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  1. The theme over this last trading week has been one of remarkable resilience. After breaking down from key resistance levels, it seemed that a period of consolidation would follow. But, globally, markets instead rallied with conviction to retest their highs. I have been sceptical about the sustainability of the rally this year. But one of the most fundamental axioms of surviving the markets is to trade what you see, not what you believe. And what I am seeing is markets that seem to want to push higher across the board, with individual stocks holding up well even when faced with bearish news. S&P 500 (credit: chart from Sigma by Hydra X) The S&P closed the week strongly at 2,822.48, up 0.5% on high volume, and on the back of its biggest weekly gain since November 2018. US markets seem insistent on forging a path higher despite the overhang of earnings, macro economy news, North Korea, and ongoing China trade talks. I still wait for price to break and close clear of the congestion zone around 2,800 before entering longs, but this looks increasingly like a environment where the only rational positions to take are either to be flat or long. MICROSOFT (credit: chart from Sigma by Hydra X) Gains this week were led by tech, with the sector surging 4.9%, and also becoming the best performing sector of 2019. I find MSFT interesting, having completed a bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern, rallying in a tight rising channel, and strongly testing resistance (and also its all-time highs) on high volume. But a spinning top candlestick in the midst of overhead resistance, and a bearish stochastic crossover which in overbought territory could translate into a pullback, which could provide interesting entries for longs. TESLA (credit: chart from Sigma by Hydra X) A good litmus test for market sentiment is how stocks behave on news. Tesla has held on to $275 support despite its Model Y unveiling event underwhelming analysts; BAML, CFRA Research and Canaccord Genuity all issued cautionary notes. If it gets there, $260 looks to be strong support for a countertrend rally. BOEING (credit: chart from Sigma by Hydra X) Boeing continued to suffer the aftermath of the latest tragedy, ultimately having to suspend its entire fleet of 737 MAX planes when the FAA finally followed the lead of global aviation authorities in grounding the plane. Deliveries of the 737 MAX have also been paused. The beleaguered company faces an indeterminate outcome from investigations, bills from airlines affected by the grounding of the plane, as well as potential suits from the families of victims. On Thursday, the US Air Force joined the party. It launched a blistering attack on Boeing, saying that the company has a ‘severe situation’ after flawed inspections of their KC-46 air refuelling tanker aircraft, and questioning the company’s ‘culture of discipline for safety’. [https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/14/politics/air-force-boeing-refueling-plane/index.html] Despite all this, the stock has proven remarkably well supported at $370, repeatedly rallying from those levels on high volume. FACEBOOK (credit: chart from Sigma by Hydra X) No company has had a worse week than FB, even within the context of its bad year. The week started with a proposal by Senator Elizabeth Warren to break up FB, was followed by a network outage affecting its Facebook, WhatsApp and Instagram services, and then announcements of a widening federal criminal probe into its data sharing practices. Two key executives, Chris Cox and Chris Daniels also announced their departures from the company. A nadir was reached when its Facebook application was used to livestream the hate-driven massacre of 49 people in New Zealand. Technically, the stock has broken below the bottom of its ascending channel, and key overhead resistance in the $170-173 region looks daunting. There is also a huge gap from Feb 2019 waiting to be closed. Yet in spite of the weak technical picture and the deluge of negative news, FB closed just 2.13% down for the week, and ended the trading session on Friday well above the lows of the day, forming a bullish hammer. While I have been waiting for a clear break in one direction or the other for a while, as rising channel met overhead resistance, I choose to stay as interested spectators for now. EUR/USD (credit: chart from Sigma by Hydra X) Finally, last week I noted the technical breakdown of key support levels in the EURUSD, in conjunction with fundamentally bearish news in the form of Draghi’s dovish speech. However, I was keen to stay on the sidelines, given past experience of how crowded trades tend to turn out. EURUSD didn’t disappoint, as it promptly rose in a stop-hunting rally, which would have trapped any short entries in a very uncomfortable position.
  2. I brought some share in Apple and i wanted buying even more, but i was told that China's GDP is falling. and i know that with a constant and steady fall of China’s GDP, China will have to suffer inflation to balance the situation, so that goods can be exported from China for a marketable and competitive prize. And if this happens, the RMB will keep losing it value hence affect the profit of Apple, thereby reducing my profit as a shareholder. So considering this, do you think there may be a turn around at some point? or is selling my shares the best option?
  3. sharabela

    Chart of the Day

    The aim of this thread to get intraday chart by forum members with proper analysis, explanation, stop loss and take profit. This would not only help us find more trades but help beginners learn more about chart reading as well. As I always believe together we are stronger.
