Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Recommended Posts

My chart for 10/7/2010.

Thanks for viewing my charts, pointing out mistakes and steering me to the right direction.

 

Look at your chart at the beginning of your annotations. In a previous post, you indicated how to arrive at Point Two. Do your annotations reflect this same assertion? Review your Point Three Annotations. Do your Gaussians show how you answered my previous post?

 

Now go to the thin lines.

 

What 'thing' forms the various 'points' on the medium lines? How does one arrive at this 'thing' through Volume? Do your lines reflect this?

 

Sloppy annotation (irrespective of intent) serves no purpose in an environment of purposeful learning.

 

- Spydertrader

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Look at your chart at the beginning of your annotations. In a previous post, you indicated how to arrive at Point Two. Do your annotations reflect this same assertion? Review your Point Three Annotations. Do your Gaussians show how you answered my previous post?

Now go to the thin lines.

What 'thing' forms the various 'points' on the medium lines? How does one arrive at this 'thing' through Volume? Do your lines reflect this?

Sloppy annotation (irrespective of intent) serves no purpose in an environment of purposeful learning.

- Spydertrader

 

Spydertrader,

Thanks for your feedback.

I redrew the annotations and Gaussians lines the way I understood should be done from your questions. I redo only the first part so that if there is still mistakes, I have less chart info to figure out where the mistakes are located.

Please let me know if I am on the right track.

ES5min10072010_take2.thumb.png.0ce3234378560e31a35e12c19bf3c150.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Please let me know if I am on the right track.

 

How do you get to 'Point Two' of something that moves down?

 

How did YOU arrive at point Two?

 

Do you feel this is correct?

 

 

Now. The 'Points' of one container find themselves created by some 'thing' formed by a faster level container.

 

What is that thing?

 

Forget the chart for a moment.

 

Start at the 'fine' level.

 

Pull out some blank sheets of paper, and focus on drawing volume gaussians - without any charts around. Move from Point One to Point Two to Point Three and onto the completion of the order of events. Now, do the non-dominant container. Do the dominant container again.

 

What did you just build?

 

Three things built one larger thing.

 

Continue the process in a fractal fashion.

 

Go back to your charts and note where you need to polish.

 

HTH.

 

Spydertrader

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

cnms2 thank you for the link and advise it will help me understand better. Spydertrader I was drawing the Gaussian after and not before the price reaction. I will study more than try another post to see if I am learning. Thanks to all

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Before going back to the chart, let me answer your questions.

How do you get to 'Point Two' of something that moves down?

How did YOU arrive at point Two?

Spydertrader

Point 2 is at the peak/highest volume of R2R.

 

Now. The 'Points' of one container find themselves created by some 'thing' formed by a faster level container.

What is that thing?

Points 1, 2 and 3 of a faster level container creates the slower level container.

For down move, faster level R2R2B2R is needed to create the slower level container.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Your Medium level gaussians (I assume their are medium as I see no 'thick' level) do not accurately represent the market condition (from around 1:15 [on your chart] forward)

 

Thanks for your feedback, Spydertrader. Today the market invalidated my previous B2B traverse. It was a 2B traverse.

 

Attached is my view for today, Thursday 7 Oct 2010. Annotated 3 levels of containers and gaussians.

 

TIA for any feedback/comments.

5aa7103842a30_ES2010_10_07.thumb.png.cd280744fa5cbfe50a8fbed64d5ce1c3.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Before going back to the chart, let me answer your questions.

Point 2 is at the peak/highest volume of R2R.

.

Incorrect. The second R of the R2R will not necessarily be greater volume than the first, so p2 will not always be at the highest volume of the R2R. P2 is at the highest point reached by price (assuming long) before price leaves the R2R tape.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Forget the chart for a moment.

Start at the 'fine' level.

Pull out some blank sheets of paper, and focus on drawing volume gaussians - without any charts around. Move from Point One to Point Two to Point Three and onto the completion of the order of events. Now, do the non-dominant container. Do the dominant container again.

Here's my Gaussians drawing on the paper.

