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  1. When I began learning about the trading using technical analysis over 20-years ago I filtered through much of the same information you are. I examined the use of trendlines, moving averages, countless indicators and other types of technical measures. All of which were supposed to define a trend, signal changes of a trend or turning points within those trends. What I found is that nothing worked with any consistently and there were too many variables. Especially flawed are the concepts of overbought and oversold, which I will convince you of. Whether you are a stock, commodity or currency trader, at some point you have been lead to believe that by using price oscillators like Stochastic, RSI, Williams %r or the many others you will be able to determine turning points in those tradable instruments. The idea with these is that they can measure the price action and determine when those prices have become overbought (moved too high) or oversold (moved too low). When a signal is given prices will then reverse. Once you've learned this and their ability to signal turns has been instilled in your beliefs of what is possible, you have been setup to fail. It's not your fault since those that teach the use of these indicators in trading courses will show you how well they worked in the past. Of course, real-time experience will show you how often it doesn't work. Let's look at a couple of examples Before we do that, if you have not read the article I wrote called Bringing Common Sense to Trading. In it you will learn how to trade prices action that has moved too far too fast. In the above chart of Google (GOOG), once prices began their move higher there weren't any pullbacks of significance. While conventional thinking would suggest that prices would or should pullback it didn't happen. You see, overbought is a flawed concept that does work and it will limit what you believe is possible. There is a meaning to the word of course, but it has no real existence in the markets. When buyers are in control and there is little to no price resistance to the left prices can move higher and higher regardless of the overbought belief. It is obvious from the chart above, what is overbought can become more overbought and then move even higher. If you still have any doubt that the idea of overbought or oversold is flawed, this chart should take care of it. As Research in Motion (RIMM) started its decline there was never a point where it was overbought within the decline, which is still intact. I know that we can make some oscillator with some setting show an overbought signal at the Pristine Sell Setup (PSS). However, that would setup another limiting belief that it may work in the future or on another stock or currency. FA Get About It. At this point, RIMM could be oversold at zero, but look at this chart. From the high, it fell 20 points and no bounce and then another 20 and nothing. It fell about 50 points before being able to move up and form that PSS! Is that when some oscillator read oversold? There is no oversold or that it has moved too far lower when big money institutions are overloaded and caught. In addition, when there is no significant price support to the left (a Pristine Price Void), the odds are extremely high that the decline is going to continue until the Void is closed. If you are reading this you are passionate to learn about trading and failure is not an option. You are in search of the truth in technical analysis; same as I was. I found it and it isn't in the accepted, over-taught indicator based methods. The truth is in keeping it simple and understanding the messages within the price action. This is the same for day-trading, swing-trading or long-term investing and the same for FOREX, Stocks or E-minis. If you have a trading screen full of indicators I am sure that you have been affected by the plague that infects everyone wanting to learn trading based on chart reading. Consider what I've shown you and remove them, read my other article Bringing Common Sense to Trading and the light will start to come on. All the best, Greg Capra President & CEO Pristine Capital Holdings, Inc.
  2. Hi friends, I am Vincent and I have been investing since 1985 and trading full time for the past three and a half years. I have learnt a lot from the various contributors at various websites such as Forex Factory, Traders Laboratory, etc. and am grateful for them sharing their experience so I decided that I am consistent, it will be good to share as well to help those that are still coming to terms with trading. The journey from being a passive investor to an active full time trader has been anything but easy. The psychological aspects cannot be underestimated. This is especially when one reads "you should not risk money that you cannot afford to lose." It's a sort of oxymoron when many retail traders that started had to do so because of age, etc. that made them relatively unemployable and being desperate for a "solution", they believe that trading is IT! The less capital that one starts with, the more the odds are stacked against them because the Catch 22 for them is they need to generate enough profits with as little as possible, that means higher leverage and also higher risks. A few bad trades could wipe out their entire account if they over leverage or have insufficient knowledge of how to trade. Usually BOTH are true when many start out. I used to consistently lose money until I learnt how to understand what was going on in the market. When I was learning trading with the many indicators and systems, it was not that they could not work but simply that they could not work for me for the amount of risk that I was prepared to take (typically my trades utilize a 15 - 20 pip stop loss for the EU and GU pair). Some systems, especially trend trading systems will require stops of 30-70 pips at point of entry, this was simply not feasible for me. It does not mean that these systems could not work but just that I could not bear to see the drawdown because often there will be drawdown and when that happens, many will not be able to take it and hence get relieved when they can get out with 20 pips after risking 50 pips only to see the trade run for 100 pips profit. It also explains why many traders let losers run and cut the winners short. They don't understand the supply/demand dynamics and why the market will retest levels of entry and they end up seeing the trade run away with profits that they could have made. They also fail to see that trading is a reward/risk endeavor where a high reward/risk will more than offset the inevitable losses. Intraday Trading can be really tough just based on indicators. Thanks to the works of Richard Wyckoff, Steve Williams and Chad/Sterling from "Day Trading Forex Live", it finally made sense and I could start piecing the jigsaw together. What was important was to understand the way the markets actually worked and find the