  4. Interestingly during the roaring 20's of the past century, the world saw an economic high, in which underlying economic indicators were mainly ignored. People do not complain when they are making money, the wise investor or trader knows that when people are ambitious be careful. What happened to peoples fear of the domino effect of other debt riddled states? Today the prime minister of russia warns of a "deep recession" in 2015. Japan is deep in recession as well. Also according to bloomberg news, the Jerome Levy forecasting center sees a 65% chance of a recession in 2015. Quote David Levy the current chairman of the Jerome Levy forecasting center: "Clearly the direction of most of the recent global economic news suggest movement toward a 2015 downturn" end quote. Why is this forecasting center any different than the others that may say the complete opposite? Such as Morgan Stanley who predicts a longer run for the market. They most definitely have weight in words since their founder called the 1929 Great Stock Market Crash. He wisely sold his stocks when he saw indicators that pointed to an unsound market. What do you think? Will the market make a correction in 2015? Yes/No & why
  5. Ultimately what we are trading, are numbers. Numbers are relative, what does a number mean to you? Does it mean buying a new luxury vehicle? A high dollar timepiece? Or does it mean, making a living on your own, without some jerk boss lording them self over your life? So when we look at our profits and losses while are we holding onto that trade, what sentiments come to mind? This is a "Put your money on the table, take your money off the table market" now, cut your losses at 7% Unfortunately we are or have been at one time, self programmed into the adrenaline rush of entering a trade, whether we lose or gain, we scour through forums (such as this one) to look for added incentive to keep the position, or take one. But ultimately what do the numbers say? No, not what one armchair economist thinks, im talking about what makes sense. A fellow I know, lost 50k in one trade a few years ago, why was this? Doubtless he kept up the incantation "its going to go back up". When in reality ,he should have cut his losses at the 7% line. When we see positive numbers on our trades, take them. Don't get married to your trade. The trade doesn't care about you nor your feelings, you have to be detached to make money trading. http://www.QDRV.com
  6. f there's one trading dilemma that tends to inspire the most heated discussions among professionals and novices alike, it would have to be the one dealing with the decision to trade "with the trend" or "against the trend". Countless books have been written on the subject, and although there are no definitive answers, I've decided to set the record straight in regards to the realities of these two approaches and the proper way to handle each. First of all, let's define these two approaches for greater clarity. For our purposes, we'll consider "trend following" any strategy looking to take advantage of a directional move in the context of an existing trend within the timeframe in question. This requires that we make sure that there is an existing trend and then looking for tradable patterns to take advantage of a continuation of said trend. Technical traders learn to recognize the parameters that define a trend, and then look to "cherry pick" among the healthiest trends available (Ref. Trading the Pristine Method® (TPM) and Advanced Technical Strategies (ATS) seminars). On the other hand, "counter-trend" strategies revolve around taking advantage of perceived "excesses" in the directional move of a trend, looking to capture the retracements toward some form of "median" or "support/resistance" area. Although I'm obviously biased toward one of these styles (Trend following), allow me to discuss the pros and cons of each and the way to use each style to obtain the best results within a given trading environment. Trend-following styles base their approach on a simple principle: The trend displays the direction of the group in control (Buyers or sellers) and thus, trend-following traders will want to take positions using reliable patterns to try and take advantage of this potential continuation of the current direction, at least until the trend changes. These traders have developed "objective" ways to define a trend, its quality and odds of continuation. The idea is a rather simple one...trend-followers want to swim with the current. Whenever there's an established trend, the group in control (buyers for uptrends and sellers for downtrends) tends to push prices in the direction of the trend, at least until the imbalance of supply/demand created ceases to exist. Such imbalances create "momentum" that helps them achieve larger moves when they're right. How long can any given trend last? That's anyone's guess, although the analysis of supply/demand levels (Ref. title="technical trading"Pristine's ATS seminar) can sometimes help determine that with great precision. There will be a time when trading in the direction of a given trend becomes higher risk, because the trend could be "extended" or nearing support/resistance areas. In the end, these traders will have confidence in the trend at hand as long as the objective conditions that created and fuel the trend remain in place, looking to trade the patterns included in their respective Trading Plans within the trend. When said trend changes, they'll reevaluate the trading direction and use a new set of tactics better suited to the new trend. Counter-trend traders try to capitalize from those "retracements" toward the median price that typically take place within a trend. If you take any given chart displaying a decent trend, you'll notice that these "retracement" moves do happen, but when compared with the usual moves in the direction of a trend, they tend to be smaller in size and shorter in time. Execution also tends to be an issue when dealing with "counter-trend" trades, as the act of swimming "against the current" makes for greater levels of "slippage" when stops are hit (In many cases the "stop" of a counter-trend trader will be the entry signal of a trend-follower" and since the trend is in the opposite direction...). That's not to say they're not tradable, but the clues mentioned above should set the stage for the way in which a Pristine Trained Trader should normally handle these (Usually as short-term "scalp" trades instead of looking for holding periods similar to those that usually are expected when taking a "trend-following" position). The Pristine Method® seminar series teaches traders very specific parameters to trade some of these "counter-trend" events, looking for just those with the greater odds of producing a decent move. In the end, I'm a trend-following trader for most of my trades, looking to focus on the direction created by the stronger group of traders. Then I'll apply the strategies I learned in my Pristine education to profit from these trends, and when the trend changes I'll have the necessary objectivity to change with it. That's the professional way. Also, Pristine has been nominated for the Trader Planet STAR Award in the categories of Best Trading Course and Best Live Trading Room. We need your vote. Please go to http://www.traderplanet.com/l/9Kc and vote. You can vote everyday! Trade Well! Jeff Yates Contributing Editor Interactive Trading Room Moderator Gap and Intra-Day Trading Specialist Instructor and Traders Coach
