Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Recommended Posts

Ask anyone to trade wyckoff live on this forum even if done so in a live simulator. Sure there will be some slippage..etc but with wyckoff trading a tick or two on entry or exit shouldn't matter too much.

 

I don't imagine you will get any takers...

 

But....if you do...you may learn something about whether or not wyckoff works in the real world. If a trader cannot make it work on a sim (which is about as close to real training as you are gonna get) it certainly won't work with a real money account.

 

Of course, not all wyckoff traders can make it work well but if none can then you may have a rational answer.

 

Maybe the wyckoff gurus...promoters...believers...will trade live on a sim...i doubt it...:rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Theory sounds so uberlogic, yet it's unprovable. No matter if you watch them live trading once or for a year. Doesn't tell you anything about the real results if you know abou. Especially in a case like a Wyckoff approach, that's so diffuse that you can't even name fixed rules (even discretion can be framed, if you have the ability to structure and abstract.;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Theory sounds so uberlogic, yet it's unprovable. No matter if you watch them live trading once or for a year. Doesn't tell you anything about the real results if you know abou. Especially in a case like a Wyckoff approach, that's so diffuse that you can't even name fixed rules (even discretion can be framed, if you have the ability to structure and abstract.;)

Well what is your measure of "superior" as stated in your first post? Do you want to know if wyckoff has a:

 

1) higher win rate?

2) better R:R

3) feasible ..superior way..to make money with?

4) can be driven by rules?

 

 

Bottom line just what do you wish to learn about wyckoff and how will you know when you can say "i know wyckoff is superior because......."

 

Why were you asking for peoples experiences trading it live when you don't think watching someone trading it live is useful?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I am not sure what you're talking about. Here we do our own analysis. When someone gives you a report it's current but what difference does it make for someone who's learning? A few years or a hundred years old report is all the same. The idea is to get the proper way of thinking in order.

 

There are tonnes of charts with explanations if you use the search function. Whatever tickles your fancy type it in and start reading. Eventually, you'll have to do the analysis on your own. If you post something you've analyzed perhaps someone would comment on it.

 

The Wyckoff material and course used here is the original course which is devoid of the exotic terms later added by the SMI. It is not to say SMI's interpretation of Wyckoff may not be profitable, but in this forum we're not interested in the interpretations of Wyckoff but stick with the original.

 

I wish you well.

 

Gringo

 

Dear Gringo,

 

Yes, i am looking for the study case, report, analysis which using wyckoff method. It is bettet is current analysis because we dont know the future. I see the analysis and follow to see what is happen in future.

But currently, it doesn't have this type of analysis. I am also happy if I can find some document, study case, analysis or report in the past. Cuold you share me somewhere i can find it

 

Thanks you a lot

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I suggest you use this analysis from 1930 done by Wyckoff and cover the right side of the chart. Move bar by bar and read the analysis. This will be more helpful to you in my opinion. Once you understand it then try to see how someone else is analyzing the market. Keep in mind when someone else does the analysis in real time the unfolding on it may take many days. The point is not to predict what's going to happen but rather to decipher where the balance of supply and demand resides.

 

I hope my response answers your question. I may have misinterpreted what you had wanted.

 

Gringo

Edited by DbPhoenix

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I suggest you use this analysis from 1930 done by Wyckoff and cover the right side of the chart. Move bar by bar and read the analysis. This will be more helpful to you in my opinion. Once you understand it then try to see how someone else is analyzing the market. Keep in mind when someone else does the analysis in real time the unfolding on it may take many days. The point is not to predict what's going to happen but rather to decipher where the balance of supply and demand resides.

 

Use this link if you already haven't gone through this study: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/wyckoff-forum/3876-basics.html

 

I hope my response answers your question. I may have misinterpreted what you had wanted.

 

Gringo

 

Dear Gringo,

 

Thanks you for your suggestion. I read your recomended document and also the course from SMI.

