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mohsinqureshii

Gold Bullish or Bearish

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"Whichever it is, gold had been more often right than wrong in the past — and it would be foolish to ignore it now."

 

Uhhh was it right or wrong last year?

 

"Gold has a long and impressive record of warning of trouble ahead in the global economy. It has usually been right in the past — ......"

 

Usually right is impressive to this permabull? Wow!

 

That is a good article for seeing yet again how the long only crowd thinks.

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Another point about that article:

 

"The financial markets have not run according to the script so far this year. Equities were meant to power forward as the global economy recovered, bonds would tank as central banks stopped printing money, and gold would go back to being the “barbarous relic:"

 

Guess he didn't read this or look at his own charts:

 

Panic Proves Fleeting in February as Stocks, Bonds Rise

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-28/stocks-commodities-burn-bears-in-frozen-february-rallies.html

 

For all the talk of a crisis at the start of the month, February ended up being the best period for global markets since July.

 

Stocks, bonds and commodities rose together in February for the first time in seven months, reversing January’s losses in equities and raw materials.

.........

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its another BS conspiracy article for excuses.

Think about it.....

Its basically saying that a few traders trying to manipulate their bonuses pushed gold down to where they want for the year.

If this is the case that some individual traders can manipulate the year end price of gold for their bonuses - it does not say much for the gold market and the gold bulls should be very worried at how thin and crap the gold market actually is.

 

In the manipulation that has been revealed the traders have been more interested in the short term daily manipulation of prices whereby they continually lock in 'risk free profits' every day in order to build up their PL. through front running.....This is where the manipulation occurs.

 

Then to roll out some crock of linear analysis of the long term.

Very handy that they apply it to the recent rally....and not 20,30,40 years.

 

If its obvious that a few individuals manipulated the gold market in 2013, why then didnt they do it in every year from 2000-2013? Why didnt this writer make millions shorting gold last year.....cause its sooooo obvious.

 

It also shows a complete lack of understanding of markets that they can deviate from their fundamentals for a period of time because of the market 'mood', even if over the long term the fundamentals do remain sound.

 

You dont need this type of analysis as a gold bull You simply just buy gold and save your reading time, or you trade what you see is happening at the time.

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Russia invading Ukraine can't even get the Gold bulls very excited.

 

That should tell anyone thinking of buying how weak sentiment actually is presently

 

It did wonders for whoever was short MICEX though.

Edited by SunTrader

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Is the London Fix fixed?

 

Russ Norman/Futures Magazine

 

It is with a growing sense of disbelief that one reads ongoing stories about the supposed rigging of the London gold fix. The questions center on the following:

 

Why are there price spikes during the afternoon fix and not the morning fix?

 

The answer is because the p.m. fix is when both London and New York are both open and as a buyer or seller you have a greater chance of getting a better price when liquidity is optimal. You would not for example get a good price when market participants are absent. If you have a big position to put on (or take off), you trade when most others are available to take the other side of your trade.

 

Why are there large price moves during the time of the fixing?

 

The answer is the fix is a price discovery process and as such large buying and selling orders collide here - large moves are therefore to be expected. In fact, the mere fact that it does move confirms some differences in opinion over fair value between the clients dealing in the fix - actually it supports the notion of the integrity of the process.

 

Why is the move often down and not up?

 

The answer is that the fix is used by official institutions (like central banks) and many major miners who all require an "objective" and published price because they need to more accountable than say a proprietary trader. The spot price for example is neither objective nor published. Selling by miners in size every day and invariably outweighs any official buying which is typically large but infrequent. Hedging or financing for the miners have will often link their financial arrangements to the gold fix.

 

Why is the fix done on a private call amongst members?

 

The answer is that it's not private, it is an open call. Clients dealing on the fix can and do change their orders - or indeed cancel them during the process. This is fundamental and fixing members will not know their own client orders in advance of the fixing process - let alone client’s orders done through other fixing members.

 

If the London gold dealers had consistently shorted gold as maintained then they would have incurred losses of such a colossal scale to render the economic crisis a sideshow in comparison (gold has rallied six-fold over the last decade). In short, the desks would have been closed down 10 years ago.

 

The reports conclude that the process is "open to manipulation", which has been taken up by the wider media to presume with certainty that it has. You could add that any deal on the floor of any exchange or where there is a human element has precisely the same weakness. To presume guilt is something altogether different. We do seem to live in a world where rumor carries more weight than fact or any real endeavor to understand how things operate.

 

If vested interest is the key issue here then one wonders about the motivation of the report author who stands to benefit directly and personally from these allegations. Bloomberg - shame on you also for a lack of journalistic discretion and judgment ... and a failure to ask the right questions.