  7. Hi friends, I am Vincent and I have been investing since 1985 and trading full time for the past three and a half years. I have learnt a lot from the various contributors at various websites such as Forex Factory, Traders Laboratory, etc. and am grateful for them sharing their experience so I decided that I am consistent, it will be good to share as well to help those that are still coming to terms with trading. The journey from being a passive investor to an active full time trader has been anything but easy. The psychological aspects cannot be underestimated. This is especially when one reads "you should not risk money that you cannot afford to lose." It's a sort of oxymoron when many retail traders that started had to do so because of age, etc. that made them relatively unemployable and being desperate for a "solution", they believe that trading is IT! The less capital that one starts with, the more the odds are stacked against them because the Catch 22 for them is they need to generate enough profits with as little as possible, that means higher leverage and also higher risks. A few bad trades could wipe out their entire account if they over leverage or have insufficient knowledge of how to trade. Usually BOTH are true when many start out. I used to consistently lose money until I learnt how to understand what was going on in the market. When I was learning trading with the many indicators and systems, it was not that they could not work but simply that they could not work for me for the amount of risk that I was prepared to take (typically my trades utilize a 15 - 20 pip stop loss for the EU and GU pair). Some systems, especially trend trading systems will require stops of 30-70 pips at point of entry, this was simply not feasible for me. It does not mean that these systems could not work but just that I could not bear to see the drawdown because often there will be drawdown and when that happens, many will not be able to take it and hence get relieved when they can get out with 20 pips after risking 50 pips only to see the trade run for 100 pips profit. It also explains why many traders let losers run and cut the winners short. They don't understand the supply/demand dynamics and why the market will retest levels of entry and they end up seeing the trade run away with profits that they could have made. They also fail to see that trading is a reward/risk endeavor where a high reward/risk will more than offset the inevitable losses. Intraday Trading can be really tough just based on indicators. Thanks to the works of Richard Wyckoff, Steve Williams and Chad/Sterling from "Day Trading Forex Live", it finally made sense and I could start piecing the jigsaw together. What was important was to understand the way the markets actually worked and find the tools and methods that work. I have incorporated the principles to develop my own system for intraday trading. I have a free blog called "Trek the Smart Money Trades" that provides a daily review of EURUSD and GBPUSD, with possible Smart Money price action and probable price levels. I have started by posting daily reviews on my blog and maybe later will add some of my trade setups, actual trades, etc. along the way. All tools that I use are freely available on the internet so it will not be difficult to follow me. I look forward to comments and will answer emails as best as I can. This is a free blog, if you find it helpful, my only request is to share/follow/tweet, etc for the google page ranking. This is the Market Analysis posted earlier today: DAILY REVIEW 24 Jul 2013 The daily EU candle is a below normal-spread (75pips) bull just off the high on vol >1days with clear bearish vol divergence. Price has closed above the FOMC spike high 1.3205. With the volume yesterday slightly higher than Mon and the price closing near the high, SM is likely to push higher. Price is close to the daily ema200 at 1.3249, this is a key moving average closely watched by many traders. This is also about the previous breakout retest level on a daily basis that was rejected at 1.3253 therefore even though the price has not reached the daily 1.3390 – 1.3400 supply area yet, this would be a possible area for SM to fade the weak longs to restock their inventory. SM has been creating selling pressure to fade the weak longs since last night which may well mean that they have commenced stocking up to go long later. While my bias is still long, I will be prepared to take profit at the 1.3250 level if price stalls with clear stopruns to the level and take a short back down. On the other hand, if price is able to breakthrough and does it on higher vol with each high, I’ll just hold the trade and look for 1.3290 – 1.3300 which is a previous congestion breakout level. If price actually closes below yesterday’s low during London, I will be looking to short at the retest of the breakout level as SM may go a bit lower before resuming the up move. EU long levels: 1.3184, 1.3163 EU short levels: 1.3250, 1.3305 GU: Daily candle small-spread small-body bullish spinning top (75pips) closed just off the high on vol>1day. Keeping in mind that we had bearish vol divergence yesterday and yet price made a higher high to 1.5390, the narrow body and range reeks of SM intention to sell. With H4 bearish divergence already playing out in Asia with the sell pressure created, if they stall above 1.5325 (yesterday’s low) and push back up, a stoprun/spike through the 1.5400 key level will see me go short as this has the possibility to reach the 1.5280 – 1.5260 level before reversing. If they break yesterday’s low during London, I will look to short at the retest of the breakout. GU long levels: 1.5325, 1.5280, 1.5260 GU short levels: 1.5390, 1.5400 Regards and Good Trading Vincent
  8. Hello everyone, I have started this thread to talk about regarding the markets (basically S&P 500 and Dow Jones Index) movements in the month of March. What do you think where will it move northwards or southwards ? In my opinion, since U.S. stock futures are higher and pushing the S&P 500 up to make a fresh challenge on its all-time highest close and for the Dow Jones to continue its record run. I see the market to move in northwards in march. Do you ???
  9. Trading today is more popular than ever. Countless individuals flock each year to the markets, hoping to make large amounts of money, many attracted by misleading commercials promising simplicity and easy access to riches. Many of these aspiring traders fail. In as much as we would like to think that each individual commits different and very particular mistakes in his quest for success, my experience as both a trader and Pristine Certified Trainer (PCT) has shown me that most traders typically fall prey to the same problems and mistakes. The following are just but some of the typical ones: Lack of a Trading Plan. Most traders lack a well conceived plan to trade the markets, and most mistakes committed by them can be summed up in this category. The lack of a decent plan means that the trader won't know which "events" to focus on, the rules to trade those events, money management rules, etc. Typical mistakes such as not taking stops and overtrading can be attributed to this problem. Lack of Confidence in his Tactics. Traders will only execute effectively if they're confident about the odds of any particular tactic. Learning it in a seminar isn't enough. You have to test it yourself, and reach a level of comfort and confidence that will allow you to execute with precision. Trading Under Monetary Pressures. Since people think that this is an easy road to riches, many leave their jobs or expect to make an immediate living trading the markets. Nothing is more detrimental to your success as a trader than facing the pressure to perform. Now, traders are focused on money, instead of technique and this leads to "dollar counting" which is detrimental to a traders progress. Trading with Insufficient Capital. Undercapitalized traders face two typical problems. One is the fact that they'll tend to take positions that will utilize a big percentage of their accounts, which in turn might produce losses that will be more significant than they should be. This is another reason why traders don't take stops. Lack of Proper Technology or Too Much Reliance on Only Technology. Traders that lack the proper technology, either because of the fear of using advanced systems or lack of commitment to obtaining them as a necessary cost of doing business, face a debilitating disadvantage as they can't process information quickly enough, and as we all know, this is a business that deals with the rapid analysis of information. On the other hand, there are those that think that technology alone, without the proper training and method, can solve their problems. An aspiring trader with no method, who just relies only on technology, is operating at a huge disadvantage. KURT CAPRA Contributing Editor Instructor and Traders Coach
