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Thanks for taking the time to answer my questions. Btw your market charts are exceptionally clear and well thought out, like your answers.


Can you tell me what your win rate is and ROI % ?


Also which of the markets that you trade do you find trend best ?


Which futures emini or Forex pair would you suggest for a beginner to trade ?


Hey Henry, sorry it took so long for me to get back to ya... been a bit busy, and only trading lightly...


to answer your question about win rate at ROI% is... for my futures trades my win rate is about 60%-65%. It's been that way for a long time now. My futures trades make about just as much on my winners, as I lose on my losers. Of course, this is all true if I'm not "trading emotionally stupid". However, I've managed to shield my futures account from the vast majority of such, because I only trade futures when I feel up to engaging the market on a tick by tick basis...and when that happens, I usually tend to be in a good place, psychologically speaking.


I don't actually track % ROI for my futures trading, I just track dollar amount, average size winner/average size loser, and drawdown (all done on a weekly and monthly basis). it's a pretty high percentage, in terms of percentage... but I primarily determine my risk on each trade by how much I'm willing to risk in terms of dollars (usually between $50 - $200, sometimes up to $300). my monthly take in futures trading typically ranges maybe $500 - $3,000... however, over the last 24 months, my best month has been well over 10k, my worst month, about 4K loss. Because this year has been "bad" for me so far, I have been risking much less on any given situation, so my recent monthly P/L average is smaller than it has been historically for me.


My win rate with my spot forex trading is about 75%... but that is deceiving, because it includes trades that have stopped out for a very small profit (net of 1-5 pips on original position at entry). If I discard those trades, it's about 55%-60%, but my winners are bigger than my losers by about 1.5R:1R


In spot forex I typically make about 4%-8% per month, a bad month is typically down between 1% - 5%, a good month may be 10% - 12%... but again, this year has been tough for me, and I managed to about halve my spot profits this year in just a few days (this occured almost 2 months ago now) due to emotional BS. Since then, it's been back and forth, though I feel i've addressed most of those "leaks", and has been stable the last few weeks, so I'm expecting to keep consistent now for the rest of the year (which will be a contrast from the first part of the year)


Gee... as far as what market for a beginner to trade... that's actually a very tough question for me to answer for you. I would need to know more about what you are expecting from your trading, your own trading style right now, your time constraints, your capital base, etc...


I will say this... if I HAD to give you an answer without such information... I would say something like: Don't limit yourself to a single market. Look for the absolutely strongest opportunities, and take them in whatever market they present themselves in.

As far as spot forex goes, I would look to trade the strongest against the weakest market, but I would wait for a very specific criteria to set up... let me explain and give you a few pics... i'll do so in the next post here because It may be something for everyone to learn from...

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About 2 days ago, there was one heck of a good trading opportunity in the EUR/CAD.


It was one of those days, that the market just moves relentlessly in one direction. However, many people may have missed the opportunity, because it had in fact moved relentlessly in one direction the day prior, and "usually", after strong one directional moves


This may not always be able to be "predicted" ahead of time... but here is a specific concept that any trader can make good use of. It does require some discretion, and it does require some patience... but it's about as "no lose" a situation as one will find in the forex markets.


Essentially, it is this:


Find two pairs comprised of 3 different currencies, with both pairs showing clear evidence of moving in a particular direction (either both up, or both down)... then look to take the strongest market long against the weakest market.


As usual, this is easier to show than tell.


Lets take a daily chart of the USD/CAD, the EUR/USD.


As you can see from the pics attached, the same day that the USD/CAD makes a nice bullish "pinbar" (implying the next 24-48 hours will see price move up, rather than down)... we also have a very strong bullish "breakout" candle on the EUR/USD (also implying, that the EUR/USD will see price move up over the next 24-48 hours).


So, if you follow this to it's logically conclusion... it looks like the next day, the USD is very likely to be bullish against the CAD


It also looks like the EUR is very likely to be bullish against the USD.


So, if the CAD is weaker than the USD, and the EUR is stronger than the USD, well, gee, it probably stands to reckon the BEST trading opportunity will be somewhere in the EUR/CAD... to the LONG side!


The last pic is a 30 min chart of the EUR/CAD.... as it moved on the day following the bullish candles in the USD/CAD and EUR/USD.


As you can see in the intraday pic of the EUR/CAD, we didn't really even pull back at all. It just went vertical the entire day.


