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Savant

EURUSD Discussions

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Though i'm biased short, current price action is neither short nor long ... the pair is stuck, waiting for a catalyst to drive it somewhere?! How many times $1.38 was broken to the upside, only the pair fall down! The last time $1.34 was attacked, only price to bounce higher!

 

It's one of these situations, that you either wait for the direction to take place and follow - or you bet, with a 50/50 chance

 

The range last week was about 78 pips from high to low. We are certainly range bound.

 

The standstill in the Ukraine continues as the Russian Army troops remain assembled at the Ukrainian border, taunting the West with their presence, and the secrecy of their mission.

 

Increased sanctions are are supposed to be implemented on Monday. But how far will they go? Like you I am biased to the short side. We had a lower high on the Daily Charts last week. If 13775 gives way I would expect a retest of 13700. All in all, a lot of drama for 75 pips. I think I'll play with EUR/JPY this week. :)

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The range last week was about 78 pips from high to low. We are certainly range bound.

 

The standstill in the Ukraine continues as the Russian Army troops remain assembled at the Ukrainian border, taunting the West with their presence, and the secrecy of their mission.

 

Increased sanctions are are supposed to be implemented on Monday. But how far will they go? Like you I am biased to the short side. We had a lower high on the Daily Charts last week. If 13775 gives way I would expect a retest of 13700. All in all, a lot of drama for 75 pips. I think I'll play with EUR/JPY this week. :)

 

I have to agree with your Bearish sentiment on EURUSD . As long as 1.3900 holds i am playing the downside and it may go down to ur targets of 1.3775 or even lower.

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Fundamental Forecast for Euro: Bearish

 

A serious flaw was exposed in the European Central Bank’s policy strategy this week, setting up the Euro for a potentially rough few weeks going forward. With ECB President Mario Draghi saying that the Governing Council felt “comfortable” enacting further dovish policies at the June meeting once the new staff economic projections were released, the market’s growing calls for new dovish action has been materially altered into a full-blown expectation of a substantive policy change in four weeks.

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The fact that euro has been ignoring ECB members retracements from the initial Draghi statement and Bundesbank clarifications tells me that position is still long or at least not overly short. Still I believe there has been a substantial covering from long-term longs, forced solo by the size of the move.

The size and speed of the move also tells me there were longs caught off-guard for a 1.40 break, and eager money to short as the cracks appeared.

Interesting to note is the reluctancy to sell EURUSD while it’s trending higher and only events like this are needed to create any serious selling pressure, which can't be sustained on current ECB behavior.

With all the selling and EURUSD still trading at 1.37 is very euro positive.

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After the previous week's sharp losses in the EURUSD following a key reversal, we had felt the euro might be able to stage a modest recovery. Such was not the case. The weekly high was about 25 pips above last week's close - a feeble performance - and working toward the end of last week's trade, we are slightly under the 1.37 handle.

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Spain, Greece Receive Rating Upgrades

Spain and Greece sovereign ratings were upgraded on Friday by major rating agencies as remedial measures taken by both nations over the last few years started to support economic recovery and revamp fiscal positions.

 

Citing improved economic growth and competitiveness, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services raised the long-term sovereign ratings of Spain to 'BBB' from 'BBB-'. The 'stable' outlook on ratings suggest that the risks to the ratings remain balanced over the next two years.

 

Elsewhere, Fitch Ratings lifted Greece rating by one notch as the nation posted a primary surplus amid easing near-term sovereign liquidity risks. Although the ratings were raised to 'B' from 'B-', it still remain in junk territory.

 

Reflecting the effects of labor and other structural reforms, Spain's economy is set to grow more than previously estimated, S&P said. The agency upgraded the real growth projections for 2014-2016 to 1.6 percent from 1.2 percent.

 

S&P believes the recovering economy will support Spain's fiscal consolidation and help public debt to decline slowly as private debt continues to be gradually paid down.

 

Net export growth continues to be a major contributor to GDP. Nevertheless, S&P said the still very high debt levels in the economy will probably lead to an extended period of relatively subdued domestic demand.

 

The rating agency expects that recovering employment will contribute to improvements in Spain's fiscal position and the stabilization of financial system asset quality.

 

Fitch noted that Greece achieved a primary surplus in the general government account in 2013, a key target of the EU-IMF programme. The agency forecasts the adjusted primary surplus to rise further in 2014 to 1.4 percent of GDP.

 

Moreover, near-term sovereign liquidity risk has fallen and a better fiscal track record is being established. The government is not fully funded by EU and IMF lending over 2014-15 but there are several plausible options to bridge the funding gap.

