Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Dogpile

Taylor Trading Technique

Recommended Posts

Hello WHY?

 

As you know, I use TC2000 for my eod data - and there is no "ES" symbol. I tried Google and it appears to be a future of some sort relative to the S&P 500 (is that right). I noted where you said the ES had a high of 1529.5 today. I also see the the SP-500 (spx) had a OHLC today of 1516.15 1523.24 1500.46 and 1514.40.

 

Regarding market overall market direction - and/or overall market risk; now that is an area I don't take a backseat to anyone on. I've been keeping point and figure charts by had since 1994, and I am not aware of any system that helps judge overall market risk better than bullish percent charts.

 

Summary: A P&F chart is either on a buy or sell signal. We add up all the buy signals and plot the results on a bullish percent chart. We do this for all the major indexes. These indexes give us a tool to be properly bearish at the tops and bullish at the bottoms. Again, I know of no system that is better at measuring overall risk than bullish percent charts. For those with an interest, I can direct you to various web threads, articles and books. While I do have a burning desire to learn to short term trade via Taylor - and perhaps VSA, nothing will replace guarding my REAL MONEY with point and figure charts. Nothing!

 

Bottom line: The NYSE, Naz, SP-500 etc index bullish percent charts have all recently reversed back into a column of O's. It takes 3 boxes, or 6% of the index stocks signaling new P&F chart sell signals, to reverse from a column of x's to a column of o's. There is a great deal of overall weakness in the market right now. I had previously moved much of my equity mutual funds to the money markets because of earlier weakness. I will be moving even more now. The bullish percent charts - and a few others - are just flat signaling weakness.

 

I know I'm dead right on this. As Tom Dorsey says - "What is -- is". You can't hide price, and price on p&f charts is falling and sell signals are dominating the market.

 

Gary Fox

 

 

Ravin,

 

What is your take on ES today. If you look at the last 3 or 4 daily bars how do we look for 10-26? Bullish, bearish, sideways? From a VSA standpoint.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GE 10-25 was a buy day. It open, traded up and then down. Presented an opportunity to short and to go long. Tomm 10-26 is a sell day. Sell those longs aquired on 10-25 on any penetration of 40.40 or around 40.55 if possible but watch closley as it is a bit weak and may not make the selling day objective which is 40.55

 

GNTA for 10-26 - Sell day - Possible BV. Go long on any decline under 1.05. sell longs on any rally back to 1.05 or penetration there of.

 

 

POTP - 10-26 - buy day- Go long near .32 or .33 sell around .37 or more.

 

 

SNUS - 10-26 - sell day - Possible BV. Buy on on any declien early in the seeion under .51 once the decline stops. Sell the long same day near .51 or any pentration of .51

 

 

MZC - 10-26 SS day short if early in session makes high. Short at 1.18 to 1.20 cover same day 1.14 to 1.15

 

CNXT- 10-26 - sell day - possible BV early in the session look to buy long on any decline under 1.17 and sell longs same day on any rally to or thru 1.17-1.18.

 

See how it goes tomm.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hello WHY?

 

As you know, I use TC2000 for my eod data - and there is no "ES" symbol. I tried Google and it appears to be a future of some sort relative to the S&P 500 (is that right). I noted where you said the ES had a high of 1529.5 today. I also see the the SP-500 (spx) had a OHLC today of 1516.15 1523.24 1500.46 and 1514.40.

 

Regarding market overall market direction - and/or overall market risk; now that is an area I don't take a backseat to anyone on. I've been keeping point and figure charts by had since 1994, and I am not aware of any system that helps judge overall market risk better than bullish percent charts.

 

Summary: A P&F chart is either on a buy or sell signal. We add up all the buy signals and plot the results on a bullish percent chart. We do this for all the major indexes. These indexes give us a tool to be properly bearish at the tops and bullish at the bottoms. Again, I know of no system that is better at measuring overall risk than bullish percent charts. For those with an interest, I can direct you to various web threads, articles and books. While I do have a burning desire to learn to short term trade via Taylor - and perhaps VSA, nothing will replace guarding my REAL MONEY with point and figure charts. Nothing!

 

Bottom line: The NYSE, Naz, SP-500 etc index bullish percent charts have all recently reversed back into a column of O's. It takes 3 boxes, or 6% of the index stocks signaling new P&F chart sell signals, to reverse from a column of x's to a column of o's. There is a great deal of overall weakness in the market right now. I had previously moved much of my equity mutual funds to the money markets because of earlier weakness. I will be moving even more now. The bullish percent charts - and a few others - are just flat signaling weakness.

 

I know I'm dead right on this. As Tom Dorsey says - "What is -- is". You can't hide price, and price on p&f charts is falling and sell signals are dominating the market.

 

Gary Fox

Me thinks the market is weak also. However, we must be heads up for when it turns. The ES is the futures contract (december contract) on S&P. Just google futures charts and you will find some place that will let you see the charts for it. Like you say Tc2000 doesn't have it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I do see great potential in correlating VSA wiuth Taylor. I am working on that. Yes, 10-26 will be an SS day.

