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[shooting star] Tweezers & Shooting Stars
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https://www.oftwominds.com/blogjan21/designed-to-fail1-21.html btw - a lot of trading systems have similar much larger decline in ‘buffer’ when the performance of the system declines ... just sayin’ -
the ‘crowd’ pushes a deep pressure on you, whether you’re aware of it or not... just sayin’
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By HFblogNews · Posted
Date : 19th January 2021. Market Update – January 19 – USD & Yen Slide. EURUSD, H1 The Dollar and Yen have come under pressure today after rallying yesterday. A bullish sentiment in global stock markets has boosted other currencies, particularly the dollar bloc and other cyclical units. The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index rose over 1.5% and clocked a new record high, buoyed in the wake of strong GDP and production data out of China yesterday. Europe’s Stoxx 600 fared less well, and was showing a modest 0.2% gain as of the late London morning session. US Index futures were up by over 0.5%. Commodities, in contrast, were lacklustre. Oil prices lifted moderately, rising above Monday’s highs, but remained off the 11-month highs that were pegged last week. Base metal prices were mixed.The USDIndex dropped below yesterday’s low to a nadir at S3 and 90.36. The index had yesterday printed a one-month high at 90.95. The dollar’s recent correlation with US Treasury yields broke, with the currency declining despite a concurrent 2 bp lift in the 10-year T-note yield to levels back above 1.10%. After rising on every trading day, except one, since January 6th, the Dollar had perhaps been looking ripe for a correction. Of interest, the latest Economist Big Mac index, which is a measure of 56 currency valuations according to the theory of purchasing power parity, shows the Dollar to be the fourth most overvalued currency, behind the Swiss franc, the Swedish krona, and the Norwegian krone. By this measure, the Euro is 9% undervalued relative to the Dollar, and the Pound 22% undervalued. This gives some insight into why the market has been so bearish of the Dollar in the beyond-Covid global reflation trade, which has the dominant macro investment thesis over the last couple of months.Ahead today, Ex Fed chair Janet Yellen will testify before Congress for her nomination as Treasury Secretary, where she will reportedly call for the US to “act big” on stimulus. Regarding the Dollar, she is expected to argue for market-determined exchange rates. Given the Fed’s inflation tolerant, lower-for-longer rubric on interest rate policy, alongside prospects for sharp rises in the budget and trade deficits, US economic policy under the incoming Biden administration is sure to be accepting of, if not wanting, a weaker Dollar.EURUSD – breached 1.2100 and trades north of R3 at 1.2144, Cable holds over 1.3600 having tested 1.3625 earlier, and USDJPY continues to rotate through 104.00. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. -
I have not posted much about the election - largely because TL is ostensibly an international group and god knows those of you not living in the US still probably hear way more than enough about US politics... I am actually just as concerned for the EU as I am for the US. Spoken mostly in terms of the EUR, over the years I have tried to be real blunt about gradual transition from a ‘trade agreement’ to a locus of totalitarian control, the ‘slow’ implosion of the actual benefits of the union, etc etc ... https://www.oftwominds.com/blogjan21/tyranny-of-cost1-21.html, and the actual consequences for people. ...and ... Don’t get me started on the far east...And btw - It’s incredible to watch people in all of the developed world be ‘good germans’ - apathetic in the face of tyranny ... Re US, I did project months and months ago this election would be tainted by corruption. It was. The DNC primaries were not real people primaries. Yes, sweetheart, I know, they never are. What I’m saying is they significantly departed to a whole new level of ‘centralization’ this election. The voting machine industry is corrupt as hell... one of them was developed to assure that ‘third world’ dictators would stay ‘elected. The other is playing the pious game... much like a computer antivirus company that ‘never ever would’ create and distribute a computer virus... Basically - tracking the acceleration of high level corruption is a good study in the decline of a civilization. I can’t help noticing the high correlation with hypocrisy and truth twisting and censorship by those with voice. Trump’s supporters (you know - the ones who show up for rallies, cheer, then go home) are today being smeared and castigated by the same media who lionized the BLM and antifa “peaceful protesters” who spent their summer rioting, looting, burning and pillaging Minneapolis, Milwaukee, Portland, Kenosha, Louisville and scores of other cities. As I have mentioned before, Trump was but a tap of the brakes on the headlong collective pitch into totalitarian ‘darkness’. Instead of draining the swamp, he has been progressively swallowed by the swamp ... his head now going out of sight by staged ‘violence’, false political accusations, and media propaganda to ‘write’ right the story. ... cancel culture in action . ... meanwhile back over near the ‘plandemic’ ... “The ideal set up by the Party was something huge, terrible, and glittering... all thinking the same thoughts and shouting the same slogans, perpetually working, fighting, triumphing, persecuting - three hundred million people all with the same face.” The ‘Party’ controls everything - the economy, daily life, and even the truth. In Orwell’s 1984, “the heresy of heresies was common sense.” If you think the republicrats are standing for your liberty, look carefully... they’re now avoiding being canceled by taking the “same face” ... condemning ‘violence’ that was staged ... ‘good german’ politicians... ... “Every record has been destroyed or falsified, every book rewritten, every picture has been repainted, every statue and street building has been renamed, every date has been altered.” ... “And the process is continuing day by day and minute by minute. History has stopped. Nothing exists except an endless present in which the Party is always right.” Dam George oWell! Were you writing a warning or a fkn playbook? One more time ... It’s incredible to watch the whole dam world be ‘good germans’ - apathetic in the face of tyranny...
