Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Soultrader

Technical Analysis: Is it voodoo? Or does it work?

Recommended Posts

Hi Logic,

 

I consider myself somewhat persuadable - please could you share a little about the easier approach to creating systems that you advocate?

 

BlueHorseshoe

 

 

Sorry, no.

 

I have to use 20 characters otherwise my answer would have been shorter.

 

Logic

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Understand that you can use those tools to build "Reactive" signals as well. Reactive signals are completely different than predictive signals.

 

............ used to spend, literally hundreds of hours, trying to persuade people that were hard headed and "thick as a brick" that there was an easier way to create systems but I gave up. Now I co-manage 2 funds, one is a 1/3 billion dollar private fund that has been around for over 13 years and I just keep my mouth shut. We did over 15% last month in the one I am primary on and I consider that a shitty month.

 

Hi Logic, i too would be interested in the above quote (I dont care about the returns but are more interested in what you mean) i saw a similar quote (I cant remember where) from AQR Capital and he talked about creating systems differently.

Given you brought it up it seems unfair not to continue :)

 

Also just as an extra - I have always thought of any signal as being reactive from the point of view that everything is drawn from data in the past.....ie; there is not really any predictive signals. (even most fundamental analysis is similar, unless you are really trying to predict certain market trends, new innovations etc)

Slight semantics maybe/definately, and while i can understand that mean reversion systems (even if the mean is entering on trend reversals say) might be considered more 'predictive' as you are trying to pre-empt a move....I was wondering if this is a large factor in what you mean when you talk about creating systems?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hi Logic, i too would be interested in the above quote (I dont care about the returns but are more interested in what you mean) i saw a similar quote (I cant remember where) from AQR Capital and he talked about creating systems differently.

Given you brought it up it seems unfair not to continue :)

 

Also just as an extra - I have always thought of any signal as being reactive from the point of view that everything is drawn from data in the past.....ie; there is not really any predictive signals. (even most fundamental analysis is similar, unless you are really trying to predict certain market trends, new innovations etc)

Slight semantics maybe/definately, and while i can understand that mean reversion systems (even if the mean is entering on trend reversals say) might be considered more 'predictive' as you are trying to pre-empt a move....I was wondering if this is a large factor in what you mean when you talk about creating systems?

 

I used to openly share what I do, I no longer feel so giving. Individuals like the mouse have poisoned those waters.

 

When I think of the differences between "reacting" and "predicting", I thnk of reaction points in models that produce consistent outcomes. I think of prediction points in models that produce chaotic random outcomes. This is the extent of what I will say onthe subject.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Sorry, no.

 

I have to use 20 characters otherwise my answer would have been shorter.

 

Logic

 

Hi Logic,

 

Thanks for your reply.

 

You're not here to promote your fund(s) (should they even exist) - I've tried to get that out of you in the past . . . and you're not here for idle chit-chat . . . One wonders why you come to TL at all?

 

Until next time . . .

 

BlueHorseshoe

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I personally believe that there is some voodoo in Technical analysis . There is a possibility that pasts trades are completely random (ie dont follow a pattern) and are unrelated to future trades .

 

BUT if most traders are seeing patterns in past behavior they will base thair trades on past perfomance and patterns .

 

So you have to take TA seriously if you want to predict other people's trades .

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hi Logic,

 

Thanks for your reply.

 

You're not here to promote your fund(s) (should they even exist) - I've tried to get that out of you in the past . . . and you're not here for idle chit-chat . . . One wonders why you come to TL at all?

 

Until next time . . .

 

BlueHorseshoe

 

I used to have a lot of free time while watching the markets and trading each day but over the last 18 months, time has gotten a light tighter. I really enjoy interacting with smart people in this field that like to shoot the $hit about stuff that effects them each day. It is the rude flaming morons that have driven me out of the forums though. Chit chat breaks up the routine of the day. Arguing with lower forms of functioning children is not fun. I've always considered you and your posts some of the brighter spots on here though.

 

We just bought a new office building and I have to manage the build out on the technology side. We are building a massive pedabyte server environment that is really a thing of beauty. By next Spring it will house all of our historic data for futures, FOREX, Options, ETF's, Stocks, and electric trading data all while being updated in real time. Backups are a real bugger. It is a lot of fun but I miss trading every day. I go hang out with the couple manual traders we have for a bit every day to "smell" the enthusiasm. Ninety percent of the trades we take each day are fully automated but the manual traders babysit the robots. We are adding a group of power traders as of December 1st to complete the diversity of the group and they are fully manual. This is getting more fun all of the time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I used to have a lot of free time while watching the markets and trading each day but over the last 18 months, time has gotten a light tighter. I really enjoy interacting with smart people in this field that like to shoot the $hit about stuff that effects them each day. It is the rude flaming morons that have driven me out of the forums though. Chit chat breaks up the routine of the day. Arguing with lower forms of functioning children is not fun. I've always considered you and your posts some of the brighter spots on here though.

