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ThePistonDoctor

Underlying Theory Behind Candlestick Charting?

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Hello everyone!

 

I'm a fairly new trader working with the wonderful crew at Bulls on Wall Street (check them out at http://www.bullsonwallstreet.com if you've never heard of them, Kunal is a great guy!) and I am curious about the theory behind candlesticks patterns and why they work. I've read a couple of threads on this forum about the theory, but I haven't found quite the answer I'm looking for.

 

Let's take a hammer for example. Assume we are considering all the other parts of the market as well, i.e. perhaps the price is at the bottom of a downtrend on both the daily chart and a 5 minute chart, bouncing off a significant moving average or support level, and we see a useful amount of volume relative to the average. At the bottom, we see a hammer, then a reversal on the 5-minute chart into a significant and profitable uptrend. My question is this: We all know the pattern works in the right situation, but why? What is it about the shape of the hammer candlestick that signifies that selling has reached its end and buyers are now pouring in? I guess what I'm saying is, in a hammer, you know that the price over the period of that candle tried to go up a bit, then was dragged way down, but then came back up to close near but above the open price. Does that simply mean that at the low during that candle, there were a lot of buyers which brought the price back up? Is the rush of buyers at that low on the hammer the reason we assume that price has reached its bottom and that a reversal is imminent?

 

I'm just trying to understand more of the theory behind why these patterns work, and I think it is a good thing to understand rather than just blindly stabbing at a pattern (even if you're considering the other elements) because someone else told you it works. Also, is it possible that part of the reason these patterns work so consistently is that there are so many people that just blindly buy that idea, making it a self-fulfilling prophecy?

 

I'm really, really interested in understanding the underlying logic behind this, and I think it would yield a really good discussion. What are your ideas on this topic?

 

Thanks!!! :)

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My question is this: We all know the pattern works in the right situation, but why? What is it about the shape of the hammer candlestick that signifies that selling has reached its end and buyers are now pouring in?

 

hindsight......there is nothing about the shape of the hammer that signifies selling has reached the end.

its only a visual representation of what has happened.

The trades must occur for the hammer to occur, it is not the hammer (or any other pattern magically occurring and making the market bottom. (Cart before horse analogy)

 

In regards something working in the right situation....The context you mentioned previously is more important, otherwise I am sure you will find plenty of hammers, nails, blowtorches and wizamajingets. :2c:

 

(plus FYI if the first thing you do is plug another site here you may have sealed your fate :))

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There is some great research out there that most candlestick patterns only work around 30% of the time. As SIUYA mentioned we can find the patterns in hindsight, but have you ever tried to trade based on the patterns?

 

I would argue that the patterns do not work consistently enough to generate overall profitable trades. Just remember that you can find a chart to prove any theory once, but can it be traded in foresight not only in hindsight. Just remember that when these "Guru's" write their books and publish their articles they only need one chart that looks good to prove their point, what about the other 500 times that it does not work?

 

Just some food for thought.

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"Candlestick Charting Explained" by Gregory Morris has a section where he discloses his research on the subject....in my opinion its useless but there you go...

 

My question is why don't you do your own research so that the result refects your target market and most recent data?

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Hello everyone!

 

I'm a fairly new trader working with the wonderful crew at Bulls on Wall Street (check them out at BullsOnWallStreet - Stock Trader Community. Real-time access to the Bulls Trading Floor chat room with live trading discussion and ideas. Collaborate, learn, and trade with the best. Includes real-time stock picks, email alerts, and live interaction if you've never heard of them, Kunal is a great guy!) and I am curious about the theory behind candlesticks patterns and why they work. I've read a couple of threads on this forum about the theory, but I haven't found quite the answer I'm looking for.

