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Do Or Die

Divergence Trading Strategy- Advanced

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Hi,

 

This follows from the RS- Internal thread.

 

I have been able to code the classic divergences to a satisfactory level without a future looking formula. The peculiarity of this method is that it detects a divergence before the second consecutive peak/trough actually occurs on chart (anticipatory discovery). This eliminates the huge lag in decision making caused by waiting to confirm the second peak/trough. See this chart:

attachment.php?attachmentid=26836&stc=1&d=1323333376

 

Most codes that I've seen around either use a future looking formula like zig-zag and/or wait for the confirmation of second peak/trough. By the time the second consecutive pivot is confirmed, market has already moved away by few bars. In V-shaped pivots, the move is already over if one goes by the traditional way of comparing two peaks on prices vs. an oscillator.

 

More charts:

attachment.php?attachmentid=26835&stc=1&d=1323333376

attachment.php?attachmentid=26837&stc=1&d=1323333376

attachment.php?attachmentid=26838&stc=1&d=1323333376

 

BTW, the 'advanced' word in title is more of a cliche; the strategy is actually basic (conceptual); i.e. mark opportunity when a stock seems to move lower while it's internal relative strength actually increases.

 

I will be calling some signals live in this thread, so it will also serve the purpose of a journal, to improve the strategy.

AAPL.thumb.png.16c0d7ce7ed56cd6015e8565a14fe6dc.png

5aa710ba4f0fa_ibmzoom.thumb.png.7ba3286cf4d4399726c07ed4bdd89021.png

IBM.thumb.png.206ece6e28784d626ba277e67dd0e1f1.png

AET.thumb.png.45f98de80fd6b352d6bfd912092e85dd.png

Edited by Do Or Die

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Earlier detection of RSI divergence also helps in keeping tighter stop. So it helps in both reducing the risk and maximizing potential reward. I use the most recent pivot high, bar high or support as stop loss.

 

Shorts triggered in VRSN, DGX, AET, CMS, EOG, ETN, NSC, SLB, FDX.

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RSI is still completely based on price. So the divergence is between raw price and a means of measuring price. Divergences that only look at price do not consider the forces that drive price.

 

More reliabe divergeces are the ones between price and the buying and selling volumes that propel price.

 

The chart below shows a session low in the ES where there was an obvious lower low in price but at the same time there was a higher low in the indicator of buying a selling strength and that the higher low in the indicator actually came before the lower low in price.

 

tpt615.jpg

 

More Price/Balance of Trade Divergences:

 

tpt605.jpg

 

 

tpt609.jpg

 

 

nnt2.jpg

 

 

tpt598.jpg

 

 

tpt599.jpg

 

 

Cheers,

 

UrmaBlume

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The point is that price is not the best predictor of price and that trade imbalance is what drives price. Thus divergence between raw price movements and the forces that drive price stand to deliver a more reliable signal than divergence between price and just another measure of price.

 

Measures of divergence between price and RSI, MACD and Stochastic are not really so much divergences as a matter of process and settings on the same input.

 

However divergences between price and indicators based on order flow/balance of trade with price as no part of their calculation measure a divergence between price and what drives price. A much more reliable indicator with a greater depth of information.

 

The herd uses RSI, MACD and Stochastics and for using those original, state of the art tools and techniques the herd is rewarded as blind, unthinking, uncreative followers should be rewarded.

 

Information = Equity

 

If your information is the same as everybody else's then expect to have the same result as most everybody else and we all know what that is.

 

UrmaBlume

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Hello,I think you have written a lot about the 'herd mentality' and your 'proprietary' indicator. So I asked you to log a live trade record (in another thread).thanks.

 

I thought the topic here was "Divergene Trading Strategy - Advanced."

 

My point is that divergence trading using RSI, MACD or Stochastic is hardly advanced and has been known and used by the herd for decades with herd type results.

 

As to a live trade record - its your thread so why not post one.

 

My post is about Divergence Trading and discusses divergence between price and the force that propels price instead of the difference between 2 different measures of price which is really no true divergence at all.

 

I have mentioned no product, service or site here. My posts have been on topic and so should your replies.

 

The topic here is Divergence Trading and I say that a Divergence/Difference between price and the forces that drive price is truer measure of divergence than a difference between price and just another measure of price.

 

UrmaBlume

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I thought the topic here was "Divergene Trading Strategy - Advanced."

