Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

bootstrap

I Look Back Now and Wonder

Recommended Posts

Nicely said.

 

As for me I just joined this TL board 5 minutes ago. I've been trading equities and options on and off for 20 years. Last year I took 50k from my equity account and tried trading ES. Lost 40k in about 3 months (probably to a lot of guys on this board!). Anyway I did some reading, and made all my cash back and quite a bit more swing trading equities part time.

 

What sucks is that I really liked the fast paced ES action. I just think using a standard IB account with high speed internet puts me at too much of a disadvantage to the pros out there trading ticks.

 

I am back, and on the hunt for a less choppy symbol to trade.

 

Thanks for the thoughts.

 

Drew

 

Es is a slug these days. Sometimes it takes hours to move 2 points. It's probably one of the least volatile contracts now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I guess I really don't know what I'm doing here. I started trading stock options because of the leverage and small trading capital about 6 months ago. Before opening an account with Trade station I read and read everything I could get my hands on about the markets, technical analysis, trends, breakouts, fundamentals, support and resistance, etc, etc & etc.

I started with long calls and puts because they are simple. This latest market decline has kept me on the sidelines. This amount of volatility is too much for me. (I also know options traders like it.)

 

I have lost about half of my trading capital and thinking about "cut and run". I haven't fallen victim to all the 1000's of news letters and trading system on the street, if they are so great why aren't the developers walking the beaches of the South Pacific. I would really like to find a mentor but the choices are many and expensive.

 

I do not have a clue as to who will see this post. Open for suggestions.

 

Thanks, Jim

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

you are still trading and that is the most important if this is what you want to do.

 

i am back guys. and for good. lots of family stuff over the past year(s). we can go into that later.

 

trading success really takes only one thing. discipline.

 

but discipline does not mean going down the wrong road blindly.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

10)And last but probably most important, don’t be afraid of failure. Just do like Edison and go, “Well that didn’t work”.

 

Great post Bootstrap. #10 was a big one for me. I was afraid of what others would think about me if I didn't make it in trading. Once I realized that it really doesn't matter what they think and I committed to doing whatever it takes to become consistently profitable I started to see big things happen.

 

Whether it's on a conscious or subconscious level I think your list of 10 can really help frame you with the right mindset.

 

Happy Holidays,

Tim

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

hI,

 

I enjoyed reading Bootstraps intro here. After 15+ yrs trading, I know of what he speak. I would like to slightly disagree on 2 points,though.

 

#2-Dont pay for a system. I dont agree. Buying systems have taught me things I would never have gotten on my own. Things NOT to do! And just as important, things that really dont mean squat if its in the stars to be your day, dont sweat the small stuff.(And sometimes I think it's ALL small stuff) I also assume you put paying for a trading room either and there I definitely think you need the comraderie of other traders, even if, as I said....they are horrible and teach you what NOT to do. Let me give you the most important thing I learned from systems. I always thought that if you never counter trend traded, always entered the trade just as price is crossing both the 8 and 20 SMA, you cannot help but break even right there because you are trading with the big money. After all. who is moving a heavily traded stock or currency with such momentum it could not only stay above the 20sma but also propel itself above the 8 as well. For day trading I thought this was the nuts and everything else was just minor things. WRONG! WRONG! WRONG! I wound up because of this system taught in a trade room by a very, very famous day trader whose initials start with on O.,learning that yes, it is the big money that swings a stock or commodity up to ride that "8 train" as he said. But what I was never taught was that there are many groups of big or smart(not always the same) money that could in 5 minutes have it marching completely back the other way. He never mentioned that part! I go on record as saying that playing stocks trading over 2m shares daily on a 2 or 5 minute chart that are trading over the 8and 20 sma on along trade, I have lost at least 75% of my trades!!! 5 years ago I would say its impossible. I also learned that while moving average "based" systems might have made the Turtles and other past commodity traders rich, I have never done anything but lose money when my primary rule is based on moving averages!!! NO book ,and maybe not even experience would have given me that in just 6 months. However.... don't pay a lot of money for any system. Thats always true! Anything more than $1000 out of pocket in one crack is a red flag IMHO.

