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Gold Bullish or Bearish

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Hello friends,


I get signal for gold and going to share you with.


OLD Forex Signal for Thu, 27 Nov 2014


Open BUY/LONG GOLD at 1201.81

Set Take Profit at 1205.88 / 1211.98 / 1218.09

Set Stop Loss at 1193.67


Open SELL/SHORT GOLD at 1193.67

Set Take Profit at 1189.60 / 1183.50 / 1177.39

Set Stop Loss at 1201.81



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Holiday (Thanksgiving Day) here in the U.S Thursday which means low volume so stops either direction can be taken out easily.


Yes, the incubus at work.


Generally, though, there are not enough committed buyers entering the market. A committed buyer is not someone who sells at the slightest move down or sells because of a lack of movement. A non-committed buyer is neither dumb nor astute; he is simply not committed to the upside.

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Survey Participants Look For Lower Gold Prices Next Week

Friday November 28, 2014


Most participants in Kitco News’ weekly gold survey said they look for softer prices next week since a Swiss gold referendum is expected to fail and the dollar has been strong while crude oil has been soft.


In the Kitco News Gold Survey, out of 36 participants, 19 responded this week -- fewer than usual during the U.S. Thanksgiving week. Five see prices up, while 11 see prices down and three see prices sideways or unchanged. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical-chart analysts.

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Gold is still in the consolidation phase around 1191.15-1221.13. Note the resistance 1221.13 and support at 1191.15. Gold potentially will resume weaken towards the range 1172.63-1142.65 if successfully penetrate the support 1191.15. Beware if gold broke through 1221.13 resistance, because it can open up the possibility of targeting support at 1239.65-1251.11 rose gold.


As I observed in my mercerfx platform, Technically XAUUSD still tend to lead to lower recall is still in a phase of consolidation and remain in the medium term decline groove with its position that until now still under the medium-term declining trend line.

Edited by fxpartyguy

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Split Views On Gold's Direction Next Week Dominate Survey

Friday December 5, 2014


Participants in the weekly Kitco News Gold Survey are split over their views on where prices should go next week, with only a nominal number of respondents bearish.


In the Kitco News Gold Survey, out of 36 participants, 21 responded this week. Seven see prices up, while 10 see prices down and four see prices sideways or unchanged. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical-chart analysts.

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Something on Silver:


Silver Seen Starting Slow, Then Gaining Speed Toward End Of 2015


Silver could struggle in the early part of 2015 as markets continue to factor in expectations for Federal Reserve tightening and as growth in industrial demand remains constrained by soft economies in other parts of the world.


But by the end of the year, many analysts see silver regaining its luster on ideas that any Fed rate hikes are likely to be modest and industrial demand may start picking up, assuming the economy shows improvement.


For instance, TD Securities sees silver averaging $15.50 an ounce in the first quarter but $19.50 in the fourth. Commerzbank looks for the second quarter to be the weakest of the year with an average $16 forecast, but for improvement to $18 in the fourth quarter.


Some of the average full-year 2015 forecasts made by firms so far include Natixis, $15.20; Citi Research, $16.50; Commerzbank, $17; HSBC, $17.65; and TD Securities, $17.81. Among consultancies, Metals Focus looks for $16.20 and CPM Group $16.65.

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To say that gold is in a bear market is to misunderstand both gold and markets. Gold isn’t an investment that goes up and down. It is money in the most basic store-of-value sense. Most of the time it just sits there, and when its price changes in local currency terms that says more about the local currency than about gold.


But when currencies collapse, gold shines.


Consider the above from the point of view of a typical Russian. The ruble is tanking (no need to understand why — all fiat currencies go this way eventually and the proximate cause is almost irrelevant). ...[since ~Nov 15th / in one month - gold has gone from ~52k RUB to ~ 76k RUB .... ] Russians who trusted their government and kept their savings in, say, a bank account, are losing their shirts. But those who own boring, doesn’t-pay-interest, in-a-bear-market gold have seen their capital appreciate in local currency terms by about 60 percent in just the past month. They’re not “making money,” but they are preserving wealth.


This is how it has gone always and everywhere when governments have destroyed their currencies. In the Roman Empire, revolutionary France, revolutionary America, most of Latin America in the 20th century, and now big parts of the developing world, local currencies evaporate but gold just sits there, buying the same amount of stuff as ever, impervious to the games governments play.


It won’t be long before this ...is replicated in a whole lot of other places. But by then it will be too late to prepare. The gold will be gone and those who trusted their governments will have to make do with promises.