 

My point is that divergence trading using RSI, MACD or Stochastic is hardly advanced and has been known and used by the herd for decades with herd type results.

 

Good to know that you read the title. I wish so much that you also read the first few lines of post before hurrying to promote your indicator.

As to a live trade record - its your thread so why not post one.

ROFL.

 

Amazing.

 

All the signals I posted are in profit. I will post live signals, which are a good proxy for my analytical methods. I do not need to post actual trades because I'm not and do not ever intend to solicit money for indicators or money management.

 

I will leave you now to re-think before attempting another off-topic post.

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Trade Records and whether or not I am a vendor are hardly to topic. Yes, indeed, I do run a software company and I have paid TL for a sponsored thread where I discuss my products. Here, in this discussion of Divergences, you have made much mention of that - I have made none.

 

My premise is that Divvergences that note RSI, MACD & Stochastic are old news and have been used ineffectively for decades by public/retail traders who don't seem to be able to see beyond the sameO, sameO.

 

The second part of that premise, still on the topic of divergence, is that measures of divergence between price and indicators that consider the buying and selling volumes/forces that propel price offers a much more reliable indication of both divergence and pending change.

 

In numbers, a very, very small percentage of total traders make money long term. Also that same very small percentage of traders make a very, very big percentage of the total money that is made.

 

My money bet is that of that very small percentage of those who make all the real money in this game are using Price/RSI divergences. What a huge laugh you would get if you took that approach to any profitable, tech-based trading or hedge fund operation today.

 

How say you?

 

UrmaBlume

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Trade Records and whether or not I am a vendor are hardly to topic.

Since you asked, you have posted historical charts with colorful indicator. You are promoting a particular indicator, which is only available on payments. Unlike you, I have taken the pain to explain my method in great detail.

 

What a huge laugh you would get if you took that approach to any profitable, tech-based trading or hedge fund operation today.

 

FYI, there are thousands of vendors on internet who claim their indicators are 'scientific' using all the 'scientific' terminology. Apparently many also claim to successfully pick the tops and bottom, similar to your posted charts. How many call their trades live? How many have guts to register as CTA and stop relying on income from selling indicators? I've come across only one DISFA Global. Goodluck in your career.

 

In any case, I will try to ignore any off topic posts, and concentrate back on trading :cool:

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There are many indicators both free and for sale that read order flow and the balance of trade - not just mine.

 

I say that divergences between price and the forces that drive price are more useful than divergences between price and just another calculation of price.

 

So, if the topic here is divergence as a strategy then which do you think should be more useful - price compared to price or price compared to the forces that drive price.

 

Readers here are more interested in learning better sources of trade decision support information than they are hearing you complaining about me being in the software business.

 

Everybody already knows about divergences between price and RSI, MACD and Stochastic - far fewer know about divergences between price and order flow.

 

If the whole purpose of Trader's Laboratory is the rational disucssion of trading techniques and technologies, then I propose this question to you and other readers here

 

Which form of divergence seems to offer more reliable/useful trade decision support information:

 

Divergences/differences between price and a recalculation of price or

 

Divergences/differences between price and the buying and selling volumes that

propel/motivate price?

 

No reason to get mad or feel threatened - Here I have merely put forth both a premise and a question, both of which are completely on topic.

 

UrmaBlume

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If the whole purpose of Trader's Laboratory is the rational disucssion of trading techniques and technologies, then I propose this question to you and other readers here

 

Which form of divergence seems to offer more reliable/useful trade decision support information:

 

Divergences/differences between price and a recalculation of price or

 

Divergences/differences between price and the buying and selling volumes that

propel/motivate price?

 

 

Let me repeat it (perhaps) fourth time icon10.gif

 

I am maintaining a log here about the strategy which you call 'herd mentality'.

 

You go ahead and log live trades for whatever you feel is the greater truth.

 

Let PnL speak louder than charts.

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posting a picture of a 10 pt run- took 6.5 out of it- from today from 11:51 est. This is my entry chart so you cant see the whole move on this chart. also will leave discussion of what the lines on chart are out of it. key is you see the dvg from the thick blue line. Dvg is based on price and volume not oscillators. Top bars are price.

5aa710ba8f654_dvgtradedecember.thumb.jpg.e2cd97df9c6844e5ebf07ab65cd55226.jpg

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posting a picture of a 10 pt run- took 6.5 out of it- from today from 11:51 est. This is my entry chart so you cant see the whole move on this chart.

