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TheNegotiator

Are You Ready for the Truth?

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You know as well as I do that traders read and read in their attempts to find that magic formula or secret ingredient that'll change them from being an "also ran" to a "champion trader". I like trading books and genuinely new ideas and ways of thinking in the market. I think it's important to challenge yourself and constantly evolve. But my thoughts are more about inexperienced traders and their lack of direction or understanding of what might truly make the difference to their trading. I have seen so many books dismissed as rubbish or out of touch with today's markets and again, many which people believe to be great which I think "Hmm, I didn't think that was such a great book. Maybe it's me?"

 

Do some people have an innate ability to understand which path they need to tread? Do some people just strike lucky? Or does a trader need to come full circle before deeply understanding the benefits which they might personally glean from a certain text?

Edited by TheNegotiator

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I'm not sure what exactly you're trying to say with your post.. but I have an idea because I

can relate.

 

Having been a successful poker player, I can pretty easily weed out the good advice from the bad. And let me tell you, 90% of poker advice is bad. 90% of poker instructional books are crap written by losing players who wouldn't stand a chance in a game with real professionals. And the people with the firmest opinions are usually in those 90%. I think trading is probably similar.

 

So as I attempt to learn trading, I am constantly filtering through books, posts, and other material trying to find some solid ground to base a foundation on. So far, I've yet to find anything that I feel is really useful. Now, as you're saying, maybe I'm not 'ready' to understand some books and missing the point, but I don't think so. Ultimately I need to follow the path that I think and feel is appropriate. I haven't found that path yet in the markets. I just don't think many people have a clue (just as with poker). The closest thing that has grabbed my attn is dbphoenix's price/volume stuff spread across this site, t2w, and et. But even that doesn't fully satisfy me. I reckon most people are just gambling in the markets with no real edge. I don't want to waste my time doing that. I've spoken with one prop trader through email who I believe actually knows what he's doing, but the communication is sparse, i think because he doesn't want to give anything away.

 

So despite my being a newbie in the markets, I feel fairly confident with my answers below.

 

 

Do some people have an innate ability to understand which path they need to tread?

 

Some might, most probably don't. Like I mentioned above I think that I do, but its not because I'm special, but rather just because of my background in similar fields.

 

Do some people just strike lucky?

 

Yes, but its unlikely the luck will last as things change. That is of course, unless they hit and run and get out before reality strikes.

 

Or does a trader need to come full circle before deeply understanding the benefits which they might personally glean from a certain text?

 

Usually this will be the case.

Edited by mikew

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There is no truth only a multitude of possibilities.

If you want answers then you are asking the wrong questions.

 

(dedicated as a tribute to Zdo)

 

most texts are 90% rubbish and could probably be summarised in 6 pages, but who wants to read the latest novel "the Titanic"

 

ship hits iceberg, ships sinks, many people die. the end.

 

If its all a journey then maybe thats part of the appeal of searching for the truth.....people like the search rather than the results.

 

"Do some people have an innate ability to understand which path they need to tread?"

Do some people just strike lucky? Or does a trader need to come full circle before deeply understanding the benefits which they might personally glean from a certain text?"

 

could all this be summarised as???

......some people get lucky, or have an innate ability to get from A to Z without the time others take.

 

Personally I like re-reading things, and at different times gleam different things, as I am not the same person I was when I was 20, and dont expect to be the same person I am now when I hit 60. Yet your point is for inexperienced traders, and yet too many dismiss the simple things that are often repeated time and time and time again.....so it does not matter what you tell them.

 

Trading rule 1.

you are likely to loose money.....great where do I sign up? WTF......

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...

 

"Do some people have an innate ability to understand which path they need to tread?"

Do some people just strike lucky? Or does a trader need to come full circle before deeply understanding the benefits which they might personally glean from a certain text?"

 

...

 

Personally I like re-reading things, and at different times gleam different things, as I am not the same person I was when I was 20, and dont expect to be the same person I am now when I hit 60. Yet your point is for inexperienced traders, and yet too many dismiss the simple things that are often repeated time and time and time again.....so it does not matter what you tell them.

 

 

 

Yes, I think the questions above refer to people who have not yet found the right path.