 

You just can't take what the days action was for each day and then try to fit that into the cycle. The cycle is first. The actions are last. Almost everyone trys to make it a buy day or a sale day after the fact. . It won't work. I am telling you it won't work. You will finally throw your hand up in despair. People try to construct the ideal cycle by looking at each day after the close and seeing what day of the cycle it BEST expressed. I guess their thinking is you gotta make the ideal day. The problem: . Determine the cycle and follow it. You will be pleasantly surprised how easy it becomes..

 

Greatly appreciate your detailed explanation. You are so right, in the beginning we all have this tendency to look for ideal buy, sell days.

Prior to my VSA days, I was into index trading, stocks etc , EOD and intraday charts, multiple monitors, the desktop look very impressive, with all the calculations from Linda Raschke's ROC, Pinball buy, etc, umpteen horizontal lines on the multiple charts, ended up with information overload and analysis paralysis.

Now I have learnt to keep it simple, one can make a good living by focussing on a few setups , trade a few hours during times of liquidity and increase size. I only trade Dow and Dax and no longer have EOD charts, however 120min or 240min charts provide the necessary support and resistance levels to work from and observe the price action/vol at those relevant prices.

 

I have read about Taylors method in Linda's book and also in Angell but your posts on this thread are the first which highlighted the play of Smart Money and it was that which drew my attention , as you know market manipulation is at the core of VSA.

 

So coming back to that, you have emphasized the need to determine the cycle. As I have not slogged through Taylor's book, I would have to request you to elaborate on that, how do I do that. 10-24 was a buy day, 10-25 was a sell day, so 10-26 is a SS day, I will try to follow up from Monday with this line of analysis, hope you will take out time to guide for a week or so, at least that way it would be possible to get some insights and as you say be pleasantly surprised:)

it was very much the same way with VSA, in the beginning it can mess you up as we are so much used to the traditional way of thinking and looking for buy and sell signals via price based indicators.

 

will reply to your query on Fridays take via VSA separately

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
You know you may be right. The best we can do is try to anticipate. I would like to know why you think it is strong at this moment, if you would care to divulge that. I would be happy to divulge and tell you why I think it is weak.

Why?

I posted my views recently in the folowing two threads, you can get a glimpse of my method there:

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f2/are-low-volume-rallies-here-to-2514.html

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f6/es-trading-for-10-15-thru-2641.html

 

There has been a total lack of participation from members in this forum in those two threads. Even in my Low Volume thread, not a single VSA guy stepped forward. Is there a problem with my eyesight ? VSA thread has 30,000+ views ???

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Ravin,

 

What is your take on ES today. If you look at the last 3 or 4 daily bars how do we look for 10-26? Bullish, bearish, sideways? From a VSA standpoint.

 

As I mentioned previously I used to engage in all this next day forecasting via EOD charts, even had a couple of subscriptions for ES trading, proved counterproductive for me , as it formed a bias in my mind and found difficult to detach from that. I do not use those anymore, however 45/60/120min charts provide previous 10-12 days of action in view from which I am able to gather enough info. for intraday trading i.e support/resitance, fib numbers, high/low of previous 2days, daily pivots etc and then it remains for the market to show its hand.

The market is always right and the price/vol provide the necessary info. during intraday on lower time frames i.e 15/5min at these relevant levels on which action to take.

 

As for today, I have attached 45min YM charts , as this is a TTT thread, don't want to get into VSA in depth, however you have highlighted the market manipulation component in TTT methodology, and in that sense there is a synergy with VSA analysis.

 

1. Have to learn to combine vol, with price patterns (red arrows on chart 1)

 

2. Red arrows point to resistance levels on chart 2. There is a confluence of resistance levels. i.e Fib retracements of the fall from 11th oct - 22nd Oct of nearly 600pts. plus the resistance offerred by upper trend line of the trend channel (blue) and the high of Yesterday. Tom Williams emphasizes the need to employ previous levels of support and resistance in reading via VSA.

 

3. Hence there is a lot of supply to work through, above there is the gap of 19th and then massive supply at higher levels.

 

4. So obviously there is weakness there. However the pros. are not all going to decide to go short because these lines are there on Ravin's Computer charts:) There might be syndicates on sidelines with different agenda who have yet to show their hand, hence I remain totally flexible.

 

5. The 15min chart shows the interplay between price patterns and vol with greater clarity.

 

However this is no way diminishes the value of TTT method as it also takes in account market manipulation and would provide added confidence if the right setup exhibits itself and is consistent with the EOD analysis, one can then enter with size.

 

Anyway this is my personal way of trading, each has to find an edge which they can exploit, there is no right or wrong way.

5aa70e15a2659_YM45Min-volpeaksatturns.thumb.jpg.aa5139ec86148cc2935be52604c2684b.jpg

5aa70e15a964a_YM45Min-Resistancelevels.thumb.jpg.faf47ff160263a978967334f675ff8b8.jpg

5aa70e15b012c_YM15min-PricePatternsandVol..thumb.jpg.7c812ae644ddfdbca9ac4e19ea7a0665.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

hi all,

 

I am not really 'counting' Taylor days so much as watching tests of highs and lows. I have a few oscillators I watch and I keep my trades in line with those keeping mindful of good price zones to execute longs and shorts in terms of support/resistance.

