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EUR/USD Forecast March 17-21

EUR/USD had a successful week, rising to a new 2+ year high, overcoming obstacles.. Where is it headed now? Inflation data, Weidmann’s speech, German ZEW Economic Sentiment and EU Economic Summit are the main market-movers. Here is an outlook on the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

 

It seemed like smooth sailing for the common currency: fears about China didn’t really hurt it, and some global optimism sent the pair to a two year high. Yet all this didn’t last: when Draghi opened his mouth and tensions rose in the Russia – Ukraine conflict, the euro took a hit but eventually staged an impressive recovery to high ground. Can the euro break above 1.40 or is this already too much?

 

 

Inflation data: Monday, 10:00. Euro zone consumer prices plunged 1.1% in January, pulled down by a fall in non-energy industrial products, registering the fastest monthly drop ever recorded. Annual inflation remained at 0.8%, far below the European Central Bank’s target. Economists forecasted a price rise of 0.9% in January. Greece and Cyprus remained stuck in deflation. Only three countries in the bloc, Estonia, Latvia and Slovakia, saw a price increase in January. CPI is expected to edge up 0.8%, while Core CPI is predicted to gain 1.0%.

Jens Weidmann speaks: Monday, 15:00. Deutsche Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann will speak in Kiel. Weidmann supported ECB President, Mario Draghi’s view that economic recovery is moderate but still fragile and called the Euro-zone citizens to trust the ECB to handle monetary policy to achieve price stability.

German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 10:00. The ZEW survey of economic sentiment in Germany fell to 55.7 points in February, dropping 6 points from the previous month. The weak reading was influenced by uncertainties regarding the employment condition, US concerns that the current economic growth could lose momentum and emerging economies volatility. The ZEW survey is expected to decline to 52.3.

ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 10:00. Economic expectations in the euro zone, declined in February by 5.4 points to 68.5. Analysts expected a higher reading of 73.9. The decline in sentiment may attributed to concerns about U.S. economic recovery, and market volatility in emerging markets. Despite the relatively weak reading, ZEW President Clemens Fuest believes this decline in economic expectations is a temporary setback, since the majority of surveyed financial market experts remain optimistic. A further decline to 67.3 is expected now.

EU Economic Summit: Thursday. A European Union summit in Brussels will seek ways to enhance the European industrial base as a driver for economic employment growth. “The regulatory framework both at European and national levels must be made more conducive towards investment and innovation and the reassuring of manufacturing jobs,” the document adds, referring to a drive to reverse a trend of losing employment to other regions of the world. The summit, will also hold “a first policy debate on the framework for climate and energy in the period from 2020 to 2030 and agree on the way forward in terms of orientations and procedure.

 

EUR/USD Forecast March 17-21 | Forex Crunch

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FOMC Expected To Continue To Taper QE, Update Forward Guidance

Economists expect the Federal Reserve to cut another $10 billion from its monthly asset-purchase program at its two-day monetary-policy meeting, lowering its monthly bond buys to $55 billion.

 

The Federal Open Market Committee meets Tuesday and Wednesday, and it will be the first one overseen by new Fed Chair Janet Yellen. Traders will focus on the commentary that accompanies the decision, which is slated to be released Wednesday afternoon. Additionally, during this meeting, the Fed will release its new economic forecasts.

 

Fed watchers said it’s likely the FOMC will talk about the impact of the severe winter weather and the effect on the economy. Economic data from January and February were lower than anticipated and many analysts and economists blamed this on the wintry weather that has hit much of the U.S. Brown Brothers Harriman said the Fed will likely signal that growth is expected to rise in the coming months and quarters now that winter is nearly over.

That could change the Fed’s economic forecasts, BBH said.

 

The Fed “is likely to pare slightly this year's GDP (gross domestic product) forecast of 2.8-3.2%, which would simply recognize weaker (first quarter) activity, without changing its medium-term view. The unemployment forecast may also be tweaked lower. We would not expect the core PCE (personal consumption expenditures) forecasts to change,” BBH said.

