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Market Wizard
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  1. closed half the short out for a 3 point profit... don't like the lack of follow through on this selloff since europe opened. FTX
  2. Welll, just got short at 1407...4 point stop... no set target right now...
  3. Here is a daily chart of the GBP/AUD. I've included some notes on why i'm bullish, and where I think would be good prices to get in at. also, when i mention the 50% fib retrcement, i am referring to drawing a fib of the high and low of friday.
  4. Ya, i'd strongly recommend a charting package that shows a forex day ending at 5:00 pm EST. I find daily highs and lows to be one of the most significant factors I use when determining possible entry, stop, and target points... and if your chart shows days differently then the "official" time...then what may be a price level that you believe the market will reverse off of because it is a previous "daily low".... well, if it's not a daily low that corresponds with the largest proportion of other traders... you could be in for a lot of frustration. FTX
  5. Well... I feel I have some clarity coming into this wee as to what is going to be moving up, and what will be moving down. i'll go more into the analysis a bit later, but I'm probably most bullish on the dollar... and the yen shortly behind. I'm still extremely bearish on the CAD... but now I'm also more bearish on the euro than I have been in a while, and i'm probably most bearish on the AUD...maybe even more than the CAD for the next couple days. I'd say USD and JPY strongest, GBP behind that, then EUR and CHF and possibly NZD behind that, then the weakest should be CAD...and maybe AUD at the very bottom of the pack. as for my trades, i'm long right now the GBP/AUD from around 1.5485ish, the USD/CAD from around 9950ish, and the EUR/CAD from around 1.2770ish. My biggest position is on the USD/CAD long.
  6. Anyone else ready to sell the pants off the market this week? Personally, i'm looking for the market to push down to at least 1388 this week, possibly even down to 1380, though at that price i'd consider a counter trend trade long... and until the market retests the low of last week of 1393, I'd love to get short somewhere between 1418-1424. So for monday, i'm looking for any excuse to get short until we hit 1393. I'll happily hold those shorts until we hit 1388. and if by some miracle we can get up to or above 1418 before we retest 1393, i'll go short even without an excuse. anyone else care to speculate what this week may bring? FTX
  7. Ok... ok, that's kind of what I figured you were saying... and from a few minutes on google I can't argue the inflationary effect on commodities over the last X years... and as you say it's really all about the fed (and for the most part I agree with you here). However, the devaluation of the dollar also has a positive effect on many U.S. firms, particularly those doing a good deal of business abroad. Earnings for the past 2 years have been quite remarkable on wallstreet in a variety of industries. We could credit this to many factors, but I would suspect that fed policy has had a significant influence, even if only indirectly. And besides, correlation that is statistically valid, regardless of underlying rational, is still statistically valid. It's also prone to becoming "uncorrelated" fairly rapidly at some point, and probably never to see that type of correlation again. But as long as it is a statistically valid correlation, it's better than the 50/50 proposition of a coin toss. Kind of like the rational of following a trend. Sure it eventually ends..but while it is trending in a particular direction, there is a greater likelyhood of any given trade being successful if it trades in the underlying direction of that current trend. FTX
  8. Fact is Mighty, sometimes I find copper leads, sometimes the spooz, sometimes they dance in tandem. I know what your saying, but over the past few years of observation, I find the relationship is more like that of the NQ and the ES...sometimes one leads, sometimes the other, sometimes they are in lock step. As far as CB policy influencing the spooz/cop relationship... care to expand on that a bit? are you implying simply because copper is an inflation hedge (like gold, silver, etc?) If so, you may be correct, but "common sense" tells me that gold and silver and other precious metals absolutly, but copper I believe is more influenced by industrial production than it is by a "flight to/escape from" quality. if your making another point, please elaborate. FTX
