Watch A Typical Day Of A Real Day Trader

[ForexTraderX 10]

Here is a 1 min chart of the E/U futures.... i'm posting it to show the volume changes as the gap was filled, not to mention the aggressive buying interest by larger players.

[ForexTraderX 10]

Oh...yea.... the 1 min chat is forming a CLASSIC basiing pattern, 5 min showing nice pinbars... and the gap fill, with my already explained upward bias in EUR in general.... I'm super happy to get long here.

 

Doesn't mean it'll work of course! Just means I have clarity on this setup, and to quote cloggie from over at forex factory: "Clarity is more important than certainty"

[ForexTraderX 10]

I think the EUR/USD should have no problem retesting 1.3090 before it hits 1.3040.

 

it's at 1.3060 now. Of course, i'm wrong a lot... but this feels like a fake out to me.

 

If it's broken, i'll be looking at 1.3020-1.3010 for a possible long, and then again down at 1.2990, and then 1.2930, and then, 1.2900, and 1.2860.

 

 

Truth is, these situations tend to frustrate me, as they have so many decent levels so closely spaced together. In these cases, best to wait for price action confirmation, and a little volume spike wouldn't hurt either.

 

After that... i'll have to re-evaluate my perspective... but truthfully, if we get so much as a 20-25 pip bounce off of 1 or two of these levels, i'll put myself in a situation where risk is miniized, if not elimiated altogether.

[ForexTraderX 10]

Situations like this in the EUR/USD are particularly nice, because a person can get a fill at, say 1.3060, and take a 15 pip stop or something...and easily go for a 30 pip first target, 60 pip 2nd, 100 pip 3rd target.

 

So, it's vyer possible to get a 4:1, 5:1, 6:1...etc... reward:risk ratio, with a very small initial stop.

 

Not every trade opportunity presents as such, but when they do like this one does, it's almost "stupid" to NOT take the trade. With a 4:1 reward:risk... a person can lose 2 out of 3 trades, and STILL make a profit... so for me, even though I think the EUR/CAD is overall better (and I'm in that)... the tight stops and solid reward:risk ratio I get on this EUR/USD long makes it worth taking, IMO.

[ForexTraderX 10]

Also, the EUR/AUD for a long play from righ here, right now, around 1.2600 is probably really solid as well.

 

Here's a chart of a 1 min of the E/U.... looking pretty good to break upwards...

[ForexTraderX 10]

I'll probably take something off the EUR/USD long at 20-30 pips.... but my "real" first target will be right around the US session highs today, 1.3118ish. Next target, high of the week, 3rd target, 100 pips up from my entry.

 

This is assuming hte trade works out as I believe it will.. but it no, no biggie. I risked a little to make a lot, and it's a solid opportuity with a confluence of both level, bias, stronger markets against weaker markets, and price action and volume.

 

If I don't take trades like this... .I probably should re-evaluate my career.

 

FTX

[ForexTraderX 10]

I'd even go so far to say that we are within 50 pips of a low in the EUR/USD before we push up again to retest the high of the last 2 weeks... And frankly, I see a break of that high coming as well... but I'm not willing to bet on that last part just yet....

 

however, being right now within 50 pips of the low for the rest of the week? ya, i literallly am betting on that now.

[ForexTraderX 10]

Actually, considering all the correlated markets such as the EUR/COMDOLLS, and the EUR/USD, etc...

 

and now it seems bloomberg is getting in the mix as well here:

 

Dollar Poised to Bounce Versus Canadian Peer: Technical Analysis - Bloomberg

 

Euro May Rise to $1.35 After

 

So... yep. I feel pretty good about what I'm seeing, and I think by the end of this week, we could see the euro really push to retest or break the highs of the last few weeks.... and if we don't see that, I'd expect we see a CAD squeeze as longs start to bail out en-mass.

 

One of these two currencies will move by the end of the week... I'd be somewhat surprised if neither move.... but not at all surpirsed if they BOTH move (cad down, eur up)

[ForexTraderX 10]

well, after a bit of looking and weighing various factors, I'm thinking the easy trades for this evening are likely the GBP/USD short, and then probably the USD/CAD long, and then the 3rd place prize goes to an AUD/USD short...

 

GBP/USD short is probably good all the way up through 1.6220ish... until we can break and hold above that price, I'm looking for short opportunities. For now, anything 1.6130-6150 is a great place to get short. Above that, 1.6170-6200.

