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kick buttkowski

Who Has A Strategy That Works??

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....

 

A final comment about obtaining "proof"...I realize that is it fashionable to request financial records from vendors....hey...have at it if you must but from my point of view it is much better to do your own investigation. Not only can you obtain the data (your ultimate proof) but the advantage you get from doing this work yourself is that you have up to date evidence that a strategy works (or does not) and if you find something worth doing, the work you did to "prove it" provides you the internal confidence that helps you to "pull the trigger" confidently when you are trading it yourself....

 

 

Regarding "proof" as regards to strategy performance and trading acumen, the old saying comes to mind "those that can, do ... those that can't, teach" (or in this case, sell! ). When you ask someone to spend thousands of dollars for a strategy or course of study, you surely don't expect someone to do this on faith, do you? They want to have some idea that the strategy they are purchasing has some validity and certainly that the person selling it has a past (preferably extensive) history of making money trading this strategy and trading (making money )in general.

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Try paying attention to the context joseph (it will help you to find your own success)

 

Those who can....do.....that is what I am doing....I no longer teach (therefore I have nothing to sell).....and even when I did I traded my own account during class (in contrast to felton who traded a sim)....also I charged my students $200 a month....not "thousands"....in my opinion no vendor should charge "thousands" to learn how to trade....

 

I speak for myself now....from my point of view my financial records are none of your business....my ability to trade IS however.... and for my students I displayed that ability in real time over a period of a week so that they could see (before paying) for themselves. I taught two classes....in the first I had a problem with my data feed and we had to stop for period of time...until it could be fixed...for the second...we had no problems and the class went smoothly...at the end of my class students were asked to stop and go out on their own to prove to themselves that they could make it in this business..for better or worse that is how I chose to do it.....its history now...and I notice that none of them have posted comments to the contrary....

 

Finally my comments are meant to encourage folks to become their own teacher....again pay attention please....if you do this yourself you pay nothing except for your time....and if you choose that road....I suggest that you (all of you) take the time to properly research your ideas and gather enough data (I suggest a mimimum of 100 and preferrably 400 data points) to justify putting money at risk...

 

Best of luck to everyone

Edited by steve46

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Try paying attention to the context joseph (it will help you to find your own success)

 

Those who can....do.....that is what I am doing....I no longer teach (therefore I have nothing to sell).....and even when I did I traded my own account during class (in contrast to felton who traded a sim)....also I charged my students $200 a month....not "thousands"....in my opinion no vendor should charge "thousands" to learn how to trade....

 

I speak for myself now....from my point of view my financial records are none of your business....my ability to trade IS however.... and for my students I displayed that ability in real time over a period of a week so that they could see (before paying) for themselves. I taught two classes....in the first I had a problem with my data feed and we had to stop for period of time...until it could be fixed...for the second...we had no problems and the class went smoothly...at the end of my class students were asked to stop and go out on their own to prove to themselves that they could make it in this business..for better or worse that is how I chose to do it.....its history now...and I notice that none of them have posted comments to the contrary....

 

Steve:

 

I'm not referring to you specifically. You demonstrated your trading acumen BEFORE people paid for your class. That is the way it should be. But it is caveat emptor. I'm just saying that trading acumen needs to be demonstrated before I would buy.

 

By the way, you state " Try paying attention to the context joseph (it will help you to find your own success)". Who's to say that I am not successful at trading? That is my whole point! We are all anonymous on the net and can effectively be whoever we want to be.

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What are the starting points or methods that we newbies or struggling traders should be looking at for discovering that certain edge and or coming up with the bread and butter or go to strategy that is different from the copied mass strategies.

 

Where is starting point of how to come up with these edge's?

 

How did you successful traders find your edge, or the process you went through to achieve this accomplishment?

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I'll offer this comment and then I'm done. After all I no longer do this (teach) for a living

 

The starting point is learning to characterize the way your target market behaves from start to finish....on a typical day, how does the market open....for example does the market open and move one way for the first few minutes, then reverse and trend? how does the market act on days when economic reports are released, on days when "bellweather" companies present earnings, or on days when news about the European crisis hit the wires?

 

How does it act during mid-day....what does the last hour look like? This is simply about your ability to observe and make notes about the market you want to trade...to the extent that you learn to observe and come away with useful info, you may find something that no one else sees....something that forms the basis for a profitable trading system.

 

Good luck

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What are the starting points or methods that we newbies or struggling traders should be looking at for discovering that certain edge and or coming up with the bread and butter or go to strategy that is different from the copied mass strategies.

 

Where is starting point of how to come up with these edge's?

 

How did you successful traders find your edge, or the process you went through to achieve this accomplishment?