 

#8-I put in 18 hours a day and 12 on weekends. I too thought that quitting my regular job and living on savings and just paper trading and studying books and systems and Internet articles day and night would allow me to get in SKILL in18 months where most traders take 7 or 8 years to get. Wrong! I found that getting up at 8:30am to watch the market trade until 4, then studying my trades until 5, and then if I couldnt fall asleep would start following Spot Forex at 1am or earlier was preventing my body fromk ever naturally winding down. I would up on high doses of sleep medication that only now, years later can I even go to a normal dose to fall asleep by an "earlybird" 1am!!!! Sometimes I would trade Forex right thru till Market open at 9:30.

 

I dont think that is healthy physically or psychologically for 98% of people. I lost all my interest in working out and walking and now at age 51, I lost all the muscle I spent 20 years accumulating and I cannot get it back. My new motto concerning trading: GIVE TIME....TIME."

 

Yet bootstraps you might be in that 2%, Im just saying we must learn to respect our bodys needs. I'd like to have a dollar for every tradere counted in the 95% who lose, quit not because of going broke, but because they lost something far more valuable...their energy and their health!

 

That said, I think Bootstraps makes a lot of sense,but as even he says...take everything with a grain of salt. Oh, about systems...if you are attracted to a system, dont pay anything more than $1000 to "taste it. And never believe a money back guarantee. Its so easy to stall you and 5000 others off and just go out of business and walk away with millions. Funny but I learned the most in rooms I paid $125 a month to be in. No fees or anything else. And if you are attracted to a system...ask yourself what it is about it that tickles you, and can you get the strategy cheaper by just buying a book. For example if you want to make a living being a candlestick expert, why give someone thousands of dollars when there are many ways to learn candlesticks for the price of a couple of books. And speaking of BOOKS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!...............

 

No I do not think Nissans work, and Oliver Velez and Gann and Robert Prechter can ever make you a winning trader no matter how much they charge for their rediculously overpriced books.(FInd me one guy who ever even said they make a living at any market just from learning from any one of those guys. Just one. You wont! And I learned thru trade rooms that my fascination with Elliot Waves better stay that....a fascination because not one room moderator in 10 years of room hopping could ever hold a room together based on Elliot Waves. Sorry guys, but my humble opinion is that as a main strategy, used as a stand alone, its crap. But as an aide,a scan, or a tactic to help you....sure, why not. Ok, I did my rambling. I am happy to be here with a bunch of people that seem a cut above the average room in class and manners. Anyone who would like to chat, just PM me. I hope to learn from and meet many more like Bootstrap here in the future. This is my first day here!!!! Cold beers in a frosted mug on me, all around! Cheers!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
:o worth framing that one

 

 

Firewalker, I love that quote!!! Priceless as you say. I dont think everyone gets how deep that can really go. You see, we always hear stories about a trader who "unveils" his story to us about how he succeeded. What I want is to hear the stories of guys who blew up 5 trading accounts, lost their house, lost their regular job cause they couldnt stay off the Internet(me!),lost their wife and even lost their perspective OF life. We dont hear from THOSE people....and those people are far, far in the majority. I think if we have a book called Market Wizards, we should have its opposite called Market failures. In fact, I should start a thread here to do just that. Trading is a merciless business. You can put in 40 years and still wind up like Edward Levebre from the "Stock Operator" book and die alone and broke in a hotel room after making millions trading. Those are far more common. We need to hear rthose stories...not just to pay homage to the "fallen soldiers" who may have been smarter than a Market Wizard" but not luckier. Or destined to be in thew wrong place at the wrong time. Myself: I have never gotten over buying 300 shares of APPL at 33, watched it go to 35 but set my stop at 33 and said I would get back in as soon as it picked up momentum. I got so involved with daytrading in a prop room, I forgot about it until 3 months later when it was way to high. I will wait for a pullback I said. It then went on to skyrocket past $700 and I wanted to have a position of at least 1000 shares when it went past 50. I can likely never get an opportunity like thsat again. Hell, Warren Buffett prbably never had that happen to him. So what Im saying is, brains or not, persistance or not, it is soooo much easier to fail at trading than to succeed. And the real kick in the rump is we never have control. We can only "hope" that what we do continues to hold its edge or else we might have to start all over again. How many suicides have taken place because of this addicting,exciting profession? Look at Gann, Elliot, Charles Dow and all the forefathers of stock trading. They all were/ became very physically sick. Was it from trading...or just coincidence?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
you are still trading and that is the most important if this is what you want to do.