  10. Good Morning All: In the last issue, I gave you part two of a four part series. This series is a set of exact steps that will help you tremendously if you have the technical knowledge, but cannot seem to turn the corner on making good profits. There are four things that you can do that I feel will 'dramatically change your trading career'. The results will be immediate, every week, and this will be item number three. It should be stated again, that if you do not have the technical expertise, you are not at the level that these comments will help. If you don't know how to look at a chart, no amount of refining will help you. Where do you get this expertise? There is no better place than the Trading the Pristine Method Seminar. After a long time of working with many traders, one discovers that there are certain truths that cannot be denied. There are four things that are done so consistently wrong by new, and even fairly experienced traders, that each of these mistakes results in bad trades 90% of the time for most traders. If traders would simply follow these four rules, they would eliminate most of their losing trades. The fourth rule does not really fall into this "90%" category, but is perhaps the most important. Four Things That Will Change Your Trading Career: Part Three of Four Here is the third rule, and the subject of this lesson. Traders should always follow the power of the market (or an individual stock). When the market or stock is having a bullish day, the daily bar is green, and the intraday trends are up, buy pullbacks; do not play short. When the market or stock is having a bearish day, the daily bar is red, and the intraday trends are down, short the rallies; do not buy the pullbacks. This sounds simple, yet this rule actually addresses the number one mistake traders make in selecting plays. Most traders, especially newer traders, try to short strong stocks, or buy weak stocks. They try to 'short the top', or 'buy the bottom'. They may not even realize they have the problem. Most issues like this are not discovered unless the trader takes overt action to find the problem. Why would so many traders pick up such a bad habit? The answer is simple; it is the same problem that causes so many traders to not trade the way they want to trade. Psychological issues step in and cause the trader to trade improperly. Catching a bottom or a top in a stock makes a trader fell like a 'hero' when right. And, if they do get an occasional trade correct, that is all they remember. They forget the dozens of losses it took to get the one winner, and remember only the glory of 'shorting that one at its high'. There is a strategy for shorting a strong stock, or buying a weak stock, but it is only used when the stock goes 'climactic'. Unfortunately, this play seems to be difficult for most traders to recognize, and requires patience, something most new traders do not have. Below is an example. Would you short this pattern as a 'climactic sell setup' (CSS)? Many traders see patterns like this and feel that it just cannot go any higher. So they short the first red bar, at the '?'. Unfortunately, the usual result is shown below. As the stock advances, they realize that they were not just off, they were way off. They needed the patience to wait for this high at the new'?', above. Surely THIS, is a much better place to short; or is it? Well, maybe not. The stock did not drop at all, and after a little rest, it is back off to the races. As a matter of fact, it turns out that shortly after every 'short' attempt, the truly great play was to go long, even though it looked 'extended'. Bottom line, stay with the easy play. Look at all the money that could be made on the LONG side of this trade, yet so many traders are drawn to finding the top. It is often never found. This is not an unusual chart, I am sure you encounter this every day. Closing Comments The concept illustrated above refers to avoiding playing a stock against the power of a strong trend. It is also applicable to avoid shorting stocks in general, if the market is in a powerful trend (and the same for not going long on a 'red bar' day). While there are certain stocks that will drop on bullish days, they are much harder to find, and as a rule, drop much less. Next week we will look at the fourth 'secret' that will change your trading. Paul Lange Vice President of Services Pristine Capital Holdings, Inc.
  11. Good Morning All: In the last issue, I gave you part three of a four part series. This series is a set of exact steps that will help you tremendously if you have the technical knowledge, but cannot seem to turn the corner on making good profits. There are four things that you can do that I feel will 'dramatically change your trading career'. The results will be immediate, every week, and this will be item number four. It should be stated again, that if you do not have the technical expertise, you are not at the level that these comments will help. If you do not know how to look at a chart, no amount of refining will help you. Where do you get this expertise? There is no better place than our famous Trading the Pristine Method Seminar. After a long time of working with many traders, one discovers that there are certain truths that cannot be denied. There are four things that are done so consistently wrong by new, and even fairly experienced traders, that each of these mistakes results in bad trades 90% of the time for most traders. If traders would simply follow these four rules, they would eliminate most of their losing trades. The fourth rule does not really fall into this "90%" category, but is perhaps the most important, and is the subject of today's discussion. Four Things That Will Change Your Trading Career: Part Four of Four It is time for the fourth and final rule of this series. As we have mentioned in the introductory paragraph of each of these four lessons, this is not really a 'new' rule. However, the first three rules are ineffective and worthless if you do not know the fourth rule. The fourth rule is to simply follow up to make sure that you are doing each of the first three rules properly. Now, DO NOT stop reading this and say, 'yea, yea, follow up, I know'. There is an exact procedure that must be followed. When this is followed, traders are always shocked and amazed at the results. 1. Print out the chart for the relevant time frame(s) for the trade you took. If it was a five minute Pristine Buy Setup, print the five minute chart. 2. Write the name of the strategy you played on the top of the chart. 3. Take a 'green' marker, and mark in the correct entry, stop, targets, and management, based on your trading plan. 4. Now take a 'red' marker, and mark in the actual entry and exits you had based on your trading records. 5. Now decide if the play you did was substantially correct according to your trading plan. If it was, write a 'good' on the top of the page. 6. If the play was not correct according to your plan, write a 'bad' on the top. 7. If the play was bad, put the reason why on top. Save these until the end of the week. Over the weekend, take all the 'good trades' and start a binder of good trades, saving the best examples of each of your strategies. We are very visual people, and learn best by pictures. Take all the 'bad' trades and categorize them by the reason they were bad. Take the number one mistake you committed that week, and do whatever necessary to resolve that problem the next week. Eliminate ONE mistake every week. Please keep a couple of important rules in mind. First of all, this process MUST be done at least 30 minutes AFTER the market closes. Traders often do not think properly when the market is open, and you will 'rubber stamp' any trade you do if you look at it soon after you close out the trade. The best case is to wait until that evening. Second, it is BEST to hand write on the chart. Print the chart, then use your own hand to write on the chart. Many like to use Power Point or other software, but the best learning will come from having all of your senses involved. If you must, it is better to do this on the computer than not at all, but try doing these by hand, as shown in the example above. This concludes a very important series of four lessons. If you are serious about your trading, see how well you currently do at these, and vow to follow them religiously for a week. You may be surprised. Closing Comments Even if you have not been following these four 'secrets', take the time to do this one. Print up some charts, and go through the procedure, even if you do not have good plan, or don't feel you even know what to look for. You will be shocked, and you will have a whole new perspective on the four things that were discussed over the last four weeks. I hope you have enjoyed this series of articles. Until next week, good trading. Paul Lange Vice President of Services Pristine Capital Holdings, Inc.
