YM, ES and DJIA Analysis

[DbPhoenix]

Perhaps it would be more appropriate to post these questions to the forum where the comments were originally made, though it's entirely up to James et al. My only reason for posting here in the first place was to find out what was on James' mind when he was approaching support.

[zeon]

	Quote:	DbPhoenix
	Perhaps it would be more appropriate to post these questions to the forum where the comments were originally made, though it's entirely up to James et al. My only reason for posting here in the first place was to find out what was on James' mind when he was approaching support.

I don't know, this thread is about YM/ES analysis after all?
Anyway, it's not up to be to decide what should be where, but I hope the discussion can focus on the content of the posts and not the location of them.

[james_gsx]

So, what's everyones thoughts going into this week? I have a "feeling" we will break resistance at 1400 and have a nice rally. But obviously, that doesn't work. We have 3 dojis against some major resistance and the 100 EMA. It's basically the same for all indexes, so I will only show the ES.

We also have declining volume during the rally. Overall, I would imagine this looks bearish. But I could also be looking at this from a bearish bias. Thoughts?

[BlowFish]

My 'gut' is saying the same as yours. That whole longer term R area round 1400 has not really been 'rejected' and it looks as if the little ledge here on the daly could be setting up for a push at it. Guess we'll know soon enough.

The FTSE opened up over a key level (though it had previousy closed banging its head against it) and has been going sideways this morning sitting on top. I'm not sure about the other European indexes, I'll take a look at the DAX later.

[MC]

Long term investing right now could be an incredible place to be, I feel the market has a VERY good shot at breaking into bull trend mode again soon. In January I predicted the 14k dow level to be tested (if not smashed) this year, let's see how much doom n' gloom is left and if I'm really crazy.

Here's the monthly where we have a nice channel we are in. Why would I call this a correction and not a bear market? Well for one the upwards channel has held up thus far and on top of that the 8ma hasn't crossed below the 21ma. We have been and are still in a "bear trend" but a bear market to me is not a accurate assessment yet. The 50ma and trend line are acting as confluent support. Note the ATR curling down which is often a sign of bullishness. ATR goes up when emotion is injected in the game by gloomy news to shake people out of shares.


The wedge we are in looks more descending to me. SO the path of least resistance technically is down. That being said the range is getting tight and much of my other evidence points up. The macd is near crossing for the bulls. Watch for the downtrend line and 21ma along with structure resistance to break. The worst should be over if we can break all those down. The next hurdle will be the 50ma.


The uptrend that's held so far actually stems back to late 2001. Yes the y2k bear broke the line down but TA is an art. Don't think that a trendline can't be broken yet remain valid. Look at how many times we have successfully tested this trendline, that cannot be ignored. Support wise we are backed by the confluent 200ma and trendline. Volume is concentrated at the bottoms which is accumulation, also the volume has decreased as the price has taken out new lows which shows selling could be drying up. On the mini runs the volume is pretty light so it appears they are not flipping and that confirms accumulation IMO. I do my analysis from the top down, starting with monthly and then getting more granular. Why is simple, because look at a daily chart and you will get whipsawed to hell. You need to go out further to reduce the noise on the charts.


As always JMHO
MC

[DbPhoenix]

I don't know if these will be of any interest to anyone, but I don't know where else to put them, and it does pay to look at the sectors in addition to the indexes.

I'm leaving these as thumbnails since there are so many. I hope they're self-explanatory. If not, please ask.

[brownsfan019]

Daily ES looking very bearish. You can just feel a big pop coming soon. Call it what you will - coiling effect, accumulation, test of highs, etc. - but this thing is setting up for a nice move. It looks bearish and I would stay bearish if trading on the daily. Gotta get to bed or would post a chart, but just pull up a daily ES and seeing some bearish looking patterns at/near a resistance point in my eyes. This thing is going to bust soon...

I know, how arbitrary is that. Point is a couple days of doji/spinning tops tells us candle traders that there is some indecision going on of where the next move is/could be. Bulls and bears are looking for a reason to act.

[james_gsx]

The charts look bearish, but I do think it could go either way. Waiting for that confirmation is crucial in times like this. You could get lucky - but try it again in the future to guess which way it will go and you'll most likely give all your money back.

Notice the gravestone doji on the ES. I also threw in the 15min chart. Notice how we opened and had a steady decline in volume, then as we sold off volume actually picked up.

[BlowFish]

One thing that makes me chuckle is how some commentators say things like "if it breaks 1350 its going down". Well duh 1350 is below us!

In that great spirit I'm going to say much the same that 50-60 area provided a minor obstacle on the way up about 10 days back and will need to be broken to go down (well duuuh). To confirm the downtrend is still intact we need to take out the January low. That little prod mid march I would call a double bottom even though it exceeded Jan's low by a point or two.

Will be interesting to see if it breaks today. Note to self when a strong break shows up intraday jump on and hold tight.

[DbPhoenix]

For myself, I look for evidence that the trading range we've been in since mid-January won't continue, since that would be the norm, i.e., yet another round-trip back to support. That is, after all, the way these things go. If prices do break out to the upside, fine. But what puzzles me is why those who purport to believe in selling strength suddenly now are counseling to buy it.