 

i am back guys. and for good. lots of family stuff over the past year(s). we can go into that later.

 

trading success really takes only one thing. discipline.

 

but discipline does not mean going down the wrong road blindly.

 

 

That really sounds very well. Like some old pirate who goes on the sea after some time. I am rookie but like people with writing style like yours

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I wasn't sure where to put this, so the powers that be can move it if they see fit. I put it here for anyone who is just starting out and wondering what it really takes to become part of that elite club of profitable traders.

 

I lurk on several trading forums. I join a few and make a few posts. One thing that I rarely see is the painful path one took to becoming successful. So for all you beginners here is what becoming successful took. For my fellow brethren that are already in the club have a good laugh.

 

The markets had always lured me as a kid. I would read the paper and make predictions. Sometimes they were right; sometimes not. Then one day I got that famous commodity-trading flyer, sent my money off and took the plunge.

 

My first stab at trading was commodities and I started with $5k in 1991. I was using the strategy as outlined by the guru. The account was gone within a few months. Well that didn’t work. I thought, people do this everyday and make money why not me.

 

So off to the library. I read every book the Memphis library had on trading and investing. I paper traded the strategies I found while I built my bankroll back up. I learned exits, set-ups, position, expectancy, market psychology, and portfolio management. I soon realized that I was reading the same thing over and over no matter which book I checked out.

 

Time to build my strategy. I am ready to do this. I bought a new computer, Metastock Pro 6.0, and opened an account with $30k. Its 1995, and this is my shot. By 1997 I was toast again. The family life went to hell in a hand basket, and I thought I could trade through the difficult times. The result was an account with a balance of $2500.

 

Back to the drawing board. Took care of the personal stuff. Lived like a monk raising capital. Worked nights and watched the market during the day. Took a second job on the weekends to raise more money.

 

Then one day out of the blue, the little red and green candles started to make sense. I saw patterns develop over and over in the same spots. I placed a trade and made a profit. But I had done this before. I removed the MACD from my charts. Placed another trade and made a profit. Maybe I am on to something. Removed the channel indicator that I stumbled across. I could still see the action and new what the MACD was doing and where the action was in the channel without them even being on the chart. I even stopped drawing trend lines.

 

It was just me and the screen. I planned every trade. I knew exactly when, where, and why I entered and exited. I was patient. I became a predator. Lurking and waiting. I took every shot the market gave me. If it started to go wrong, I got out quick and waited. If the market did not give me an opening, oh well. There is always tomorrow.

 

By the fall of 1999, I was consistently profitable and have been ever since. For those that are waiting for the sales pitch, there isn’t one. For those that are waiting for me to expose some great secret, well there isn’t one of those either.

 

What I will give you are a few simple pointers that I learned the hard way. And the sad part is, most will stilll learn these the hardway.

 

1)Take everything you read with a grain of salt. That includes this post.

 

2)Never pay for a system. It is just not that easy.

 

3)If something comes up in your life that is distracting, stop trading.

 

4)Plan every aspect of your trade down to the smallest detail, and plan for every possible outcome.