  12. While there are many concepts and nuances to be learned to be a complete technical trader and/or investor, there are a few basic criteria that if followed can make making money easy or relatively easier. Of course, this requires having the patience and discipline to wait for these high probability setups to occur. Can you do it? I will show an example of what to look for. Then it's up to you. In the weekly chart of Google (GOOG), prices broke above price resistance with strong momentum. This was followed by the first pullback after that strength to Minor Support (mS). As a general rule, the first pullback to mS after a strong momentum break above resistance will always be buyable. This is based on the basic concept that resistance once broken will become support. This area of mS is where we know buyers will be. Now we wait to see the price action of that actually happening in this time frame and the daily time frame. This concept can be used in a combination of lower time frames as well. It also applies to any tradable instrument; that being Forex, E-minis, Commodities. The basics covered - Prices have made a strong move above price resistance and we wait for the first pullback to mS where buyers are. Then wait for confirming price action in that area. oving down to the daily time frame, GOOG was not looking bullish at all before the turn. However, realize that the lower time frame never looks bullish when the higher time frame is pulling back to mS. For example, if you saw the EUR/USD currency pair in a 60-min. uptrend that was pulling back to mS, the 5-min. time frame would be in a downtrend. The expectation is that the lower time frame is going to turn in the area of mS in the higher time frame. Now wait for confirming the price action in the lower time frame before taking a position. As GOOG moved into the mS area shown on the weekly time frame, the confirming price action began (in this time frame) with a gap higher and then a strong close into resistance. Here is where it gets interesting and it will become obvious if the big money buyers are continuing to step up. We want to see that big green bar's low and ideally its mid-point defended by the buyers. While the buy signal candle came five days later, it could have come after only two days. There is no set number and this is where our Bar by Bar analysis concept comes in to tell us when GOOG will move. Bar by Bar analysis combines each new bar's meaning within the context of our bigger picture analysis. One bar can be meaningless in of itself, but when combined with our bias and the other bars, it's a powerful concept. The basics covered - While our lower time frame is moving down, the higher time frame area of mS is where prices should produce the price action that confirms that area and reversal of some type happens. Reversals can happening in many ways, so do not be set on it having to happen in "your way." Once the action occurs find an entry signal using Bar by Bar analysis. I have shown you the basics of what to look for in those easy money situations using two time frames; I used the weekly and daily. We can also take that bias into the intra-day time frames as I explained above with EUR/USD, but it could be anything. Now, let's look at some detail that occurred on the 60-Min. of GOOG that showed the "early turn" and a couple of Pristine concepts to understand the price action of the turn. As GOOG was trending lower into the area of mS on the weekly time frame a 60-Min. bearish Wide Range Bar (-WRB) formed accompanied with a huge volume spike. That's a bearish event, but remember this was right into the weekly mS! That was followed by a stall and bullish Wide Range Bar (+WRB), that's a very bullish group of events that started the early turn. Pristine Tip: That 3-bar reversal was the Bottoming Tail (BT) on the daily time frame. The Advanced Candlestick reader understands how different arrangements of candles can mean the same thing in the same time frame and/or different time frames. Names of candlesticks are meaningless and are more likely to confuse traders that use them or worse by causing avoidable losses and/or missed opportunities. Once GOOG gapped up and ran higher a Pristine Price Void (PPV) was created. In other words, there was now no price support below for traders to bid at. Support would need to be "created" for traders to bid at. Creating support and resistance is a powerful concept used by Pristine Traded Traders (PTT) to see where the big money is entering prior to existing support or resistance. Pristine Tip: Strong upward price moves often do not pullback to support, they create it. With the bias from the time frames shown above, intra-day traders could move to lower time frames of their choice to find confirming buy setups to enter. At this point, this is still the case. Side note, while I have used a 20-MA on all time frames. It has no relevance to being actual support, resistance or the trend. It is simply a "visual aid" to speed the analysis once understood. PRISTINE - A Trading Style, Often Imitated, But NEVER Matched!!! Greg Capra President & CEO Pristine Capital Holdings, Inc.
