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Market Wizard
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  1. forget about small traders....they make up such a small percentage of the market its ridiculous. Then you get into the world of of smart beta, factor investing and outperformance, active v passive investing and you will see the worry about 95% of the retail money that is lost in the markets is 0.000001% and irrelevant....and the money disappears into the closed shop that is the world economy and if it wasnt for growing populations and inflation and growth of tech etc; we would simply be transferring it from person to person....but its bigger than that. if you look at it from a different angle (and this has been rehashed time and time again) its a numbers game of only a few survive and thrive in any industry, and that may be to luck, timing, skill or shear who knows what. All the money ends up in the hands of those who either know how to extract just enough via arbitrage, or they know when to get out, or they extract enough for their size they are exploiting their advantages of being small and nimble and not having to trade. Even the great traders usually know that when makrets get tough they should get out for fear that when the tide goes out they dont want to be exposed if you hang around long enough. Haha....cynical I know.
  2. when I read this I had a laugh and googled "images for people on camera phones" Nothing funnier than watching people film something they are watching live, rather than experiencing it. Maybe I am old school....buy the DVD for later and enjoy the moment...... but often we choose not to think about what is happening around us.
  3. only if you want to trade for losses. I know your choices here are between taking a trade and regretting it or not..(hindisght is bitch).....but unless you thoroughly record every potential trade including those not taken (and this cant be trusted in hindsight) you have no idea about which ones becomes 'bad; or 'average' trades. You say "So in order to eliminate the average ones I ask myself Am I willing to lose on this trade? " Every trade you take you are deciding to risk a loss. That is a given. As you have a 'system' and within this system a measure of discretion....ie;.you chose to take or not to take certain trades and the fact you have profit targets also indicates you have thought about what this trade might expect to make (or is this some random element?) so --- as an alternative to simply asking --- am I willing to lose on this trade, you could also (or alternatively ask) is this trade good enough in its idea that i would be willing to lose multiple times, BECAUSE there is enough profitable reason for the trade. as you say... "If you are not preparing yourself to the possible outcomes you are illusioning yourself in more than a way"
  4. alternatively, work out how much you think you should make on the trade, and if its worth risking a loss multiple times on the same trade. This might give you more insight into why you want to enter in the first place. Otherwise you will simply still take the losses and not make enough back to cover those.
  5. heard on TV the other day.... when someone tells you how disappointed they are in something ....tell them it could be worse. You could have the disappointment of being an egg. . . . . You only get laid once, You only get smashed once and the only one who ever sits on your face is your mother.
  6. today its my wife! Yesterday she claimed it was me. ...............more seriously. I think its a recurring problem in world history but I think this reverberates across a lot of issue these days and is getting worse. (it could arguably be applied to politics, religion, personal life...etc) The issue boils down to one of shifting risk and not taking responsibility. This is largely a result of corporatisation (and dont worry I am a capitalist also) and the the fact that now you have corporates that have more rights than individuals, more power than governments, individuals within the companies that have little personal responsibility, get paid for failure and basically have to answer to few people.....I could go on, but I think you get the message....and yet I dont advocate govt doing a better job. No accountability. This has resulted in compliance gone crazy and everyone who can writing 50 page legal documents saying all care no responsibility and f..k you if it goes wrong because ultimately some other sucker will end up paying. (not sure where this rant is going as i am enjoying the day , but this is an issue I am seeing more and more these days. Maybe I should just join the boat...anyone wanna buy a bridge?:rofl:)
  7. No - I am living in Europe now. (worlds greatest feminist - moved for my wifes job) Sorry to have missed you it would be good to meet in person....show you the harbour and go for a cold refreshing ale. If you like walks and have the time - I recommend Bondi to Bronte..something I miss. Re books, it sounds similar to something I have just re read "the righteous mind: Why good people are divided...." by Haidt. Talks about the elephant/rider = emotion/reason divide. (but more a focus on 'morals'..... a good reminder. As I get older I get more contemplative as well as cynical. but its all related.,,,and back on topic it does make you understand why one person can feel bullish and the other bearish even when looking at the same thing.....gut feel maybe and then we apply reason.
  8. I dont know about smell idea except the 'he just shit/pissed himself" or the "I am going to retch in a bucket"......but it probably has some creedence. However given we generally use our sight and gut reaction first it might have just been a fart. As to reducing the amount of crashes.....nope. computers might not smell or hear fear but they certainly react. ala.....2008, flash crash etc; more they change the more they stay the same.
  9. 100% correct. even " " " professionals " " " often dont get this or deliberately choose to ignore it. read black swan, infallibility, when genius failed - get it or ignore it.
  10. I just figured any one of my answers could be used to answer any of the questions....sheer coincidence there was 5 answers and 6 questions (or was it spooky mulder, or the SNB who caused that outlier).
  11. fly fishing or golf. neither is a team sport or has an opponent (and if you count a fish as an opponent then you best not try trading):doh:, and they are totally rigged against you.
  12. an autobot. the 'man' the global elite aliens all of the above.
  13. Interesting distinction between PM and traders..... there is certainly a lot of difference between those who make portfolio decisions, those who execute for PMs (I dont count this as trading though many pretend it is), those who trade for a firms capital, those who trade for themselves, those who invest for themselves, market makers and HFT who take an edge, or other 'traders' who have an inbuilt edge either via order flow, high fees etc. As for Oz - been a while since I was back there working so it might be different in some firms now however, there was all sorts (relaxed, aggressive etc) , idiots, dreamers, realists, managers who had unrealistic expectations....usually not as aggressive as maybe Wall st as most Americans in NY can come across as pretty agro normally compared to some. Part of the winner takes all Americans have maybe (too many generalisations I know):doh:
  14. too many variables and not enough specifics to work this one out apart from saying - develop something (a plan) that will only trade one direction on your scenarios.....ensure that when you are wrong you dont get too bably burnt, but when you are right you maximise the upside form it. Reason being - the markets will stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.....and if like me you believe you cant predict the future, most of it is simply luck and being in the right place at the right time (think CHF yesterday), then 50 year predictions are for the strategists....not the traders. as to how to invest.....if you think these things will trend - invest in aggressive trend following funds, or try and time it with long options (extra leverage, a stop loss) or optional investments related tot he idea. eg extreme oil shortages.....buy weapons manufacturers. For black swans - good luck......
  15. Oilfx why not place an add Wanted - 30 babies for a trading experiment. Come back in 30 years to see if it worked. (you might become a rich parent) ..................... Rande - was the firm on wall st you visited a market maker or HFT with the aim to win on every trade - or simply trying to instill a competitive and darwinistic mindset.....which I dont think works well when day trading (unless it about gaming others and being competitive and fighting others for the edge of HFT or market making)?
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