 

Economists said financial and commodity markets will closely watch how the Fed modifies its forward guidance, especially as it relates to the monthly unemployment rate. The Labor Department said in the February nonfarm payrolls report that the unemployment rate is 6.7%. The Fed’s “threshold” for considering an increase in interest rate is 6.5%, and many economists said the central bank is likely to ditch that firm figure for something more nuanced. Since December 2012, the FOMC has said it wouldn’t raise the target for short-term interest rates until the medium-term outlook for inflation rose above 2.5% or the jobless rate fell to 6.5%.

 

“We expect it to drop the … thresholds, while maintaining other elements of the current forward guidance – including the notion that the committee still believes any increase in short-term rates is still a long way off,” said analysts at Nomura.

 

Gold News, Gold Market, Mining Companies, Silver News | Kitco News

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Fed may raise rates as soon as next spring, Yellen suggests

 

The Federal Reserve will probably end its massive bond-buying program this coming fall, and could start to raise interest rates around six months later, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said on Wednesday.

 

That's a somewhat more aggressive path toward higher rates than some investors had anticipated, and both U.S. stocks and bonds slumped. Futures traders now are pricing in a first rate hike as soon as April 2015.

 

"She certainly moved (the timetable) up a little bit and I don't think the market was expecting that at all because she is widely viewed as being more on the dovish side of the aisle than she is on the hawkish side," said Peter Kenny, CEO of Clearpool Group in New York.

 

In announcing its view on future rates after a two-day policy meeting, the Fed dropped a set of guideposts it was using to help the public anticipate when it would finally start bumping overnight borrowing costs up from zero.

 

Yellen used her first press conference as Fed chair to emphasize that rates will stay low for a while, rise only gradually, and could end up staying lower than normal "for some time" even after the economy regains its health given lasting scars from the financial crisis.

 

Yellen was at pains to say that dropping the 6.5 percent unemployment rate as a guideline in deciding when to raise rates did not represent a change in the Fed's policy intentions. The Fed said it would instead consider a wide range of economic indicators when deciding the future path of overnight rates.

 

She also said policymakers would be looking not only at how close inflation and unemployment are to the Fed's goals, but how fast, or slowly, those measures are approaching those goals.

 

The central bank noted in its statement that its embrace of easy money policies could continue even after the Fed achieves its goals of full employment and 2 percent inflation.

 

In a news conference Yellen said Fed officials cited "the residual impacts of the financial crisis" for this, with some noting "the potential growth rate of the economy may be lower at least for a time."

 

Even so, the majority of Fed policymakers expect overnight interest rates to rise in 2015, according to forecasts released by the Fed on Wednesday.

 

The unease in markets "might be a sign that people think Yellen will tighten sooner rather than later, or that inflation could come into the market if the Fed keeps rates low well past 6.5 percent (unemployment)," said Wayne Kaufman, chief market analyst at Rockwell Securities in New York.

 

The central bank proceeded with its well-telegraphed reductions to its massive bond-buying stimulus, announcing it would cut its monthly purchases of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities to $55 billion from $65 billion.

 

Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota dissented, saying that dropping the unemployment threshold could hurt the credibility of the Fed's commitment to return inflation to 2 percent.

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5 reasons for USD rally on the Fed decision

The third taper of bond buys was certainly expected and priced in. So was the removal of the 6.5% threshold in the Fed’s forward guidance. So, why did the US dollar enjoy a rally enjoy a strong rally that sent USD/CAD to multi year highs and EUR/USD below key support?

 

Here are 5 hawkish events that stirred the rally:

 

Lower unemployment forecasts: the big difference in the accompanying economic forecasts lies in the lowering of the unemployment forecasts: For 2014: 6.1-6.3% instead of 6.3% for 6.6%. And for 2015: 5.6-5.9% instead of 5.8-6.1%. Maximum employment is one of the Fed’s two mandates.