 

5)Develop your own strategy. Don’t let someone tell you that you can’t trade a simple moving average if you truly believe you can.

 

6)Test the strategy in the market that you will be trading. If you like the results, trade it in another totally unrelated market and see if it still holds up.

 

7)Paper trading is ok, but there is nothing that truly tests the strategy like hard earned cash.

 

8)You will have to make sacrifices in order to make it. I still do. In the middle of my learning period I was working 18 hours a day during the week and 12 on the weekend.

 

9)You are responsible for everything when it comes to trading. That includes stop running, bad fills, limit moves, your PC crashing. I mean everything. See #4

 

10)And last but probably most important, don’t be afraid of failure. Just do like Edison and go, “Well that didn’t work”.

 

Good trading to you all.

i like your post, good trading to you too

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Milica,

 

I really like your outline. But....some of us cant work and also trade. So when #10 in your guidelines comes up where you fail and say to yourself "Oh well, its just another one. I will try again." What do you do when you calculate in your head as I am doing right now, that you have gone thru over 1/2 of your lifesavings, not in trading, but for the last 3 years of paper trading, honing your skills as you traded live many times before and want to be sure this time. What happens when you wake up one day and go...I have 1 year to figure this out or I will not be able to eat "and" have a trading account at the same time. What can you possibly do to not let that pressure get to you. If you choose to take a break or take off and just work when you dont want to at all, it could ruin you as a trader. It almost ruined me,one time.

 

I remember seeing a documentary on people in prison and how after a certain amount of years, these people cant they absolutely can "never" come out and live a normal crime free life again because they wouldnt know how to adjust to it. As some prisoners confessed..."At least here we know what to expect every day. I never had that feeling of belonging outside as I do in here. So..I will probably do something stupid to get myself right back in here."

 

I think of myself. How I spent the last 4 years sitting in front of moving charts till 5 or 6am trading spot Forex and being able to sleep as late as I want to recover my sanity, I could never trade properly on just a few hours sleep a night as some lucky people can. So I know I have to come up with something soon ,because if I have to go back to work atmy middle age, I may lose the feeling for trading and get "too used to doing things another way" as a convict might say.. Then what?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The most important things in my life are the commitments I have made. Family is a commitment. I would never do anything to compromise that commitment. If you lose your family because of trading, you do not know how to focus on the important things in life and likely lack the ability to focus period. Without the ability to focus, I doubt someone will be able to trade at all.

 

Gamblers have a similar mindset. They will risk the grocery money on a sports bet or a blackjack table. I do not have much respect for those people. If you are not making enough money trading and causing issues in your home, then you should seek help. Save your family and drop the trading. Too many other things in life are far more important than watching a screen or trying to get a better hand at Blackjack than a dealer.

 

No doubt trading is fun. It would be great to be able to do it full time all the time. If you are not profitable, then you have an issue. If you are profitable and you do not have enough trading capital, you also have an issue. Either way, you cannot spend your time trading if you have obligations that you have committed to and either do not make any money or cannot make enough money trading.

 

Would I risk my family like the OP? Fuck no!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The most important things in my life are the commitments I have made. Family is a commitment. I would never do anything to compromise that commitment. If you lose your family because of trading, you do not know how to focus on the important things in life and likely lack the ability to focus period. Without the ability to focus, I doubt someone will be able to trade at all.

 

Gamblers have a similar mindset. They will risk the grocery money on a sports bet or a blackjack table. I do not have much respect for those people. If you are not making enough money trading and causing issues in your home, then you should seek help. Save your family and drop the trading. Too many other things in life are far more important than watching a screen or trying to get a better hand at Blackjack than a dealer.

 

No doubt trading is fun. It would be great to be able to do it full time all the time. If you are not profitable, then you have an issue. If you are profitable and you do not have enough trading capital, you also have an issue. Either way, you cannot spend your time trading if you have obligations that you have committed to and either do not make any money or cannot make enough money trading.