 

I mean that, to understand thorounghly, i need to read more and more example, study case or report so I am looking for type of these document

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just wanted to stop here and say Thank you. Thank you for helping me about 1.5 years ago when these forums was really active at TL. I learned so much about simplicity, trading journal.

 

I took some time off ES to focus on another job. But back for and still keeping up with my journal and developing my own trading plan. Still trading paper. That's right. Two years and still trading paper. I'm still learning and having fun.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Wyckoff threads become quiet, everybody in the thread have gave up wyckoff method?

 

I want to know why

Haven't you heard? Nothing works anymore because of puters and hfts...algos...:helloooo: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have been reading on VSA and Wyckoff for a little while but I usually have problems differentiating between Accumulation and Redistribution (Distribution and Reaccumulation also). On the hourly timeframe you get the typical selling climax and trading range but when you think its ready to shoot up into a markup it just keeps on going down breaking the selling climax low. The problem is I'm not sure whether the top of the trading range is acting as an automatic rally in the accumulation phase or no participation on the upside allowing the markdown to continue down (Redistribution).

Waiting for the break of the trading range will answer this question but you could find yourself at the end of the trading day letting the market pass you by.

Any tips?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hi there,

 

yes...like any volume analysis, you are considering only the one offered by your broker...not the whole market.....that is the problem with all the volume based analysis.

 

TW

 

That's only in the Fx markets.

 

Wiz,

 

I never understood, when there are so many other choices, why one would trade a market were you never have the slightest idea of volume, order flow, size transactions or the participation of size/commercial traders. Could you please tell us?

 

I have always considered Fx a sucker's market and the only reason people traded it was because they first didn't know any better and second because they didn't have the resources either fiscal or intellectual to trade anything else.

 

Wiz - I respect your posts, your position on this forum and your license with the Merchant Marine - Please show me the errors in my thinking.

 

UB

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
That's only in the Fx markets.

 

Wiz,

 

I never understood, when there are so many other choices, why one would trade a market were you never have the slightest idea of volume, order flow, size transactions or the participation of size/commercial traders. Could you please tell us?

 

I have always considered Fx a sucker's market and the only reason people traded it was because they first didn't know any better and second because they didn't have the resources either fiscal or intellectual to trade anything else.

 

Wiz - I respect your posts, your position on this forum and your license with the Merchant Marine - Please show me the errors in my thinking.

 

UB

 

Hi there,

 

I really don't know where to begin with....

 

I trade currencies more than 8 years now...this is what I do, day in day out....no stocks, no nothing....

 

Advantages?...come on, don't make me pick the obvious 24/7 trading, etc.....

 

Maybe it's only me, I'm an economist, MBA graduate in International Business, American University, and that being said I like to compare economies around the globe. Well, if you do that, you might as well look at their currencies. Well again, if you do that as well, you might as well trade those currencies.

 

Combine the above with technical analysis.

 

And consider the satisfaction of beating the market year in, year out.

 

And then you would not want to trade anything else than forex, as those markets look like peanuts on the global arena/macro-economic thinking/technical-fundamental reasoning, etc.

 

From my point of view, everyone else is either incapable of grasping the reality above, or lacking the intellectual capacity to do that.

 

So the easiest way is to trade volumes....:)....what a crap........sorry for that, I will ban myself :crap:

 

TW

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I use demos by ECN brokers (Forex) which give a better view of the market than say a market making broker. Volumes seem to be quite accurate. My question is related to distinguishing between Accumulation and Redistribution especially when the market is already falling and you cant be sure whether the wide spread and consolidation is strength or weakness. I am looking at viewing higher timeframes like H4 to help with this but would love other tips. I was also looking comparing the range of other high volume bars.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I have been reading on VSA and Wyckoff for a little while but I usually have problems differentiating between Accumulation and Redistribution (Distribution and Reaccumulation also). On the hourly timeframe you get the typical selling climax and trading range but when you think its ready to shoot up into a markup it just keeps on going down breaking the selling climax low. The problem is I'm not sure whether the top of the trading range is acting as an automatic rally in the accumulation phase or no participation on the upside allowing the markdown to continue down (Redistribution).