 

If struggling means losing, then the first thing you need to do is get to be a break even trader. To get to be a break even trader you need to first identify the market you are in to know which entry strategy you want to apply. So, is the market ranging or is it trending or is it doing both? if it is ranging then you want to take trades at support or resistance. There are a multitude of entry set ups for this type of market on these threads. If it is trending, then you likely want to enter with some sort of pull back set up. A fib pullback or something like. If it is doing both, then you want a simple breakout set up to enter. Perhaps, a 1-2-3 set up.

 

Print out charts and circle and draw the trends, ranges, etc. and Identify what you should have done and when you should have done it.

 

The goal is to learn how to take these trades and execute the trade perfectly. Perfect execution means that you sit there and let it either hit your target or your stop and fight off all temptations to take additional actions. It also means that you do not chase an entry, do not modify your criteria for entry or exit because of a missed trade or a loss, etc. Most people can't do this. If you learn to do this then you'll have an edge over most traders. You might make money or lose money instead of breaking even. The money at this moment isn't important. The important thing to do is to move from being a struggling trader and the first step is to learn how to execute without fail even if it means losing money.

 

A fact that most "struggling traders" do not learn is that you have to lose money sometimes. A good strategy can and will lose money. Sometimes it is for days, or weeks or longer depending on what the strategy is. Just because it lost money, it does not mean that you need to change it or tweak it. What can occur is that the strategist, is applying the wrong strategy to the wrong market conditions (range, trend or breakout).. The strategy doesn't need to me "tweaked", it needs to be changed to a different strategy that suits the market conditions. But, if you got the conditions right, and you lose money, it does not mean that something is wrong even though your mind will think something is wrong. You need to learn this first so that you will have the will to execute the next trade even though the last one or couple failed.

 

The above will absolutely get you to breakeven over time and is a first step. Identifying conditions and execution.

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Windsurfer:

 

I'm not necessarily saying you have to publish your strategies (although why not?), it just doesn't make sense why traders who say they are successful, and do not want to share the reasons for their success, are even on these forums.

 

You say: "my answer: there is a lot of good advice here about the steps to take, time involved, the products to look at, etc that can be helpful." Why would they be interested in advice on subjects they say they have already mastered?

 

My point is why not share what has worked for you? If you are afraid that the word will get out and your setups will no longer work, I think those fears are unfounded. Their is no "Holy Grail". As someone mentioned before, good setups are a dime a dozen. The real secret lies in the psychology and the discipline of trading, but a good setup is needed as well. Plenty of people have shared some setups they use so why not share yours? This stuff of "give me $5000 and I will tell you" smacks of a school playground with " I have a secret and I'm not going to tell you!".

 

Some of you say you are very successful. Great! Forums are for sharing ideas. Why not share? And if you are not into sharing then again my question: Why are you here? This all presupposes that those who claim to be successful traders on these forums are in fact successful.

 

If they are successful, then why not share the information? And if they are not and merely pretending, then they are wasting all our time!

 

 

Thanks for this amusing post.Really though,i'm looking for a belly laugh,you know, a spit your coffee all over the screen moment that one rarely enjoys here..... looking forward to your future posts,and in particular you sharing your hard won insights with a bunch of strangers,who,almost without exception won't thank you for it,and in some cases will tell you you're an idiot.

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When someone has a system that works, I believe it’s generally better to share than not, unless the bulk of the system is proprietary or mostly adapted from one that is. The main reason I hold that belief is because the sheer attempt to share the intricacies of all that goes into a consistently profitable trading system forces oneself to become clearer in thought. In the pursuit of making others better traders, one becomes better themselves.

 

Teaching truly robust systems that stand the test of time and incorporate all the little things that many trading systems ignore can not only be incredibly time consuming, but they can often include components that are not fully objective. In the pursuit of teaching others and getting the much needed valuable feedback can often prompt further plan objectification, and by that, I mean the teacher him/herself is forced to find ways to eliminate those pesky elements that are subjective in nature.

 

The more pressing issue, to me, isn’t if a trader with the heart of a mentor should help others. I think the answer is yes. Instead, a harder issue to deal with is which mentor should a ready, willing, and able trader-in-the-making pursue.

 

I have fourteen years of short-term trading experience, and though most of what I know is self-taught, it wasn’t until I entrusted an unbelievably successful mentor did my trading take off to a new level.

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I'll offer this comment and then I'm done. After all I no longer do this (teach) for a living

 

The starting point is learning to characterize the way your target market behaves from start to finish....on a typical day, how does the market open....for example does the market open and move one way for the first few minutes, then reverse and trend? how does the market act on days when economic reports are released, on days when "bellweather" companies present earnings, or on days when news about the European crisis hit the wires?

 

How does it act during mid-day....what does the last hour look like? This is simply about your ability to observe and make notes about the market you want to trade...to the extent that you learn to observe and come away with useful info, you may find something that no one else sees....something that forms the basis for a profitable trading system.

