Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

mohsinqureshii

Gold Bullish or Bearish

Recommended Posts

gold made a major break down on the 4 hr chart,with a downtrend daily chart,now i doubt if it can go up to 1310 before seeing 1260

Why 1260?

 

It is forming a nearly symmetrical triangle on a daily chart. Triangles can be reversals from an existing trend or a continuation of an existing trend. The odds favor, ever so slightly, the latter. The daily trend since first part of June has been up except for the larger pullback a few days ago. Why do you think it will break south? Is it because in the larger context of things it has been going sideways since april with the trend up from june being a leg in this sideways PA?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hi Sun Trader

I note you are using wave analysis

And the trend is DOWN

Do you actually have a position open, and if so , do you hold through the draw down.?

Or are you trading off the levels?

regards

bobc

Sorry Bob just getting back to you but "its been crazy lately". In a good way. :)

 

Anyway I previously had a short entered during day of wide range down bar 7/14/14, exited after 1) 50% retrace of up move and 2) then high of narrow range bar 7/16/14 was exceeded following day 7/17/14.

 

Currently I am back short from 7/18/14 after 61.8% retracement of down move and a second short after 1299.50 level (see chart) was broken as well as wedge, pennant, flag, triangle or whatever the freak a labeler wants to call it. :crap:

 

On a daily chart we are presently in minor wave 3 of 5 of Wave 3 of a major Wave 5. So a ways more down to go. See chart for price targets for current minor wave 3 - typical 1272-1271 - maximum 1240-1239 - as always if I am right and Mr. Elliott cooperates.

 

Stop out 1301, lower as it goes lower.

5aa7122ec3a8e_wave3of3of5.thumb.png.e40a493d917deca626bfd90adef34d7c.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Sorry Bob just getting back to you but "its been crazy lately". In a good way. :)

 

Anyway I previously had a short entered during day of wide range down bar 7/14/14, exited after 1) 50% retrace of up move and 2) then high of narrow range bar 7/16/14 was exceeded following day 7/17/14.

 

Currently I am back short from 7/18/14 after 61.8% retracement of down move and a second short after 1299.50 level (see chart) was broken as well as wedge, pennant, flag, triangle or whatever the freak a labeler wants to call it. :crap:

 

On a daily chart we are presently in minor wave 3 of 5 of Wave 3 of a major Wave 5. So a ways more down to go. See chart for price targets for current minor wave 3 - typical 1272-1271 - maximum 1240-1239 - as always if I am right and Mr. Elliott cooperates.

 

Stop out 1301, lower as it goes lower.

 

Hi SunTrader,

 

This is a very good answer...... and I can see you trade with Fibs.

I personally have no faith in Mr Elliot. But to each his own .:roll eyes:

 

I have found a much easier market to trade......soybean.

It has momentum, clear levels and is not quite so "rigged" ( Expect a comment here)

When you get a chance,please apply your EW theory and post a chart on Soy.:offtopic:

Just to give me an idea. It does not have to be very accurate .:missy:

Its sideways at the moment, but bearish.:confused::confused:

Kind regards

bobc

PS. I know you are busy, so there is no hurry. Sunday will be fine.:):):):)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It broke south out of the triangle. However most breakouts fail. Odds favor a retest of the triangle apex. Then from that point it could go either way....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have found a much easier market to trade......soybean.

It has momentum, clear levels and is not quite so "rigged"

When you get a chance,please apply your EW theory and post a chart on Soy

Just to give me an idea. It does not have to be very accurate .

Its sideways at the moment, but bearish...

Assume you are looking at Sept'14 contract. If so, agree it is bearish but think it might have more short term upside.

 

I see increasing volume on down days as opposed to the few up days lately. Also increasing overall open interest. Now as far as EW it looks like it has made a wave 3 bottom and close to or already finished a wave 4 top. Wave 4 being similar in price and time to wave 2. As you can see I am not real confident on this since soybeans are not a market I ordinarily look at. HTH

Beans.thumb.png.a6edcb9c19494aa374a0dbdbb392cec9.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thank you SunTrader,

You are a good man. (better than Patuca);)

Your application of EW is a lot different from mine.You are including the small swings as LEGS. I ignore them.I need some more lessons :missy:

One last question.