tools and methods that work. I have incorporated the principles to develop my own system for intraday trading. I have a free blog called "Trek the Smart Money Trades" that provides a daily review of EURUSD and GBPUSD, with possible Smart Money price action and probable price levels. I have started by posting daily reviews on my blog and maybe later will add some of my trade setups, actual trades, etc. along the way. All tools that I use are freely available on the internet so it will not be difficult to follow me. I look forward to comments and will answer emails as best as I can. This is a free blog, if you find it helpful, my only request is to share/follow/tweet, etc for the google page ranking. This is the Market Analysis posted earlier today: DAILY REVIEW 24 Jul 2013 The daily EU candle is a below normal-spread (75pips) bull just off the high on vol >1days with clear bearish vol divergence. Price has closed above the FOMC spike high 1.3205. With the volume yesterday slightly higher than Mon and the price closing near the high, SM is likely to push higher. Price is close to the daily ema200 at 1.3249, this is a key moving average closely watched by many traders. This is also about the previous breakout retest level on a daily basis that was rejected at 1.3253 therefore even though the price has not reached the daily 1.3390 – 1.3400 supply area yet, this would be a possible area for SM to fade the weak longs to restock their inventory. SM has been creating selling pressure to fade the weak longs since last night which may well mean that they have commenced stocking up to go long later. While my bias is still long, I will be prepared to take profit at the 1.3250 level if price stalls with clear stopruns to the level and take a short back down. On the other hand, if price is able to breakthrough and does it on higher vol with each high, I’ll just hold the trade and look for 1.3290 – 1.3300 which is a previous congestion breakout level. If price actually closes below yesterday’s low during London, I will be looking to short at the retest of the breakout level as SM may go a bit lower before resuming the up move. EU long levels: 1.3184, 1.3163 EU short levels: 1.3250, 1.3305 GU: Daily candle small-spread small-body bullish spinning top (75pips) closed just off the high on vol>1day. Keeping in mind that we had bearish vol divergence yesterday and yet price made a higher high to 1.5390, the narrow body and range reeks of SM intention to sell. With H4 bearish divergence already playing out in Asia with the sell pressure created, if they stall above 1.5325 (yesterday’s low) and push back up, a stoprun/spike through the 1.5400 key level will see me go short as this has the possibility to reach the 1.5280 – 1.5260 level before reversing. If they break yesterday’s low during London, I will look to short at the retest of the breakout. GU long levels: 1.5325, 1.5280, 1.5260 GU short levels: 1.5390, 1.5400 Regards and Good Trading Vincent
  3. Okay, so much like the "Reading Charts in Real Time" thread, this thread will be for sharing ideas about future price moves of all the e-mini index futures. Any styles or strategies are welcome, but please do your best to share the thinking behind them! So to get us rolling, I have an idea to put to you. Below is a chart of the ES. Take a look before reading on. My idea is a sell on a failure to hold 1320. Volatility has increased over the past few days and frequently this is seen at extremes of markets. It is also in a triangle formation with lower highs and higher lows. So far it has resisted attempts to close in the minor 3 day balance highlighted. A close in or below this balance could see at the very least, a liquidating selloff. My entry idea would be either to sell a retest of the minor balance high around 1334 if we test and fail to break the prior balance high(red line) at 1320. Or if we fail at the balance high at 1320, fade any move back towards it. Any thoughts?
  4. In last week's Chart of the Week (COTW), I explained why there would not be a severe market correction any time soon. However, I did tell you short term the odds are that a minor correction is not that far off as we are coming into what is historically the most bearish time of the year. That being said, we need a common sense way of measuring the likelihood of a historical cycle repeating, rather than blinding following history. Let's look. For a short-term correction to occur there has to be a reason for that to happen, other than just the time of year. Many seasonal periods have failed to produce the expected based on the past. Here is what else has to be in alignment with this time of year. First, in an uptrend, the Void of price resistance has to be closed. Without an area of price supply to the left, prices aren't likely to pullback much. Second, the majorities have to be willing to take on a historical high level of risk with bets that the trend will continue after having doubting it. This is seen through an acceleration of prices moving higher and an increase in speculative leveraged bets. In other words, the trend is now obvious to the latecomers and they are entering close to the worst possible time. This started happening last week. In the chart above, prices of the S&P 500 measure by the ETF symbol SPY began accelerating higher the week before last and are nearing resistance. This resistance is also the all-time highs from 2007, so this area will be an obvious point that all will focus on. So why are so many increasing their buying into an area where selling will show up? It always happens that way and I believe that it's just human nature to ignore the obvious risk when greed kicks in. There is also the fear on the part of money managers that they have missed the move and are jumping in. The second component needed is speculative leveraged betting and there is no place better to measure that than with the activity of options traders. The chart above displays the number of put options traded verses call options in equities on each day and a 5-day moving average of those daily closes. The 5-day moving average and the daily close have reached a historical level where short-term corrections are not far off. Combined with the upward momentum into prices resistance it tells us that the odds of a short-term correction are high during this bearish yearly time. Historical cycles in the market can be a good guide to timing change, but alone they are not enough. It's the combination of technical concepts and market internals with historical cycles that make them valuable information. All the best, Greg Capra President & CEO Pristine Capital Holdings, Inc.
  5. Short term traders differ from longer term traders as those positions tend to be held longer than one day. Short termtrading is also referred to as “intraday trading” but these trades are held longer than positions used by scalpers, which are often closed in less than 15 minutes.
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