Watch A Typical Day Of A Real Day Trader

[ForexTraderX 10]

the 6E long trade I just closed for a 6 tick loss... gonna step away from the computer for a few minutes... i feel i'm making rash decisions, so i'm gonna get a bite to eat, get some perspective, and then start planning for the U.S. session.

[ForexTraderX 10]

I just got short 1 more 6C contract at 1.0110... 10 tick stop, 10 tick target... but will manage as trade evolves...

 

EDIT: oh, my average fill rice now is about 1.0104

[ForexTraderX 10]

i'm trageting 1 tick profit on the 2 6C short contracts... 1.0103 target for both... i'm just looking to get out and move on to the next trades now...

 

UPDATE: closed out both contracts at 1.0104... pretty much a scratch trade, less comissions.

Edited September 6, 2012 by ForexTraderX

[ForexTraderX 10]

also, just got short a mini oil contract, at 96.425. Stop is about 45 cents, target about the same. will manage trade as it develops.

[ForexTraderX 10]

moved my stop now to about 15 cents above my entry price... trade is looking decent so far...

 

Fact is, this could drop back down close to retest the high of the regular trading session yesterday...which was about 95.65... right now it's at 96.34, so that's about a 70 tick potential drop becore i would expect to see some decent bounce. of course, we could bounce anywhere, but if we haven't bounced by 95.65ish... i'd be looking to really reduce exposure on any short, and possibly even get long.

 

Anyway, time will tell.

[ForexTraderX 10]

well, looks like EUR/CAD is bouncing... figured it would bounce from around 2470ish... and if it got much lower, it'd probably retrace down to 2440.

 

given the momentum it moved up towards the top of the range during yesterdays trading, and the fact that the euro right now looks bullish against a weighted basket of other major currencies, and the CAD looks about to be the most bearish against a weighted basket of currencies, I figured we wouldn't drop much further than 2470ish... 2440 at the lowest for today...

 

if price somehow got lower than 2440, i'd have to rethink my bias of long in the euro and short in the cad today...

 

on a separate but related note... the EUR/USD seems to have made a bit of a bullish pinbar type candle on the daily chart yesterday, and it has traded near the top of the range, after having done so for the past few days.... this bodes well for an upward breakout in the EUR/USD... and the USD looks to be trading strong against the CAD... so I will admit, I do believe this is a very solid trade, however, it could very well go against me... wouldn't be the first or last time that happens.

 

All I know is, I like the trade... it feels right... and over the long run, opportunities like this can make a decent profit.

 

UPDATE: Actually, when I was writing this above, I mentioned that the euro looked the most bullish fo the major currencies... but that isn't actually correct. the AUD looks the most bullish, and 2nd place goes to the euro... which is pretty much tied for "2nd most bullish currency today" with the NZD.

 

so, the best opportunity today IMO in the major currency markets is a long on the AUD/CAD... at least until about 1.0170ish...

Edited September 6, 2012 by ForexTraderX
alternative point of view...

[ForexTraderX 10]

well, just closed out my mini crude short at 96.325, for a 4 tick profit.

 

it seems to be stalling here aroudn the 96.30 price, and the daily candle from yesterday is fairly bullish. Also, i'm seeing sentiment as primarily risk on today...

 

so, these reasons, combined with a slow crude market right now, i'd rather just get out, and look for a better place to enter again. Slow rangy markets like this make me uncomfortable, particularly in a market like crude that has such a large degree of volatility.

 

In my experience... if a position in crude is not moving your way... it might as well be moving against you.

[ForexTraderX 10]

Well, so far today I've had 6 trades in various futures markets (crude, currencies, etc)... i've taken 2 losses, had 4 winners, and am right now up about $110 after comissions.

 

May not seem like much, but up is up, and i'm grateful for any and all profits that I can pull out of the markets, even if it's just a couple ticks at a time.

 

I will post a screen shot of my results when i'm done trading.. probably around the london close time today.

[ForexTraderX 10]

it seems that the EUR/CAD is finding some decent support around the 1.2470 level... though I wouldn't be too surprised to see it push a bit lower just as the New York session starts (around 8 am EST)...