  13. This week I want to share with you one of the most enlightening moments in my learning process related to the use of trendlines. When I decided to educate myself about technical analysis and the markets there were no online trading seminars. There were no seminars at all, but if there were they wouldn't have been online since there was no internet. However, there were market letters that that came by snail-mail that did some education along with trade recommendations. All used trendlines in the analysis. Let's review what is taught about the use of trend lines and questions I had after using them. Trend line Analysis: A trend line needs at least two connecting points. A trend line with three or more points is stronger The trend line connecting points shouldn't be too close The trend line shouldn't be too steep or shallow An uptrend line will act as support A downtrend line will act as resistance A trend line once broken will have the opposite effect The break of a long existing trend line changes the trend Questioning the validity for trendlines: Should trendlines be drawn from bar extremes or the closes? Are trendlines drawn in a higher time frame stronger? Are intersecting trendlines a stronger reference point? Are trendlines valid in all time frames, even a 1-min.? Is a trend line drawn on an Arithmetic scaled chart more valid than those on a Semi-log scaled chart? Is the break of a trend line really a change in the trend? How many times can a trend line be redrawn? Can extending a line really predict where prices will reverse? My conclusion about the use of trendlines is that while widely used and have the potential to effect price movement on market indices especially, they are subjective as reference points of support and resistance at best and not needed. If you have used trendlines, had one break, seen prices reverse back in the original direction and you then redrew the line like I have. The question that came to my mind was, is it possible to "connect the dots" again and locate support and resistance? It didn't make sense, not common sense. The answer was no. The enlightening moment came when I realize that the analysis of support and resistance is not to be done diagonally, it has to be done horizontally. It was so simple, but all the hocus-pocus analysis taught made it so hard to get to that point. Besides the basic Trend Line there are Gann lines, Gann Box lines, Regression Channel lines. Median Lines, Andrews Pitchfork Lines, Fibonacci Circle lines, Fibonacci Fan Lines and it goes on and on. It should be no surprise why so many are confused about the use of technical analysis. Been there or there right now? Here what to do, simply look to the left and stop drawing lines! Let's review the trend lines and the real coming overhead resistance on some of the broader market indices. In the chart above of the S&P 500 ETF symbol SPY, I drew the downtrend line. Clearly, prices ignored it like it was not there. Actually, it is only there for those that drew it, so it only exists as a reference point for them, in their minds; it's not real. What is real is the area in red, which is there for everyone. Somewhere in that box sellers are going to overcome buyers. Will that be for a day, two days? How far will prices drop? That's the unknown. Right now there is no pattern to suggest that. The only thing known is that the area to the left is resistance and the move up has the greatest odds of stalling in the box. In the chart above the Nasdaq 100 ETF QQQ, I drew the downtrend line and we see that prices did stall at the line before moving higher. Was the line the reason? No it was not, it was the small area of price resistance to the left. Resistance does not mean prices have to go lower. Especially, when prices have fallen for a while as these did into an area of Major Support (MS) (not shown) where buyers will show up. The Qs entered into the area of price resistance Friday and sellers are going to show up in there. The 200-MA is also in the box and while subjective as a reference point of resistance, it is a widely followed point of reference. Notice the number of overlapping candles that are directly to the left of it and the unfilled gap. n the chart above of the Russell 2000 ETF symbol IWM, I drew the downtrend line. Odds are prices are going to stall there and trend line users will point to that. Why will prices stall there? Because price resistance is to the left and the other markets are coming into resistance also. It just happens to work out this way once and a while. Technical analysis does not have to be complicated; however, we have a tendency to follow what is when it comes to the markets. I did years ago, but eventually realized the majority of what is taught is nonsense. I don't know how all this nonsense started, but it's been going on a long time and continues. Most do not side-step this black hole on the way to finding the truth, if they ever do. You don't have to or can get out of it now. Greg Capra President & CEO Pristine Capital Holdings, Inc.
  14. Over the years, I've seen many TV commentators, newsletter writers, self-proclaimed market gurus, chat room moderators and of course, traders call a bottom. Most of them being early on their call and/or entry are caught on the wrong side of the trend. However, they always have follow up calls to get long in hopes of catching the elusive bottom. I'll show you how elusive - it isn't. What is baffling is, bottoms are one the easiest patterns to spot, so why not wait for it to setup? Of course that would take some trading education, which most people resist spending money on until they have lost some money - or a lot it. But how senseless is it to be calling and risking money on a reversal without any evidence of one? Don't expect this to ever change and we don't want it to. The bottoming pattern happens not only because of accumulation, it is also because of the early buyers capitulating. Let's review some examples. In the charts above are various tradable instruments. I chose bottoming patterns in stocks, commodities, currencies and the broader markets indices. It does not matter what you trade, this happens the same way in all tradable instruments. As prices move lower within a downtrend they will begin to accelerate lower near its end. This is seen through multiple bars moving down with little overlap between them and/or wide range bars. At some point, the move lower will be rejected and prices will spring back up. The spring up typically is shallow and does not violate the trend by overcoming Major Resistance (MR). What follows is a consolidation and pullback that will retest the original low. At times, the original low point of the move will be violated; however, all moves higher that initiated from the retest should have multiple bars moving higher into MR or above it and may have bullish Wide Range Bars (+WRB) as well. Pristine Tip: Multiple bars moving in one direction with little overlap between them are a Wide Range Bar in a higher time frame. The bottoming process can go on for a relatively long period of time depending on the time frame being viewed. Longer time frames will form bottoms over a longer period of time and vice versa for shorter. That being said, the Pristine Trained Trader (PTT) knows that the odds of the bottoming pattern having high odds of making a significant move depends on the alignment of multiple time frames and where the bottom sets up. Let's look at an example of a stock that should form a bottoming pattern soon. In the chart above, I have displayed multiple time frames of ROSS Stores (ROST). The monthly time frame is in a strong uptrend and pulling back where buyers will show up. That pullback is coming into first price support (green area), which may be hard to see to the untrained eye in this time frame. What I have marked on the monthly as price support is the overlapping candles in the $50 dollar area. Pristine Tip: Overlapping candles in a higher time frame are a base in a lower time frame. See the base in the weekly time frame at the left. Notice the increase in volume last week as current prices neared the base of price support. That pick up in volume is exactly what we want to see when prices enter into a price support area. The daily time frame of ROST is clearly in a downtrend and has not formed a bottom. However, Thursday's gap lower on increased volume that resulted in the formation of a Bottoming Tail (BT) is a typical exhaustion gap. This gap lower and BT could be the start of the bottoming process; time will tell. Exhaustion gaps come after a period of declining prices and signal that the last of the traders/investors hoping that prices would hold and turn higher have given up hope and are dumping their shares. With the current correction in the broader markets ongoing, I hope this Chart of the Week will help you what to look for. There may be stocks that have shown relative strength and have started the bottoming process already. You will have to scan for them, but now you know what to look for! Many new to trading the markets are lured into thinking that one market is a better market to trade than another. Those trying to sell you their services related to a specific market will guide you to that faulty thinking. For example, FOREX is a better or easier market to trade than individual stocks or equity e-minis. This is completely false. Any market can be difficult at times because of uncertainty related to that market resulting in choppy price action. Or, any market can be relatively easy to trade when multiple technical concepts are in alignment. With the right trading education - you can trade any market or stock you want with the same method. Remember, the examples of bottoming patterns above were from Stocks, Commodities and Currencies. There is no difference. Yes, different instruments have basic foundational information related to them, but that information is not what you will trade. It's the patterns within the trends at the time that you will trade. Happy Thanksgiving to All! Greg Capra President & CEO Pristine Capital Holdings, Inc.
