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  1. I have a decent fundamental understanding of the fx market. however.. I learned.. (learning) how to trade futures..not doing well currently w my live acct. anyhow thats beside the point. I would like to know is the fx market better suited for a trend trader than emini index futures and CL futures? I would think that it is.. due to the massive daily volume compared to futures daily volume. basically..will I see more trend signal entry opportunities (intraday) in fx market? less whipsaws? because lately Ive been trading morning session eminis and and crude.. and I see little to no entry signals and the ones I take are mostly all whipsaws! I'll be up 10-12 ticks..then price will go against me and I get stopped out. plus the commissions are killing me at over $5 per trade. one exception that I saw recently was a huge uptrend in CL early last week..of course I could not trade that day..it was like a 90 tick move up! but for the most part CL has a lot of whipsaws..and the risk is too much for me due to the quick price moves and range.. I set my stop at 10 ticks..and this seems to be too small. anyway..back to the topic at hand: which currency pairs are more suited for the intraday trend trader? I know this topic is highly subjective, but I am looking into other options..just trying to get some good input..thanks in advance
  2. this pic was before I included MACD in my system
  3. thanks..just looking at different approaches to make sure my current system is a good one.. or..if I need to change it a bit. the system I was (am) using is a trend following system..but a much shorter time frame (233 and 610 tick chart). but I find myself getting stopped out a lot lately (live acct)..and figured I may need to step back and make some minor changes. I use MACD and momentum, BBs, and a 14 period EMA on top of the BBs.. and ATR stop dots (red and blue) these keep me in a trade, and also help to signal long or short. when all of this is in agreement, I enter. I mean I was making good trades on my sim acct, but now Im struggling. but I also know that I can have 10+ losers in a row..evn w a good system..and still be profitable. its the large winners I seem to miss out on lately. I think my main problem is exiting a trade...I will stay in for too long..then the market goes against me. I have included a pic of what good trade is for me (sim)..but I just cant seem to get these since I have gone live..I think it has to do w my emotions and anxiety...I get too anxious to make profits..then I end up choosing bad set-ups..but I dont know..I think it also has to do w me missing good set ups//then going for something after the good set up has already happened.
  4. what is the best instrument for a 30 min chart...as a trend follower? I like to start watching about an hour before open (ex.. ES)..is this a good indication of where the price is heading for the day? or should I wait until after market open? never traded 30 min chart..only shorter time frames and tick charts..but Im thinking I will have much less 'noise' trading a 30 min chart. of course this means setting a larger stop.. ie.. more risk..but potentially a larger profit
  5. thanks based on your post..and w out really crunching any numbers on my spreadsheet, I quickly came up w a 'round about' expectancy of 2.00 I always risk $100 per trade. 100/47= 2.12 avg winner $200 per trade. 200/47= 4.25 expectancy 4.25/2.12=2.00 seems close to my actual profit factor number of 2.23 on NT7 spreadsheet
  6. Ive been reading van k tharp's books lately and I need to know the expectancy of my system..or at least a better idea of it than I currently have. I see in his books that he states to determine avg profit or loss per trade and dividing it by by avg loss (for existing systems that did not previously calcuate R multiple distribution for each trade). however Im having trouble figuring this out on NT7 acct performance spreadsheet. here are the important numbers for one month (intraday) 47 trades (sim) from 1-22-13 to 2-22-13: Percent profitable: 53.19% Profit factor: 2.23 Drawdown: -0.43 Avg winning trade: 0.12% Avg losing trade: -0.07% Avg win/loss ratio: 1.86 can anyone here please figure out the expectancy of my system with the above figures based on Tharpe's teachings? for some reason I cannot figure it out, however, I do know all of my losses are 1R or less.. and most of my winning trades (on avg) are between 2R-3R gain. is my expectancy 1.86? is the avg win/loss ratio the same thing as Tharpe's expectancy rating?
  7. Im finally getting ready to start trading a live acct. I have been studying and learning for about 4 years and I am now ready to go live. I have been fine tuning my system for about 3 months. I will start out trading 1 contract.. (add 1 ct per every $5000 gained). my goal is $2000 net profit, or about 200 net ticks per month. I trade intraday.. TF, CL, GC, and 6J.. I use tick charts...144, 233, and 610. my system is an overall winning sytem, so my question is this: should I trade every set up I see, or trade more conservatively..ie..stay out after I net 20-40 ticks...per day? with this being said, should I stay out if I meet my monthly goals? or keep trading my set-ups evenafter monthly goals are met? I figure if I meet my monthly goal of $2000 per contract per month, then I should stay out, thus limiting my risk even further. just would like to know other traders thoughts on this particular aspect of money management. thanks in advance
  8. ok..just saw the post about BBs..well I must disagree to a slight extent..these are not only to see the squeeze, or the pinch (consolidation)..but IMHO, there is no better indicator of supp/res...other than these bands...(+/-) standard deviation is the ultimate mathematical supp/res indicator..and furthermore.. the BBs also show the SMA.....20 period SMA... the 20/2 BB is near 'perfect' for intraday positions.. ..just sayin..for anyone who is trying to figure out supp/res areas..all you hvta do is look at the appropriate time frame BBs for that.. ..and sorry to get off subject... ..sorry phantom.. just thought I needed to clear this up a bit...I dont want to take away from the important content of this thread...but I do think that many do not undersstand that the BBs are crucial for finding important supp/res price areas...
  9. ..had I taken that sim trade (I was only watching ES at the time this occurred)..I wouldve likey let it run for 70 ticks up...$700 in a 1/2 hour on a single contract! this is what I would call a supreme trade! thanks again, phantom!
  10. just to be clear, when I set my target it wasnt really a relative low...it was near the SMA.. that price occurred around 2:30pm EST..but if the trend continues, which it is as of right now, new target would be at a relative low of the day session. BTW..price is going back down, but I had walk dog, so I missed my entry..
  11. I just hit for another 8 ticks on retracement..barely got in on time though because I was posting here..lol..lets see if it continues downward..
  12. here is another example using phantom's methodology.. this is a consolidation breakout trade... (GC) COMEX GOLD 10 min chart..just made this sim trade for 29 ticks. sometimes gold has some nice moves after 7-8pm EST. the red, full bodied bear candle was my signal.. because the price broke the small consolidation range, and then the preceeding bear hammer which CLOSED below the range was my trigger. I placed my target near a previous 'relative' low from the day session. my risk was also completely taken out of this as well..I moved my stop to break even when I reached 15 ticks..however, this is subjective, and I have no set rules for moving my stop. this could be a nice mini trend, so maybe tonite I will catch a retracement trade and then a continuation back down..
  13. thanks for all the great info and examples, phantom! I was looking back on today's 10 min TF chart a few minutes ago, and I saw what looked like a nice price rejection trade. what do you think, phantom?
  14. is there a margin requirement for futures options? or is it just the amount that one puts up for cost premium of calls and puts? please list any good recourses as well..Im interested in simply speculating...buying and selling calls and puts..and selling and buying..
  15. I would like to swing trade corn futures..where do I begin? larry williams had a great int in the recent stocks and comm mag..very insightful. I would like to hold a contract for about 10-15 days...or until profit target reached. how do I do this on ninja trader? Im used to day trading on much smaller time frame charts like 5 and 10 min. so Im unfamiliar w trading a daily, or weekly chart... as far as putting sell/ buy and stop orders in. what is the best time frame to look at if Im short term swing trading? daily charts? my initial capital only $6000, it is $2360 to hold a corn contract..so is swing trading even feasible w this limimited capital? I will start with only a single contract and hold until target or stop is hit
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