Without knowing more about you or your trading style, this is probably the best overall general recommendation I could make for you. Look for this type of situation. It doesn't occur every day, maybe not even every week, but it will set up in the major forex currencies maybe 3-4 times a month, and those are the days where you really can't go wrong if you just go with a long trade in the strongest market, and a short in the weakest market.


One very simple way to trade it (which I personally do not do, but it would likely provide a decent edge) would be when you see such a situation, just go long the strongest market, and short the weakest market, just as the NY session closes at 5:00 am E.S.T.


If it is a bullish situation (like this weeks EUR/CAD setup was...) Put a stop under the low of the previous day, and put a target of equal distance. These are not likely to be hit, but they are just your "emergency stop" and "celebration target".


Now, hold the trade for 24 hours exactly, and close it out the next day.


The odds of closing above yesterdays close is significantly greater than closing below yesterdays close.... and furthermore, because you are trading such a strong market flow, even if your trade loses...it is likely that your losing trades will be somewhat small (losing days in this situation usually end up as small doji like candles, so small losses), and winning days will be much like this example, where you could capture 85-90+ pips.


Anyway... what i've just spelled out here WILL WORK. it WILL MAKE A PROFIT. Of course, the "magic" is in knowing what pinbars or engulfing or range expansion breakout candles are "quality", and which ones to ignore due to circumstances in the market (such as, looking to go short a market that just sold of 1000 pips in 5 weeks, and is retesting a yearly low.... etc)


I hope this helps...lemme know if it does. Also, if you care to either send a PM, or skype, or post here even more about your trading background and style, i could probably give you a better answer.




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hey all, I'm going to be doing some real intraday "scalping" analysis this coming week. It'll be in some of the various futures markets. going to be using some "market profile" like concepts, as well as some VSA style concepts, and of course good ol' price action, S/R levels, multiple TF analysis, etc.


This is going to be geared towards the true "day trader". my average hold time for trades of this sort is around 20-30 minutes, and I might take anywhere from 3 - 6 or even more entries and exits during the first 4 hours of the U.S. open (when both london and the U.S. are trading actively).


I may do a bit around the london session, but I plan on focusing primarily on setups that develop or are ready to go come the U.S. session open.


And for this, I will likely do a little conference chat and possibly screen sharing via skype. I may do something through anymeeting as a screen sharing service, but for questions, answers, discussions, etc... it will be via skype.


So, if your reading this, and your still struggling to make consistent profits, guys, i don't know how to say this any other way... you should drop by.


once upon a time, I came across a few good resources for trading that opened doors to various aspects of market analysis that I didn't know existed, and those are the "secrets" that helped me take this into a full time business.


I'm "distilling" down a lot of what i've learned into some powerful concepts in which to both understand the markets, and how to quantify that understanding to determine high probability setups.


If your not trading full time, but you don't care to check out (for free) what at least one profitable trader does in detail to make money on a regular basis in the markets.... well, i'm really not sure what to say, except... thanks for being a liquidity provider for those of us who do this full time.


for those who are interested in watching some live trading and real time trading analysis, send me a PM, or post on this thread that you are interested. I will have a day and time over this coming weekend posted up for those who "RSVP".


If you don't post your interest on this thread, or send me a PM, then i'm not going to bother trying to block out a segment of my trading day to give a free chat room webinar on a couple of ways that you can apply to make money in the markets consistently.


If I get 4 RSVP's, i'll do it. Otherwise, not. This is for free and fun, so if you want to learn more, RSVP either in this thread or via PM, and lets get ready to do some real trading, and make some pips :)



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Well, ended up making about 0.45% today in spot, and had a few trades in futures as well, though they only made a couple bucks.


have a good weekend all. will post up the live trading times this weekend.


Please rsvp.

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Closed out the 6A long for a 10 tick profit. Don't like how price keeps stalling at the highs, and I feel a bit overexposed with both a spot forex long, and a futures long...


at any rate, 10 ticks is $100 per contract profit... i'll take it

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Well, i'm really not too thrilled with the 6C short, seeing how it's down 13 ticks at the moment... but it looks like it may be running out of steam, and I should be able to get out for a smaller loss, or maybe even a BE....


as for the spot forex trades, i'm looking to take profits on the aud/usd long somewhere between 1.0255 and 1.0260. AUD/CAD probably something just shy of 1.0170. usd/cad... still not sure.

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    • Thanks for your suggestions man!! Our own decision surely makes us or breaks us. Thanks once again, buddy.
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