 

The fact, that you like to re-read things is a different thing. You re-read them (I guess) not because you did not understand them or their importance, but it's quite the opposite. You re-read them because you know that this is how it works and you want to ingrain it into your brain or look at it again from a different angle.

 

And nobody said that the right path has to be complex ;) In fact, I believe that the right path in most aspects of life is simple. Some very intelligent people often don't get it, as they tend to overcomplicate things. And that's for sure not the right path... (some things ARE, of course, complex... but too much intelligence, or better, intelligence without pragmatism can hurt... :crap:)

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Yes, I think the questions above refer to people who have not yet found the right path.

 

The fact, that you like to re-read things is a different thing. You re-read them (I guess) not because you did not understand them or their importance, but it's quite the opposite. You re-read them because you know that this is how it works and you want to ingrain it into your brain or look at it again from a different angle.

 

And nobody said that the right path has to be complex ;) In fact, I believe that the right path in most aspects of life is simple. Some very intelligent people often don't get it, as they tend to overcomplicate things. And that's for sure not the right path... (some things ARE, of course, complex... but too much intelligence, or better, intelligence without pragmatism can hurt... :crap:)

 

The goal is to train your mind not to freak based on emotions (fear and greed). I am looking for books which are helpful with training my mind not to freak.

Systems and strategies are dime and dozens. It is not that hard to find an entry and profitable exit or to learn someone's trading methodology. None of these will work though, until I am an emotional mess. If I don't learn to be present I will pass on all the luck and the trading set ups along the way. For me the luckiest traders are the ones who somehow figured (with books or personal nature or instinct) to keep at bay their emotions and stay focused on the market.

 

Yes, the right path is super simple but hard as hell.

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The goal is to train your mind not to freak based on emotions (fear and greed). I am looking for books which are helpful with training my mind not to freak.

Systems and strategies are dime and dozens. It is not that hard to find an entry and profitable exit or to learn someone's trading methodology. None of these will work though, until I am an emotional mess. If I don't learn to be present I will pass on all the luck and the trading set ups along the way. For me the luckiest traders are the ones who somehow figured (with books or personal nature or instinct) to keep at bay their emotions and stay focused on the market.

 

Yes, the right path is super simple but hard as hell.

 

 

The discussion here might be interesting to you (but you saw it already, I guess):

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/psychology/12958-illusion-control-first-step-emotional-sobriety.html

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...Some very intelligent people often don't get it, as they tend to overcomplicate things. And that's for sure not the right path... (some things ARE, of course, complex... but too much intelligence, or better, intelligence without pragmatism can hurt... :crap:)

 

that is right...if you are not a disciplined-strong willed person, your iq can't save you

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I Second Mike.

 

Each, needs to follow the method, he/she is comfortable with. I myself am a price action fan ... whereas a more successful trader friend of mine has his screen full of indicators, and yet makes more money then i do.

 

The only way i could make any sense out of it is, to "Assume", that such successful traders have spent enough time with their respective methods , to have made it a habit of recognizing their trading signals, patterns, etc... the subconscious mind has been trained to filter out the bad trades from the good trades, to such a extent that they do not realize that its more then the trading signal or indicators working , they have unconsciously picked up subtle hints of those danger signs. This maybe the edge.

 

And i have realized, i can't get a edge, unless i spend more time - on screen, in front of my setups and doing actual trading. It's a long painfull journey , but have read enough books and posts now ... i aint getting any holy grail, i need to make one myself.

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The discussion here might be interesting to you (but you saw it already, I guess):

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/psychology/12958-illusion-control-first-step-emotional-sobriety.html

 

The other thread stresses on psychology - this thread is more practical wants to find the answer!!!

 

From my experience the answer is unique for each trader - the holly grail (the answer) is within each of us and is different for each of us. Reading books about systems, strategies, methodologies, money management, psychology is an effort from outside to figure what is inside. Over time I learned what kind markets, trading styles, money management etc. keep you in the comfort zone = calm and present. And, yes, I tried and failed with many systems, indicators, methodologies, money management and so on.