 

I'm short now, will get shorter if we can push above 1.6130ish, and i'm targinet around 1.6050, and then lower at 1.5960.

 

Welll shit. First level in GBP/USD didn't hold. 2nd one held perfectly. (the 1.6170-1.6200 I mentioned the other day)... and it just would have hit my target at 1.6050.

 

Oh well... when I'm trading badly (as I did the other day), no amount of great opportunities will help me make money, but it's a reminder to me to make sure I always trade well in every way... because being distracted with an unfortunate market situation not only keeps me focused on sub par trades, but kinda blocks out the necessary frame of mind to take advantage of other, better, trades... like that GBP/USD short i'm watching right now just drop like a rock without me in it....

[ForexTraderX 10]

So, after considering a few other variables in my EUR/USD long trade... I've decided that it's probably not nearly as certain of a thing as I was previously thinking.

 

I still think the trade has merit, so I am leaving a portion of my position on, but I have already closed out over 50% of my original position at a small profit. The reasons for my weaker conviction are as follows:

 

1. US equity markets didn't fare so well today, and the eur/usd has a positive correlation with the S&P. microsoft and google had disppointing announcements, and the U.S. data numbers weren't as hot as one would like for a risk on trade.

 

2. The EUR/USD was in a poorly defined yet obvious consolidation pattern. I realized that unless this move down is actually a reversal.... (which most moves after such consolidation are NOT reversals).... particularly given that the euro is at a significant high price, and thus such a "fake out" is more likley to be an actual bear move, than a fake out to an up and coming bull move.

 

3. correlated markets across the currencies also dropped off. If just the euro dropped a bit, that wouldn't bother me at all.... but considering the drops in the GBP and other risk markets... it tells me that there may be more to this drop than just a simple move to equalibrium from an orderflow imbalance.

 

4. The fact that although my bias in te euro is strongly bullish over the medium term (days to weeks)... I am taking a very aggressive level for an entry... gap fill or no gap fill. Really, I could see price very realisticaly retesting the 1.3020 level, or even lower before it fulfills on my bullish bias (IF it fulfills on my bullish bias at all!)

 

So, again, a bit of overconfidence and I almost missed some important warning signs...

 

So, with these considerations, I had no problem closing most of the position out, leaving just enough on that wouldn't botther me win or lose and even with these new issues coming to light in my analysis.

 

I'd really rather be rested, clear minded, and ready for london when it opens, because london is muc more likley to set the low or high for the day than the asian session is.

 

Really, THE easy trade IMO today is Long in the USD/CAD From between 9800 - 9820... and then lower at 9775-9665as well.

 

I stilll like the EUR/AUD, EUR/CAD and EUR/USD long... but none are as clear as the USD/CAD is for a long opportunity.

[henry1000 10]

So, after considering a few other variables in my EUR/USD long trade... I've decided that it's probably not nearly as certain of a thing as I was previously thinking.

 

I still think the trade has merit, so I am leaving a portion of my position on, but I have already closed out over 50% of my original position at a small profit. The reasons for my weaker conviction are as follows:

 

1. US equity markets didn't fare so well today, and the eur/usd has a positive correlation with the S&P. microsoft and google had disppointing announcements, and the U.S. data numbers weren't as hot as one would like for a risk on trade.

 

2. The EUR/USD was in a poorly defined yet obvious consolidation pattern. I realized that unless this move down is actually a reversal.... (which most moves after such consolidation are NOT reversals).... particularly given that the euro is at a significant high price, and thus such a "fake out" is more likley to be an actual bear move, than a fake out to an up and coming bull move.

 

3. correlated markets across the currencies also dropped off. If just the euro dropped a bit, that wouldn't bother me at all.... but considering the drops in the GBP and other risk markets... it tells me that there may be more to this drop than just a simple move to equalibrium from an orderflow imbalance.

 

4. The fact that although my bias in te euro is strongly bullish over the medium term (days to weeks)... I am taking a very aggressive level for an entry... gap fill or no gap fill. Really, I could see price very realisticaly retesting the 1.3020 level, or even lower before it fulfills on my bullish bias (IF it fulfills on my bullish bias at all!)

 

So, again, a bit of overconfidence and I almost missed some important warning signs...

 

So, with these considerations, I had no problem closing most of the position out, leaving just enough on that wouldn't botther me win or lose and even with these new issues coming to light in my analysis.