 

Let's take a hammer for example. Assume we are considering all the other parts of the market as well, i.e. perhaps the price is at the bottom of a downtrend on both the daily chart and a 5 minute chart, bouncing off a significant moving average or support level, and we see a useful amount of volume relative to the average. At the bottom, we see a hammer, then a reversal on the 5-minute chart into a significant and profitable uptrend. My question is this: We all know the pattern works in the right situation, but why? What is it about the shape of the hammer candlestick that signifies that selling has reached its end and buyers are now pouring in? I guess what I'm saying is, in a hammer, you know that the price over the period of that candle tried to go up a bit, then was dragged way down, but then came back up to close near but above the open price. Does that simply mean that at the low during that candle, there were a lot of buyers which brought the price back up? Is the rush of buyers at that low on the hammer the reason we assume that price has reached its bottom and that a reversal is imminent?

 

I'm just trying to understand more of the theory behind why these patterns work, and I think it is a good thing to understand rather than just blindly stabbing at a pattern (even if you're considering the other elements) because someone else told you it works. Also, is it possible that part of the reason these patterns work so consistently is that there are so many people that just blindly buy that idea, making it a self-fulfilling prophecy?

 

I'm really, really interested in understanding the underlying logic behind this, and I think it would yield a really good discussion. What are your ideas on this topic?

 

Thanks!!! :)

 

Just for the benefit of the "yet to be profitable" traders..it's debatable whether these patterns "work".When they work,they work and when they don't....

Let's state the obvious here.If they worked,all i need to do is buy a book on candlesticks swat up for a couple of weeks and then proceed directly to wealth status. I'd have to decide of course,which self proclaimed genius i'm going to learn from- Steve Nison comes to mind simply because his name gets bandied about so often by other "experts"

But since the theory of Japanese candlesticks goes back a few hundred years in a land renowned for the pursuit of wisdom...unlike,say America,where money and war are the main hobbies,maybe i should avoid Stevie's second hand information,and go directly to the source.

Nice to hear they are " a wonderful crew at ballsupwallstreet" ,but a candlestick is just a representation of price.Sorry to state the obvious,but it seems to me that many would be traders are obsessed by exactly the things that have zero value in reading a market.

You can talk about putting your candlestick in context,but why not just focus on context,and forget hindsight analysis?,since it's impossible to make money from a trade you should have put on,but didn't.

After years of studying and trading markets,i am unfortunately,often reduced to stating the obvious.Going round in circles for 2 or 3 years is often the learning curve in this game,and that only gets you onto the field of play,you still have to play the game.

The only indicators (if i would call them that) i want to use are leading indicators.

If you want to see how many times a hammer fails drill down to low time frame charts.In other words a daily hammer on big volume could mean reversal,but what it really means is resting orders.Somebody big bought there (or maybe covered shorts) because that was the price they were willing to trade at.That is what i'm looking for,a price level i want to trade.How the price is represented on a chart can often be a sideshow..mesmerising for some.

Still,you can always stare at charts for a few thousand hours "until you get it" as the advice often goes.

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"Candlestick Charting Explained" by Gregory Morris has a section where he discloses his research on the subject....in my opinion its useless but there you go...

 

My question is why don't you do your own research so that the result refects your target market and most recent data?

 

How do you know I haven't?

 

I don't see the problem in asking for references, the poster said he'd seen some research about these patterns. I'd like to look at it too if that's all right by you?

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... At the bottom, we see a hammer, then a reversal on the 5-minute chart into a significant and profitable uptrend. My question is this: We all know the pattern works in the right situation, but why?....

 

As we know we can't use the same indicator (or variables) for different instruments, markets because they usually show different behavior. I use candlesticks because I think it summarizes the fight between the buyers and sellers. However I don't think 5-min chart is enough for this purpose. Candlestick formations can tell you what will come next but where they occur is important as well...

 

 

There is some great research out there that most candlestick patterns only work around 30% of the time....

There are lots of patterns and thousands of instruments. Besides some formations work better than others. Of course the time frame used in those researches would affect the results as well.

 

FYI for anyone interested

http://thepatternsite.com/CandleEntry.html

 

he will likely have some info

 

I was going to link the same site :)

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Personally, I think candlestick patterns and formations are junk science, or voodoo theory... whatever!

 

Now now everyone, I know most of you probably use candles, so don't beat me up. When I started trading, there were no candles, I learned on bar charts.