 

Good luck

 

I think Steve has hit the nail on the head regarding a general approach. Many posters here and elsewhere seem to want to get the goods without getting to know the girl first. Why not learn the general behavior of the market you trade, as steve recommends here, and then trade it accordingly? Develop a relationship with the girl first, and then you don't have to guess as much what works :-)

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I think Steve has hit the nail on the head regarding a general approach. Many posters here and elsewhere seem to want to get the goods without getting to know the girl first. Why not learn the general behavior of the market you trade, as steve recommends here, and then trade it accordingly? Develop a relationship with the girl first, and then you don't have to guess as much what works :-)

 

God Josh. Please, anything but the girl analogy. Some of us come here to escape.

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When someone has a system that works, I believe it’s generally better to share than not, unless the bulk of the system is proprietary or mostly adapted from one that is...

 

people make their own choices.

to share or not to share, it is up to them.

right or wrong, that is a relative concept.

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people make their own choices.

to share or not to share, it is up to them.

right or wrong, [...].

 

I don't disagree, and I didn't mean to suggest that there is some obligation on anyone's part to even so much as lend a helping hand.

 

There are advantages to teaching others, yet you're right, it's still up to the individual as to whether they will inform others of their methodologies. I didn't say that it's better to share than not, regardless of individual circumstances where the disadvantages may outweigh the advantages for some.

 

I was talking in more general terms only to point out that there is a great benefit to teaching others—a benefit to the mentor. What I believe is that it's generally (generally, that is) true that it's better to share what we've learned with others than to not do so, and one reason (the main reason) I cited is that it fosters clarity of thought, especially in regards to one's own trading. There are, of course, other reasons both for and against doing so.

 

Either way, it was never my intention to speak of what a trader ought or ought not do.

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I always liked this quote "The trader is the weakest link in any trading system" – Alexander Elder

 

Hi Tim,

 

If this is true (I would certainly tend to agree with you), then surely the solution is to take the trader out of the trading system as much as is possible?

 

BlueHorseshoe

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If this is true (I would certainly tend to agree with you), then surely the solution is to take the trader out of the trading system as much as is possible?

...............under pressure and over time every chain exposes a weak link...........all chains by definition have a weak link......an alternative solution is perhaps to find a way to play to the strengths of the trader within the trading system and therfore preserve the integrity of the chain?

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I always liked this quote "The trader is the weakest link in any trading system" – Alexander Elder

 

that is soooooo true...

gonna check if there are any scientific researches about this :)

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Hi Tim,

 

If this is true (I would certainly tend to agree with you), then surely the solution is to take the trader out of the trading system as much as is possible?

 

BlueHorseshoe

 

I think it would be better to strengthen that instead of removing it :cool:

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There are many threads in this forum that describe methods that people have worked with for years and done very well with them.

 

People change their thinking and then they change their trading plan. The system will still be working but that particular trader has become bored or disappointed so he looks for another approach.

 

I was looking the other day at some threads by Walter The Chimp.. his rainbow approach....... he made a lot of money with that as did a group of the thread members....... all of a sudden the thread died, everyone lost interest.

 

And that has happened to many, many great approaches.

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if one wants to be a day trader then pick one or two markets. watch them live for three or four months every day just to get a feel how they move. watch in different time frame..30 min..15..5min..1 min..etc. better yet record each days session and watch in different time frames as you are able. just make sure you get at least 3 months watching time...no trading..no sim.. just watching and observing how that particular market moves in different time frames. just getting a general feel for the market. during this time try to determine what time period you would be more comfortable trading. much of trading is about "discovery".

 

from observing the charts in different time frame over 4 months or so you should have probally seen that prices trend up or down. they also trade in ranges where they basically track sideways. most ranges will also have micro trends within them.

 

my idea of trading (simplistic as it may seem) is too take advantage of what happens over and over in the markets..i.e. trends and ranges.

 

in trends i have discovered that trading pullbacks in trends is a good strategy. not just any trend trading methodolgy but trading "with" trend strategies that enter on pullbacks. simple but effective. you just need to make sure you are doing this in a trend and not a micro trend. markets tend to trend probally 30% of the time or so. of course that varies some but i am speaking in general terms.

 

next develop or find range trading strategies. since markets track sideways about 70% of the time in general, this too is an effective strategy. basically you would develop or find techniques that give entry for shorting near top of the range and entries for going long near the bottom.

 

focus on one or two markets..learn them well...then sim them for a few months..then and only then look at going live.

 

keep things simple..use candles..focus on PA learn a few things well..practice them alot..then look at trading...follow the obvious in the markets..

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Yes, their system worked.......... it just didn't work the way they wanted it to.....:rofl:

 

Or maybe their system was 'screw up then get bailed out', in which case it's still working pretty well! :)

 

BlueHorseshoe

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Re: Who Has A Strategy That Works??

