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ForexTraderX

Watch A Typical Day Of A Real Day Trader

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Well...i'm liking the EUR/AUD long setup mroe and more as the day rolls on. I've got a decent position in it now... and would love to see price develop in such a way that doesn't shake me out early...because I feel if this can break out, we could move 80-100 pips up easy.

 

right now, at 1.2534...my entries have been between 1.2511 and 1.2535

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Well, i'm currently long in the USD/CAD, from around 0.9905, and the EUR/CAD from around 1.2885ish...

 

I also have that EUR/AUD long still going, but i'm starting to think it may not work out as I would like... time will tell, but regardless, I am happy with my overall prospects here.

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Also, seems we have some pretty significant news for the U.S coming out in about 15-20 minutes. My expectation is that the USD/CAD will sell off between 15-35 pips, and the AUD/USD will push up quickly about to about 1.0410... but after that initial low liquidity push... the USD will start to gain on both and will likely continue this trend into the end of the london session.

 

Not exactly sure if this is how it'll all play out, but this is where my bet is.

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Well, it would have been nicer for my trades to see the U.S numbers be a little worse than they were.... but I'm still fairly confident that this will be the leg up in the USD/CAD that moves us into parity.

 

Time will tell, but so far, things are looking about how I would expect them to look...which is decent

 

At this point, the only trade that I'm really wondering about is the EUR/AUD long... I would like to see it push back up to at least 1.2520...which is about 15 pips above whre it currently is at.

 

if we can do that in the next couple hours, then i'll look OK If we can't do that by the close or london or near the close of the U.S session...well, then I will know that they likelyhood of it becoming a successful trade is very slim indeed.

 

FTX

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Also, I got a small long entry on the EUR/USD. I read ealier that stops are resting around 1.2950ish... but part of my postiion has stops somewhat below that price...so even if there is further downside movement, I'll make a profit on this as long as the euro doens't fall apart and plunge through the lows it established over the last 24 hours (wihich is unlikely, given the better than expected U.S. data numbers)

 

FTX

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Here's a picture of a 4hr chart of the EUR/GBP.... I like it for a long opportunity mostly because the market is oversold, and this is the only level around for a while...

 

kinda similar to the AUD/CAD and the AUD/USD setups from about 2 weeks ago... not as good... but still, absolutly worth trading.

EUR-GBP-long-trade.thumb.jpg.205abc37033b37c69415501a5ed5a85e.jpg

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Good stuff, I look forward to sharing my trading insights.

 

Hey William, thanks for the post. And I'd love to see this thread become more of a dialogue and less of a monologue!

 

What markets/asset classes do you trade? how long have you been trading? do you trade full time?

 

can you give a brief overview of your method or approach to trading?

 

Looking forward to your answers...

 

FTX

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Ok... so this would be redundant and just lame if it wasn't so darn profitable... but, again, i'm looking to short CAD, primiarly against USD, and then EUR next.

 

Of course, I've esssentially had something invested in a USD/CAD long I think every day for the last 8 trading days. And i've had similar positions in the EUR/CAD..... though it has underperformed the USD/CAD over the last few days... and to be honest... I'm less convinced of my "bullish euro" medium-long term view... At very least, it looks to test lower levels before it pushes up to retest the high the last few weeks (IF it retests the high... )

 

I do think we need to see more pushes to the extreme of this range between 1.28 and 1.31ish on both sides if we are going to drop, and very likely down to retest the bottom if we are going to break out the top.

 

Also the DX chart looks pretty darn bullish as of this moment... I'm seeing the dollar index about to take off to the upside, and that will bode poorly for any bullish euro move.

 

I'm going to take some time this weekend and do a more in depth research study of the various headlines, data trends, expectations...etc... that are currenlty driving sentiment in the euro, and then look hard at what catalysts could emerge that could alter this. I haven't done much more than read a few articles every day, and watch my newsfeed.... but I feel there is something more influencial at play, and it just feels like i'm missing what that could be. So, I'll do some work this weekend, and then I'll probably have a more informed "long view" as well as "directional bias" than I do now.

 

but CAD is definately the short of the month! Oh, and for right now.... and probably the rest of this week, I woulnd't look to short the dollar. I'm not saying a dollar short wouldn't make a few pips or ticks if someone so desires.

