Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

drsushi

Trading with PA "No Indicators"

Recommended Posts

I joined a google group of traders that trades with price action alone. They use support and resistance areas from higher time frames and use multiple time frames down to 5, 8 or 16 tic charts for entry. The theory is based on six possible scenarios. A double top or lower high, these are both high failures, a double bottom or higher low, these are both low failures and higher highs and lower lows. If the low or high failure takes place at significant enough support or resistance there may be a trade to be had. I've attached (hopfully) 3 charts of 777 tic, 110 tic and 16 tic that is annotated. This is not something I put together. One of the traders in the group did to describe the method they trade by. I posted it for the interest of others and I'm also curious of the opinons of the followers of TL. I for one have struggled a great deal with the right indicator, TS add-on, timeframe blah blah blah and to tell you the truth this makes very good sense to me and If I use it with pivots and VAL POC and VAH for S/R I'm hoping it will have some merit. I'm fairly new to trading, so I'm hoping others with more experience will give thier thoughts.

 

David

5aa70e3eac02f_chart1.thumb.JPG.b68a4b502ffd4b19fe28401b71143b58.JPG

chart2.thumb.JPG.b0374afbded0a8a554e0d25f39295d5a.JPG

chart3.thumb.JPG.4458e25e24da3449933435511915aab9.JPG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sounds very interesting. I think this method, or price action trading, in general is the way to go.

 

PP has shown a similar idea with 2 timeframes. 1 has various important "pivot" or "Key" levels and the other is used to make trades off of based on price/volume action at these levels.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I use mainly price action with S/R areas and chart patterns, sometimes with volume and Fibonacci to trade. It's the right way to learn to trade without too many indicators. Price action tells alot more than indicators since they are derived from price. You're on the right track but that's just me. I'm sure others have their own opinions on this.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I joined a google group of traders that trades with price action alone. They use support and resistance areas from higher time frames and use multiple time frames down to 5, 8 or 16 tic charts for entry. The theory is based on six possible scenarios. A double top or lower high, these are both high failures, a double bottom or higher low, these are both low failures and higher highs and lower lows. If the low or high failure takes place at significant enough support or resistance there may be a trade to be had. I've attached (hopfully) 3 charts of 777 tic, 110 tic and 16 tic that is annotated. This is not something I put together. One of the traders in the group did to describe the method they trade by. I posted it for the interest of others and I'm also curious of the opinons of the followers of TL. I for one have struggled a great deal with the right indicator, TS add-on, timeframe blah blah blah and to tell you the truth this makes very good sense to me and If I use it with pivots and VAL POC and VAH for S/R I'm hoping it will have some merit. I'm fairly new to trading, so I'm hoping others with more experience will give thier thoughts.

 

David

 

David,

Nice examples, thanks for sharing.

 

My 2 cents on this type of trading:

 

1) It can work and be very profitable.

2) It takes TIME to get it down however.

3) Drawing those S/R lines in REAL TIME can be challenging.

4) Exits are key to whether you have profitable or failing trades.

 

The biggest issue is where to exit on these type of trades. Do you simply wait for a reversal or MIT an order at/near the next level or take a fixed profit? Depending on what you choose, that can be the difference between a profitable trade and a loser.

 

You also posted this in the candlestick corner, so I would mention that using your S/R lines in conjunction with candlestick patterns that confirm an area is being defended is a great combination!

 

Good luck and keep the thread going!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Brownsfan,

 

I agree with everything you said. My thought is to use floor pivots (daily, weely, monthy, yearly) and MP value areas and POC's as support and resistance levels and see how pirce action behaves around those areas. Also, my assumption is that if I stay with the trend on a higher time frame that will reduce risk. I hope that is an accurate statement. Also, my intension would be to use specifc targets for profit such as 4 tics, 6 tics and then moving my stop to B/E or B/E +1tic and letting my other 1/3 of the position run, but manage the trade and take profit at s/r. The last 1/3 should be a free trade at that point based on profit of the first 2/3 and moving the stop. This would be on the ES. I'm not looking to make a fortune in a day. If I can do what I just described on a consistent basis I would be very satisfied. Am I out of my mind or is it reasonable?