 

LOL, more historical charts. Strange why people shy away from logging a live track record. One more and I will dump this thread to start another in Traders Log section.

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One more and I will dump this thread to start another in Traders Log section.

 

Well said. The title of the thread implies it is to be a discussion about divergences and trading strategies related to divergences, if not and it is to just be a log of your trades you should have said so.

 

Yet still the question remains:

 

"Which form of divergence seems to offer more reliable/useful trade decision support information:

 

Divergences/differences between price and a recalculation of price or

 

Divergences/differences between price and the buying and selling volumes that

propel/motivate price?"

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Actually I mentioned in the first post that this thread is for maintaining log of live signals.But apparently you did not read that in a hurry to post charts of your 'proprietary' indicator.

 

Yet, the question still remains:

How many call their trades live? How many have guts to register as CTA and stop relying on income from selling indicators? I've come across only one DISFA Global. Goodluck in your career.

 

Historical charts with mysterious 'holy grail' indicators form the perfect recipe to trap newbies icon10.gif

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LOL, more historical charts. Strange why people shy away from logging a live track record. One more and I will dump this thread to start another in Traders Log section.

 

It seems to me that people feel like they will lose something more than money if they post live trades. I have tried endlessly to get others to post trades. My feeling is that if you are going to say you are capable of doing something, then you should be willing to show it.

 

I did it in the S&P 500 short term trading log ( I think that is the name) and I do recommend it. You will feel a bit vulnerable, but that feeling passes and as your ego gets tamed. A tamed ego is important to a trader.

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Continued from the starting posts...

 

dgx, aet, cms, etn, nsc, slb, fdx, are in favor.

 

eog and etn somewhat dangerous.

 

No long signals, yet. All trades on daily charts only, because they can be conveniently posted in non-market hours. If feasible, I will try to post maybe few on intraday time frame such as 2-minute.

 

PS: Do not post in this thread the following, you are always free to start your own thread:

1. Charts with mysterious black-box indicators

2. Claims about profitability of a method without log of live trades

3. Please read the starting post, inclusive of these sentences:

"BTW, the 'advanced' word in title is more of a cliche"...

"I will be calling some signals live in this thread, so it will also serve the purpose of a journal..."

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First I apologize. I thought this was a thread on discussing divergence trading. I thought that the traders log section was for people posting a log of their trades and trading method. My mistake.

 

Second I posted because I agree with Urma about methods of reading divergence that do not depend upon oscillators like RSI etc.

 

Third using delta candles to read divergence is hardly black box and I am willing to bet there are other good traders on this forum that use delta candles the same way I do.

 

Fourth I have been running a free skype room for 18 months where I share my trades live and other share theirs as well. The room has about 30 to 40 members maybe more so there are plenty of folks that can attest to my live trading.

 

Fifth what good is a log other than an ego massage. Open or join a skype room and call your trades as they happen so the world can see in real time the entries and exit. Posting a log is just another way of past posting.

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First, if someone *really* wants to teach me something useful I would willfully bow in respect.

 

Second, it is usually a good practice in forums to read someone's post before replying. In the case something is not clear, straightforward attacking shows the insecurity of the poster. My method of marking a divergence, as explained previously, cannot be found on internet or textbooks. In any case if it gives some the right to call it 'laughable' and 'herd mentality', I'll let my live log speak who is laughable here.

 

Third, you made a small post with a chart that had no labels. "key is you see the dvg from the thick blue line." How do you suppose for me to learn about the blue line? and how to assume delta candles?

 

Fourth, I'm done running a private forum for strictly professional traders. I'm done running chat rooms before that. And I think this stuff is totally off-topic to this thread.

 

Fifth, it is usually a good practice in forums to read someone's post before replying. In the case something is not clear, straightforward attacking shows the insecurity of the poster. I used the word 'live' along with tradelog every time. Posting within minutes of signal generation is irrelevant if working on daily time frame. For example, the two short calls on AAPL mentioned here http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/stock-trading-laboratory/10662-stocks-model-2.html lack hindsight completely. Similarly the signals I mentioned in this thread are supposed to be carried for weeks, (that is called daily time frame), so they are credible enough even if posted after market hours.