 

Waiting for the break of the trading range will answer this question but you could find yourself at the end of the trading day letting the market pass you by.

 

Any tips?

 

Well, first, VSA and Wyckoff have little to do with each other.

 

Second, accumulation takes time. Weeks, if not months. An hourly chart isn't going to be of much use.

 

Third, if you're talking about futures, there is no accumulation directly. You'd have to review all the most-heavily-weighted stocks, and the accumulation ship sailed long ago.

 

You may want to post this to the VSA Forum.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I use demos by ECN brokers (Forex) which give a better view of the market than say a market making broker. Volumes seem to be quite accurate. My question is related to distinguishing between Accumulation and Redistribution especially when the market is already falling and you cant be sure whether the wide spread and consolidation is strength or weakness. I am looking at viewing higher timeframes like H4 to help with this but would love other tips. I was also looking comparing the range of other high volume bars.

 

HOW DO YOU KNOW THAT?

 

gees....

 

TW

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hi there,

 

I really don't know where to begin with....

 

I trade currencies more than 8 years now...this is what I do, day in day out....no stocks, no nothing....

 

Advantages?...come on, don't make me pick the obvious 24/7 trading, etc.....

 

Maybe it's only me, I'm an economist, MBA graduate in International Business, American University, and that being said I like to compare economies around the globe. Well, if you do that, you might as well look at their currencies. Well again, if you do that as well, you might as well trade those currencies.

 

Combine the above with technical analysis.

 

And consider the satisfaction of beating the market year in, year out.

 

And then you would not want to trade anything else than forex, as those markets look like peanuts on the global arena/macro-economic thinking/technical-fundamental reasoning, etc.

 

From my point of view, everyone else is either incapable of grasping the reality above, or lacking the intellectual capacity to do that.

 

So the easiest way is to trade volumes....:)....what a crap........sorry for that, I will ban myself :crap:

 

TW

Reality, on a macro economic scale, takes time to develop. A market can remain "irrational" longer than one can remain solvent.

 

The information you are gathering to win year in and year out may have been voiced to you from Lady Luck rather than your volitional consciousness.

 

I would take the money and run, but don't ban yourself from TL. You are fun to have around.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hi there, I really don't know where to begin with....I trade currencies more than 8 years now...this is what I do, day in day out....no stocks, no nothing....Advantages?...come on, don't make me pick the obvious 24/7 trading, etc.....Maybe it's only me, I'm an economist, MBA graduate in International Business, American University, and that being said I like to compare economies around the globe. Well, if you do that, you might as well look at their currencies. Well again, if you do that as well, you might as well trade those currencies. Combine the above with technical analysis. And consider the satisfaction of beating the market year in, year out. And then you would not want to trade anything else than forex, as those markets look like peanuts on the global arena/macro-economic thinking/technical-fundamental reasoning, etc.

From my point of view, everyone else is either incapable of grasping the reality above, or lacking the intellectual capacity to do that.

So the easiest way is to trade volumes....:)....what a crap........sorry for that, I will ban myself :crap:TW

 

All due respect to your background in Macroeconomic stats etc, short term trading is about short term technicals and in Fx trading all of your technicals are price based with no consideration of volume, depth or order/money flow.

 

In more fully disclosed markets, the trader who only uses price based inputs is at a disadvantage to those able to read volume velocity, balance and transaction size as well as market depth.

 

As to your condescension based post, Trading Wizard, as an online poker player I find that those with such screen names as PokerStud, really aren't. Kind of like your 100 ton toy boat license.

 

 

UB

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
All due respect to your background in Macroeconomic stats etc, short term trading is about short term technicals and in Fx trading all of your technicals are price based with no consideration of volume, depth or order/money flow.