 

The big question for me is - am I aware of my emotions? My emotions are intuitive reflection of what the market is doing. If I am bored most likely the market is not giving me what I am waiting for. Am I going to trade when bored? When I am afraid most likely I don't understand what's going on - would I be willing to bet money before I learn what's going on?

 

And, yes, there are those perfect conditions (according to my trading style) which I wouldn't be able to notice and exploit if I was busy being bored or afraid or willing to see things which are not there. So, my goal is to learn how to stay calm and focused so I can observe the market for what it really is. Simple but hard.

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I'm not sure what exactly you're trying to say with your post.. but I have an idea because I

can relate.

 

Having been a successful poker player, I can pretty easily weed out the good advice from the bad. And let me tell you, 90% of poker advice is bad. 90% of poker instructional books are crap written by losing players who wouldn't stand a chance in a game with real professionals. And the people with the firmest opinions are usually in those 90%. I think trading is probably similar.

 

So as I attempt to learn trading, I am constantly filtering through books, posts, and other material trying to find some solid ground to base a foundation on. So far, I've yet to find anything that I feel is really useful. Now, as you're saying, maybe I'm not 'ready' to understand some books and missing the point, but I don't think so. Ultimately I need to follow the path that I think and feel is appropriate. I haven't found that path yet in the markets. I just don't think many people have a clue (just as with poker). The closest thing that has grabbed my attn is dbphoenix's price/volume stuff spread across this site, t2w, and et. But even that doesn't fully satisfy me. I reckon most people are just gambling in the markets with no real edge. I don't want to waste my time doing that. I've spoken with one prop trader through email who I believe actually knows what he's doing, but the communication is sparse, i think because he doesn't want to give anything away.

........

 

The scarcity model of economics has gripped many people, including myself sometimes. But all anyone has to offer you is their story. The truth that most traders are looking for is usually right in front of them. We are so trained to seek recognition and approval from peers/others, it's amazing. The irony of the whole thing is that you must test for yourself anyway any method or strategy to see if it will work for you. There is a shortcut to this testing that I will summarize: figure out what's true about the market first....then you can do what you want.

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Having been a successful poker player, I can pretty easily weed out the good advice from the bad. And let me tell you, 90% of poker advice is bad. 90% of poker instructional books are crap written by losing players who wouldn't stand a chance in a game with real professionals. And the people with the firmest opinions are usually in those 90%. I think trading is probably similar.

 

 

Poker is a zero sum game and nearly identical to trading. If you can, on balance, take money from poker tables, then you'll do well trading once you stop trying to find the holy grail.

 

A major difference is the odds. In poker there will be times when you know you have the nuts. Then it is a matter of making sure that you get other players to commit as much money as possible in the hand. There is no such time in trading. Traders will convey that they "feel" they have the nuts, but that's just not the case. However, you will experience situations where other traders continue to commit funds to your winning trade. You need to learn to identify those situations and remain in the trade when that is occurring.

 

A major similarity between poker and trading is that in each I do not gain an edge at the table or the market until I can understanding who I playing or trading against. In poker it is easy to figure out the odds of hitting a hand. The real art is learning how each player is going to play. What, if any, their physical tells are, if they are tight or conservative, if poker is a narcotic, if they know how to play, the size of their stack, if they won that stack or brought it there, etc. Some players I can play rags against and win and other players I know the best thing to do is fold unless i have the nuts. I learn who i can get money from and who I can't. No player can beat every player and I am not a player that can beat everyone I play and I know it

 

Similarly in trading, you need to trade against people who you know you can get money from. If you enter a trade, say, short, who do you expect to pay you in order for you to make money? Are they present? Can you take money from other short term highly capitalized traders if you are trading against them? Do you want to take a trade against a long term trader who sees the S&P as units of 100 points? Do you want to be on the same side as a long term trader if other traders who attempt to prey on long term traders are present?

 

We are trading traders. The traders who are trading at the same time as you will completely impact the pretty chart pattern that has formed. Just like in poker, you will do infinitely better if you learn how to play the players at your table.

 

I will be in Vegas from Tuesday to Friday for 3 solid nights of poker. It is how I relax.

