Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Recommended Posts

Thank you for this.

 

Complex = a container (BBT) within which we are able to annotate non dominant trend lines as per the 10 x 2 bar cases.

 

Non dom trend lines in an up BBT =

FBP, EH, SYM, and also IBGS and OB.

 

I don't understand how to annotate a non dominant trend line in the case of an ibgs (say in up BBT), which makes a higher high and higher low relative to the previous bar. It seems similar to the FTP. Spyder made no reference to bar open and closing prices in the 2 bar cases.

 

If the two bars are translating (up in this case), you can't draw a non dom TL even if the bar is an ibgs.

 

He must've been referencing something like this: if we're in an up move, then a bar makes a "lower low" but it's close is such that it's an ibgs long (which means technically it's a mode up/black bar)...we could still draw a non dom TL to it.

 

Edit: Or an upwards translating bar that's an ibgs short and happens to intersect an existing up TL. Since the ibgs bar's mode is red/down it'd be a valid potential non dom TL. This happens a lot, and a lot FTT bars fit such a description. I'd show this but am not at my PC right now.

 

My question is, to fit that definition of "complex" do we have to have a 123ftt in the non dom direction? Or simply the possibility of drawing a non dom TL even if not a valid container (no ftt) is enough to make it complex?

Edited by plantrader

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
What is the question? Post a snipet with annotation confusion.

 

Hi gucci,

 

Thanks for your efforts.

 

Here is a snippet of one of your charts. (Excuse the manual annotations).

 

The purple container (I) consists of three, "equal weight" bbt tapes.

 

The next container is brown.

 

1. My first confusion is that the point 2 on the price pane does not match the point 2 on the volume gaussian. I thought that gaussians should match trend lines.

 

2. My second confusion is that the movement of price to point 2 (corresponding to the gaussian) is a "complex bbt". It contains a sym pennant corresponding to the volume trough. However the movement for price from this point 2 to point 3 and then from point 3 to the end are simple bbt's. So I don't understand how the concept of equal weight containers applies.

5aa7124f9b12f_Drillreplyedit.thumb.jpg.d6f6992edbebce7b551f5d3607fb31d8.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hi gucci,

 

Thanks for your efforts.

 

Here is a snippet of one of your charts. (Excuse the manual annotations).

 

The purple container (I) consists of three, "equal weight" bbt tapes.

 

The next container is brown.

 

1. My first confusion is that the point 2 on the price pane does not match the point 2 on the volume gaussian. I thought that gaussians should match trend lines.

 

2. My second confusion is that the movement of price to point 2 (corresponding to the gaussian) is a "complex bbt". It contains a sym pennant corresponding to the volume trough. However the movement for price from this point 2 to point 3 and then from point 3 to the end are simple bbt's. So I don't understand how the concept of equal weight containers applies.

 

To your first confusion... See attached. On 5 min chart you see an IBGS. On two min chart you see where the trend line should be placed.Somehing transpired within the bar itself. It is called an IBGS for a reason. The increasing volume after point three is a must.

 

I do not understand your second confusion and question.Try to rephrase.

5aa7124fbb576_Therighttrendline.thumb.png.64e4a1a467ef0095d49b25cd66ce9831.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hi gucci,

 

 

 

2. My second confusion is that the movement of price to point 2 (corresponding to the gaussian) is a "complex bbt". It contains a sym pennant corresponding to the volume trough. However the movement for price from this point 2 to point 3 and then from point 3 to the end are simple bbt's. So I don't understand how the concept of equal weight containers applies.

 

I guess I understand. Just to be sure try to rephrase, than I can answer.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Thank you for this.

 

Complex = a container (BBT) within which we are able to annotate non dominant trend lines as per the 10 x 2 bar cases.

 

Non dom trend lines in an up BBT =

FBP, EH, SYM, and also IBGS and OB.

 

I don't understand how to annotate a non dominant trend line in the case of an ibgs (say in up BBT), which makes a higher high and higher low relative to the previous bar. It seems similar to the FTP. Spyder made no reference to bar open and closing prices in the 2 bar cases.

 

You're correct in that we can't annotate a non dom trend line to an IBGS that, in an uptrend, has made a HH and HL.

 

To clarify:

Complex = a container (BBT) within which we are able to annotate non dominant trend lines as per the 10 x 2 bar cases.

