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mohsinqureshii

Gold Bullish or Bearish

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gold made a major break down on the 4 hr chart,with a downtrend daily chart,now i doubt if it can go up to 1310 before seeing 1260

Why 1260?

 

It is forming a nearly symmetrical triangle on a daily chart. Triangles can be reversals from an existing trend or a continuation of an existing trend. The odds favor, ever so slightly, the latter. The daily trend since first part of June has been up except for the larger pullback a few days ago. Why do you think it will break south? Is it because in the larger context of things it has been going sideways since april with the trend up from june being a leg in this sideways PA?

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Hi Sun Trader

I note you are using wave analysis

And the trend is DOWN

Do you actually have a position open, and if so , do you hold through the draw down.?

Or are you trading off the levels?

regards

bobc

Sorry Bob just getting back to you but "its been crazy lately". In a good way. :)

 

Anyway I previously had a short entered during day of wide range down bar 7/14/14, exited after 1) 50% retrace of up move and 2) then high of narrow range bar 7/16/14 was exceeded following day 7/17/14.

 

Currently I am back short from 7/18/14 after 61.8% retracement of down move and a second short after 1299.50 level (see chart) was broken as well as wedge, pennant, flag, triangle or whatever the freak a labeler wants to call it. :crap:

 

On a daily chart we are presently in minor wave 3 of 5 of Wave 3 of a major Wave 5. So a ways more down to go. See chart for price targets for current minor wave 3 - typical 1272-1271 - maximum 1240-1239 - as always if I am right and Mr. Elliott cooperates.

 

Stop out 1301, lower as it goes lower.

5aa7122ec3a8e_wave3of3of5.thumb.png.e40a493d917deca626bfd90adef34d7c.png

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Sorry Bob just getting back to you but "its been crazy lately". In a good way. :)

 

Anyway I previously had a short entered during day of wide range down bar 7/14/14, exited after 1) 50% retrace of up move and 2) then high of narrow range bar 7/16/14 was exceeded following day 7/17/14.

 

Currently I am back short from 7/18/14 after 61.8% retracement of down move and a second short after 1299.50 level (see chart) was broken as well as wedge, pennant, flag, triangle or whatever the freak a labeler wants to call it. :crap:

 

On a daily chart we are presently in minor wave 3 of 5 of Wave 3 of a major Wave 5. So a ways more down to go. See chart for price targets for current minor wave 3 - typical 1272-1271 - maximum 1240-1239 - as always if I am right and Mr. Elliott cooperates.

 

Stop out 1301, lower as it goes lower.

 

Hi SunTrader,

 

This is a very good answer...... and I can see you trade with Fibs.

I personally have no faith in Mr Elliot. But to each his own .:roll eyes:

 

I have found a much easier market to trade......soybean.

It has momentum, clear levels and is not quite so "rigged" ( Expect a comment here)

When you get a chance,please apply your EW theory and post a chart on Soy.:offtopic:

Just to give me an idea. It does not have to be very accurate .:missy:

Its sideways at the moment, but bearish.:confused::confused:

Kind regards

bobc

PS. I know you are busy, so there is no hurry. Sunday will be fine.:):):):)

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It broke south out of the triangle. However most breakouts fail. Odds favor a retest of the triangle apex. Then from that point it could go either way....

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I have found a much easier market to trade......soybean.

It has momentum, clear levels and is not quite so "rigged"

When you get a chance,please apply your EW theory and post a chart on Soy

Just to give me an idea. It does not have to be very accurate .

Its sideways at the moment, but bearish...

Assume you are looking at Sept'14 contract. If so, agree it is bearish but think it might have more short term upside.

 

I see increasing volume on down days as opposed to the few up days lately. Also increasing overall open interest. Now as far as EW it looks like it has made a wave 3 bottom and close to or already finished a wave 4 top. Wave 4 being similar in price and time to wave 2. As you can see I am not real confident on this since soybeans are not a market I ordinarily look at. HTH

Beans.thumb.png.a6edcb9c19494aa374a0dbdbb392cec9.png

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Thank you SunTrader,

You are a good man. (better than Patuca);)

Your application of EW is a lot different from mine.You are including the small swings as LEGS. I ignore them.I need some more lessons :missy:

One last question.

You show horizontal red lines on both your GOLD chart (post 1428) and your SOY chart.They are not drawn at swing points. What are they for? :confused: Are they Fib levels?

Kind regards

bobc

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You show horizontal red lines on both your GOLD chart (post 1428) and your SOY chart.They are not drawn at swing points. What are they for? :confused: Are they Fib levels?

