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ForexTraderX

Watch A Typical Day Of A Real Day Trader

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Targeting 5728 now...that's be 26 ticks on it. And probably done for the night. Up about $240 now... we'll see. At least my futures trading tonight is looking good. if the FX trades work out, it'll be a good start to the week.

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Well, I kinda suspected we'd stall out around 5720...and we got to 5718. However, I got my stop loss hit at +1... that's a couple bucks after comissions, so I can't complain.

 

I'm done with the futures now for tonight. I'm exhausted, and going to call it a night early. I have the FX trades still running, as well as some orders and I'll be leaving those up, as I'd be happy to take them anytime in the next 24 hours. But for my futures orders, all are now cancelled, as I don't like to leave those unattended due to the size of the potential loss. It's no fun to go to bed up a few hundered, and wake up down a grand.

 

Anyway, here's a SS for tonight. If anyone wants to see me do this type of thing tomorrow, hit me up here, or in a PM. If your not into scalping, that's cool too... I only scalp when I feel up to it like tonight. Most of my trading is all pre-planned out very carefully like my FX trades... and in fact,, it's THAT type of trading that I'll be focusing on. That is where the real, consistent money is ;)

 

TraderX

futures-profit-screenshot-july29th-30th.thumb.jpg.85c0f2b95ff230d027b9d6af14970bd4.jpg

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Welll, on a final note, I just filled on the forex GBP/USD long at 5685. Stops a bit below 5650..about 45ish... and 1st target is 5635.

 

Maybe I wake up with a slightly larger account. This would be cool.

 

G'night all, and good luck in the U.S. session.

 

 

TraderX

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hi forextraderx,

 

thanks for taking the step to give insights into your trading methods in an open manner. i am surprised to see no one else post here. Anyways, i am in US time zone so most likely wont be joining the live chat but certainly try to interact here on the forum.

 

look forward to more posts from you.

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UPDATE:

 

the GBP/USD long from around 1.5685 is right now up about 29 pips, and the NZD/JPY from 63.35 long is down about 10 pips.

 

I still like both trades however, as my overall market strength score is higher for both the GBP and NZD currencies than it is for the USD and JPY, so long risk still seems to be in vogue today (well, for all but the euro, which I am thinking may be a bit stronger than the USD, but probably not stronger than the yen)

 

In fact the only currency that seems to be stronger by a decent amount from yesterday is the JPY... everything else seems to pretty much have held the same general position from yesterday.

 

I've decided I'll be here 2 hours before london opens, and will try the whole chat room thing again. I'll keep it open for 1 hr, just click the anymeeting link that I post up 2 hours before london, and maybe we can get some trading ideas kicking around, or you all can ask questions, etc. I'll continue posting up how I do some of my analysis on this thread as well.

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hi forextraderx,

 

thanks for taking the step to give insights into your trading methods in an open manner. i am surprised to see no one else post here. Anyways, i am in US time zone so most likely wont be joining the live chat but certainly try to interact here on the forum.

 

look forward to more posts from you.

 

Thanks man, glad to see the post. if the time is an issue, feel free to ask anything here, and i'll do what I can to help clarify or weigh on what I can.

 

Good luck in your trading.

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Well, here we go... seems all eyes on the central banks for the moment, and as far as the FED goes.... it's all eyes on bernakes big federal checkbook. If he cuts that check in some way, it will POSSIBLY boost the markets higher, though right now, they are starting to price this in, and have been for a short time now...so it will likely boost the stronger currencies like the AUD/NZD/CAD - but I'm not sure how much. However, if he DOESN'T do anything... we could see a quick drop here, but I wouldn't jump on shorting the stronger markets. The euro looks particularly weak, considering the ECB is likley to devalue it with their bond purchase, or whatever they do.

 

So, looks like the dollar will chop a bit now until the fed meeting, and if it goes as expected, probably see a choppy reaction with overall risk on in most execept the euro, and if big B shows no pen to the checkbook...well, I'll look to short the euro, and if market tone and sentiment don't dramatically shift, probably still look to go long at a nice techincal level in the AUD - NZD, MAYBE the GBP... though, that'll all have to wait.