 

Here is how I see it for now:

 

Last Thursday 10/18, we closed with a narrow bar that indicated 'balance' -- you look for a potential strong directional move with this type of set-up. Friday we got that day. But note the location. We gapped down and trended down & away from 1547.00. This indicates strong conviction by 'Big Money'. Lower prices encouraged MORE selling, indicating that the market needed to unload shares as its 'inventory' was 'too long'...

 

The important thing about last Friday now is that a 'high volume zone' occured with the largest volume occuring at 1530.00. Since that time, a lot of volume has built up down at 1503-1505, indicating strong buyers down there. We tested 1530.00 yesterday. As I mentioned, we did this yesterday morning after we had already had 3 consecutive days of 'low to high' trading (where the lowest 'bar' of the day occus BEFORE the highest bar of the day). After 3 in one direction and facing stiff resistance at 1530.00, guess what happened: We went and tested 1530.00 and price stopped at 1529.75 and reversed hard. This formed a 'high to low' trading day (highest bar of day occurs BEFORE lowest bar of day).

 

Thus, the 'expectation' was for yesterdays test of 1530 to fail. And it did. It didn't HAVE to, but that seemed to be the odds-play.

 

Since that test, the market attempted down and this move was rejected as the S&P futures bottomed in the same price zone (1505) that saw buying interest on Mon 10/22 and Wed 10/24. There has been a lot of buying 1503 - 1505. Thus, on Thursday we formed a 'Higher Low'. This is the most important data point of any, I think.

 

Linda Rashke thinks the essence of Taylor is to watch and analyze price action at previous highs and lows. Violations/failures of highs and lows are very important. Higher lows and lower highs are also very important. To me, yesterdays 'Higher Low' vs Wednesday is the very important data point that Rashke would highlight.

 

We built up a lot of volume at 1503 and 1505 earlier in the week (buyers) and then formed a higher low vs that level yesterday.

 

Seperately, note that we have 3 closes very close to each other over the last 3 days:

1525.00

1522.00

1524.50

 

We do have a fed meeting next week so we might need to get beyond that to breakout but my expectation would be for a close 'away' from 1524.00 today-- implying we could get a good, driectional move. Confirming this is the fact we have low 15-min ADX and a potential catalyst in Countrywide (CFC) earnings due out this morning. Be aware of potential for a directional move today -- but be careful of entering in the high-volume zones if trying to 'go-with' momentum -- as it is easy to get 'chopped up' if you are not careful on your location. Best set-up would be a strong momentum move and a pullback that does NOT require entering right in the heart of a chop-chop zone.

5aa70e15b427e_PVPSummaryEndedOct252007.png.032f737d501073b42b8a2f96f7ebfc2b.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Quote:

 

 

Also, maybe as a project Dogpile and WHY? could try to agree on the stage of the cycle as we go, day by day. It would be great to learn this stuff real time.

 

 

"I think we calculate the day differently. I don't understand how he does it and I can't tell him how I do it."

 

WHY? - - I don't understand why you can't tell him how you do it. What is the point of this thread? I am inclined to agree with Dogpile's comments about just watching the high and low tests - but who needs Taylor for this?

 

I suggest that this thread needs some direction and someone to take the initiative. WHY? seems to have some software that outlines the Taylor method, assuming you understand it, how about taking the lead on this thread and adding some value instead of "I don't understand how he does it and I can't tell him how I do it."

 

We are here to learn a method of establishing a point of reference in the market, Taylor seems to offer this. The idea of a 3 day cycle does have merit, when it is valid, what we are all looking for is an objective method of determining:

 

where we are in the cycle, or is there actually a cycle intact?

 

Maybe WHY? you could change your name to WHYNOT?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
WHY? - - I don't understand why you can't tell him how you do it. What is the point of this thread? I am inclined to agree with Dogpile's comments about just watching the high and low tests - but who needs Taylor for this?
To answer that I refer you to my post #115

 

I suggest that this thread needs some direction and someone to take the initiative. WHY? seems to have some software that outlines the Taylor method, assuming you understand it, how about taking the lead on this thread and adding some value instead of "I don't understand how he does it and I can't tell him how I do it."
I thought I had added some value. I have made several detailed posts on Taylor. Show me any other forum that has such detailed explanations of taylor?? Sorry you feel differently. Taylor is a simple but complicated method. Sounds like a paradox...I know. I have attempted to explain ALOT of Taylor that would take many of you months and perhaps years to dig out of his book because of his writing style. Why would I just come up and say openly "this is the way my software calculates the days of the cycle". I am not stupid. I know where the key point is in the whole scheme of the taylor trading method. I am not the brightest around, that is for sure, but it has taken me years to get this down (my software was first written in 2000) and has been adapted as necessary since then. Why should I just say ...ok guys my software calculates the days this way______________? I am contemplating possibly selling my software. I do not know if I will sell it yet but am thinking of doing it. If not, I may just give it away. But even then I won't be won't be telling anybody..."this is the exact way it calculates the cycle" and I won't be just handing out my code. Why should I just give away what has taken me years to develop and somebody else just program it up and sell it themselves?