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Poker is a zero sum game and nearly identical to trading. If you can, on balance, take money from poker tables, then you'll do well trading once you stop trying to find the holy grail.

 

...

 

 

 

Hm... I would say "very similar", instead of "nearly identical"... The major difference is - and that's why I would not sign the second sentence above - in trading, the rules of the game are not clear. In poker you have clearly defined rules how the game works (52 cards, ranks of winning hands, etc.). Hence, you have many good books about poker strategy (mike has a different view on this). The game is already explored. Of course, it's application is not easy as you have to adapt to the players at your table. But this you learn with experience.

 

Trading in contrast is far more complex. There are no rules defined. And to make it more complex, everyone has to find the rules which work for him or her. That takes some intelligence and hard work to figure out.

 

The good thing though is, once figured out "how trading works", the edge can be much much bigger than in poker.

 

 

 

A major similarity between poker and trading is that in each I do not gain an edge at the table or the market until I can understanding who I playing or trading against.

 

...

 

Similarly in trading, you need to trade against people who you know you can get money from. If you enter a trade, say, short, who do you expect to pay you in order for you to make money? Are they present? Can you take money from other short term highly capitalized traders if you are trading against them? Do you want to take a trade against a long term trader who sees the S&P as units of 100 points? Do you want to be on the same side as a long term trader if other traders who attempt to prey on long term traders are present?

 

We are trading traders. The traders who are trading at the same time as you will completely impact the pretty chart pattern that has formed. Just like in poker, you will do infinitely better if you learn how to play the players at your table.

 

 

I agree that we trade traders. But you cannot identify individual players in the trading game ("fund XYZ is covering its shorts now"). However, I agree that these are important questions to ask yourself and at least think about groups of opponents, e.g. the locals, hedge funds and how they approach the market in general. But you cannot explore individual strategies of them. It's just general concepts you have to be aware of.

 

In fact, that's a big difference to poker in my opinion. In trading, you are very much limited to choose your opponents. You are more or less forced to trade against professionals. In poker, you can choose the table you sit at or the hands you play against certain players.

 

Otherwise, I would be interested in how you do it in trading :) Or are you trading individual stocks? There it might be possible, seeing who is bidding, etc. I am trading only ES. That might explain our different viewpoints here.

 

 

 

 

I will be in Vegas from Tuesday to Friday for 3 solid nights of poker. It is how I relax.

 

 

 

That's cool. I like the game too, but it's not relaxing for me, as I want to make money... it's hard work. Poker is - for me - harder than trading. You have to stay alert and watch and think about the other players for such long periods of time. It's very exhausting for me.

 

In trading I just wait for my setups to occur and I then take a trade. No need to sit in front of the computer nonstop for 10 hours a day with my methodology. A lot easier... :)

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Hm... I would say "very similar", instead of "nearly identical"... The major difference is - and that's why I would not sign the second sentence above - in trading, the rules of the game are not clear. In poker you have clearly defined rules how the game works (52 cards, ranks of winning hands, etc.). Hence, you have many good books about poker strategy (mike has a different view on this). The game is already explored. Of course, it's application is not easy as you have to adapt to the players at your table. But this you learn with experience.

 

Trading in contrast is far more complex. There are no rules defined. And to make it more complex, everyone has to find the rules which work for him or her. That takes some intelligence and hard work to figure out.

 

The good thing though is, once figured out "how trading works", the edge can be much much bigger than in poker.

 

 

 

 

I agree that we trade traders. But you cannot identify individual players in the trading game ("fund XYZ is covering its shorts now"). However, I agree that these are important questions to ask yourself and at least think about groups of opponents, e.g. the locals, hedge funds and how they approach the market in general. But you cannot explore individual strategies of them. It's just general concepts you have to be aware of.

 

In fact, that's a big difference to poker in my opinion. In trading, you are very much limited to choose your opponents. You are more or less forced to trade against professionals. In poker, you can choose the table you sit at or the hands you play against certain players.

 

Otherwise, I would be interested in how you do it in trading :) Or are you trading individual stocks? There it might be possible, seeing who is bidding, etc. I am trading only ES. That might explain our different viewpoints here.