 

Would I risk my family like the OP? Fuck no!

 

Point well made! Had I just played around with trading for 2-3 yrs it would be easierr to do what you say. But, I havent got a lot to lose at this point, and all my experience I wont let go for naught. I may not have learned exactly what TO do, byut I have leaned exactly what NOT to do. Sort of Like Edison making his 10,000 mistakes and knowing 10,000 things not to do. Life has a way of sorting itself out. Thank you,though. Youve been a big help. I've got just a few things left to try and then there is nothing to do but......???????? When its no longer enjoyable, thats definitely the time to quit.

 

peace

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The most important things in my life are the commitments I have made. Family is a commitment. I would never do anything to compromise that commitment. If you lose your family because of trading, you do not know how to focus on the important things in life and likely lack the ability to focus period. Without the ability to focus, I doubt someone will be able to trade at all.

 

Would I risk my family like the OP? Fuck no!

 

Well said..family should be above everything...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm new to this site as of today and this post is hilarious. Brings back a lot of bad memories but also that "aha moment". I could never figure out how ever time I started a position the stock would go down the next day. Those of you new to trading...read this post carefully. There is NO easy money in the world and trading the markets is no exceptions...HOWEVER...as with any thing you do you get better at it. Those of you new to trading, GOOD LUCK! It can be the most rewarding, yet most painful experience you will ever have.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1)Take everything you read with a grain of salt. That includes this post.

 

2)Never pay for a system. It is just not that easy.

 

3)If something comes up in your life that is distracting, stop trading.

 

4)Plan every aspect of your trade down to the smallest detail, and plan for every possible outcome.

 

5)Develop your own strategy. Don’t let someone tell you that you can’t trade a simple moving average if you truly believe you can.

 

6)Test the strategy in the market that you will be trading. If you like the results, trade it in another totally unrelated market and see if it still holds up.

 

7)Paper trading is ok, but there is nothing that truly tests the strategy like hard earned cash.

 

8)You will have to make sacrifices in order to make it. I still do. In the middle of my learning period I was working 18 hours a day during the week and 12 on the weekend.

 

9)You are responsible for everything when it comes to trading. That includes stop running, bad fills, limit moves, your PC crashing. I mean everything. See #4

 

10)And last but probably most important, don’t be afraid of failure. Just do like Edison and go, “Well that didn’t work”.

 

Good trading to you all.

 

Very nice post. An inspiration, really.

I would just add a #11 (or probably as a part of #3): trade if (and only if) you can do it. If the moment comes that you're supposed to stop, stop it immediately. There's some more in your life that requires your attention.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What your not flogging a product? Everyone's a salesman ! Thanks I've been trading with EAs for 6 mths. Live accounts are the real deal and its hard to take the losses $5000. I've lost $600 Draw down in one night, got that gut feeling. Thanks.

Still EAs for me. They do what there programed to do, humans cannot. No emotion consistent trades, with less maintenance than my wife . Thanks bootstrap.:beer::beer::beer:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well put.... I did a post in another forum titled 'why I will never teach a trading course' ... the basics are out their the rest .. well you have covered it ... accept perhaps that becoming a successful trading is a personal journey (without trying to sound Zen like) and you have to find your way.

 

