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After a gap lower opening this week in the EURUSD, the euro strengthened. Ironically, one of the reasons given for the recovery was optimism in Germany, partially attributed to the lower euro.

 

The combination of massive short positions in the euro, and long positions in the USD against all currencies in a holiday shortened week can be a set up for some surprise moves. While the global cash forex markets are not closed Thursday it is likely many traders in the US will be away from their screens. This can result in either very dull markets, or markets prone to erratic and exaggerated moves. Where there is risk, there is also opportunity for those with a plan.

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Most traders will be willing to get out of the market at the end of the day, as the volatility should pick up this morning. So rallies all the way up to the 1.2577 level will offer selling opportunities.

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Most traders will be willing to get out of the market at the end of the day, as the volatility should pick up this morning. So rallies all the way up to the 1.2577 level will offer selling opportunities.

 

Yeah I never hold positions overnight as my Hotforex applies negative swaps as well on EUR/USD. Intraday trading is far better if you are going to make short and small profits.

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As long as the EURUSD below 1.2660 area, I am still looking for selling opportunities. Only a breach above 1.2700 level will I consider for next buying opportunities.

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As long as the EURUSD below 1.2660 area, I am still looking for selling opportunities. Only a breach above 1.2700 level will I consider for next buying opportunities.

 

Agree. 12700 is the line in the sand. Above that I will look to buy bounces while reverting to a "neutral" bias.

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there is a chance that market overestimated the size of incoming QE. Draghi disappointed markets many times already and ECB interventions were mainly vocal than real. I am afraid that falling oil prices can hinder ECB from expanding with QE too much.

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Goldman Sachs forecasts EURUSD at 0.9 at the end of 2017:

 

“We are revising down our forecast further today, to 1.14, 1.11 and 1.08 in 3, 6 and 12 months (from 1.23, 1.20 and 1.15 before). We are also revising down our longer-term forecasts, bringing the end-2016 forecast to 1.00 (from 1.05) and that for end-2017 to 0.90 (from 1.00),”

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After the January free fall in the EURUSD, the pair has been trading in the 1.12 to 1.1350 area for over a week. Once the QE announcement was released and the results of the Greek election were known, the bear news was perhaps priced in the market. In addition there have been rumors of additional Swiss and Danish Bank intervention, both buying the euro.

 

Fundamentally there seems little to favor purchases of the euro. The European economy remains a laggard and the Greek problem is unsolved. Granted the cheaper euro will help going forward and the cheaper energy is a mixed blessing, helping the EU balance of payments, but weighing on EU deflation.

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EU hopes fading, but short term deal still possible. neither side seems to be showing signs of compromising. Already, German Finance Minister Schaeuble declared that there were no plans to discuss a new accord or give Greece an extension to its bailout funds. Even Eurogroup chairman Dijsselbloem, who’s been a staunch supporter of coming to a negotiated agreement on the Greek situation, noted that any solution would take some time, dashing hopes of a long-term fix today.

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It is quite rare to see a trend which lasts this long. Illustrating the intensity of the bear market, there has been very little time the market has traded above the 9 week SMA. However, since making the low under the 1.11 handle four weeks ago, the pair has traded higher in each of these periods. While the market is trading better, it is still trading beneath that average at about 1.1580.

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Opened A small SHORT position Just before close at 1.1847, Seeing this going DOWN to 1.10908 then UP

 

I think it may go up too. it is just too obvious you have to be short on that one, and we got a break out from the monthly that has not been retested yet.

eu_monhtly.thumb.png.a494bec8146b9ee3c22bbbc0dd2db502.png

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