 

David

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Brownsfan,

 

I agree with everything you said. My thought is to use floor pivots (daily, weely, monthy, yearly) and MP value areas and POC's as support and resistance levels and see how pirce action behaves around those areas. Also, my assumption is that if I stay with the trend on a higher time frame that will reduce risk. I hope that is an accurate statement. Also, my intension would be to use specifc targets for profit such as 4 tics, 6 tics and then moving my stop to B/E or B/E +1tic and letting my other 1/3 of the position run, but manage the trade and take profit at s/r. The last 1/3 should be a free trade at that point based on profit of the first 2/3 and moving the stop. This would be on the ES. I'm not looking to make a fortune in a day. If I can do what I just described on a consistent basis I would be very satisfied. Am I out of my mind or is it reasonable?

 

David

 

Can it be done? Of course!

 

Will it be easy? Of course NOT.

 

The premise sounds good now it's a matter of testing in real-time and see how it goes. Feel free to start a new thread or continue in this one about what/how you are using your ideas.

 

Good luck!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
David,

.......

3) Drawing those S/R lines in REAL TIME can be challenging.

............

 

That is why it might make more sense to use static levels that are plotted before the day starts.

 

I have not read the book so I can't recommend it, but there is a book specifically about this type of method called "Price Action Trading".

 

Some levels to think about could be:

 

1. MP levels (POC, VAH,VAL)

2. Yesterday's High (YH)

3. Yesterday's Low (YL)

4. Day Before Yesterday's High (DBYH)

5. Day Before Yesterday's Low (DBYL)

6. Key numbers (aka Floor pivots)

7. Actual pivot levels-places where the market did react/retrace/stall.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And of course the next question is - what levels do you use and why? Use them all and your chart will look like a mess of horizontal lines everywhere. If you put enough lines on your chart, some will look like they nailed the HOD or LOD. Some will just get in your way.

 

And the follow up question: are static, fixed lines that are based on YESTERDAY'S price action good for determining TODAY'S price action? Food for thought.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree with the point that drawing the s/r lines can be a challenge. I believe the folks in the group do as you stated ant drawing them in advance such as the night before. Some S/R levels can be intraday levels as well. I like the concept of using floor pivots and the MP levels and I think that YH and YL are valid as well. One doesn't have to have every line on a chart. Actually, what I do in TS is have multiple workspaces. One workspace may be my Market profile workspace with POC;s and VAH and VAL. I then have a seperate workspace for pivots. It's farly easy to switch tabs. If price starts to approach a level one can go to a lower time frame chart with no lines, or draw in one horizontal line where price is approaching and see how it starts to react. I use pivots and MP by Suri Dudella and his stuff can be broadcast to as many charts as you want. So if I have a daily chart as a source chart of pivots, for example, I can braodcast the pivots to any chart of any other timeframe. I don't have to draw anything. This is not a pitch for his stuff it just works for me.

 

David

That is why it might make more sense to use static levels that are plotted before the day starts.

 

I have not read the book so I can't recommend it, but there is a book specifically about this type of method called "Price Action Trading".

 

Some levels to think about could be:

 

1. MP levels (POC, VAH,VAL)

2. Yesterday's High (YH)

3. Yesterday's Low (YL)

4. Day Before Yesterday's High (DBYH)

5. Day Before Yesterday's Low (DBYL)

6. Key numbers (aka Floor pivots)

7. Actual pivot levels-places where the market did react/retrace/stall.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Also, my intension would be to use specifc targets for profit such as 4 tics, 6 tics and then moving my stop to B/E or B/E +1tic and letting my other 1/3 of the position run, but manage the trade and take profit at s/r. The last 1/3 should be a free trade at that point based on profit of the first 2/3 and moving the stop. This would be on the ES. I'm not looking to make a fortune in a day. If I can do what I just described on a consistent basis I would be very satisfied. Am I out of my mind or is it reasonable?