 

 

 

 

 

That's cool. I like the game too, but it's not relaxing for me, as I want to make money... it's hard work. Poker is - for me - harder than trading. You have to stay alert and watch and think about the other players for such long periods of time. It's very exhausting for me.

 

In trading I just wait for my setups to occur and I then take a trade. No need to sit in front of the computer nonstop for 10 hours a day with my methodology. A lot easier... :)

 

When I say "who" I do not mean specific traders. I identify who by size and strategy. From that perspective you can identify who is in the market. They leave track marks. Learn to read the track marks. It is art and not science. As in poker, there are times that I will simply not take a trade in a market because I am confident that I cannot win because of who I suspect is present. So, 10-20 "set ups" can occur, and I will stubbornly wait on the sidelines. I have a good idea of who I shouldn't try to slug it out with and I have a good idea of when they are there. Other times I will take many trades and losers, because I do know there is a good chance for me to get paid. I am not suggesting it is easy and I am not suggesting that I am right all the time.

 

I am sure that most will agree that certain traders are attracted to certain types of market activity and other traders are not. To win at trading we need to catch people trading in places where they should not be trading and we need to avoid trading in placed where we should not be trading.

 

I enjoy marathon poker. I do it a few times a year. Its nice to get away from everything and spend some alone time with the most important person on earth. I will bet that my blood pressure is lower when I am playing than when I am not.

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Good discussion, I'm definitely on the same page as you guys

 

 

Similarly in trading, you need to trade against people who you know you can get money from. If you enter a trade, say, short, who do you expect to pay you in order for you to make money? Are they present? Can you take money from other short term highly capitalized traders if you are trading against them? Do you want to take a trade against a long term trader who sees the S&P as units of 100 points? Do you want to be on the same side as a long term trader if other traders who attempt to prey on long term traders are present?

 

Yes, and these questions are very very difficult to answer for me. Are there people that can answer these? Is it even possible? Or is everyone in the markets just gambling?

 

Playing the players seems infinitely harder in trading because you can never know who is on the other side of your trade. Instead of playing against one person, you are playing against the collective.

 

The major difference is - in trading, the rules of the game are not clear. In poker you have clearly defined rules how the game works

 

Trading in contrast is far more complex. There are no rules defined.

 

exactly.. So how does one go about figuring out "how trading works" ?

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MikeW : Not sure what you are seeking ..... In my personal opinion, you disservice yourself if you treat trading as "You vs Them" battle.

 

A short term trend for me (im a day trader) , would be a pullback for some other trader. This difference in perspective is what creates market (buyers and sellers). I can only hope to "assume" what the current market leaning is -- and latch onto it. Today is reality, tomorrow is but a dream.

 

The reason i mention this is, i stopped guessing who is on the other side of the table. Maybe, its because of the time frame i trade in which is in minutes.

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exactly.. So how does one go about figuring out "how trading works" ?

 

A good book on market micro structure. I rather like Larry Harris 'Trading and Exchanges: Market Microstructure for Practitioners'. From what others have said to me you might find it heavy going, I really enjoyed it. Perhaps check it out in a library before shelling out or there used to be a couple of free chapters from an early draught on the interwebz too.

 

This is not a how to trade book its a pretty dry textbook. It really does lay out who the (surprisingly numerous) types of players are and how they operate.

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exactly.. So how does one go about figuring out "how trading works" ?

 

The market is composed by millions of living and breathing entities with different ideas and emotions. The total sum of all activities on the market is the 'market workings". Who is able to know the sum of all at any given moment!!!?! Learning how the market works is never ending and not fully practical because the players and the conditions are always changing. At best it will stunt you realizing how complex the game is.

 

The task should be - how applying of what I know about the market will bring me money according to my life style, trading style and financial state?

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The market is composed by millions of living and breathing entities with different ideas and emotions.

 

Having said that a lot of participants can be placed in categories that have pretty similar objectives (or 'ideas'). Interestingly quite a few of these are not motivated by profit in a purely speculative sense. These participants will have similar modus operandi as other participants of the same category (though different to other categories).

 

It is mind boggling (to me) that people start trading without having a rudimentary understanding of how the exchange they trade on works let alone a 'market'.