 

this would likely trigger off the sell stops of the folks who are currently buying at this 1.2470 level... i'm thinking 1.2460-1.2455ish would most likely be good enough to provide the liquidity needed for a larger player (or series of larger players) to fill up at what would likely end up becoming the low of the day (if it is indeed a push into liquidity, and not just excess supply hitting the market)

 

at any rate, between 2470-2440 should still be a nice place to pick up a long position... however, AUD/CAD is probably even the better market to get long in.

 

At this point, it's kinda of just a waiting game for me until the U.S. session starts up in an hour and a half.

[ForexTraderX 10]

right now, AUD/CAD is sitting just a hair above 1.0120... i'm thinking we'll see a bounce either here, or if not, 1.0110 is likely even a bit better to act as support.

 

and, i'm looking for one of these support levels to hold for the low of the U.S. session... so... we'll see. if we can touch 1.0110, it might be a really nice opportunity, depending on how price action looks when (and if) it gets there.

[ForexTraderX 10]

well, the EUR/CAD on a 3 min chart looks to be forming a falling wedge, which is recognized as a "bullish" chart pattern. If we continue to hold around support here at 2470ish... and then see some nice strong bullish candles breakout out upwards, that would be a decent price action signal to trigger a long entry in the EUR/CAD.

 

My only real regret so far tonight is that I seem to have been a bit too aggressive with my entries, particularly in the spot forex market... I may end up stoppi9ng out on a few of these, only to find myself re-entering just a few pips below that if the next support level shows signs of holding.

 

but, that being said, i like what i'm seeing in the EUR/CAD and the AUD/CAD enough that I would be willing to re-enter if i'm stopped out, as long as nothing changes my analysis and trading biases for today.

[ForexTraderX 10]

the USD/CAD also looks like it could offer some decent long opportunities today... though I am currently in it, and do not plan on re-entering since I feel there are better opportunities that i've already discussed...

 

but, i'd say around 0.9875 looks good to act as a possible reversal to the upside, and if not there, then 0.9865-0.9860... that would be my "ideal" entry point if I was looking to get long in the USD/CAD again.

 

Anyway, we'll see what happens, but unless there is some significant fresh selling in the USD/CAD... i tend to think it may be near it's low for today right now...

[ForexTraderX 10]

I just got a long position in the ES, at 1410.50... no stop or target yet...though I won't let this pull against me more than 4 points at most... we'll see...

[ForexTraderX 10]

Wow... yesterdays trading was just total crap. I feel like I got lucky. Super Lucky. Guess it would be that 7%ish drawdown at one point on my open positions... A few things got ahead of me and I was somewhat distracted with my futures trading so I hadn't realized the exposure (and poorly planned stops to boot) that I had built up when things pushed against me and levels didn't hold.

 

About the only saving grace was that market sentiment was just so darn positive, and my bigger picture view seems to be correct at this time on the "risk" currencies, so I did end up salvaging a disaster and turning it into only a very minor loss.

 

That being said, my spot trading was absolute crap. Futures trading was weak...but at least it pulled out a profit, and at no time did the drawdown reach some rediculous level (I think about $650ish drawdown at worst... which is not unreasonable for me in futures trading)

 

Here's a screenshot of my final total from futures for those who are interested....

 

I don't anticipate trading much today, other than managing what is currently open. If I do take some new positions however, I'll make sure they are examples of good trades and trade management, as opposed to so-so trades and horrible management

[ForexTraderX 10]

Well, after looking over the charts, reading some news, seeing what opportunties are developing... I decided to take a long in the AUD/USD. Put in a long order at market, with about a 30ish pip stop, and similar target...

 

I wanted to take a minute to explain the thought process behind this trade.

 

first off, I had a very strong bullish bias yesterday for the AUD/CAD. And while we did move upwards on the day as a whole... I took some pretty bad entries, and therefore lost money on the trade.

 

One of the things that really caught me off guard was just deep the retracement was before it bounced back upwards. we pushed almost to 1.007, and i figured 40 pips higher would be the likely "low of the day"...

 

To add insult to injury, the AUD/USD was a bit of a rocket ship yesterday, and i was able to watch it take off as I sank in my AUD/CAD position.

 

So, as I look over various charts, news articles, etc.... these are some of the thoughts and conclusions I had that showed me the opportunity that exists in the AUD/USD for a long trade today, in spite of the 100 pip move up that occured yesterday.