 

We are here to learn a method of establishing a point of reference in the market, Taylor seems to offer this. The idea of a 3 day cycle does have merit, when it is valid, what we are all looking for is an objective method of determining:
There again I repeat in different words. It is ALWAYS valid. There are variations but all larger declines and rallies have many cycles in them. A simple glance at any daily chart will reveal that. There are variations to how that those cycles are made but all is covered in taylors book. Don't fit the day into the cycle. Find the cycle and the days will fit in with all their variations.

 

 

Maybe WHY? you could change your name to WHYNOT?
Won't because I'm not a dummy!:helloooo:

 

Guys I think it is time I slide off this thread. Hope someone has been helped by some of my posts. It was interesting to see how others adapt Taylor. Can't say I agree with all of it but each has to "float his own boat". I have enjoyed it alot. Read the book. You will find most all your answers there in the book.

 

I may post some thinking on todays market action later in the evening.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
To answer that I refer you to my post #115

 

I thought I had added some value. I have made several detailed posts on Taylor. Show me any other forum that has such detailed explanations of taylor?? Sorry you feel differently.

Guys I think it is time I slide off this thread.

 

I think you have made an invaluable contribution on a subject that most find it difficult and frustrating to come to terms with including me. Some may lose patience and then the inevitable confrontation. It would be a great shame if you decided to depart, I was hoping we could work over a week or two and take each day to develop some synergy between TT and VSA.

Hope you would be gracious enough to overlook some adverse remarks against your efforts.

 

Back to YM:

Despite the apparent bullish fundamentals, positive advance/decline, and Trin aroud 0.7-0.8, market ran into resistances outlined before. and that coupled with a SS day on TT (Hats off to you WHY?) The short was on YM 5min chart and pivot resistance which lined up with others, with a 50pt move in favour of the trade.

5aa70e15c6d4a_YM45MIN-KEYBARATRESISTANCE.thumb.jpg.df90d4bd829af77f6bd5cccccac87ab2.jpg

5aa70e15cd43b_YM5MIN-WEAKNESSATRESISTANCE.thumb.jpg.99cf698891b571d88d0fb54bb8117b28.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I might just say that from the open ..shorting ES at around 1534 would give you a profit of say 7 or 8 pts already as the low has been 1526.00. However, this decline has been for the most part grudgingly. Perhaps it is best not to follow it too far. While the bottom could fall out, it may retrace.

 

Here we are on an SS day after a nice setup on the previous day (sell day 10-25 for a SS day) with a decent profit, by capturing the main trend of the day. Again, Taylor was about getting a goodly slice of that main trend.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just a word on GE and the other picks I made:

 

GE - I said in my previous post that 10-26 was sell day. The idea was to sell the longs purchased on the previous day (10-25 - buy day). It opened, traded up, jerked down, but not enough to take out your stopless (depending on where you set it) and then right away traded up to 40.50 just shy of the target 40.55. I indicated it might not reach the target. Came close though. A little after 10:00 and you would be out of the market. Anyway, that was the time to dump your longs unless you decided to do it sooner right after the opening when it went to 40.43. So one is now out with a nice profit.

 

GNTA- It did the unexpected. Open high, not low, and didn't make any BV early in the session. When that happens you can do one of two things. Enter the new data in for a new intraday forecast or just or pass on the play. With penny stocks it is imperative they do as expected or forget it. No play unless you get a new forecast.

 

POTP - Buy day -long at .31 out at .34 just too slow of a rally to hang on for more.

 

SNUS - Sell day - Made a BV but it wasnt enough to bother with - no play

 

MCZ - SS day - Gapped up on the open. No play. This is why with pennies you always want to see the open first. Usualy best to pas but if so inclined one can enter the new data in and get an intraday forecast.

 

CNXT - sell day - Came close to making a BV right after the open but didn't - no play.

 

So, in the pennies only one play materialized today using Taylor. And GE gave a potentially profitable play almost as well as an ideal sell day.

 

I might say this, when trading the pennies using Taylor, generally you want about 20 or more pennies you are watching live on a streamer when the market opens. Before the open you should have already done the taylor analysis and know what you are looking for. Those that have price action that allows using taylor strategy (aren't too far away from the ideal pattern for that day) are those that you look at when considering taking a position. Out of the 20 if you end up with 5 to 8 to trade on and can manage 10,000 shares in each and capture .02 to .04 each share..well you get the idea some fairly good money can be made using Taylor to daytrade the pennies.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I think you have made an invaluable contribution on a subject that most find it difficult and frustrating to come to terms with including me. Some may lose patience and then the inevitable confrontation. It would be a great shame if you decided to depart, I was hoping we could work over a week or two and take each day to develop some synergy between TT and VSA.
Thanks for your comments. I would like to work together with you on TT and VSA. I'll get back with you. It will be a few days.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Thanks for your comments. I would like to work together with you on TT and VSA. I'll get back with you. It will be a few days.

 

LOOK FORWARD TO THAT

 

As you so aptly put it aim to capture the meat of the move.

However it is not necessary to get wedded to the initial bias, afterall the market is always right.

 

attached, YM 45min , shows the initial fall and then support at the 38.2% level which previously was a resistance.