We now return you to your regularly scheduled Paper Covers Rock programming

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on the other hand....

is there a currency that gold has been going up in in the last 1-2-5-10 years?


Gold can certainly have a bear market - any one who thinks it cant does not understand markets. If you are based in USD and own USD gold at price X and it is now worth less than X = loss.

It is like any other store of wealth - except it has been better than some over the long term....far worse than others.

the example of the Russian trade is simply an FX trade - not a gold trade.


Everything is a swap!

Eventually we die, just as fiat currencies eventually dwindle. In the meantime......paper scissors doh!


Non-Gold Safe Haven Assets - Business Insider


have a golden Christmas and a diamond new year.

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… the regular programming sure started right back up.


"Gold can certainly have a bear market "

Let's hope so! The stupid stuff has been in a 6000 year bubble :)


"the example of the Russian trade is simply an FX trade - not a gold trade"

actually from a russian's pov, it was not an FX trade, nor a gold trade. It was a 'non trade' that made the example


And to the linked article… here’s a digest

Boys and girls… Swap all the gold you have for something else as quickly as possible. Follow these recommendations from your friends who are paid (and unpaid… voices of trading ) to encourage you to exchange, trade, and swap papers and stuff as much as possible-

> Never come off your ‘investment’ perspective. (really it’s ‘our’ investment perspective - to always measure valuation in terms of fiat and productivity ... to always mentally see and operate as if storing value, investing, and trading are all identical activities - but you best accept it and never question it and make it yours too)


> Best to “swap” ‘it’ into currency. That way you’re primed to "swap" again for something that Buffett isn’t "swapping" for… like safely loan it out at almost usurious rates, or take stakes in companies that now systemically just can’t ever go down in value, or get slick and "swap" this currency for another that is ‘moving’.

…someday maybe use technical and sentiment analysis to accumulate some gold again …


however But - if you want to swap for a more trending ‘store of value’ that is still ‘physical’…


> The following items from the article will hold value. They are indestructible and have no special environmental storage or transport requirements:

Autographs, Stamps, Memorabilia, Wine, Ceramic vases, Vintage cars, Art works, Watches, Guns and ammo. They can all be thrown around and buried in plain dirt. (And speaking of dirt, don't swap for any of that sht either. It's not on the list.)


> List mentions Diamonds. Great choice! Like the other items above you don’t need any special knowledge or experience to swap diamonds cost free…


> The final item on the list, coins, really shouldn’t even be on their list. Why? The first words in the article title were “Forget Gold”


Gold is bearish. ... as in currencies are better ... as in Most don't want it.

Don't be one of the ones who do want it. Forget gold. Gold is bearish... end digest

Edited by zdo

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the regular programming never stopped with the belief that gold is king and there are no alternatives.



....as for the Russian example - please enlighten us as to how to preserve wealth by non trading or swapping :).

The trade mentioned was an FX trade - class 101. The wealth was preserved because the ruble tanked not because gold was a great investment. Anything other than Rubles might have been good.

Diversification is still probably the best wealth preserver but most of us dont have 6000 years. :doh:


2 other thoughts...


1) I like the Walking dead (more for the moral dilemmas it raises) - why dont these guys talk about their store of gold. Even experts in Zombie apocalypses dont put all their belief in gold.


2) Given its Christmas - what happened to the gold the baby Jesus got on his birth?

Edited by SIUYA

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Clarificaton of my msg - ie more off topic repetition

The message is simple. Each person needs to differentiate for self between trading, investing, and wealth preservation. Check the narrative in your posts. It acutely mishmash conflates all three of them.


The “Regular programming” in here on this TL thread is traders / “swappers” doing their TA and sentiment thang. I am first and foremost a trader so I have nothing against it and trading paper PM’s… except in most times there are contracts that provide more bang for the buck…except ‘trading’ it based on the background collective memehope that it will again go especially parabolic ‘works’ only 1 in 30 times it is ‘predicted’…


Culturally, typical ‘regular programming’ is MSMs doing anything but ‘gold buggin’ … they never stop sabotaging beliefs that gold might possibly be king. They never stop promoting alternatives. They mish PM’s into the ‘investments’ category - ignoring that investments must be productive. In your MSM supportive story, since 19xx or 20xx, it has even performed horribly against all other assets and other “fx trades”. On one front is a narrative to sustain the false dialectics of paper bugs vs gold bugs. It promotes “swapping” as fast as possible to discourage ‘investing’ in gold as a vote of no confidence in cash producing businesses… programming you to diversify as much as possible into paper debt tickets of an insolvent global private banking corporation whose only saving grace is the ability to create more paper debt tickets at will and without supervision. In this “Regular programming” meme, ‘gold’ can be nothing but price sensitive. … for the record, I never ‘invest’ in PM’s.