 

For now, i'm not expecting much movement today, at least not in london... though the CAD may move today with the GDP report coming out.

 

Only real change from yesterday is market seems to be taking seriously the talk in japan that the CB will not interviene without government support. and ANYTIME you have more people needed to agree on something, well, it's less likely to happen. Furthermore, it's a change to market tone on the yen. This explains why my NZD/JPY trade is still treading water, and why the GBP/JPY has dropped, where it is holding strong against the USD.

 

Basically, all is still good from yesterday except i'll not look to short the JPY... or if I do, i'll be a more conservative position, that I manage more aggressively.

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Just jumped in with a short on the E/A... I really see NO reason for the euro to rise against the aussie, since it's now also THE carry trade, and fundamentally they are on opposite ends of the G8 spectrum, AND price action is following the trend, AND afte a weak rise last week, it's falling apart again, AND if it goes up.... I mean... really, can anyone out there in forextrading land name a single soul who's gonna look at their charts and say "oh man... ya... the euro, long! against the AUD...short! That's the best trade in the world right now!

 

No. I don't think so. I may lose on this trade. But, i'm happy to take it. And i'll look to get short at higher levels if that's the case.

 

Poor euro. I don't believe she stands a chance against the AUD. It's like being the fat smelly girl at a modeling competition. I'm just gonna go ahead and bet she won't win the modeling contract.

 

Short around 1.1675

 

took the same trade for the same reasons in the eur/cad... just spreading the risk around, since the aud looks a bit "toppy" against the cad right now.

 

However, I did take each for a bit smaller risk than I normally would, given that they are going to be highly correlated, and I don't want to lose twice on the same idea. But of course, i'll only be looking to sell them should they rise again...at least until the fed meeting, or until Draghi or someone else big in europe comes out to publically call the whole thing off. Would be somewhat typical of the folks over in europe to do something like that. They like to contradict themselves it seems. however... For tonight... I think i'm good. Probably for tomorrow too... though we'll lsee what the bernake has to say.

Edited by ForexTraderX

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Picking up from my last methodolgy post yesterday...once I have determined daily bias and to some degree market strength (to determine if I should wait for pullbacks, or just buy breakouts)... I look specifically at market flow information. why? well, it's kinda nice to know where actual banks are placing actual orders, as well as nations, and sometimes they even tell me how much they are worth. it's a good thing to know IMO.

 

It may not be as clever as those indicator based systems...but hey, I like it.

 

I guess I'm just the type who like's easy trading. I mess it up enough as it is... easy helps me mess it up less ;)

 

Here is an example of recent flow info:

 

On FX, concerns over whether Greece will receive the next tranche of bailout payments, default concerns, and Greece euro exit fears continue to cap EUR/USD, EUR/Crosses - despite recent rally on ECB Mario Draghi comments. EUR/USD at 1.2260-62, offers at 1.2280-00, bids now at 1.2220-40, weak stops below 1.2220/ support 1.2200. EUR/JPY at 95.80-83, range around 95.54 to 96.61 yesterday, interest to sell on rallies for break of 95.50/95.00. WL

 

and...

 

Kiwi hit fresh 3-month highs around 0.8113, highest level since May 2 highs of 0.8153. But Kiwi looking toppish after recent rally from 0.78 lows. Offers at 0.8130-50, bids at 0.8080 for now, weak stops below 0.8075-80. AUD/NZD buying toward key 1.3000 again, putting cap on Kiwi. AUD/NZD at 1.2980-90, eye test of 1.3050. WL

 

 

and...

 

NZD/JPY a tad firmer at 63.25-27, from 63.20-22 on slightly better NZ business confidence. NBNZ Survey showed net 24% of companies expect business to grow in next 12-months, vs 20.8% in previous survey. NZD/USD at 0.8092-95, offers at 0.8100/10. Bids at 0.8050-60, stops below. NZD/JPY off yest's 3-week highs of 63.60-65, high since July 6 64.29. Focus still on any fresh Cross/JPY sales - led by EUR/JPY - on risk aversion, Nikkei -0.35% now. Markets relatively stable ahead of Fed FOMC and then ECB/BoE on Thursday.

