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daytrade999

Consistently Losing

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Thank you all for your kind words. Having just left my rock for the sunshine I appreciate it.

 

More apologies to dt999. The last point (11) came out more harsh than I intended. I certainly don't want to thwart anyone's pursuit of profits.

 

Also, very all good comments from everyone. I was gonna quote & reply but realized that would be another War & Peace.

 

I think the short version is that everything we mentioned is probably correct in various degrees at various times.

 

I have done some research and the retrace is the most frequent and predictable pattern of all, and by far.

 

I really believe stop hunting is SOP for brokers and other entry counter parties. Maybe they can do it because most of them play the same game and most of us retail folks follow the herd? It takes balls, money, and discipline to do the other correct things, to catch a falling knife or step in front of a bus.

 

Squiggly, lagging lines and channel breakouts are what most noobs do. They are always late, buy tops and sell bottoms. One can be profitable with lines and channels if the other ducks are in a row.

 

My studies indicate that range breakouts win about 33% of the time but still can make a ton of money.

 

Not many can handle that ratio emotionally. The emotions, chop and over leverage are a perfect storm to break their hearts and their accounts. I hate to see it.

 

The "profit taking" rationale used to be the primary explanation for retraces. And that is still valid. Yup, I am that old.

 

Then those pesky brokers and banks have every advantage. Their back rooms have their books and they lay off risk in a nano second for a fraction of the spread. They also track the A list traders and B list traders. I've known a few of those "bucketeers" over the years.

 

I overlay cme volume on my fx charts to help mitigate the "no fx volume data" dilemma. The mass of volume, or lack thereof, at certain prices and often at the end of a retrace is one of my magic beans. It keeps me from jumping in mid stream and buying tops and selling bottoms.

 

The biggest sin I still struggle with is entering too early. Fading the dip/rally is such a strong method I can't help myself. I quit dying a thousand deaths when I came to expect the adverse move and initiated the trade with a tiny.

 

Well, you didn't get War & Peace. Instead you got The Satanic Verses.

I guess I'm just lonely.

 

The level of discourse in this thread is outstanding. One can learn a lot here.

 

Hereafter I resolve to ramble less.

 

Bye for now.

 

Thanks for all these great insights

 

I really want to know want to verify what you said on the post. So you are saying that you trade retracemente and that this works for you. ? I apologize for my lack of understand of your terms.

 

Feel free to comment and respond with true honesty.

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That's a good question and almost philosophical… I guess, the 'taking advantage' can only go so far as long as a market exists, i.e. people/institutions continue to participate in it, although they are being screwed from time to time.

 

Btw, it is not only the retail trader's stops that get hunted but also those of professional funds… there are many different participants in this big shark tank and everybody tries to "eat the other" :) … sometimes one party "wins", sometimes the other… that's what keeps participants in the game… the conviction that overall they come out as a winner… naturally this can only be true for some of them over a certain period of time… and for less and less participants the more this time period is extended...

 

Stop hunting is a byproduct of everyone trying to win. At the end of the day stops will get hit. If someone does not like this reality of the market then he must stay away. Besides for most people the market is recreational activity for which they are willing pay a fee. Mike Harris in his blog argues based on statistical analysis results that the markets have been very generous even to gamblers.This is very interesting analysis that claims that about 35% of all traders of SPY have made some money even if we assume they traded randomly that that is based on the distribution of returns of a coin toss trading system.

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Hello, daytrade999, sergso & estate1997,

 

Estate, thank you for the Like.

 

 

Stop hunting is a byproduct of everyone trying to win. At the end of the day stops will get hit.

Mike Harris in his blog argues based on statistical analysis results that the markets have been very generous even to gamblers.This is very interesting analysis that claims that about 35% of all traders of SPY have made some money even if we assume they traded randomly that that is based on the distribution of returns of a coin toss trading system.

 

I agree stop hunting is a fact of trading life. It was mentioned elsewhere in this thread that big players stop hunt each other as well as retail traders. It was also mentioned that active markets are so large and that the huge number of diverse players operate in their own interest. Maybe that is why anything can happen at any time and the returns appear to very closely match a normal probability distribution function as Harris suggested?

 

It is interesting because simple market returns also resemble, but do not exactly match, a normal PDF (reference the fat tails everybody knows).

 

However, the "simple returns" are NOT based on an arbitrary strategy as Harris imposed. Therefore I disagree with Harris' conclusion about the expectation of success for a "random" strategy. I think his assumptions are wrong because they require a set of parameters in his strategy that are very unrealistic and rarely if ever used in real trading.

 

First, a normal PDF requires discrete outcomes. It is true that trends and cycles also appear in random populations of discrete event/outcomes. However, the trends and cycles seen in market action are not discrete. They are the result of human behavior.

 

Second, his strategy is SAR (stop & reverse), with a large account, trading the minimum possy size, without leverage. That means the intra and closed trade draw downs could be huge. Even to the point of being one cent greater than the account balance that would trigger a margin call. Of course, that is an extreme but a 50% or greater draw down is commonly seen in a strategy like Harris used. There is more to say but I'm already running long and just these items demonstrate that Harris' trading rules are not realistic.

 

****Sergso, I'm not accusing, but requesting that you do not copy/paste my comments onto Harris' blog. I have no interest in defending or debating my statements. I know what I know and life is too short for that crap. Gurus have the bully pulpit and always the last word.****

 

The exception is that I am happy to discuss anything with the great folks on your thread. I'm eager to learn new stuff that can be profitable.

