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mohsinqureshii

Gold Bullish or Bearish

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Survey Participants See Higher Gold Prices Next Week

Gold prices may drift higher next week, the majority of participants in the Kitco News Gold Survey said, based on rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

 

Out of 33 participants, 24 responded this week. Of those, 16 see prices higher, three see prices lower and five see prices trading sideways or are neutral. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical-chart analysts.

 

Last week, survey participants were bearish for this week. As of 11:30 a.m. EDT, Comex August gold was up about $21 for the week.

 

Those participants who see higher prices said the news out of Iraq, that insurgents seized Mosul, a town near one of Iraq’s biggest oil pipelines, underpins gold prices for the time being. However, most participants who see higher prices, such as Adam Klopfenstein, market strategist with Archer Financial Services, said they’re not seeing sizable gains next week because values are bumping into technical chart resistance. That ceiling starts around $1,280 an ounce.

 

“I’m mildly bullish,” Klopfenstein said.

 

Those who see weaker prices next week said gold’s strength based on geopolitical factors can be fleeting, especially if events change and the insurgency loses momentum. Additionally, there is the Federal Open Market Committee meeting next week and that may reinforce ideas that the U.S. economy is slowly strengthening.

 

“I think the Iraq situation shook everybody up. Oil rallied sharply and we were able to push gold higher…. But I’m not convinced that we won’t see more downside. I think you can cautiously sell rallies if we get to $1,280.

 

Thirteen hundred is the big resistance. If we don’t find any more news then we’ll probably go back to $1,240. There’s the FOMC next week; that’s worth watching. That could change things quickly. And it’s another reason why I would sell rallies,” said Afshin Nabavi, head of trading at trading house MKS (Switzerland) SA in Geneva.

 

A few survey participants said they see gold holding in a trading range as the geopolitical news isn’t enough to push it above current resistance levels between $1,280 and $1,300, while the FOMC meeting isn’t likely to be enough to push gold under support between $1,250 and $1,240.

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WGC: Gold 'Highly Liquid' Among Alternative Assets

Gold is not only an alternative investment that adds diversification to portfolios, but many gold investments are more “highly liquid” than many investors may realize, said a World Gold Council official.

 

The daily volume in the gold market rivals that of many of the world’s currency crosses and individual stocks, the WGC said in a report titled “Risk management and capital preservation.” Additionally, the report argues that gold is more like a currency than other commodities, even though the precious metal is often referred to as a commodity and is one of the components of the main commodity indices.

 

Juan Carlos Artigas, director of investment research for the World Gold Council, outlined some of the findings in an interview with Kitco News. The WGC is a market development organization for the gold industry.

 

“Investors have been looking for alternative assets for some time now,” he said.

 

Interest in alternatives to stocks, bonds and money markets has grown significantly over the past decade, with investors putting money to work in private equity, hedge funds, real estate and commodities, seeking both diversification and improved risk-adjusted returns, he explained. However, the report said, only 5% of $153 trillion in total financial assets are currently in such alternatives and less than 1% is in gold.

 

Alternatives have generally outperformed stocks on a risk-adjusted basis, said the WGC. Further, gold has outperformed stocks and commodities on average since 1990 and even more so since 2000, the WGC said.

 

However, many of the so-called alternatives actually correlate significantly to stocks, especially during periods of systemic risk, Artigas said.

 

“Gold is bringing something new and good to the picture…especially in periods of systematic risk,” he said. “It is a very well diversified asset. It is the one alternative asset that has the lowest correlation consistently with respect to stocks, whether in good times or not. It is also very liquid.”

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Survey Participants Heavily Bullish On Gold Prices For Next Week

A strong majority of participants in the Kitco News Gold Survey forecast higher prices next week, as many expect the yellow metal to build on momentum uncovered this week.

 

Out of 37 participants, 26 responded this week. Of those, 18 see higher prices, six see lower prices and two see prices trading sideways or are neutral. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical-chart analysts.

 

Last week, survey participants were bullish for this week. As of 11:30 a.m. EDT, Comex August gold was up about $42 for the week.

 

“The gold market has finally woken up to the fact that the Federal Reserve is going to continue to be very accommodative. Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen herself (made) clear that any interest hikes are some time into the future and inferred that higher inflation is not a real concern of hers. So gold jumped after the (Federal) Open Market Committee meeting put out its statement and continued rallying. Iraq supports gold but is not the primary reason gold has moved up,” said Adrian Day, chairman and chief executive officer of Adrian Day Asset Management.