 

1. I'm currently bullish on the AUD/CAD... and though price action yesterday was showing weakness in the CAD... after the news broke regarding bond buying in europe, a positive employment numbers...etc... the CAD had a rare reversal of fortune, and went from being one of the weakest, to one of the strongest...2nd only to the AUD. In spite of this recent CAD strength, i'm still bullish on the AUD/CAD today, and holding a long in the AUD/CAD right now.

 

2. Below is a daily chart of the USD against a weighted basket of currencies. (similar to the dollar index, but the weighting is more equally distributed and not so euro heavy like the DX is) You can see from the most recent price action on this daily chart, that the dollar is looking quite weak, against the other G8 currencies as a whole.

 

3. i'm bullish on the EUR/USD as well... yet, i'm BEARISH on the EUR/AUD, due to the fact we basically made a bearish engulfing pattern on the daily chart of the EUR/AUD, after an extended move up with no retracements, and having hit a visible techincal level of resistance earlier this week, right before yesterdays bearish engulfing candle formed. So, if i'm bullish EUR/USD, and bearish EUR/AUD, then I must be REALLY bullish AUD/USD.

Pictured below for further explanation

 

4. I was able to get in about 11 pips above a price that Is likely to act as significant support... and with a target approx. 40+ pips above my entry. thus giving me a good R/R on the trade. This is better explained and illustrated in the pics below. the AUD/USD futures chart that I use in the picture is an intraday chart, not a daily chart (for any who may be confused)

 

Since I started typing this up, the AUD/USD rallied about 19 pips above my entry price... while the AUD/CAD is yet to move that much. Seems at least in this case, the rational proved insightful, and it's this type of consideration and market understanding that can help someone identify good, high probability opportunities in the marketplace.

[ForexTraderX 10]

well, the AUD/USD is looking good so far...but we are getting closeer to europe, and I've found that as we come into the time when the euro session starts, moves in asia are often reversed... because of this, I will take a bit more of the trade off the table, and move up my stop so i will be guaranteed a profit on the trade over all, regardless of future market action.

[ForexTraderX 10]

well, closed the remainder of the position at 30 pips (give or take)... as well as my AUD/CAD long. Now, I have no problem getting back in the aud/usd if it dropps back to a price i want (about 35 pips below where it is now)...

 

but i've had so many profitable positions just vanish before my eyes as asia rolls into europe, that I'd rather close out the rest here, and risk missing the re-entry about 30+ pips below... than hold it here, and risk pulling back to my entry price (which would have stopped me out at BE on what I still had, since I moved my stop up) even though I could finish out with approx. 37-40 pips.

 

It works for me. And that's more important, in my experience... finding, and acting, on

"what works for me"

[ForexTraderX 10]

For those of you who may be wondering how last weeks live trading session went... unfortunatly it didn't. I only had 2 people actually contact me, at all, and only one actual "RSVP", so maybe there just isn't as much interest as I thought there might be.

 

Anyway, maybe if this thread gets more active and has more people posting up questions or comments or ideas, i may organize such a thing at that time.

 

For now, for anyone who is interested in learning how to trade or whatever, hits me up on skype, i'm usually up for an impromptu discussion on trading and my approach to it. my skype ID is: forextraderx

[ForexTraderX 10]

So...the if you look back at the pics I posted with my analysis of the AUD/USD long trade, you'll notice that blue line I drew as a likely reversal point...

 

well, not sure how things will evolve over the next few hours, but for now, it was indeed the exact high of the move up. This is why I like market profile as a tool in market analysis...

 

To see what i'm talking about, i've included the exact same pic, just taken as a current screen shot.

 

i've also included a close up shot in a 1 min time frame...so you can see exactly how precise such an intraday analysis can be...

[ForexTraderX 10]

I ended up with 1 futures trade, which I took a 4 tick profit on in the 6E, and myfxbook shows i'm up about half a percent since starting.

 

Fact is, i'm up about 2.5% for the week, but since I didn't hook the myfxbook to a new account I funded about a day or so ago, it only reflects about the last 36 hours of trading.

From now on it'll just be easier if anyone wants to know what type of results I get from my trading and analysis...etc.

 

I have some very small pending orders to short the eur/aud, but unless one of those triggers, i'm done for the week.

 

Looking forward to the weekend, and hopefully another profitable upcoming week.