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The European Commission demand the British must pay an extra £500M more for the additional Brussels spending.The timing of the request is awkward, immediately following the British vote for the European Parliament. In this election the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP or Ukip) easily beat both Labor and the Tories. Ukip is a Euroskeptic political party founded in 1993. The anti EU vote and the outraged response was not confined to the UK.

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The market is positioning for further downside and at 78.6% Fib level, 100% retracement is a big magnet. I expect 13475 to be hit before major uptrend resumption.

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The only thing i can say is that 1,36000 is defended well for about 6 days ... still waiting for some movement Up at least to 1,36700-136800 there are still atempts to do so.

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EURUSD not even going back to retrace any of Tuesday's daily candle.

 

Sometimes a lack of retrace means the move is extended, but I don't believe that to be the case in this scenario.

 

Best case for scenario for longs is it drops in a straight line from here to 1.35 and then see capitulation short covering, while retail starts to open shorts for themselves.

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Monday will probably see 1.3557 takes us back too 1.3533/29 then up too 1.3570 then that's the top of the move and will be shorted...... people be targeting double bottom of last move so 1.3512.. and that's likely to be S1 on daily.... others targeting last swing low of 1.3503 then others targeting the proper low at 1.3486

if 1.3486 breaks by even a fraction of a pip then not sure if will pullback or short immediately... aint got enough data on pro realtime but other charts suggest new short would be around 1.3537 if its going to work but if 1.3486 breaks by a fraction of a pip you will have shorters immediately at 1.3512 .

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After falling to take out the 13500 level, the EURO has been trying to make a comeback.

Some of the euro rally was probably the result of USD selling in front of the Feds monthly meeting. After the meeting Fed Chairman Yellen expressed reserved optimism. The US economy was making gains, in her opinion,, and the tapering of their monthly bond purchases would drop another $10B to 35B per month. Still, she conceded interest rates would remain low, and any rate increases were unlikely until the summer of 2015.

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Two weeks ago, the European Central Bank announced a series of measures to ease monetary policy and in doing they shifted the medium term outlook for the euro. Although the currency had been on a downtrend since early May, investors did not aggressively short euros until the central bank’s June 5th announcement. Not only did the ECB increase support to the economy but they also expressed their willingness to do more, making them one of the most dovish G7 central banks. Two weeks forward, EUR/USD stabilized above 1.35 as investors realized that even if the central bank is open to increasing stimulus, they won’t be doing so for at least another 2 months. As a smart central bank, they will want to see how the economy responds to the latest measures before taking further action. However even though that may be the case, next week’s busy Eurozone economic calendar is an important test for the euro because investors will be looking to the data to provide confirmation on the need for additional easing.

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3589 doing its thing still for the bulls and bear norm. but if for some reason we bounce from here to 3637/44 ish w/o breaking this weeks high. then make a LL of this weeks low. then the pa on a st scale will point to sub 3494.. i have support anticipated here 3494/86.. but a LL after, indicates deeper in the st to 3470 or more. in the scenario in this post. just speculation if we bounce now to 3637 and the bulls failure to make a HH. biased bears may do better to watch. even with a 350x LL bears may then be able to wait for 3637/44. the way it looks atm. of course bulls still have the ball st until. 3102 is still the norm unreached

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Did Last Week's Data Give Us Any Clues For The Euro's Direction?

 

It was a busy week for economic data from both Europe and the US, compressed into a holiday shortened week. The initial market judgement is that the constructive US NFP report was a far more decisive input than the Draghi's promise to take future measures, should last month's monetary changes fail to ignite an EU recovery.

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Eur/Usd has fallen significantly in the past two days and currently price is hovering just above support of 1.3500. After the fall from 1.3620 to 1.3520 in the past couple of days, today's Asian & London session has been quiet and price has been moving in a tight range of 20 - 25 pips. We continue to hold a bearish bias in this pair till next support zone of 1.3485 to 1.3475. On the upside, resistance is at 1.3670 - 1. 3700.

5aa7122defc61_eurusdjuly17th.thumb.jpg.c14c174dee3457261e99955bb85bbd5a.jpg

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From a technical perspective, 1.35 is less significant than the February 3rd low of 1.3477. However taking a look at the chart, today’s decline has taken EUR/USD below trend line support. If the pair breaks its 2014 low of 1.3477, the next stop could be the November low of 1.3295. However if it holds 1.3450 (we’ll give it a bit of flexibility), it could be back into the 1.35 to 1.37 range for the pair.

eurusd071714-405x249.png.6ebbfde0be000f230a4cce9205e3898d.png

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Looking at the Daily it does show that it was bought back up on Monday. Nice pin bar we could see a movement back up in the short term and looks like an easy 100 pip long IMO.

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