  15. In last week's Chart of the Week (COTW), I explained why there would not be a severe market correction any time soon. However, I did tell you short term the odds are that a minor correction is not that far off as we are coming into what is historically the most bearish time of the year. That being said, we need a common sense way of measuring the likelihood of a historical cycle repeating, rather than blinding following history. Let's look. For a short-term correction to occur there has to be a reason for that to happen, other than just the time of year. Many seasonal periods have failed to produce the expected based on the past. Here is what else has to be in alignment with this time of year. First, in an uptrend, the Void of price resistance has to be closed. Without an area of price supply to the left, prices aren't likely to pullback much. Second, the majorities have to be willing to take on a historical high level of risk with bets that the trend will continue after having doubting it. This is seen through an acceleration of prices moving higher and an increase in speculative leveraged bets. In other words, the trend is now obvious to the latecomers and they are entering close to the worst possible time. This started happening last week. In the chart above, prices of the S&P 500 measure by the ETF symbol SPY began accelerating higher the week before last and are nearing resistance. This resistance is also the all-time highs from 2007, so this area will be an obvious point that all will focus on. So why are so many increasing their buying into an area where selling will show up? It always happens that way and I believe that it's just human nature to ignore the obvious risk when greed kicks in. There is also the fear on the part of money managers that they have missed the move and are jumping in. The second component needed is speculative leveraged betting and there is no place better to measure that than with the activity of options traders. The chart above displays the number of put options traded verses call options in equities on each day and a 5-day moving average of those daily closes. The 5-day moving average and the daily close have reached a historical level where short-term corrections are not far off. Combined with the upward momentum into prices resistance it tells us that the odds of a short-term correction are high during this bearish yearly time. Historical cycles in the market can be a good guide to timing change, but alone they are not enough. It's the combination of technical concepts and market internals with historical cycles that make them valuable information. All the best, Greg Capra President & CEO Pristine Capital Holdings, Inc.
  16. n a previous article, I wrote about the true value of paper trading and having a plan of how to move from successful paper trading into real money smoothly. The issue is; now that you are successful on paper, what next? First, as described previously, you must make sure you are successful at paper trading by some objective measure. Set up a test that you must pass. Four winning trades in a row, three out of four winning paper days, or any measure as long as you enforce it. I rarely hear of anyone who is not making a killing on paper. If you cannot do it on paper, do not proceed assuming it will 'all work out'. The next step then is to put a very small amount of money on the line. I mean small. The objective here is to start an 'official' record. Even the most honest people will be 'cheating' while paper trading. Also, you will now be subject to 'real' fills (or lack thereof) rather than your 'pretend' fills. Even real software paper trading systems are very gracious on fills. Also, all those order entry 'mistakes', and trades that you swept under the table will be real now. You will now have to deal with the psychological issues. Putting money on the line, even fifty dollars, will evoke egos that will step in and start changing everything you do. That is why I emphasize, even if you have a million dollar account, the fifty-dollar risk will be enough to make you change what you do. Again, if you do well, you can move your risk amount up. You will be surprised how your paper trading results change when you have a real trade on the table. If you can pass the same 'success' test that you first set up to get you beyond paper trading, then you start moving up the risk amount. One hundred, two hundred, until you get to the objective risk amounts that you have set out in your trading plan. Along the way, if you begin losing you need to go back to the prior risk amount. If you feel you are handling trades different due to the increased risk amount, then go back to the prior level as well. You see, if you follow this plan, it is very hard to lose a significant amount of money while you are learning. That folks is the whole objective. KURT CAPRA Contributing Editor Interactive Trading Room Moderator Instructor and Traders Coach
  17. Good Morning All; Many traders who study our methods learn in a fairly quick time how to trade properly. Most are taken aback by the ease and beauty of the method. If problems arise, it usually is due to not following some rules, and often the top rule to be broken is an improper entry. This entry is often due to not having patience, or not having a well-laid plan to remind you what to do. Here are a few basic reminders. The Best Time to Enter There are a few concepts that seem very basic, but often get lost in the day-to-day noise that can often cloud your judgment. Just taking a few minutes every day and a few seconds before planning every trade can often help keep you out of trouble. If you are core trading or swing trading, you need to ask if it is the best time to enter trades. Are you entering swing trades during the first 5 minutes, when the market really has no direction on the daily charts? The majority of stocks will get most of their move from the market in general, and the sector they are in. Are you fighting the main move of the market or the sector when you are entering? There are many times that longer-term trades should wait until the market is in the proper trend. When the market is in a major uptrend or downtrend most money can be made by taking stocks for the big moves with a long-term account; sideways or trendless times in the market are better for playing the range provided. If you are entering intraday trades, are you accounting for reversal times? Are you following your trading plan in terms of what strategies to play at what times of the day? Your trading plan should do everything possible to keep you out of trades. Are you trying to enter late day break outs during lunch? Are you going long at the 10:30 A.M. reversal time after a strong rally because you are afraid to miss the longs? Closing Comments Set realistic targets for the market you are in and make sure your stops make sense for the target projected, or pass the trade. Do not worry about missing plays. Worry about playing quality and preserving capital on days and times when the market is not in the same mode you want to be in. Paul Lange Vice President of Services Pristine Capital Holdings, Inc.