You show horizontal red lines on both your GOLD chart (post 1428) and your SOY chart.They are not drawn at swing points. What are they for? :confused: Are they Fib levels?

Kind regards

bobc

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You show horizontal red lines on both your GOLD chart (post 1428) and your SOY chart.They are not drawn at swing points. What are they for? :confused: Are they Fib levels?

They are IMO true support and resistance levels. Something I re-discovered recently, that I came across years ago, called trending candle body reversal.

 

Defined as a bar where the open-close range is greater than at least 50% of its truehigh-truelow range, so gaps have to be considered. The open of a trending candle is then the level to watch.

 

Here is another example XAU H4. Wicks are less important - where subsequent bar closes are in relation to the levels is the key:

Levels.thumb.png.f181ceb22c866af93e9915fea9e10e9d.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
It broke south out of the triangle. However most breakouts fail. Odds favor a retest of the triangle apex. Then from that point it could go either way....
retest done..now wait an see....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Up 120pips from early hrs on Friday and dont seem to be going down yet. Loads of data scheduled for the coming week. Expecting more upside from gold this week.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Survey Participants Split On Gold Prices Next Week

Participants in the Kitco News’ weekly gold survey are split on their view for the direction of prices next week, although half look for weakness while the other half was divided between the bullish and neutral camps.

 

Out of 37 participants, 24 responded this week. Twelve said they see prices down, while eight see prices up and four see prices sideways or unchanged. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical-chart analysts.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Survey Participants Split On Gold Prices Next Week

Participants in the Kitco News’ weekly gold survey are split on their view for the direction of prices next week, although half look for weakness while the other half was divided between the bullish and neutral camps.

 

Out of 37 participants, 24 responded this week. Twelve said they see prices down, while eight see prices up and four see prices sideways or unchanged. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical-chart analysts.

For next week, at least first part of next week, odds highly favor UP. Wedge bottom.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I had a side intraday trade...very similar 1291 to 1285 (on the first bounce)... Now have sell limits set between 1287-88.
why? Odds favored a move up off wedge bottom.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
For next week, at least first part of next week, odds highly favor UP. Wedge bottom.

Well now..well now...which way do i turn my charts? I think it went up....

Edited by Patuca

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Strong Majority Of Gold Survey Participants See Higher Prices Next Week

Simmering geopolitical concerns have the majority of participants in the weekly Kitco News Gold Survey forecasting higher prices for next week.

 

Out of 37 participants, 27 responded this week. Of those, 18 see higher prices, six see lower prices and three see prices trading sideways or are neutral. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical-chart analysts.

 

Last week, survey participants were nominally bearish for this week. As of 11:30 a.m. EDT, Comex December gold was up about $17 for the week.

 

With the tensions in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict rising again this week, an end to a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas and U.S. airstrikes on militants in Iraq, most survey participants said they were expected gold to remain supported. Technical charts also appear to show rising prices.

 

Colin Cieszynski, senior market strategist at CMC Markets, said with gold back over $1,300 an ounce, technical charts showing are turning positive, with a series of higher lows and rising momentum, he said. Gold “has room to run if it can get through $1,322. On the fundamental side, Europe’s economy (is) weak and sanctions (are) not helping. (That) means growing pressure on (the) European Central Bank to do even more stimulus, which had boosted gold in the past. Political flare-ups in any number of places like Ukraine, Iraq, West Africa, Gaza, Libya and more could send capital fleeing into defensive havens at any time and keep trading active,” he said.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Strong Majority Of Gold Survey Participants See Higher Prices Next Week

Simmering geopolitical concerns have the majority of participants in the weekly Kitco News Gold Survey forecasting higher prices for next week.

 

Out of 37 participants, 27 responded this week. Of those, 18 see higher prices, six see lower prices and three see prices trading sideways or are neutral. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical-chart analysts.

