futures account. - An open "forum" for discussing trading, mine, yours, market thoughts in general, trading aspirations, just to shoot the shit, or even the most painless ways to commit suicide (common discussion for the "i don't use stops" group usually)... whatever. - A comprehensive trade analysis with some explanation behind it (as I feel compelled to do so anyway) - trading and the head game discussions. This will probably be my favorite topic, but who knows. - something akin to being a fly on the wall of the office of a real, full time trader. I will go into many things here, including more info about my method, setup, rules, etc... but it'll be an organic process. The only thing is it will require some mutual participation. I'm not gonna get anything out of this if there arn't any "students" who care to participate, or at least others who care to debate the finer points of the capital markets. So, as long as there is some participation, I'll be happy to roll stuff out. If that ends, (or doesn't begin)...well, I probably won't stick around. NOW: For the FIRST order of business: I will be hosting a live trading "chat-minar" over at anymeeting.com. It's obviously free, though I don't plan on doing any talking... just typing.. It's easier to keep it more casual that way, and that way I don't have to worry about filling "dead air" time. If you attend, you will get to see a general overview of my approach to trading, as well as watch, in real time, how I place my trades, and how much I make (or lose... as it very well may end up to be the case. we will just have to wait and see) I'll be starting the "chat-minar" after toyko opens, but before europe opens. I'm just going to basically have a screen up the entire time with a chart and my orders (if there are any) on it... so, it'll be something like "TraderCam" Here's a link to check out the TraderCam and learn how I trade from home: http://www.anymeeting.com/currencytraderx1 Also, the chat function on anymeeting.com kinda sucks. I'd prefer to start a skype group for this webinar here, so you can use anymeeting.com to watch the screen, and we can all discuss the markets via skype. If that's too much for ya, there is a chat function in anymeeting.com, it's just not ideal. But, for now if you don't have skype, don't worry about it. Anymeeting will do for today My skype name is: forextraderx Oh, and lets keep this positive folks. I know some of you are probably really cynical about anything remotely close to vendorspeak (and rightfully so!) But I'm not selling anything, and for some crazy reason i'm actually going to be doing this live... probably 2-4 times a week for quite a while if everyone (including me) is getting something out of it. While I'm not guaranteeing "A 93.6%+ win rate with my system!" I am guaranteeing live trading, in a real account, in real time, with plenty of premarket analysis, all just for the heck of it. So stop by, and lets talk trading and make some money! TraderX
  4. We believe in the 80/20 principle in many aspects of life, including trading (i.e., 20% of the workers do 80% of the work; traders will make 80% of their money in 20% of the time, etc.). So the key, then, is to determine when to SOH (Sit on Hands), and when to trade more aggressively (push the throttle), and take 2x to 3x the normal share size, provided your Trading Plan permits. Here are a few of my considerations when deciding to get more aggressive on the long side (opposite for shorts): Is the market environment what we call a "green light day?" For this, we focus on the trend of the broader markets and following market internals. Imagine if the SPY, DIA, and QQQ were all quality patterns on the weekly, daily and hourly charts, with multiyear monthly major support? Is the TICK bullish, with support at 0 on the day, and oscillating above 0? Is the TRIN bullish, in a tight range below .5? If so, you should be diligently searching for high odds, quality patterns to trade long for day trades and swings. Next, the reliability of the pattern is key. You want a stock showing relative strength to the sector and broader markets, and a pattern that delivers a huge reward-risk (i.e., huge target with a small stop). Remember, you must always be asking yourself how much risk you are assuming in relation to the desired target. When you see the high odds patterns that you recognize, and the internals support longs, you should be ready at the keyboard and possibly "Push the Throttle", in alignment with your trading plan. Finally - are you a good trader? Do you have enough experience in the market and are you hitting your goals? DO NOT PUSH THE THROTTLE if you are having a bad day or bad week or bad month. DO NOT PUSH THE THROTTLE if you are still in the early stages of learning and losing consistently. Don't worry, your time will come. But the key is to keep yourself from BLOWING UP your accounts while you are learning. The bottom line is that if you are losing, any urges you get to PUSH THE THROTTLE may be result of revenge trading or frustration. It will do nothing but beget more frustration and larger losses. KNOW YOURSELF. So, if you are 'hot' and you are 'seeing the market' well and have been doing well following your plan and successful, then you may consider PUSHING THE THROTTLE. I find that when I "Push the Throttle" my win percentage skyrockets - only because I have experience and these days and trades are HUGE winners. But if you are NOT there yet, and you know whether you are or not, DO NOT DO IT. Manage to your plan and gain consistency and profitability thru great market experience and review, and you will be ready to PUSH THE THROTTLE when the time presents itself. KURT CAPRA Contributing Editor Instructor and Traders Coach
  5. In last week's Chart of the Week (COTW), I explained why there would not be a severe market correction any time soon. However, I did tell you short term the odds are that a minor correction is not that far off as we are coming into what is historically the most bearish time of the year. That being said, we need a common sense way of measuring the likelihood of a historical cycle repeating, rather than blinding following history. Let's look. For a short-term correction to occur there has to be a reason for that to happen, other than just the time of year. Many seasonal periods have failed to produce the expected based on the past. Here is what else has to be in alignment with this time of year. First, in an uptrend, the Void of price resistance has to be closed. Without an area of price supply to the left, prices aren't likely to pullback much. Second, the majorities have to be willing to take on a historical high level of risk with bets that the trend will continue after having doubting it. This is seen through an acceleration of prices moving higher and an increase in speculative leveraged bets. In other words, the trend is now obvious to the latecomers and they are entering close to the worst possible time. This started happening last week. In the chart above, prices of the S&P 500 measure by the ETF symbol SPY began accelerating higher the week before last and are nearing resistance. This resistance is also the all-time highs from 2007, so this area will be an obvious point that all will focus on. So why are so many increasing their buying into an area where selling will show up? It always happens that way and I believe that it's just human nature to ignore the obvious risk when greed kicks in. There is also the fear on the part of money managers that they have missed the move and are jumping in. The second component needed is speculative leveraged betting and there is no place better to measure that than with the activity of options traders. The chart above displays the number of put options traded verses call options in equities on each day and a 5-day moving average of those daily closes. The 5-day moving average and the daily close have reached a historical level where short-term corrections are not far off. Combined with the upward momentum into prices resistance it tells us that the odds of a short-term correction are high during this bearish yearly time. Historical cycles in the market can be a good guide to timing change, but alone they are not enough. It's the combination of technical concepts and market internals with historical cycles that make them valuable information. All the best, Greg Capra President & CEO Pristine Capital Holdings, Inc.
  6. Hi, This follows from the RS- Internal thread. I have been able to code the classic divergences to a satisfactory level without a future looking formula. The peculiarity of this method is that it detects a divergence before the second consecutive peak/trough actually occurs on chart (anticipatory discovery). This eliminates the huge lag in decision making caused by waiting to confirm the second peak/trough. See this chart: Most codes that I've seen around either use a future looking formula like zig-zag and/or wait for the confirmation of second peak/trough. By the time the second consecutive pivot is confirmed, market has already moved away by few bars. In V-shaped pivots, the move is already over if one goes by the traditional way of comparing two peaks on prices vs. an oscillator. More charts: BTW, the 'advanced' word in title is more of a cliche; the strategy is actually basic (conceptual); i.e. mark opportunity when a stock seems to move lower while it's internal relative strength actually increases. I will be calling some signals live in this thread, so it will also serve the purpose of a journal, to improve the strategy.
  7. All live calls should be posted here, preferably following this syntaxis: market position price [stop price] [target price] for example: DOW long 12800 stop 12780.
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