 

Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, echoed similar views.

 

“The triple combination of a slightly more dovish Fed, the crisis in Iraq and the technical break back above the 200-day moving average leaves the door open for higher prices next week. A strong silver close this Friday could signal a break above the downtrend from 2011 and that could spur this metal on to further gains,” he said.

 

Those participants who call for weaker prices next week said considering the rally came so swiftly, a pullback might be in order. Additionally, they noted little physical demand on the move higher, which has been a problem plaguing gold for a few months now.

 

“I can see by the gold forward rates that the buying was coming from the hedge fund/spec (speculative) community and not the physical buyers. The physical buyers have actually turned slight sellers at these levels. The buying on Thursday seemed to me to be panic short covering. A settlement above $1,325 should attract some aggressive buying from the fund sector but until them I remain slightly bearish at these levels,” said Kevin Grady, owner Phoenix Futures and Options LLC.

 

A few participants who are neutral on prices said they believe gold needs to consolidate the current gains before it can make its next move.

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Good one about Silver..

 

Why silver’s outperforming gold and isn’t done yet

Silver has quietly scored double the percentage gains of gold this month, and prices for silver probably haven’t topped out for the year.

 

“The real value of silver is far from being realized,” said Andrew Chanin, chief executive officer of PureFunds, which offers the PureFunds ISE Junior Silver ETF

 

Tracking the most-active futures contracts, silver prices SIN4 -0.96% SIU4 -0.91% have gained roughly 13% month to date, compared with gold’s GCQ4 -0.08% 6% climb.

 

Silver is priced as if it’s much more common than gold, but it may be much rarer than the price suggests, Chanin said. Given its antibacterial properties and ability to conduct heat and electricity, silver may also become even more important as an industrial metal, “causing a supply shortage.”

 

Out of 19 trading sessions this month, silver prices have fallen only three times, while gold prices posted declines for five of them. And while gold prices traded recently at just over a two-month high, silver tapped its highest in more than three months.

 

Year to date, gold has still outperformed but barely — up 10% versus silver’s 9% climb.

 

Analysts attribute silver’s recent gains to some safe-haven demand on the heels of the turmoil in Iraq. But they also said improving economic data helped raise the demand outlook for the metal.

 

Most of the upward move for silver was due to the increase in demand and this was fueled by improving economic data, which hit the tape early this week and last week in the U.S., said Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at AvaTrade.

 

HSBC’s preliminary read on the Chinese manufacturing sector for May hit a seven-month high. In the U.S., May industrial production climbed more than expected and an index of manufacturing conditions in the Philadelphia region rose to the highest reading since last September.

 

But on Wednesday, data showed that the U.S. economy contracted by 2.9% in the first quarter. Weekly data Thursday showed that jobless claims remain near a post-recession low and consumer spending in May rose less than expected.

 

Aslam said that with major resistance for silver around the $22 mark and the metal’s recent run, a “small correction” may be in the cards.

 

But longer term, “silver may continue to outperform as it does not serve the exact purpose as gold” which can be seen as a risk-off trade and inflation hedge, he said. And silver can “continue moving up if the growth starts picking up and the general public finds more appetite for jewelry.”

 

Gold, silver disparities

 

“Cheap” and “undervalued” are some of the words analysts used to reference silver when asked for their take on the outlook for the metal.

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Gold forecast for the week of June 30, 2014

The gold markets had a slightly positive week over the last five sessions, but that being the case the market continues to look a bit ported. Nonetheless, we believe that this market should eventually go higher, and head to the $1400 level. In fact, it’s possible that we may be forming an inverted head and shoulders, suggesting that we could go even higher than that. With this being the case, we are bullish of this market and believe that it will ultimately continue higher into a nice uptrend.

 

With the most recent GDP numbers coming out of the United States revised much lower, it’s very possible that the market will continue to sell off the US dollar and head into precious metals such as gold. It’s very possible that the Federal Reserve may have to taper off of quantitative easing even slower than anticipated, and that of course means that the market will have to adjust for interest rate expectations.

