Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

daytrade999

Consistently Losing

Recommended Posts

Thank you all for your kind words. Having just left my rock for the sunshine I appreciate it.

 

More apologies to dt999. The last point (11) came out more harsh than I intended. I certainly don't want to thwart anyone's pursuit of profits.

 

Also, very all good comments from everyone. I was gonna quote & reply but realized that would be another War & Peace.

 

I think the short version is that everything we mentioned is probably correct in various degrees at various times.

 

I have done some research and the retrace is the most frequent and predictable pattern of all, and by far.

 

I really believe stop hunting is SOP for brokers and other entry counter parties. Maybe they can do it because most of them play the same game and most of us retail folks follow the herd? It takes balls, money, and discipline to do the other correct things, to catch a falling knife or step in front of a bus.

 

Squiggly, lagging lines and channel breakouts are what most noobs do. They are always late, buy tops and sell bottoms. One can be profitable with lines and channels if the other ducks are in a row.

 

My studies indicate that range breakouts win about 33% of the time but still can make a ton of money.

 

Not many can handle that ratio emotionally. The emotions, chop and over leverage are a perfect storm to break their hearts and their accounts. I hate to see it.

 

The "profit taking" rationale used to be the primary explanation for retraces. And that is still valid. Yup, I am that old.

 

Then those pesky brokers and banks have every advantage. Their back rooms have their books and they lay off risk in a nano second for a fraction of the spread. They also track the A list traders and B list traders. I've known a few of those "bucketeers" over the years.

 

I overlay cme volume on my fx charts to help mitigate the "no fx volume data" dilemma. The mass of volume, or lack thereof, at certain prices and often at the end of a retrace is one of my magic beans. It keeps me from jumping in mid stream and buying tops and selling bottoms.

 

The biggest sin I still struggle with is entering too early. Fading the dip/rally is such a strong method I can't help myself. I quit dying a thousand deaths when I came to expect the adverse move and initiated the trade with a tiny.

 

Well, you didn't get War & Peace. Instead you got The Satanic Verses.

I guess I'm just lonely.

 

The level of discourse in this thread is outstanding. One can learn a lot here.

 

Hereafter I resolve to ramble less.

 

Bye for now.

 

Thanks for all these great insights

 

I really want to know want to verify what you said on the post. So you are saying that you trade retracemente and that this works for you. ? I apologize for my lack of understand of your terms.

 

Feel free to comment and respond with true honesty.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
That's a good question and almost philosophical… I guess, the 'taking advantage' can only go so far as long as a market exists, i.e. people/institutions continue to participate in it, although they are being screwed from time to time.

 

Btw, it is not only the retail trader's stops that get hunted but also those of professional funds… there are many different participants in this big shark tank and everybody tries to "eat the other" :) … sometimes one party "wins", sometimes the other… that's what keeps participants in the game… the conviction that overall they come out as a winner… naturally this can only be true for some of them over a certain period of time… and for less and less participants the more this time period is extended...

 

Stop hunting is a byproduct of everyone trying to win. At the end of the day stops will get hit. If someone does not like this reality of the market then he must stay away. Besides for most people the market is recreational activity for which they are willing pay a fee. Mike Harris in his blog argues based on statistical analysis results that the markets have been very generous even to gamblers.This is very interesting analysis that claims that about 35% of all traders of SPY have made some money even if we assume they traded randomly that that is based on the distribution of returns of a coin toss trading system.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hello, daytrade999, sergso & estate1997,

 

Estate, thank you for the Like.

 

 

Stop hunting is a byproduct of everyone trying to win. At the end of the day stops will get hit.

Mike Harris in his blog argues based on statistical analysis results that the markets have been very generous even to gamblers.This is very interesting analysis that claims that about 35% of all traders of SPY have made some money even if we assume they traded randomly that that is based on the distribution of returns of a coin toss trading system.

 

I agree stop hunting is a fact of trading life. It was mentioned elsewhere in this thread that big players stop hunt each other as well as retail traders. It was also mentioned that active markets are so large and that the huge number of diverse players operate in their own interest. Maybe that is why anything can happen at any time and the returns appear to very closely match a normal probability distribution function as Harris suggested?

 

It is interesting because simple market returns also resemble, but do not exactly match, a normal PDF (reference the fat tails everybody knows).