Please let me know if it's incorrect.

Thanks.

gaussiansDrawing.thumb.png.74f33123a9f17c536334a7138d9bb2f7.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Incorrect. see attached

Thank you for the drawing. Now I know my initial understanding of Gaussians was wrong

I will have to review other people's charts over the weekend to learn to draw my charts correctly.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Would it be considered a useful drill to erase most of the price portion of a bunch of charts from the past, leaving the first few bars at open and the last few bars at close, draw the gaussians and then try to fill in what price did

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Taking one step at the time and trying to draw Gaussians to match with trend lines for 10/8/2010.

 

You might want to stay focused on yesterday's chart (first with the morning portion) before moving onto more complex examples.

 

Crawl. Walk. Run. Then, Fly.

 

- Spydertrader

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
You might want to stay focused on yesterday's chart (first with the morning portion) before moving onto more complex examples.

Crawl. Walk. Run. Then, Fly.

- Spydertrader

Thanks for the advice.

That is what I've planned for my weekend homework a long with studying other people's charts.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

my previous post seems to have vanished, so apologies if this appears twice.

In order to get the gaussian thing down pat, would it be a good drill to take a bunch of charts, erase the price portion except the beginning and end bars and then try to fill in what price did just from the volume pane... thanks

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
my previous post seems to have vanished, so apologies if this appears twice.

In order to get the gaussian thing down pat, would it be a good drill to take a bunch of charts, erase the price portion except the beginning and end bars and then try to fill in what price did just from the volume pane... thanks

go to refinement thread page #264 look for gaussian drill

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks for all your advices.

Here's my redraw of the Thursday 10/7/2010 chart.

There are two areas with brown boxes on the volume pane which I am not sure drawn correctly.

Any feed back would be greatly appreciated.

ES5min10072010_reworked.thumb.png.4277b62bb213f2c5c3c61edfd6d6d1bd.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here's my redraw of the Thursday 10/7/2010 chart.

 

Let's stay focused on that down container (for the time being) in an effort to make absolutely certain we have the ability to accurately, and consistantly, annotate our Gaussians the exact same way on all fractals.

 

Look away from the charts (for a moment) and pull out some blank paper. Write down what you know with respect to the order of events.

 

If your Gaussians show you R2R, where are you with respect to the order of events?

 

If your Gaussians show you R2R 2B, where are you with respect to the order of events?

 

If your Gaussians show you R2R 2B 2R, where are you with respect to the order of events (and what then do you want to see to tell you this order of events has ended)?

 

Since we know all markets exist on a fractal basis, the same exact paradigm for where one sits currently (with respect to the right side of the market) and what must come next (with respect to the order of events) develops on each and every line thickness annotated on our chart. In other words, that which we do for 'tapes' we must also do for 'traverses' and 'channels.'

 

What else do we know? Our Order of Events marks the minimum requirement needed to complete a given fractal. While no maximum exists, each component of the order of events must develop in the exact same fashion as the minimum level required. In other words (using our example of the down container), a decelerating medium level (thickness) black Gaussian Line means something - and it always means the exact same thing - irrespective of the number of times it appears on a chart.

 

Now, look at you down container anotations ...

 

1. What does a decelerating medium level (thickness) black Gaussian Line mean in a Down Container?

 

2. Do your annotations reflect the meaning of a decelerating medium level (thickness) black Gaussian Line?

 

Since we know the market often provides more than the minimum required for a given level container, something must indicate to the trader that the market plans to go beyond the minimum.

 

1. What are these events?

 

2. What must come next when they develop?

 

Lastly, once we have the above all sorted out, we can then work to 'clean' up our nesting of the various fractals within each other. To do this, we need to completely understand where the various fractals come together, and where they split apart.

 

Begin with the slowest fractal (channel) and move faster.

 

Using Volume only for the following questions ....