 

PS: Do not post in this thread the following, you are always free to start your own thread:

1. Charts with mysterious black-box indicators

2. Claims about profitability of a method without log of live trades

3. Please read the starting post, inclusive of these sentences:

"BTW, the 'advanced' word in title is more of a cliche"...

"I will be calling some signals live in this thread, so it will also serve the purpose of a journal..."

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Do Or Die,

 

It's very easy to stop the arguing or debates (depending upon how it's looked at) via asking the forum manager to change your thread titled to the following...

 

RSI Divergence Trading Strategy (Live Calls Only)

 

or

 

RSI Divergence Trading Strategy (Real-Time Trades Only)

 

I say that because when I read the titled and then I see the discussion...it's a little confusing because your first message post seems as if you're the one making live calls and that there's "no requirement" for others to make live calls.

 

Edit - I enjoy reading threads with live calls (real-time trades or real-time price action discusions)...it's just as useful or arguably more useful than hindsight analysis.

 

Out of curiosity, how do you select which stocks to monitor for RSI Divergence trade signals. Meaning, do you follow a specific type of stock and only watch those stocks for RSI divergence setups. ???

Edited by wrbtrader

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Actually I thought the same for a moment, but gave up on the idea immediately because the title does not gives anyone the right to call strategy useless. Also, I do not censor discussions without live calls, but if someone is promoting a method religiously, he should provide a credible trade log. Refer to MightyMouse's post, there was similar post from Tams deleted for being blunt.

 

I'm running the scan for divergence on SnP 500 symbols only; days on which there are 5 or more signals are preferred.

 

As per my username, 'Do Or Die'; challenges inspire me, and short-term failures motivate to improve long-term strategy. So loving all the 'arguments' :)

 

PS: Do not post in this thread the following, you are always free to start your own thread:

1. Charts with mysterious black-box indicators

2. Claims about profitability of a method without log of live trades

3. Please read the starting post, inclusive of these sentences:

"BTW, the 'advanced' word in title is more of a cliche"...

"I will be calling some signals live in this thread, so it will also serve the purpose of a journal..."

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First I apologize. I thought this was a thread on discussing divergence trading. I thought that the traders log section was for people posting a log of their trades and trading method. My mistake.

 

Second I posted because I agree with Urma about methods of reading divergence that do not depend upon oscillators like RSI etc.

 

Third using delta candles to read divergence is hardly black box and I am willing to bet there are other good traders on this forum that use delta candles the same way I do.

 

Fourth I have been running a free skype room for 18 months where I share my trades live and other share theirs as well. The room has about 30 to 40 members maybe more so there are plenty of folks that can attest to my live trading.

 

Fifth what good is a log other than an ego massage. Open or join a skype room and call your trades as they happen so the world can see in real time the entries and exit. Posting a log is just another way of past posting.

 

 

Very well said Hunter.

 

Delta or my moving window of order flow are hardly mysterious black box indicators. While they haven't been around as long as RSI, MACD & Stochastic, many traders are starting to find they improve the efficacy of thier trading and offer more setups than merely spotting divergences.

 

It may be that the resistance to discussing anything other that price/price divergences is because the topic is out of the OP's depth. Price/Price divergences which are not real divergences at all have been around forever and discarded by those that have suffered the cost of trading them.

 

Price/Price divegences are hardly divergence because how can price diverge from itself. Divergence between price and buying and selling volumes is another matter and can be a very effective means of noting either reduced or increasing strength behind price.

 

Price/Price divergence advanced? Hardly. There is indeed a place for logs and that's where this guy should post his "advanced divergence trading strategy."

 

UrmaBlume

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@URMA Would you mind posting some charts showing examples of where your divergence worked and regular price divergence did not work please.

 

Wow, more historical charts for the mysterious black box indicator.

 

The indicator for which Mr. Vendor cannot share code or make live calls.

 

PS: Do not post in this thread the following, you are always free to start your own thread:

1. Charts with mysterious black-box indicators

2. Claims about profitability of a method without log of live trades

3. Please read the starting post, inclusive of these sentences:

"BTW, the 'advanced' word in title is more of a cliche"...

"I will be calling some signals live in this thread, so it will also serve the purpose of a journal..."