 

However, the "simple returns" are NOT based on an arbitrary strategy as Harris imposed. Therefore I disagree with Harris' conclusion about the expectation of success for a "random" strategy. I think his assumptions are wrong because they require a set of parameters in his strategy that are very unrealistic and rarely if ever used in real trading.

 

First, a normal PDF requires discrete outcomes. It is true that trends and cycles also appear in random populations of discrete event/outcomes. However, the trends and cycles seen in market action are not discrete. They are the result of human behavior.

 

Second, his strategy is SAR (stop & reverse), with a large account, trading the minimum possy size, without leverage. That means the intra and closed trade draw downs could be huge. Even to the point of being one cent greater than the account balance that would trigger a margin call. Of course, that is an extreme but a 50% or greater draw down is commonly seen in a strategy like Harris used. There is more to say but I'm already running long and just these items demonstrate that Harris' trading rules are not realistic.

 

****Sergso, I'm not accusing, but requesting that you do not copy/paste my comments onto Harris' blog. I have no interest in defending or debating my statements. I know what I know and life is too short for that crap. Gurus have the bully pulpit and always the last word.****

 

The exception is that I am happy to discuss anything with the great folks on your thread. I'm eager to learn new stuff that can be profitable.

 

 

Thanks for all these great insights

 

I really want to know want to verify what you said on the post. So you are saying that you trade retracemente and that this works for you. ? I apologize for my lack of understand of your terms.

 

Feel free to comment and respond with true honesty.

 

Thanks dt999. I HONESTLY hope some of this will be helpful.

 

Yes, my primary method is to trade retraces that are counter to the larger trend. Therefore, my entry is in agreement with the larger trend.

 

Some reminders:

 

Retraces occur after very small moves up to the huge moves. The market is fractal so this most common of all patterns is seen everywhere. I choose move sizes that give

continuances of the larger trend with enough profit potential to justify the risk.

 

It is unrealistic to expect a market to hit a retrace level to the penny.

Therefor I use zones (ex. +/- 10 pips depending on the market) around the expected retrace price.

 

The fib levels are not mystical or exact. Remember, they are discretionary. You choose the high and low to use. However, I believe the huge mix of players, and their account sizes, and therefore their stop placements, may be related to the ancient golden ratio & fibs. We evolved to find that ratio pleasing in nature and in all aspects of life.

 

Wow! Another marathon post. But this time it is your fault! Ha!

 

Remember, please google and learn any of the words or concepts here you do not understand.

 

Finally, honesty is not my policy but I will do my best here.

 

Good luck in the new week!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

 

Besides for most people the market is recreational activity for which they are willing pay a fee.

 

 

Lol… I'm not sure though whether they view it like this completely… most behave like this certainly.

 

 

 

Mike Harris in his blog argues based on statistical analysis results that the markets have been very generous even to gamblers.This is very interesting analysis that claims that about 35% of all traders of SPY have made some money even if we assume they traded randomly that that is based on the distribution of returns of a coin toss trading system.

 

Interesting analysis, especially for everyone still looking for the holy grail.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
If anyone is consistently losing even after trying everything, he/she should leave the trading space, he was not made for it.

 

This is true for every business. What ia a relevant timeframe do you think? I think about 2 years should be enough with full-time trading.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
What ia a relevant timeframe do you think? I think about 2 years should be enough with full-time trading.

 

Every one is different and I think given a person's resolve, anyone can end up being profitable trader eventually. It took me 4 years of full-time to start turning consistent profits.

 

With kind regards,

MK

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You'll likely have losing years and winning years from time to time unless you are very lucky and you only experience winning years. As long as you keep trading, you'll experience losing periods where it feels like you can't do anything right. Hopefully, you'll be able to identify these periods for what they are. If you can't, then the market gets control of you. However, if you know what you are doing (how to trade, what trading is, how markets work, how to manage money), then those losing periods end and you can and will win more than you lose even if you do not experience more than average luck.

 

When you enter a trade, you hope to take either a small loss or a large gain. On paper it looks like a simple plan. The rest of the market hopes that you take very little ( small gain) if you win and leave a lot (large loss) if you lose. If you are losing consistently, then you are allowing the market to control you, since you are taking small gains and large losses. There really is no other way to consistently lose if losing is the issue.