 

Last week, survey participants were nominally bearish for this week. As of 11:30 a.m. EDT, Comex December gold was up about $17 for the week.

 

With the tensions in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict rising again this week, an end to a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas and U.S. airstrikes on militants in Iraq, most survey participants said they were expected gold to remain supported. Technical charts also appear to show rising prices.

 

Colin Cieszynski, senior market strategist at CMC Markets, said with gold back over $1,300 an ounce, technical charts showing are turning positive, with a series of higher lows and rising momentum, he said. Gold “has room to run if it can get through $1,322. On the fundamental side, Europe’s economy (is) weak and sanctions (are) not helping. (That) means growing pressure on (the) European Central Bank to do even more stimulus, which had boosted gold in the past. Political flare-ups in any number of places like Ukraine, Iraq, West Africa, Gaza, Libya and more could send capital fleeing into defensive havens at any time and keep trading active,” he said.

odds favor a lower low being made next session thus a possible shorting opportunity. However, if not made rather early in the session and prices start back up then a long opportunity could present itself.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date : 14th October 2019. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 14th October 2019.No-deal Brexit risks are looking more real than ever, with reports suggesting that talks will officially break down this week ahead of the upcoming EU summit on 17 and 18 October. Elsewhere, further US data and Fedspeak could provide more clues about the possibility of a Fed rate cut. Tuesday – 15 October 2019 Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – September’s Chinese CPI is seen unchanged at 0.7% while the PPI figure is expected to decline further to -1.2%. The overall reading for CPI is estimated to post a gain up to 2.9% y/y. ILO & Average Earnings Index 3m/y (GBP, GMT 08:30) – UK Earnings with the bonus-excluded figure are expected to slip to 3.7% y/y in the three months to August, down from 3.8%y/y. UK ILO unemployment is expected steady at 3.8%, which was the lowest rate seen since December 1974. ZEW Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Economic Sentiment for October is projected at -27 from the -22.5 seen last month, as the current conditions indicator for Germany turned negative. The overall Eurozone reading though expected to declne further to -33.0 slightly from -22.4. A lower than expected outcome, ties in with the stagnation in market sentiment at the start of the month. Consumer Price Index (NZD, GMT 21:45) – One of the most important figures for FX markets, the y/y CPI for Q3 is expected to come out at 1.4%, compared to 1.7% in the previous quarter. Wednesday – 16 October 2019 Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The UK CPI is expected to rebound to a 1.8% y/y rate in September after dipping to 1.7% in August from 2.1% in July. Weakness in sterling from year-go levels should impact some offset to disinflationary forces. Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The Euro Area CPI is expected to be confirmed at just 0.9% y/y in the final release for September, although the deceleration in the headline rate over the month was largely due to base effects from energy prices, with core inflation actually moving up to 1.0% y/y from 0.9% y/y in August. Consumer Price Index (CAD, GMT 12:30) – The Canadian CPI index is expected to have increased to 2%y/y compared to 1.9%y/y in August. The core CPI measures remained near 2.0%. Retail Sales (USD, GMT 12:30) – Retail Sales are an important determinant of consumer spending thus making it a leading indicator for overall economic growth. Consensus expectations suggest that we should have increased by 0.2% in September, for both the retail sales headline and the ex-auto figure, following a 0.4% August headline rise with a flat ex-auto figure. Fedspeak: Fed Brainard (USD, GMT 19:00) Thursday – 17 October 2019 European Council Summit on Brexit Employment Data (AUD, GMT 01:30) – While the Unemployment Rate is projected to have flipped at 5.3% in September, Employment change is expected to have eased, increasing by 10K compared to 34.7K last month. Retail Sales ex Fuel (GBP, GMT 08:30) – Retail Sales in the UK are anticipated to increase in September, reaching 3.0% on a y/y basis, and 0.5% on a m/m basis, from the 2.7% and -0.2% respectively Housing Data and Building Permits (USD, GMT 12:30) – Housing starts should drop back to a 1.282 mln pace in September, after a sharp rise to a 1.364 mln clip in August with the help of lower mortgage rates. Permits similarly are expected to slow to 1.370 mln in September, after popping to 1.425 mln in September. Permits have shown a solid growth path into Q3 despite a July starts set-back. