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Loading up EURGBP longs after UK retail sales missed and Eurozone PMIs beat. In at 0.7925 SL at 0.7900. Targeting 0.8150.

 

 

Short positioning in the pair is pretty big and it looks possible that sentiment in both currencies could swing a bit in the other direction.

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– US Dollar Index: The long position in the DI grew marginally from 24K to 24.7K. Large spec dominate the trade in the DI and they hold 71.2% of the long side and 39.2% of the sell side. The small specs are a 4 ratio long.

 

– Euro (EUR/USD): Trade is the euro and the resultant OI was already large in the euro, but increased by over 10% to 397K. Most of this increase came from the large specs who increased their short position. They are now a 2.6 ratio short the euro. Trade in the spreading/option category also increased by 5.8K of delta adjusted positions. The total spec short position in the euro is up to 132K from 106.2K last week. Market action has rewarded the shorts.

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The ups and downs are bulls and bears fighting each other, the bears eventually lost because, they were exhausted and fresh momemtum buyers came in massively at 13385, bears got killed at 13400, 13408, 13435....each successive bear losses triggered massive stoplosses to bring us where we are....

 

i think next week, can see a retest of 13408 or 13400 if we are lucky.

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I would love to short 1.3401 during asian session, hoping it gets there.

 

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Spot On !!!

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4H is the one that makes me a bit unsure, looking only at that we can see a W formation that should target at least 1,3450 and 1,3510 in extension, but price got rejected quite early from 1,3432, not a brutal rejection but still with som force. This together with the daily gives me reason to suspect a new test of the lower regions or even lower as we are moving away to slow from the bottom. Hourly gives bearish divergence , it's not all bearish as it could be seen as hourly is gathering force to that extra bit higher.

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Euro Specs have extended their short position in the euro taking it to almost 183K from last week's 157.2K. Large specs are a 3.5 ratio short, while the mall spec are a 2.1 short. Two week ago the short was 132K. The interesting thing about the additional 50K of shorts is this failed to take the market much lower. Who are the buyers? Spreading/options are 9.9% of the total OI which is up to 450K. The spec short in the euro is now over 3 Trillion USD.

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The euro has support at 1.3330, but a break there leads to a test of 1.3290 support from November of last year followed by a possible double bottom test at 1.3100. On the upside only a move through the 1.3500 level negates the bearish bias and puts the pair back to neutral stance

EURUSD_08_11_14.jpg.92bcc7292f27144bd19dd11b9020171c.jpg

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On Thursday August 14 there will be a flood of data pouring from the EU, mostly pertaining to the anticipated rate of growth. The estimate for EU GDP growth is forecast to drop to 0.7% from the previous estimate of 0.9%. With the big spec short, there is that possibility of a short squeeze at any time. Still, the outlook for the eurozone economy remains bleak. Unless there is a dramatic expansion of the money supply, which is bearish the euro, their economy will continue to deflate, which also seems negative.

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EUR/USD forecast for the week of August 18, 2014,

The EUR/USD pair initially fell during the course of the week, but for the third week in a row found support below, and ended up forming a hammer. Because of that, we believe that the Euro is about to get a bounce, not only because of this chart, but because of some other EUR related charts. With that, we think that we are heading to the 1.35 handle first, and then will have to make more significant decisions at that level. In the meantime, we would not be interested in selling this market until we get below the 1.33 level.

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The EUR/USD continues to suffer from the down gap which is now in its third day of not being filled. Generally such technical conditions are very bearish but the first up day in nearly a week suggests that the EUR/USD may fill the gap soon and possibly retake 1.3250 area which would alleviate some of the bearish pressure. A break below 1.3150 however would open a new round of selling towards 1.3100

EURUSD_08_25_14.jpg.d3f719422a05dc0c256126203f913033.jpg

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I think that if it breaks through the resistance at 1.3200 it might reach 1.3250, but after that I too think it will probably start falling again and reach 1.3100.

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It appears of the market is in fact going to head to the 1.30 level given enough time. I also think that the real support is down at the 1.28 level, so without a doubt we are very bearish of this market.

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today is the euro's biggest one day fall since late 2011 - the height of the eurozone crisis

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today is the euro's biggest one day fall since late 2011 - the height of the eurozone crisis

 

The market responded negatively to ECB decision to cut the interest rate from 0.15% to 0.05 , we have 200 pip fall on the EUR/USD in 1 day and i think there is more fall to come. Same goes for GBP/USD. Next week is gonna be further bearish.

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Today’s decision by the ECB to increase monetary stimulus triggered the largest one-day decline in the EUR/USD since 2011. The central bank widened the gap between EZ and U.S. monetary policy by cutting interest rates another 10bp and pre-announcing an ABS program. By opting for the one-two punch of rate cut plus ABS purchases the central bank sent a very strong message to the market about how they are worried about the outlook for the Eurozone economy and committed to doing whatever it takes to promote inflation and growth even if it means introducing new measures when previous programs have not even been rolled out. The ECB made it clear that they maintain an easing bias whereas Fed President Mester confirmed that the U.S. asset purchase program will end in October. Non-farm payrolls are scheduled for release tomorrow and chances are job growth accelerated in August. We are looking for healthy job growth with payrolls between 230k to 250k but as long as payrolls exceed 150k, which is significantly lower than the 230k consensus forecast, the Fed will remain on course to end QE. With the divergence in Eurozone and U.S. data and monetary policy expected to widen further this month due to the prospect of a stronger NFP report and positive FOMC meeting, I expect EUR/USD to drop by at least another 200 pips to 1.2750.

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This monthly/weekly downtrend taking us all the way to 1.25 possibly below to 1.22 which will be a weekly support. This trend is expected to continue through the rest of the year or rate change whichever comes first. Hold ur seats tight for a bearish ride..:D

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