 

Non dom trend lines in an up BBT =

FBP, EH, SYM, and also down Stitch and down translating bar and OB.

 

An IBGS in of itself makes a BBT Complex even if we can't annotate non dom trend lines to it.

Please see post# 4016 where "bar 3" is referenced and shows that the IBGS (in of itself) made the BBT Complex prior to the EH.

 

An IBGS, and OB as the first and/or last bar of a container, do not make the container Complex.

If they occured, they would need to be "within" the container, as in between the first and last bars.

 

So if you wanted to annotate faster gaussians within a BBT, you would have the 2y gaussian to an IBGS in the same way as you would have a 2y leg to the other non dom formations, non dom translating bar and OB listed above.

 

Hope that's clearer and apologies for any confusion.

Edited by FilterTip

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

My question is, to fit that definition of "complex" do we have to have a 123ftt in the non dom direction? Or simply the possibility of drawing a non dom TL even if not a valid container (no ftt) is enough to make it complex?

 

No we don't need the non dom price formation (via the cases listed previously and the explination re: IBGS) to have a set of trend lines (rtl and ltl) wih p1/p2/p3/ftt (OOE's).

 

The non dom is making the BBT Complex so is within the BBT.

That non dom would be at a faster level than the BBT it's within so we don;'t need to actually annotate it on price. On vol we can, if we wanted to, assign a 2y to it.

 

Gaussians match our trend lines.

Either the x2x2y2x or X2X gaussians are both within BBT 1.

A BBT 1 has an x2x2y2x only because it's Complex.

A BBT 1 has an X2X only because it's Simple

 

If our BBT 1 gets us to Tape P2 via a faster x2x2y2x, thats only because we've had non dom within the BBT 1 (making it Complex) to which we can annotate the 2y leg of an x2x2y2x.

If our BBT 1 is Simple, then that's the same as getting to a Tape P2 via only an X2X.

(We have no non dom for a 2y)

 

Either way it doesn't matter because BBT 1 is getting us to Tape P2.

All that matters is that we know this.

 

Hope that helps.

Edited by FilterTip

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

So if you wanted to annotate faster gaussians within a BBT, you would have the 2y gaussian to an IBGS in the same way as you would have a 2y leg to the other non dom formations, non dom translating bar and OB listed above.

 

 

Thank you for your reply.

 

The above being the case with can't you include a FTP in your non dom formations (for an up trend) , as there could be only a one tick difference between a FTP, and an IBGS or a sym pennant?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Thank you for your reply.

You're welcome

The above being the case with can't you include a FTP in your non dom formations (for an up trend) , as there could be only a one tick difference between a FTP, and an IBGS or a sym pennant?

That doesn't seem logical imo.

If a one tick difference didn't matter then we'd have no reason to distinguish between formations and/or whether some were dom or non dom.

Neither, I would imagine, would Spyder have brought them to our attention (?) !

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hi Gucci,

 

When studying the chart under discussion, in real time I would have probably taken the (15:35) IBGS on increasing volume, which is also a lateral BO/FBO, as a major signal for change. (This would have been too early as it turns out).

 

Then I thought of this previous quote of yours in response to a post.

 

"The market moved to its point 2 (first dominant leg) creating the faster fractal thing underway. Such being the case you should anticipate the second dominant leg (2R) being created the similar way. So annotating REAL TIME at 10:25 (your provisional point 3)you anticipate the second dominant leg. This second dominant leg should be created by a faster fractal thing. So there is no way you should look for a signal of change at 10:30-10:40 area. Now try to work forward from here using the same logic in conjunction with volume sequences and you will also understand why we do not have a faster fractal thing annotated from 10:25 onward. (see the chart with the clue)"

 

Would a similar argument apply here. The 15:35 IBGS cannot be a signal for change because the faster fractal sequence of the second dominant leg (2R) has not completed yet. We can only start looking for a signal for change after the 15:45 bar (the faster fractal sequence for the second dominant leg of the pink container is now complete), and that signal for change comes on the very next bar in the form of another increasing volume ibgs/ob?

 

I hope I am on the right track.:)

 

Hi Gucci,

 

This is an old quote.

 

Is the shape of the containers i.e "equal weight" important? If your first dominant movement (R2R) in this case consists of a down tape, then up tape and then down tape, must the third dominant movement (2R) have the same shape.