 

I agree that the game is pretty complex but if you break it down into chunks (by participant objective is just one way) it need not be that daunting. Of course understanding how things work and profiting from that knowledge are quite distinct things :)

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...

 

exactly.. So how does one go about figuring out "how trading works" ?

 

 

 

For me, it meant reading tons of books but also a lot of trial and error.

 

All the info you need is out there. Unfortunately, it is not in one book but scattered over many many books. And sometimes you have to also be able to "read between the lines". And as I said, what works for me will not necessarily work for you. You have to be able to put the pieces of the puzzle together for yourself.

 

Start to build some hypotheses about the markets. How you understand them and how it makes sense to you. There are many different viewpoints available which can help as a start. Find those to which you can relate. But start to think further about it. I haven't found one approach which did not have any flaws, at least from my point of view. So, be critical in everything you read and think for yourself.

 

Hence, I did not copy any method 100%. I've took only the parts which made sense to me and combined them with other aspects from somewhere else which made also sense to me. Of course, you have to be careful that the overall combination still makes sense. By the way, when I talk about methodology I am not only talking about entry and exit "signals" but also risk parameters and money management. It is all one interrelated system that must fit your personality.

 

At the end I've came up with a methodology which works for me, but about which I've never read anywhere else. However, the individual components of this methodology are not new, but "stolen" from here and there. Their combination and application is unique and fits my personality.

 

That's what I had in mind when I said, it takes some intelligence (but more common sense) and hard work to figure out. But that's where your edge is...

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For me, it meant reading tons of books but also a lot of trial and error.

 

...

 

 

 

What comes also to my mind is, if you put in so much effort to understand yourself and develop a customized method based on your own beliefs then you also don't have any problems with emotions causing you to do stupid things in your trading. There are no conflicts within you as "the final product" came out of yourself.

 

This came to my mind, as we have this interesting discussion regarding emotions in this thread:

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/psychology/12958-illusion-control-first-step-emotional-sobriety.html

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What comes also to my mind is, if you put in so much effort to understand yourself and develop a customized method based on your own beliefs then you also don't have any problems with emotions causing you to do stupid things in your trading. There are no conflicts within you as "the final product" came out of yourself.

 

This came to my mind, as we have this interesting discussion regarding emotions in this thread:

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/psychology/12958-illusion-control-first-step-emotional-sobriety.html

 

I did stupid things during the first few years of my trading even though I developed my own methods.

Reading and learning part is of course a must but living in it changes many things..At least it did for me...

Trading is like many profession...what you learn at school is just a beginning...

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...

 

Reading and learning part is of course a must but living in it changes many things

 

...

 

Trading is like many profession...what you learn at school is just a beginning...

 

 

You are right. Maybe the difference is that I did practice my learnings immediately in the markets although they were not yet fully developed. It was very costly though and I would not recommend it to anyone unless you have a lot of money to lose... But due to my approach I think I've developed it pretty fast... I paid the price for that, of course...

 

Good analogy with the school!

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A good book on market micro structure. I rather like Larry Harris 'Trading and Exchanges: Market Microstructure for Practitioners'. From what others have said to me you might find it heavy going, I really enjoyed it. Perhaps check it out in a library before shelling out or there used to be a couple of free chapters from an early draught on the interwebz too.

 