Edited by Do Or Die

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    • Yeah, and you should never stop learning. If you wish to survive in the Forex Market, the only way to do it is by learning all the time.
    • Date : 1st December 2021. Market Update – December 1 – Taper gets a boost & Transitory gets “retired”. Powell “retires” Transitory in light of Omicron & surprisingly suggests faster taper – Stocks tank, Dollar& Yields rise on faster tightening expectations.   USD (USDIndex 95.90) back down from leap to 96.60 on Powell testimony. Saw fresh wave of risk aversion as Treasuries sold off, yields spiked (particularly the 2yr) , Stocks fell significantly with USA100 down over -2.4% (APPL bucked the trend +3.16%) USA500 -1.90% (-88pts) 4567 & USA30 off 652 pts or -1.86%. Consumer confidence saw a slump in the headline, and a rise to a 13-year high in the inflation component. The Chicago PMI fell to 61.8. Home prices increased to fresh record peaks. US Yields 10-year rates were down over 7 bps to 1.41% before closing at 1.443% before recovring to 1.468% now. Asian Markets – Equities – Topix and Nikkei are currently up 0.4%, the Hang Seng bounced 1.1% and the CSI 300 is up 0.1%. The ASX, which outperformed yesterday, dropped back -0.3%. Data over night – Japan’s manufacturing PMI came in stronger than expected and while China’s private PMI reading signalled stagnation at 49.9, that was compensated somewhat by the stronger than expected official manufacturing PMI released yesterday. AUD GDP was not as bad as expected -1.9% vs -2.7% & 0.7% last time. USOil – continues under pressure, down to $64.08 (14-week lows) yesterday – recovered to test $68.00 today – expectations continue to grow that OPEC+, will put on hold plans to add 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) of supply in January at their meeting tomorrow. Gold finally some intra-day volatility – Powell surprise spiked to $1808 – before testing $1770 with a couple of hours, back to $1788 now. FX markets – Yen rallied USDJPY dipped to 112.50, back to 113.40 now, EURUSD now 1.1326 & Cable steadied to 1.3300-1.3330. European Open – December 10-yr Bund future down -11 ticks at 172.26, slightly outperforming versus Treasury futures. Central bankers may be getting more nervous about inflation outlook, but Omicron clearly is clouding over growth outlook & in Europe at least that will boost the arguments of the cautious camp at the central banks. US yields remain firmly below the levels seen before the new virus variant hit the headlines & sentiment is likely to remain jittery, even if stocks are set to back up from yesterday’s lows, with DAX & FTSE 100 future posting gains of 0.9% and 0.7% respectively & a 1.4% jump in the NASDAQ leading US futures higher. Data releases today kicked off with a big miss for German Retail sales (-0.3% vs 1.0%), higher UK house prices & firmer CPI from CHF. Today – PMIs (EZ & UK),US Markit Final Manufacturing PMIs, US ADP and ISM Manufacturing PMI, JTC and OPEC meetings, BoE’s Bailey and Fed’s Powell & Yellen testify. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.60%) Risk-sensitive currencies remain volatile, from a slide to 76.65 yesterday, today a rally to 77.80. Currently MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram over 0 and rising, RSI dipping from 70.00 at 58, Stochastic remain OB. H1 ATR 0.172, Daily 0.84. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date : 30th November 2021. Market Update – November 30– Stocks at ups & downs. Omicron remains in focus and warnings that it will leave current vaccines far less effective and that it will take time to modify and produce new ones has seen markets adjusting growth forecasts and central bank projections.   USD (USDIndex 96.00 up from 95.92 low) saw a fresh wave of risk aversion as Treasuries sold off, but cautiously with only a modest back up in yields, & Stocks bounced significantly with the USA100 jumping over 2% intraday with IT a big winner. It closed with a 1.88% gain, with the USA500 1.3% firmer, and the USA30 up 0.68%. Wall Street stocks closed higher as investors were hopeful that the Omicron coronavirus variant would not lead to lockdowns after reassurance from US President Joe Biden. Moderna’s CEO told the FT that existing vaccines will be less effective and that it may take months before modified vaccines are available at scale. #Moderna +12.73% yesterday. US Yields 10- and 30-year rates were up just over 3 bps to 1.51% and 1.859%, respectively, with the 2-year 1bps higher at 0.508% The 10-year is currently corrected -3.9 bp to 1.46%, but it is still in negative territory, at -1.05% on Tuesday, keeping gold’s opportunity cost low. Equities – Topix and Nikkei are down -1.0% and -1.6% respectively, Hang Seng lost -2.3%, the CSI 300 -0.6%, while the ASX outperformed with a modest gain of 0.2%. USOil – down by 