 

David

 

This won't fly. The market does what it does and won't move to your rhythm at 4 or 6 ticks and expecting it not hit your breakeven. This is what price action is all about: reading what the price tells you where the nearest low is and nearest high and respect these level. You should be putting your stops above or below and not a fixed tick number then use S/R as your target and/or stop loss levels. The 2 go hand in hand S/R and price action.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here is a chart of a possible trade. I did not take this trade and at the same time of trying to avoid cherry picking a perfect example, I also wanted to show and example that would explain the concept. I forgot to draw in the possible stop, but it could be just below the HL on the 16tic below entry or just at or just below the pivot if entering sooner.

 

The 4 to 6 tics I think is an acceptable profit target. I'm not sure if i'm understanding your comment. If 4 tics is not an acceptable profit target then it wouldn't be worth even trading. The idea is to have say 3 contracts and with a stop just below or above the previous low or high. The stop could be 1-2 points. If I hit my first target of 4 tics moving the stop to BE-2tics seems reasonable. Could go to BE or BE +1. Or, if second target is hit then move the stop to BE. From what I have learned, and I will say maybe the most valuable thing I learned from TTM is reduce risk. The fast we can get the stop to BE, of course with out getting stopped out too soon the better. In the attached example the trade played out in a positive way. The last third can be exited on some criteria or, manage it anyway you want moving the stop to preserve profit. I don't know the best way.

 

The Sanuk Group on Google talks about this method and many or most of the traders in that group trade with price action in this manner. They may use volume bars or minute charts, but many of them speak of this method. I am just presenting here, but it really hit home with me. Anyway, I've gone on long enough. Feel free to comment. One last thing. I do like to use the Volume Delta OSC that someone created on TL. It shows divergences very nicely and can give a heads up to a turn. Also, the way price action was explained to me is that its the buyers and sellers going at it and one of them will take control which in depicted in price. This makes sense to me.

 

David

5aa70e3f32d09_3TimeframePA.thumb.jpg.ac8adec53048c2350e60b4a3401fe8f3.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is an interesting topic. I hope this input is not too far removed from it...

 

I think if an indicator can show a certain aspect of price &/or volume &/or time behaviour that you believe is important then it should be used. If you can look at price &/or volume &/or time and trade/invest without the aid of any 'indicator' then that is right too. I actually believe that the better a trader gets the more likely it is she (or he) will use only price, volume and time. I suppose my point here is that there is no one right and wrong way.

 

I say all this because up until recently I have been a 'no indicator' believer (not because I am one of those good traders - far from it). But I have recognised I need to see a relationship between price and volume that my price and volume charts were not showing me clearly, and so now I use an indicator to help me see that relationship. I think the key to using an indicator is to fully understand what it is showing, fully understand the mathematics of its calculation (most indicators are simple enough for me to understand the maths...so anyone can!) and fully understand it limitations and constraints. I would also add that my use of the indicator does not extend to it being the buy/sell trigger - I would be interested if anyone does use an indicator in this way as I believe the entry and exit decisions comes from price alone.

 

 

 

Another point - what is an indicator?

I use the volume at ask minus the volume at bid on my charts - is this an indicator? I think of it as data generated by the market, it only becomes an indicator if I do something like apply a moving average to it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
And of course the next question is - what levels do you use and why? Use them all and your chart will look like a mess of horizontal lines everywhere. If you put enough lines on your chart, some will look like they nailed the HOD or LOD. Some will just get in your way.

 

Yup absolutely agree you can end up with lots of lines depending what you use. Just using highs and lows off an hourly can end up with lots. Picking the right lines can be a bit of an art. It's not hard exactly as with all things it needs experience (work) :) Looking for 'clusters' is not a bad idea, these form if a price has been tested a lot.

 

And the follow up question: are static, fixed lines that are based on YESTERDAY'S price action good for determining TODAY'S price action? Food for thought.

