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drsushi

Trading with PA "No Indicators"

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I joined a google group of traders that trades with price action alone. They use support and resistance areas from higher time frames and use multiple time frames down to 5, 8 or 16 tic charts for entry. The theory is based on six possible scenarios. A double top or lower high, these are both high failures, a double bottom or higher low, these are both low failures and higher highs and lower lows. If the low or high failure takes place at significant enough support or resistance there may be a trade to be had. I've attached (hopfully) 3 charts of 777 tic, 110 tic and 16 tic that is annotated. This is not something I put together. One of the traders in the group did to describe the method they trade by. I posted it for the interest of others and I'm also curious of the opinons of the followers of TL. I for one have struggled a great deal with the right indicator, TS add-on, timeframe blah blah blah and to tell you the truth this makes very good sense to me and If I use it with pivots and VAL POC and VAH for S/R I'm hoping it will have some merit. I'm fairly new to trading, so I'm hoping others with more experience will give thier thoughts.

 

David

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Sounds very interesting. I think this method, or price action trading, in general is the way to go.

 

PP has shown a similar idea with 2 timeframes. 1 has various important "pivot" or "Key" levels and the other is used to make trades off of based on price/volume action at these levels.

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I use mainly price action with S/R areas and chart patterns, sometimes with volume and Fibonacci to trade. It's the right way to learn to trade without too many indicators. Price action tells alot more than indicators since they are derived from price. You're on the right track but that's just me. I'm sure others have their own opinions on this.

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I joined a google group of traders that trades with price action alone. They use support and resistance areas from higher time frames and use multiple time frames down to 5, 8 or 16 tic charts for entry. The theory is based on six possible scenarios. A double top or lower high, these are both high failures, a double bottom or higher low, these are both low failures and higher highs and lower lows. If the low or high failure takes place at significant enough support or resistance there may be a trade to be had. I've attached (hopfully) 3 charts of 777 tic, 110 tic and 16 tic that is annotated. This is not something I put together. One of the traders in the group did to describe the method they trade by. I posted it for the interest of others and I'm also curious of the opinons of the followers of TL. I for one have struggled a great deal with the right indicator, TS add-on, timeframe blah blah blah and to tell you the truth this makes very good sense to me and If I use it with pivots and VAL POC and VAH for S/R I'm hoping it will have some merit. I'm fairly new to trading, so I'm hoping others with more experience will give thier thoughts.

 

David

 

David,

Nice examples, thanks for sharing.

 

My 2 cents on this type of trading:

 

1) It can work and be very profitable.

2) It takes TIME to get it down however.

3) Drawing those S/R lines in REAL TIME can be challenging.

4) Exits are key to whether you have profitable or failing trades.

 

The biggest issue is where to exit on these type of trades. Do you simply wait for a reversal or MIT an order at/near the next level or take a fixed profit? Depending on what you choose, that can be the difference between a profitable trade and a loser.

 

You also posted this in the candlestick corner, so I would mention that using your S/R lines in conjunction with candlestick patterns that confirm an area is being defended is a great combination!

 

Good luck and keep the thread going!

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Brownsfan,

 

I agree with everything you said. My thought is to use floor pivots (daily, weely, monthy, yearly) and MP value areas and POC's as support and resistance levels and see how pirce action behaves around those areas. Also, my assumption is that if I stay with the trend on a higher time frame that will reduce risk. I hope that is an accurate statement. Also, my intension would be to use specifc targets for profit such as 4 tics, 6 tics and then moving my stop to B/E or B/E +1tic and letting my other 1/3 of the position run, but manage the trade and take profit at s/r. The last 1/3 should be a free trade at that point based on profit of the first 2/3 and moving the stop. This would be on the ES. I'm not looking to make a fortune in a day. If I can do what I just described on a consistent basis I would be very satisfied. Am I out of my mind or is it reasonable?