 

You could be transaction costing yourself broke too even though your gross profits exceed your gross losses.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I always thought it would be cool to have reverse trading system for the rookies that auto reverses every single trade, hence making about 90% of all traders on this system profitable.

 

But seriously - your stop is to close or in an obvious spot, and/or you are a sideways chop - better to get out until chop is resolved. The best freakin trading trick is when you are in a loosing trade if it goes big time against you from the on set than simply reverse your position - layering money in only when the profits are increasing on the existing position(s)

 

Aloha,

 

Dave

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
If anyone is consistently losing even after trying everything, he/she should leave the trading space, he was not made for it.

 

I would question that statement, as there is no people who is incompatible with trading. Another important point is acquiring knowledge for that: somebody ju st leavy this rough going and give up with trading. Lacking persistency is the biggest issue in that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Consistently losing SMALL should be a normal part of the trading process. Learn risk management and position sizing. This is precisely why I created my website because people are quick to throw platitudes but they don't show how exactly to do it. Cut your loses short they say but that's all they say.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I found this article quite interesting. The idea is that consistent losers do not exit in reality because they could reverse what they do and become consistent winners. The consistent losing is probably due to overtrading and high commission cost and slippage. or even due to destructive behavior or maybe a special situation like being manipulated by a malicious broker.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I always thought it would be cool to have reverse trading system for the rookies that auto reverses every single trade, hence making about 90% of all traders on this system profitable.

 

But seriously - your stop is to close or in an obvious spot, and/or you are a sideways chop - better to get out until chop is resolved. The best freakin trading trick is when you are in a loosing trade if it goes big time against you from the on set than simply reverse your position - layering money in only when the profits are increasing on the existing position(s)

 

Aloha,

 

Dave

Commissions would kill. Novice traders are usually just getting the timing wrong, mismatching volatility with ability/time to break through support/resistance and not reading the bounce, etc. I'm convinced that no automated system(unless highest frequency bot)can adapt to the dynamic nature of the bid/ask system-as it is made up of collective human psychology.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 things you need to do if you keep losing money in the stock...
  1. Compound your winners, not your losers. Investors with a losing portfolio usually hold on to their losers and hope that one day their investments will turn around. ...
  2. Always invest in good companies. ...
  3. Diversify, but don't over-diversify. ...
  4. Give your tree time to grow. ...
  5. Opportunity is key.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 8/28/2013 at 1:22 PM, daytrade999 said:

Hi everyone,

 

I'm having problem with my trading and I want some help . I consider myself a swing trader and my method is following the trend and watching price action as confirmation for entry. My problem is I'm always losing . There are times when ny positions are in profit but I'm just not so sure when to move ny stops and then I get stopped out even when the trade was right. I try to cut losses by closing out positions that are not working the next day and Minot even sure if this is what people say cutting your losses short means. I need help people . Thanks .

check out Bookmap. The heat map can help you to see where the large level of buyers/sellers so you can put your stops accordingly and also tell you when the trend can be shifted when you are in a profitable trade.

ROKU@DXFEED_screenshot_20190318_155300_860.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Overtrading either trading too big or too often – is the most common reason why forex traders fail. Overtrading might be caused by unrealistically high profit goals, market addiction, or insufficient capitalization.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 10/27/2020 at 2:28 PM, CrazyCzarina said:

Overtrading either trading too big or too often – is the most common reason why forex traders fail. Overtrading might be caused by unrealistically high profit goals, market addiction, or insufficient capitalization.

Agreed. Those are the most common reasons to fail. I needed a long time to just counter some of them and I'm still struggling with others.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 1/9/2019 at 2:00 PM, divyanshisharma said:
5 things you need to do if you keep losing money in the stock...
  1. Compound your winners, not your losers. Investors with a losing portfolio usually hold on to their losers and hope that one day their investments will turn around. ...
  2. Always invest in good companies. ...
  3. Diversify, but don't over-diversify. ...
  4. Give your tree time to grow. ...
  5. Opportunity is key.