 

The answer to that is an un-qualified YES. Are they good for predicting todays action the answer would of course be NO. My favourite example the good old floor pivot, yesterdays H+L+C/3 is a simple but effective sentiment indicator. Price above bullish price below bearish. Simple.The 50% spot 'works' good too H+L/2. As does the PoC. etc. etc. No predictive value but gives a clear and un ambiguous indication of "where you are".

 

As an aside. In the S&P, 70% of days, price will come within 2 ticks of the floor pivot. Heres the interesting thing the stats are very similar on an hourly chart or a 30 minute chart (using the previous bars 'pivot') this suggests to me there is some inherent usefulness in the number rather than being self fulfilling because everyone is watching.

 

Anyway sorry for drifting off topic but you did ask the question. :)

 

Personally I think using PA (be it candles bars or maybe VSA) to determine what is happening in areas where things might happen (previous S/R, MP etc.) Is a fantastic way to trade.

 

Cheers.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Here is a chart of a possible trade. I did not take this trade and at the same time of trying to avoid cherry picking a perfect example, I also wanted to show and example that would explain the concept. I forgot to draw in the possible stop, but it could be just below the HL on the 16tic below entry or just at or just below the pivot if entering sooner.

 

The 4 to 6 tics I think is an acceptable profit target. I'm not sure if i'm understanding your comment. If 4 tics is not an acceptable profit target then it wouldn't be worth even trading. The idea is to have say 3 contracts and with a stop just below or above the previous low or high. The stop could be 1-2 points. If I hit my first target of 4 tics moving the stop to BE-2tics seems reasonable. Could go to BE or BE +1. Or, if second target is hit then move the stop to BE. From what I have learned, and I will say maybe the most valuable thing I learned from TTM is reduce risk. The fast we can get the stop to BE, of course with out getting stopped out too soon the better. In the attached example the trade played out in a positive way. The last third can be exited on some criteria or, manage it anyway you want moving the stop to preserve profit. I don't know the best way.

 

The Sanuk Group on Google talks about this method and many or most of the traders in that group trade with price action in this manner. They may use volume bars or minute charts, but many of them speak of this method. I am just presenting here, but it really hit home with me. Anyway, I've gone on long enough. Feel free to comment. One last thing. I do like to use the Volume Delta OSC that someone created on TL. It shows divergences very nicely and can give a heads up to a turn. Also, the way price action was explained to me is that its the buyers and sellers going at it and one of them will take control which in depicted in price. This makes sense to me.

 

David

 

My point was 1 pt (or 4 ticks) is acceptable, but moving to breakeven after such a small push forward is too close, and from my experience trading ES (and I tried scalping it and failed miserably at it) in the past, there will tendencies to hit breakeven alot. But others seem to do ok, go for it.

 

What I am saying is let the market dictate where the stop level is and not choosing to breakeven you determine; the area you choose to by a fixed amount will have a likelihood of get hit is high. If this is the case and you're scalping, you'll be paying lots of commissions and little profits. Just my opinion and experience.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As an aside. In the S&P, 70% of days, price will come within 2 ticks of the floor pivot. Heres the interesting thing the stats are very similar on an hourly chart or a 30 minute chart (using the previous bars 'pivot') this suggests to me there is some inherent usefulness in the number rather than being self fulfilling because everyone is watching.

 

Interesting BF - can you provide some info to substantiate this? You got my curiosity now.

 

Also, silly question - what exactly are you referring to as the 'floor pivot'. I think I know, but some clarification would be good so we are on the same page.

 

;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Interesting BF - can you provide some info to substantiate this? You got my curiosity now.

 

Also, silly question - what exactly are you referring to as the 'floor pivot'. I think I know, but some clarification would be good so we are on the same page.

 

;)

 

Hi Brown by floor pivot I mean yesterdays (H+L+C)/3.

 

Short answer is no I cant. Funny, it was exactly the same sequence that got me to check for myself. Basically someone said to me 70% of the time blah blah blah... I thought hmm thats intresting and went anyway thinking about how I could prove it for myself.