 

I suspect this is not the case and that I misunderstood.

 

This is not the case in the brown container referenced in my previous post, (the B2B has a SYM pennant, but the 2B, has no non dom formation, at least none that is visible on the 5 minute time frame).

Drill2.thumb.jpg.5f5d847b8050d37404fba6a1fb8122c9.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hi Gucci,

 

This is an old quote.

 

Is the shape of the containers i.e "equal weight" important? If your first dominant movement (R2R) in this case consists of a down tape, then up tape and then down tape, must the third dominant movement (2R) have the same shape.

 

I suspect this is not the case and that I misunderstood.

 

This is not the case in the brown container referenced in my previous post, (the B2B has a SYM pennant, but the 2B, has no non dom formation, at least none that is visible on the 5 minute time frame).

 

You are on the right track. Compare the down tape in your first referenced post to the up tape in your last post. Good job.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
You're welcome

 

That doesn't seem logical imo.

If a one tick difference didn't matter then we'd have no reason to distinguish between formations and/or whether some were dom or non dom.

Neither, I would imagine, would Spyder have brought them to our attention (?) !

 

I'll have to disagree with you on this one.

 

Not that it makes much difference, the market will decide. :)

 

Our charts are a graphical record of transactions by thousands of buyers and sellers, divided (arbitrarily) in 5 minute periods. If one of those buyers or sellers transacted one second later or earlier, it might effect the shape of our formation, but would not fundamentally alter the overall market situation. So for me it does appear logical to place the FTP with the others. Maybe we should look out for examples in the market.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I'll have to disagree with you on this one.

 

Not that it makes much difference, the market will decide. :)

 

Our charts are a graphical record of transactions by thousands of buyers and sellers, divided (arbitrarily) in 5 minute periods. If one of those buyers or sellers transacted one second later or earlier, it might effect the shape of our formation, but would not fundamentally alter the overall market situation. So for me it does appear logical to place the FTP with the others. Maybe we should look out for examples in the market.

 

Interesting and prolific discussion. May I ask some questions? What is a stall? And what is a FTP?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Thank you for your reply.

 

The above being the case with can't you include a FTP in your non dom formations (for an up trend) , as there could be only a one tick difference between a FTP, and an IBGS or a sym pennant?

 

By definition an internal is sub-fractal. I think you are heading down a very dangerous road. Sure there is 1 tick difference. In volume that tick may have been 1 contract or 1000+ contracts. To differentiate when a FTP is a sym vs an IBGS is frivolous exercise.

 

Keep your eye on the ball regarding CONTEXT and ORDER OF EVENTS.

 

HTH

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Interesting and prolific discussion. May I ask some questions? What is a stall? And what is a FTP?

 

I am not a profitable trader of this method, and I don't wish to clutter up this thread with "frivolity".

 

Any post is done in the spirit of seeking understanding.

 

I also wish to say that I am pleased that Gucci's efforts have bought a bit of life back to a long dormant thread. I think most people in my position have/had just given up. Now, with somebody who has been through similar struggles, and yet who has finally made it (work), and who is willing to try and help others, there is the thought of maybe just giving it one more try, maybe some more pennies will drop. (Excuse the pun).

 

Pardon me if a think aloud, what follows might be obvious, but I am trying to clarify things in my own mind.

 

Price is a continuous variable. The most accurate graphical representation of the market, (leaving volume aside for the moment), would be a continuous line graph, with time on the horizontal axis and price on the vertical. It is not practical to have the time measured in seconds (say), but if we did we would get a very long graph, showing all the tiny up and down variations/waves in price over the period. So price is like a video.

 

We have chosen to use a 5 minute OHLC bar graph. This like a series on photographs taken at 5 minute intervals from the video. I think that perhaps we should not mistake the photo for the substance which is the video, and to bear in mind that when we look at the photos we are getting a simplified view of the video.

