Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

MadMarketScientist

Who Makes More Money?

Who Is More Profitable?  

46 members have voted

  1. 1. Who Is More Profitable?

    • Short term trading (shorter time frames, scalping)
      73
    • Long term trading (longer time frames, swinging)
      93
    • Investing (Warren Buffett style)
      36


Recommended Posts

Not necessarily ,the more you trade the more are the chances that'll u'll make losing trades ..my personal psychology is to trade less but trade only when u are sure abt it....scalping is just a miss or hit game

 

It seems a clearer definition of scalping would be in order - why should it be called a hit or miss game and why isn't swing trading the same kind of game then? Imho, any kind of trading on any timeframe without a sound strategy, disciplined execution and evaluation is a hit or miss game. Price action is the same on all TFs. The choice of a trader's preferred time frame is a matter of personality and psychology - ability to tolerate risk over time, time needed to fully recover between periods of risk, intuitive ability, swiftness of decision making, etc.

 

As for the definition, I suppose we would agree that scalping, technically, is a breakout or pullback reversal strategy going for a high probability one directional move without major pullbacks (a single leg) - as opposed to swing trading where the holding time is longer and the trade endures through pullbacks in exchange for the probability of one to three extra legs within a swing. If we define it as such, then, technically, scalping is possible on any TF - from 70 ticks to daily to weekly charts - the setups for scalping look the same on all TFs, it only takes a different period of time to play out and reach the target or stop on different charts.

 

So, scalping, if we do not become attached to the superficial and erroeous notion that it is some reckless button pushing akin to playing the slot machine, is not limited to a particular timeframe - it is a type of strategy (or set of strategies), executed by the trader, vis a vis price behaviour. When people realize this, they are inevitably drawn to lower timeframes, because they understand that lower time frames give them the same kind of risk-reward play within minutes to hours compared to several days on higher TFs, so the potential for profit is considerably higher.

 

Hence, it is not correct to berate intraday "scalping" as such or look upon it as gambling, just because some people manage to apply the same breakout/pullback reversal strategy on lower timeframes better than others (i.e. push bottons more frequently, though still deliberately and for exactly the same reasons). Imho, in the presence of a sound strategy, your time rhythm is the key to success - how long you can bear the pain of uncertainty/loss before losing your head, and how long it takes to fully recover from a loss or climb down from the highs of a win. And I'd say trade the lowest TF that you your personality permits (the necessary condition being total focus and composure before every trade). And if you can trade a one-directional move strategy consistently profitably on 15 or 5 min TF, you can proudly call yourself an intraday "scalper". But the pride should come not from being a "scalper" (no-pullbacks trader), but from being able to play the same game faster than the "scalpers" on the 1H or daily charts do. Comparing it to sports, you will have advanced to a higher league of ability (hit a faster moving ball with the same amount of control and precision).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hence, it is not correct to berate intraday "scalping" as such or look upon it as gambling, just because some people manage to apply the same breakout/pullback reversal strategy on lower timeframes better than others (i.e. push bottons more frequently, though still deliberately and for exactly the same reasons).

 

Im am not berating Scalping. I know scalping exists and there are many day trading who do it successfully time after time .But saying that scalpers are more smart is not agreeable (as the other poster said) . There is not a single scalper who is there on the Forbes list .They were all long term traders/investors/fund owners and they used to invest only after getting reliable information about their desired assets.

My personal choice would be to do 10 trades a month and win 8 of them rather than having 120 trades a month and winning 70 of them........

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
There is not a single scalper who is there on the Forbes list .They were all long term traders/investors/fund owners and they used to invest only after getting reliable information about their desired assets.

 

On Forbes, we see billionaire investors who do not do technical trading (either swing or scalping) themselves – they don’t need to. But I bet the traders at their hedge funds do a lot of both, and the question remains open which strategy generates more cash for them ;). I doubt the investors we see on Forbes could be called “swing traders”. Does Warren Buffet really do trading himself? From the article quoted:

 

"Berkshire Hathaway, in which Buffett owns 27 percent, according to a recent proxy filing, has more than $26 billion invested in eight financial companies that have received bailout money. The TARP at one point had nearly $100 billion invested in these companies and, according to new data released by Thomson Reuters, FDIC backs more than $130 billion of their debt. To put that in perspective, 75 percent of the debt these companies have issued since late November has come with a federal guarantee. [...] Without FDIC’s debt guarantee program, even impregnable Goldman would have collapsed."