 

David

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Brownsfan,

 

I agree with everything you said. My thought is to use floor pivots (daily, weely, monthy, yearly) and MP value areas and POC's as support and resistance levels and see how pirce action behaves around those areas. Also, my assumption is that if I stay with the trend on a higher time frame that will reduce risk. I hope that is an accurate statement. Also, my intension would be to use specifc targets for profit such as 4 tics, 6 tics and then moving my stop to B/E or B/E +1tic and letting my other 1/3 of the position run, but manage the trade and take profit at s/r. The last 1/3 should be a free trade at that point based on profit of the first 2/3 and moving the stop. This would be on the ES. I'm not looking to make a fortune in a day. If I can do what I just described on a consistent basis I would be very satisfied. Am I out of my mind or is it reasonable?

 

David

 

Can it be done? Of course!

 

Will it be easy? Of course NOT.

 

The premise sounds good now it's a matter of testing in real-time and see how it goes. Feel free to start a new thread or continue in this one about what/how you are using your ideas.

 

Good luck!

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David,

.......

3) Drawing those S/R lines in REAL TIME can be challenging.

............

 

That is why it might make more sense to use static levels that are plotted before the day starts.

 

I have not read the book so I can't recommend it, but there is a book specifically about this type of method called "Price Action Trading".

 

Some levels to think about could be:

 

1. MP levels (POC, VAH,VAL)

2. Yesterday's High (YH)

3. Yesterday's Low (YL)

4. Day Before Yesterday's High (DBYH)

5. Day Before Yesterday's Low (DBYL)

6. Key numbers (aka Floor pivots)

7. Actual pivot levels-places where the market did react/retrace/stall.

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And of course the next question is - what levels do you use and why? Use them all and your chart will look like a mess of horizontal lines everywhere. If you put enough lines on your chart, some will look like they nailed the HOD or LOD. Some will just get in your way.

 

And the follow up question: are static, fixed lines that are based on YESTERDAY'S price action good for determining TODAY'S price action? Food for thought.

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I agree with the point that drawing the s/r lines can be a challenge. I believe the folks in the group do as you stated ant drawing them in advance such as the night before. Some S/R levels can be intraday levels as well. I like the concept of using floor pivots and the MP levels and I think that YH and YL are valid as well. One doesn't have to have every line on a chart. Actually, what I do in TS is have multiple workspaces. One workspace may be my Market profile workspace with POC;s and VAH and VAL. I then have a seperate workspace for pivots. It's farly easy to switch tabs. If price starts to approach a level one can go to a lower time frame chart with no lines, or draw in one horizontal line where price is approaching and see how it starts to react. I use pivots and MP by Suri Dudella and his stuff can be broadcast to as many charts as you want. So if I have a daily chart as a source chart of pivots, for example, I can braodcast the pivots to any chart of any other timeframe. I don't have to draw anything. This is not a pitch for his stuff it just works for me.

 

David

That is why it might make more sense to use static levels that are plotted before the day starts.

 

I have not read the book so I can't recommend it, but there is a book specifically about this type of method called "Price Action Trading".

 

Some levels to think about could be:

 

1. MP levels (POC, VAH,VAL)

2. Yesterday's High (YH)

3. Yesterday's Low (YL)

4. Day Before Yesterday's High (DBYH)

5. Day Before Yesterday's Low (DBYL)

6. Key numbers (aka Floor pivots)

7. Actual pivot levels-places where the market did react/retrace/stall.

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Also, my intension would be to use specifc targets for profit such as 4 tics, 6 tics and then moving my stop to B/E or B/E +1tic and letting my other 1/3 of the position run, but manage the trade and take profit at s/r. The last 1/3 should be a free trade at that point based on profit of the first 2/3 and moving the stop. This would be on the ES. I'm not looking to make a fortune in a day. If I can do what I just described on a consistent basis I would be very satisfied. Am I out of my mind or is it reasonable?

 

David

 

This won't fly. The market does what it does and won't move to your rhythm at 4 or 6 ticks and expecting it not hit your breakeven. This is what price action is all about: reading what the price tells you where the nearest low is and nearest high and respect these level. You should be putting your stops above or below and not a fixed tick number then use S/R as your target and/or stop loss levels. The 2 go hand in hand S/R and price action.