 

That being said:

 

In a uptrend

 

FBP – two bar formation, with second bar having an equal high and a higher low. Price fails to advance in the trend for a least 5 minutes, some movement in the opposite direction of the trend (down)

 

EH – two bar formation, with second bar having an equal high and equal low. Price fails to advance in the trend for at least 5 minutes, some movement in the opposite direction of the trend (down)

 

SYM – two bar formation, with second bar having a lower high and a higher low. Price fails to advance in the trend for a least 5 minutes, some movement in the opposite direction of the trend (down)

 

FBP – two bar formation, with second bar having a lower high and equal low. Price fails to advance in the trend for at least 5 minutes, some movement in the opposite direction of the trend (down)

 

IBGS (down) – two bar formation, with the second bar having a higher high and higher a low (if not an outside bar), with closing price lower than opening price. Price does advance in the trend, but the net result of price movement is that price is lower than it was 5 minutes before, therefore, some movement in the opposite direction of the trend.

 

I agree that for an FBP, the movement in the opposite direction of the trend (down), maybe a bit more pronounced than in the case of a FTP, but essentially you have a 5 minute period where price does not advance in the direction of the trend (Up). There is downward movement in price. Thinking in terms of Wyckoff, who I have been reading, this is either due to a reduction in buying activity, or an increase in selling activity.

 

A stall (from Jack)

 

Stalls are longer hitches and the volatility may not be less than prior bars. Picture it as a

definite pause and dwell period that occurs not too close to the left fractal channel line.

Volume will oscillate somewhat by flagging and then refreshing and flagging again.

 

Hitch

As dominant traverses proceed the price change there is, at first, an almost continuous

advance. Therefore, from bar to bar, the offsets and the bar length repeat one after

another. Progress can soften after a period of time and it shows up as a momentary one

or two bar repeat. Repeat means that consecutive nearly identical bars show up. The

bars often do not have the volatility of the prior advancing bars. Volume will flag

somewhat preceding this phenomena. Then the price resumes its prior advance. The

market has momentarily caught its breath, so to speak.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A stall (from Jack)

 

Stalls are longer hitches and the volatility may not be less than prior bars. Picture it as a

definite pause and dwell period that occurs not too close to the left fractal channel line.

Volume will oscillate somewhat by flagging and then refreshing and flagging again.

 

Hitch

As dominant traverses proceed the price change there is, at first, an almost continuous

advance. Therefore, from bar to bar, the offsets and the bar length repeat one after

another. Progress can soften after a period of time and it shows up as a momentary one

or two bar repeat. Repeat means that consecutive nearly identical bars show up. The

bars often do not have the volatility of the prior advancing bars. Volume will flag

somewhat preceding this phenomena. Then the price resumes its prior advance. The

market has momentarily caught its breath, so to speak.

 

Could you post a snippet of Jack's blackboard sketches of Hitch, Stall and Dip that somebody uploaded on ET many years ago? Thanks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Could you post a snippet of Jack's blackboard sketches of Hitch, Stall and Dip that somebody uploaded on ET many years ago? Thanks.

 

I've attached a picture for you. The sketches can also be found on the third to last page of Volume 1 which stephan just posted a couple of days ago.

 

-river

5aa7125041a95_FlawSketchesfromTusconMeeting.thumb.jpg.b7e187bf64bc99c171874fab7b091440.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Could you post a snippet of Jack's blackboard sketches of Hitch, Stall and Dip that somebody uploaded on ET many years ago? Thanks.
This was posted by spydertrader on Feb 7, 2007.

flaws.jpg.f246436bf1fc8a24a062d04e10a37fe6.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks 203NG, river, cnms2.

 

I have over the years reviewed how Jack described these internal trend formations (hitch, dip, stall) occurring in dominant tape-like price movement in his Channels for Building Wealth document and a few very old posts.

 

Do you consider they might occur other than in pennant patterns or lateral formations in a price movement? I mean in translation case.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I see most of PV participants have migrated here. This is reading Price Volume bar by bar indicator.

I include 2 similar Ninja PV indicators. One needs Gom indicator so that it can run on history Bid and Ask. One run real time only, it will lose bid/ask data if you hit refresh the chart. The real time indicator is posted here only.

Note: remember to change extension cs.txt back to cs only,

Tip: expand the indicator to see hash marks better.

ps.Indicator that uses Gom package works better.