 

I got a few years H L C data into excel, put the calc into another cell then tested to see if H or L hit the calculated pivot. I guess theres an outside chance the spreadsheet is hidden away somewhere, I'll keep an eye open for it.

 

Cheers,

 

P.S. Sorry that this is still a bit off topic but couldn't resist this chart of todays ES showing price turn of the PP to the tick. Obviously this is partly self fulfilling but its kind of neat when its this clean. PP is horizontal red dashed line.

picture16.thumb.png.9a4f753e77b30080b08d837fc07b8a37.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hi Brown by floor pivot I mean yesterdays (H+L+C)/3.

 

Short answer is no I cant. Funny, it was exactly the same sequence that got me to check for myself. Basically someone said to me 70% of the time blah blah blah... I thought hmm thats intresting and went anyway thinking about how I could prove it for myself.

 

I got a few years H L C data into excel, put the calc into another cell then tested to see if H or L hit the calculated pivot. I guess theres an outside chance the spreadsheet is hidden away somewhere, I'll keep an eye open for it.

 

Cheers,

 

P.S. Sorry that this is still a bit off topic but couldn't resist this chart of todays ES showing price turn of the PP to the tick. Obviously this is partly self fulfilling but its kind of neat when its this clean. PP is horizontal red dashed line.

 

I appreciate it BF.

 

This should really belong in a new thread b/c it's a great tool to watch.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Go for it email! I've spent a couple of weeks going through the Sanuk material and even hung out in there room a bit. It seems like a valid information to me. Having said that I'm 'sold' on PA. It can be used to find areas to trade, it can be used to trigger entries, it can be used for stops and it can be used for targets. Pure and powerful.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I continually find myself using PA and basic S/R for my trading. I have an oscillator and $tick to kind of help eliminate otherwise bad trades. After the close I plot the open, low, and close for the next day and scalp around those areas using basic candlestick analysis. So far it's been profitable, and the more screen time I get the better I do. But it should be noted, I have no problems finding support and resistance areas in real time, I guess that just comes with the screen time.

 

It works very well during range bound movements, but during big trends it's easy to miss the major trend. I will try to take screen shots and possibly a video this week to show everyone how I do it and maybe others could see what I could improve on.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hello to everyone in this thread and thanks to drsushi for starting it.

 

drsushi ,you are very fortunate to have found that group, very neet. I am a big pivot point trader myself and would be paralyzed if I did not use them.

I see most guys here use the same method I trade with; floor traders pivots, YH, YL, UVA, LVA. A good understanding of chart patterns and candles are essential, especially at resistance or support.

Always on the lookout for triangles, AB=CD, Gartleys will give you a good edge.

 

I love this thread because it hits on most of the things I look at. Lately while I have been using the BID/Ask volume indicator on my charts (actually I would like if we could discuss this further). When approaching a key pivot, I notice many times that there may be a long bullish candle but the bid volume is twice as much as the ask, that is a good clue that we may be reversing.

 

Now the big thing the caught my attention in this thread was when drsushi explained his stops and profit taking. With the volatility we have been having lately I do not see how I could trade with less than a 3.5 point stop in the ES.

I enter my trades at either PV or VAH ot VAL, YH, YL or one of my De Mark projection points (tomorrows Projection, High of the day Low of the day) and want to ride a wave as much as possible so a one or two point profit is not my goal. You have to look at the big picture, if it fails at one of our points in the morning like, fills the gap and turns around or YH I want to ride that wave for at least six to ten points, maybe more, not two points, otherwise I am going to be in and out all day. I am not saying you cant do that just its not my style.

Another thing about stops as Torero mentioned you just can not pick a one or two point stops arbitrarily, you have to hide behind a wall or your going to get shot. What I mean is that the volatility and the way the market moves your stop will be toast if you do not place your stop below a pivot (and far away or they will hit it) or a MA, something. To make it float is nuts, unless your already in the money by six to ten points, thats different, but to do that at the start is going to get you stopped out allot, IMHO. Ok, I`m going to turn it over to you guys now.