as for the courses... the best one I heard was the guy teaching it saying.... 'Most people blow their account out in 3 month.... my goal is to make it last 6 month'. Just what most people aspire too (lol please let me pay for that right!).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date : 16th April 2021. Market Update – Pricing in a solid global recovery again. Treasuries posted strong and very surprising gains, overlooking robust data and a solid rally on Wall Street. It was something of a buy-the-fact trade as hefty data was the well advertised risk (Retail sales surged 9.8% in March and climbed 8.4% excluding autos & Initial Jobless Claims tumbled -193k to 576k). The 10-year yield dropped 10 bps to 1.530%, the lowest in a month. The break of key technical levels added to the bid, with some haven demand too amid virus and vaccine worries, along with some geopolitical risks. The USA500 and the USA30 reached record highs thanks to strong data that supported the recovery narrative, along with hefty earnings, and the drop in yields. The USA100 outperformed with a better than 1% jump and is back over 14,000 for the first time since mid-February. As Refinitiv reported, USA100 traders were all bulled up buying the tech breakout yesterday after the USA100 rallied 10%. BUT we should keep an eye on technicals as RSI has reached overbought levels. Elsewhere, Asia markets were largely steady after China reported a sharp acceleration in first quarter growth, though the reading slightly undershot expectations while retail sales bounced strongly last month. For Europe, GER30 and UK100 futures are currently up 0.3% and 0.1% respectively. In FX markets, EURUSD is little changed at 1.1968, while GBPUSD dropped back to 1.3761. USDJPY is little changed at 108.79. AUD and NZD fell slightly below yesterday’s peak. USOIL extended gains to 63.84. Gold held steady near a more than one-month high on Friday, en route to its second straight weekly gain, boosted by a drop in US Treasury yields and a weaker Dollar. Today – Today’s data calendar focuses on final Eurozone inflation readings for March and February trade data also for the Eurozone. US Building permits, housing starts and Michigan Index are also on tap. Biggest (FX) Mover – (EURGBP @ 07:30 GMT -0.43%) The asset rallied to 0.8710 retesting the 7-week highs for a 3rd time. Intraday the fast MAs aligned higher, RSI is at 66, while MACD is positive but signal line holds at neutral. ATR (H1) at 0.00061 and ATR (Daily) at 0.00488. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date : 15th April 2021. Q1 Earnings Season – BAC and Citigroup. This week the key Q1 Earnings season kicks off in earnest, with many of the major US banks reporting and expected to massively beat consensus, something that could please the bulls. But will this be the case? And if yes, then what? As Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan stated, Q1 is the peak in terms of earnings growth; even though the absolute level of growth will still be very healthy, deceleration is a powerful force in the market. Nevertheless, investors seem to be waiting for new catalysts before pushing valuations out much further and the earnings season provides a major focus against the background of conflicting virus and vaccine headlines. Hence the earnings slate remains busy for the remainder of the week, and will include reports from UnitedHealth Group, Bank of America, Pepsico, Citigroup, BlackRock, U.S. Bancorp, Truist Financial, PPG, Delta Airlines, J.B. Hunt, Morgan Stanley, HDFC Bank, PNC Financial, Bank of New York Mellon, State Street, Kansas City Southern, Citizens Financial, Ally Financial. Hence the focus today turns to Bank of America and Citigroup Inc. and their first Quarter earnings release for 2021. The Bank of America (#BankofAmerica OR BOA) consensus recommendation is “Buy”, even though revenues are expected to miss as earnings are likely to exceed according to the majority of the consensus recommendations from the Eikon Reuters terminal. According to Zacks Investment Research, the report for the fiscal Quarter ending March 2021 is expected to experience a near quarter rally of its Earnings Per Share (EPS) compared to last year, at 0.65 from0.65from0.40. Reuters Eikon predicts similar EPS, while the company’s revenue is seen depreciating slightly from a year ago to $22.03 billion (Eikon) with a mean change at 3.63%. The BOA has surpassed earnings forecasts in the last two quarters, driven by a positive decline in provisions of credit losses on a sequential basis, while its revenues have suffered due to weakness