The YM 5min flags up the setup (down move followed by a test on low vol) to go long if you so wish, others players have stepped in to buy, there is nothing right or wrong about it. Just go with the flow.

 

YM 3min exhibits this aspect even better with the classic heavy vol on a down bar with similar vol on a dragonfly indicating entry of demand offering a low risk, high probability trading opportunity especially around the lunch period where we often observe reversals.

5aa70e15d42a3_YM45MIN-SUPPORT.thumb.jpg.cce4cb2ffbe5a21ff9be90efb0b5d17b.jpg

5aa70e15daa5d_YM5MIN-TEST.thumb.jpg.157266e7266db357ae0c36cd4e4bd8a4.jpg

5aa70e15e1c23_YM3min-setup.thumb.jpg.3c00bc245e6a88d9beff2d82f03c6598.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks like we were both right OAC for today. IT was weak early in the session giving the ss day a profit. Then rallied back and finished strong.

 

Have a good weekend!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

in my pre-open post this morning, I mentioned:

1) the importance of Thursdays 'Higher Low'

2) the potential for a directional move today given 3 closes that were close to each other and low 15-min ADX

3) the importance of the 1530.00 pivot

4) the important buying that had occured in the 1503-1505 zone

 

In retrospect, this analysis was pretty good. You might ask, 'well how much money did you make today Dog?".... Well, I didn't make much.

 

It is really amazing how the market can obey many of the core principles you believe in and still be so complex. The fact is that I was actually up a lot of money today but decided to play for a bigger win by scalping out of partials and trailing stops with breakeven sell-stop orders.

 

The complexity today arose out of the size of the opening gap. It was massive. We built value at 1518.50 on Thursday and opened nearly 20 pts above that. I decided that I wanted to go long on a test of 1530.00 as that would provide support. Well it did and the market bounced up -- and looked like it was set for lift-off. But it wasn't ready yet - for whatever reason. I stopped on my remaining position during the 10:45am EST 15-min bar (for breakeven). Price continued down for another 90 minutes and went BELOW 1530 to flush out any remaining stop-loss orders before rejecting that in a 'bear trap' --- by printing a 'buying tail' that stretched below 1530 -- and then grinding up the rest of the day. The day ended up making its highest bar for the day AFTER the lowest bar was made for what was a 'low to high' day.

 

Thus, I was bullish coming into the day. I was looking for a close far away from the last 3 closes near 1524.00 -- and we closed +18pts vs that level. All of that yet I made what amounted to a few small scalps.

 

Linda Rashke talks about trading in her book like one is fishing. Most of the time, you catch small ones. Occassionally, things line up and you catch a big one. Today was a 'small one' day. I was dead right on the 'structure' but it still managed to be tricky enough to not allow the 'big one' to be caught. Those S&Ps are tricky, man. Time for a drink. Let's get em next week.

5aa70e1645cd1_Oct26FinalAnalysis.png.3c44006b2d9cdccf08677ad7f4055097.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Looks like we were both right OAC for today. IT was weak early in the session giving the ss day a profit. Then rallied back and finished strong.

 

Have a good weekend!

 

Hehe, Why?

You don't take a backseat to no one.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Have a good weekend people. I am sliding off this thread. May your days be filled with profitible trades and may you enjoy life and find success in what you do. Hasta la vista.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

<<Didn't you pay attention to Thursday's VAH ?>>

 

yes but going long there was under the 1530 resistance zone. playing long there would be in expectation of a trap -- not something I generally do. I am a 'go with' the short-term momentum type and my oscillators made momentum lows there. Clearly, not a great spot to short since the oscillators were quite depressed at that point -- but also a difficult long entry -- I just skipped it altogether. This type of price action is consistent with low-ADX environment -- which is not really my sweet spot in terms of trading strengths. I prefer less 'bar overlap' tradign environment (expanding ADX). You are right though in that it would have been good entry from pure price perspective -- just didn't line up with my kind of trading. hope you caught it.

 

I have found those multi-hour type of bull-flag formations like we had pre-lunch today to be a bit difficult. I went long later on when it opened up a bit, getting away from 1530 and showed bullish action after testing VWAP. But even there I did the wrong contract -- making a small amount on long-NQ when I should have been in ES or RUS, which moved a lot. NQ was the only one NOT to trade low to high today -- so that was a bit frustrating to only make a little by choosing the wrong contract. ah well, just one of those days where can't seem to quite nail it. I had a mega-day on Wednesday.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I did a video on a few Taylor type of concepts. the quality didn't come out so good but I think its understandable.