 

I'm just saying its easier and usually more profitable to try to take 20 pips out of a short CAD...than it would be to try to take 20 pips out of a short USD

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After spending a bit more time looking over charts, correlated markets, etc... I actually see that the level I'm long from in the EUR/GBP is NOT the only significant level for a few hundered pips. Actually, there is a better level at 0.8000, and then a decent level 20 pips lower again, at 0.7980.

 

so, i've reduced my position by over half. I''ll hold the rest until it stops out...if it stops out...but I could clearly spent more time on this and figured out that it wasn't quite the trade I thought it was.

 

Something for the notebook to work on...

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Looks like the "USD/CAD to PARITY" rallying cry that I've been drooling about is finally here.

 

And, I've still got something open in the USD/CAD.

 

I'm taking a tiny bit off when we hit parity...then letting the rest of the small position that's still on move up towards 1.0010-1.0015

 

So, this actuallly was a really really sweet trading situation.

 

I had a good working hypothesis, as well as indicators and technical signals that strongly supported my reasoning.

 

I had a pretty good perspective on what to expect, with a few exceptions of course but over all this USD/CAD for the last 2 weeks has performed about as good as I could have hoped for.

 

Most importantly (for me anyway) is that I continued to hold a position in the USD/CAD for almost the entire duration of the move. I did trade around it quite a bit, yes.... but the fact that I held something from around 9780 up through parity, and over the course of 2 weeks is a decent accomplishment for me, and I'm actually quite proud of this whole thing.

 

Not to mention I'm up over 5% for the two eeks I've traded this....so ya, all things considered, pretty decent.

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Just closed out the last bit of my position in the USD/CAD and the EUR/CAD.... just realized it's friday, and I don't care to mess around on friday after london closes.

 

So, that brings another week in the markets to an end. Looks like I finished out this week up about 1.4%, and for the month just half a trade away from 10%

 

I still have 3 trading days left in the month, so I should have no problem hitting 10%.

 

BUt, at this point, I will not allow myself to finish the month with anything less than 7%.

 

As some of you may have noticed, I just raised this number from 6% to 7%. That's because I have a trailing stop loss on my account equity, just as I sometimes trail a stop in my own trades. The reason is simple: A person can't lose what a person doesn't risk.... and if money has been made by taking risks, money can be saved by reducing those risks.

 

It's still a bit too early to tell, but it does indeed look like I"ll have a strong finish to the year. It is very unlikely that it is the triple digit return that I had last year... it's probably going to be more like 35%-45%... but that's still better than a poke in the eye. This being said, I don't want to get ahead of myself....

 

After a slow september (made just over 3%), it's really nice to have an above average October to round it out. Now I'm gonna relax a bit.... it's been a fun ride so far... I hope to get back on and continue in a couple days.

 

FTX

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Well... I feel I have some clarity coming into this wee as to what is going to be moving up, and what will be moving down.

 

i'll go more into the analysis a bit later, but I'm probably most bullish on the dollar... and the yen shortly behind.

 

I'm still extremely bearish on the CAD... but now I'm also more bearish on the euro than I have been in a while, and i'm probably most bearish on the AUD...maybe even more than the CAD for the next couple days.

 

I'd say USD and JPY strongest, GBP behind that, then EUR and CHF and possibly NZD behind that, then the weakest should be CAD...and maybe AUD at the very bottom of the pack.

 

as for my trades, i'm long right now the GBP/AUD from around 1.5485ish, the USD/CAD from around 9950ish, and the EUR/CAD from around 1.2770ish. My biggest position is on the USD/CAD long.

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Here is a daily chart of the GBP/AUD. I've included some notes on why i'm bullish, and where I think would be good prices to get in at.

 

also, when i mention the 50% fib retrcement, i am referring to drawing a fib of the high and low of friday.

GA-daily-bullish-pinbar.thumb.jpg.5ecb8e19656c92a8eb90466a8a4e576a.jpg

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Ok... so, essentially, one significant part of the USD/CAD analysis that led me to conclude a long trade was a likely outcome was the way that various highs and lows had been developing over the past weeks, as well as which highs and lows had been retested, and which ones hadn't... as well as how significant various highs and lows were likely to be (for instance... a weekly high is more significant than a session high, usually because a weekly high is going to have a higher concentration of buy stops just above it than a typical session high would.)