 

In more fully disclosed markets, the trader who only uses price based inputs is at a disadvantage to those able to read volume velocity, balance and transaction size as well as market depth.

 

As to your condescension based post, Trading Wizard, as an online poker player I find that those with such screen names as PokerStud, really aren't. Kind of like your 100 ton toy boat license.

 

 

UB

 

thank you, you're too kind.

 

TW

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
All due respect to your background in Macroeconomic stats etc, short term trading is about short term technicals and in Fx trading all of your technicals are price based with no consideration of volume, depth or order/money flow.

 

In more fully disclosed markets, the trader who only uses price based inputs is at a disadvantage to those able to read volume velocity, balance and transaction size as well as market depth.

 

As to your condescension based post, Trading Wizard, as an online poker player I find that those with such screen names as PokerStud, really aren't. Kind of like your 100 ton toy boat license.

 

 

UB

 

thank you, you're too kind.

 

TW

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I’m not sure how much of an advantage a trader gains by reading volume velocity, balance and transaction size, and market depth, but I would think that after reading all the threads on the Wyckoff Forum one can see that trading pure price can be extremely successful.

 

One can still determine from price where S/R levels are and how price acts as it approaches them. Let’s not forget that time and speed can also be used to judge what price is doing. A trader can be very successful with just using price, S/D lines, TL, time and speed, regardless of the market being traded.

 

Perhaps someone could start another thread like the trading in foresight one to show that it can still be done. While I enjoyed reading it, the majority of it was completed years before I stumbled onto the forum. It would be nice to see the thread active again and sharing ideas and honing the Wyckoff concepts when it comes to charts.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Wyckoff threads become quiet, everybody in the thread have gave up wyckoff method?

 

I want to know why

 

There's a long answer to that and a short one, but even the short one is longer than one might expect.

 

There is a line beyond which "if at first you don't succeed, try, try again" becomes "enough is enough". After five years of trying to persuade people to read W's course, much less study it, and arguing with the VSA people who think they're "trading Wyckoff" when VSA and Wyckoff have virtually nothing to do with each other, and arguing with those who think they're "trading Wyckoff" when they are actually trading Evans' adaptation of it (which is just about everybody), I decided to take another direction and develop the SLA.

 

Is the SLA an interpretation and modification and adaptation of Wyckoff? Yes. What distinguishes it from all the other interpretations and modifications and adaptations is that the SLA is actually founded in Wyckoff's original course, not in what somebody read that somebody wrote who heard something somewhere. In that regard, it is to the best of my knowledge unique.

 

Hint: if whatever you're reading refers to "ice" or "creeks" or "springs" or "'laws' of cause and effect or effort and result" and/or includes indicators of one sort or another, then it is not Wyckoff's original course.

 

Granted Wyckoff's course can be a rough road, particularly for the video generation who are much more attuned to visuals than the printed word. Add to that the fact that it was written almost a hundred years ago and the stylistic differences can be challenging, though it's a hell of a lot easier than Dickens. I attempted to ameliorate these difficulties by suggesting Wyckoff Lite, but even this proved to be too much for most. Which brings us back to the SLA. And though the SLA may seem to some of those who've actually studied W's original course as a sort of Paint-By-Number approach to Wyckoff, most of those who read, study, and try to implement it (even 20 pages is too much for a great many people) are at least beginning to understand what trading price means and is and can do.