 

Cheers to all,

email

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

email,

 

I may have been a little unclear in terms of the stop strategy. I agree that the volatility could kick one out a lot. I by no means am an expert and am still learning. Much of the info I was sharing I have learned from the google group. I think the intent of the strategy is to place a stop above a previous high or below a previous low depending on the direction of the trade, of course. In the group they discuss using 3 time frames. The longer time frame gives general trend and the lower timeframe give the trade setups and an even lower timeframe is used for entry. The main method discussed in the group is the use of the 777tic for trend, 110 tick for setup and 16 or 8 tic for entry. Higher timeframes such as a 60 minute or 240 minute etc are used as well. One thing that is emphasized a lot is that if you see a double top on the 110 tic and then a lower high on the 110 tic you that would indicate sellers taking control. Assuming the trend is down that day you could enter short with a stop above the previous high wich may be no more than 2 points. Please don't shoot the messanger. This is what is taught/shared in the group. As far as exits go I've read concepts of scaling out in thirds or quarters mainly from the Trade the Markets guys and the theory is that the sooner you can move your stop to break even or break even minus a tic or two the less risk you have. If you scale out in thirds at 4 tics for the first third, 6-8 tics for the second third and open target on the last third with a stop at break even after the second target, even if the last third scratches you have a profitable trade. That is the theory. Is it a good one? I don't know. I too would rather hold for 5, 6 or 10 points. I would love to hear about other exit strategies. One thing I was thinking of would be to take a 100% fib projection from the prior swing as a first target and/or a 127.2 extension as a target. I don't like the idea of limiting myself to a 1 point or 2 point target, but it does seem smart to scale out and limit the risk as quickly as possible. If you get a runner or even 6-10 points on your last third that is still pretty good, isn't it? Let me know.

 

If you want me to post a chart of example trades let me know.

 

David

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
And of course the next question is - what levels do you use and why? Use them all and your chart will look like a mess of horizontal lines everywhere. If you put enough lines on your chart, some will look like they nailed the HOD or LOD. Some will just get in your way.

 

And the follow up question: are static, fixed lines that are based on YESTERDAY'S price action good for determining TODAY'S price action? Food for thought.

 

Simply, Yes.

 

They are far better than mathematically derived numbers like "Floor Pivots". Key Numbers, aka floor pivots, derive their utility from two things: regression to the mean, and self fulfilling prophecy.

 

Market profile lines have as their basis the concept that because the market found support/resistance at this level today, all things being equal it should find the same there tomorrow. The market has memory. It knows when a price level is reached that found sellers/buyers the previous time the level was reached. If 510 on the emini, for example, brings in the bulls today as they see value, there is a good chance they will again see value at that level going forward.

 

I have been playing with this concept a bit after reading an article from Straightforex.com. Instead of using key numbers, they use what they call a "Market Map". The map consists of:

 

1. YH (Yesterday's High)

2. YL (Yesterday's Low)

3. DYH (Day before yesterday's High)

4. DYL (Day before Yesterday's Low)

5. PP (Pivot Point) (O+L+H)/3

 

The first 4 are already HUPs (Hold Up Prices) and may continue to be. One thing the map tells us is if price is above the PP the trend may be up. If Price is above either or both YH or DYH and above the PP the trend is up. The reverse would be true for a down trend.

 

After reading a couple of threads on this forum, I have become predisposed to the Pivot Range concept that Pivot profiler talked about. So I add the Range to the map, plus a couple more HUPs.:

 