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Here is a chart of a possible trade. I did not take this trade and at the same time of trying to avoid cherry picking a perfect example, I also wanted to show and example that would explain the concept. I forgot to draw in the possible stop, but it could be just below the HL on the 16tic below entry or just at or just below the pivot if entering sooner.

 

The 4 to 6 tics I think is an acceptable profit target. I'm not sure if i'm understanding your comment. If 4 tics is not an acceptable profit target then it wouldn't be worth even trading. The idea is to have say 3 contracts and with a stop just below or above the previous low or high. The stop could be 1-2 points. If I hit my first target of 4 tics moving the stop to BE-2tics seems reasonable. Could go to BE or BE +1. Or, if second target is hit then move the stop to BE. From what I have learned, and I will say maybe the most valuable thing I learned from TTM is reduce risk. The fast we can get the stop to BE, of course with out getting stopped out too soon the better. In the attached example the trade played out in a positive way. The last third can be exited on some criteria or, manage it anyway you want moving the stop to preserve profit. I don't know the best way.

 

The Sanuk Group on Google talks about this method and many or most of the traders in that group trade with price action in this manner. They may use volume bars or minute charts, but many of them speak of this method. I am just presenting here, but it really hit home with me. Anyway, I've gone on long enough. Feel free to comment. One last thing. I do like to use the Volume Delta OSC that someone created on TL. It shows divergences very nicely and can give a heads up to a turn. Also, the way price action was explained to me is that its the buyers and sellers going at it and one of them will take control which in depicted in price. This makes sense to me.

 

David

5aa70e3f32d09_3TimeframePA.thumb.jpg.ac8adec53048c2350e60b4a3401fe8f3.jpg

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This is an interesting topic. I hope this input is not too far removed from it...

 

I think if an indicator can show a certain aspect of price &/or volume &/or time behaviour that you believe is important then it should be used. If you can look at price &/or volume &/or time and trade/invest without the aid of any 'indicator' then that is right too. I actually believe that the better a trader gets the more likely it is she (or he) will use only price, volume and time. I suppose my point here is that there is no one right and wrong way.

 

I say all this because up until recently I have been a 'no indicator' believer (not because I am one of those good traders - far from it). But I have recognised I need to see a relationship between price and volume that my price and volume charts were not showing me clearly, and so now I use an indicator to help me see that relationship. I think the key to using an indicator is to fully understand what it is showing, fully understand the mathematics of its calculation (most indicators are simple enough for me to understand the maths...so anyone can!) and fully understand it limitations and constraints. I would also add that my use of the indicator does not extend to it being the buy/sell trigger - I would be interested if anyone does use an indicator in this way as I believe the entry and exit decisions comes from price alone.

 

 

 

Another point - what is an indicator?

I use the volume at ask minus the volume at bid on my charts - is this an indicator? I think of it as data generated by the market, it only becomes an indicator if I do something like apply a moving average to it.

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And of course the next question is - what levels do you use and why? Use them all and your chart will look like a mess of horizontal lines everywhere. If you put enough lines on your chart, some will look like they nailed the HOD or LOD. Some will just get in your way.

 

Yup absolutely agree you can end up with lots of lines depending what you use. Just using highs and lows off an hourly can end up with lots. Picking the right lines can be a bit of an art. It's not hard exactly as with all things it needs experience (work) :) Looking for 'clusters' is not a bad idea, these form if a price has been tested a lot.

 

And the follow up question: are static, fixed lines that are based on YESTERDAY'S price action good for determining TODAY'S price action? Food for thought.

 

The answer to that is an un-qualified YES. Are they good for predicting todays action the answer would of course be NO. My favourite example the good old floor pivot, yesterdays H+L+C/3 is a simple but effective sentiment indicator. Price above bullish price below bearish. Simple.The 50% spot 'works' good too H+L/2. As does the PoC. etc. etc. No predictive value but gives a clear and un ambiguous indication of "where you are".