 

Even today, if I had to start over, I would choose bar charts. I can read a bar easier than a candle, and with candles, they take up too much real estate screen space. I prefer to see much broader price history to gain a "feel" for the current trading environment. With candles, I just can't feel it.

 

My typical chart attached.

eurusd-4h.thumb.png.69bfce29cb70ea7c12bacc00773f34d4.png

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I'm a fairly new trader working with the wonderful crew at Bulls on Wall Street

 

Hmm, first post on this forum and you're plugging a vendor. But I digress.

 

What is it about the shape of the hammer candlestick that signifies that selling has reached its end and buyers are now pouring in?

 

That's just it -- it doesn't signify that at all. It only tells you that within a predefined time frame (say, from 10:00 to 10:15), that the market traded down, and then at 10:15 it is basically trading at the same price it was at 10:00. Now, you may attach some interpretation to it, that selling has reached its end, or that buying is pouring in, but that of course does not make it so. I will plug my thread I started called "The Close of a Bar is Meaningless" -- search TL for it if you'd like, where members discuss items related to opening and closing prices of intraday bars, and this certainly affects how you view your candlesticks.

 

I'm just trying to understand more of the theory behind why these patterns work, and I think it is a good thing to understand rather than just blindly stabbing at a pattern (even if you're considering the other elements) because someone else told you it works.

 

This is a very good attitude to have -- question everything you hear, especially from someone selling something.

 

Also, is it possible that part of the reason these patterns work so consistently is that there are so many people that just blindly buy that idea, making it a self-fulfilling prophecy?

 

I think so, absolutely.

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How do you know I haven't?

 

I don't see the problem in asking for references, the poster said he'd seen some research about these patterns. I'd like to look at it too if that's all right by you?

 

The usual response is "yes I've done that"....

 

The defensive stance "how do you know....tells me what I wanted to know..thanks

 

and good luck

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The usual response is "yes I've done that"....

 

The defensive stance "how do you know....tells me what I wanted to know..thanks

 

and good luck

 

... lol wow how anal weird are you? .....the 'usual' response?

 

Sorry have I stuck a candlestick somewhere it won't shine?

 

I think what you need to know is that you're a presumptuous twit, good luck with that.

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I think the value in candlesticks comes from turning the data into a visual representation of traders sentiment which you can then assess at a glance. One thing to try are Heikin Ashi candlestick charts. With these charts you aren't concerned with the pattern of each candle, rather the direction of the trend because Heikin Ashi take into account the prior days bar with each new candle's open starting from the midpoint of the prior candle. Check it out, see if you like it.

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Holy cow, guys! I must say this is probably one of the most defensive forums I've ever posted on, and I post on a LOT of forums in all different subjects! After the first reply I actually wrote it off and just decided not to bother responding because I got slammed so quickly for posting a link to an external site, but after coming back and seeing two pages of people misinterpreting what I said I think I need to reply.

 

First of all, regarding Bulls on Wall Street I wasn't trying to plug them. I only mentioned the name because I have been following Kunal and some of the other members there on Twitter for months, tracking their progress, and they are great traders. Also I wanted to give people an idea of the type of trading I was doing and I thought providing a link to the site so you could check it out might give you a little more info on my style/background/habits. I have no connection with them and couldn't care less whether anyone here tries their services, it was just a friendly suggestion...lol

 

Whew, now that that's out of the way, let's get back to the original topic. I wasn't trying to turn this into a debate about whether candlestick indicators work or how often they work of whether candlesticks or bars or lines are better. What I wanted to understand is the THEORY.

 

hindsight......there is nothing about the shape of the hammer that signifies selling has reached the end.

its only a visual representation of what has happened.

 

But don't you think that the pattern indicates something? For example at the bottom of a 4-5 day downtrend on a daily chart, if a green hammer forms, and the next day price gaps up and closes positive for the day, does that not signify that sellers have become outnumbered by buyers (that's why the price was pushed back up from the low the previous day and closed closed above the open, forming the hammer)? Of course it doesn't GUARANTEE reversal of the trend, but isn't it a good indication that the ratio of buyers to sellers has changed, and that we might want to start watching a 30min or 15 min chart for breakout opportunities?