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (USD, GMT 12:30) – The Philly Fed index is seen falling to 7.0 from 12.0 in September, versus a 1-year high of 21.8 in July and a 33-month low of -4.1 in February. The late-September producer sentiment surveys deteriorated significantly after firmness in the early-September reports, and the early-October data will be closely scrutinized to see if this pull-back continued. The “soft data” surveys are at risk of a possible impact from the UAW-GM strike, alongside the ongoing headwind from troubles abroad. Fedspeak: Fed Bowman and Fed Williams (USD, GMT 18:00 and 20:20) Friday – 18 October 2019 European Council Summit on Brexit China Gross Domestic Product (CNY, GMT 02:00)- Chinese GDP is projected to see additional moderation to a 6.1% y/y pace in Q3, from 6.2% in Q2. Industrial Production and Retail Sales (CNY, GMT 02:00) – The September industrial production is forecast at 4.5% y/y from 4.4% previously, while September retail sales likely improved to 7.7% y/y from 7.5%. Fedspeak: Fed Kaplan and Fed Clarida (USD, GMT 15:00 and 15:30) Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • This should really be very easy, but I can't find an article or video to walk me through it. I picked 20 ticker symbols where the stocks are in a tight trading range. I got them all into one list I call "Channel". I'd like to add several indicators that apply to all, such as MACD, volume, 3 moving averages. Then I'd like to scroll through the list, adding trendlines, or horizontal lines to mark the top & bottom of the price channel for each. Then set an alarm for a breakout in each direction that indicates a breakout. Could you point me to an article or video that walks me through how to do this? ...or give me the steps? Thank you, RichardV2, Experienced stock trader back before the Internet was invented.😁
    • The Economic Proscription of U.S. Farmers by China Maybe Forever   Similar to a black eye on the face, it’s placing an indelible imprint. The retaliatory levies by China over U.S. commodity producers, such as soybeans, which seem to be forever. The moment such happens for the market it becomes irreversible.   It’s a dread numerous farmers from North Dakota to Mississippi have recognized for as far back as last year. They worry that they’ve put millions in soybean development on account of China. Since Chinese focus is now transferred towards Brazil rather, that market might be gone forever.   Once the confidence merchants have in the U.S. declines as a steady provider because of the trade dispute, the more vital its important for them to support and further broaden other avenues.   The developing danger for American agribusiness presently is that a great part of the piece of the overall industry lost throughout the year will be hard or difficult to win back at any point shortly, the Boston Consulting Group said in a detailed analysis discharged on Wednesday.   This is for the most part because of long term contracts that are regularly recorded among purchasers and sellers, contingent upon the item. The lesson from the analysis shows that U.S. farmers need to turn out to be less reliant on China, and simply trust in the best concerning those customers organizing a rebound sooner or later.   For the time being, China is going to Australia, Brazil, New Zealand, Russia, and also for its domestic producers as an option in contrast to American developed crops and animal proteins.   From the detailed analysis: “The risk that U.S. agribusinesses may for all time lose foreign market share of the overall industry isn’t only hypothetical. In past trade disputes, for example, one with China including beef, the US has not recaptured its lost share. As a result of the increase of U.S. crops and food materials more costly than other choices, high duties bring down the price to merchants who plan to expand. Also, the fewer confidence merchants have in the US as a steady provider, in perspective on the potential for future trade disputes, the more important it progresses toward becoming for them to support and further expand. After some time, merchants could loosen up complex associations with suppliers from the U.S.”   China Receives Blames for the Pressure And this is so because China is important to American farmers. China purchased $19.5 billion in U.S. agricultural items as of 2017, representing 14% of exports of farm produce, in light of BCS analysis. In July 2018, China slammed a 25% levy on U.S. agricultural items.   Exports at that point declined by an incredible 53% for the year. While exports to China have declined also for this year, over past years free fall.   There is another motivation behind why some China customers may not come back to the U.S. China is extending its very own crop acreage, particularly for soybeans. After some time, China will turn out to be progressively independent. Except if request increases generously, China will purchase its very own soybeans, regulating export development and under control in any case.   “Individuals in the business were in a condition of cheerfulness, believing that a bargain would soon be reached,” says Michael McAdoo, associate, and related executive for BCS in Montreal. “Our analysis demonstrates that regardless of whether there is a bargain, there is worry that a similar volume won’t return. They need to try different markets,” he declared.   Source: https://learn2.trade 