 

We just bought a new office building and I have to manage the build out on the technology side. We are building a massive pedabyte server environment that is really a thing of beauty. By next Spring it will house all of our historic data for futures, FOREX, Options, ETF's, Stocks, and electric trading data all while being updated in real time. Backups are a real bugger. It is a lot of fun but I miss trading every day. I go hang out with the couple manual traders we have for a bit every day to "smell" the enthusiasm. Ninety percent of the trades we take each day are fully automated but the manual traders babysit the robots. We are adding a group of power traders as of December 1st to complete the diversity of the group and they are fully manual. This is getting more fun all of the time.

 

Wow you are really something, you co-manage a fund that only did a shitty 15% last month and you are building out an office building ( which is just an awesomely stupid use of funds for someone who earns 15% on a shitty month) so I extend my congratulations even further than before.

 

Keep it coming. To me this is similar to playing a simple game of tetris.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I used to have a lot of free time while watching the markets and trading each day but over the last 18 months, time has gotten a light tighter. I really enjoy interacting with smart people in this field that like to shoot the $hit about stuff that effects them each day. It is the rude flaming morons that have driven me out of the forums though. Chit chat breaks up the routine of the day. Arguing with lower forms of functioning children is not fun. I've always considered you and your posts some of the brighter spots on here though.

 

We just bought a new office building and I have to manage the build out on the technology side. We are building a massive pedabyte server environment that is really a thing of beauty. By next Spring it will house all of our historic data for futures, FOREX, Options, ETF's, Stocks, and electric trading data all while being updated in real time. Backups are a real bugger. It is a lot of fun but I miss trading every day. I go hang out with the couple manual traders we have for a bit every day to "smell" the enthusiasm. Ninety percent of the trades we take each day are fully automated but the manual traders babysit the robots. We are adding a group of power traders as of December 1st to complete the diversity of the group and they are fully manual. This is getting more fun all of the time.

 

Hopefully once your office build is complete you might find time to contribute here more regularly again - automated trading is somewhat under-represented on TL, I think.

 

Regards,

 

BlueHorseshoe

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hopefully once your office build is complete you might find time to contribute here more regularly again - automated trading is somewhat under-represented on TL, I think.

 

Regards,

 

BlueHorseshoe

 

We'll be fully in the new digs in January. I promise to participate more then. The automated side is my favorite.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Here is an interesting article that is very topical - i will also post it in a few other threads - for those who miss it.

 

DeMark Fibonacci Charts Embraced by Steve Cohen Lure Investors - SFGate

 

More so for the the diverging comments from quants - the headline article is not the whole story

 

Thanks for the article. Of course, everyone will read it, I hope! But some bits I picked out:-

 

Traditional investors who look at fundamentals and managers of quantitative funds can barely hide their contempt for the technicians.

 

“Comparing technical indicators to what we do is like comparing bush medicine to the research performed by drug companies,” says Matthew Beddall, chief investment officer at London-based Winton Capital Management Ltd., a quantitative hedge fund staffed by physics and math Ph.D.s.

 

Investor Warren Buffett is also dubious of the notion that a stock or index’s direction can be predicted merely by studying historical price data.

 

“I realized that technical analysis didn’t work when I turned the chart upside down and didn’t get a different answer,” the Berkshire Hathaway Inc. chairman joked to an audience at Vanderbilt University in 2005. A spokesman says that Buffett stands by the statement.

 

So assuming those guys weren't lying or telling half-truths, it seems that they are not keen on TA.

 

I thought this next bit was interesting too, DeMark is a TA who sees the world of trading as Fibonnachi numbers. Only $500 a month if you want to use his indicators, apparently. It has worked perfectly on Silver, which is great if you used it on Silver during the specified time period . (Just ignore the massive losses that may have occured in other markets.)

 

DeMark says he’s obsessive by nature. As a kid, he played as many as 81 holes of golf a day during the summer on the way to becoming Wisconsin state champion among players 13 and under. One year, he ate spaghetti in red sauce 60 consecutive nights.

“I go to extremes,” he says.

 

During a flight home from London in 2009, DeMark listened to a single song -- Coldplay’s “Viva la Vida” -- for 11 hours and 20 minutes. He says he was captivated by both the tune and the message: that a respected king -- or a brilliant market forecaster, in his case -- can see his world turned upside down by a single mistake.