 

Therefore, Wyckoff will now be addressed and explained within the context of the SLA. The objective is of course to launch traders on the road to making money, not to torture them with material which -- if they are under 40 -- may seem archaic. Interested traders have been playing with the SLA for a little over two years now, and far more of them now not only understand what trading price is all about, they are also beginning to make money with it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Similar Content

    • By vishnux
      Hey guys , what are the main things you look for to detect if the consolidation area is accumulating or distributing ? 
      1 ) I see springs in top , still markup happens and it becomes accumulation area and vice versa
      2) There is lots of volume absorption in support line and still markdown occurs.
      3) sometimes in market high / low it becomes re-accumulation  / re-distribution
      Is there any clear way to find it ? 
    • By millonmethod
      Hello everyone!
      I am an advanced trader, with many years of experience (about 15 years - 10 living exclusively from this)
      I am going to give you some tips that you must know:
      There are going to be many people who tell you that trade is easy, that with only crossiing a line  with another one you will win a lot of money.... and that´s not true.  No, Sir, reality is far away from that. Many people who start arrive here with the hope that someone "gives them" a free method, they watch youtube videos thinking that this will give them the "strategy" and in a few days they realize that it does not work for them - they lose money - and then They go looking for a new one ... and so on. YES, IT´S TRUE YOU EARN IN TRADING, A LOT. BUT THINK: for a few to win (10% + any BROKER) many others must lose (90% people). YOU MUST HAVE A MONEY MANAGMENT FORMULA ( you can email me) People study so many years to live on this, not because they are dumb, but to know what they do, when, and have absolute effectiveness. It´s very easy to get lost here: do not disperse, jumping from one to another strategy WILL NEVER give you money, it will only waste your time and make you nervous when trading. PEOPLE WHO CHANGE THEIR METHOD CONSTANTLY : LOOOOSE ALWAYS.   If you have the knowledge to develop it, take your time and do it.  Always try it first on DEMO for at least 2 weeks! If not: search to buy a solid strategy (no you tube videos pleassse ! Avoid losing money! ) This is like any business, it requires some capital to start (capital = money in the broker + solid made /purchased strategy) If you are lost: I RECOMMEND YOU NOT TO WASTE TIME IN YOUTUBE, JOIN PEOPLE WHO HAVE EXPERIENCE AND IF YOU ARE GOING TO BUY A METHOD ... PLEASE !!!! DO NOT BUY 10 BAD AND CHEAP METHODS, SAVE MONEY AND BUY ONLY 1 BUT EXCLUSIVE AND MUST ALLWAYS HAVE SUPPORT !!!!!  Do not buy Signals! They never keep up with constant profits! One week will win and the next will lose. Nothing that does not depend absolutely on you will give you the money you are looking for. And if you do not have a strategy (made or purchased) do not even try PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE: DO NOT USE REAL MONEY! AT LEAST 2 WEEK DEMO FREE HELP HERE!!!!!  IF YOU FOLLOW MY ADVICE YOU WILL BE PART OF THAT 10% WINNER, email me.
      Have a nice trading day
       