 

There is some great research out there that most candlestick patterns only work around 30% of the time. As SIUYA mentioned we can find the patterns in hindsight, but have you ever tried to trade based on the patterns?

 

Yes, I just did yesterday actually, I'll show you at the bottom of this response.

 

I would argue that the patterns do not work consistently enough to generate overall profitable trades. Just remember that you can find a chart to prove any theory once, but can it be traded in foresight not only in hindsight. Just remember that when these "Guru's" write their books and publish their articles they only need one chart that looks good to prove their point, what about the other 500 times that it does not work?

 

Just some food for thought.

I'd agree that you cannot ONLY use these patterns, you need to combine them with many other aspects including what the market sentiment is, support and resistance, moving averages, news, political turmoil, earnings history, etc. All I'm looking for is information on why they work when they do. I don't buy that it is completely by chance that these things work, even if it's only 30% of the time. There has to be some underlying reason.

 

"Candlestick Charting Explained" by Gregory Morris has a section where he discloses his research on the subject....in my opinion its useless but there you go...

 

My question is why don't you do your own research so that the result refects your target market and most recent data?

 

Thanks for the reference even if it wasn't for me. I'll check that book out. You can never have too much information (as long as you know how to manage it all and weed out the useless stuff, lol)

 

You can talk about putting your candlestick in context,but why not just focus on context,and forget hindsight analysis?

 

Because I believe that hindsight analysis on the right timeframe proves that a certain type of behavior has occurred and can potentially give an indication of what will happen in the future based on that behavioral change.

 

The only indicators (if i would call them that) i want to use are leading indicators.

Such as?

 

 

If you want to see how many times a hammer fails drill down to low time frame charts.In other words a daily hammer on big volume could mean reversal,but what it really means is resting orders.Somebody big bought there (or maybe covered shorts) because that was the price they were willing to trade at.That is what i'm looking for,a price level i want to trade.How the price is represented on a chart can often be a sideshow..mesmerising for some.

Still,you can always stare at charts for a few thousand hours "until you get it" as the advice often goes.

You're right, I've seen it. Of course you will see all kinds of crazy patterns on 1min, 2 min and 5 min charts and they're usually meaningless, but it doesn't mean that the information provided by the patterns over a larger timescale isn't useful. I'll provide an example at the bottom.

 

As we know we can't use the same indicator (or variables) for different instruments, markets because they usually show different behavior. I use candlesticks because I think it summarizes the fight between the buyers and sellers. However I don't think 5-min chart is enough for this purpose. Candlestick formations can tell you what will come next but where they occur is important as well...
Yes! Thank you, this is the kind of answer I was looking for. That was one of the reason I suspect that they work (sometimes): that they signify what is going on between the buyers and sellers. In the example of a hammer, it seems to indicate that the bears tried to push the price down further, but weren't able to keep it there because there were too many buyers propping the price back up. That, I think, is what forms the hammer which is why it would be important as an indicator on a daily or weekly chart, and could signify it might be time to start looking for intraday setups to enter into a position.

 

Personally, I think candlestick patterns and formations are junk science, or voodoo theory... whatever!

 

Now now everyone, I know most of you probably use candles, so don't beat me up. When I started trading, there were no candles, I learned on bar charts.

 

Even today, if I had to start over, I would choose bar charts. I can read a bar easier than a candle, and with candles, they take up too much real estate screen space. I prefer to see much broader price history to gain a "feel" for the current trading environment. With candles, I just can't feel it.

 

My typical chart attached.

 

I think that's just personal preference. I personally like candles better because the bars seem so convoluted and provide the exact same information. I find candlesticks easier to read. Besides after all, if you drew a rectangle connecting the opening and closing ticks of a bar and filled it in, you'd have a candle...:)

 

Hmm, first post on this forum and you're plugging a vendor. But I digress.
Sorry, there will be no more of that. Already explained at the top.