 

As an aside. In the S&P, 70% of days, price will come within 2 ticks of the floor pivot. Heres the interesting thing the stats are very similar on an hourly chart or a 30 minute chart (using the previous bars 'pivot') this suggests to me there is some inherent usefulness in the number rather than being self fulfilling because everyone is watching.

 

Anyway sorry for drifting off topic but you did ask the question. :)

 

Personally I think using PA (be it candles bars or maybe VSA) to determine what is happening in areas where things might happen (previous S/R, MP etc.) Is a fantastic way to trade.

 

Cheers.

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Here is a chart of a possible trade. I did not take this trade and at the same time of trying to avoid cherry picking a perfect example, I also wanted to show and example that would explain the concept. I forgot to draw in the possible stop, but it could be just below the HL on the 16tic below entry or just at or just below the pivot if entering sooner.

 

The 4 to 6 tics I think is an acceptable profit target. I'm not sure if i'm understanding your comment. If 4 tics is not an acceptable profit target then it wouldn't be worth even trading. The idea is to have say 3 contracts and with a stop just below or above the previous low or high. The stop could be 1-2 points. If I hit my first target of 4 tics moving the stop to BE-2tics seems reasonable. Could go to BE or BE +1. Or, if second target is hit then move the stop to BE. From what I have learned, and I will say maybe the most valuable thing I learned from TTM is reduce risk. The fast we can get the stop to BE, of course with out getting stopped out too soon the better. In the attached example the trade played out in a positive way. The last third can be exited on some criteria or, manage it anyway you want moving the stop to preserve profit. I don't know the best way.

 

The Sanuk Group on Google talks about this method and many or most of the traders in that group trade with price action in this manner. They may use volume bars or minute charts, but many of them speak of this method. I am just presenting here, but it really hit home with me. Anyway, I've gone on long enough. Feel free to comment. One last thing. I do like to use the Volume Delta OSC that someone created on TL. It shows divergences very nicely and can give a heads up to a turn. Also, the way price action was explained to me is that its the buyers and sellers going at it and one of them will take control which in depicted in price. This makes sense to me.

 

David

 

My point was 1 pt (or 4 ticks) is acceptable, but moving to breakeven after such a small push forward is too close, and from my experience trading ES (and I tried scalping it and failed miserably at it) in the past, there will tendencies to hit breakeven alot. But others seem to do ok, go for it.

 

What I am saying is let the market dictate where the stop level is and not choosing to breakeven you determine; the area you choose to by a fixed amount will have a likelihood of get hit is high. If this is the case and you're scalping, you'll be paying lots of commissions and little profits. Just my opinion and experience.

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As an aside. In the S&P, 70% of days, price will come within 2 ticks of the floor pivot. Heres the interesting thing the stats are very similar on an hourly chart or a 30 minute chart (using the previous bars 'pivot') this suggests to me there is some inherent usefulness in the number rather than being self fulfilling because everyone is watching.

 

Interesting BF - can you provide some info to substantiate this? You got my curiosity now.

 

Also, silly question - what exactly are you referring to as the 'floor pivot'. I think I know, but some clarification would be good so we are on the same page.

 

;)

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Interesting BF - can you provide some info to substantiate this? You got my curiosity now.

 

Also, silly question - what exactly are you referring to as the 'floor pivot'. I think I know, but some clarification would be good so we are on the same page.

 

;)

 

Hi Brown by floor pivot I mean yesterdays (H+L+C)/3.

 

Short answer is no I cant. Funny, it was exactly the same sequence that got me to check for myself. Basically someone said to me 70% of the time blah blah blah... I thought hmm thats intresting and went anyway thinking about how I could prove it for myself.

 

I got a few years H L C data into excel, put the calc into another cell then tested to see if H or L hit the calculated pivot. I guess theres an outside chance the spreadsheet is hidden away somewhere, I'll keep an eye open for it.

 

Cheers,

 

P.S. Sorry that this is still a bit off topic but couldn't resist this chart of todays ES showing price turn of the PP to the tick. Obviously this is partly self fulfilling but its kind of neat when its this clean. PP is horizontal red dashed line.

picture16.thumb.png.9a4f753e77b30080b08d837fc07b8a37.png

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Hi Brown by floor pivot I mean yesterdays (H+L+C)/3.