       
  • Topics

  • Posts

    • You should never give in to the rumors as it could lead you to bankruptcy if it isn't true.
    • Yeah, and you should never stop learning. If you wish to survive in the Forex Market, the only way to do it is by learning all the time.
    • Date : 1st December 2021. Market Update – December 1 – Taper gets a boost & Transitory gets “retired”. Powell “retires” Transitory in light of Omicron & surprisingly suggests faster taper – Stocks tank, Dollar& Yields rise on faster tightening expectations.   USD (USDIndex 95.90) back down from leap to 96.60 on Powell testimony. Saw fresh wave of risk aversion as Treasuries sold off, yields spiked (particularly the 2yr) , Stocks fell significantly with USA100 down over -2.4% (APPL bucked the trend +3.16%) USA500 -1.90% (-88pts) 4567 & USA30 off 652 pts or -1.86%. Consumer confidence saw a slump in the headline, and a rise to a 13-year high in the inflation component. The Chicago PMI fell to 61.8. Home prices increased to fresh record peaks. US Yields 10-year rates were down over 7 bps to 1.41% before closing at 1.443% before recovring to 1.468% now. Asian Markets – Equities – Topix and Nikkei are currently up 0.4%, the Hang Seng bounced 1.1% and the CSI 300 is up 0.1%. The ASX, which outperformed yesterday, dropped back -0.3%. Data over night – Japan’s manufacturing PMI came in stronger than expected and while China’s private PMI reading signalled stagnation at 49.9, that was compensated somewhat by the stronger than expected official manufacturing PMI released yesterday. AUD GDP was not as bad as expected -1.9% vs -2.7% & 0.7% last time. USOil – continues under pressure, down to $64.08 (14-week lows) yesterday – recovered to test $68.00 today – expectations continue to grow that OPEC+, will put on hold plans to add 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) of supply in January at their meeting tomorrow. Gold finally some intra-day volatility – Powell surprise spiked to $1808 – before testing $1770 with a couple of hours, back to $1788 now. FX markets – Yen rallied USDJPY dipped to 112.50, back to 113.40 now, EURUSD now 1.1326 & Cable steadied to 1.3300-1.3330. European Open – December 10-yr Bund future down -11 ticks at 172.26, slightly outperforming versus Treasury futures. Central bankers may be getting more nervous about inflation outlook, but Omicron clearly is clouding over growth outlook & in Europe at least that will boost the arguments of the cautious camp at the central banks. US yields remain firmly below the levels seen before the new virus variant hit the headlines & sentiment is likely to remain jittery, even if stocks are set to back up from yesterday’s lows, with DAX & FTSE 100 future posting gains of 0.9% and 0.7% respectively & a 1.4% jump in the NASDAQ leading US futures higher. Data releases today kicked off with a big miss for German Retail sales (-0.3% vs 1.0%), higher UK house prices & firmer CPI from CHF. Today – PMIs (EZ & UK),US Markit Final Manufacturing PMIs, US ADP and ISM Manufacturing PMI, JTC and OPEC meetings, BoE’s Bailey and Fed’s Powell & Yellen testify. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.60%) Risk-sensitive currencies remain volatile, from a slide to 76.65 yesterday, today a rally to 77.80. Currently MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram over 0 and rising, RSI dipping from 70.00 at 58, Stochastic remain OB. H1 ATR 0.172, Daily 0.84. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date : 30th November 2021. Market Update – November 30– Stocks at ups & downs. Omicron remains in focus and warnings that it will leave current vaccines far less effective and that it will take time to modify and produce new ones has seen markets adjusting growth forecasts and central bank projections.   USD (USDIndex 96.00 up from 95.92 low) saw a fresh wave of risk aversion as Treasuries sold off, but cautiously with only a modest back up in yields, & Stocks bounced significantly with the USA100 jumping over 2% intraday with IT a big winner. It closed with a 1.88% gain, with the USA500 1.3% firmer, and the USA30 up 0.68%. Wall Street stocks closed higher as investors were hopeful that the Omicron coronavirus variant would not lead to lockdowns after reassurance from US President Joe Biden. Moderna’s CEO told the FT that existing vaccines will be less effective and that it may take months before modified vaccines are available at scale. #Moderna +12.73% yesterday. US Yields 10- and 30-year rates were up just over 3 bps to 1.51% and 1.859%, respectively, with the 2-year 1bps higher at 0.508% The 10-year is currently corrected -3.9 bp to 1.46%, but it is still in negative territory, at -1.05% on Tuesday, keeping gold’s opportunity cost low. Equities – Topix and Nikkei are down -1.0% and -1.6% respectively, Hang Seng lost -2.3%, the CSI 300 -0.6%, while the ASX