Yeah thanks, already started reading this. Really good

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    • You should never give in to the rumors as it could lead you to bankruptcy if it isn't true.
    • Yeah, and you should never stop learning. If you wish to survive in the Forex Market, the only way to do it is by learning all the time.
    • Date : 1st December 2021. Market Update – December 1 – Taper gets a boost & Transitory gets “retired”. Powell “retires” Transitory in light of Omicron & surprisingly suggests faster taper – Stocks tank, Dollar& Yields rise on faster tightening expectations.   USD (USDIndex 95.90) back down from leap to 96.60 on Powell testimony. Saw fresh wave of risk aversion as Treasuries sold off, yields spiked (particularly the 2yr) , Stocks fell significantly with USA100 down over -2.4% (APPL bucked the trend +3.16%) USA500 -1.90% (-88pts) 4567 & USA30 off 652 pts or -1.86%. Consumer confidence saw a slump in the headline, and a rise to a 13-year high in the inflation component. The Chicago PMI fell to 61.8. Home prices increased to fresh record peaks. US Yields 10-year rates were down over 7 bps to 1.41% before closing at 1.443% before recovring to 1.468% now. Asian Markets – Equities – Topix and Nikkei are currently up 0.4%, the Hang Seng bounced 1.1% and the CSI 300 is up 0.1%. The ASX, which outperformed yesterday, dropped back -0.3%. Data over night – Japan’s manufacturing PMI came in stronger than expected and while China’s private PMI reading signalled stagnation at 49.9, that was compensated somewhat by the stronger than expected official manufacturing PMI released yesterday. AUD GDP was not as bad as expected -1.9% vs -2.7% & 0.7% last time. USOil – continues under pressure, down to $64.08 (14-week lows) yesterday – recovered to test $68.00 today – expectations continue to grow that OPEC+, will put on hold plans to add 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) of supply in January at their meeting tomorrow. Gold finally some intra-day volatility – Powell surprise spiked to $1808 – before testing $1770 with a couple of hours, back to $1788 now. FX markets – Yen rallied USDJPY dipped to 112.50, back to 113.40 now, EURUSD now 1.1326 & Cable steadied to 1.3300-1.3330. European Open – December 10-yr Bund future down -11 ticks at 172.26, slightly outperforming versus Treasury futures. Central bankers may be getting more nervous about inflation outlook, but Omicron clearly is clouding over growth outlook & in Europe at least that will boost the arguments of the cautious camp at the central banks. US yields remain firmly below the levels seen before the new virus variant hit the headlines & sentiment is likely to remain jittery, even if stocks are set to back up from yesterday’s lows, with DAX & FTSE 100 future posting gains of 0.9% and 0.7% respectively & a 1.4% jump in the NASDAQ leading US futures higher. Data releases today kicked off with a big miss for German Retail sales (-0.3% vs 1.0%), higher UK house prices & firmer CPI from CHF. Today – PMIs (EZ & UK),US Markit Final Manufacturing PMIs, US ADP and ISM Manufacturing PMI, JTC and OPEC meetings, BoE’s Bailey and Fed’s Powell & Yellen testify. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.60%) Risk-sensitive currencies remain volatile, from a slide to 76.65 yesterday, today a rally to 77.80. Currently MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram over 0 and rising, RSI dipping from 70.00 at 58, Stochastic remain OB. H1 ATR 0.172, Daily 0.84. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date : 30th November 2021. Market Update – November 30– Stocks at ups & downs. Omicron remains in focus and warnings that it will leave current vaccines far less effective and that it will take time to modify and produce new ones has seen markets adjusting growth forecasts and central bank projections.   USD (USDIndex 96.00 up from 95.92 low) saw a fresh wave of risk aversion as Treasuries sold off, but cautiously with only a modest back up in yields, & Stocks bounced significantly with the USA100 jumping over 2% intraday with IT a big winner. It closed with a 1.88% gain, with the USA500 1.3% firmer, and the USA30 up 0.68%. Wall Street stocks closed higher as investors were hopeful that the Omicron coronavirus variant would not lead to lockdowns after reassurance from US President Joe Biden. Moderna’s CEO told the FT that existing vaccines will be less effective and that it may take months before modified vaccines are available at scale. #Moderna +12.73% yesterday. US Yields 10- and 30-year rates were up just over 3 bps to 1.51% and 1.859%, respectively, with the 2-year 1bps higher at 0.508% The 10-year is currently corrected -3.9 bp to 1.46%, but it is still in negative territory, at -1.05% on Tuesday, keeping gold’s opportunity cost low. Equities – Topix and Nikkei are down -1.0% and -1.6% respectively, Hang Seng lost -2.3%, the CSI 300 -0.6%, while