 

Again. when this thing crosses that thing, in such and such angle, that might work for some. but for me, this type of thing I find more reliable.

 

So far, the E/A short looking good, and the E/C short not far behind.

 

TBH, there are really only about 2 other possible opportunity that is setting up for the london and US session so far... but, they contradict some of my other market analysis, and I tend to doubt the setup will actually fully materialize. However, if they do, I will take it, since this is a setup that works very well over all, and it seems my opinion historically has only screwed it up, so now I try hard to ignore that and just take the trades.

 

I'll just take them for a bit less, that's all. AND i'll make sure it's absolutly perfect, and meets all my criteria in full. If i'm not sure, then it's a no go.

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Just filled a 2nd contract long in 6J, at 127.87. 1st stop is at 127.87, 2nd stop at 127.67, though I may well move those stops up as I am able to. Tareting 128.08, in one, the other is an open target... we'll see. migh have jumped in too quick here... but...

 

also, took a 3 tick loss in crude. so far, down $30

 

on the plus side, all the forex positions look good, and 4 out of 4 are in the green, the 1 is down only 1 pip....so, looks not bad.

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So, as I was saying, I use that flow info to help me decide on what technical levels to use to place my trades. I also use it to know what the intentions of larger players may be.

 

For example, if I see there are stops at a particular level, and when that level gets hit, rather than punch through it, it actually stalls quick, and then reverses with a high volume pinbar or engulfing candle or the like, it tells me that those stops were likely used by a large trader or several large traders to absorb their buy order..and the bought so much they absorbed all the liquidity, and there is likely no more buying to be done at that level.

 

It's not just anyu old pinbar to me now, see? because I knew there were a disproportionally large amount of a particular type of order (stops, which are either buy stops, or sell stops, depending on if they are hit on rise in price, or a drop in price, respectively)

 

So, if there is a daily low, and there are stops below it, and the market went up, but is now going to retest that low... those stops are a bunch of sell orders.

 

so, if the market hits them, yet...goes up??? well, it tells me that the so called smart money is buying. who else would be big enough to absorb those stops yet prevent the market from continuing it's down move... and in fact, it's now starting to move up.

 

Anyway, things like this. I think about and consider. Not always like this of course...remember, I alreayd have my bias for the day...now it's jsut a matter of picking the right technical level, and as the situation calls for, the right confirmation.

 

And this is part of it.

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Closed 1 contract out for a 9 tick loss in the 6J... I'm not doing this correctly right now.... I feel a bit overly confident, partially because I did well yesterday, and partially because i'm up a bit in forex spot.

 

So, i'm going to tone it down, and not enter any more futures trades for now. Mayb eno more tonight. Mistakes are expensive, consideirng I'm down about $140 so far now and the current trade I'm in isn't looking so hot.

 

the spot trades should more than make up for it, but, it's silly do to anything if this is how i'm feeling right now.

 

So i'll be holding off for now.

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I closed out that last 6J position at BE... done with the futures for now.

 

also, my GBP/USD trade finished with a break even on the 2nd half. but, i took half off at about the high of the day today...so, it made an OK profit over all.

 

also, had a good time showing one of the members here some of my trading setup... maybe see more in the future :)

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here is a screenshot of tonights futures trades. down a bit, and no clear thought or even desire to scalp, so i'm done. still up a bit for the week, and my forex trades are going well. gbp/usd stopped out but made a decent profit, and the others are not looking bad.

 

I'm going to bed...good luck all with your trading.

futures-profit-screenshot-july30-31.thumb.jpg.e9054e7e48b020c377a88045b581d530.jpg

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No live trading tonight, but will be on tomorrow, 2 hrs before london opens.

 

I may trade, just not gonna to a live show of it. If I do, i'll post up a few things.

 

But for tomorrow, Anyone is welcome to stop by and watch and learn and discuss.

 

So.... about... 26 hours after this post is made :)

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