No change in inflation forecasts: for the Fed’s second mandate, core inflation, no excitements were recorded. 2014 is still expected to see 1.4 to 1.6%. 2015 is expected to have a core PCE inflation rate of 1.7 to 2% instead of 1.6 to 2% beforehand. This is very stable and quite healthy.

A dovish dissenter: During many of the Fed’s meetings, we had one hawkish dissenter. When we have a dovish one, this is a hawkish sign.Narayana Kocherlakota dissented to the dovish side, saying that the commitment regarding inflation is not strict enough.

Blaming the weather: The FOMC statement’s opening paragraph acknowledged the slower growth but immediately mentions the weather. This shows that the Fed is not too worried about the lower growth and probably sees weather as a bump and not as a game changer.

Rate hike hint: This may have been unintended, but it is critical. When asked about what “considerable time” means in relation to the period between ending QE and starting to raise rates, Yellen answered 6 months. QE is expected to end in around 7 months, at the October 29th meeting. 6 months later is April 2015. Though far from explicit, here we finally have less than vague expectations for a rate hike in the US, after long years of near zero rates.

 

 

Needless to say, the next moves depend on the data, but the Fed is certainly leaning to the hawkish side.

 

 

5 reasons for USD rally on the Fed decision | Forex Crunch

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EUR/USD Forecast March 24-28

EUR/USD was not able to conquer 1.40 and was eventually hit hard. Is this a temporary dip or a change of courseFlash manufacturing and services PMIs, German Ifo Business Climate and inflation data are the main market-movers this week. Here is an outlook on the main events ahead.

 

The disappointing ZEW economic sentiment from Germany only had a temporary effect, and it seemed that the euro could still move higher. But later came Janet Yellen: the Fed tapered bond buys once again and Yellen also released a comment about raising rates. The resulting dollar strength sent EUR/USD below uptrend support. The Russia – Ukraine crisis is humming in the background.

 

EUR/USD Forecast March 24-28 | Forex Crunch

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EUR/USD Forecast March 24-28

EUR/USD was not able to conquer 1.40 and was eventually hit hard. Is this a temporary dip or a change of courseFlash manufacturing and services PMIs, German Ifo Business Climate and inflation data are the main market-movers this week. Here is an outlook on the main events ahead.

 

The disappointing ZEW economic sentiment from Germany only had a temporary effect, and it seemed that the euro could still move higher. But later came Janet Yellen: the Fed tapered bond buys once again and Yellen also released a comment about raising rates. The resulting dollar strength sent EUR/USD below uptrend support. The Russia – Ukraine crisis is humming in the background.

 

EUR/USD Forecast March 24-28 | Forex Crunch

 

Hi,

 

We think it has more downside to go but that may not happen without a corrective recovery higher possibly towards the 1.3833 and the 1.3856 levels

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RE The Crisis in Ukraine :

 

 

As a line in an old song said, "breaking up is hard to do." There is no doubt the EU is more at risk should sanctions expand. A combined banking and energy crisis would quickly reverse their claim to an economic recovery. I wonder if the markets are hoping this crisis will merely vanish. If it does not vanish, the USD (EURUSD, FXE, EU:US, UUP, UDN) should continue this week's gain versus the euro.

 

 

BTW: BP owns a stake in the Russian state oil company Rosneft (RU:ROSN) It is rumored Rosneft is currently attempting to raise an additional $5B from BP.

 

This week's pending fundamentals which, in the US, includes the durable goods number, and the quarterly annualized GDP number estimated to be a respectable 2.7%, may serve the markets bulls well. Gradual growth is preferred. Then there will be no fear of a speed update for higher bank rates, or a higher USD which might harm global growth.

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Fed's Bullard says U.S. jobless rate expected to fall below six percent this year

The U.S. unemployment rate will fall below 6 percent by the end of this year, a Federal Reserve official said on Wednesday, offering a bullish view on the country's economy after central bank comments sent shock waves through financial markets last week.

 

James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, said that the outlook for the U.S. economy is "quite good," despite data from early in the year.