 

The chart is a 15-min Chart of S&P Futures (ES)... comments welcome:

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • TPO chart shows important zones (levels) like POC, singles, value area). With Volume profiles we'll get information about volume distribution https://www.quantower.com/blog/tpo-profile-chart-and-trading-on-bitmex https://www.quantower.com/blog/trade-with-alpaca-markets-via-quantower#tpo-profile-chart-got-more-features-and-improvements also, we're discussing trading with TPO chart, VWAp, Volume profiles in Quantower Futures Trading group https://t.me/quantower_futures
    • Date : 23rd January 2020. How To Improve Your Trading Mindset 23rd January 2020.Our Head Market Analyst, Stuart, explains how to improve your Trading Mindset. Understand the importance of emotional control and discipline through an unmissable Q&A session.Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Bitcoin: Upcoming Halving And What To Expect Bitcoin’s upcoming halving will be one of the most followed crypto-related occasions in the year 2020. Thousands of cryptocurrency enthusiasts will be observing the markets eagerly to witness what effect this year’s halving will have on the cryptocurrency. Many believe that the occasion would have a positive effect on BTC’s price as has been observed in the past. On the other hand, some are expecting the price to drop dramatically after the occasion. Whatever the result may be, it is apparent that this occasion will be a defining juncture for Bitcoin. In this review, we breakdown what the Bitcoin halving is all about, some effects of this occasion, historic occurrences, and what to anticipate from this year’s halving occurrence. Bitcoin was built on a system that mandates regular halving (also known as Halvenings) to sustain its value. The halvings are programmed to happen every 4 years. Already, Bitcoin has witnessed two halving processes, the first in 2012, and the other in 2016. The next halving process is scheduled for the 20th of May 2020. Bitcoin’s Value Preserving Strategy Bitcoin runs on a deflationary economic model which ensures that over time, lesser and lesser Bitcoin tokens will be created until finally, the creation of new Bitcoin tokens will end. BTC’s total supply is capped at 21 million, meaning that it is impossible to have more than that exact number of Bitcoin token in circulation at any point in time. It has been estimated that the very last Bitcoin token will be mined in the year 2140. Bitcoin’s deflationary model predisposes it to scarcity which increases in demand, thereby causing its value to increase as well. This model is different from traditional fiat which is based on an inflationary model, this means that banks can instruct for the printing of more banknotes at will. This is not an ideal practice per se as a boost in the volume of banknotes in circulation could result in the devaluation of that currency. Bitcoin’s “Block Reward” System New Bitcoin tokens are pumped into the market through a popular process known as cryptocurrency “mining”. Bitcoin miners get rewarded with a Bitcoin “block” allotment every time they successfully solve transactions. The blocks are allotted by the Bitcoin algorithm. The block rewarding process happens every ten minutes. So in fact, ten minutes from this moment, new Bitcoin tokens will be created. Mining is not an easy process. It requires a certain level of expertise, specific hardware, and a serious quantity of electricity. After the inception of Bitcoin, the first mining reward was fifty Bitcoin. This meant that every ten minutes, a Bitcoin miner received fifty Bitcoin tokens for solving transactions. That number has since been halved, twice, and is now at 12.5 Bitcoin token per block reward. By May this year, the halving will bring that figure down to 6.25 Bitcoin token per block reward. This feature has been pre-programmed into Bitcoin’s system. What This Could Mean for Mining Lesser block rewards are not the only reason Bitcoin is scarce. It has gotten significantly harder to mine Bitcoin and receive rewards. This is because mining is now more difficult as more miners are entering the system thereby increasing competition. Consequently, an increase in competition means miners require more sophisticated tools to solve cryptographic Algos. Over the years, miners have created what is known as “mining pools” to better handle the rising competition of mining. Mining pools are a network of miners, collectively working towards achieving block rewards. Block rewards in mining pools are distributed according to the percentage of effort put into earning a block. Improved Stock-To-Flow Ratio Halvings have several profitable impacts on Bitcoin. One such effect is that it boosts the Stock-To-Flow ratio of Bitcoin. A commodity’s STF ratio is calculated by dividing the quantity of the asset held in reserves, by the quantity manufactured in a year. The greater the STF ratio, the lesser the annual inflation on that asset. Commodities like gold possess a very impressive STF ratio as its available quantity is limited. Presently, Bitcoin has a significantly lesser STF ratio, unlike gold. Regardless, more halving occasions will boost the Bitcoin’s STF ratio. It is even believed that someday, Bitcoin will surpass gold in the STF ratio rating and will be an even better store of value. This is probably why Bitcoin is dubbed “digital gold”. After-Effects of Previous Halvenings 2012’s Halving The first Bitcoin halving happened on the 28th of November. On that day, the cryptocurrency recorded a 6.5% trade range. Regardless, to the surprise of many, the price remained at a consolidated state months after the occasion. This was partly because Bitcoin was still in its infancy and so, not many people were engaged with it. Also, media coverage at the time was not what it is today, which means many people were not informed of what was going on. Based on the information on Bitcoin’s BNC Liquid Index, the price of BTC attained a high of about $32 on the 8th of June 2011. The price of BTC never broke above the $32 mark until the 28th of February 2013 (4 months later), where price witnessed a climb to $260 after which a drop was experienced and the price stayed below that level for several months. Fast forward to the 30th of November 2013 (close to a year after the 2012 halving), Bitcoin rallied dramatically and peaked at $1,167, which was a whopping 9,686% increase from the initial price of $11 on halving. 