 

 

 

That's just it -- it doesn't signify that at all. It only tells you that within a predefined time frame (say, from 10:00 to 10:15), that the market traded down, and then at 10:15 it is basically trading at the same price it was at 10:00. Now, you may attach some interpretation to it, that selling has reached its end, or that buying is pouring in, but that of course does not make it so. I will plug my thread I started called "The Close of a Bar is Meaningless" -- search TL for it if you'd like, where members discuss items related to opening and closing prices of intraday bars, and this certainly affects how you view your candlesticks.
See, I disagree. I think it shows you exactly that. That there was a specific relationship between the number of buyers and sellers during that particular time period and that's the reason the candle formed in the way it did. Interesting you also agreed about the self-fulfilling prophecy bit. I'm sure a lot of technical analysis is really just a self-fulfilling prophecy because there are so many technical analysts.

 

I think the value in candlesticks comes from turning the data into a visual representation of traders sentiment which you can then assess at a glance. One thing to try are Heikin Ashi candlestick charts. With these charts you aren't concerned with the pattern of each candle, rather the direction of the trend because Heikin Ashi take into account the prior days bar with each new candle's open starting from the midpoint of the prior candle. Check it out, see if you like it.
Another point for the "it represents the relationship between buyers and sellers" team I guess. Thanks for your response and that suggestion. I will check out Heikin Ashi candlestick charts!

 

---------------------

 

Ok now after a long post, here's an example of me using a hammer:

 

This is MHR. I noticed that on 3/7 the chart had formed a hammer on reduced volume from the days before (circled in yellow). That triggered me to watch for a breakout spot on 3/8 if the price started rising. Sure enough on 3/8 the price opened higher and so I went to a 5min chart and watched for breakout opportunities. I actually attempted to enter this trade at $6.35 because that was the break of 3/6's low, but I couldn't get filled there. I waited for the chart to stabilize again and then entered just before 1pm at the breakout of the $6.43 level. I sold some of my position this morning for a small gain at $6.73 and am still holding the rest. So I guess all I'm saying is it seemed to work this time, and I don't buy that it was just due to chance. I have done this many times in the past with this pattern and am almost always successful. BTW when I said I am a fairly new trader I meant a fairly new daytrader. I have been swingtrading for years. :) Anyway, here are the charts (as attachments so they're not gigantic in the post), sorry for the looooooooooooong post!

5aa710d8261a3_Picture7.thumb.png.d2c7d7ee524422d5f29dcf900333b88f.png

5aa710d8319ba_Picture8.thumb.png.d9df3abd65590e3306e0cee0108a985d.png

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This is MHR. I noticed that on 3/7 the chart had formed a hammer on reduced volume

 

You have the wrong volume circled. The hammer was on increased volume (one to the left of what you circled), much more bullish. The last candle on your chart is hard to see but the volumes are even color coded--goes to show even a mistake can lead to good results! :D

 

I do not view intraday candle patterns as significant; however, on the DAILY time frame I think what you have given an example of here is significant. Again, I see the structure of a day's OHLC as more meaningful than that of intraday, for reasons I have explained elsewhere. Nice job on the trade.

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I do not view intraday candle patterns as significant;

 

I agree but let us say they are much more insignificant than the already insignificant ones found in daily data.

 

I think what those patterns mean depends on context. Theat can be very subjective. Also as mentioned in another thread candle formations are a small subset of price pattern formations. If you are going to use such methods better to use the expanded set. In this blog you will find many examples of such patterns. The author shows how slight variations in the pattern description/formulation produce very different results. For the 4 candles in SPY he gets 12 variants. As you see there are many stories told at once, not only one.

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Piston Doctor - no problems with the reference to other vendors.....but on of the nice things about TL is the vigilance attached to some spamming references - especially in first posts thats all.

 

Regards candles - they represent nothing more than what has happened. If you assign more than that then you will unfortunately create issues. As others have mentioned the context is more important....and as food for though.....why have the MAs on the chart if they do have significance.