 

I suppose that goes well beyond the scope of swing trading. That's big money feeding on monopoly money at the source of issue. No individual trader piggy-backing on the big money's moves, whether for a swing or scalp, will ever catch up with those guys on the Forbes list. Even scalpers like Paul Rotter, who allegedly makes USD 60million a year from scalping, are small fry compared to them.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Another vote for Warren Buffet.

 

Rolfe Winkler | Analysis & Opinion | Reuters.com

 

This is surely the most profitable way.

 

To trade the Warren Buffet Way u need to have big money to invest which most of us dont have. But i will agree that Position trading is the least risky among others cause this is the only trading style which needs thorough research thus minimizing the risk.......

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On Forbes, we see billionaire investors who do not do technical trading (either swing or scalping) themselves – they don’t need to. But I bet the traders at their hedge funds do a lot of both, and the question remains open which strategy generates more cash for them ;). I doubt the investors we see on Forbes could be called “swing traders”. Does Warren Buffet really do trading himself? From the article quoted:

 

"Berkshire Hathaway, in which Buffett owns 27 percent, according to a recent proxy filing, has more than $26 billion invested in eight financial companies that have received bailout money. The TARP at one point had nearly $100 billion invested in these companies and, according to new data released by Thomson Reuters, FDIC backs more than $130 billion of their debt. To put that in perspective, 75 percent of the debt these companies have issued since late November has come with a federal guarantee. [...] Without FDIC’s debt guarantee program, even impregnable Goldman would have collapsed."

 

I suppose that goes well beyond the scope of swing trading. That's big money feeding on monopoly money at the source of issue. No individual trader piggy-backing on the big money's moves, whether for a swing or scalp, will ever catch up with those guys on the Forbes list. Even scalpers like Paul Rotter, who allegedly makes USD 60million a year from scalping, are small fry compared to them.

 

You are saying the same point as im doing ..to get to the rich list one has to get out of the retail world. Retail traders are never going to be on the rich list just like a retail shopkeeper never becomes a super rich stores tycoon owner....one has to get out of this retail bubble to get to the next level.....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Excellent post. The ramifications of it I am first feeling now....after 15 yrs of trading. TRADING FOR MOST OF US WILL NEVER BE WORTH IT BECAUSE.....We can never do both...1-pay our bills from our winnings, and compound our money until our acct is big enough to make us rich.

 

I am a winning trader. I win consistantly. But waht good is making 50% a year which is better than Warren does if all of that and more goes for living expenses. Its a guarantee to go broke.

 

The guy who gets into trading as a hobby,with the goal to slowly learn, and the ultimate goal to add extra income to his nest egg,will likely be the one to become the next Buffett!

 

Are we all blind when we start trading? Why do we not do the math and ask ourselves...How will we ever have the size trading account we need if we cant even make enough to pay all our bills?

 

Unless we have a wife who works that dont mind paying the bills..............this is a movie that will usually have a very sad ending. Look at all the guys selling systems on the Internet that claimed to be floor traders with yrs of experience.

 

What happened to all of their money?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Excellent post. The ramifications of it I am first feeling now....after 15 yrs of trading. TRADING FOR MOST OF US WILL NEVER BE WORTH IT BECAUSE.....We can never do both...1-pay our bills from our winnings, and compound our money until our acct is big enough to make us rich.

 

I am a winning trader. I win consistantly. But waht good is making 50% a year which is better than Warren does if all of that and more goes for living expenses. Its a guarantee to go broke.

 

The guy who gets into trading as a hobby,with the goal to slowly learn, and the ultimate goal to add extra income to his nest egg,will likely be the one to become the next Buffett!

 

Are we all blind when we start trading? Why do we not do the math and ask ourselves...How will we ever have the size trading account we need if we cant even make enough to pay all our bills?