    • Trade Dispute Responsible for China’s Overwhelming Gold Purchase Rate   China has included more than 100 tons of gold to its stores since it continued purchasing in December, fortifying its position as one of the significant authority collectors as national banks load up on the valuable metal.   The People’s Bank of China grabbed progressively gold a month ago, raising reserves to 62.64 million ounces in September from 62.45 million in August, as per information on its site. In tonnage terms, the most recent inflow sums 5.9 tons and comes in as an expansion of about 99.8 tons over the earlier nine months.   Bullion hit the most noteworthy in over six years in September as more slow development, the trade dispute and rate reductions prodded financial specialist request. National banks have been significant purchasers as well, particularly in developing markets. Administrative demands will probably proceed as protectionist strategies and geopolitical concerns add to the request, as forecasted by Suki Cooper, the valuable metals investigator at Standard Chartered Bank.   “With the stressed partnerships with the U.S., China requires support against its enormous possessions of the dollar, and gold serves that capacity,” said Howie Lee, a financial specialist at Singapore-based Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. “As China turns into a superpower in its very own right, I anticipate progressively gold-purchases.”   China’s High Gold Appetite The PBOC’s continuos running of bullion-purchasing has come against the difficult setting of the trade dispute with the U.S. furthermore, a stamped lull in development at home. While high-level discussions are set to continue in Washington this week, Chinese authorities are flagging they’re progressively hesitant to consent to an expansive bargain.   Spot gold spiked to as much as 0.4% to $1,511.31 an ounce on Monday and exchanged at $1,505.84 in early London exchange. While the value declined 3.2% in September, they remain high at 17% this year. The PBOC information was discharged at the end of the week. Alongside China, Russia has additionally been including generous amounts of bullion. In the initial half-year, national banks overall got 374.1 tons, supporting the overall gold request to a three-year high, the World Gold Council declared.   While a tenth straight month of amassing, shows an unfaltering purchasing trend for the PBOC, China has in the past gone for significant stretches without uncovering moves for its gold possessions. At the point the national bank declared a 57% bounce in savings to 53.3 million ounces in mid-2015, that was the first update in quite a while.   Source: https://learn2.trade   
    • GBPJPY Reverses Its Sell-Off Around the Level at 130.75  OCTOBER 9, 2019  Azeez Mustapha  No Comments   GBPJPY Price Analysis – October 9 In the prior session, the pair closed lower for the second day in a row, but currently, the GBPJPY displays a weakness further downside of the pair while retaining its wider medium-term outlook by temporal reversal on the level at 130.75.   Key Levels Resistance Levels: 148.66, 137.80, 135.774 Support Levels: 130.75, 128.68, 126.54   GBPJPY Long term Trend: Bearish In the bigger picture, the GBPJPY consolidation structure is still forming from the technical support zone on the level at 126.54 low.   A further upward move may be recorded towards the level at 146.57 and 148.66 in an extension where its resistance is glaring before completing the structure. However, the overall trend remains bearish while displaying an intact downtrend in the medium and long-term.   GBPJPY Short term Trend: Bearish On the 4-hour time frame, its price is trading narrowly between the moving average 5 and 13 close to the key technical support level at 130.44.   As it is presently, the intraday bias in GBPJPY remains on the downside at this point where a corrective rebound from the level at 126.54 low should have completed. Meanwhile, its 4-hour RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further weakness.   Source: https://learn2.trade 
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.