Plus, how many other candle patterns dont work without the context.....ie; its the underlying movement that they represent as opposed to the candle causing the underlying movement -( I dont believe too much in the self fullfilling claims in liquid markets.)

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...So I guess all I'm saying is it seemed to work this time, and I don't buy that it was just due to chance. I have done this many times in the past with this pattern and am almost always successful...

 

It seems like you've said that you've backtested your "hammer patterns" and when you've applied such in real-trading that you're consistently profitable via your "hammer patterns" via your statement that they are "almost always successful".

 

My question to you is via the above observation, why do you care about the theory of hammer patterns because it would obviously seem to me that someone that is consistently profitable while using a trade method would already know the theory behind the pattern...sometimes refer to as the psychology of the pattern or the supply/demand theory of the pattern.

 

By the way, I'm not bashing "hammer patterns"...I too use them consistently profitable but I don't use them alone. Thus, the "market context" in which I apply the pattern is in my opinion more important than the trade signal itself. Simply, the "market context" tells you the direction of the price action and gives you that critical understanding of the price action whereas the trade signal (e.g. hammer pattern) gives the signal to enter the direction of the price action.

 

Also, one of your charts does not represent a "hammer pattern" (circled in yellow) @ http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/attachments/104/27817d1331257230-underlying-theory-behind-candlestick-charting-picture-7.png

 

Regardless to your incorrect identification of hammer patterns, it would then seem that you have a good understanding market context and/or not trading hammer patterns by themselves to be consistently profitable even while incorrectly identifying candlestick patterns.

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wrbtrader, I guess if you want to be nitpicky it's more of a morning star (even though they are both bullish and represent mostly the same market sentiment), To be fair, you can do a Google Image search for "morning star candlestick" or "hammer candlestick" or any other pattern and find 100 different interpretations of what they should look like, but I digress. What's important IMO is that the person using them understands what they represent. Anyway, I suppose joshdance is right on the volume issue...my bad :-P. It was late at night and at the end of a very long post when I circled that. Regardless of all that, it seems I've got my answer to the original question.

 

I was just asking in general why people think candlestick patterns work (when they do). I think you're all right that, in general, the reason they are somewhat reliable is that they prove the psychology of the market is changing in some way. However, maybe the reason they are unreliable as some of you have said is that they are not used correctly by many of the people who use them. Or maybe they just simply are not reliable indicators.

 

Personally I don't buy into them too much, I tend to trade more support/resistance breakouts and press releases/earnings, but I do find them useful when looking for the end of a trend for swing trades. For daytrading, I hardly touch candlestick patterns and rely almost entirely on support, resistance and volume as well as matching breakouts on multiple timeframes. A couple more examples of swings I've traded recently are CIEN (short on 2/24 after a shooting star) and SZYM on 3/7 after a hammer on 3/5 and then a might tighter trading range on 3/6 and 3/7 (you can check out the charts on any charting site :))

 

Thanks for the link to priceactionlab.com. I checked it out and yeah, multiple candle patterns can definitely be more telling than a single candle. When I trade a hammer or a doji or anything at the top of bottom of a trend, I ALWAYS wait another candle or two before entering a trade because I don't believe that a single candle can tell you anything without being put into the context of what's around it!

 

For what it's worth, I sold the rest of my MHR on Friday at $6.92 for a 7.6% gain and may be buying back in on Monday if it breaks the 20dma and can built support there! :-P

 

Thanks for your responses everyone.

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Bars in combination. Patterns that repeat. Order flow. These are the essence of candle charting. I used them for years in combination with observed strong uptrends or downtrends getting in and out on reversals. Sometimes they work, sometimes not. Double and triple tops they identify great. Double bottoms also, but triple bottoms not so much. I currently have taken to combining candle patterns with cumulative order flow and the results have been excellent. I would say that the candle patterns represent order flow/fill patterns and that is the theory behind them. When you see cumulative order flow along side a candle pattern you don't question the relevance anymore. They are tradable and for my trading, very relevant

 

Cheers.