Thanks by the way can you recommend some reliable broker? What do you think of Hotforex? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date : 24th November 2020.Macro Events & News – November 24 2020Market News Today USD recovered after better than expected PMI’s. – Earlier AstraZeneca vaccine hopes lifted stocks, EZ PMIs worse than expected, UK’s better than expected but both poor. Trump acknowledged that Biden transition should start – Equities rallied further (Nikkei back and up 2.5%) & riskier currencies gained a bid. Biden to name Yellen as Treasury Secretary & Kerry as Climate Tsar. In total a triple whammy for sentiment and risk appetite. USOil followed stocks higher and Gold trades $50 lower than Friday’s close. German GDP revised higher to 8.5% in final reading, from 8.2%.Shortened Thanksgiving Week Ahead – Highlights – FOMC mins – more significance, after Mnuchin removed emergency funding – possibility of action at their Dec. meeting. Plus – Consumer Confidence, Durable Goods & GDPUSDIndex – Sank to support at 92.00 yesterday – rallied to 92.70, post PMI’s. back under PP now at 92.35. S1 92.10, R1 92.90.EUR – Rejected 1.1900 & tested down to 1.1800, again yesterday. Now 1.1855 (PP) JPY – down to 103.67 lows yesterday. Rallied to 104.60, now back to 104.40. PP 104.25.GBP – rallied to a smidge shy of 1.3400, & down to 1.3262. Back to 1.3340 (PP)now all in anticipation of EU-UK Trade announcement this week?AUD – 0.7340 – 0.7270 range yesterday. Trades at 0.7320 now (R1), PP 0.7295 NZD – down to test 0.6900 yesterday, another good Asian session for king Kiwi, back to test R2 0.6990 earlier, now at 0.6975.CAD – Back to 1.3040 (S1) ; R1 & 200Ma cap at 1.3090, S2 1.3015 CHF – 0.9075 lows to 0.9150 yesterday. Back to PP and 200Ma now 0.9115, s1 0.9093BTC – Holds bid at $18,400 (PP). Tested to 18k low yesterday.GOLD – Collapsed 3% from 1876 to test S1 at 1820 earlier – now 1830 – PP 1850 USOil – Rallied over R1 to $43.70. Vaccine hopes & OPEC+ production cut noises continue to support prices. R2 today 43.90. Private inventories later, official EIA data tomorrow.USA500 – Closed +20 (+0.56%) 3577 – USA500 FUTS now at 3605.Today – German IFO, US Consumer Confidence, BoE’s Haskel, Fed’s Bullard, Williams, ECB’s Schnabel, Lagarde, Lane,Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.79%) –. Holds rally from yesterdays sub 72.00 open, ran to test R3 at 73.05 earlier. Fast MA’s aligned higher but cooling at R2, RSI 68 moving below OB zone, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher, breached 0-line last week. Stochs. lowering from OB H1 ATR 0.2565 Daily ATR 0.7411.Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • HotForex is an Official Partner of French giant Paris Saint-Germain F.C.! Dear Client, We are thrilled to announce that for our latest partnership we have become an Official Partner of Paris Saint-Germain F.C. for the 2020-21 season! The partnership will combine trading excellence and football finesse in a collaboration between a leading football team and market leading broker that share the passion required to be at the top. According to our statement: “We're incredibly proud to announce that HotForex is an Official Partner of Paris Saint-Germain F.C. Through this partnership, we are thrilled to offer our valued clients VIP tickets, exclusive gifts and events.” HotForex CEO George Koumantaris said: “This partnership is an exciting opportunity to bring together two brands who share global recognition for their commitment to excellence. Together we look forward to establishing new standards and offering clientele and supporters a truly unique experience.” HotForex is an internationally acclaimed multi-asset broker of choice to over 2.5 million live accounts worldwide that has earned over 45 coveted industry awards in its ten year history. Paris Saint-Germain F.C.’s popularity and success are also recognized worldwide, and it has a star-studded roster including Neymar Jr., Kylian Mbappé and Ángel Di Maria. Find out more about the partnership: Kind Regards, The HotForex Team