They are IMO true support and resistance levels. Something I re-discovered recently, that I came across years ago, called trending candle body reversal.

 

Defined as a bar where the open-close range is greater than at least 50% of its truehigh-truelow range, so gaps have to be considered. The open of a trending candle is then the level to watch.

 

Here is another example XAU H4. Wicks are less important - where subsequent bar closes are in relation to the levels is the key:

Levels.thumb.png.f181ceb22c866af93e9915fea9e10e9d.png

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It broke south out of the triangle. However most breakouts fail. Odds favor a retest of the triangle apex. Then from that point it could go either way....
retest done..now wait an see....

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Up 120pips from early hrs on Friday and dont seem to be going down yet. Loads of data scheduled for the coming week. Expecting more upside from gold this week.

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Survey Participants Split On Gold Prices Next Week

Participants in the Kitco News’ weekly gold survey are split on their view for the direction of prices next week, although half look for weakness while the other half was divided between the bullish and neutral camps.

 

Out of 37 participants, 24 responded this week. Twelve said they see prices down, while eight see prices up and four see prices sideways or unchanged. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical-chart analysts.

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Survey Participants Split On Gold Prices Next Week

Participants in the Kitco News’ weekly gold survey are split on their view for the direction of prices next week, although half look for weakness while the other half was divided between the bullish and neutral camps.

 

Out of 37 participants, 24 responded this week. Twelve said they see prices down, while eight see prices up and four see prices sideways or unchanged. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical-chart analysts.

For next week, at least first part of next week, odds highly favor UP. Wedge bottom.

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I had a side intraday trade...very similar 1291 to 1285 (on the first bounce)... Now have sell limits set between 1287-88.
why? Odds favored a move up off wedge bottom.

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For next week, at least first part of next week, odds highly favor UP. Wedge bottom.

Well now..well now...which way do i turn my charts? I think it went up....

Edited by Patuca

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Strong Majority Of Gold Survey Participants See Higher Prices Next Week

Simmering geopolitical concerns have the majority of participants in the weekly Kitco News Gold Survey forecasting higher prices for next week.

 

Out of 37 participants, 27 responded this week. Of those, 18 see higher prices, six see lower prices and three see prices trading sideways or are neutral. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical-chart analysts.

 

Last week, survey participants were nominally bearish for this week. As of 11:30 a.m. EDT, Comex December gold was up about $17 for the week.

 

With the tensions in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict rising again this week, an end to a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas and U.S. airstrikes on militants in Iraq, most survey participants said they were expected gold to remain supported. Technical charts also appear to show rising prices.

 

Colin Cieszynski, senior market strategist at CMC Markets, said with gold back over $1,300 an ounce, technical charts showing are turning positive, with a series of higher lows and rising momentum, he said. Gold “has room to run if it can get through $1,322. On the fundamental side, Europe’s economy (is) weak and sanctions (are) not helping. (That) means growing pressure on (the) European Central Bank to do even more stimulus, which had boosted gold in the past. Political flare-ups in any number of places like Ukraine, Iraq, West Africa, Gaza, Libya and more could send capital fleeing into defensive havens at any time and keep trading active,” he said.

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Strong Majority Of Gold Survey Participants See Higher Prices Next Week

Simmering geopolitical concerns have the majority of participants in the weekly Kitco News Gold Survey forecasting higher prices for next week.

 

Out of 37 participants, 27 responded this week. Of those, 18 see higher prices, six see lower prices and three see prices trading sideways or are neutral. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical-chart analysts.

 

Last week, survey participants were nominally bearish for this week. As of 11:30 a.m. EDT, Comex December gold was up about $17 for the week.

 

With the tensions in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict rising again this week, an end to a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas and U.S. airstrikes on militants in Iraq, most survey participants said they were expected gold to remain supported. Technical charts also appear to show rising prices.

 

Colin Cieszynski, senior market strategist at CMC Markets, said with gold back over $1,300 an ounce, technical charts showing are turning positive, with a series of higher lows and rising momentum, he said. Gold “has room to run if it can get through $1,322. On the fundamental side, Europe’s economy (is) weak and sanctions (are) not helping. (That) means growing pressure on (the) European Central Bank to do even more stimulus, which had boosted gold in the past. Political flare-ups in any number of places like Ukraine, Iraq, West Africa, Gaza, Libya and more could send capital fleeing into defensive havens at any time and keep trading active,” he said.

odds favor a lower low being made next session thus a possible shorting opportunity. However, if not made rather early in the session and prices start back up then a long opportunity could present itself.

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