  9. Sorry Suby, forgot to give a shred of evidence. Actually, I kinda use my eyeballs and a couple charts to see if something has some positive/negative correlation, but if you want a more precise visual representation, this guy has some cool looking pics that although doesn't give a standard D of variation of a mean... it is pretty obvious that there is some strong correlation going on, particularly with copper/ES S&P 500 Relationships & Correlations - TheArmoTrader | TheArmoTrader As far as the vix goes, your right on with it's inverse correlation to the S&P... I use the vix from time to time, but I don't think of it as a capital market that has an inverse correlation to the S&P, for the simple fact that it is literally a derivative of the S&P... it literally calculates volatility and the rate of change of volatility in the S&P... so it's not really a "correlated market" as much as it is a "derivative index" of volatility of the S&P. Though your point is true, a high vix usually occurs with strong selloff days (or right before strong selloff days), this really can work no other way. Without the S&P, we would not have a vix. But without the S&P, we could still trade 30 year bonds, copper futures, etc. i'm primarily arguing semantics here, but I do see it as a worthwhile stance because I feel the vix is more an "indicator" of sorts (kinda like charting the COT data, or the TRIN or TICK), and not so much a "correlated market" FTX
  10. It is correlated with gold and silver, but gold and silver are not really "industrial" metals. However, copper is very much so. demand for copper futures often will start to tick up as businesses make more semi conductors, electrical appliances, etc. In fact, nearly anything tech related uses copper as a raw material to at least some degree... so for these reasons, copper is frequently viewed as sort of "leading indicator". At very least, it's more correlated to the S&P than probably any other raw good or raw commodity. Here is a link to a few graphs that show the degree of correlation between various markets. As you can see, of the various commodities that have some statistically relevent positive correlation to the movement of the S&P, it's actually copper that has the highest and most consistent degree of correlation, when compared to gold, the U.S. dollar index, crude oil...etc. S&P 500 Relationships & Correlations - TheArmoTrader | TheArmoTrader
  11. Ah man... sorry Mitsu, I would have liked to respond to this in real time... cuz any schmuck with a demo account and 2 eyeballs can look back and give really clever sounding post-move analysis, but I like to do things in real time for the obvious reason: that's where the money is. my bias was more based on a greater chance of the ES first hitting, say 1416 than it would of, say 1390. So it wasn't so much set for monday exclusivly, rather, a particular upswing with a particular magnitude would be the qualifying factor. Once that move was hit, my bias would have been "resolved", and I'd reanalyze. If you had asked me for the next 2 weeks, i would have said bearish (and am at this point, daily, weekly, monthly... all TF's i'm bearish biased right now)... but for monday/tuesday? more bullish than bearish. I'll try to post up something later here for what I'm seeing, and how i'm measuring it, and why, specifically regarding the ES... so we can keep a theme of real time calls here. otherwise, i mean, i can say what I thought and mentioned to an associate or 2, but really, hindsight analysis is not worth the trade one can place on it, when it comes to explaining a methodology IMO. It's fantastic to learn from mistakes of course, but that's not really the intention here, so i'll stick with analysis of future outlook regarding daily bias. FTX
  12. Ya. news/econ report trading is really like price action/candlestick trading. No, it's not as simple as "good report = buy. bad report = sell". But I never really understood this type of garbage logic anyway. That's like saying "green candle = buy. red candle = sell." If that's your approach to reading price action, then your gonna pay for a lot of other peoples dinners. Same thing with news/data/catalyst event based trading. However, just like reading candlestick price action, the news/event/catalyst based trading can be a viable profitable approach to trading. And really good point on the time thing. This never gets enough attention IMO. But, there is usually 1 good trade in asia. 1 good trade in london, and maybe 1 or 2 good trades in the U.S. session. The hour before and after the "open" of each session tends to be the hour that "the move" is going to be found. Combine with a few other basic concepts like previous daily highs/lows, etc..., and this can be a real "bread and butter" money maker. I mean, if I had a dollar every time the EUR/USD slid downward during asia, then london opens only to retest the asian session lows before reversing 30-100 pips to the upside...then I would make a good livin....oh, wait. nevermind. I do have a dollar for many of those times. Very good points though Steve... and both are sorely neglected by the general trading populace. My guess is because neither approach has enough multi-colored squiggle lines to hypnotize the masses. FTX