 

As an experiment I just listened to that song 3 times and then I was ordered to turn it off (to be fair, I didn't want to listen to it again). It is a good song! However, I believe that listening to the same song (any song) for 11 hours straight might drive you mad, if you weren't mad already. Might be like autism of some kind?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'll bet if a man as capable as WB at making money was forced to use TA he'd make a damn sight better job of it than all the people who think the sun shines out of his ass.

 

well put - Every time WB is used as a basis for why TA does not work, you could probably find plenty of FA losers as well.......the man is the best at what he does - he is also not a retail punter.

Even WB says price is everything - - its just a horizontal line - everything for this stock below this price is cheap - above its expensive. he uses TA !!

 

IMGHO Accounting is more voodoo than TA

 

This argument will go on and on and on and on by smarter and dumber people than us..........

 

if a placbo works and cures you, great,

if steroids gets you 7 yellow jerseys and you dont care about the results but it works for you then great

if a forum passes the time during the day and its all BS but you enjoy it then great.

if TA works for you but not for others and they think its voodoo because it cant be proved beyond doubt then so what. If it could be proved beyond doubt - then is it not the elusive holy grail that does not exist, and if it did then by definition everyone would use it and circumstances would change so that it does not exist?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'd take a different approach. Not that Buffett or Winton are wrong exactly, just that they're playing different games to the majority of small time traders.

 

Winton and Buffett are so huge, that they can't enter and exit at precise values. These can move the market temporarily. And if you move the market when trading, then you increase the error associated with your technical analysis.So if I believe it is going to turn up at price X, with target Y, and I can't enter there, without getting an average price of X+error, and out at Y-error, then I've lost 2*error, the larger you get, the larger the error, and the less well this is going to work.

 

Winton and Buffett can't get out of a trade in an instant, we can. Technical analysis can work for us, and not them. It doesn't make it invalid.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Warren Buffett is an expert on everything.You know why? because he is rich.

When someone is extremely rich it buys them the ability to talk shit and have people agree with them.

For some strange reason,many people feel intimidated by other people's money.That is why the SEC goes after small fry and not Bernie M.

He has never used TA and neither have most of the readers of any article or members of his audience.He isn't qualified to talk jack shit about something he knows nothing about.

The financial WMD he so despises didn't prevent him from finally dealing in them once he realised he was A- running out of time and B- in danger of getting down to his last few billion.

 

Be honest,if a paper written by a Professor Concluded TA was worthless because he turned the chart upside down he'd be laughed out of the room.

I'll bet if a man as capable as WB at making money was forced to use TA he'd make a damn sight better job of it than all the people who think the sun shines out of his ass.

 

It is a lot easier to trade markets when one is assured that his $5 billion investment in a failing company such as GS will be supported by the federal reserve bank and that his investment in preferred stock will pay him a 10% dividend plus options to purchase the stock at 115. I wouldn't call that either FA or TA; instead, I would call it insider trading or some other fitting term.

 

Recall that GS made bad bets with AIG who could not make good on its bet. GS should have failed along side AIG, but was supported by American taxpayers who provided AIG the funds to pay back GS.

 

 

.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There is no holy grail in trading not even technical analysis bt i have seen in my short trading career that simple 50,200 DMA and S/R levels on Daily Charts (be it any asset) is the best and also the simplest setup when it comes to TA and it works often if not always...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Something I'd like to point out regarding Warren Buffet: What he reports his analysis to be and what he actually uses may not be the same. We certainly know it is not in the interest of a successful investor or trader to divulge his or her actions in real time (say you're trying to offload 500,000 shares of INTC, do you want to go on CNBC and announce that you're doing so?) But extending this out further it is questionable if they would even want to divulge their true techniques. Do Warren Buffet and George Soros really want to have more of their own kind to compete against.

 

Buffet claims that he is completely indifferent to price movement. But is he? Would he tell us if this were untrue?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

:helloooo: Most people "think" they know how to analyze technically but in reality they don't. They are using the tools without any background knowledge , even if they have background knowledge chances are it might be primitive without any authentic source , i do not consider forum discussion about technical analysis authentic.

Technical analysis works beautifully for those who know how to follow it as they usually have experience in trading and have a realization that there is a 50% chance of it working and letting the winner ride but a 100% chance of cutting the looser short.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest OILFXPRO
of course it works, but like anything in life, one needs to dig harder for success in the field

 

It depends on the quality of the technical analyst and how he analyses the trade , if he analyzes poorly it is a mess up but if he analyses correctly he can make billions

Edited by OILFXPRO

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Unless a trader is using a random entry or is trading fundamentals then he is using TA.