in core banking, which it is strongly dependent on. As Forbes stated, the company witnessed an 11% y-o-y drop in net interest income, which contributes around 50% of the total revenues. Despite the fact that the financial sector has been a major beneficiary of the “reflation” trade and the 1.9 trillion Stimulus Bill and the proposed1.9trillionStimulusBillandtheproposed2.25 trillion Infrastructure Bill, which are all likely to continue benefitting the banking sector, the net interest drop led to a drop in the full year 2020 BOA revenues, despite a 20% jump in the Global Markets segment driven by higher sales & trading and investment banking revenues. In regards to Citigroup now, things are slightly different as the bank’s pandemic reserves are worth almost 10% of the bank’s market capitalisation. However as more and more Americans are vaccinated and the government releases more stimulus, the more the pressure from the banks’ credit models will be for the banks to release some of the cash. This means Citgroup will face less pressure than other big banks. On top of the above, Citigroup is in general in a better setup as higher trading activity in the securities market and a jump in underwriting deal volumes boosted trading and investment banking revenues for all the main banks and Citigroup was no different. Further, with the stimulus and possible vaccination development (so far 119 million people have received the Covid-19 vaccine in the US), provisions are expected to see a further decrease in Q1 2021, boosting its profitability. Hence Citigroup is expected to report adjusted earnings of 2.60, in comparison with the2.60,incomparisonwiththe1.06 EPS reported for the same quarter last year. The revenue is seen at $18.82 billion, according to Eikon group analysts estimates, nearly 9% lower than Q1 2020. From a technical perspective, whatever the outcomes are, much is anticipated from the numbers of Bank of America and Citigroup, both banks are expected to outperform the consensus estimates for earnings, while revenues are likely to fall short of expectations. Both banks remain technically Bullish, trading north of their respective 20- and 50-day moving averages. Today #Citigroup is at 72.90,[/B] below its 2021 highs at 72.90,[/B]belowits2021highsat[B]76.13 but still in 3-year high territory. #BankofAmerica is at 39.86, just a breath below all record highs with next Resistance areas at the Fibonacci extensions, at the 39.86[/B],justabreathbelowallrecordhighswithnextResistanceareasattheFibonacciextensions,atthe[B]42 and $45.30 levels. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date : 14th April 2021. Market Update – World stocks hit record high. Market News Today – Treasuries erased early gains, but bond markets across Asia remained supported, after investors shrugged off the hotter than expected US inflation number yesterday and focused on the successful 30-year bond auction. Global stock markets rose to a record high on Wednesday as bond yields eased after data showed US inflation was not rising wildly as the economy reopens. As Reuters reported, Johnson & Johnson’s shares slid 1.34% after US federal health agencies recommended pausing the rollout of its COVID-19 vaccine for at least a few days, after six women developed rare blood clots. Setbacks to vaccination rollouts have raised concerns about the global economic recovery. New Zealand’s RBNZ left policy settings unchanged and confirmed its commitment to an expansionary policy, which helped to underpin the rise in Australia and New Zealand bonds. A sharp sell off in one of China’s largest bad-debt managers attracted attention and rekindled concerns over credit markets. Bloomberg also reported that Tencent Holdings Ltd is holding off marketing a planned dollar bond deal. Central banks remain focused on providing stimulus and the hotter than expected US inflation number hasn’t re-booted reflation trades so far, as negative vaccine headlines added to the already concerning outlook for EU supply. In FX markets, the USD was steady to lower after yesterday’s decline in Treasury yields and USDJPY fell back to 108.96. AUD and NZD gained. Both EUR and GBP lifted against a largely weaker Dollar, with EURUSD currently at 1.1964 and Cable at 1.3777. USOIL meanwhile is trading at 60.73 per barrel. Bitcoin hit a record above 60.73perbarrel.