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    • Date : 2nd June 2020. FX Update – June 2 – Weaker USD. Trading Leveraged Products is risky AUDUSD, H1 The Dollar has remained soft, with risk sentiment in global markets holding up, albeit with a weakening grip. Wall Street finished with modest gains yesterday, while the USA500 is moderately in the negative, and while Asian and European markets have gained, they are up by only a limited extent. US President Trump is weighing military action and imposing curfews in cities across the country in an effort to quell rioting, while there are glass-half-full market narratives arguing that, with many assets having recouped to pre-pandemic levels, there may be less upside potential with most economies across the world not expected to fully recover until such time as there is a vaccine or cure for the coronavirus. Despite the flagging risk-on tone, the narrow trade-weighted USDIndex edged out a new low, at 97.74, which is the lowest level seen since March 16th. EURUSD has remained buoyant, and has breached yesterday’s 11-week high at 1.1155, to trade to 1.1178. USDJPY remained in a narrow range in the mid-to-upper reaches of the 107.00s, which has been the case for about two weeks now. Sterling has outperformed on Brexit-related news, with the London Times reporting that the UK government is expected to signal a compromise on fisheries and “level playing field” trade rules if the EU backs off from its “maximalist” demands on regulatory alignment and fishing access, according to unnamed sources. Cable printed a one-month peak at 1.2555, while EURGBP fell to an 18-day low at 0.8865. AUDUSD edged out a fresh four-month high, at 0.6844. The RBA did the expected and left monetary policy unchanged at its June review today, maintaining the cash rate at 0.25%, while signalling that “the accommodative approach will be maintained as long as it is required.” USDCAD printed a fresh trend low at 1.3507, the lowest seen since March 9th. The Canadian Dollar, like other oil-correlating currencies, remains supported by the ongoing buoyancy in oil prices, ahead of the rescheduled OPEC+ meeting this week, while USOil trades at $36.00 currently. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Reply to this topic... Skim these - if you can https://www.oftwominds.com/blogmay20/globalization-dead5-20.html https://www.oftwominds.com/blogmay20/cycles5-20.html https://www.oftwominds.com/blogmay20/opt-out5-20.html https://www.oftwominds.com/blogmay20/tinas-orgy5-20.html https://www.oftwominds.com/blogmay20/stocks-fragility5-20.html and if you’re still strong and not  burnt out https://www.oftwominds.com/blogmay20/demand5-20.html https://www.oftwominds.com/blogmay20/social-media-plantation5-20.html
    • Open a new NinjaTrader Brokerage account by June 30th and SAVE on a Lifetime license with a discounted price of only $999! Along with access to the most powerful version of NinjaTrader, you will save even more with deep discount commissions at $.09 per Micro futures contract & only $50 margins. Your Lifetime license includes ALL of NinjaTrader’s premium features: Award-winning order entry including Chart Trader & OCO orders Order Flow + tool set featuring the Volume Profile Indicator – NinjaTrader’s most powerful indicator to date ATM Strategies, advanced Alerting system, auto-close positions for additional risk management & more PLUS all future NinjaTrader platform enhancements are included at no additional charge – for life! Simply fund your new account with the minimum of $400 by June 30th to lock in your savings. Questions? Contact us at 312.262.1289 or brokeragesales@ninjatrader.com. Platform License Discount Requirements: Account must be opened & funded in June 2020 with $400 minimum Discount is applicable to software purchase only 2nd accounts for current NinjaTrader Brokerage account owners are not eligible for platform discounts Futures and Forex trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones financial security or life style. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. View Full Risk Disclosure.