1. YH

2. YL

3. DYH

4. DYL

5. PMH (Pre Market High= highest high made between 5pm close and 2am open NY time)

6. PML (Pre Market Low= lowest low made between 5pm close and 2am open NY time)

7. PP (H+L+(2*C))/4

8. PRH (Pivot Range High)

9. PRL (Pivot Range Low)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date : 2nd June 2020. FX Update – June 2 – Weaker USD. Trading Leveraged Products is risky AUDUSD, H1 The Dollar has remained soft, with risk sentiment in global markets holding up, albeit with a weakening grip. Wall Street finished with modest gains yesterday, while the USA500 is moderately in the negative, and while Asian and European markets have gained, they are up by only a limited extent. US President Trump is weighing military action and imposing curfews in cities across the country in an effort to quell rioting, while there are glass-half-full market narratives arguing that, with many assets having recouped to pre-pandemic levels, there may be less upside potential with most economies across the world not expected to fully recover until such time as there is a vaccine or cure for the coronavirus. Despite the flagging risk-on tone, the narrow trade-weighted USDIndex edged out a new low, at 97.74, which is the lowest level seen since March 16th. EURUSD has remained buoyant, and has breached yesterday’s 11-week high at 1.1155, to trade to 1.1178. USDJPY remained in a narrow range in the mid-to-upper reaches of the 107.00s, which has been the case for about two weeks now. Sterling has outperformed on Brexit-related news, with the London Times reporting that the UK government is expected to signal a compromise on fisheries and “level playing field” trade rules if the EU backs off from its “maximalist” demands on regulatory alignment and fishing access, according to unnamed sources. Cable printed a one-month peak at 1.2555, while EURGBP fell to an 18-day low at 0.8865. AUDUSD edged out a fresh four-month high, at 0.6844. The RBA did the expected and left monetary policy unchanged at its June review today, maintaining the cash rate at 0.25%, while signalling that “the accommodative approach will be maintained as long as it is required.” USDCAD printed a fresh trend low at 1.3507, the lowest seen since March 9th. The Canadian Dollar, like other oil-correlating currencies, remains supported by the ongoing buoyancy in oil prices, ahead of the rescheduled OPEC+ meeting this week, while USOil trades at $36.00 currently. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Reply to this topic... Skim these - if you can https://www.oftwominds.com/blogmay20/globalization-dead5-20.html https://www.oftwominds.com/blogmay20/cycles5-20.html https://www.oftwominds.com/blogmay20/opt-out5-20.html https://www.oftwominds.com/blogmay20/tinas-orgy5-20.html https://www.oftwominds.com/blogmay20/stocks-fragility5-20.html and if you’re still strong and not  burnt out https://www.oftwominds.com/blogmay20/demand5-20.html https://www.oftwominds.com/blogmay20/social-media-plantation5-20.html
    • Open a new NinjaTrader Brokerage account by June 30th and SAVE on a Lifetime license with a discounted price of only $999! Along with access to the most powerful version of NinjaTrader, you will save even more with deep discount commissions at $.09 per Micro futures contract & only $50 margins. Your Lifetime license includes ALL of NinjaTrader’s premium features: Award-winning order entry including Chart Trader & OCO orders Order Flow + tool set featuring the Volume Profile Indicator – NinjaTrader’s most powerful indicator to date ATM Strategies, advanced Alerting system, auto-close positions for additional risk management & more PLUS all future NinjaTrader platform enhancements are included at no additional charge – for life! Simply fund your new account with the minimum of $400 by June 30th to lock in your savings. Questions? Contact us at 312.262.1289 or brokeragesales@ninjatrader.com. Platform License Discount Requirements: Account must be opened & funded in June 2020 with $400 minimum Discount is applicable to software purchase only 2nd accounts for current NinjaTrader Brokerage account owners are not eligible for platform discounts Futures and Forex trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones financial security or life style. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. View Full Risk Disclosure.