 

Ultimately, the market should continue to find lots of choppiness between here and the $1400 level, and if we can get above that $1400 level, this should be a nice buy-and-hold type of situation sending this market as high as $1800 over the longer term. Pullbacks should continue to offer buying opportunities going forward, and as a result we would be looking at different buying opportunities with anticipation. We have no interest in selling this market, and believe that there should be plenty of pullbacks going forward that should continue to bring in buyers looking for value. We believe that it’s likely that the $1200 level is the “floor” in this market, and that the market will go below there again. After all, the $1200 is a massive support level on the longer-term charts, and as a result we think that the gold markets will be much higher than current levels by the end of the year. We also believe that so-called “smart money” is starting to enter the market, and take advantage of cheap prices in a market that has been oversold for some time.

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Peaked at 1339 for about 5 times on the hourly chart. Support seems to be forming ard 1335 level. Gold is making my nerves tingle although trend is still bullish atm. Positioning longs at 1340 level and hope to see a break through to 1360.

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july is here price jump

 

Thanks

It is jumping.

 

Out the freakin' window!!!!

 

Or to put it another way - wave 5 down is underway as I have said continuing the bear trend.

 

It ain't over till its over.

 

Wait the end is coming (the end of the bear and the end of the permabulls) but will you be still afloat when it does?

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It is jumping.

 

Out the freakin' window!!!!

 

Or to put it another way - wave 5 down is underway as I have said continuing the bear trend.

 

It ain't over till its over.

 

Wait the end is coming (the end of the bear and the end of the permabulls) but will you be still afloat when it does?

Shake out my boy shake out...getting ready for BIG move UP.

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Oh yeah. Whole lotta shaking going on - Jerry Lee Lewis

 

Shaking out everyone who went long the last 3 weeks. I hope you didn't?

 

Keep your eye on 1298 midpoint of last big bullish daily bar on June 19th.

 

If it doesn't hold then ... :puke:

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Oh yeah. Whole lotta shaking going on - Jerry Lee Lewis

 

Shaking out everyone who went long the last 3 weeks. I hope you didn't?

 

Keep your eye on 1298 midpoint of last big bullish daily bar on June 19th.

 

If it doesn't hold then ... :puke:

LOL it will just be a double bottom shakeout. After .50 comes a fib number for next stop. You believe in fibs..right?

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The month long bullish run of gold came to an end yesterday as the yellow metal lost it’s glitter by USD 32 (1336.78 to 1306.36).Currently gold is resting at 1310.50 – 1305.60 level which happens to be 38.2% Fib retracement. Considering current bearish momentum and next support level at 1282.75 – 1278.10, coinciding with 61.8% Fib retracement, it is expected that Gold will remain under pressure for the current week as it tests support levels, providing high probability setup for swing traders.

 

Alternatively, it is also possible that Gold completes its retrace at current zone and retains its bullish run of last month. In that case, expect gold to hit highs of earlier this year around 1391.00. Current price action along with support/resistance structure support bearish outlook but stop loss shouldn’t be ignored, in case Gold takes a U-Turn.

Regards

TradeCuts

5aa7122d85913_Goldjuly15.thumb.jpg.d885d7c62475db4ab54d2996ec78dc86.jpg

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Hi Sun Trader

Do you believe in fibs?

regards

bobc

Capt Bob he doesn't believe in my fibs ....apparently..LOL

 

Where you been? Mitsubishi has fled the chicken coop...i guess he got tired of it all.....?

 

I'm hanging there...at the moment in ky....land between the lakes..near Paducah...

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Hi Sun Trader

Do you believe in fibs?

regards

bobc

 

Hey Bob,

 

"Ask me no questions, I'll tell you no lies".

 

Oh wait those kind of fibs, of course - fibs and waves.

 

Note I said a few days ago wave 5 was underway. I should have said wave 5 continues. It has been underway since St Paddy's day March 17th - at least as always - if my count is right:

5aa7122de639f_Goldwave5.thumb.png.391e92b0e8c3c7e1bdfaf67def09210f.png

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End of the downtrend.

 

Are you standing on your head looking at your charts again?

Not good for the grey matter.

it is easier to turn the chart upside down. Plus it is more optimistic and in tune with the american w.v.

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Hey Bob,

 

"Ask me no questions, I'll tell you no lies".

 

Oh wait those kind of fibs, of course - fibs and waves.

 

Note I said a few days ago wave 5 was underway. I should have said wave 5 continues. It has been underway since St Paddy's day March 17th - at least as always - if my count is right:

 

Hi Sun Trader

I note you are using wave analysis

And the trend is DOWN

Do you actually have a position open, and if so , do you hold through the draw down.?

Or are you trading off the levels?

regards

bobc

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