 

Download Basic Gom package here

http://www.ninjatrader.com/support/forum/showthread.php?t=23283

2015-05-10_1432.thumb.png.64c405d5e94af09ab0f80402b7b054a7.png

2015-05-11_1624.thumb.png.89bd18777b3ff999234a5cccd5293244.png

2015-05-11_1103.thumb.png.e1b97d7c8f21ea811c6bfc6b0e920c25.png

2015-05-13_1544.png.3273c97255131adb861c4338f2f5d727.png

2015-05-29_1127.thumb.png.07a155e9550e710c167b7dfbbaef9fd0.png

BidAskPV.zip

GomBidAskPVbyJackH.cs.txt

2015-05-13_1545.png.4a99eb2ce1956b3b1e530eb3f3478e9b.png

Edited by nkhoi

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Topics

  • Posts

    • I have a serious question. It’s a question I’m grateful that many lab partners will have many good answers.   -   What are the results when the fed transitions from being the ‘buyer of last resort’ of bonds to being the ‘only buyer’ of bonds? thx
    • Date : 2nd June 2020. FX Update – June 2 – Weaker USD. Trading Leveraged Products is risky AUDUSD, H1 The Dollar has remained soft, with risk sentiment in global markets holding up, albeit with a weakening grip. Wall Street finished with modest gains yesterday, while the USA500 is moderately in the negative, and while Asian and European markets have gained, they are up by only a limited extent. US President Trump is weighing military action and imposing curfews in cities across the country in an effort to quell rioting, while there are glass-half-full market narratives arguing that, with many assets having recouped to pre-pandemic levels, there may be less upside potential with most economies across the world not expected to fully recover until such time as there is a vaccine or cure for the coronavirus. Despite the flagging risk-on tone, the narrow trade-weighted USDIndex edged out a new low, at 97.74, which is the lowest level seen since March 16th. EURUSD has remained buoyant, and has breached yesterday’s 11-week high at 1.1155, to trade to 1.1178. USDJPY remained in a narrow range in the mid-to-upper reaches of the 107.00s, which has been the case for about two weeks now. Sterling has outperformed on Brexit-related news, with the London Times reporting that the UK government is expected to signal a compromise on fisheries and “level playing field” trade rules if the EU backs off from its “maximalist” demands on regulatory alignment and fishing access, according to unnamed sources. Cable printed a one-month peak at 1.2555, while EURGBP fell to an 18-day low at 0.8865. AUDUSD edged out a fresh four-month high, at 0.6844. The RBA did the expected and left monetary policy unchanged at its June review today, maintaining the cash rate at 0.25%, while signalling that “the accommodative approach will be maintained as long as it is required.” USDCAD printed a fresh trend low at 1.3507, the lowest seen since March 9th. The Canadian Dollar, like other oil-correlating currencies, remains supported by the ongoing buoyancy in oil prices, ahead of the rescheduled OPEC+ meeting this week, while USOil trades at $36.00 currently. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Reply to this topic... Skim these - if you can https://www.oftwominds.com/blogmay20/globalization-dead5-20.html https://www.oftwominds.com/blogmay20/cycles5-20.html https://www.oftwominds.com/blogmay20/opt-out5-20.html https://www.oftwominds.com/blogmay20/tinas-orgy5-20.html https://www.oftwominds.com/blogmay20/stocks-fragility5-20.html and if you’re still strong and not  burnt out https://www.oftwominds.com/blogmay20/demand5-20.html https://www.oftwominds.com/blogmay20/social-media-plantation5-20.html
    • Open a new NinjaTrader Brokerage account by June 30th and SAVE on a Lifetime license with a discounted price of only $999! Along with access to the most powerful version of NinjaTrader, you will save even more with deep discount commissions at $.09 per Micro futures contract & only $50 margins. Your Lifetime license includes ALL of NinjaTrader’s premium features: Award-winning order entry including Chart Trader & OCO orders Order Flow + tool set featuring the Volume Profile Indicator – NinjaTrader’s most powerful indicator to date ATM Strategies, advanced Alerting system, auto-close positions for additional risk management & more PLUS all future NinjaTrader platform enhancements are included at no additional charge – for life! Simply fund your new account with the minimum of $400 by June 30th to lock in your savings. Questions? Contact us at 312.262.1289 or brokeragesales@ninjatrader.com. Platform License Discount Requirements: Account must be opened & funded in June 2020 with $400 minimum Discount is applicable to software purchase only 2nd accounts for current NinjaTrader Brokerage account owners are not eligible for platform discounts Futures and Forex trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones financial security or life style. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. View Full Risk Disclosure.