 

Short answer is no I cant. Funny, it was exactly the same sequence that got me to check for myself. Basically someone said to me 70% of the time blah blah blah... I thought hmm thats intresting and went anyway thinking about how I could prove it for myself.

 

I got a few years H L C data into excel, put the calc into another cell then tested to see if H or L hit the calculated pivot. I guess theres an outside chance the spreadsheet is hidden away somewhere, I'll keep an eye open for it.

 

Cheers,

 

P.S. Sorry that this is still a bit off topic but couldn't resist this chart of todays ES showing price turn of the PP to the tick. Obviously this is partly self fulfilling but its kind of neat when its this clean. PP is horizontal red dashed line.

 

I appreciate it BF.

 

This should really belong in a new thread b/c it's a great tool to watch.

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Go for it email! I've spent a couple of weeks going through the Sanuk material and even hung out in there room a bit. It seems like a valid information to me. Having said that I'm 'sold' on PA. It can be used to find areas to trade, it can be used to trigger entries, it can be used for stops and it can be used for targets. Pure and powerful.

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I continually find myself using PA and basic S/R for my trading. I have an oscillator and $tick to kind of help eliminate otherwise bad trades. After the close I plot the open, low, and close for the next day and scalp around those areas using basic candlestick analysis. So far it's been profitable, and the more screen time I get the better I do. But it should be noted, I have no problems finding support and resistance areas in real time, I guess that just comes with the screen time.

 

It works very well during range bound movements, but during big trends it's easy to miss the major trend. I will try to take screen shots and possibly a video this week to show everyone how I do it and maybe others could see what I could improve on.

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Hello to everyone in this thread and thanks to drsushi for starting it.

 

drsushi ,you are very fortunate to have found that group, very neet. I am a big pivot point trader myself and would be paralyzed if I did not use them.

I see most guys here use the same method I trade with; floor traders pivots, YH, YL, UVA, LVA. A good understanding of chart patterns and candles are essential, especially at resistance or support.

Always on the lookout for triangles, AB=CD, Gartleys will give you a good edge.

 

I love this thread because it hits on most of the things I look at. Lately while I have been using the BID/Ask volume indicator on my charts (actually I would like if we could discuss this further). When approaching a key pivot, I notice many times that there may be a long bullish candle but the bid volume is twice as much as the ask, that is a good clue that we may be reversing.

 

Now the big thing the caught my attention in this thread was when drsushi explained his stops and profit taking. With the volatility we have been having lately I do not see how I could trade with less than a 3.5 point stop in the ES.

I enter my trades at either PV or VAH ot VAL, YH, YL or one of my De Mark projection points (tomorrows Projection, High of the day Low of the day) and want to ride a wave as much as possible so a one or two point profit is not my goal. You have to look at the big picture, if it fails at one of our points in the morning like, fills the gap and turns around or YH I want to ride that wave for at least six to ten points, maybe more, not two points, otherwise I am going to be in and out all day. I am not saying you cant do that just its not my style.

Another thing about stops as Torero mentioned you just can not pick a one or two point stops arbitrarily, you have to hide behind a wall or your going to get shot. What I mean is that the volatility and the way the market moves your stop will be toast if you do not place your stop below a pivot (and far away or they will hit it) or a MA, something. To make it float is nuts, unless your already in the money by six to ten points, thats different, but to do that at the start is going to get you stopped out allot, IMHO. Ok, I`m going to turn it over to you guys now.