 

"The biggest thing is that unemployment has come down more quickly than expected," said Bullard, speaking on a panel at the annual Credit Suisse investor conference in Hong Kong.

 

He added later during a question and answer session that more progress is needed in the labor market before U.S. policymakers can consider raising interest rates.

 

Bullard is known to be one of the Fed's more hawkish policymakers. He previously advocated for a rate hike as early as 2014, a stance he appears to have backed away from.

 

U.S. monetary policy tightening took center stage last week after a two-day policy meeting, when the Fed said it expected to keep benchmark interest rates near zero for a "considerable time" after it wrapped up a bond-buying stimulus program, which it is widely expected to do toward the end of the year.

 

Fed's Bullard says U.S. jobless rate expected to fall below six percent this year | Reuters

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EUR/USD Forecast Apr 7-11

EUR/USD fell for the third consecutive week. Is this the beginning of a downtrend or just part of a necessary correction? German Industrial Production, trade balance, French Industrial Production, ECB Monthly Bulletin and the G20 meetings are the highlights of this week. Here is an outlook on the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

 

The ECB decided on another “no-change” in policy leaving the main lending rate at 0.25% despite multi-year low inflation but the tone was certainly different. Draghi put QE firmly on the agenda and mentioned the exchange rate several times. This rhetoric sent the euro down. The not so impressive US Non-Farm Payrolls was not enough to allow for a recovery.

 

EUR/USD Forecast Apr 7-11 | Forex Crunch

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More Wall Street Economists Now Expect The Fed To Hike Rates By June 2015

More Wall Street economists now believe the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in the first half of 2015, as evidence builds that the U.S. economy has regained some momentum lost during an unusually rough winter, a survey showed on Friday.

 

Eight of 18 U.S. primary dealers said they expected the U.S. central bank to increase its policy rate by the end of June next year, according to a poll conducted by Reuters among the Wall Street's top 22 firms that do business directly with the Fed.

 

A Reuters poll done three weeks earlier showed only four primary dealers anticipated a rate hike by the first half of 2015 despite comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen that suggested increases might come sooner.

 

Friday's solid March jobs report concluded a busy week of economic data that indicated the economy has thawed along with much of the country, where shoppers were reluctant to leave their homes and companies kept a lid on payrolls.

 

U.S. employers hired 192,000 workers last month, fewer than the 200,000 projected by economists polled by Reuters, the U.S. Labor Department said. It upwardly adjusted its January and February payrolls figures by a combined 37,000. Another key job measure, the monthly unemployment rate, held at 6.7 percent. Economists had expected a fall to 6.6 percent.

 

"The Fed will be very happy with this type of jobs report," said Jacob Oubina, senior economist at RBC Capital Markets in New York.

 

More Economists Expect Fed Rate Hike By June 2015 - Business Insider

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If you want to know where the euro is headed, look to Texas.

 

That’s the home of Prestige Economics LLC, the fewer-than-10-person researcher and consultancy that proved to be the most-accurate forecaster of the euro-dollar pair last quarter among more than 50 firms worldwide in data compiled by Bloomberg. Prestige was also No. 1 for the pound-dollar and dollar-Swiss franc, while coming in at No. 2 for euro-yen.

 

Texan Discovers Key to Euro Going Against Consensus: Currencies - Bloomberg

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Seems like FT and WSJ are heavily focusing on draghi comments yesterday... Both stories on the front page. Should be a nice gap down tomorrow, ukraine situation looks dicey again as well.

 

FT:

Mario Draghi has signalled that the European Central Bank is getting ready to unleash new unconventional monetary policy in a bid to fight low inflation.

Speaking after the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund in Washington on Saturday, the ECB president said the strengthening of the euro “requires further monetary stimulus”.

FT.com / Registration / Sign-up

 

WSJ:

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi on Saturday ratcheted up his warnings about the strong euro, saying a further rise in the exchange rate would trigger additional monetary easing to keep inflation from falling too low.

"A strengthening of the exchange rate requires further monetary stimulus. That is an important dimension for our price stability," Mr. Draghi said at a news conference during meetings of the International Monetary Fund.