 

1. How does one arrive at Point Two of a Channel?

 

2. How does one arrive at Point Two of a Traverse?

 

3. How does one arrive at Point Two of a Tape?

 

Moving between 'points' on a given fractal results from a completed Order of Events of a faster fractal. Therefore, each fractal nests within another. Take a moment and draw (on paper) a channel Point Two (again using Gaussians [Volume] only). Then annotate the faster fractal which must complete in order to arive at the channel Point Two. Do the same for the Traverse and Tape - without going beyond a Channel Point Two.

 

Note where all three fractals come together and where all three fractals diverge.

 

Do not move beyond annotating another chart until you can see hwere you placed errors within the down container currently under discussion.

 

Do not think for one moment you are alone in this journey. No doubt, a number of newer folks (and even a number of folks who have studied this for quite some time) have the same problem you currently experience.

 

Anyone interested should feel welcome to contribute to this discussion.

 

Again, the goal here is to develop both accuracy and precision with respect to annotations.

 

I hope you find the above information helpful.

 

- Spydertrader

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi Spydertrader,

 

Please see attached snip from Thursday 7 Oct 2010. I have a question regarding matching gaussian to trend line. Is it possible that 2R B2B gaussian happened within one bar? I don't see any other increasing black volume to annotate B2B gaussian for that green up traverse.

 

Thanks.

5aa71038ad6f1_ES2010_10.07snip.thumb.png.dd88127501e4d436fe0f15e142d941bf.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Spydertrader,

Thank you for your patience and taking your time explaining to me how to recognize my errors. Either my understanding of the nesting of different levels of Gaussians is incorrect OR my translation of this understanding to the actual drawing is wrong.

So let me make sure my understanding of the nesting is correct by answering your questions without looking at any chart first.

If your Gaussians show you R2R, where are you with respect to the order of events?

I have a new order of events and point 1 and 2 have been developed for this new sequence.

If your Gaussians show you R2R 2B, where are you with respect to the order of events?

This is a retrace from point2 to point3 of the new sequence.

If your Gaussians show you R2R 2B 2R, where are you with respect to the order of events (and what then do you want to see to tell you this order of events has ended)?

I have point 3 of the new sequence and I need a 2B 2B (decreasing black and then increasing black) to know this sequence has been ended. If I see 2B2R instead, the market is signaling this sequence will continue.

What else do we know? Our Order of Events marks the minimum requirement needed to complete a given fractal. While no maximum exists, each component of the order of events must develop in the exact same fashion as the minimum level required.

Please correct me if I misunderstood this statement.

For minimum, I need B2B2R2B to complete a sequence. But this sequence can continue with 2R2B2R2B...?

Begin with the slowest fractal (channel) and move faster.

If I zoom out and look at the bigger picture, I see this.

I will zoom into each line if this is correct.

10072010_GaussiansChannel.png.3f4339350747cbf4b3d75ef57a65e443.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
This chart from Spyder, may be helpful to understand the fractal nature of Gaussians.

 

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2205173

 

Also see the discussion for the context : pages 1630-1636.

 

Forums - Iterative Refinement

 

Spyder, I guess you would allow.

 

Gucci,

Thanks for the links.