 

Ross Norman is owner and chief executive officer of the London-based gold broker Sharps Pixley Ltd.

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Agree 1330 is support, on a daily basis. But even though Friday's volume was the most in over a month and it was a down close, it came back from being below 1330 and closed up for the week too, Bulls should be ok - for now.

 

Above average volume might be funds rolling into next contract also.

 

On a weekly basis I see support as 1265, but not as bullish as daily shows.

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Limit buy @ 1365

stop @ 1363

profit @ 1375

 

Hi kuokam

I read your post with interest.

Well done . You are in the money.

I think a $2 stop is too small when the average daily range is about $12.

My stop varies on what time I entered but is usually about $5

I would welcome some comment on this.

regards

bobc

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You are right, Bob, the stop looks too short. But on my chart at that time, the previous low was that near. Take a look.

 

Cheers.

 

 

Hi kuokam

I read your post with interest.

Well done . You are in the money.

I think a $2 stop is too small when the average daily range is about $12.

My stop varies on what time I entered but is usually about $5

I would welcome some comment on this.

regards

bobc

GC14041303.PNG.4d1dfc52a9dec63cb6abc7c9a002aedf.PNG

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You are right, Bob, the stop looks too short. But on my chart at that time, the previous low was that near. Take a look.

 

Cheers.

 

WOW kuokam,

This is a sophisticated Market Profile chart.

You never told us about this!!

regards

bobc

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Ukraine, FOMC To Dominate Gold Market Direction; Next Stop $1,400?

An election in Ukraine’s Crimea and a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee will influence gold trade next week, as the market remains highly sensitive to geopolitical events.

 

The Federal Reserve monetary-policy meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday will give gold traders further ideas of what the Fed thinks regarding the economic outlook. So far most economists are still expecting the Fed to stay on track with reducing its quantitative easing program.

 

April gold futures rose Friday, settling at $1,379 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, up 3% on the week. May silver rose Friday, settling at $21.413 an ounce, up 2.3% on the week.

 

In the Kitco News Gold Survey, out of 33 participants, 25 responded this week. Twenty-one see prices up, while two see prices down and two see prices trading sideways or neutral. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical-chart analysts.

 

Gold prices rallied sharply this week on safe-haven bids as tensions between Ukraine and Russia over the Crimea continued. Several gold-market analysts said Sunday’s Crimean referendum on whether or not to join Russia will give gold direction to start the week.

 

Most other nations said they will not recognize the vote, and analysts at Nomura said if the referendum passes, “we expect relations between Kiev’s new government and Moscow to deteriorate further, and this could continue to weigh on global risk sentiment.”

 

Weaker global risk sentiment usually translates into demand for safe-haven assets, like gold.

 

Gold also found support from concerns about China’s economy and some of its businesses after one of its firms failed to make a bond payment, and gold-market analysts said these worries also drove some investors into gold. A few firms like Nomura and Barclays said Friday because of the softer Chinese data, they are lowering their Chinese first-quarter gross domestic growth targets, with both reducing the target to 7.3%.

 

Due to gold’s strong gains, there’s a lot of talk in the market of the yellow metal being able to build up enough momentum to test $1,400 as soon as next week. One bullion dealer said while physical demand remains subdued, the interest by the investor community is helping to drive prices higher.

 

“We’ve heard a few of the fund customers are getting interested again in gold, and there were some additions to the ETFs (exchange-traded funds). With the dollar under pressure and the situation in Russia being not so great, I think there will be interest to push to $1,400 next week to see what’s up there,” the bullion dealer said.

 

Weekly Outlook

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Ukraine, FOMC To Dominate Gold Market Direction; Next Stop $1,400?

.........

In the Kitco News Gold Survey, out of 33 participants, 25 responded this week. Twenty-one see prices up, while two see prices down and two see prices trading sideways or neutral. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical-chart analysts.

When too many are leaning one way the market has a habit of going the other way.

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"With gold prices under pressure, Lucas said in the short-term the yellow metal could end up testing lows around $1,320; in the longer term, he said prices could fall back to $1,300 before physical buyers come back in."

 

Been there, done that.

 

Russia kicked the Crimea out of the Ukraine and Gold went .... down,

 

Read on Reuters this morning Gold slides further as Dollar firms on positive U.S. data.

 

Dollar then loses all of its earlier gain and is now unchanged, but Gold is still .... down.

 

The red-headed step child for well over a year now. But perma-bulls still believe.

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Gold - "I've fallen and can't get up".

 

$2000 is going to have to wait another day ... or week ... or month ... or year ... or

 

Lol where will you be when i rise again?

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Seems like the Asian session has seen traders buy at seemingly bargain prices; I am of the view that the down-trend will continue through London session and be amplified during NY session.

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