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Crude8
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I use SAR along with Multiple Timeframe Analysis. The only thing i feel about Indicators is one should have experience to know when to stop trading with indicators plus knowing when to take out 50% out of the big deal so that we don't give more than 50% back to the markets.
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Well i am currently live on 3 strategies :- Pair trade btw energy [i take 1 or 2 high probability trades in this] Semi-Automated intra trend following [5 -8 trades per market on metals ] Tape reading trades or scalps via dom [100-200 per market IF and only only IF crude oil is active] 3rd one the tape reading one occurs probably once in a quarter where in a day i might make 200-250 trades each in oil & natgas. You know i have exchange membership in mcx , commissions are not to much for me
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Yup i am a clueless trader some of my best and rewarding trades have been done this way. Staying at topic i have been following my system (semi-automated strategy) quite rigorously and i have come to except that what really matters is a positive expectancy over accuracy and analysis. Cheers!!
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How To Trail Stops On Winning Swing Trades For Maximum Profit
Crude8 replied to morpheustrading's topic in Tech Analysis
Simple Parabolic SAR will do the trick of trailing a winning swing trade -
Well i suffered a draw down of about -2.89% last week & my accuracy was 38.75% last week and i was winning 3 times i was loosing but due to costs and more looser, i ended down which i covered in 1 day (Monday) for equity & 2 days (Tuesday) for commodities & this week was one of the best weeks in my live trading for this system & i have been trading it for 29 trading days and have 80% winning days & 20% loosing days Overall accuracy is 49% while this week 60% were winners Have a profitable next week Cheers!!
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hope you guys had a great week , i sure did and here i have my full 4 weeks results Number Of Trades - 267 Winning Trades - 135 Loosing Trades - 132 Win% - 50.5% Loss% - 49.5% Avg Win/Avg Loss Ratio - 2.96 Avg Win Trade Time - 75 Minutes Avg Loss Trade Time - 30 Minutes Profitable Trading Days - 84.21% [16 out of 19] Loosing Trading Days - 15.79% [3 out of 19] Profit Factor - 3.02 Expectancy - $ 6.76 i may be calculating sharpe ratio wrongly but it sure is coming at 6.88, is this possible ? well this week i inquired about algorithmic trading and the cost is coming around $500 per month for the server which they are saying will be installed at the broker end, not sure about other products yet but i am keen on setting up my automated routine by September ,lets see if i am able to find an optimal fit for the wallet as i think $500 per month is pretty stiff . Whats is your opinion about the algo costs ?
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I downloaded a excel sheet just now and filled in the values in it and i got this result Avg Annual Risk-Free Rate - 7.5% Average Annual Returns - 16.12% Standard Deviation - 0.01 Sharpe Ratio - 6.40 Instead of years i entered weekly returns (3 weeks) , i can do this again tomorrow for each day return (14 days out of which 12 days green and 2 days red) , i will continue to monitor this and i will have more data from this week as well. Okay gentlemen have a profitable week ahead, i am of to sleep now , i trade (sometimes overtrade :doh:) for 12-14 hours so i might not get a chance to post until next friday. I am getting infrastructure in place so that i can understand from my scalping statistics where/when/why i am over trading and hopefully this method turns out to have edge rather than luck so that i can move above the scalping world and relax a little!
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As a scalper i can make upto 500 trades in a day IF conditions warrants it in Oil/Natgas. This system is not really a system per se more of sort of like one of my side projects for intraday positional trades with bias, as a scalper i really don't care where it is(market direction) as long as i can manage to keep my avg buy cost < avg sell cost. Like i have mentioned before i concentrate on income rather than statistics and i have never much paid attention which i am changing now off course. I will look over at the link you have provided and report back. Although i think i have been in this business long enough to know that having a accuracy above 50% doesn't actually guarantee an edge. In India our trading platforms don't provide much statistics from our broker end apart from simple buy/sell statements
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Technical Analysis: Is it voodoo? Or does it work?
Crude8 replied to Soultrader's topic in Market News & Analysis
:helloooo: Most people "think" they know how to analyze technically but in reality they don't. They are using the tools without any background knowledge , even if they have background knowledge chances are it might be primitive without any authentic source , i do not consider forum discussion about technical analysis authentic. Technical analysis works beautifully for those who know how to follow it as they usually have experience in trading and have a realization that there is a 50% chance of it working and letting the winner ride but a 100% chance of cutting the looser short. -
Thank you for the reply, i have traded only 1 lot live but i have implemented a position sizing algorithm which i have simulated during the course of last 3 weeks, Average Sizing in simulated environment varies between 1-4 lots depending upon my equity and average size comes out to 2.5 lots per market. Unscientifically speaking 1 lot result can be easily replicated on 100 lots per market BUT off course i am not financially ready for that yet. I do not wish to disclose the strategy on public forum but i can share it privately. The statistics i provided to you were net of costs and slippages. Chance of strategy failing seems limited as majority amount of analysis is discretionary and even if i were to automate the execution , the speculation bias would be given at my discretion , say for example i consider the market a short sell - the algo will take only sell signals & stay flat during buy signal (rather than being long) , usually i have a large timeframe employed which ensures that i don't get scared by counter trend movement in smaller timeframes as by logic i would be flat during those times.
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Hello gentlemen i need your guidance in determining if trading system posses some edge. i have been a scalper in commodities and i have incorporated a new approach which is sort of intraday positional trading and its possible to scale it up to 500 - 1000 lots based on my unscientific observations , unlike back testing or real time simulation i implemented it live on 1 lot straight away without any scientific approach , i am hoping i may get help in this forum who can conduct a thorough scientific dissection if it has some edge or its just fluke The results are as follows - After 3 weeks Number Of trades - 176 Winning trades - 86 Loosing trades - 90 Winning% - 49% Loosing% - 51% Average Win Amount - 1112 Average Loss Amount - 373 Average Win Trade Time - 76 Minutes Average Loss Trade Time - 32 Minutes Average Win/Average Loss ratio - 3.05 Profit Factor - 2.86 Expectancy - 355 Before starting i didn't used to measure any statistics and i found few online which i complied , used these formulas Expectancy = (Probability of Win * Average Win) – (Probability of Loss * Average Loss) Profit Factor = (Avg Win/Avg Loss)* Win%/(1-Win%) My question is obviously there are traders who are more into statistics than myself , i need your help to see if my trading does have an edge Regards
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I am a Retail Full Time Trader and i day trade commodities, mostly Energy and position trade stocks.