 

I'd really rather be rested, clear minded, and ready for london when it opens, because london is muc more likley to set the low or high for the day than the asian session is.

 

Really, THE easy trade IMO today is Long in the USD/CAD From between 9800 - 9820... and then lower at 9775-9665as well.

 

I stilll like the EUR/AUD, EUR/CAD and EUR/USD long... but none are as clear as the USD/CAD is for a long opportunity.

 

Hello ForexTraderX:

 

I don't see why you say “THE easy trade IMO today is Long in the USD/CAD”. On the daily, 4 hour and 1 hour chart it looks like USD/CAD is making a double top to the Oct. 3 High.

 

On your post 309 page 39 you mentioned “a chart of the COT report net positions for both speculators and commercials.” justifying a bullish position for USD/CAD. But technically at this point I don't see an imminent long trade. Please explain.

[henry1000 10]

Hello ForexTraderX:

 

Here's a 4 hour chart of USD/CAD which to me looks likes a double top is coming up to the Oct 3, 2012 Hi and not a good place to go long.

[ForexTraderX 10]

Well, I just got long again in the EUR/USD and still long in the EUR/AUD... eur/usd long from around 1.3050ish...

 

we'll see...

[ForexTraderX 10]

Well, all in all it looks like it turned out to be a pretty good week. Up about 1% at the moment for the day, about 3.5% for the week, and about 7% for the month. I also have about another 0.33% in open positions... and with any luck they will continue to improve into the end of the day, and I can take profits on part of them.

 

If i'm really lucky, i'll be able to get another half a percent in profits while leaving something open in the XXX/CAD pairs.

 

Again, I'm expecting the USD/CAD to push to parity at least, so I'll very likely have something on it until we do at least that. Fact is, if the EUR/USD is continuing it's move up (which I think it may.... this could be the start of the 3rd wave ala elliot wave concept)... and if it does, I'll be long and strong the EUR/CAD.... as I've mentioned before , I think it has the best potential to rise of any other major, cross, or comdoll (of the majors)

 

In spite of the 1 day of dumb trading, it was a solid week over all. I don't know if next week

will have quite the same magnitude of opportunities as this week had (considering CAD weakness)... but, on second thought, it probably will.... I think the CAD is just beginning to see what will eventually be a significant decline of value over the next 12-18 months... and if i'm correct, then we could see it drop by 300-1000 pips during that time, depending on what currency one is trading against it.

 

So this could be just the beginning of the beginning for a readjustment in valuation for the CAD. I suppose time will tell.

 

FInally, thanks to those who asked questions and made comments and got involved. I prefer a dialogue to a monologue, and I think it's more helpful when I can address specific questions or comments than just general market ramblings. So thanks again guys, hope to continue such in the coming weeks.

 

FTX

[ForexTraderX 10]

Closed out the EUR/USD long... doesn't look good right now

[ForexTraderX 10]

Got long 1 last time in the EUR/USD... at around 1.3025

[ForexTraderX 10]

Closed out my EUR/USD long... i'm done with new orders or trades for the day. It's friday, I'm second guessing things, and I'm ready to be done. So, thats it.

 

I may take some profits or adjust my current positions before the end of the day, but for any new trading, that's going to have to wait for next week sometime.

[ForexTraderX 10]

Hello ForexTraderX:

 

Here's a 4 hour chart of USD/CAD which to me looks likes a double top is coming up to the Oct 3, 2012 Hi and not a good place to go long.

 

Well Henry. Your problem is obvious. Your crystal ball is broken. Mine is brand new and working well. Just go back to the gypsy woman, get a refund, and then go and get yourself a proper crystal ball.

 

Ok... that's a really really great question actually. There were actually several good reasons why a long trade would have seemed pretty stupid! First of all, your right about the "double top"...though it wasn't really that...it was absolutely an area that had seen resistance before... Also, the daily chart showed a pretty bearish engulfing type day just previous, so actually I pretty much was breaking my guideline about "don't trade against the daily candlesticks"...etc.

 

I will give you an answer within the next couple of days...probably by sunday or monday.

 

Reason is, i'm going to try to give you EVERYTHING I saw here.... and that's a lot. Furthermore, some of these concepts are going to be new (at least 1 or 2 I can think of you've probably never considered...) and then there are other factors as well that you'll of course be familiar with, but may not have considered in this situation.

 

I'll go more into it all over the next couple of days. May even take a couple of posts...but i'll think about it, write it up, and post it for ya.