the ASX outperformed with a modest gain of 0.2%. USOil – down by 2%, drifted to $66.73 – after FT cast doubt on the efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines against the Omicron – expectations are growing that OPEC+, will put on hold plans to add 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) of supply in January. Gold spiked to $1795 – World Health Organization said on Monday carried a very high risk of infection surges. #TWTR was UP 12% pre-market on news Dorsey was leaving as CEO – it closed DOWN 2.74%. The USA100 rose+1.88%. FX markets – Yen rallied (a new flight to safety), Aussie and kiwi slide. USDJPY at 112.94, EURUSD now 1.1326 & Cable steadied to 1.3300-1.3330. European Open – The December 10-year Bund future is up 46 ticks, Treasury futures are outperforming and in cash markets the US 10-year rate has corrected -3.9 bp to 1.46% amid a fresh wave of risk aversion. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are down -1.5% and -1.1% respectively, while a -1.1% drop in the Dow Jones is leading US futures lower. In FX markets both EUR and GBP gained against the Dollar. EGB yields had moved higher against the background of improving risk appetite and a jump in German inflation yesterday, but while Eurozone HICP today is likely to exceed forecasts, central bankers have already been out in force to play down the importance of the number for the central bank outlook and rate expectations. Virus developments will also help to take the sting out of the number. Today – German labour market data, EU Inflation, Canadian GDP and US Consumer confidence are due today. Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen are due to testify before the US Senate Banking Committee at 15:00 GMT. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-0.68%) Risk-sensitive currencies slid and safe havens gained. AUDJPY dropped to 80 lows (S2). Currently MAs point rightwards, MACD signal line & histogram below 0, RSI rising above 30 but Stochastic OS. Hence a mixed picture intraday. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date : 29th November 2021. Market Update – November 29 – Omicron dominates sentiment. USD (USDIndex 96.30) recovers from Fridays slump (95.98), Stocks lost over –2.2% in thin half-day trading, Oil FUTS lost –13%, Gold slumped and Yields tanked (10-yr 1.482%) on a safe haven (JPY & CHF bid) risk off day. (and a strange carry trade bid for EUR). Weekend news, as Countries block flights and tighten restricts, but first Omicron cases in SA appear mild and hospitalizations have not spiked, has seen a bounce in sentiment and Asian markets. Pfizer suggested it would take 100 days to adapt new vaccine, if required. US Yields 10yr trades up 5.1 bp at 1.52%, after Friday’s slump. Equities – tanked in thin and short day on Friday USA500 -106.84 (-2.27%) at 45941 – USA500.F trades higher at 4639. USOil – collapsed to $67.08 – now up nearly $4 at $71.00. OPEC+ have delayed this weeks meeting by 2 days & likely to delay planned January production increases. Gold spiked under $1780, has bounced to $1795 but struggles to recoup $1800   FX markets – EURUSD now 1.1270, after a +125pip rally on Friday, USDJPY now 113.36, from 115.50 to 113.00 on Friday & Cable back to 1.3325. Overnight – JPY Retail Sales recover but miss expectations (0.9% vs 1.2% & -0.5% last time). European Open – The December 10-year Bund future is down -27 ticks, US futures are also in the red & the US 10-year rate is up 5.1 bp at 1.52%. Stock markets remained under pressure during the Asian part of the session, but DAX and FTSE 100 futures are up 1.2% and 1.3% respectively and a 1.2% rise in the NASDAQ is leading US futures higher. A part reversal of Friday’s flows then as virus developments remain in focus. Travel restrictions are making a come back and the services sector in particular is facing fresh pain, but as Lagarde suggested over the weekend, the impact of Omicron is unlikely to throw economies back to the situation at the start of the pandemic, meaning the overall situation has not really changed. We continue to see the ECB on course to end PEPP purchases on time in March next year, although developments will add to the arguments of those who want to keep the flexibility on the distribution of asset purchases at least for future emergencies. The BoE meanwhile may be postponing the planned rate hike into next year. Today – German regional and national CPIs, Eurozone Consumer Confidence (final), US Pending Home Sales, ECB’s de Guindos, Schnabel, Lagarde, Fed’s Williams, Powell. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) CADCHF (1.00%) The risk-off collapse on Friday 0.7400-0.7200 has recovered to 0.7280. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram rising but still below 0 line, RSI 53.80 & rising H1 ATR 0.0018, Daily ATR 0.0062. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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