 

Cheers to all,

email

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email,

 

I may have been a little unclear in terms of the stop strategy. I agree that the volatility could kick one out a lot. I by no means am an expert and am still learning. Much of the info I was sharing I have learned from the google group. I think the intent of the strategy is to place a stop above a previous high or below a previous low depending on the direction of the trade, of course. In the group they discuss using 3 time frames. The longer time frame gives general trend and the lower timeframe give the trade setups and an even lower timeframe is used for entry. The main method discussed in the group is the use of the 777tic for trend, 110 tick for setup and 16 or 8 tic for entry. Higher timeframes such as a 60 minute or 240 minute etc are used as well. One thing that is emphasized a lot is that if you see a double top on the 110 tic and then a lower high on the 110 tic you that would indicate sellers taking control. Assuming the trend is down that day you could enter short with a stop above the previous high wich may be no more than 2 points. Please don't shoot the messanger. This is what is taught/shared in the group. As far as exits go I've read concepts of scaling out in thirds or quarters mainly from the Trade the Markets guys and the theory is that the sooner you can move your stop to break even or break even minus a tic or two the less risk you have. If you scale out in thirds at 4 tics for the first third, 6-8 tics for the second third and open target on the last third with a stop at break even after the second target, even if the last third scratches you have a profitable trade. That is the theory. Is it a good one? I don't know. I too would rather hold for 5, 6 or 10 points. I would love to hear about other exit strategies. One thing I was thinking of would be to take a 100% fib projection from the prior swing as a first target and/or a 127.2 extension as a target. I don't like the idea of limiting myself to a 1 point or 2 point target, but it does seem smart to scale out and limit the risk as quickly as possible. If you get a runner or even 6-10 points on your last third that is still pretty good, isn't it? Let me know.

 

If you want me to post a chart of example trades let me know.

 

David

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And of course the next question is - what levels do you use and why? Use them all and your chart will look like a mess of horizontal lines everywhere. If you put enough lines on your chart, some will look like they nailed the HOD or LOD. Some will just get in your way.

 

And the follow up question: are static, fixed lines that are based on YESTERDAY'S price action good for determining TODAY'S price action? Food for thought.

 

Simply, Yes.

 

They are far better than mathematically derived numbers like "Floor Pivots". Key Numbers, aka floor pivots, derive their utility from two things: regression to the mean, and self fulfilling prophecy.

 

Market profile lines have as their basis the concept that because the market found support/resistance at this level today, all things being equal it should find the same there tomorrow. The market has memory. It knows when a price level is reached that found sellers/buyers the previous time the level was reached. If 510 on the emini, for example, brings in the bulls today as they see value, there is a good chance they will again see value at that level going forward.

 

I have been playing with this concept a bit after reading an article from Straightforex.com. Instead of using key numbers, they use what they call a "Market Map". The map consists of:

 

1. YH (Yesterday's High)

2. YL (Yesterday's Low)

3. DYH (Day before yesterday's High)

4. DYL (Day before Yesterday's Low)

5. PP (Pivot Point) (O+L+H)/3

 

The first 4 are already HUPs (Hold Up Prices) and may continue to be. One thing the map tells us is if price is above the PP the trend may be up. If Price is above either or both YH or DYH and above the PP the trend is up. The reverse would be true for a down trend.

 

After reading a couple of threads on this forum, I have become predisposed to the Pivot Range concept that Pivot profiler talked about. So I add the Range to the map, plus a couple more HUPs.:

 