2016’s Halving On the 9th of July 2016, the second halving, the price peaked at $664 but did not maintain that uptrend instead fell to $626 on the same day. Subsequently, the price continued on that downward trajectory for about three months. However, things started looking up for Bitcoin from the 27th of October 2016 when price closed above the previous halving’s high of $664. Bitcoin later proceeded to smash its last all-time high of $1,167 on the 23rd of February 2017. This spike started the famous bull rally of 2017 through 2018, which witnessed a peak at $20,000 sometime in December 2017. 2016’s halving shot Bitcoin’s price from $664 to $20,000 which was a growth of 2,912%. Possible Outcomes of this Year’s Halving? In the crypto sector, the Bitcoin halving is undoubtedly among the most talked-about and anticipated occasions of the year. Presently, there are mixed expectations as to what the outcome of the 2020 halving may be. Many in the crypto sector are very optimistic and believe that, just as in the past, the price will soar dramatically either before or after the occasion. Creator of Kraken, Jesse Powell expects the price of Bitcoin to rise close to $100k or 1 million after the halving. The CTO of Morgan Creek Digital Assets also shares the belief of Jesse and expects Bitcoin to reach the $100,000 mark by 2021. He says that scarcity is a driving force for the demand of any commodity. He explains that the 2020 halving will cause Bitcoin to be more scarce. Other crypto players believe that this year’s occasion will not have a similar trajectory with past occasions and would, instead, mar the price of Bitcoin. Another possible scenario that has been observed over time is the “buy and dump” case. This scenario usually plays out when there is a highly anticipated occurrence. It works exceptionally well when the upcoming occasion is sure to have a quantifiable effect on supply and demand dynamics. The price of the asset in question experiences a huge spike just days or a few weeks to the main event. This transpires because investors stock up on the asset towards the event. After the event, however, the price of the said asset drops significantly. This kind of activity has transpired frequently in the cryptocurrency space. One such occasion was the Bitcoin futures trading releases for the CBOE and CME. Just a few days to the CME’s release, the price of Bitcoin rallied from $6,400 and peaked close to its all-time high of $20,000 in a day. Not surprisingly, the price dropped considerably in the period that followed those releases. Furthermore, some cryptocurrency experts believe that the aftermath of the halving has already been priced in. It has been observed that demand is “missing” in the Bitcoin market, this could be a clear indication that the halving has been priced in. Usually, months before a halving, a boost in demand and price of Bitcoin is always noticeable. This time, however, no increase can be observed in neither of the stated areas. In this case, it could lead to a lateral trading period which might be a good thing for traders. At the moment, Bitcoin is still struggling to break above the $7,200 mark and there are no signs of a reversal happening soon. Whatever the result may be one thing is for sure, the price of Bitcoin is set to experience drastic changes this year.   Source: https://learn2.trade 
    • Your All-Round Guide To Security Token Offerings Security token offerings (STOs) are one of the most revered investment options in the crypto space at the moment. It has even been termed the “future of fundraising”. But what exactly are STOs and what is the rave all about? This article aims to break down STOs, what it is all about, and how it can be beneficial to you. What Exactly is a Security Token Offering? STOs, simply put, provide a means of tokenizing fungible financial assets such as stocks, bonds, and REITs, and introduces the tokens to the public through regulated channels. STOs are a lot like ICOs as they generally involve the same processes. However, the differentiating factor between STOs and ICOs is in the tokens being sold. With ICOs, the tokens are usually non-descriptive and could range from anything digital currencies to utility tokens. With STOs however, the token is a “security”, meaning that it is exchangeable and possesses a set monetary value. Breakdown of Security Tokens Security tokens function as digital versions of the assets they represent. Here’s a list of some popular security token representations: 1- Capital markets: Firms can convert their shares into tokens, allowing investors to own parts of the firm. In some cases, owners of tokens receive dividends and can execute votes on the affairs of the firm. 2- Equity funds: Equity funds can also tokenize their shares for sale. 3- Commodities: Commodities like gold, natural gas, coffee can be tokenized. 4- Real estate: The equity of this asset class can be tokenized, much like how REITs function. STOs do not change the underlying securities, instead, it makes these assets more readily accessible on a digital platform. Unlike other digital assets, security tokens can only be traded on certain regulated exchanges. Some exchanges require interested investors to meet some set qualifications. Advantages of STOs STOs are formulated with regulatory-compliance in mind, unlike ordinary token sales. Security tokens provide its owners with several legally binding rights. Some security tokens even bestow its owners with rights to dividends or other defined streams of income. Security tokens are also beneficial to their issuers. From the onset, the entities issuing the tokens are aware that their tokens are being purchased by accredited and verified investors and so, they don’t have to worry about the credibility of their investors. Other advantages of STOs include: 1- It is adequately regulated: Entities issuing security tokens must operate under the guidance of designated regulatory agencies in the region like SECs and FTCs. 2- You can rest assured that STOs won’t falter in the future: Unlike ICOs that cannot be guaranteed, STOs are sure to always deliver because it is properly regulated. 3- STOs offer great convenience: Procuring security tokens is easy, straightforward, and stress-free. All you need to do is to adhere to the STO requirement in your jurisdiction and you’re good to go. 4- It can be programmed: Security tokens are programmable and can be facilitated by smart contracts. 5- Automated dividend disbursement and voting: Some security tokens are structured to send dividends automatically through smart contracts. Also, some security tokens provide the bearer with exclusive voting rights in the affairs of the entity offering the tokens. 