[ForexTraderX 10]

Well, turns out I shoulda left well enough alone. Finished last week up about 1.6%.

 

Had a trade I carried over from friday, and it hit the stop loss when the market opened on sunday. Haven't opened a chart this week as I've just not felt much like trading.

 

Did take some trades today, mostly in the eur/usd, but a little in the eur/cad, and the eur/gbp, and gbp/usd.

 

Finished the day up about 1.3%, which puts myfxbook account a hair in the positive.

 

Glad to be done trading for today... will try to post more in real time as setups occur, as well as premarket analysis, etc.

[ForexTraderX 10]

For tonight, i'm looking at a short on the GBP/USD, and possibly on the NZD/USD as well.

 

Reasons for the GBP/USD are fairly straightforward. First of all, this upswing has gone parabolic this week. There are two cardinal rules to any market move that goes parabolic:

 

1. A market that moves in a parabolic trajectory is not making a sustainable move.

 

2. Parabolic moves in markets very rarely "fade away"... Once the parabola is broken, they typically reverse direction without much warning, and with a fairly significant reversal.

 

Another concept that applies well to the GBP/USD is that of market symmetry. When markets move to retest a price at which a major swing originated at, the likelyhood of a short term (or even long term) reversal goes up significantly with S/R levels around that price, than other S/R levels that do not necessarily correlate to a price where a swing previously originated from.

 

Also, the GPB/USD is testing the 1.6200 price, which happens not only to be a major psychological price level, but it also is a price level where market profile concepts show a significant drop off in trading interest around this price in the past. This doesn't mean that a buying exhaustion will take place here, but it does point towards that as being a somewhat more likely outcome than say... a glut of new GBP/USD buyers jumping into the marketplace.

 

Now, points against this short gbp/usd idea are mostly the obvious ones. First off, a new version of QE3 for the USD is not helping the USD gain any real bidding interest. And, we have not yet broken any significant trendline that would further support proper timing of a short entry, as a trendline break would signify the parabolic move up could really indeed be breaking at that moment in time.

 

Of these two factors, the trendline break is the more important of the two for a potential downward move...and i'm not even sure if such a trendline break will occur tonight...

 

however, when a market moves parabolically, the vast majority of the time it ends not with a slow, gentle pullback, but with a sudden, violent retracement or even reversal. Combine this with the GBP/USD nearing a previous significant high, and the decent probability that historically there is a significant drop off in trading interest at the 1.6200 price level, and I think we have a recipe for a potential nice downswing before we continue up (and I do believe up is the more likely resolution to the whole thing)

 

which brings me to the NZD/USD short opportunity. Basically, all the factors I just applied to the GBP/USD can be applied to the NZD/USD... but with one additional factor:

The GBP/NZD is coming to a fairly significant support level, and we may get a bit of a bounce from there.

 

In other words, the one currency that the GBP looks like it could see a bit of a bullish move against is the NZD.

 

It's of course not any guarantee of anything, it is however a good enough reason to justify looking for a short in the NZD/USD as well as the GBP/USD.

[ForexTraderX 10]

With regard to the GBP/USD short potential, I will be paying close attention to any move that retests the most recent high around 1.6206. London will often reverse any trend established during the asian sessions, and of course stops would be at 1.6206 and higher...

thus providing any needed liquidity for a larger player to take profits on a long, or get short, with minimal slippage.

 

Fact is, i'm short both markets now, but both are very small, inconsequential size trades. I will increase them should I see a move that breaks the highs of the day so far, but is then quickly reversed on above average volume (tick based volume is not ideal, but it's a good proxy)... best of all if such a situation were to unfold within the first hour or so of londons opening.

 

time will tell.

[ForexTraderX 10]

Well, the GBP/USD just barely broke the asian session highs, by less than 1 pip, and is dropping fast. if this drop can gain some momentum, this may work out to be a nice opportunity.

 

Of course, this is a very counter trend trade, but I feel for the reasons I listed already that such a trade is justified and does provide a decent opportunity for profit.

 

EDIT: actually, we fell short of the asian session highs by about 2 pips, but it still got close enough to find pending orders around that high, and the selling pressure seems significant there.

[ForexTraderX 10]

I think we could see gbp/usd continue to drop at least until 1.6180... from there, not sure...but I could see a relatively smooth drop from 6204 to 6180 for this initial down swing.