    • USD/JPY IS REACHING BEARISH EXHAUSTION, MAY REVERSE AT LEVEL 103.23 Key Resistance Levels: 111.000, 112.000, 113.000 Key Support Levels: 104.000, 103.000, 102.000 USD/JPY Price Long-term Trend: Bearish The USD/JPY pair has been in a downward move since November 12 after a rebound above level 103.30. The pair is approaching the previous support at level 103.30. The selling pressure will resume if the current is broken. The Yen will resume an upward move if the support holds. USD/JPY – Daily Chart Daily Chart Indicators Reading: The 21-day SMA and the 50-day SMA are sloping downward indicating the downtrend. The pair has fallen to level 40 of the Relative Strength Index period 14. The pair is in the downtrend zone and capable of falling. USD/JPY Medium-term Trend: Bearish On the 4-hour chart, the pair has been in a downward move after rejection at 105.00. On November 18 downtrend; a retraced candle body tested the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. This indicates that the market will fall to level 1.272 Fibonacci extensions. That is the Yen will reach the low of level 103.23 and reverse. USD/JPY – 4 Hour Chart 4-hour Chart Indicators Reading The USD/JPY pair is currently above the 25% range of the daily stochastic. It indicates that the pair is in a bullish momentum. The SMAs are sloping downward indicating the downtrend. General Outlook for USD/JPY USD/JPY has been on a downward move but the selling pressure is reaching bearish exhaustion. According to the Fibonacci tool analysis, the Yen will fall and reverse at level 103.23. Source: https://learn2.trade 
    • EURJPY BEARISH MOMENTUM REMAINS TOWARD 123.00 LEVEL EURJPY Price Analysis – November 20 The EURJPY pair is attempting to close beneath the 123.37 price zone as speculative interest stays trapped between coronavirus outbreaks and vaccine hopes. The pairs selling momentum remains toward the 123.00 level. Key Levels Resistance Levels: 127.07, 125.00, 123.37 Support Levels: 122.37, 121.61, 119.31 EURJPY Long term Trend: Ranging As seen in the daily time frame, the downside pressure is expected to accelerate if EURJPY breaks below the 123.00 support, exposing the ascending trendline support and the 122.37 low. Meanwhile, the moving average 5 and 13 stays mixed for a range in the coming sessions. If the 123.00 support holds, a surge towards the 123.40 level could be expected during the following trading session. However, a barrier around the MA 13 could serve as a limitation for bullish traders within this session. Lower here a firm breach of 119.31 level will argue that the rise from 114.42 level has completed and turned the focus back lower. EURJPY Short term Trend: Ranging The intraday bias in EURJPY is staying in consolidation with the current recovery. A much more decline is mildly in consideration with 123.37 minor resistance level intact. Beneath the 122.37 level will target a test on the 121.61 low level initially. The resolute breach there may restart the trend from 127.07 level with another decline to 119.31 key support level. On the upside, though, a breach of 123.37 minor resistance level may shift sentiment back to the upside for the 125.00 level instead. Source: https://learn2.trade 
    • Let’s skim some features of Dominion from the manual 1. Dominion is a black box with votes ultimately tabulated in a central server system. Who has access to the central server and where is the manual and security reviews of that server software? 2. Local IT can clandestinely change settings to potentially alter an entire election. There are no checks and balances or observers of the local IT guy when he accesses machine debug and admin settings. Its unclear if a log exists. 3. Many complex rules decide how the “straight ticket” option works, but he system can be set up to ignore votes for individuals if a straight ticket vote is selected. 4. Network Security is very weak since all software access keys use the same cryptographic pair. This gives plausible deniability to whoever potentially decides to mess around with voting settings. It cant be proven who changed a setting since everybody has the same key 5. Digital certificates are not protected by password, and Dominion user manual explicitly says not to enter a password. This enables potential for bad actors to MITM attack data traveling over network between precinct tabulator and central tabulator. 6. Cryptic “split rotation” function that features the ability to “force a maximum deviation”. There is no definition of a “split rotation”, so we cannot know what “force a maximum deviation” means in this instance. 7. Settings can be changed during evening downtime on first night of voting. Much easier to change settings on hundreds of machines than to forge thousands of ballots. A couple of people can do it quickly. 8. The word “Cast” became “Print”, obfuscating the moment when your vote becomes officially cast. Reason for the semantic changes requested by the State of Pennsylvania to the Dominion voting software is currently unknown. 9. There is an option to force the vote scanner to “overrun” a preset amount of ballots every time anybody pauses the scan mid-batch. “Overrun” is undefined. Potential for abuse is high with this function, which was added shortly after 2018 mid-term elections.   ... Americans have a bad and chronic case of “it can’t happen here” ... I'm just sayin'  
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.