  18. The situation in the Eurozone remains the main driver for the market. The European peripheral countries and their debt problems keep influencing the stock market, causing risk aversion. Tuesday’s trading results turned out to be almost the same as on the previous sessions with the exception that the yen was the only currency to win against the dollar, and the reason for that were probably fears that China would raise its interest rated. As a result, the yen became attractive as a reserve currency, so the greenback managed to win only against the pound and the euro. The US economic data, released on Tuesday, turned out to be rather positive for the dollar too. As for today, the investors are looking forward to the news on employment – Fed’s labor report is being released this Friday. Of importance to the market will also be ADP . ? ?????? ???????? ????? ????? ADP private sector employment data. Growth by 69 thousand is anticipated in November, after the previous +43 thousand in October, which can be considered as a positive factor for the American dollar. News from ISM is also about to come out and manufacturing PMI for November is also there – a decrease from 56.9 to 56.3 is anticipated here. Fed’s Beige Book, which is likely to bring the information on the situation in the regions, is being released right at the end of the weekly trading session. It’s worth noting, that the dollar’s trading slowed down a bit on Tuesday’s session and the investors didn’t eager so much to buy the dollar any more, and this fact suggests to expect a possible large-scale correction. EUR After the situation with Ireland and its problems cleared up a little bit, the market switched its attention to the problems of some other European countries, like Portugal, Spain and Italy, which brought more negative moods to the euro. One leads to another and, like it usually happens, S&P rating agency threatened to put France on the list of countries “at risk”, to crown it all. Messages from the Portuguese central bank, which warned of a possible financial instability fueled the market even more. Today’s economic statistics will bring Germany’s and the Eurozone’s final manufacturing PMI which are likely to remain the same in November 58.9 (for Germany) and 55.5 (for the Euro zone). Germany’s retail sales increased month over month by 2.3% m/m in October after the previous -1.8% m/m and this can be considered positive for the European currency. Nevertheless, the market moods towards the euro are not likely to change significantly in the nearest future. Standard & Poor's is currently considering a possibility to downgrade Portuguese investment credit ratings, and these news will most likely keep negative to the euro. GBP Talks that financial situation in the Euro zone was getting worse put the pound under pressure, so the currency closed the session with a decline against the dollar, but the losses weren’t that big – probably as a result of the news, coming from Ireland – the country has close economic ties with Britain and the fact that the situation with Ireland financial issues had cleared up, supported the sterling. There weren’t any significant statistics from the Islands yesterday, but today the market will surely get some piece of news. Manufacturing PMI for November, coming out today, is likely to decrease from 54.9 to 54.8. Besides that, according to the data, received from Nationwide, Britain’s housing market results leave much to be desired – November index registered -0.3% m/m, 0.4% y/y after the later -0.7% m/m, 1.4% y/y. Still, taking into account technical factors, that suggest a correction in the GBP/USD pair, there is a chance of profit fixation in this instrument. JPY The Japanese currency grew against the dollar on Tuesday’s session as a result of decreased risk appetites because of the US poor employment data which turned out to be 5.1% in October after the previous 5.0% in September. Besides that, the US government bonds are not that high-yielding any more, which made the investors go back to the yen as a funding currency for the carry trade. Fears that China would make some changes to its monetary policy keep influencing the Japanese currency too – recent rumors that Beijing will have to raise its interest rates by 200 basis points through a bomb into the market. Today’s statistics brought data on vehicle sales, which turned out to be rather disturbing – the index dropped to -31.0% y/y in November after the later -26.7% y/y. As for the yen’s positions, taking into account high-yielding currencies highly possible corrections, the yen has all chances to become more attractive as a funding currency and, as a result, decline even further. For More Details visits(Promotional URL removed)
  19. To achieve high profit from trading the stock market, it’s advisable to trade as a pro (not as a gambler). To do so, there is a need to get some secrets of creating profits. Let’s now see which stocks are the top in NASDAQ Stock Exchange Market. >> Uranium Resources Inc. gains 120 % profit started on 2010/08/23 at price 0.6 >> Ascent Solar Technologies Inc. gains 80.25 % profit started on 2010/09/07 at price 2.38 >> EXACT Sciences Corporation gains 71.11 % profit started on 2010/09/07 at price 4.88 >> priceline.com Incorporated gains 61.49 % profit started on 2010/08/03 at price 230.67 >> Acacia Research Corporation gains 61.46 % profit started on 2010/09/13 at price 16.84 >> Occam Networks Inc. gains 61.18 % profit started on 2010/09/13 at price 4.56 >> Art's-Way Manufacturing Co. I .. gains 58.82 % profit started on 2010/09/27 at price 6.29 >> Sierra Wireless Inc. gains 58.41 % profit started on 2010/07/26 at price 7.19 >> Cresud S.A.C.I.F. y A. gains 47.31 % profit started on 2010/08/02 at price 13.4 >> Dynamex Inc. gains 44.52 % profit started on 2010/09/21 at price 14.6 >> Focus Media Holding Limited gains 44.15 % profit started on 2010/07/20 at price 16.85 >> LSI Industries Inc. gains 43 % profit started on 2010/09/21 at price 6 >> The Medicines Company gains 42.19 % profit started on 2010/07/26 at price 9.22 >> BSQUARE Corporation gains 41.2 % profit started on 2010/07/13 at price 2.67 Whether the market is up or down, you can create the profit you’ve dreamt of and avoid the loss easily. If you are interested in how to make such profit in just a few months, just keep an eye on the top promising stocks that are surely going up. (Moderator: Removed promotional URL)
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