    • Date : 01st June 2020. Events to Look Out for This Week.Geopolitics are back in the picture giving the markets pause and adding another layer of uncertainty to a shaky global outlook. However other than US-China tension, next week the global data dockets are heavy and results are likely to underscore the cratering in global economies this quarter. The calendar includes the US Jobs Report and Monetary policy meeting from RBA, BOC and ECB.Monday – 01 June 2020 Caixin Manufacturing PMI (CNY, GMT 01:45) – The Caixin manufacturing PMI is expected to slightly improve to 49.6 from 49.4 in May. ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM index is expected to slip to 40.0 in May from 41.5 in April, compared to a recession-low of 34.5 in December of 2008. Tuesday – 02 June 2020   Interest Rate Decision & Statement (RBA, GMT 04:30) – The RBA meet and are unlikely to move rates below historic lows at 0.25%, as RBA Gov. Lowe is his recent statement repeated that negative interest rates extraordinarily unlikely. RBA will maintain its expansionary monetary policies until progress is made towards full employment and we are confident on inflation . Wednesday – 03 June 2020   Gross Domestic Product (AUD, GMT 01:30) – GDP is the economy’s most important figure. Q1’s GDP is expected to slow down at 0.3% q/q and 1.9% y/y. Unemployment data (EUR, GMT 07:55-09:00) – The German unemployment rate in May is expected to have increased to 6.2% from 5.8%, while unemployment change is expected to have declined to 194K from April’s 373K. Meanwhile, Eurozone’s April unemployment rate should rise to 7.7% from 7.4% last month. ADP Employment Change (USD, GMT 12:15) – Lasts month, ADP report revealed a -20,236k April drop that undershot the -19,520k private payroll decline by -716k. For May a -9,000k drop is seen, since nearly all measures of activity rose in May from a trough. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM-NMI index is expected to rise to 46.0 from 41.8 in April. Most producer sentiment reports should show May rebounds after huge April declines due to mandatory closures, on top of the demand hit initially associated with the pandemic, and the oil price plunge with the OPEC price war, as re-openings are underway in most states. The April drop in the ISM survey was much smaller than the declines seen in other measures, however, and this is why we expect a further drop in May for that measure. Interest Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Statement (CAD, GMT 14:00) – On April 15, the Bank held rates steady at 0.25%, matching widespread expectations. In the next policy statement, the BoC is expected to leave rates unchanged, the Bank of Canada Governor Poloz said is his last interview that negative rates are needed only in extreme conditions. Thursday – 04 June 2020   Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference (EUR, GMT 11:45 & 12:30) – Given that Lagarde buried any hope of a “mild” recession, the stage seems set for an extension of the PEPP program in size and duration at next week’s council meeting with an end date next year giving the economy more time to recover and EU aid programs to come into effect. Given that the ECB is no longer putting much hope in a quick recovery it is already clear that with the current time frame until the end of December that would risk a sharp widening of spreads in the second half of the year, when there is also the risk of a second wave of Covid-19 infections. Jobless Claims (USD, GMT 12:30)– US initial jobless claims contracted last week by -323k to 2,123k in the week ended May 23 after tumbling -241k to 2,446k previously. Claims have been declining since surging to 6,867k in the March 27 week. Friday – 05 June 2020   Event of the Week – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD, GMT 12:30) – A -2,200k May nonfarm payroll drop is anticipated, following a -20,527 April collapse, and a -701k drop in March. The jobless rate should rise to 17.5% from 14.7% from April, versus 4.4% in March. Nearly all measures of activity rose in May from a trough just after the April BLS survey week, but the initial and continuing claims data suggest a weaker labor market in mid-May than mid-April. Average hourly earnings are assumed to fall -1.0% with a partial unwind of the April distortion from layoffs being concentrated in low-wage categories. This would translate to a drop in the y/y gain to 6.6% from 7.9%. Labour Market Data (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Canada employment plunged -1993.8k in April, nearly doubling the -1010.7k tumble in March to leave a massive and rapid reversal in the labour market as firms cut jobs as most of the economy ceased to function amid the stay at home orders the began around the middle of March. For May employment should revealed a 4,000k drop in jobs, doubling again last months number. B]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.[/B]Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.