    • Date : 01st June 2020. Events to Look Out for This Week.Geopolitics are back in the picture giving the markets pause and adding another layer of uncertainty to a shaky global outlook. However other than US-China tension, next week the global data dockets are heavy and results are likely to underscore the cratering in global economies this quarter. The calendar includes the US Jobs Report and Monetary policy meeting from RBA, BOC and ECB.Monday – 01 June 2020 Caixin Manufacturing PMI (CNY, GMT 01:45) – The Caixin manufacturing PMI is expected to slightly improve to 49.6 from 49.4 in May. ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM index is expected to slip to 40.0 in May from 41.5 in April, compared to a recession-low of 34.5 in December of 2008. Tuesday – 02 June 2020   Interest Rate Decision & Statement (RBA, GMT 04:30) – The RBA meet and are unlikely to move rates below historic lows at 0.25%, as RBA Gov. Lowe is his recent statement repeated that negative interest rates extraordinarily unlikely. RBA will maintain its expansionary monetary policies until progress is made towards full employment and we are confident on inflation . Wednesday – 03 June 2020   Gross Domestic Product (AUD, GMT 01:30) – GDP is the economy’s most important figure. Q1’s GDP is expected to slow down at 0.3% q/q and 1.9% y/y. Unemployment data (EUR, GMT 07:55-09:00) – The German unemployment rate in May is expected to have increased to 6.2% from 5.8%, while unemployment change is expected to have declined to 194K from April’s 373K. Meanwhile, Eurozone’s April unemployment rate should rise to 7.7% from 7.4% last month. ADP Employment Change (USD, GMT 12:15) – Lasts month, ADP report revealed a -20,236k April drop that undershot the -19,520k private payroll decline by -716k. For May a -9,000k drop is seen, since nearly all measures of activity rose in May from a trough. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM-NMI index is expected to rise to 46.0 from 41.8 in April. Most producer sentiment reports should show May rebounds after huge April declines due to mandatory closures, on top of the demand hit initially associated with the pandemic, and the oil price plunge with the OPEC price war, as re-openings are underway in most states. The April drop in the ISM survey was much smaller than the declines seen in other measures, however, and this is why we expect a further drop in May for that measure. Interest Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Statement (CAD, GMT 14:00) – On April 15, the Bank held rates steady at 0.25%, matching widespread expectations. In the next policy statement, the BoC is expected to leave rates unchanged, the Bank of Canada Governor Poloz said is his last interview that negative rates are needed only in extreme conditions. Thursday – 04 June 2020   Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference (EUR, GMT 11:45 & 12:30) – Given that Lagarde buried any hope of a “mild” recession, the stage seems set for an extension of the PEPP program in size and duration at next week’s council meeting with an end date next year giving the economy more time to recover and EU aid programs to come into effect. Given that the ECB is no longer putting much hope in a quick recovery it is already clear that with the current time frame until the end of December that would risk a sharp widening of spreads in the second half of the year, when there is also the risk of a second wave of Covid-19 infections. Jobless Claims (USD, GMT 12:30)– US initial jobless claims contracted last week by -323k to 2,123k in the week ended May 23 after tumbling -241k to 2,446k previously. Claims have been declining since surging to 6,867k in the March 27 week. Friday – 05 June 2020   Event of the Week – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD, GMT 12:30) – A -2,200k May nonfarm payroll drop is anticipated, following a -20,527 April collapse, and a -701k drop in March. The jobless rate should rise to 17.5% from 14.7% from April, versus 4.4% in March. Nearly all measures of activity rose in May from a trough just after the April BLS survey week, but the initial and continuing claims data suggest a weaker labor market in mid-May than mid-April. Average hourly earnings are assumed to fall -1.0% with a partial unwind of the April distortion from layoffs being concentrated in low-wage categories. This would translate to a drop in the y/y gain to 6.6% from 7.9%. Labour Market Data (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Canada employment plunged -1993.8k in April, nearly doubling the -1010.7k tumble in March to leave a massive and rapid reversal in the labour market as firms cut jobs as most of the economy ceased to function amid the stay at home orders the began around the middle of March. For May employment should revealed a 4,000k drop in jobs, doubling again last months number. B]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.[/B]Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Moar questions how many corps in the SP500, NQ100, etc indexes are "rolling in revenue"?  ie they have more revenue than they did 6 months ago ??  thx.  just askin'       Weekend reading https://consentfactory.org/2020/05/20/brave-new-normal-part-2/   https://www.oftwominds.com/blogmay20/demand5-20.html
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