In uncontaminated ‘preservation of capital’, one’s perspective is NOT price sensitive - period. Again, each person needs to clearly demarcate for him or her self between trading, investing, and wealth preservation. As gold only goes parabolic 1 in 30 times it is predicted to, even more rarely - ~ 1 in 300 times? - that it is ‘predicted’ , the system eventually does an‘ accounting’ of financialization - with an inevitable and very rare transfer of wealth to the people that own gold and silver. Who knows? and Who knows when? Prior to that - - PMs may even become a useless relic - especially on ‘spiritual’ levels… then suddenly .,. like “There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.” Vladimir Ilich Lenin * BANG !! Enough ( off topic ) said. I only post in this thread to encourage those coming behind me to make those stark demarcations for themselves... We now return you to your regularly scheduled programming replete with its confirmation and conservation biases to continuity and business as usual… meanwhile scissors cut your paper at a non alarming target of 2% per year … compounded… etc



Re: “zombies”

Physical Gold is about preservation of capital for light, life, and growth… no surprise zombies and their potential targets have no apparent access to or utility for it in their stories. “When an inner situation is not made conscious, it appears outside of you as fate.” CG Jung


Re: "baby Jesus’s gold" - Joseph diversified most of it into shekels for groceries. He later sold the rest to put Jesus through carpenter college. Like most messiahs, Jesus never releases his transcripts… there are whispers that he dropped out.

Jesus was a Capricorn

He ate organic food

He believed in love and peace

And never wore no shoes

Long hair, beard and sandals

And a funky bunch of friends

Reckon we'd just nail him up

If he came down again

Most of us hate anything that

We don't understand

Prine? Kristoferson?


* while we’re on quotes of (a)typical Russians and their "FX trades"

Vladimir Lenin Quotes - BrainyQuote

Joseph Stalin Quotes - BrainyQuote


SIUYA, Hope you (and everyone else too) have wonderful winter holidays

Edited by zdo

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Saxo Bank See Gold Ending 2015 On A Strong Note

Wednesday December 24, 2014



Gold could be set for a strong breakout in the second half of 2015 as a year of consolidation wraps up said one European commodity analyst.


Saxo Bank is still working on their 2015 annual forecasts but Kitco News spoke with Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategist for the Danish bank to get his preliminary thoughts on the gold market for 2015.


“Major investing firms are still lukewarm on gold,” he said. “But I would be cautious about being too much on the negative bandwagon.”



Ole Hansen, head of commodity research at Saxo Bank

A last minute drive in equity markets is helping to drag gold prices down and it appears the yellow metal will end the year on a softer note. However, because of the current holiday market conditions, Hansen said investors will have to wait until after the first couple of weeks in January to get a clear direction for the gold market at least in the near-term.


Hansen is slightly more optimistic on the gold market for 2015 compared to other analysts as he thinks the yellow metal could end next year around $1,250. But it won’t be a definitive move higher, at least in the first few months of the year; in the short-term, it appears prices will struggle and might even break below the 2014 lows, he said.


Hansen said that for the start of the year he could see gold prices fall to $1,100 or even $1,080 an ounce as the U.S. dollar continues to dominate the marketplace and investors adjust to normalized U.S. interest rates.

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Gold was a "fear play" before this last run up of the market these past 2 years.


Then it turned into an investment, strangely and tracked the market upwards, only to drop this last year (2014) I think Gold is reversing its "personality" again to become a fear play, the market is doubtlessly heading into a correction, we'll see how gold reacts, if its a crash then drop it. If its a haven where people put their money, invest and its going to runup again, probably surpassing the highs of the past few years.

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"...probably surpassing the highs of the past few years."


Based on what, wishful thinking?


Price matters, not opinions.


Gold has been bearish, other than on a very short term basis, since fall of 2011.


Through prior equity corrections,


Now with the Euro (EZ economies) and Crude collapsing further strengthening the Dollar this pressures Gold and Silver even more.


The chart and fundamentals point lower. This is reality, not my opinion.

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Analysts Expect Gold Market To Hold Recent Gains Next Week

Friday January 9, 2015


U.S. economic data next week is not expected to shed any new light on the state of the economy and as a result gold prices should at least hold on to their gains after the first full week of trading in 2015, according to some analysts.


Analysts added that continued focus on the European Central Bank’s monetary policy, concerns about the impending Greek elections and geopolitical fears should continue to support the yellow metal in the near-term.

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