  13. Aright Cat... for the most part i've been away myself this week... other than a few losing trades I took. Anyway, first problem I see is that I have no idea what time zone your MT4 is spewing data out from.... I see you got long on October 29th, at 6:01 AM... problem is, I don't know what 6:01 AM is. I see your post with the charts occured around October 28th, at 11:18 PM Central Standard Time (which is about 12:18 AM New York Time, on October 29th)... So, if you could do the following, it would be greatly appreciated: 1. Let me (us? whoever else is watching this thread I suppose) know what time zone your MT4 is in... so, when it says Oct 29th at 6:01 am... well, what time zone is that exactly? I don't see how it could be GMT, or EST (which are the two most common time zones quoted around this forum)... So, give us some sort of standardization so we can look up your trade on our charts, and all be on the same page. 2. Also, I would STRONGLY advise that you use a different charting provider other than MT4 for your daily charts. Reason being, I find that having a forex day end at 5:00 P.M. Eastern Standard Time (EST) is the best time to have your daily charts start and end at. In other words, if you lived in New York, and your chart time was set to your local new york time... then when new york time hit 5:00 pm, your daily candle would "end", and you would start a new daily candle at 1 second past 5:00 pm. Why does this matter? Well, admittedly many say that it doesn't matter because forex is a 24 hour market, it never closes...blah blah... however, the close of the U.S. session at 5:00 pm EST is traditionally considered the "end" of the trading day, with the NZ (and AU) markets bringing in the new day at the close of the U.S. session. So many of your daily candles will print a bit different depending on when your day "rolls over" into the next. With experience and time, you will probably be able to see the same basic message on a daily chart, regardless of the daily cutoff time, however in the beginning (now), I would have your day set to end at the time that the largest proportion of traders also have theirs set to end, which is the 5:00 pm new york time each day. I for one ONLY use the 5:00 pm EST cutoff as the end of my "daily candle", and this has served me well for years now. Give us info on my point 1... and then for point 2, I would simply say you do this for your future daily chart analysis. Once you reply with this info, I'll probably be able to give you more of my own take, and a more insightful critique of your analysis and this trade. FTX
  14. Well, you got an answer from Col.... now I'll give you mine. To save time, I also use a type of market profile analysis, but you've already seen this from Col so I won't post that aspect up. For myself, I put most of my emhpasis on recent daily,weekly, and monthly candle price action, proximity to support/resistance levels, as well as trend, market symmetry, distance and momentum of current swing, and finally, a sort of deductive logical analysis regarding what price levels likely provide high levels of liquidity... and how price has reacted to those levels... and then where the next level is likely to be that will provide liquidity again. I also repeat much of this process in several correlated markets, including the 10 year bond futures, the EUR/USD, and copper futures, and of course I also include the NQ... and I also glance at the cash equivlient markets in the NQ and ES.... just to make sure the levels i'm watching in the futures are the same as in the cash markets... as well as any other market I find may be relevent (sometimes crude, which these days is directly correlated, sometimes the DX...which tends to be inversely correlated, etc) If I had to isolate just the most prevalent, heavily weighted factors that I consider...it would be recent daily candle price action, in conjunction with distance and momentum of current swing, and obvious S/R levels on the daily chart. Ok, so here's the pics and thought process breakdown. I have only included a pic of the 3 most important elements. However, I will include another post that later (probably tomorrow) that outlines more of these ideas and shows how I put them all together. But, honestly, these 3 are a damn good start..and probably will give me 50%-60% of my bias just as they are. Lets take a current chart of the ES, and break down what is going on. Click in the pictures below, and you'll see my explanation for how I look to understand each concept.
  15. IMO, that's like asking a mechanic what the best tool is to fix a BMW and a Volvo.
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