Mr. Draghi's comments are notable because central bankers typically shy away from commenting on exchange rates set by the financial markets.

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/...&mg=reno64-wsj

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Same fo the Telegraph:

 

The week end edition of the London Telegraph reported Draghi was speaking about the euro's value at a Saturday meeting of the IMF. The Telegraph reported:

 

Draghi: ECB will unleash stimulus if euro strengthens further Central bank president says any additional strengthening of single currency would warrant non-standard measures such as quantitative easing.

 

Further strengthening of the euro will prompt the European Central Bank (ECB) to launch a fresh wave of stimulus in order to maintain its loose policy stance and fight low inflation, its president has said.

 

Mario Draghi said the single currency, which has appreciated by 14pc against the dollar since July 2012, had helped to push eurozone inflation down to a record low of 0.5pc in March.

 

Mr Draghi added that any further strengthening would warrant further action by the ECB, including non-standard measures such as quantitative easing.

 

However, Mr Draghi said the strength of the single currency had reduced eurozone inflation by between 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points. Inflation has dropped from 2.7pc in the first quarter of 2012 to a current level of just 0.5pc.

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Though i'm biased short, current price action is neither short nor long ... the pair is stuck, waiting for a catalyst to drive it somewhere?! How many times $1.38 was broken to the upside, only the pair fall down! The last time $1.34 was attacked, only price to bounce higher!

 

It's one of these situations, that you either wait for the direction to take place and follow - or you bet, with a 50/50 chance

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    • Brain Trend 2 Is a short term signals indicator. It is used for intraday trading. Brain Trend 2 identifies the short term trend using Williams percent R indicator and average true range. When a short term trend is confirmed by the indicator, it plots semaphores on the bar to show the trend. Bars with red boxes indicate downtrend and bars with blue boxes indicate uptrend.   When a trend is identified, open positions in the direction of the trend. When red boxes appear open short position. When blue boxes appear open long position. It is more effective when coupled with other indicators. A moving average can be used as a trend filter.  Set the moving average period to medium term or long term like 50 or 100.   BrainTrend2.zip
    • #EURUSD #ANALYSIS #Forex #followme #socialtrading The EUR/USD pair fails to hold on to recovery gains as it trades near 1.1070 ahead of the European session on Wednesday.   The US #IndustrialProduction and #CapacityUtilization failed to please the #USD buyers as better than forecast prints of the ZEW Economic Sentiment for Germany and the Eurozone gained major attention. Also adding to the pair’s strength was the market’s risk recovery after Saudi Arabian diplomats showed readiness to overcome the recent damages due to drone attack within few weeks. Furthermore, news of the New York #Fed injecting funds through repo market and trade-positive headlines concerning the US, China and Japan also tamed the earlier #risk-off momentum.   #Traders have been #cautious since the start of Wednesday with eyes on the US #FederalReserve’s monetary policy meeting announcements up from 18:00 GMT. However, fresh trade/political headlines help extend the latest risk-on. As a result, Asian stocks report gains and the US 10-year Treasury yield remain around 1.80% by the press time.   Considering the high probability of the US Federal Reserve’s 0.25% Fed #rate, investors will be less surprised unless the US central bank offers less/more or no rate change. As a result, details of the quarterly economic forecast, press conference by the Fed Chairman #Powell and Fed’s Monetary Policy Statement will be the key to predict near-term market moves. The European Central Bank (#ECB) has recently shown its dovish bias and hence any hawkish statement from the Federal Open Market Committee (#FOMC) could be harmful to the pair’s latest recovery.   On the economic calendar, final reading of August month Consumer Price Index (CPI) from the Eurozone and the US housing market numbers could offer intermediate moves ahead of the Fed decision.   #TechnicalAnalysis Not only a falling trend-line since late-June, at 1.1090, but the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) level of 1.1167 also could restrict pair’s near-term upside, which in-turn highlights 1.1100 and recent low surrounding 1.0925 as key supports.
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