How can you pick out a particular discussion from such a large thread? You must have some kind of indexing into that thread?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Bitcoin (BTC) Drops To $6,828 After A Sudden Price Spike To $7,283 Key Resistance Zones: $10,000, $11,000, $12,000 Key Support Zones: $7, 000, $6, 000, $5,000 BTC/USD Long-term Trend: Bearish On March 2, there was a price spike as Bitcoin reached a high of $7,283.50. The bulls could not sustain the upward move as Bitcoin fell to $6,828. The bears are defending intensively the $7,000 overhead resistance. BTC is now fluctuating above $6,800. The bears will further sink BTC if the bulls fail to move up. Bitcoin may fall to the low of the breakout level of $6,400. However, if this level also cracks, the market will further fall to the next support. BTC/USD – Daily Chart Daily Chart Indicators Reading: Bitcoin is above 60% range of the daily stochastic. This is given the recent price spike which tested the resistance line of the descending channel. However, if price breaks and closes above the resistance line, there will be a change in the trend. BTC will resume an uptrend. BTC/USD Medium-term Trend: Bullish Yesterday, BTC was making an upward move to retest the $7,000 resistance. The price has earlier moved up to $6,800 before the commencement of price spike. The market moved above the resistance level but could not sustain above $7,000 because of the selling pressure. BTC/USD 4-hour Chart Indicators Reading The Relative Strength Index has risen to level 66. It indicates that BTC is in the uptrend zone and above the centerline 50. The 21-day and 50-day SMAs are sloping upward indicating the upward move. General Outlook for Bitcoin (BTC) Yesterday, Bitcoin rose to $7,283 in a price spike. The bulls could not sustain the upward move because of the presence of sellers at the price level. BTC dropped to a low of $6,800. The price has since been fluctuating above that level. Instrument: BTC/USD Order: Sell Entry price: $6,784.00 Stop: $6,850.00 Target: $6,584.00   Source: https://learn2.trade 
    • EURJPY Extends Decline Lower Past The Level At 117.08 EURJPY Price Analysis – April 3 The FX cross extends its lower fall into the European session early underneath the price level at 117.08 as the pair resumed lower. EURJPY acceleration downside remains intact, as sellers tend to force down prices. The pair’s potential target will be on the 116.00 marks. Key Levels Resistance Levels: 122.87, 121.15, 118.87 Support Levels: 116.12, 115.83, 114.39 EURJPY Long term Trend: Bearish EURJPY is sliding towards the lows of 2020, as the pair trades below its key daily 5 and 13 MAs and signals an apparent bearish trajectory. The pattern remains bearish in the larger sense as the cross stays well within the falling channel formed from 122.87 (high) level. The downtrend will continue to 109.48 (low) level as long as the resistance level holds at 122.87. Continuous 122.87 level break may, however, conclude a double bottom at (115.83, 116.12) levels which may indicate medium to long-term bullish reversals. EURJPY Short term Trend: Bearish The emphasis is now on EURJPY support levels of 115.83/116.12. There the definitive break may accelerate the larger downward trend. Next, a relatively close-term goal would be a 100 percent forecast of 122.87 to 116.12 at 114.39 levels from 121.15. Nonetheless, on the upside, the break of 118.87 minor level of resistance may assert that consolidation from 115.83 level is increasing with yet another upward step. Intraday bias for resistance level of 121.15 may be shifted further to the upside. Instrument: EURJPY Order: Sell Entry price: 117.08 Stop: 117.71 Target: 116.12   Source: https://learn2.trade 
    • Date : 3rd April 2020. Inured to the bad news.The markets are relatively inured to the bad news, as the weekly jobless claims have already given us the increasingly ugly news on the labor market. US equities are modestly weaker amid risk-off sentiment and an employment report that revealed a much larger than anticipated -701k plunge in March and a jump in the jobless rate to 8.7% from 7.0%.Meanwhile, the Dollar showed mixed reaction to the employment report. These numbers were worse than expected, though shouldn’t really be a surprise given the more timely surge in jobless claims figures seen the past two weeks. USDJPY initially fell to 108.25 before turning back up again at 108.60, while EURUSD fell to 1.0780 from 1.0800. USDCHF extended gains up to 0.9794, reversing nearly 76% of the decline seen since March 20.EURUSD concurrently carved out a 9-day low at 1.0774, making this the 5th consecutive day of lower lows while extending the correction from the 17-day high that was seen last Friday at 1.1148. The pair still remains above the low seen during the recent Dollar liquidity crunch, at 1.0637, before