 

Unless we have a wife who works that dont mind paying the bills..............this is a movie that will usually have a very sad ending. Look at all the guys selling systems on the Internet that claimed to be floor traders with yrs of experience.

 

What happened to all of their money?

 

I'm hoping to have a nicely sized account before I move out of my parent's house. If I could get at least 250,000 dollars that would be enough because with margin it would be half a million, and I know I can at least make 20% which would be more than enough to live on.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
So what does everyone think? Do scalpers collect enough pennies throughout the day? Or do the swing traders make more compounding their position?

 

MMS

 

Very good scalper I heard make more money than very good swing traders but on the average the former group makes a lot less than the latter. Scalping was invented in the pits I think and now with HFT it is difficult to do it from home unless you collocate expensive hardware.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am a winning trader. I win consistantly. But waht good is making 50% a year which is better than Warren does if all of that and more goes for living expenses. Its a guarantee to go broke.

 

Are we all blind when we start trading? Why do we not do the math and ask ourselves...How will we ever have the size trading account we need if we cant even make enough to pay all our bills?

 

That's exactly the point and math behind this question - all in favour of scalping, if you want to grow your account, that is. Swing trading is for those with serious accounts, like 200,000 USD at the very least. Then you can trade longer timeframes at your leisure risking no more than 0.5 pct of account per trade and make a living. If you make 30 pct a year, that's 60K, not a fortune but good enough to start with as a swing trader.

 

But if you start small, you've got to be scalping intraday, unless you can afford to spend a century to get rich. And for competent intraday scalpers a daily profit goal is easily 5 pct of account risking 1-2 pct of account per trade. Do the maths of compounding and you'll see the allure of scalping - there's virtually no limit to how fast you can build your account: start with 10K, make 2 pct of account per day on average risking 1 pct per trade and you'll have doubled your account in less than two months, and on and on.

 

One more circumstance in favour of scalping is that, like it or not, the market is range-bound most of the time - exactly the ideal conditions for scalping.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
There is also no limit to how fast you can ........ blow your account.

 

Having winning trades is easy.

 

Holding and building an account, which can't be rushed, is the hard part.

 

Do you mean holding a trade or holding a growing account? I think most of us have trouble with the latter by becoming careless, not executing the strategy, feeling like we're now rich enough to experiment and risk more to get even richer, not following risk and money management rules etc., etc. But that's a matter of psychology and discipline, not of one strategy being better over the other.

 

Meanwhile, as far as strategy goes, I'd like to share this article: To scalp or swing trade? That is the question . My takeway from this article, coupled with the realization about the laws that govern price movement in the markets, is that part-scalping/part-swinging is the best strategy:

- first off, provided a strategy with an edge and disciplined execution is place, intraday trading will build the account much faster

- that's because in the lower timeframes you'll get many nice and quite broad channels and ranges with high probability setups and even good trends whereas all you see on the higher TF is unreliable congestion,

- the best strategy is mainly scalp and leave a smaller swing position on (set to break even) for a possible major breakout; if the breakout doesn't happen, you've gotten something out of the trade, no worries, take a rest, do new analysis and take it from there.

- as emphasized in the article, this approach is very motivating psychologically, because you get a scalp out of most of your trades, and if the major breakout does happen, you're already positioned for a good swing (and enter with new scalps along the way).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The trader who have proper market analytical skill and who knows to manage money and risk properly makes more money. If you do not possess this skills than you have to select appropriate broker to do that work for you. I have been trading since 3 years and I have earned a lot through my Broker.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

According to me I think , You can earn money from various sources , but In Forex you have to pass a long time with great patience if you want to earn mney from here, and you have to ensure a reliable support from a credible trading broker , because the broker can affects the result of our trading with certainly.
 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A person who is aware of the recent trends and the one who knows where and when to invest makes more money.

We should know before investing that what's the score scope of investing in a long or short term investment, we should know the difference. Once, things are clear we can generate more profit.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 12/12/2019 at 6:52 AM, Debby_Tompkins said:

A person who is aware of the recent trends and the one who knows where and when to invest makes more money.

We should know before investing that what's the score scope of investing in a long or short term investment, we should know the difference. Once, things are clear we can generate more profit.