outperformed with a modest gain of 0.2%. USOil – down by 2%, drifted to $66.73 – after FT cast doubt on the efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines against the Omicron – expectations are growing that OPEC+, will put on hold plans to add 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) of supply in January. Gold spiked to $1795 – World Health Organization said on Monday carried a very high risk of infection surges. #TWTR was UP 12% pre-market on news Dorsey was leaving as CEO – it closed DOWN 2.74%. The USA100 rose+1.88%. FX markets – Yen rallied (a new flight to safety), Aussie and kiwi slide. USDJPY at 112.94, EURUSD now 1.1326 & Cable steadied to 1.3300-1.3330. European Open – The December 10-year Bund future is up 46 ticks, Treasury futures are outperforming and in cash markets the US 10-year rate has corrected -3.9 bp to 1.46% amid a fresh wave of risk aversion. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are down -1.5% and -1.1% respectively, while a -1.1% drop in the Dow Jones is leading US futures lower. In FX markets both EUR and GBP gained against the Dollar. EGB yields had moved higher against the background of improving risk appetite and a jump in German inflation yesterday, but while Eurozone HICP today is likely to exceed forecasts, central bankers have already been out in force to play down the importance of the number for the central bank outlook and rate expectations. Virus developments will also help to take the sting out of the number. Today – German labour market data, EU Inflation, Canadian GDP and US Consumer confidence are due today. Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen are due to testify before the US Senate Banking Committee at 15:00 GMT. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-0.68%) Risk-sensitive currencies slid and safe havens gained. AUDJPY dropped to 80 lows (S2). Currently MAs point rightwards, MACD signal line & histogram below 0, RSI rising above 30 but Stochastic OS. Hence a mixed picture intraday. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date : 29th November 2021. Market Update – November 29 – Omicron dominates sentiment. USD (USDIndex 96.30) recovers from Fridays slump (95.98), Stocks lost over –2.2% in thin half-day trading, Oil FUTS lost –13%, Gold slumped and Yields tanked (10-yr 1.482%) on a safe haven (JPY & CHF bid) risk off day. (and a strange carry trade bid for EUR). Weekend news, as Countries block flights and tighten restricts, but first Omicron cases in SA appear mild and hospitalizations have not spiked, has seen a bounce in sentiment and Asian markets. Pfizer suggested it would take 100 days to adapt new vaccine, if required. US Yields 10yr trades up 5.1 bp at 1.52%, after Friday’s slump. Equities – tanked in thin and short day on Friday USA500 -106.84 (-2.27%) at 45941 – USA500.F trades higher at 4639. USOil – collapsed to $67.08 – now up nearly $4 at $71.00. OPEC+ have delayed this weeks meeting by 2 days & likely to delay planned January production increases. Gold spiked under $1780, has bounced to $1795 but struggles to recoup $1800   FX markets – EURUSD now 1.1270, after a +125pip rally on Friday, USDJPY now 113.36, from 115.50 to 113.00 on Friday & Cable back to 1.3325. Overnight – JPY Retail Sales recover but miss expectations (0.9% vs 1.2% & -0.5% last time). European Open – The December 10-year Bund future is down -27 ticks, US futures are also in the red & the US 10-year rate is up 5.1 bp at 1.52%. Stock markets remained under pressure during the Asian part of the session, but DAX and FTSE 100 futures are up 1.2% and 1.3% respectively and a 1.2% rise in the NASDAQ is leading US futures higher. A part reversal of Friday’s flows then as virus developments remain in focus. Travel restrictions are making a come back and the services sector in particular is facing fresh pain, but as Lagarde suggested over the weekend, the impact of Omicron is unlikely to throw economies back to the situation at the start of the pandemic, meaning the overall situation has not really changed. We continue to see the ECB on course to end PEPP purchases on time in March next year, although developments will add to the arguments of those who want to keep the flexibility on the distribution of asset purchases at least for future emergencies. The BoE meanwhile may be postponing the planned rate hike into next year. Today – German regional and national CPIs, Eurozone Consumer Confidence (final), US Pending Home Sales, ECB’s de Guindos, Schnabel, Lagarde, Fed’s Williams, Powell. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) CADCHF (1.00%) The risk-off collapse on Friday 0.7400-0.7200 has recovered to 0.7280. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram rising but still below 0 line, RSI 53.80 & rising H1 ATR 0.0018, Daily ATR 0.0062. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.