 

Quantifiable Edges: How To Trade The Choppiest Environment In 50 Years

 

 

"As you can see, buying after strong days and selling after weak ones worked well for 40 years. In 2000 that changed, and the last year and a half is the worst it has ever been with regards to follow through. This would suggest that strategies that may have worked well for forty years or more could be suffering greatly now. Traders should consider the current choppy market behavior when designing strategies. Buying weakness and selling strength is working better than buying strength and selling weakness. They could also monitor charts like these to see if tendencies begin to revert back to pre-2000. If tendencies do revert, adjustments may be needed".

 

If you have a mechanical system,you will have to adapt or abandon it at some point.

If you are a discretionary trader you can't run backtests....

the list of the shades of grey in this biz is quite long.

 

Is "a strategy that works" the right question? Almost every statement you make about markets can be turned on it's head and torn apart.

It is difficult to find 2 traders who will draw a trend line the same way.So you may decide to only draw horizontal lines or no lines at all.Later you might come across a blog or a post here where the guy looks like he's nailed the holy grail of trend lines.Thing is,even if he has,they won't work for you because you don't understand or agree with the other rules/context he uses with them.

Then you may get directed to read a book by the "daddy" of trend lines.This book will end up as a door stop..almost guaranteed :(

With many endeavors in life the learning curve gradually leads to a positive outcome.In trading,if you are not careful,the learning curve can end up turning into a circle

 

Which is more important,strategy,tactics (a word missing from the OP) or trade/money management?

Many seem to believe that money management is king and that often translates to a stop that is x points/dollars.But that takes no account of the changing nature of the market you're trading- range/volatility/context etc.MM is pretty much part of the trading decision.

Eg,do i give this trade room to work today? how soon can i recognize i'm right/wrong?

 

You may find yourself forever trying to simplify every part of the process- not a bad idea.When things are going well it will feel simple.If it's not going so well you may find yourself complicating the whole thing again,or at least re-assessing :doh:

 

I've traded through a bull a bear and another bull.I think what i do is simple.I think i could fulfill the required cliche of summarizing what i do in a paragraph........

 

...Then we could spend the next 20 pages while people tell me why it doesn't work,and it would take quite a few paragraphs for me to explain why one aspect of it will work/will not work today/this hour/this part of the cycle.

We'd need to see it (most people prefer the visual example) So out would come the charts- all hindsight anal- ysis... everybody loves predictions-they just hate people who actually make them though.Predict and be right-you were lucky/it's only one trade.Predict and be wrong-you're a prat. :roll eyes:

That only leaves one other fork in the road which involves saying if this happens or that happens...Whereupon some joker will say "so,it could go up,or down...or uh sideways...thanks".And promptly unsubscribe from the thread.:haha:

 

Naturally a 100 charts would prove nothing,for some people 1000 charts would not suffice. 25 Gann traders would reject your chart based on the fact that they are not squared price and time.If you used a bar chart the candlestickers won't like it and if it's a 5 minute chart the scalpers will laugh (assuming there are any scalpers left these days.)

 

And the biggest joke is maybe at one time you were a would be Gann trader/candlesticker/scalper yourself but moved on to better/worse things.

 

"who has a strategy that works" ? Gimme a break,if only Livermore was here you could ask him.You might get very different answers depending on which point in his life you asked him though...........

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I have, what I consider, to be a fairly good system, I make a few dollars with it.

 

I have whatever tools I need to trade it very effectively, some days I look to be brilliant.

 

Today..... I closed the charts because I can not see the trades...... is my system crap...... better thinking tells me that I am not focused.

 

Instead of changing the system, I am doing replay..... I have done 'change the system' or 'get a new system' too many times, the one I have is great, sometimes I am dumb........

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    • USDCHF Breaks Below Its near Term Support Zone on the Level at 0.9926 but Recovers Abruptly USDCHF Price Analysis – October 8 The FX pair breaks below the horizontal zone on the level at 0.9926 but reverses again after recovering from its early selling pressure. The USDCHF was able to find buyers again around the level at 0.9908.   Key Levels   Resistance Levels: 1.0231, 1.0126, 1.0015   Support Levels: 0.9897, 0.9870, 0.9843   USDCHF Long term Trend: Ranging The price of the pair has moved back towards the moving average of 5 and 13 areas on the level at 0.9950. This area requires to be broken to give buyers more upside potential to move higher.   However, the decisive break of the level at 1.0231 is required to indicate bullish resumption. Meanwhile, the medium and longer-term may remain neutral first.   USDCHF Short term Trend: Bearish After trending downwards to about 50 pips lower after the open, the forex pair managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control and may exit the day above its opening price.   The USDCHF’s pull back from the level at 1.0015 extends lower today but stays well above the lower horizontal zone on the level at 0.9843 support. While still in a long-term uptrend, the short trends have turned bearish already.   Source: https://learn2.trade   
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