And not only that. Knowing your own psychological problems is fundamental. Not everyone is ready for this kind of market's trading.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date : 16th April 2021. Market Update – Pricing in a solid global recovery again. Treasuries posted strong and very surprising gains, overlooking robust data and a solid rally on Wall Street. It was something of a buy-the-fact trade as hefty data was the well advertised risk (Retail sales surged 9.8% in March and climbed 8.4% excluding autos & Initial Jobless Claims tumbled -193k to 576k). The 10-year yield dropped 10 bps to 1.530%, the lowest in a month. The break of key technical levels added to the bid, with some haven demand too amid virus and vaccine worries, along with some geopolitical risks. The USA500 and the USA30 reached record highs thanks to strong data that supported the recovery narrative, along with hefty earnings, and the drop in yields. The USA100 outperformed with a better than 1% jump and is back over 14,000 for the first time since mid-February. As Refinitiv reported, USA100 traders were all bulled up buying the tech breakout yesterday after the USA100 rallied 10%. BUT we should keep an eye on technicals as RSI has reached overbought levels. Elsewhere, Asia markets were largely steady after China reported a sharp acceleration in first quarter growth, though the reading slightly undershot expectations while retail sales bounced strongly last month. For Europe, GER30 and UK100 futures are currently up 0.3% and 0.1% respectively. In FX markets, EURUSD is little changed at 1.1968, while GBPUSD dropped back to 1.3761. USDJPY is little changed at 108.79. AUD and NZD fell slightly below yesterday’s peak. USOIL extended gains to 63.84. Gold held steady near a more than one-month high on Friday, en route to its second straight weekly gain, boosted by a drop in US Treasury yields and a weaker Dollar. Today – Today’s data calendar focuses on final Eurozone inflation readings for March and February trade data also for the Eurozone. US Building permits, housing starts and Michigan Index are also on tap. Biggest (FX) Mover – (EURGBP @ 07:30 GMT -0.43%) The asset rallied to 0.8710 retesting the 7-week highs for a 3rd time. Intraday the fast MAs aligned higher, RSI is at 66, while MACD is positive but signal line holds at neutral. ATR (H1) at 0.00061 and ATR (Daily) at 0.00488. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date : 15th April 2021. Q1 Earnings Season – BAC and Citigroup. This week the key Q1 Earnings season kicks off in earnest, with many of the major US banks reporting and expected to massively beat consensus, something that could please the bulls. But will this be the case? And if yes, then what? As Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan stated, Q1 is the peak in terms of earnings growth; even though the absolute level of growth will still be very healthy, deceleration is a powerful force in the market. Nevertheless, investors seem to be waiting for new catalysts before pushing valuations out much further and the earnings season provides a major focus against the background of conflicting virus and vaccine headlines. Hence the earnings slate remains busy for the remainder of the week, and will include reports from UnitedHealth Group, Bank of America, Pepsico, Citigroup, BlackRock, U.S. Bancorp, Truist Financial, PPG, Delta Airlines, J.B. Hunt, Morgan Stanley, HDFC Bank, PNC Financial, Bank of New York Mellon, State Street, Kansas City Southern, Citizens Financial, Ally Financial. Hence the focus today turns to Bank of America and Citigroup Inc. and their first Quarter earnings release for 2021. The Bank of America (#BankofAmerica OR BOA) consensus recommendation is “Buy”, even though revenues are expected to miss as earnings are likely to exceed according to the majority of the consensus recommendations from the Eikon Reuters terminal. According to Zacks Investment Research, the report for the fiscal Quarter ending March 2021 is expected to experience a near quarter rally of its Earnings Per Share (EPS) compared to last year, at 0.65 from0.65from0.40. Reuters Eikon predicts similar EPS, while the company’s revenue is seen depreciating slightly from a year ago to $22.03 billion (Eikon) with a mean change at 3.63%. The BOA has surpassed earnings forecasts in the last two quarters, driven by a positive decline in provisions of credit losses on a sequential basis, while its revenues have suffered due to weakness in core banking, which it is strongly dependent on. As Forbes stated, the