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I sure hope the Retail Sales will take it out of this ranging movement. I guess market participants are pretty puzzled about what the next move should be after that initial surge...

 

for what it is worthing, it doesn't look like an impulsive move......looking for it now to break the 1.2750, but most likely will not move until Bernanke starts to testify this week

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the critical level shown by ^goldenapp is right.... and after poor NFP data where the U.S economy managed to add lesser than expected jobs in july, the major pairs rallied and EUR/USD gained around 90 points after which it closed above the critical level of 1.3265.... so technically it would remain bullish for short-term where its next target is 1.3310, breaking of which could take it to 1.3350...

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eur usd

 

We can see an ab=cd harmonic pattern in the H1 TF. We expect a decline for

the price if supply pressure shows up. This comment would be violated if 1.3460 level being broken above.

5aa711fab1ff8_eurusd.thumb.jpg.5c49491ac0dda300808ca487496fd868.jpg

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The pair for next week will likely to find support at 1.3298, Thursday's low, and resistance at 1.3452, Tuesday's high. Starting a short position above 1.34 I believe is a good idea

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For the first time in seven weeks the EURUSD (FXE UUP UDN) has had a decisive sell-off. After stumbling Wednesday, closing at about 1.3340, the slide continued today (Thursday), all the way down to 132.20.

 

The catalyst for the sell-off appeared to be good US economic data. The weekly first-time unemployment was as expected, 331K, and the Quarterly GDP (Annualized) was reported at 2.5% better the the 2.2% guess.

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The Eur/USD is becoming very unpredictable these days. I'll say it may go up in short term but no idea of what it'll be doing in the much longer term.

 

Indeed....funny because the pmi's in Europe were coming way better than expectations but I would say eurgbp flows are drving eurusd as well...recent Vodafone deal helps the pound on all pairs and that drags on the eurusd

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As i mention in my previous post, the euro managed to reach 1.3250 and closed the week at 1.3293 vs USD. An improving sentiment about hte euro currency probably will drive to higher levels with first target 1.3348.

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Fundamentals are unchanged, tapering is still out there somewhere, this high level is unsustainable in my opinion so fading the market with an expiration on Monday. ..

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The euro slide from 1.3568 high is still underway and there is a risk of deeper drowning towards 1.3410, strong resistance at 1.3520 a violation of that level will state, that the consolidation is over.

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EUR/USD: The euro acquired fresh support this morning after the European Central Bank (ECB) kept its interest rates unchanged and provided no insights that it was currently evaluating the viability of instigating any new stimulus measures. The US Dollar remained under pressure as the US government shutdown entered its third day.

 

The EUR/USD surged higher this morning before it was decisively rejected by an important resistance level. However, after rebounding against its middle Bollinger Band within the last few hours, the pair is now climbing higher again. As such, buy the EUR/USD if price breaks above 1.3640...

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EU is been sold heavily! if this baby keeps falling and daily/weekly candle close below 1.3480 it will be extremely bearish! i have to say i would really love to see this happening ......

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Common sense dictates looking for longs. I usually try not to trade on Friday, especially if situation is not clear and I’m already in nice profit through the week. There is few places to join the trend and I mainly will look for three scenarios. 1st – break out to the upside and retracement to 1.3680, then uptrend continuation. 2nd – correction to 1.3645 and from there move up. 3rd – weekness after break out to the upside and start of correction.

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euro looks ready to go parabolic, feels a lot like March/April 2011, extension into exhaustion -> monthly candle to stretch

maintaining >1.38 very bullish imo - ascending triangle sort of scenario

needs a catalyst however, German Ifo Business Climate tomorrow may provide the fuel

alternatively slow grind lower possible, short potential is limited..............

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eur usd

 

The price is inside an uptrend channel while fluctuating and we are witnessing an Inv ab=cd harmonic pattern. Its time will be fulfilled till Nov. 6th . we are expecting to see a growth if the ground is prepared as well.

pcm-fx.com/forums/

 

1383501708721.gif

Edited by roobin54

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EUR index 4H time frame presents a good long trade opportunity from the current chart pattern.

USD index 4H time frame shows the pair entering some sort of correction.

 

Taken together, when looking at EUR/USD, signs indicate that the up move from the lows could be a leading diagonal, there is a trade opportunity here to play EUR/USD to take out 1.38... (may coincide with FED releasing minutes).....

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scenario 1 not going past 3548, scenario 2 not going past 3580 scenario 3 going past both...

if scenario 3 happen, adding short every 100 pips up with 1 percent margin tp 50..

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EZ has 12-27% unemployment and only country showing any sign of life is Germany however fact that They lowered rates shows they are concern about recovery.EZ is not expected to get out of recession until 2017

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Even if the low inflation prints in the Eurozone and UK arent low enough to exactly inspire action from their respective central banks, there will still be similar money flows to those current coming out of Japan. As the USA starts to look better, and rates rise across the curve rise globally as we saw over the summer... US rates will rise faster than UK and Eurozone rates, becuase UK and Eurozone rates will remain anchored by the very low inflation.

 

Money will go to where the rates are the highest for the lowest risk... USD.

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