6- It is a globally accessible investment vehicle: Investors across the globe can procure security tokens regardless of their location. 7- It is not susceptible to manipulation: Considering the mode of operation STOs are run by, big players cannot manipulate its movements. 8- STOs are very liquid: It is a very promising investment option as it has an impressive liquidity quality and can be traded easily. With benefits like these, STOs are for sure transforming the fundamentals of the financial sphere. Disadvantages of STOs As with every other form of investment, security tokens has its limitations and shortcomings. Some of these limits are: 1- It is considerably more costly than utility tokens: STOs, unlike ICOs, hosts many organizations in their fundraising campaigns. Also, regulatory fees are not cheap which makes it more capital-intensive to host STOs. 2- Investor Qualifications: Countries like the US have certain qualifications an investor has to scale before becoming eligible to engage STOs. According to the SEC to be an “Accredited investor”, you must have an annual income rate of $200k and above or a minimum of $1 million in the bank. 3- Specific trading conditions: STOs can only be traded on certain designated exchanges. Also, these tokens are time-bound meaning that you are allowed to trade these tokens between investors for a set period after the STO. The Howey Test Usually, tokens are said to be securities, by law, when they pass certain thresholds. One such way to identify a security instrument is by applying the “Howey Test”. But first, let’s look at a piece of quick background information on how the Howey test came to be. In 1944, a citrus plantation called the Howey company of Florida leased out a large portion of its land to several investors in a bid to raise funds for much-needed developments. The buyers of the land were not skilled or versed in citrus farming in any way and decided instead to just be “speculators” and let the experts do their jobs. The lease was made on the premise that profits would be generated for the investors by the lessor. Not long after the business transaction the Howey company was sanctioned and accused by the United States SEC of failing to register the sale with the authority. The SEC maintained that the company was dealing with unregistered security. Howey denied the claims however, assuring that what it offered wasn’t a security. After much debate, the case ended up in the Supreme Court, which later ruled in favor of the SEC that Howey’s land leasing were undoubtedly securities. It remarked that investors were purchasing land mainly because they saw an opportunity to make a profit off the deal. Howey was then ordered to register the sale. This was the story of the enactment of the Howey test. Today, per the Howey test, anything is deemed to be a security if it satisfies the following criteria: 1- The investment included money. 2- The investment was made on an enterprise. 3- Profit will be made from the efforts of the providers of the investment. The Howey test has become a stronghold name in the crypto space. In 2017 and 2018 (during the “Heydey boom”), many ICO providers were completely consumed with scaling the Howey test as it was a major determinant used in ascertaining the legality of an ICO by the SEC. Failure to pass the test meant the offering was illegal and was sanctioned by the authorities. Some ICOs even advertised their tokens as investment instruments that had no value, describing their tokens as “utilities” used only for interactions on the platform. The Inception of STOs The very first STO was released by Blockchain Capital on the 10th of April 2017. The release pooled about $10 million in one day. Several STOs have been released following the first event including tZero, Sharespost, Aspen Coin, Quadrant Biosciences, and many more. STOs have since gained widespread acceptance and relevance in today’s market. Understanding the Distinction Between Security Tokens and Tokenized Security Confusing security token for tokenized securities is a common trap that people fall into. The main distinction between the two is that the former is usually a recently issued token that functions on a distributed ledger system while the latter is just a digital manifestation of pre-existing financial instruments. Apart from similarities in appearance and nomenclature, security tokens have absolutely nothing in common with tokenized securities. What Entities are Involved in an STO Issuance? Assuming a business entity plans on issuing security tokens as an embodiment of equity in its establishment, the next necessary step for that business would be to involve certain players and follow certain directives. It has to formally contact an issuance platform to serve as a medium for issuing the tokens. Popular issuance platforms include Polymath and Harbor, which consist of service providers like custodians, broker-dealers, and legal entities to carry out secure processes. Who Can Invest in STOs? STOs are available to the general public for the taking, regardless of location. However, as mentioned previously, the US has certain rules guiding STO investments. In the US, it is mandatory to be an “accredited investor” before you can invest in this instrument. An accredited investor is an individual with an annual cash flow of $200k and above for at least 2 years or a net worth of $1 million and above. More nations are starting to adopt the United States’ classification method and have begun restricting certain classes from investing in STOs. It is advisable to always research on the STO rules and regulations of the jurisdiction you’re planning on investing with. Final Word STOs provide businesses with the prospect of raising funds in an easy and regulated setting. It gives both investors and issuers a good deal of benefits, while also ensuring insurances against fraudulent or malicious practices, unlike ICOs. Issuers are not limited to any industry, they can vary from several sectors including real estate, VC firms, and small and medium enterprises. Moving forward, we will likely witness prominent firms venture into the STOs.   Source: https://learn2.trade 
    • PocketOption Broker - 50$ Binary Options No Deposit Bonus - https://1binaryoptions.eu/review/pocket-option/ USA, EU, & WorldWide Customers Welcome Daily 250$ Binary Options FREE ENTRY Trading Tournament
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.