company witnessed an 11% y-o-y drop in net interest income, which contributes around 50% of the total revenues. Despite the fact that the financial sector has been a major beneficiary of the “reflation” trade and the 1.9 trillion Stimulus Bill and the proposed1.9trillionStimulusBillandtheproposed2.25 trillion Infrastructure Bill, which are all likely to continue benefitting the banking sector, the net interest drop led to a drop in the full year 2020 BOA revenues, despite a 20% jump in the Global Markets segment driven by higher sales & trading and investment banking revenues. In regards to Citigroup now, things are slightly different as the bank’s pandemic reserves are worth almost 10% of the bank’s market capitalisation. However as more and more Americans are vaccinated and the government releases more stimulus, the more the pressure from the banks’ credit models will be for the banks to release some of the cash. This means Citgroup will face less pressure than other big banks. On top of the above, Citigroup is in general in a better setup as higher trading activity in the securities market and a jump in underwriting deal volumes boosted trading and investment banking revenues for all the main banks and Citigroup was no different. Further, with the stimulus and possible vaccination development (so far 119 million people have received the Covid-19 vaccine in the US), provisions are expected to see a further decrease in Q1 2021, boosting its profitability. Hence Citigroup is expected to report adjusted earnings of 2.60, in comparison with the2.60,incomparisonwiththe1.06 EPS reported for the same quarter last year. The revenue is seen at $18.82 billion, according to Eikon group analysts estimates, nearly 9% lower than Q1 2020. From a technical perspective, whatever the outcomes are, much is anticipated from the numbers of Bank of America and Citigroup, both banks are expected to outperform the consensus estimates for earnings, while revenues are likely to fall short of expectations. Both banks remain technically Bullish, trading north of their respective 20- and 50-day moving averages. Today #Citigroup is at 72.90,[/B] below its 2021 highs at 72.90,[/B]belowits2021highsat[B]76.13 but still in 3-year high territory. #BankofAmerica is at 39.86, just a breath below all record highs with next Resistance areas at the Fibonacci extensions, at the 39.86[/B],justabreathbelowallrecordhighswithnextResistanceareasattheFibonacciextensions,atthe[B]42 and $45.30 levels. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date : 14th April 2021. Market Update – World stocks hit record high. Market News Today – Treasuries erased early gains, but bond markets across Asia remained supported, after investors shrugged off the hotter than expected US inflation number yesterday and focused on the successful 30-year bond auction. Global stock markets rose to a record high on Wednesday as bond yields eased after data showed US inflation was not rising wildly as the economy reopens. As Reuters reported, Johnson & Johnson’s shares slid 1.34% after US federal health agencies recommended pausing the rollout of its COVID-19 vaccine for at least a few days, after six women developed rare blood clots. Setbacks to vaccination rollouts have raised concerns about the global economic recovery. New Zealand’s RBNZ left policy settings unchanged and confirmed its commitment to an expansionary policy, which helped to underpin the rise in Australia and New Zealand bonds. A sharp sell off in one of China’s largest bad-debt managers attracted attention and rekindled concerns over credit markets. Bloomberg also reported that Tencent Holdings Ltd is holding off marketing a planned dollar bond deal. Central banks remain focused on providing stimulus and the hotter than expected US inflation number hasn’t re-booted reflation trades so far, as negative vaccine headlines added to the already concerning outlook for EU supply. In FX markets, the USD was steady to lower after yesterday’s decline in Treasury yields and USDJPY fell back to 108.96. AUD and NZD gained. Both EUR and GBP lifted against a largely weaker Dollar, with EURUSD currently at 1.1964 and Cable at 1.3777. USOIL meanwhile is trading at 60.73 per barrel. Bitcoin hit a record above 60.73perbarrel.