 

I use a random entry, but I'd consider myself to be a technical analyst

 

Personally, my belief is that unless technical analysis is based on an evidence based approach, I don't really consider it to be technical analysis at all.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Your dashed line seems to be in a consolidation phase. I would expect it to stay flat.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Be careful who you blame.   I can tell you one thing for sure.   Effective traders don’t blame others when things start to go wrong.   You can hang onto your tendency to play the victim, or the martyr… but if you want to achieve in trading, you have to be prepared to take responsibility.   People assign reasons to outcomes, whether based on internal or external factors.   When traders face losses, it's common for them to blame bad luck, poor advice, or other external factors, rather than reflecting on their own personal attributes like arrogance, fear, or greed.   This is a challenging lesson to grasp in your trading journey, but one that holds immense value.   This is called attribution theory. Taking responsibility for your actions is the key to improving your trading skills. Pause and ask yourself - What role did I play in my financial decisions?   After all, you were the one who listened to that source, and decided to act on that trade based on the rumour. Attributing results solely to external circumstances is what is known as having an ‘external locus of control’.   It's a concept coined by psychologist Julian Rotter in 1954. A trader with an external locus of control might say, "I made a profit because the markets are currently favourable."   Instead, strive to develop an "internal locus of control" and take ownership of your actions.   Assume that all trading results are within your realm of responsibility and actively seek ways to improve your own behaviour.   This is the fastest route to enhancing your trading abilities. A trader with an internal locus of control might proudly state, "My equity curve is rising because I am a disciplined trader who faithfully follows my trading plan." Author: Louise Bedford Source: https://www.tradinggame.com.au/
    • SELF IMPROVEMENT.   The whole self-help industry began when Dale Carnegie published How to Win Friends and Influence People in 1936. Then came other classics like Think And Grow Rich by Napoleon Hill, Awaken the Giant Within by Tony Robbins toward the end of the century.   Today, teaching people how to improve themselves is a business. A pure ruthless business where some people sell utter bullshit.   There are broke Instagrammers and YouTubers with literally no solid background teaching men how to be attractive to women, how to begin a start-up, how to become successful — most of these guys speaking nothing more than hollow motivational words and cliche stuff. They waste your time. Some of these people who present themselves as hugely successful also give talks and write books.   There are so many books on financial advice, self-improvement, love, etc and some people actually try to read them. They are a waste of time, mostly.   When you start reading a dozen books on finance you realize that they all say the same stuff.   You are not going to live forever in the learning phase. Don't procrastinate by reading bull-shit or the same good knowledge in 10 books. What we ought to do is choose wisely.   Yes. A good book can change your life, given you do what it asks you to do.   All the books I have named up to now are worthy of reading. Tim Ferriss, Simon Sinek, Robert Greene — these guys are worthy of reading. These guys teach what others don't. Their books are unique and actually, come from relevant and successful people.   When Richard Branson writes a book about entrepreneurship, go read it. Every line in that book is said by one of the greatest entrepreneurs of our time.   When a Chinese millionaire( he claims to be) Youtuber who releases a video titled “Why reading books keeps you broke” and a year later another one “My recommendation of books for grand success” you should be wise to tell him to jump from Victoria Falls.   These self-improvement gurus sell you delusions.   They say they have those little tricks that only they know that if you use, everything in your life will be perfect. Those little tricks. We are just “making of a to-do-list before sleeping” away from becoming the next Bill Gates.   There are no little tricks.   There is no success-mantra.   Self-improvement is a trap for 99% of the people. You can't do that unless you are very, very strong.   If you are looking for easy ways, you will only keep wasting your time forgetting that your time on this planet is limited, as alive humans that is.   Also, I feel that people who claim to read like a book a day or promote it are idiots. You retain nothing. When you do read a good book, you read slow, sometimes a whole paragraph, again and again, dwelling on it, trying to internalize its knowledge. You try to understand. You think. It takes time.   It's better to read a good book 10 times than 1000 stupid ones.   So be choosy. Read from the guys who actually know something, not some wannabe ‘influencers’.   Edit: Think And Grow Rich was written as a result of a project assigned to Napoleon Hill by Andrew Carnegie(the 2nd richest man in recent history). He was asked to study the most successful people on the planet and document which characteristics made them great. He did extensive work in studying hundreds of the most successful people of that time. The result was that little book.   Nowadays some people just study Instagram algorithms and think of themselves as a Dale Carnegie or Anthony Robbins. By Nupur Nishant, Quora Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/    
    • there is no avoiding loses to be honest, its just how the market is. you win some and hopefully more, but u do lose some. 
    • $CSCO Cisco Systems stock, nice top of range breakout, from Stocks to Watch at https://stockconsultant.com/?CSCOSEPN Septerna stock watch for a bottom breakout, good upside price gap
    • $CSCO Cisco Systems stock, nice top of range breakout, from Stocks to Watch at https://stockconsultant.com/?CSCOSEPN Septerna stock watch for a bottom breakout, good upside price gap
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.