2%, drifted to $66.73 – after FT cast doubt on the efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines against the Omicron – expectations are growing that OPEC+, will put on hold plans to add 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) of supply in January. Gold spiked to $1795 – World Health Organization said on Monday carried a very high risk of infection surges. #TWTR was UP 12% pre-market on news Dorsey was leaving as CEO – it closed DOWN 2.74%. The USA100 rose+1.88%. FX markets – Yen rallied (a new flight to safety), Aussie and kiwi slide. USDJPY at 112.94, EURUSD now 1.1326 & Cable steadied to 1.3300-1.3330. European Open – The December 10-year Bund future is up 46 ticks, Treasury futures are outperforming and in cash markets the US 10-year rate has corrected -3.9 bp to 1.46% amid a fresh wave of risk aversion. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are down -1.5% and -1.1% respectively, while a -1.1% drop in the Dow Jones is leading US futures lower. In FX markets both EUR and GBP gained against the Dollar. EGB yields had moved higher against the background of improving risk appetite and a jump in German inflation yesterday, but while Eurozone HICP today is likely to exceed forecasts, central bankers have already been out in force to play down the importance of the number for the central bank outlook and rate expectations. Virus developments will also help to take the sting out of the number. Today – German labour market data, EU Inflation, Canadian GDP and US Consumer confidence are due today. Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen are due to testify before the US Senate Banking Committee at 15:00 GMT. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-0.68%) Risk-sensitive currencies slid and safe havens gained. AUDJPY dropped to 80 lows (S2). Currently MAs point rightwards, MACD signal line & histogram below 0, RSI rising above 30 but Stochastic OS. Hence a mixed picture intraday. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date : 29th November 2021. Market Update – November 29 – Omicron dominates sentiment. USD (USDIndex 96.30) recovers from Fridays slump (95.98), Stocks lost over –2.2% in thin half-day trading, Oil FUTS lost –13%, Gold slumped and Yields tanked (10-yr 1.482%) on a safe haven (JPY & CHF bid) risk off day. (and a strange carry trade bid for EUR). Weekend news, as Countries block flights and tighten restricts, but first Omicron cases in SA appear mild and hospitalizations have not spiked, has seen a bounce in sentiment and Asian markets. Pfizer suggested it would take 100 days to adapt new vaccine, if required. US Yields 10yr trades up 5.1 bp at 1.52%, after Friday’s slump. Equities – tanked in thin and short day on Friday USA500 -106.84 (-2.27%) at 45941 – USA500.F trades higher at 4639. USOil – collapsed to $67.08 – now up nearly $4 at $71.00. OPEC+ have delayed this weeks meeting by 2 days & likely to delay planned January production increases. Gold spiked under $1780, has bounced to $1795 but struggles to recoup $1800   FX markets – EURUSD now 1.1270, after a +125pip rally on Friday, USDJPY now 113.36, from 115.50 to 113.00 on Friday & Cable back to 1.3325. Overnight – JPY Retail Sales recover but miss expectations (0.9% vs 1.2% & -0.5% last time). European Open – The December 10-year Bund future is down -27 ticks, US futures are also in the red & the US 10-year rate is up 5.1 bp at 1.52%. Stock markets remained under pressure during the Asian part of the session, but DAX and FTSE 100 futures are up 1.2% and 1.3% respectively and a 1.2% rise in the NASDAQ is leading US futures higher. A part reversal of Friday’s flows then as virus developments remain in focus. Travel restrictions are making a come back and the services sector in particular is facing fresh pain, but as Lagarde suggested over the weekend, the impact of Omicron is unlikely to throw economies back to the situation at the start of the pandemic, meaning the overall situation has not really changed. We continue to see the ECB on course to end PEPP purchases on time in March next year, although developments will add to the arguments of those who want to keep the flexibility on the distribution of asset purchases at least for future emergencies. The BoE meanwhile may be postponing the planned rate hike into next year. Today – German regional and national CPIs, Eurozone Consumer Confidence (final), US Pending Home Sales, ECB’s de Guindos, Schnabel, Lagarde, Fed’s Williams, Powell. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) CADCHF (1.00%) The risk-off collapse on Friday 0.7400-0.7200 has recovered to 0.7280. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram rising but still below 0 line, RSI 53.80 & rising H1 ATR 0.0018, Daily ATR 0.0062. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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