[B]Bitcoin[/B]hitarecordabove[B]64,500, extending its 2021 rally as Coinbase shares are due to list in the United States. Gold held up well against the USD. Today – Data releases today are unlikely to change the overall outlook, but include Eurozone production data for February and inflation numbers out of Sweden. Comments from ECB’s Guindos will also be in focus. US calendar has March trade prices but earnings to headline with JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc GS.N among the companies reporting. Biggest (FX) Mover – (NZDUSD @ 07:30 GMT +0.61%) The NZDUSD spiked higher on the largely USD weakness and after the RBNZ statement. The asset broke its 1-week resistance and turned above R2 and the round 0.7100 level. Currently fast MAs and MACD lines are aligned higher but RSI and Stochastics have started turning lower, suggesting a potential pullback. ATR (H1) at 0.00119 and ATR (Daily) at 0.00566. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • covid illustrates 'the extraordinary madness of crowds' and that  young people are more skeered of covid than older people is a sign of effective psyops ... just sayin' https://www.naturalnews.com/2021-04-11-5-dumbest-things-americans-doing-more-susceptible-covid19-mutations.html
    • Date : 13th April 2021. Q1 Earnings Season – The Banks. This week the key Q1 Earnings season kicks off in earnest with many of the major US banks reporting. Q1 earnings are seen as key for setting the tone of company performances as the post-pandemic timeframe gains momentum as the vaccination rate continues to climb and states continue to open up. Overall the US equity markets closed at all-time highs again last week, with a strong close on Friday just shy of those inter-day highs. The USA500 closed at 4,123, the USA100 at 13,800 and the USA30 at 33,751. The Financial sector has been a major beneficiary of the “reflation” trade and the 1.9 trillion Stimulus Bill and the proposed1.9trillionStimulusBillandtheproposed2.25 trillion Infrastructure Bill, which are all likely to benefit the banking sector in particular. So far 20 of the S&P 500 companies have reported and on average they have beat expectations by 11%, which is over 1.5 times above their average over the last 3 years. Overall expectations for the S&P 500 is for Q1 Earnings to grow by a very significant 25%, which would be the best performing quarter since President Trump’s tax cut inspired Q1 2018. Additionally, what is more encouraging is that estimates have been rising as the Earnings Season arrives; normally they start to decline as the data starts to emerge. Back in late February/early March consensus was for 22% Q1 growth. This enthusiasm is tempered by the high valuations the S&P500 is running currently; forward earnings are currently projected at 22.3 times whereas in a normal economic cycle the historical average is 15 times earnings, hence the scepticsim over further growth from here. However, overall 2021 earnings growth remains very robust and is penciled in at 26.5% versus a -12.6% decline for 2020. Another key drag on future growth in 2021 is President Biden’s proposed increase in Corporation Tax to 28% from 21%; estimates suggest that this could reduce earnings by 7.4% for 2021. Earnings season kicks off significantly tomorrow, (April 14) with big banks leading the charge. Reports are due from JP Morgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and First Republic Bank. Later in the week there will be data from Bank of America, Citigroup, BlackRock, U.S. Bancorp, Truist Financial, Morgan Stanley, HDFC Bank, PNC Financial, Bank of New York Mellon, State Street, Citizens Financial, Ally Financial. Whatever the outcome, much is anticipated from the numbers and tomorrow (April 14) JP Morgan are first up at 12:00 GMT with expectations of an Earnings per share (EPS) of 3.10[/B] and revenues increasing 5% to 3.10[/B]andrevenuesincreasing530.10 billion, this is followed by Goldman Sachs at 12:25 GMT with consensus numbers of an EPS at 9.79 and revenues also up to 9.79[/B]andrevenuesalsoupto[B]11.71 billion and also before the bell tomorrow is Wells Fargo at 13:05 GMT with an expected EPS of 0.69 on revenues of 0.69[/B]onrevenuesof[B]17.41 billion. Last time JPM and Goldman Sachs both beat on both revenue and EPS numbers significantly whilst Wells Fargo missed, disappointing the markets. All three key banks remain technically Bullish trading north of their respective 20-day moving averages. On Monday (April 12) JPM closed at 153.07, a few dollars shy of the March 18 high at 153.07[/B],afewdollarsshyoftheMarch18highat[B]157.18, Goldman Sachs closed down 2% at 324, some 324[/B],some[B]23 below the March 18 high, whilst Wells Fargo closed at 39.98 off 1.93% for the day and 39.98[/B]off1.930.89 below the close on March 18. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.