 

Thanks again for the questions... glad to answer them for ya.

 

FTX

[henry1000 10]

Well Henry. Your problem is obvious. Your crystal ball is broken. Mine is brand new and working well. Just go back to the gypsy woman, get a refund, and then go and get yourself a proper crystal ball.

 

Ok... that's a really really great question actually. There were actually several good reasons why a long trade would have seemed pretty stupid! First of all, your right about the "double top"...though it wasn't really that...it was absolutely an area that had seen resistance before... Also, the daily chart showed a pretty bearish engulfing type day just previous, so actually I pretty much was breaking my guideline about "don't trade against the daily candlesticks"...etc.

 

I will give you an answer within the next couple of days...probably by sunday or monday.

 

Reason is, i'm going to try to give you EVERYTHING I saw here.... and that's a lot. Furthermore, some of these concepts are going to be new (at least 1 or 2 I can think of you've probably never considered...) and then there are other factors as well that you'll of course be familiar with, but may not have considered in this situation.

 

I'll go more into it all over the next couple of days. May even take a couple of posts...but i'll think about it, write it up, and post it for ya.

 

Thanks again for the questions... glad to answer them for ya.

 

FTX

 

Hello ForexTraderX:

 

My crystal ball is definitely broken. They don't make them like they use to. The Oct 3 resistance level melted like butter. So I am looking forward to your explanation.

 

Henry1000

[henry1000 10]

ForexTraderX:

 

What days of the week and what hours during the day are you trading Forex ?

 

Are there days of the week and certain hours that you consider to be the best times to trade Forex ?

 

Thank You

 

Henry1000

[henry1000 10]

Here's where the moving averages come into play. I lay a 20 on a 50 SMA, and look to see a strong trend. Defined by the fast above the slow in an uptrend, both sloping up, best of all after recent consolidation or congestion. In other words, a picture perfect, smooth, strong, channeling trend on a daily chart.

 

If this is the case, then I DON'T trade this setup against that trend. simple as that.

...

.

 

ForexTraderX:

 

On your # 6 post, page 1 you said you look to see a strong trend as defined by the 20 ema above the 50 ema for a filter. See above quote. I understood that to mean for a long trade you need to see the 20 ema above the 50 ema with both sloping up as a condition for considering a long trade.

 

But on your Oct. 18, 2012 #360 page p 45 you were saying you saw the easy trade for the day to be long USD/CAD. But on the daily both emas looked pretty flat and the 20 ema was not even close to being above the 50 ema at that time. So another rule or rules must have trumped the moving average filter. Please explain.

 

And congratulations on your great call for this long USD/CAD trade, amazing.

 

http://cdn2.traderslaboratory.com/forums/images/FH_Sahm/smilies/custom2/cheers.gif

 

See chart.

[ForexTraderX 10]

I've started getting long in the EUR/USD and the GBP/USD.... though I think ideal entry points for the EUR/USD would be between 1.3000 - 1.2980, targeting around 1.3040, 1.3070-1.3080, and finally 1.3115.

 

for the GBP/USD, ideal entry would be between 1.5980-1.5960, targeting 1.6020, then 1.6040-1.6050, then 1.6065, and finally 1.6140.

 

Also, will start posting up some of my thoughts on last weeks USD/CAD that Henry had inquired about...

[ForexTraderX 10]

Oh, also regarding the E/U and G/U setups i just posted about... stops would be 30-40 pips below entry prices... Personally, i've got a few mental stops, and I'm not suggesting anyone take any particular trade, only that stops should be lower than the lowest point I listed above by at least 20 pips.

[ForexTraderX 10]

Alright, right now on the EUR/JPY, between 103.85-103.80....nice place to get long IMO...

[ForexTraderX 10]

Well... I completely underestimated the interest in the risk off trade today. That being said, GBP/USD should be right around a short/mid term bounce point here at 1.5919... I'd expect a bounce between 1.5920-1.5900.

 

Also, USD/CAD looks like it has bottomed out... and will push up to retest 9960 at least, if not the high of the day, and then on to parity IMO.

 

Kinda a volatile day in my account equity, but nothing too crazy, and over all I still have a good shot at recovering most if not all the loss within the next 24-48 hours with the trades I currently have on.

 

Nothing guaranteed of course, but it looks decent at this point for a recovery move.

 

will post some of the USD/CAD analysis next...