    • Date : 01st June 2020. Events to Look Out for This Week.Geopolitics are back in the picture giving the markets pause and adding another layer of uncertainty to a shaky global outlook. However other than US-China tension, next week the global data dockets are heavy and results are likely to underscore the cratering in global economies this quarter. The calendar includes the US Jobs Report and Monetary policy meeting from RBA, BOC and ECB.Monday – 01 June 2020 Caixin Manufacturing PMI (CNY, GMT 01:45) – The Caixin manufacturing PMI is expected to slightly improve to 49.6 from 49.4 in May. ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM index is expected to slip to 40.0 in May from 41.5 in April, compared to a recession-low of 34.5 in December of 2008. Tuesday – 02 June 2020   Interest Rate Decision & Statement (RBA, GMT 04:30) – The RBA meet and are unlikely to move rates below historic lows at 0.25%, as RBA Gov. Lowe is his recent statement repeated that negative interest rates extraordinarily unlikely. RBA will maintain its expansionary monetary policies until progress is made towards full employment and we are confident on inflation . Wednesday – 03 June 2020   Gross Domestic Product (AUD, GMT 01:30) – GDP is the economy’s most important figure. Q1’s GDP is expected to slow down at 0.3% q/q and 1.9% y/y. Unemployment data (EUR, GMT 07:55-09:00) – The German unemployment rate in May is expected to have increased to 6.2% from 5.8%, while unemployment change is expected to have declined to 194K from April’s 373K. Meanwhile, Eurozone’s April unemployment rate should rise to 7.7% from 7.4% last month. ADP Employment Change (USD, GMT 12:15) – Lasts month, ADP report revealed a -20,236k April drop that undershot the -19,520k private payroll decline by -716k. For May a -9,000k drop is seen, since nearly all measures of activity rose in May from a trough. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM-NMI index is expected to rise to 46.0 from 41.8 in April. Most producer sentiment reports should show May rebounds after huge April declines due to mandatory closures, on top of the demand hit initially associated with the pandemic, and the oil price plunge with the OPEC price war, as re-openings are underway in most states. The April drop in the ISM survey was much smaller than the declines seen in other measures, however, and this is why we expect a further drop in May for that measure. Interest Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Statement (CAD, GMT 14:00) – On April 15, the Bank held rates steady at 0.25%, matching widespread expectations. In the next policy statement, the BoC is expected to leave rates unchanged, the Bank of Canada Governor Poloz said is his last interview that negative rates are needed only in extreme conditions. Thursday – 04 June 2020   Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference (EUR, GMT 11:45 & 12:30) – Given that Lagarde buried any hope of a “mild” recession, the stage seems set for an extension of the PEPP program in size and duration at next week’s council meeting with an end date next year giving the economy more time to recover and EU aid programs to come into effect. Given that the ECB is no longer putting much hope in a quick recovery it is already clear that with the current time frame until the end of December that would risk a sharp widening of spreads in the second half of the year, when there is also the risk of a second wave of Covid-19 infections. Jobless Claims (USD, GMT 12:30)– US initial jobless claims contracted last week by -323k to 2,123k in the week ended May 23 after tumbling -241k to 2,446k previously. Claims have been declining since surging to 6,867k in the March 27 week. Friday – 05 June 2020   Event of the Week – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD, GMT 12:30) – A -2,200k May nonfarm payroll drop is anticipated, following a -20,527 April collapse, and a -701k drop in March. The jobless rate should rise to 17.5% from 14.7% from April, versus 4.4% in March. Nearly all measures of activity rose in May from a trough just after the April BLS survey week, but the initial and continuing claims data suggest a weaker labor market in mid-May than mid-April. Average hourly earnings are assumed to fall -1.0% with a partial unwind of the April distortion from layoffs being concentrated in low-wage categories. This would translate to a drop in the y/y gain to 6.6% from 7.9%. Labour Market Data (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Canada employment plunged -1993.8k in April, nearly doubling the -1010.7k tumble in March to leave a massive and rapid reversal in the labour market as firms cut jobs as most of the economy ceased to function amid the stay at home orders the began around the middle of March. For May employment should revealed a 4,000k drop in jobs, doubling again last months number. B]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.[/B]Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Moar questions how many corps in the SP500, NQ100, etc indexes are "rolling in revenue"?  ie they have more revenue than they did 6 months ago ??  thx.  just askin'       Weekend reading https://consentfactory.org/2020/05/20/brave-new-normal-part-2/   https://www.oftwominds.com/blogmay20/demand5-20.html
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.