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By HFblogNews · Posted
Date : 18th January 2021. Events to Look Out for This Week. US elections will dominate the markets in the week again, as the inauguration of Joe Biden will take place on Wednesday with security having been stepped up. From data perspective is all about inflation next week from UK, EU, Canada, New Zealand and Japan. However eye will be on central banks with BoC, BoJ and ECB rate decision in the spotlight. Monday – 18 January 2021 Gross Domestic Product (CNY, GMT 02:00) – Gross Domestic Product should advance in Q4 and reveal headline growth of 6.1% y/y and 3.2% q/q. Tuesday – 19 January 2021 Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 17:00) – The German HICP inflation for December is anticipated to remain unchanged at -0.7% y/y. Initial expectations had been for a slight lift in the annual rate, but national data out of Germany already indicated that the number would remain stuck at a very low level. Germany’s temporary VAT cut and base effects from energy prices are largely to blame for the negative rate. ECB Bank Lending Survey (EUR, GMT 09:00) Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 10:00) – European January ZEW economic sentiment is seen to have declined at 45.5 compared to 54.4 last month. Wednesday – 20 January 2021 The inauguration of Joe Biden as the 46th President will dominate headlines around the world! PBoC Interest Rate Decision (CNY, GMT 01:30) – The People’s Bank of China in this meeting should provide guidance on the next move in Loan Prime Rates. It is expected to continue to maintain flexibility in the exchange rate, stabilize market expectations, and keep the yuan basically stable at reasonable and balanced levels. Consumer Price Index and Retail Sales Index (GBP, GMT 07:00) – UK inflation data for December is anticipated higher at 0.5% y/y, after falling more than expected, to just 0.3% y/y in November, with the biggest downward contribution coming from food and non-alcohol beverages, along with clothing and footwear. The UK-wide Covid-19 lockdown in November suppressed price pressures. Inflation is likely to remain subdued over the next several months, but should pick up notably from spring, when base effects impact on year-on-year price comparisons. There is potential for pronounced reflation as 2021 progresses, assuming vaccine programs prove effective, which would facilitate a return towards societal and economic normalcy, and in turn trigger a possible consumer spending boom fuelled by ‘lockdown savings’. The Retail sales are seen at 1.1% y/y in December from 0.9% y/y last month. Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 10:00) – The final CPI headline and core are expected to show 0.3%m/m December gains, with core declining to 0.5% m/m. Consumer Price Index (CAD, GMT 13:30) – The CPI inflation accelerated to a 1.0% y/y pace in November, however, it is expected to decline in December to 0.8% y/y below the Bank’s target of 2% until 2023. Interest Rate Decision and Statement (CAD, GMT 15:00) – The BoC is expected to hold rates steady at 0.25% after December’s meeting in which extraordinary forward guidance remained in place as anticipated — the bank reiterated that it expects to hold rates at the effective lower bound until “economic slack is absorbed so that the 2% inflation target is sustainably achieved.” Thursday – 21 January 2021 Interest Rate Decision and Statement (JPY, GMT 03:00) – The BoJ is expected to hold rates steady at -0.1% after December’s meeting in which extraordinary forward guidance remained in place as anticipated — the bank reiterated that it expects to hold rates at the effective lower bound until “economic slack is absorbed so that the 2% inflation target is sustainably achieved.” The speculation is growing that the BoJ will scale back its ETF stock buying programme – given the strength in equities and the BoJ’s substantial ownership of this ETF sector. Interest Rate Decision, Statement and Conference (EUR, GMT 12:45) – The ECB to add more stimulus at the moment seems unlikely unless current restrictions remain in place much longer than anticipated. Hence, ECB is expected to keep policy steady at January meeting. The central bank’s focus is on maintaining very favourable financing conditions for both governments and companies, against the background of a pandemic that not only has weighed heavily on the growth outlook, but also contributed a further fragmentation of economies and markets. With the advent of vaccination programs there clearly is no appetite to cut rates again. Not that the ECB rules out such a step — if the situation deteriorates again, or an overshooting currency undermines the inflation outlook, the ECB won’t shy away from using that instrument if necessary. Friday – 22 January 2021 Markit PMI Composite (EUR, GMT 08:30-09:0) – Final December PMI readings brought downward revisions. The manufacturing PMI was revised to 55.2 from 55.5, while the services PMI came in at 46.4, versus 47.3 in the preliminary report, although still up from 41.7 in the previous month. The composite PMI was revised down to 49.1 from 49.8, again still an improvement from the 44.3 reported for November, but no signalling ongoing contraction, rather than the stabilisation the flash reading suggested. Social distancing measures and restrictions continued to weigh on the services sector and while the outlook in December was brightened by the prospect of vaccination programs, it is pretty clear now that restrictions won’t go away any time soon and that despite vaccines it will still be a very difficult winter. That means that while the downturn in overall activity in Q4 was less severe than thought at some point, the outlook for the first quarter looks very difficult and as Market highlighted the risk of a technical recession is greater now. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or raeliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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