 

 

Thanks for all these great insights

 

I really want to know want to verify what you said on the post. So you are saying that you trade retracemente and that this works for you. ? I apologize for my lack of understand of your terms.

 

Feel free to comment and respond with true honesty.

 

Thanks dt999. I HONESTLY hope some of this will be helpful.

 

Yes, my primary method is to trade retraces that are counter to the larger trend. Therefore, my entry is in agreement with the larger trend.

 

Some reminders:

 

Retraces occur after very small moves up to the huge moves. The market is fractal so this most common of all patterns is seen everywhere. I choose move sizes that give

continuances of the larger trend with enough profit potential to justify the risk.

 

It is unrealistic to expect a market to hit a retrace level to the penny.

Therefor I use zones (ex. +/- 10 pips depending on the market) around the expected retrace price.

 

The fib levels are not mystical or exact. Remember, they are discretionary. You choose the high and low to use. However, I believe the huge mix of players, and their account sizes, and therefore their stop placements, may be related to the ancient golden ratio & fibs. We evolved to find that ratio pleasing in nature and in all aspects of life.

 

Wow! Another marathon post. But this time it is your fault! Ha!

 

Remember, please google and learn any of the words or concepts here you do not understand.

 

Finally, honesty is not my policy but I will do my best here.

 

Good luck in the new week!

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Besides for most people the market is recreational activity for which they are willing pay a fee.

 

 

Lol… I'm not sure though whether they view it like this completely… most behave like this certainly.

 

 

 

Mike Harris in his blog argues based on statistical analysis results that the markets have been very generous even to gamblers.This is very interesting analysis that claims that about 35% of all traders of SPY have made some money even if we assume they traded randomly that that is based on the distribution of returns of a coin toss trading system.

 

Interesting analysis, especially for everyone still looking for the holy grail.

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If anyone is consistently losing even after trying everything, he/she should leave the trading space, he was not made for it.

 

This is true for every business. What ia a relevant timeframe do you think? I think about 2 years should be enough with full-time trading.

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What ia a relevant timeframe do you think? I think about 2 years should be enough with full-time trading.

 

Every one is different and I think given a person's resolve, anyone can end up being profitable trader eventually. It took me 4 years of full-time to start turning consistent profits.

 

With kind regards,

MK

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You'll likely have losing years and winning years from time to time unless you are very lucky and you only experience winning years. As long as you keep trading, you'll experience losing periods where it feels like you can't do anything right. Hopefully, you'll be able to identify these periods for what they are. If you can't, then the market gets control of you. However, if you know what you are doing (how to trade, what trading is, how markets work, how to manage money), then those losing periods end and you can and will win more than you lose even if you do not experience more than average luck.

 

When you enter a trade, you hope to take either a small loss or a large gain. On paper it looks like a simple plan. The rest of the market hopes that you take very little ( small gain) if you win and leave a lot (large loss) if you lose. If you are losing consistently, then you are allowing the market to control you, since you are taking small gains and large losses. There really is no other way to consistently lose if losing is the issue.

 

You could be transaction costing yourself broke too even though your gross profits exceed your gross losses.

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I always thought it would be cool to have reverse trading system for the rookies that auto reverses every single trade, hence making about 90% of all traders on this system profitable.

 

But seriously - your stop is to close or in an obvious spot, and/or you are a sideways chop - better to get out until chop is resolved. The best freakin trading trick is when you are in a loosing trade if it goes big time against you from the on set than simply reverse your position - layering money in only when the profits are increasing on the existing position(s)

 

Aloha,

 

Dave

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If anyone is consistently losing even after trying everything, he/she should leave the trading space, he was not made for it.

 

I would question that statement, as there is no people who is incompatible with trading. Another important point is acquiring knowledge for that: somebody ju st leavy this rough going and give up with trading. Lacking persistency is the biggest issue in that.

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Consistently losing SMALL should be a normal part of the trading process. Learn risk management and position sizing. This is precisely why I created my website because people are quick to throw platitudes but they don't show how exactly to do it. Cut your loses short they say but that's all they say.

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I found this article quite interesting. The idea is that consistent losers do not exit in reality because they could reverse what they do and become consistent winners. The consistent losing is probably due to overtrading and high commission cost and slippage. or even due to destructive behavior or maybe a special situation like being manipulated by a malicious broker.

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I always thought it would be cool to have reverse trading system for the rookies that auto reverses every single trade, hence making about 90% of all traders on this system profitable.

 

But seriously - your stop is to close or in an obvious spot, and/or you are a sideways chop - better to get out until chop is resolved. The best freakin trading trick is when you are in a loosing trade if it goes big time against you from the on set than simply reverse your position - layering money in only when the profits are increasing on the existing position(s)

 

Aloha,

 

Dave

Commissions would kill. Novice traders are usually just getting the timing wrong, mismatching volatility with ability/time to break through support/resistance and not reading the bounce, etc. I'm convinced that no automated system(unless highest frequency bot)can adapt to the dynamic nature of the bid/ask system-as it is made up of collective human psychology.

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5 things you need to do if you keep losing money in the stock...
  1. Compound your winners, not your losers. Investors with a losing portfolio usually hold on to their losers and hope that one day their investments will turn around. ...
  2. Always invest in good companies. ...
  3. Diversify, but don't over-diversify. ...
  4. Give your tree time to grow. ...
  5. Opportunity is key.

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Experienced traders loose less than earn, because every trader seek to earn and keep pips. Amount of loosing trades varies from 10 to 30%.  Traders must have an edge to be profitable.

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