1. YH

2. YL

3. DYH

4. DYL

5. PMH (Pre Market High= highest high made between 5pm close and 2am open NY time)

6. PML (Pre Market Low= lowest low made between 5pm close and 2am open NY time)

7. PP (H+L+(2*C))/4

8. PRH (Pivot Range High)

9. PRL (Pivot Range Low)

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    • Metro Line 2 Some mask up and prep to accept ‘Freedom Passes’ - if you test negative twice a week...  and coming soon to a province near you. if you test high social score twice a week ... To others, there was never a pandemic at all ...  simply because the covid death rate per capita never reached anywhere near ‘pandemic’ levels.  Despite constant hypnotism to the contrary,  without really demented statistical skewing the covid death rate per capita would be lower than that of typical flu strains.   Whatever ‘state’ you live in - Step up and take full responsibility for your own immune system. BREAK the lockdowns NOW!   That is not how exposure is prevented.   That is not how a species deals with viruses.    Healthy people should move about normally - WIHOUT MASKS!  Vulnerable people should stay close to home and be protected with as many precautions as possible.     Culture:  It is undeniable that liberty can be used to take liberty.  I’m just sayin’ ... 
    • In general I agree. But how can we explain stagnation in those econimic areas where public policies are more proactive?
    • NASDAQ 100 PRICE ANALYSIS — DECEMBER 1 The Nasdaq 100 (NDX) has rounded off November on a positive note, after the month up by more than 11%. This surge was mainly stimulated by the recently-concluded US Presidential election and the discovery of potential COVID-19 vaccines. These themes were the major dominating fundamental factors through November, as hopes for things to go back to normal (pre-covid) ignited some sectoral rotation. The rotation occurred mainly between work-from-home stocks and traditional businesses, which helped indexes like the Dow Jones (DJIA) and Russell 2000 take the lead from the Nasdaq 100. Nonetheless, the NDX remains in a favorable position as markets enter the close of 2020. That said, stimulus hopes and potential political stalemate in Washington over most of President-elect Biden’s policies could cause the Federal Reserve to maintain its dovish outlook, which would be very beneficial for NDX bulls. That said, it is likely that there are tailwinds present in the equity market ahead of December and 2021. However, there’s the possibility that the NDX could fall into consolidation before we see a continuation to the upside, as the US Presidential election-induced volatility has now been weaned out of the market. Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Value Forecast — December 1 NDX Major Bias: Bullish Supply Levels: 12300, 12370, and 12439. Demand Levels: 12220, 12000, and 11890. The NDX is on an aggressive bullish rally as it inches closer to its all-time high at 12439. At the moment, the 12220 support will likely prevent any sustained decline given the confluence of indicators (ascending trendline and 12220 crucial support) at that level. We expect the NDX to break its previous all-time high and record new peaks in the coming days before consolidation likely sets in.   Source: https://learn2.trade 
    • GERMANY 30 (DE30EUR) IS IN A DOWNWARD MOVE, MAY FALL TO LEVEL 13153.70 Key Resistance Zones: 13600, 14000, 14400 Key Support Zones: 11200, 10800, 10400 Germany 30 (DE30EUR) Long-term Trend: Bullish The index is an upward move but it is facing resistance at level 13200. It must have reached bullish exhaustion as it faces rejection. On November 10, a retraced candle body tested the 88.6% Fibonacci retracement. This indicates that the index will rise to level 1.1129 and perhaps reversed. DE30EUR – Daily Chart Daily Chart Indicators Reading: Presently, the SMAs are sloping upward indicating the uptrend. The index is at level 64 of the Relative Strength Index period 14. This indicates that it is in the uptrend zone and above the centerline 50. Germany 30 (DE30EUR) Medium-term Trend: Bullish On the 4- hour chart, the index is in a downward move. On November 30 downtrend, a retraced candle body tested the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This implies that the index will fall and reach level 1.618 Fibonacci extension. DE30EUR – 2 Hour Chart 4-hour Chart Indicators Reading The market is below the 80% range of the daily stochastic. It indicates that the index is in a bearish momentum. Meanwhile, the 50-day SMA and the 21-day SMA are sloping upward indicating the uptrend. General Outlook for Germany 30 (DE30EUR) DE30EUR is likely to take a downward movement. The index has been trading in the overbought region. Sellers may emerge to push prices down. However, in a trending market, the overbought condition may not hold. That is the pair will continue to rise. Source: https://learn2.trade 