[B]Bitcoin[/B]hitarecordabove[B]64,500, extending its 2021 rally as Coinbase shares are due to list in the United States. Gold held up well against the USD. Today – Data releases today are unlikely to change the overall outlook, but include Eurozone production data for February and inflation numbers out of Sweden. Comments from ECB’s Guindos will also be in focus. US calendar has March trade prices but earnings to headline with JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc GS.N among the companies reporting. Biggest (FX) Mover – (NZDUSD @ 07:30 GMT +0.61%) The NZDUSD spiked higher on the largely USD weakness and after the RBNZ statement. The asset broke its 1-week resistance and turned above R2 and the round 0.7100 level. Currently fast MAs and MACD lines are aligned higher but RSI and Stochastics have started turning lower, suggesting a potential pullback. ATR (H1) at 0.00119 and ATR (Daily) at 0.00566. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • covid illustrates 'the extraordinary madness of crowds' and that  young people are more skeered of covid than older people is a sign of effective psyops ... just sayin' https://www.naturalnews.com/2021-04-11-5-dumbest-things-americans-doing-more-susceptible-covid19-mutations.html
    • Date : 13th April 2021. Q1 Earnings Season – The Banks. This week the key Q1 Earnings season kicks off in earnest with many of the major US banks reporting. Q1 earnings are seen as key for setting the tone of company performances as the post-pandemic timeframe gains momentum as the vaccination rate continues to climb and states continue to open up. Overall the US equity markets closed at all-time highs again last week, with a strong close on Friday just shy of those inter-day highs. The USA500 closed at 4,123, the USA100 at 13,800 and the USA30 at 33,751. The Financial sector has been a major beneficiary of the “reflation” trade and the 1.9 trillion Stimulus Bill and the proposed1.9trillionStimulusBillandtheproposed2.25 trillion Infrastructure Bill, which are all likely to benefit the banking sector in particular. So far 20 of the S&P 500 companies have reported and on average they have beat expectations by 11%, which is over 1.5 times above their average over the last 3 years. Overall expectations for the S&P 500 is for Q1 Earnings to grow by a very significant 25%, which would be the best performing quarter since President Trump’s tax cut inspired Q1 2018. Additionally, what is more encouraging is that estimates have been rising as the Earnings Season arrives; normally they start to decline as the data starts to emerge. Back in late February/early March consensus was for 22% Q1 growth. This enthusiasm is tempered by the high valuations the S&P500 is running currently; forward earnings are currently projected at 22.3 times whereas in a normal economic cycle the historical average is 15 times earnings, hence the scepticsim over further growth from here. However, overall 2021 earnings growth remains very robust and is penciled in at 26.5% versus a -12.6% decline for 2020. Another key drag on future growth in 2021 is President Biden’s proposed increase in Corporation Tax to 28% from 21%; estimates suggest that this could reduce earnings by 7.4% for 2021. Earnings season kicks off significantly tomorrow, (April 14) with big banks leading the charge. Reports are due from JP Morgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and First Republic Bank. Later in the week there will be data from Bank of America, Citigroup, BlackRock, U.S. Bancorp, Truist Financial, Morgan Stanley, HDFC Bank, PNC Financial, Bank of New York Mellon, State Street, Citizens Financial, Ally Financial. Whatever the outcome, much is anticipated from the numbers and tomorrow (April 14) JP Morgan are first up at 12:00 GMT with expectations of an Earnings per share (EPS) of 3.10[/B] and revenues increasing 5% to 3.10[/B]andrevenuesincreasing530.10 billion, this is followed by Goldman Sachs at 12:25 GMT with consensus numbers of an EPS at 9.79 and revenues also up to 9.79[/B]andrevenuesalsoupto[B]11.71 billion and also before the bell tomorrow is Wells Fargo at 13:05 GMT with an expected EPS of 0.69 on revenues of 0.69[/B]onrevenuesof[B]17.41 billion. Last time JPM and Goldman Sachs both beat on both revenue and EPS numbers significantly whilst Wells Fargo missed, disappointing the markets. All three key banks remain technically Bullish trading north of their respective 20-day moving averages. On Monday (April 12) JPM closed at 153.07, a few dollars shy of the March 18 high at 153.07[/B],afewdollarsshyoftheMarch18highat[B]157.18, Goldman Sachs closed down 2% at 324, some 324[/B],some[B]23 below the March 18 high, whilst Wells Fargo closed at 39.98 off 1.93% for the day and 39.98[/B]off1.930.89 below the close on March 18. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.