 

So, with that in mind, take a look at the following charts. See if you can start to understand how I'm looking at situations like the USD/CAD long opportunity last week......

 

Henry... let me know if this sheds some light on my reasons for taking the USD/CAD long. Thanks.

 

FTX

 

Thanks ForexTraderX:

 

Yes you cleared up a lot of my confusion about how you selected your winning USD/CAD long trade. The chart explanations were great. Just lots of good technical analysis on your part.

 

Henry1000

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Hey henry, I just made a post on another thread on this site that covered some other, seperate aspects of my thought process that went into developing my directional bias.

 

Some of these elements I mention don't apply specifically to the "double top" you brought up, but they DO apply in general as to how I develop my long term directional bias in situations just like this USD/CAD one we've been discussing.

 

Here is a link to that post. Read it, and let me know if this helps shed some light on how I do my analysis...

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/futures/14233-never-catch-falling-knife-5.html#post164584

 

Hello ForexTraderX:

 

That's a great detailed post you made in the other thread, and yes that helps alot to explain your analysis and how you determine a directional bias. Great detail in your Canadian dollar COT graphic too.

 

Where do you get your Canadian dollar-COT charts ? Is it from "www.upperman.com" which you mentioned in a previous post ?

 

Thank You

 

Henry1000

Edited by henry1000

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Hey guys... another thing that I use on a regular basis is order flow information that is sent out in my newsfeed.

 

...

 

FTX

 

Hello ForexTraderX:

 

Your newsfeed sounds great. Which newsfeed are you using ?

 

Thanks

 

Henry1000

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I think this should just about be the low of the day in the USD/CAD... news may push price into 9885, but I don't see it dropping much lower today...or really at all, until we test parity.

 

Darn good shooting ForexTraderX, on picking this bar as the low of the day in the USD/CAD. Is that because it was a pin bar on the 30 min chart and the bar went below the last significant low on Oct. 23 ?

 

Also what is so special about parity – USD/CAD = 1.0000 ? Is it just a psychological thing or is there some thing else ?

 

Thanks

 

Henry1000

 

:cheers:

Edited by henry1000

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Hello ForexTraderX:

 

In post #2 on this thread you showed some nice charts of NZD versus a weighted basket of major currencies. What is your source for these kinds of charts ?

 

Thank You

 

Henry1000

Edited by henry1000

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Hello ForexTraderX:

 

I have a limit order question for you. When placing a limit order on spot Forex the order requires a lower bound entry an upper bound entry to define the price range you want your limit order to execute in. Let's say the goal is to buy when price exceeds a certain resistance level. If the range is too narrow price may zoom past your range and you miss the trade. If the range is too large you may end up paying a higher price than you intended. Is there a way to estimate the size this range must be to give a good chance of your limit order being executed ?

 

Thank You

 

Henry1000

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Here is a daily chart of the GBP/AUD. I've included some notes on why i'm bullish, and where I think would be good prices to get in at.

 

also, when i mention the 50% fib retrcement, i am referring to drawing a fib of the high and low of friday.

 

Hello ForexTraderX:

 

On this daily GBP/AUD setup on 11-4-2012 the market went down instead of up as expected. Of course trade setups are never going to work 100%. So would a trader simply reverse and go short below the 11-2-2012 pin bar low and expect a move to at least to the next significant low level ?

 

I think a short could have been justified since on a the daily chart if one looks back further to the 8-7-2012 Lo, the retrace to that low from the 10-7-2012 Hi on 11-2-2012 was only 38% and a 50% retrace from that level would have been the more likely expectation given the previous strong move down from the May. 23, 2012 Hi to the 8-7-2012 Lo. On 11-14-2012 price had almost reached the 61.8% retrace level.

 

See attached chart.

 

Thank You

 

Henry1000

GBP_AUD_20121119_Daily_61_8_Retrace.thumb.jpg.413c8d0cde6869a78cc23752367671d4.jpg

Edited by henry1000

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