    • Date : 30th November 2020. Events to Look Out for This Week.Europe and US are in the middle of a second wave of Covid-19 infections. The prospect of another hit to the economy in Q4 and emerging lockdown disruptions.still leaves central banks and fiscal authorities in crisis mode, but positive news on the vaccine front leaves investors looking ahead to the recovery. Next week’s focus will remain on the virus, Brexit as the latest and supposedly final deadline, is next Tuesday, OPEC+ group which will also decide on extending prevailing quota restrictions next Tuesday, and on the Non-Farm Payroll outcome. Monday – 30 November 2020   Eurogroup Meeting Non-Manufacturing PMI (CNY, GMT 01:00) – The Non-manufacturing PMI is expected to slowdown to 52.1 from 56.2 in October. Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 13:00) – The German HICP preliminary inflation for November is anticipated to remain unchanged at -0.5% y/y. Pending Home Sales (USD, GMT 15:00) – Pending home sales experienced a minor decline at -2.2% in September after four consecutive months of contract activity growth/ For October we could further decline to -2.6%. Tuesday – 01 December 2020   RBA Rate Statement & Interest Rate (AUD, GMT 03:30) – In the last meeting, RBA stepped up stimulus to ensure recovery by announcing a package of measures designed to secure a rapid recovery from the crisis now that lockdowns have lifted. RBA’s Lowe also stated that he sees no appetite to go into negative rates. The central bank head send a pretty clear signal that the focus now has shifted to asset purchases, with no appetite at the central bank to move into negative rate territory. Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 10:00) – Preliminary November inflation expected to remain unchanged at -0.3% y/y in the final reading for September, unchanged from the preliminary release. Core inflation meanwhile declined to 0.2% y/y and while special factors are playing a role, officials clearly are increasingly concerned that the prolonged period of underinflation and now negative headline rates will prompt a more lasting shift in price expectations, which against the background of a sizeable output gap and rising unemployment lifts the risk of real deflation down the line. Gross Domestic Product (CAD, GMT 13:30) – Canada GDP results for the Q3 are seen to be slowing down, at a yearly rate of -39.6% compared to 38.7% last month. ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 15:00) – US manufacturing PMI is expected to fall to 57.5 in November from a 2-year high of 59.3 in October. We’re seeing a modest November pull-back in available producer sentiment measures to still-elevated levels, as output is continuing to rise in the face of plunging inventories and rising sales, with limited headwinds from delayed stimulus and continued virus outbreaks. Fed’s Governor Powell testimony (USD, GMT 15:00) Wednesday – 02 December 2020   RBA’s Governor Lowe speech (AUD, GMT 00:00) Gross Domestic Product (AUD, GMT 00:30) – GDP is the economy’s most important figure. Q3 GDP is expected to confirm slowdown to -7.8% q/q and -7.2% y/y. Retail Sales (EUR, GMT 07:00) – German sales are anticipated to have fallen slightly to -0.8% in October, compared to -2.2% m/m in September. ADP Employment Change (USD, GMT 13:15) – The ADP Employment survey is seen at 500k for November compared to the 365K in October. Thursday – 03 December 2020   Trade Balance (AUD, GMT 00:30) – Australian retail trade is expected to see a strong decline in August, at -8.5% y/y from the downwards revision in June at -2.9% y/y. Retail Sales (EUR, GMT 10:00) – Retail Sales dropped -2.0% m/m in September, more than anticipated. It left the annual rate still at 2.2% y/y, indicating a pick up compared to the same months last year, but different sales season amid the pandemic distort the picture and the annual rate is actually down from 4.2% y/y in the previous month. ISM Service PMI (USD, GMT 15:00) – US Markit October services PMI was revised up to 56.9 in the final read versus 56.0 in the preliminary. It’s the best reading since April 2015 and is a third month in expansion. In November the ISM Service PMI is seen at 56.4. Friday – 04 December 2020   Retail Sales (AUD, GMT 00:30) – October’s Retail sales could be improved by 1.6%, following a -1.1% September loss. Non-Farm Payrolls (USD, GMT 13:30) – Expectations are for the headline number to be around 750k in November, after gains of 638k in October, 672k in September. The jobless rate should fall to 6.8% from 6.9% in October, versus a 14.7% peak in April. Average hourly earnings are assumed to rise 0.1% in November, with a headwind from further unwinds of the April distortion from the concentration of layoffs in low-wage categories slows. This translates to a y/y gain of 4.2%, down from 4.5%. We expect the payroll rebound to continue through year-end, though the climb is leaving a net drop for employment for 2020 overall. Employment Change & Unemployment Rate (CAD, GMT 13:30) – Canadian data coincides with the USA release today with dire expectations for a slight deduction in Unemployment to 8.8% from 8.9% last month and a rise from the 83.6 in October for employment, to 100k. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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