the Fed and other central banks stepped in to try and satiate the demand for cash dollars. Its overall outlook meanwhile, remains negative, with the asset extending well below all 3 daily SMAs and with its daily momentum indicators negatively configured. Hence the Dollar bid looks to hold.The March establishment and household employment surveys captured more of the early layoffs than the markets had assumed, with massive declines for payrolls and hours-worked, big drops for civilian employment, the labor force, and the participation rate, and the start of the upward march for the jobless rate. Wages were also firm, likely due to the concentration of job loss among lower-paid workers.The specifics: March nonfarm payrolls dropped -701k after February’s 275k increase (was 273k), which ended a 9.5 year run of employment gains. The employment in the goods-producing sector fell -54k from the 57k (was 61k) rise. Service sector jobs slumped -659k after rising 185k (was 167k) in February. Leisure/hospitality jobs plunged -459k from the prior 45k (was 51k) increase. Education/health care jobs were down -76k versus a 65k (was 54k) increase previously. Government jobs edged up 12k, with 18k added to the Federal payroll. The unemployment rate jumped to 4.4% (4.38%) from 3.5%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% versus the prior 0.3% gain.The weakness captured in the mid-month March jobs report may prompt downward revisions in the Q1 GDP estimate, on the assumption that the Quarter may capture more of the economic plunge than previously assumed.Beyond the timing of Q1 versus Q2 growth figures, however, the surprise in today‘s report is more the degree to which the surveys captured late-March events than the magnitude of declines, since the bulk of the jobs loss will still be captured in the surveys for April.Since the Fed is already in maximum easing mode, it is unlikely that reports like today‘s will alter the monetary policy path.Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Since Yesterday 02 April 2020 CorsaForex Binary Options Broker is out from business We recommend you to trade with Binary. com (Online since 1999) with Binary Options 20$ No Deposit Bonus https://binaryoptionsfree.eu/binary-com-review-great-binary-options-customers-support/
    • re: stocks.  Imo,we have a long ways to go down before we get to ‘value’ .  “Even at the March 23rd low...the Wilshire 5000-to-GDP ratio was at 101.38 percent, the 73rd percentile”   No place to be shopping for 'value' Yet, with all the fake money flooding in, the stock mkt could still soar.  But - up is not really up.  The long ‘bull of the last dacade + was actually ‘bull’sht.  Bullsht = steady injections of more fiat, taking on cash flow dependent corporate debt to finance ‘supply reducing’ buybacks,  malinvestments galore, capital DESTRUCTION - all clouded by a steady stream of FALSE msm narratives and fake numbers - from top numbers (ie GDP, etc.) all the way down to individual corp reports and reporting. ... ie Any ‘bull’ action now is in the  category of obese elephant bull sht... And as I have been posting for years, we can’t use dollars as a measure anymore.  ie  Up is not really up https://mises.org/wire/what-if-fed-did-nothing and using dollars as a measure is getting worse and worse.  ‘money’ not ‘working’ anymore. .. https://alhambrapartners.com/2020/03/31/what-is-the-feds-new-fima-the-potential-for-a-shadow-shadow-run-is-very-real/ https://alhambrapartners.com/2020/03/30/no-dollars-and-no-sense-eighty-argentinas/ ... ” Another day, another trillion dollars.”   re:  “all clouded by a steady stream of FALSE narratives. “  Yes, sweetheart the same thing has been happening in the covidity lockdown ... a steady stream of FALSE narratives  https://medium.com/@caityjohnstone/peoples-skepticism-about-covid-19-is-the-fault-of-the-lying-mass-media-91216ad7fcf3  ... I just chuckle now anytime I hear any US press comment on/ criticise Russia or Chinese ‘disinformation’ .  Imo, China’s ‘Police State’ is currently only a tiny click or two worse than our ‘Pharm State’.   Re:  trading.  It’s been a wild wonderful wide range last six + weeks  to trade.  I have been preparing for it a long time and still didn’t capture as much as possible... for one thing, didn't increase/balance sizing for  those outlier bounces as robustly as I should have, etc ... but still it’s been amazing.  First signs starting to show up that ‘volatility’ is slowing down ... will deal with that by up sizing all positions appropriately. I’m no longer ‘trading’ fx.  I’m now speculating in fx.  ... gradually scaling into a pretty good sized dollar short...  do you make a distinction btwn ‘trading’ and ‘speculating’?   btw atlas shrugged about a “secret coin”.... I’m just sayin’    later... maybe
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.